Kernel-based Mapping of Meteorological Fields in Complex Orography

Due to the advances in sensor networks and remote sensing technologies, the acquisition and storage rates of meteorological and climatological data increases every day and ask for novel and efficient processing algorithms. A fundamental problem of data analysis and modeling is the spatial prediction of meteorological variables in complex orography, which serves among others to extended climatological analyses, for the assimilation of data into numerical weather prediction models, for preparing inputs to hydrological models and for real time monitoring and short-term forecasting of weather.In this thesis, a new framework for spatial estimation is proposed by taking advantage of a class of algorithms emerging from the statistical learning theory. Nonparametric kernel-based methods for nonlinear data classification, regression and target detection, known as support vector machines (SVM), are adapted for mapping of meteorological variables in complex orography.With the advent of high resolution digital elevation models, the field of spatial prediction met new horizons. In fact, by exploiting image processing tools along with physical heuristics, an incredible number of terrain features which account for the topographic conditions at multiple spatial scales can be extracted. Such features are highly relevant for the mapping of meteorological variables because they control a considerable part of the spatial variability of meteorological fields in the complex Alpine orography. For instance, patterns of orographic rainfall, wind speed and cold air pools are known to be correlated with particular terrain forms, e.g. convex/concave surfaces and upwind sides of mountain slopes.Kernel-based methods are employed to learn the nonlinear statistical dependence which links the multidimensional space of geographical and topographic explanatory variables to the variable of interest, that is the wind speed as measured at the weather stations or the occurrence of orographic rainfall patterns as extracted from sequences of radar images. Compared to low dimensional models integrating only the geographical coordinates, the proposed framework opens a way to regionalize meteorological variables which are multidimensional in nature and rarely show spatial auto-correlation in the original space making the use of classical geostatistics tangled.The challenges which are explored during the thesis are manifolds. First, the complexity of models is optimized to impose appropriate smoothness properties and reduce the impact of noisy measurements. Secondly, a multiple kernel extension of SVM is considered to select the multiscale features which explain most of the spatial variability of wind speed. Then, SVM target detection methods are implemented to describe the orographic conditions which cause persistent and stationary rainfall patterns. Finally, the optimal splitting of the data is studied to estimate realistic performances and confidence intervals characterizing the uncertainty of predictions.The resulting maps of average wind speeds find applications within renewable resources assessment and opens a route to decrease the temporal scale of analysis to meet hydrological requirements. Furthermore, the maps depicting the susceptibility to orographic rainfall enhancement can be used to improve current radar-based quantitative precipitation estimation and forecasting systems and to generate stochastic ensembles of precipitation fields conditioned upon the orography.

An allele-specific, stochastic gene expression process controls the expression of multiple Ly49 family genes and generates a diverse, MHC-specific NK cell receptor repertoire.

Mouse NK cells express MHC class I-specific inhibitory Ly49 receptors. Since these receptors display distinct ligand specificities and are clonally distributed, their expression generates a diverse NK cell receptor repertoire specific for MHC class I molecules. We have previously found that the Dd (or Dk)-specific Ly49A receptor is usually expressed from a single allele. However, a small fraction of short-term NK cell clones expressed both Ly49A alleles, suggesting that the two Ly49A alleles are independently and randomly expressed. Here we show that the genes for two additional Ly49 receptors (Ly49C and Ly49G2) are also expressed in a (predominantly) mono-allelic fashion. Since single NK cells can co-express multiple Ly49 receptors, we also investigated whether mono-allelic expression from within the tightly linked Ly49 gene cluster is coordinate or independent. Our clonal analysis suggests that the expression of alleles of distinct Ly49 genes is not coordinate. Thus Ly49 alleles are apparently independently and randomly chosen for stable expression, a process that directly restricts the number of Ly49 receptors expressed per single NK cell. We propose that the Ly49 receptor repertoire specific for MHC class I is generated by an allele-specific, stochastic gene expression process that acts on the entire Ly49 gene cluster.

Syndromic algorithms for detection of gambiense human african trypanosomiasis in South Sudan.

BACKGROUND: Active screening by mobile teams is considered the best method for detecting human African trypanosomiasis (HAT) caused by Trypanosoma brucei gambiense but the current funding context in many post-conflict countries limits this approach. As an alternative, non-specialist health care workers (HCWs) in peripheral health facilities could be trained to identify potential cases who need testing based on their symptoms. We explored the predictive value of syndromic referral algorithms to identify symptomatic cases of HAT among a treatment-seeking population in Nimule, South Sudan. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Symptom data from 462 patients (27 cases) presenting for a HAT test via passive screening over a 7 month period were collected to construct and evaluate over 14,000 four item syndromic algorithms considered simple enough to be used by peripheral HCWs. For comparison, algorithms developed in other settings were also tested on our data, and a panel of expert HAT clinicians were asked to make referral decisions based on the symptom dataset. The best performing algorithms consisted of three core symptoms (sleep problems, neurological problems and weight loss), with or without a history of oedema, cervical adenopathy or proximity to livestock. They had a sensitivity of 88.9-92.6%, a negative predictive value of up to 98.8% and a positive predictive value in this context of 8.4-8.7%. In terms of sensitivity, these out-performed more complex algorithms identified in other studies, as well as the expert panel. The best-performing algorithm is predicted to identify about 9/10 treatment-seeking HAT cases, though only 1/10 patients referred would test positive. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: In the absence of regular active screening, improving referrals of HAT patients through other means is essential. Systematic use of syndromic algorithms by peripheral HCWs has the potential to increase case detection and would increase their participation in HAT programmes. The algorithms proposed here, though promising, should be validated elsewhere.

3D noise power spectrum applied on clinical mdct scanners: effects of reconstruction algorithms and reconstruction filters

The noise power spectrum (NPS) is the reference metric for understanding the noise content in computed tomography (CT) images. To evaluate the noise properties of clinical multidetector (MDCT) scanners, local 2D and 3D NPSs were computed for different acquisition reconstruction parameters.A 64- and a 128-MDCT scanners were employed. Measurements were performed on a water phantom in axial and helical acquisition modes. CT dose index was identical for both installations. Influence of parameters such as the pitch, the reconstruction filter (soft, standard and bone) and the reconstruction algorithm (filtered-back projection (FBP), adaptive statistical iterative reconstruction (ASIR)) were investigated. Images were also reconstructed in the coronal plane using a reformat process. Then 2D and 3D NPS methods were computed.In axial acquisition mode, the 2D axial NPS showed an important magnitude variation as a function of the z-direction when measured at the phantom center. In helical mode, a directional dependency with lobular shape was observed while the magnitude of the NPS was kept constant. Important effects of the reconstruction filter, pitch and reconstruction algorithm were observed on 3D NPS results for both MDCTs. With ASIR, a reduction of the NPS magnitude and a shift of the NPS peak to the low frequency range were visible. 2D coronal NPS obtained from the reformat images was impacted by the interpolation when compared to 2D coronal NPS obtained from 3D measurements.The noise properties of volume measured in last generation MDCTs was studied using local 3D NPS metric. However, impact of the non-stationarity noise effect may need further investigations.

quantiNemo: an individual-based program to simulate quantitative traits with explicit genetic architecture in a dynamic metapopulation.

quantiNemo is an individual-based, genetically explicit stochastic simulation program. It was developed to investigate the effects of selection, mutation, recombination and drift on quantitative traits with varying architectures in structured populations connected by migration and located in a heterogeneous habitat. quantiNemo is highly flexible at various levels: population, selection, trait(s) architecture, genetic map for QTL and/or markers, environment, demography, mating system, etc. quantiNemo is coded in C++ using an object-oriented approach and runs on any computer platform. Availability: Executables for several platforms, user's manual, and source code are freely available under the GNU General Public License at http://www2.unil.ch/popgen/softwares/quantinemo.

Update on the non-prewhitening model observer in computed tomography for the assessment of the adaptive statistical and model-based iterative reconstruction algorithms.

The state of the art to describe image quality in medical imaging is to assess the performance of an observer conducting a task of clinical interest. This can be done by using a model observer leading to a figure of merit such as the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR). Using the non-prewhitening (NPW) model observer, we objectively characterised the evolution of its figure of merit in various acquisition conditions. The NPW model observer usually requires the use of the modulation transfer function (MTF) as well as noise power spectra. However, although the computation of the MTF poses no problem when dealing with the traditional filtered back-projection (FBP) algorithm, this is not the case when using iterative reconstruction (IR) algorithms, such as adaptive statistical iterative reconstruction (ASIR) or model-based iterative reconstruction (MBIR). Given that the target transfer function (TTF) had already shown it could accurately express the system resolution even with non-linear algorithms, we decided to tune the NPW model observer, replacing the standard MTF by the TTF. It was estimated using a custom-made phantom containing cylindrical inserts surrounded by water. The contrast differences between the inserts and water were plotted for each acquisition condition. Then, mathematical transformations were performed leading to the TTF. As expected, the first results showed a dependency of the image contrast and noise levels on the TTF for both ASIR and MBIR. Moreover, FBP also proved to be dependent of the contrast and noise when using the lung kernel. Those results were then introduced in the NPW model observer. We observed an enhancement of SNR every time we switched from FBP to ASIR to MBIR. IR algorithms greatly improve image quality, especially in low-dose conditions. Based on our results, the use of MBIR could lead to further dose reduction in several clinical applications.

Stochastic inversion of tracer test and electrical geophysical data to estimate hydraulic conductivities.

Quantifying the spatial configuration of hydraulic conductivity (K) in heterogeneous geological environments is essential for accurate predictions of contaminant transport, but is difficult because of the inherent limitations in resolution and coverage associated with traditional hydrological measurements. To address this issue, we consider crosshole and surface-based electrical resistivity geophysical measurements, collected in time during a saline tracer experiment. We use a Bayesian Markov-chain-Monte-Carlo (McMC) methodology to jointly invert the dynamic resistivity data, together with borehole tracer concentration data, to generate multiple posterior realizations of K that are consistent with all available information. We do this within a coupled inversion framework, whereby the geophysical and hydrological forward models are linked through an uncertain relationship between electrical resistivity and concentration. To minimize computational expense, a facies-based subsurface parameterization is developed. The Bayesian-McMC methodology allows us to explore the potential benefits of including the geophysical data into the inverse problem by examining their effect on our ability to identify fast flowpaths in the subsurface, and their impact on hydrological prediction uncertainty. Using a complex, geostatistically generated, two-dimensional numerical example representative of a fluvial environment, we demonstrate that flow model calibration is improved and prediction error is decreased when the electrical resistivity data are included. The worth of the geophysical data is found to be greatest for long spatial correlation lengths of subsurface heterogeneity with respect to wellbore separation, where flow and transport are largely controlled by highly connected flowpaths.

Machine learning for geospatial data : algorithms, software tools and case studies

Résumé Cette thèse est consacrée à l'analyse, la modélisation et la visualisation de données environnementales à référence spatiale à l'aide d'algorithmes d'apprentissage automatique (Machine Learning). L'apprentissage automatique peut être considéré au sens large comme une sous-catégorie de l'intelligence artificielle qui concerne particulièrement le développement de techniques et d'algorithmes permettant à une machine d'apprendre à partir de données. Dans cette thèse, les algorithmes d'apprentissage automatique sont adaptés pour être appliqués à des données environnementales et à la prédiction spatiale. Pourquoi l'apprentissage automatique ? Parce que la majorité des algorithmes d'apprentissage automatiques sont universels, adaptatifs, non-linéaires, robustes et efficaces pour la modélisation. Ils peuvent résoudre des problèmes de classification, de régression et de modélisation de densité de probabilités dans des espaces à haute dimension, composés de variables informatives spatialisées (« géo-features ») en plus des coordonnées géographiques. De plus, ils sont idéaux pour être implémentés en tant qu'outils d'aide à la décision pour des questions environnementales allant de la reconnaissance de pattern à la modélisation et la prédiction en passant par la cartographie automatique. Leur efficacité est comparable au modèles géostatistiques dans l'espace des coordonnées géographiques, mais ils sont indispensables pour des données à hautes dimensions incluant des géo-features. Les algorithmes d'apprentissage automatique les plus importants et les plus populaires sont présentés théoriquement et implémentés sous forme de logiciels pour les sciences environnementales. Les principaux algorithmes décrits sont le Perceptron multicouches (MultiLayer Perceptron, MLP) - l'algorithme le plus connu dans l'intelligence artificielle, le réseau de neurones de régression généralisée (General Regression Neural Networks, GRNN), le réseau de neurones probabiliste (Probabilistic Neural Networks, PNN), les cartes auto-organisées (SelfOrganized Maps, SOM), les modèles à mixture Gaussiennes (Gaussian Mixture Models, GMM), les réseaux à fonctions de base radiales (Radial Basis Functions Networks, RBF) et les réseaux à mixture de densité (Mixture Density Networks, MDN). Cette gamme d'algorithmes permet de couvrir des tâches variées telle que la classification, la régression ou l'estimation de densité de probabilité. L'analyse exploratoire des données (Exploratory Data Analysis, EDA) est le premier pas de toute analyse de données. Dans cette thèse les concepts d'analyse exploratoire de données spatiales (Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis, ESDA) sont traités selon l'approche traditionnelle de la géostatistique avec la variographie expérimentale et selon les principes de l'apprentissage automatique. La variographie expérimentale, qui étudie les relations entre pairs de points, est un outil de base pour l'analyse géostatistique de corrélations spatiales anisotropiques qui permet de détecter la présence de patterns spatiaux descriptible par une statistique. L'approche de l'apprentissage automatique pour l'ESDA est présentée à travers l'application de la méthode des k plus proches voisins qui est très simple et possède d'excellentes qualités d'interprétation et de visualisation. Une part importante de la thèse traite de sujets d'actualité comme la cartographie automatique de données spatiales. Le réseau de neurones de régression généralisée est proposé pour résoudre cette tâche efficacement. Les performances du GRNN sont démontrées par des données de Comparaison d'Interpolation Spatiale (SIC) de 2004 pour lesquelles le GRNN bat significativement toutes les autres méthodes, particulièrement lors de situations d'urgence. La thèse est composée de quatre chapitres : théorie, applications, outils logiciels et des exemples guidés. Une partie importante du travail consiste en une collection de logiciels : Machine Learning Office. Cette collection de logiciels a été développée durant les 15 dernières années et a été utilisée pour l'enseignement de nombreux cours, dont des workshops internationaux en Chine, France, Italie, Irlande et Suisse ainsi que dans des projets de recherche fondamentaux et appliqués. Les cas d'études considérés couvrent un vaste spectre de problèmes géoenvironnementaux réels à basse et haute dimensionnalité, tels que la pollution de l'air, du sol et de l'eau par des produits radioactifs et des métaux lourds, la classification de types de sols et d'unités hydrogéologiques, la cartographie des incertitudes pour l'aide à la décision et l'estimation de risques naturels (glissements de terrain, avalanches). Des outils complémentaires pour l'analyse exploratoire des données et la visualisation ont également été développés en prenant soin de créer une interface conviviale et facile à l'utilisation. Machine Learning for geospatial data: algorithms, software tools and case studies Abstract The thesis is devoted to the analysis, modeling and visualisation of spatial environmental data using machine learning algorithms. In a broad sense machine learning can be considered as a subfield of artificial intelligence. It mainly concerns with the development of techniques and algorithms that allow computers to learn from data. In this thesis machine learning algorithms are adapted to learn from spatial environmental data and to make spatial predictions. Why machine learning? In few words most of machine learning algorithms are universal, adaptive, nonlinear, robust and efficient modeling tools. They can find solutions for the classification, regression, and probability density modeling problems in high-dimensional geo-feature spaces, composed of geographical space and additional relevant spatially referenced features. They are well-suited to be implemented as predictive engines in decision support systems, for the purposes of environmental data mining including pattern recognition, modeling and predictions as well as automatic data mapping. They have competitive efficiency to the geostatistical models in low dimensional geographical spaces but are indispensable in high-dimensional geo-feature spaces. The most important and popular machine learning algorithms and models interesting for geo- and environmental sciences are presented in details: from theoretical description of the concepts to the software implementation. The main algorithms and models considered are the following: multi-layer perceptron (a workhorse of machine learning), general regression neural networks, probabilistic neural networks, self-organising (Kohonen) maps, Gaussian mixture models, radial basis functions networks, mixture density networks. This set of models covers machine learning tasks such as classification, regression, and density estimation. Exploratory data analysis (EDA) is initial and very important part of data analysis. In this thesis the concepts of exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA) is considered using both traditional geostatistical approach such as_experimental variography and machine learning. Experimental variography is a basic tool for geostatistical analysis of anisotropic spatial correlations which helps to understand the presence of spatial patterns, at least described by two-point statistics. A machine learning approach for ESDA is presented by applying the k-nearest neighbors (k-NN) method which is simple and has very good interpretation and visualization properties. Important part of the thesis deals with a hot topic of nowadays, namely, an automatic mapping of geospatial data. General regression neural networks (GRNN) is proposed as efficient model to solve this task. Performance of the GRNN model is demonstrated on Spatial Interpolation Comparison (SIC) 2004 data where GRNN model significantly outperformed all other approaches, especially in case of emergency conditions. The thesis consists of four chapters and has the following structure: theory, applications, software tools, and how-to-do-it examples. An important part of the work is a collection of software tools - Machine Learning Office. Machine Learning Office tools were developed during last 15 years and was used both for many teaching courses, including international workshops in China, France, Italy, Ireland, Switzerland and for realizing fundamental and applied research projects. Case studies considered cover wide spectrum of the real-life low and high-dimensional geo- and environmental problems, such as air, soil and water pollution by radionuclides and heavy metals, soil types and hydro-geological units classification, decision-oriented mapping with uncertainties, natural hazards (landslides, avalanches) assessments and susceptibility mapping. Complementary tools useful for the exploratory data analysis and visualisation were developed as well. The software is user friendly and easy to use.

On the convergence of EM-like algorithms for image segmentation using Markov random fields.

Inference of Markov random field images segmentation models is usually performed using iterative methods which adapt the well-known expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm for independent mixture models. However, some of these adaptations are ad hoc and may turn out numerically unstable. In this paper, we review three EM-like variants for Markov random field segmentation and compare their convergence properties both at the theoretical and practical levels. We specifically advocate a numerical scheme involving asynchronous voxel updating, for which general convergence results can be established. Our experiments on brain tissue classification in magnetic resonance images provide evidence that this algorithm may achieve significantly faster convergence than its competitors while yielding at least as good segmentation results.

Performance of noninvasive ventilation algorithms on ICU ventilators during pressure support: a clinical study.

To evaluate the impact of noninvasive ventilation (NIV) algorithms available on intensive care unit ventilators on the incidence of patient-ventilator asynchrony in patients receiving NIV for acute respiratory failure. Prospective multicenter randomized cross-over study. Intensive care units in three university hospitals. Patients consecutively admitted to the ICU and treated by NIV with an ICU ventilator were included. Airway pressure, flow and surface diaphragmatic electromyography were recorded continuously during two 30-min periods, with the NIV (NIV+) or without the NIV algorithm (NIV0). Asynchrony events, the asynchrony index (AI) and a specific asynchrony index influenced by leaks (AIleaks) were determined from tracing analysis. Sixty-five patients were included. With and without the NIV algorithm, respectively, auto-triggering was present in 14 (22%) and 10 (15%) patients, ineffective breaths in 15 (23%) and 5 (8%) (p = 0.004), late cycling in 11 (17%) and 5 (8%) (p = 0.003), premature cycling in 22 (34%) and 21 (32%), and double triggering in 3 (5%) and 6 (9%). The mean number of asynchronies influenced by leaks was significantly reduced by the NIV algorithm (p < 0.05). A significant correlation was found between the magnitude of leaks and AIleaks when the NIV algorithm was not activated (p = 0.03). The global AI remained unchanged, mainly because on some ventilators with the NIV algorithm premature cycling occurs. In acute respiratory failure, NIV algorithms provided by ICU ventilators can reduce the incidence of asynchronies because of leaks, thus confirming bench test results, but some of these algorithms can generate premature cycling.

Modélisation par automate cellulaire des phénomènes diagénétiques des plateformes carbonatées : calibration et paramétrage à partir de deux cas d'études : l'Urgonien du Vercors (Crétacé inférieur, SE France) et les Calcaires Gris du Mont Compomolon (Lias, NE Italie)

Une fois déposé, un sédiment est affecté au cours de son enfouissement par un ensemble de processus, regroupé sous le terme diagenèse, le transformant parfois légèrement ou bien suffisamment pour le rendre méconnaissable. Ces modifications ont des conséquences sur les propriétés pétrophysiques qui peuvent être positives ou négatives, c'est-à-dire les améliorer ou bien les détériorer. Une voie alternative de représentation numérique des processus, affranchie de l'utilisation des réactions physico-chimiques, a été adoptée et développée en mimant le déplacement du ou des fluides diagénétiques. Cette méthode s'appuie sur le principe d'un automate cellulaire et permet de simplifier les phénomènes sans sacrifier le résultat et permet de représenter les phénomènes diagénétiques à une échelle fine. Les paramètres sont essentiellement numériques ou mathématiques et nécessitent d'être mieux compris et renseignés à partir de données réelles issues d'études d'affleurements et du travail analytique effectué. La représentation des phénomènes de dolomitisation de faible profondeur suivie d'une phase de dédolomitisation a été dans un premier temps effectuée. Le secteur concerne une portion de la série carbonatée de l'Urgonien (Barrémien-Aptien), localisée dans le massif du Vercors en France. Ce travail a été réalisé à l'échelle de la section afin de reproduire les géométries complexes associées aux phénomènes diagénétiques et de respecter les proportions mesurées en dolomite. De plus, la dolomitisation a été simulée selon trois modèles d'écoulement. En effet, la dédolomitisation étant omniprésente, plusieurs hypothèses sur le mécanisme de dolomitisation ont été énoncées et testées. Plusieurs phases de dolomitisation per ascensum ont été également simulées sur des séries du Lias appartenant aux formations du groupe des Calcaire Gris, localisées au nord-est de l'Italie. Ces fluides diagénétiques empruntent le réseau de fracturation comme vecteur et affectent préférentiellement les lithologies les plus micritisées. Cette étude a permis de mettre en évidence la propagation des phénomènes à l'échelle de l'affleurement. - Once deposited, sediment is affected by diagenetic processes during their burial history. These diagenetic processes are able to affect the petrophysical properties of the sedimentary rocks and also improve as such their reservoir capacity. The modelling of diagenetic processes in carbonate reservoirs is still a challenge as far as neither stochastic nor physicochemical simulations can correctly reproduce the complexity of features and the reservoir heterogeneity generated by these processes. An alternative way to reach this objective deals with process-like methods, which simplify the algorithms while preserving all geological concepts in the modelling process. The aim of the methodology is to conceive a consistent and realistic 3D model of diagenetic overprints on initial facies resulting in petrophysical properties at a reservoir scale. The principle of the method used here is related to a lattice gas automata used to mimic diagenetic fluid flows and to reproduce the diagenetic effects through the evolution of mineralogical composition and petrophysical properties. This method developed in a research group is well adapted to handle dolomite reservoirs through the propagation of dolomitising fluids and has been applied on two case studies. The first study concerns a mid-Cretaceous rudist and granular platform of carbonate succession (Urgonian Fm., Les Gorges du Nan, Vercors, SE France), in which several main diagenetic stages have been identified. The modelling in 2D is focused on dolomitisation followed by a dédolomitisation stage. For the second study, data collected from outcrops on the Venetian platform (Lias, Mont Compomolon NE Italy), in which several diagenetic stages have been identified. The main one is related to per ascensum dolomitisation along fractures. In both examples, the evolution of the effects of the mimetic diagenetic fluid on mineralogical composition can be followed through space and numerical time and help to understand the heterogeneity in reservoir properties. Carbonates, dolomitisation, dédolomitisation, process-like modelling, lattice gas automata, random walk, memory effect.