Differential effect of Charlson index and its components on in-hospital mortality and health costs

Introduction: The Charlson index (Charlson, 1987) is a commonly used comorbidity index in outcome studies. Still, the use of different weights makes its calculation cumbersome, while the sum of its components (comorbidities) is easier to compute. In this study, we assessed the effects of 1) the Charlson index adapted for the Swiss population and 2) the sum of its components (number of comorbidities, maximum 15) on a) in-hospital deaths and b) cost of hospitalization. Methods: Anonymous data was obtained from the administrative database of the department of internal medicine of the Lausanne University Hospital (CHUV). All hospitalizations of adult (>=18 years) patients occurring between 2003 and 2011 were included. For each hospitalization, the Charlson index and the number of comorbidities were calculated. Analyses were conducted using Stata. Results: Data from 32,741 hospitalizations occurring between 2003 and 2011 was analyzed. On bivariate analysis, both the Charlson index and the number of comorbidities were significantly and positively associated with in hospital death. Conversely, multivariate adjustment for age, gender and calendar year using Cox regression showed that the association was no longer significant for the number of comorbidities (table). On bivariate analysis, hospitalization costs increased both with Charlson index and with number of comorbidities, but the increase was much steeper for the number of comorbidities (figure). Robust regression after adjusting for age, gender, calendar year and duration of hospital stay showed that the increase in one comorbidity led to an average increase in hospital costs of 321 CHF (95% CI: 272 to 370), while the increase in one score point of the Charlson index led to a decrease in hospital costs of 49 CHF (95% CI: 31 to 67). Conclusion: Charlson index is better than the number of comorbidities in predicting in-hospital death. Conversely, the number of comorbidities significantly increases hospital costs.

Association of socioeconomic status with overall and cause specific mortality in the republic of seychelles : results from a cohort study in the african region

BACKGROUND: Low socioeconomic status (SES) is consistently associated with higher mortality in high income countries. Only few studies have assessed this association in low and middle income countries, mainly because of sparse reliable mortality data. This study explores SES differences in overall and cause-specific mortality in the Seychelles, a rapidly developing small island state in the African region. METHODS: All deaths have been medically certified over more than two decades. SES and other lifestyle-related risk factors were assessed in a total of 3246 participants from three independent population-based surveys conducted in 1989, 1994 and 2004. Vital status was ascertained using linkage with vital statistics. Occupational position was the indicator of SES used in this study and was assessed with the same questions in the three surveys. RESULTS: During a mean follow-up of 15.0 years (range 0-23 years), 523 participants died (overall mortality rate 10.8 per 1000 person-years). The main causes of death were cardiovascular disease (CVD) (219 deaths) and cancer (142 deaths). Participants in the low SES group had a higher mortality risk for overall (HR = 1.80; 95% CI: 1.24-2.62), CVD (HR = 1.95; 1.04-3.65) and non-cancer/non-CVD (HR = 2.14; 1.10-4.16) mortality compared to participants in the high SES group. Cancer mortality also tended to be patterned by SES (HR = 1.44; 0.76-2.75). Major lifestyle-related risk factors (smoking, heavy drinking, obesity, diabetes, hypertension, hypercholesterolemia) explained a small proportion of the associations between low SES and all-cause, CVD, and non-cancer/non-CVD mortality. CONCLUSIONS: In this population-based study assessing social inequalities in mortality in a country of the African region, low SES (as measured by occupational position) was strongly associated with overall, CVD and non-cancer/non-CVD mortality. Our findings support the view that the burden of non-communicable diseases may disproportionally affect people with low SES in low and middle income countries.

Resting heart rate and incident heart failure and cardiovascular mortality in older adults: role of inflammation and endothelial dysfunction: the PROSPER study.

AIMS: Resting heart rate is a promising modifiable cardiovascular risk marker in older adults, but the mechanisms linking heart rate to cardiovascular disease are not fully understood. We aimed to assess the association between resting heart rate and incident heart failure (HF) and cardiovascular mortality, and to examine whether these associations might be attributable to systemic inflammation and endothelial dysfunction. METHODS AND RESULTS: We studied 4084 older adults aged 70-82 years with known cardiovascular risk factors or previous cardiovascular disease, without pre-existing HF or beta-blockers in the PROSPER study. Over a 3.2-year follow-up period, we examined incident HF hospitalization and cardiovascular mortality according to resting heart rate, along with C-reactive protein (CRP), interleukin-6 (IL-6), tissue plasminogen activator (tPA), and von Willebrand factor (vWf). Mean heart rate was 67 b.p.m. for men and 70 b.p.m. for women. CRP, IL-6, tPA, and vWf levels were all positively correlated with heart rate. After multivariate adjustment, heart rate was associated with HF hospitalization [hazard ratio (HR) 1.78 for highest vs. lowest distribution third, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.21-2.63, P= 0.003] and cardiovascular mortality (HR 1.74, 95% CI 1.23-2.47, P= 0.002). Further adjustment for both IL-6 and vWf levels decreased HR to 1.60 (95% CI 1.08-2.38, P= 0.020) for HF and to 1.50 (95% CI 1.04-2.15, P= 0.028) for cardiovascular mortality. CONCLUSION: Increased heart rate is associated with increased systemic inflammation and endothelial dysfunction. These factors are likely to contribute to, but do not fully explain, the risk of HF and cardiovascular death associated with increased heart rate in older age.

Inverse agonism and neutral antagonism at alpha(1a)- and alpha(1b)-adrenergic receptor subtypes.

We have characterized the pharmacological antagonism, i.e., neutral antagonism or inverse agonism, displayed by a number of alpha-blockers at two alpha1-adrenergic receptor (AR) subtypes, alpha(1a)- and alpha(1b)-AR. Constitutively activating mutations were introduced into the alpha(1a)-AR at the position homologous to A293 of the alpha(1b)-AR where activating mutations were previously described. Twenty-four alpha-blockers differing in their chemical structures were initially tested for their effect on the agonist-independent inositol phosphate response mediated by the constitutively active A271E and A293E mutants expressed in COS-7 cells. A selected number of drugs also were tested for their effect on the small, but measurable spontaneous activity of the wild-type alpha(1a)- and alpha(1b)-AR expressed in COS-7 cells. The results of our study demonstrate that a large number of structurally different alpha-blockers display profound negative efficacy at both the alpha(1a)- and alpha(1b)-AR subtypes. For other drugs, the negative efficacy varied at the different constitutively active mutants. The most striking difference concerns a group of N-arylpiperazines, including 8-[2-[4-(5-chloro-2-methoxyphenyl)-1-piperazinyl]ethyl]-8-azaspiro [4, 5] decane-7,9-dione (REC 15/3039), REC 15/2739, and REC 15/3011, which are inverse agonists with profound negative efficacy at the wild-type alpha(1b)-AR, but not at the alpha(1a)-AR.

Ecological correlations between food availability and mortality: more than you can eat?

Introduction: There is little information regarding the impact of diet on disease incidence and mortality in Switzerland. Objectives: We aimed at assessing the associations between food availability and disease using ecological correlations. Methods: Time-trend ecologic study for period 1970 to 2009. Food availability was measured through the FAO food balance sheets. Standardized mortality rates (SMRs) were obtained from the Swiss Federal Office of Statistics. Cancer incidence data was obtained from the WHO Health for all database and the Vaud cancer registry. Association between food availability and mortality/incidence was assessed at lags 0, 5, 10 and 15 years by Spearman correlation. Results: Alcoholic beverages and fruit availability were positively associated with SMRs from all types of cardiovascular disease, while fish availability was negatively associated. Animal products, meat and animal fats were positively associated with SMR from ischemic heart disease only. For cancers, opposite results were found whether the association used SMRs or incidence rates. For all cancers, alcoholic beverages and fruits were positively associated with SMRs but negatively associated with incidence rates. Similar findings were obtained for all other foods, with the exception of vegetables, which were weakly and negatively associated with SMRs and incidence rates. Finally, a 15 years lag time reversed the association for animal and vegetal products, weakened the association for alcohol and fruits and strengthened the association for fish. Conclusion: Ecologic associations between food availability and disease vary considerably whether mortality or incidence rates are used. Great care should be taken when interpreting the results.

Comparison of in-hospital mortality for acute myocardial infarction in Switzerland with admission during routine duty hours versus admission during out of hours (insight into the AMIS plus registry).

To improve long-term survival, prompt revascularization of the infarct-related artery should be done in patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI); therefore, a large proportion of these patients would be hospitalized during out of hours. The clinical effects of out-of-hours AMI management were already questioned, with conflicting results. The purpose of this investigation was to compare the in-hospital outcome of patients admitted for AMI during out of hours and working hours. All patients with AMI included in the AMIS Plus Registry from January 1, 1997, to March 30, 2006, were analyzed. The working-hours group included patients admitted from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. on weekdays, and the out-of-hours group included patients admitted from 7 p.m. to 7 a.m. on weekdays or weekends. Major cardiac events were defined as cardiovascular death, reinfarction, and stroke. The study primary end points were in-hospital death and major adverse cardiac event (MACE) rates. A total of 12,480 patients met the inclusion criteria, with 52% admitted during normal working hours, and 48%, during out of hours. Patients admitted during weekdays included more women (28.1% vs 26%; p = 0.009), older patients (65.5 +/- 13 vs 64.1 +/- 13 years; p = 0.0011), less current smokers (40.1% vs 43.5%; p <0.001), and less patients with a history of ischemic heart disease (31.5% vs 34.5%; p = 0.001). A significantly higher proportion of patients admitted during out of hours had Killip's class III and IV. No differences in terms of in-hospital survival rates between the 2 groups (91.5% vs 91.2%; p = 0.633) or MACE-free survival rates (both 88.5%; p = 1.000) were noted. In conclusion, the outcome of patients with AMI admitted out of hours was the same compared with those with a weekday admission. Of predictors for in-hospital outcome, timing of admission had no significant influence on mortality and/or MACE incidence.

Declining stroke and myocardial infarction mortality between 1989 and 2010 in a country of the African region.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: In low- and middle-income countries, the total burden of cardiovascular diseases is expected to increase due to demographic and epidemiological transitions. However, data on cause-specific mortality are lacking in sub-Saharan Africa. Seychelles is one of the few countries in the region where all deaths are registered and medically certified. In this study, we examine trends in mortality for stroke and myocardial infarction (MI) between 1989 and 2010. METHODS: Based on vital statistics, we ascertained stroke and MI as the cause of death if appearing in any of the 4 fields for immediate, intermediate, underlying, and contributory causes in death certificates. RESULTS: Mortality rates (per 100 000, age-standardized to World Health Organization standard population) decreased from 1669/710 (men/women) in 1989 to 1991 to 1113/535 in 2008-10 for all causes, from 250/140 to 141/86 for stroke, and from 117/51 to 59/24 for MI, corresponding to proportionate decreases of 33%/25% for all-cause mortality, 44%/39% for stroke, and 50%/53% for MI over 22 years. The absolute number of stroke and MI deaths did not increase over time. In 2008 to 2010, the median age of death was 65/78 years (men/women) for all causes, 68/78 for stroke, and 66/73 for MI. CONCLUSIONS: Between 1989 and 2010, age-standardized stroke and MI mortality decreased markedly and more rapidly than all-cause mortality. The absolute number of cardiovascular disease deaths did not increase over time because the impact of population aging was fully compensated by the decline in cardiovascular disease mortality. Stroke mortality remained high, emphasizing the need to strengthen cardiovascular disease prevention and control.

Congenital heart defects in Europe: prevalence and perinatal mortality, 2000 to 2005.

BACKGROUND: This study determines the prevalence of Congenital Heart Defects (CHD), diagnosed prenatally or in infancy, and fetal and perinatal mortality associated with CHD in Europe. METHODS AND RESULTS: Data were extracted from the European Surveillance of Congenital Anomalies central database for 29 population-based congenital anomaly registries in 16 European countries covering 3.3 million births during the period 2000 to 2005. CHD cases (n=26 598) comprised live births, fetal deaths from 20 weeks gestation, and terminations of pregnancy for fetal anomaly (TOPFA). The average total prevalence of CHD was 8.0 per 1000 births, and live birth prevalence was 7.2 per 1000 births, varying between countries. The total prevalence of nonchromosomal CHD was 7.0 per 1000 births, of which 3.6% were perinatal deaths, 20% prenatally diagnosed, and 5.6% TOPFA. Severe nonchromosomal CHD (ie, excluding ventricular septal defects, atrial septal defects, and pulmonary valve stenosis) occurred in 2.0 per 1000 births, of which 8.1% were perinatal deaths, 40% were prenatally diagnosed, and 14% were TOPFA (TOPFA range between countries 0% to 32%). Live-born CHD associated with Down syndrome occurred in 0.5 per 1000 births, with > 4-fold variation between countries. CONCLUSION: Annually in the European Union, we estimate 36 000 children are live born with CHD and 3000 who are diagnosed with CHD die as a TOFPA, late fetal death, or early neonatal death. Investing in primary prevention and pathogenetic research is essential to reduce this burden, as well as continuing to improve cardiac services from in utero to adulthood.

European cancer mortality predictions for the year 2011.

Background: Mortality figures become available after some years.Materials and methods: Using the World Health Organization mortality and population data, we estimated numbers of deaths in 2011 from all cancers and selected sites for the European Union (EU) and six major countries, by fitting a joinpoint model to 5-year age-specific numbers of deaths. Age-standardized rates were computed using EUROSTAT population estimates.Results: The predicted number of cancer deaths in the EU in 2011 was 1 281 436, with standardized rates of 143/100 000 men and 85/100 000 women. Poland had the highest rates, with smaller falls over recent periods. Declines in mortality for major sites including stomach, colorectum, breast, uterus, prostate and leukemias, plus male lung cancer, will continue until 2011, and a trend reversal or a leveling off is predicted where upward trends were previously observed. Female lung cancer rates are increasing in all major EU countries except the UK, where it is the first cause of cancer death, as now in Poland. The increasing pancreatic cancer trends in women observed up to 2004 have likely leveled off.Conclusions: Despite falls in rates, absolute numbers of cancer deaths are stable in Europe. The gap between Western and former nonmarket economy countries will likely persist.

The SYNTAX score predicts early mortality risk in the elderly with acute coronary syndrome having primary PCI.

BACKGROUND: The SYNTAX score (SXscore), an angiographic score reflecting coronary lesion complexity, predicts clinical outcomes in patients with left main or multivessel disease, and in patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction undergoing primary PCI. The clinical SXscore (CSS) integrates the SXscore and clinical variables (age, ejection fraction, serum creatinine) into a single score. We analyzed these scores in elderly patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS) undergoing primary PCI. The purpose of this analysis was not to decide which patients should undergo PCI, but to predict clinical outcomes in this population. METHODS: The SXscore was determined in a consecutive series of 114 elderly patients (mean age, 79.6 ± 4.1 years) undergoing primary PCI for ACS. Outcomes were stratified according to SXscore tertiles: SXLOW ≤15 (n = 39), 15< SXMID <23 (n = 40), and SXHIGH ≥23 (n = 35). The primary endpoint was all-cause mortality at 30 days. Secondary endpoints were nonfatal major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events (MACCE) at 30 days, and 1-year outcomes in patients discharged alive. RESULTS: Mortality at 30 days was higher in the SXHIGH group compared with the aggregate SXLOW+MID group (37.1% vs 5.1%; P<.0001), and in the CSSHIGH group compared with the aggregate CSSLOW+MID group (25.5% vs 1.4%; P=.0001). MACCE rates at 30 days were similar among SXscore tertiles. The CSS predicted 1-year MACCE rates (12.1% for CSSHIGH vs 3.1% for CSSLOW+MID; P=.03). CONCLUSIONS: The SXscore predicts 30-day mortality in elderly patients with ACS undergoing primary PCI. In patients discharged alive, the CSS predicts risk of MACCE at 1 year.

Lung cancer mortality in European men: Trends and predictions.

Lung cancer mortality in men from the European Union (EU) peaked in the late 1980s at an age-standardised (world standard population) rate over 53/100,000 and declined subsequently to reach 44/100,000 in the early 2000s. To provide a comprehensive picture of recent trends in male lung cancer mortality in Europe, we analyzed available data from the World Health Organization up to 2009 and predicted future rates to 2015. Lung cancer mortality rates in EU men continued to fall over recent years, to reach a value of 41.1/100,000 in 2005-2009. The fall was similar at all-ages and in middle-aged men (less than 2% per year over most recent years), but was appreciably larger in young men (aged 20-44years, over 5% per year). A favourable trend is thus likely to be maintained in the foreseeable future, although the predicted overall EU rate in 2015 is still over 35/100,000, i.e., higher than the US rate in 2007 (33.7/100,000). Over most recent calendar years, overall male lung cancer rates were around 35-40/100,000 in western Europe, as compared to over 50/100,000 in central and eastern Europe. Within western Europe, lung cancer rates were lower in northern countries such as Sweden, but also Finland and the UK (below 30/100,000), where the tobacco-related epidemic started earlier and rates have long been declining, whereas mortality was high in Belgium (51.6), France (42.3), the Netherlands and Spain (around 43.0), where the epidemic started later but is persisting. Widespread measures for smoking control and cessation in middle-aged European men, i.e., in the generations where smoking prevalence used to be high, would lead to appreciable reductions in male lung cancer mortality in the near future. This is particularly urgent in central and eastern European countries.

Trends in hospital discharges, management and in-hospital mortality from acute myocardial infarction in Switzerland between 1998 and 2008.

BACKGROUND: Since the late nineties, no study has assessed the trends in management and in-hospital outcome of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) in Switzerland. Our objective was to fill this gap. METHODS: Swiss hospital discharge database for years 1998 to 2008. AMI was defined as a primary discharge diagnosis code I21 according to the ICD10 classification. Invasive treatments and overall in-hospital mortality were assessed. RESULTS: Overall, 102,729 hospital discharges with a diagnosis of AMI were analyzed. The percentage of hospitalizations with a stay in an Intensive Care Unit decreased from 38.0% in 1998 to 36.2% in 2008 (p for trend < 0.001). Percutaneous revascularizations increased from 6.0% to 39.9% (p for trend < 0.001). Bare stents rose from 1.3% to 16.6% (p for trend < 0.001). Drug eluting stents appeared in 2004 and increased to 23.5% in 2008 (p for trend < 0.001). Coronary artery bypass graft increased from 1.0% to 3.0% (p for trend < 0.001). Circulatory assistance increased from 0.2% to 1.7% (p for trend < 0.001). Among patients managed in a single hospital (not transferred), seven-day and total in-hospital mortality decreased from 8.0% to 7.0% (p for trend < 0.01) and from 11.2% to 10.1%, respectively. These changes were no longer significant after multivariate adjustment for age, gender, region, revascularization procedures and transfer type. After multivariate adjustment, differing trends in revascularization procedures and in in-hospital mortality were found according to the geographical region considered. CONCLUSION: In Switzerland, a steep rise in hospital discharges and in revascularization procedures for AMI occurred between 1998 and 2008. The increase in revascularization procedures could explain the decrease in in-hospital mortality rates.

Correlation between vasoconstrictor roles and mRNA expression of alpha1-adrenoceptor subtypes in blood vessels of genetically engineered mice.

We examined the contribution of each alpha(1)-adrenoceptor (AR) subtype in noradrenaline (NAd)-evoked contraction in the thoracic aortas and mesenteric arteries of mice. Compared with the concentration-response curves (CRCs) for NAd in the thoracic aortas of wild-type (WT) mice, the CRCs of mutant mice showed a significantly lower sensitivity. The pD(2) value in rank order is as follows: WT mice (8.21) > alpha(1B)-adrenoceptor knockout (alpha(1B)-KO) (7.77) > alpha(1D)-AR knockout (alpha(1D)-KO) (6.44) > alpha(1B)- and alpha(1D)-AR double knockout (alpha(1BD)-KO) (5.15). In the mesenteric artery, CRCs for NAd did not differ significantly between either WT (6.52) and alpha(1B)-KO mice (7.12) or alpha(1D)-KO (6.19) and alpha(1BD)-KO (6.29) mice. However, the CRC maximum responses to NAd in alpha(1D)- and alpha(1BD)-KO mice were significantly lower than those in WT and alpha(1B)-KO mice. Except in the thoracic aortas of alpha(1BD)-KO mice, the competitive antagonist prazosin inhibited the contraction response to NAd with high affinity. However, prazosin produced shallow Schild slopes in the vessels of mice lacking the alpha(1D)-AR gene. In the thoracic aorta, pA(2) values in WT mice for KMD-3213 and BMY7378 were 8.25 and 8.46, respectively, and in alpha(1B)-KO mice they were 8.49 and 9.13, respectively. In the mesenteric artery, pA(2) values in WT mice for KMD-3213 and BMY7378 were 8.34 and 7.47, respectively, and in alpha(1B)-KO mice they were 8.11 and 7.82, respectively. These pharmacological findings were in fairly good agreement with findings from comparison of CRCs, with the exception of the mesenteric arteries of WT and alpha(1B)-KO mice, which showed low affinities to BMY7378. We performed a quantitative analysis of the mRNA expression of each alpha(1)-AR subtype in these vessels in order to examine the correlation between mRNA expression level and the predominance of each alpha(1)-AR subtype in mediating vascular contraction. The rank order of each alpha(1)-AR subtype in terms of its vasoconstrictor role was in fairly good agreement with the level of expression of mRNA of each subtype, that is, alpha(1D)-AR > alpha(1B)-AR > alpha(1A)-AR in the thoracic aorta and alpha(1D)-AR > alpha(1A)-AR > alpha(1B)-AR in the mesenteric artery. No dramatic compensatory change of alpha(1)-AR subtype in mutant mice was observed in pharmacological or quantitative mRNA expression analysis.

When to initiate combined antiretroviral therapy to reduce mortality and AIDS-defining illness in HIV-infected persons in developed countries: an observational study.

BACKGROUND: Most clinical guidelines recommend that AIDS-free, HIV-infected persons with CD4 cell counts below 0.350 × 10(9) cells/L initiate combined antiretroviral therapy (cART), but the optimal CD4 cell count at which cART should be initiated remains a matter of debate. OBJECTIVE: To identify the optimal CD4 cell count at which cART should be initiated. DESIGN: Prospective observational data from the HIV-CAUSAL Collaboration and dynamic marginal structural models were used to compare cART initiation strategies for CD4 thresholds between 0.200 and 0.500 × 10(9) cells/L. SETTING: HIV clinics in Europe and the Veterans Health Administration system in the United States. PATIENTS: 20, 971 HIV-infected, therapy-naive persons with baseline CD4 cell counts at or above 0.500 × 10(9) cells/L and no previous AIDS-defining illnesses, of whom 8392 had a CD4 cell count that decreased into the range of 0.200 to 0.499 × 10(9) cells/L and were included in the analysis. MEASUREMENTS: Hazard ratios and survival proportions for all-cause mortality and a combined end point of AIDS-defining illness or death. RESULTS: Compared with initiating cART at the CD4 cell count threshold of 0.500 × 10(9) cells/L, the mortality hazard ratio was 1.01 (95% CI, 0.84 to 1.22) for the 0.350 threshold and 1.20 (CI, 0.97 to 1.48) for the 0.200 threshold. The corresponding hazard ratios were 1.38 (CI, 1.23 to 1.56) and 1.90 (CI, 1.67 to 2.15), respectively, for the combined end point of AIDS-defining illness or death. Limitations: CD4 cell count at cART initiation was not randomized. Residual confounding may exist. CONCLUSION: Initiation of cART at a threshold CD4 count of 0.500 × 10(9) cells/L increases AIDS-free survival. However, mortality did not vary substantially with the use of CD4 thresholds between 0.300 and 0.500 × 10(9) cells/L.