Regional-scale debris-flow risk assessment for an alpine valley

In this paper, we perform a societal and economic risk assessment for debris flows at the regional scale, for lower Valtellina, Northern Italy. We apply a simple empirical debris-flow model, FLOW-R, which couples a probabilistic flow routing algorithm with an energy line approach, providing the relative probability of transit, and the maximum kinetic energy, for each cell. By assessing a vulnerability to people and to other exposed elements (buildings, public facilities, crops, woods, communication lines), and their economic value, we calculated the expected annual losses both in terms of lives (societal risk) and goods (direct economic risk). For societal risk assessment, we distinguish for the day and night scenarios. The distribution of people at different moments of the day was considered, accounting for the occupational and recreational activities, to provide a more realistic assessment of risk. Market studies were performed in order to assess a realistic economic value to goods, structures, and lifelines. As terrain unit, a 20 m x 20 m cell was used, in accordance with data availability and the spatial resolution requested for a risk assessment at this scale. Societal risk the whole area amounts to 1.98 and 4.22 deaths/year for the day and the night scenarios, respectively, with a maximum of 0.013 deaths/year/cell. Economic risk for goods amounts to 1,760,291 ?/year, with a maximum of 13,814 ?/year/cell.

Tonotopic gradients in human primary auditory cortex: concurring evidence from high-resolution 7 t and 3 t FMRI.

The tonotopic representations within the primary auditory cortex (PAC) have been successfully mapped with ultra-high field fMRI. Here, we compared the reliability of this tonotopic mapping paradigm at 7 T with 1.5 mm spatial resolution with maps acquired at 3 T with the same stimulation paradigm, but with spatial resolutions of 1.8 and 2.4 mm. For all subjects, the mirror-symmetric gradients within PAC were highly similar at 7 T and 3 T and across renderings at different spatial resolutions; albeit with lower percent signal changes at 3 T. In contrast, the frequency maps outside PAC tended to suffer from a reduced BOLD contrast-to-noise ratio at 3 T for a 1.8 mm voxel size, while robust at 2.4 mm and at 1.5 mm at 7 T. Overall, our results showed the robustness of the phase-encoding paradigm used here to map tonotopic representations across scanners.

Conflict resolution and evolution of social structures in insect societies

In colonies of social Hymenoptera (which include all ants, as well as some wasp and bee species), only queens reproduce whereas workers generally perform other tasks. The evolution of worker's reproductive altruism can be explained by kin selection, which states that workers can indirectly transmit copies of their genes by helping the reproduction of relatives. The relatedness between queens and workers may however be low, particularly when there are multiple queens per colony, which limits the transmission of copies of workers genes and increases potential conflicts between colony members. In this thesis, we investigated the link between social structure variations and conflicts, and explored the mechanisms involved in variation of colony queen number in ants. According to kin selection, workers should rear the brood they are most related to. In social Hymenoptera, males are haploid whereas females (workers and queens) are diploid. As a result, workers can be up to three times more related to females than males in some colonies, where they should consequently favour the production of females. In contrast, queens are equally related to daughters and sons in all types of colonies and therefore should favour a balanced sex ratio. In a meta-analysis across all studies of social Hymenoptera, we showed that colony sex ratio is generally largely influenced by workers. Hence, the evolution of social structures where queens and workers are equally related to males and females may contribute to decrease the conflict between the two castes over colony sex ratio. Another conflict between queens and workers can occur over male production. Many species contain workers that still have the ability to lay haploid eggs. In some social structures, workers are on average more related to sons of queens than to sons of other workers. As a result, workers should eliminate worker-laid eggs to favour queen-laid eggs. We showed that in the ant Formica selysi, workers eliminate more worker-laid than queen-laid eggs, independently of colony social structure. These results therefore suggest that worker policing can evolve independently from relatedness, potentially because of costs of worker reproduction at the colony-level. Colony queen number is a key parameter that influences relatedness between group members. Queen body size is generally linked to the success of independent colony foundation by single queens and may influence the number of queens in the new colony. In the ant F. selysi, single-queen colonies produce larger queens than multiple-queen colonies. We showed that this association results from genes or maternal effects transmitted to the eggs. However, we also found that queens produced in colonies of the two social forms did not differ in their general ability to found new colonies independently. Queen body size may also influence queen dispersal ability and constrain small queens to be re-adopted in their original nest after mating at proximity. We tested the acceptance of new queens in another ant species, Formica paralugubris, which has numerous queens per colony. Our results show that workers do not discriminate between nestmate and foreign queens, and more generally accept new queens at a limited rate. To conclude, this thesis shows that mechanisms influencing variation in colony queen number and the influence of these changes on conflict resolution are complex. Data gathered in this thesis therefore constitute a solid background for further research on the evolution and the maintenance of complex organisations in insect societies.

Inversion of crosshole seismic data in heterogenous environments : Comparison of waveform and ray-based approaches

High-resolution tomographic imaging of the shallow subsurface is becoming increasingly important for a wide range of environmental, hydrological and engineering applications. Because of their superior resolution power, their sensitivity to pertinent petrophysical parameters, and their far reaching complementarities, both seismic and georadar crosshole imaging are of particular importance. To date, corresponding approaches have largely relied on asymptotic, ray-based approaches, which only account for a very small part of the observed wavefields, inherently suffer from a limited resolution, and in complex environments may prove to be inadequate. These problems can potentially be alleviated through waveform inversion. We have developed an acoustic waveform inversion approach for crosshole seismic data whose kernel is based on a finite-difference time-domain (FDTD) solution of the 2-D acoustic wave equations. This algorithm is tested on and applied to synthetic data from seismic velocity models of increasing complexity and realism and the results are compared to those obtained using state-of-the-art ray-based traveltime tomography. Regardless of the heterogeneity of the underlying models, the waveform inversion approach has the potential of reliably resolving both the geometry and the acoustic properties of features of the size of less than half a dominant wavelength. Our results do, however, also indicate that, within their inherent resolution limits, ray-based approaches provide an effective and efficient means to obtain satisfactory tomographic reconstructions of the seismic velocity structure in the presence of mild to moderate heterogeneity and in absence of strong scattering. Conversely, the excess effort of waveform inversion provides the greatest benefits for the most heterogeneous, and arguably most realistic, environments where multiple scattering effects tend to be prevalent and ray-based methods lose most of their effectiveness.

Couples' Resolution of an Infertility Diagnosis Before Undergoing in Vitro Fertilization

Although the use of assisted reproductive technology has today become more familiar, the suffering associated with the experience of infertility remains. This study assesses the emotional resolution of couples faced with an infertility diagnosis by examining their narratives. Fifty-seven couples were recruited from fertility clinics to participate in a semistructured interview prior to in vitro fertilization. Two aspects of the couples' reactions to the infertility diagnosis were assessed: (1) each individual's capacity to acknowledge the emotional reality of the diagnosis (diagnosis resolution) and (2) the couple's ability to construct a shared meaning of the infertility diagnosis experience (narrative co-construction). Associations between these aspects and self-reported marital satisfaction, infertility-related stress, and diagnosis-related variables were analyzed. 73.7% of women and 61.4% of men had acknowledged the emotional reality of the diagnosis, and their scores for narrative co-construction were comparable to reference samples. Marital satisfaction, but not infertility-related stress, was associated with diagnosis resolution and narrative co-construction. The results indicate the importance of detecting couples with fewer individual and marital resources needed to face the reality of the diagnosis. A couple's capacity to perceive the infertility diagnosis as a shared problem is also essential for dealing with this common life event.

Towards a connectome mapping pipeline for neonates using high-resolution MP2RAGE and DTI

Exploring the anatomical and functional connectivities between different regions of the brain (the "Connectome") is a core challenge in neuroscience. While robust methods are available for the adult brain, mapping the connectome in neonates is highly challenging. The purpose of this pilot study is to present a methodological approach for analyzing structural connectivity of a neonate brain and to exploit the MP2RAGE sequence with its advantageous contrast properties

Risk assessment of recurrence in sporadic retinoblastoma using a molecular-based algorithm.

PURPOSE: Most RB1 mutations are unique and distributed throughout the RB1 gene. Their detection can be time-consuming and the yield especially low in cases of conservatively-treated sporadic unilateral retinoblastoma (Rb) patients. In order to identify patients with true risk of developing Rb, and to reduce the number of unnecessary examinations under anesthesia in all other cases, we developed a universal sensitive, efficient and cost-effective strategy based on intragenic haplotype analysis. METHODS: This algorithm allows the calculation of the a posteriori risk of developing Rb and takes into account (a) RB1 loss of heterozygosity in tumors, (b) preferential paternal origin of new germline mutations, (c) a priori risk derived from empirical data by Vogel, and (d) disease penetrance of 90% in most cases. We report the occurrence of Rb in first degree relatives of patients with sporadic Rb who visited the Jules Gonin Eye Hospital, Lausanne, Switzerland, from January 1994 to December 2006 compared to expected new cases of Rb using our algorithm. RESULTS: A total of 134 families with sporadic Rb were enrolled; testing was performed in 570 individuals and 99 patients younger than 4 years old were identified. We observed one new case of Rb. Using our algorithm, the cumulated total a posteriori risk of recurrence was 1.77. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first time that linkage analysis has been validated to monitor the risk of recurrence in sporadic Rb. This should be a useful tool in genetic counseling, especially when direct RB1 screening for mutations leaves a negative result or is unavailable.

Treatment algorithm for moderate to severe ulcerative colitis.

The care for a patient with ulcerative colitis (UC) remains challenging despite the fact that morbidity and mortality rates have been considerably reduced during the last 30 years. The traditional management with intravenous corticosteroids was modified by the introduction of ciclosporin and infliximab. In this review, we focus on the treatment of patients with moderate to severe UC. Four typical clinical scenarios are defined and discussed in detail. The treatment recommendations are based on current literature, published guidelines and reviews, and were discussed at a consensus meeting of Swiss experts in the field. Comprehensive treatment algorithms were developed, aimed for daily clinical practice.

The future key role of LC-high-resolution-MS analyses in clinical laboratories: a focus on quantification.

For the last decade, high-resolution (HR)-MS has been associated with qualitative analyses while triple quadrupole MS has been associated with routine quantitative analyses. However, a shift of this paradigm is taking place: quantitative and qualitative analyses will be increasingly performed by HR-MS, and it will become the common 'language' for most mass spectrometrists. Most analyses will be performed by full-scan acquisitions recording 'all' ions entering the HR-MS with subsequent construction of narrow-width extracted-ion chromatograms. Ions will be available for absolute quantification, profiling and data mining. In parallel to quantification, metabotyping will be the next step in clinical LC-MS analyses because it should help in personalized medicine. This article is aimed to help analytical chemists who perform targeted quantitative acquisitions with triple quadrupole MS make the transition to quantitative and qualitative analyses using HR-MS. Guidelines for the acceptance criteria of mass accuracy and for the determination of mass extraction windows in quantitative analyses are proposed.

Flow-R, a model for susceptibility mapping of debris flows and other gravitational hazards at a regional scale

The development of susceptibility maps for debris flows is of primary importance due to population pressure in hazardous zones. However, hazard assessment by processbased modelling at a regional scale is difficult due to the complex nature of the phenomenon, the variability of local controlling factors, and the uncertainty in modelling parameters. A regional assessment must consider a simplified approach that is not highly parameter dependant and that can provide zonation with minimum data requirements. A distributed empirical model has thus been developed for regional susceptibility assessments using essentially a digital elevation model (DEM). The model is called Flow-R for Flow path assessment of gravitational hazards at a Regional scale (available free of charge under www.flow-r.org) and has been successfully applied to different case studies in various countries with variable data quality. It provides a substantial basis for a preliminary susceptibility assessment at a regional scale. The model was also found relevant to assess other natural hazards such as rockfall, snow avalanches and floods. The model allows for automatic source area delineation, given user criteria, and for the assessment of the propagation extent based on various spreading algorithms and simple frictional laws.We developed a new spreading algorithm, an improved version of Holmgren's direction algorithm, that is less sensitive to small variations of the DEM and that is avoiding over-channelization, and so produces more realistic extents. The choices of the datasets and the algorithms are open to the user, which makes it compliant for various applications and dataset availability. Amongst the possible datasets, the DEM is the only one that is really needed for both the source area delineation and the propagation assessment; its quality is of major importance for the results accuracy. We consider a 10m DEM resolution as a good compromise between processing time and quality of results. However, valuable results have still been obtained on the basis of lower quality DEMs with 25m resolution.

High-resolution seismic images of potentially seismogenic structures beneath the northwest Canterbury Plains, New Zealand

The transpressional boundary between the Australian and Pacific plates in the central South Island of New Zealand comprises the Alpine Fault and a broad region of distributed strain concentrated in the Southern Alps but encompassing regions further to the east, including the northwest Canterbury Plains. Low to moderate levels of seismicity (e. g., 2 > M 5 events since 1974 and 2 > M 4.0 in 2009) and Holocene sediments offset or disrupted along rare exposed active fault segments are evidence for ongoing tectonism in the northwest plains, the surface topography of which is remarkably flat and even. Because the geology underlying the late Quaternary alluvial fan deposits that carpet most of the plains is not established, the detailed tectonic evolution of this region and the potential for larger earthquakes is only poorly understood. To address these issues, we have processed and interpreted high-resolution (2.5 m subsurface sampling interval) seismic data acquired along lines strategically located relative to extensive rock exposures to the north, west, and southwest and rare exposures to the east. Geological information provided by these rock exposures offer important constraints on the interpretation of the seismic data. The processed seismic reflection sections image a variably thick layer of generally undisturbed younger (i.e., < 24 ka) Quaternary alluvial sediments unconformably overlying an older (> 59 ka) Quaternary sedimentary sequence that shows evidence of moderate faulting and folding during and subsequent to deposition. These Quaternary units are in unconformable contact with Late Cretaceous-Tertiary interbedded sedimentary and volcanic rocks that are highly faulted, folded, and tilted. The lowest imaged unit is largely reflection-free Permian Triassic basement rocks. Quaternary-age deformation has affected all the rocks underlying the younger alluvial sediments, and there is evidence for ongoing deformation. Eight primary and numerous secondary faults as well as a major anticlinal fold are revealed on the seismic sections. Folded sedimentary and volcanic units are observed in the hanging walls and footwalls of most faults. Five of the primary faults represent plausible extensions of mapped faults, three of which are active. The major anticlinal fold is the probable continuation of known active structure. A magnitude 7.1 earthquake occurred on 4 September 2010 near the southeastern edge of our study area. This predominantly right-lateral strike-slip event and numerous aftershocks (ten with magnitudes >= 5 within one week of the main event) highlight the primary message of our paper: that the generally flat and topographically featureless Canterbury Plains is underlain by a network of active faults that have the potential to generate significant earthquakes.

Early detection of microcirculatory perfusion changes with a high resolution, real time laser Doppler imaging camera--frostbite case study.

A 41-year-old male presented with severe frostbite that was monitored clinically and with a new laser Doppler imaging (LDI) camera that records arbitrary microcirculatory perfusion units (1-256 arbitrary perfusion units (APU's)). LDI monitoring detected perfusion differences in hand and foot not seen visually. On day 4-5 after injury, LDI showed that while fingers did not experience any significant perfusion change (average of 31±25 APUs on day 5), the patient's left big toe did (from 17±29 APUs day 4 to 103±55 APUs day 5). These changes in regional perfusion were not detectable by visual examination. On day 53 postinjury, all fingers with reduced perfusion by LDI were amputated, while the toe could be salvaged. This case clearly demonstrates that insufficient microcirculatory perfusion can be identified using LDI in ways which visual examination alone does not permit, allowing prognosis of clinical outcomes. Such information may also be used to develop improved treatment approaches.