Evaluation of errors in alpine skiing video analysis

INTRODUCTION: Video records are widely used to analyze performance in alpine skiing at professional or amateur level. Parts of these analyses require the labeling of some movements (i.e. determining when specific events occur). If differences among coaches and differences for the same coach between different dates are expected, they have never been quantified. Moreover, knowing these differences is essential to determine which parameters reliable should be used. This study aimed to quantify the precision and the repeatability for alpine skiing coaches of various levels, as it is done in other fields (Koo et al, 2005). METHODS: A software similar to commercialized products was designed to allow video analyses. 15 coaches divided into 3 groups (5 amateur coaches (G1), 5 professional instructors (G2) and 5 semi-professional coaches (G3)) were enrolled. They were asked to label 15 timing parameters (TP) according to the Swiss ski manual (Terribilini et al, 2001) for each curve. TP included phases (initiation, steering I-II), body and ski movements (e.g. rotation, weighting, extension, balance). Three video sequences sampled at 25 Hz were used and one curve per video was labeled. The first video was used to familiarize the analyzer to the software. The two other videos, corresponding to slalom and giant slalom, were considered for the analysis. G1 realized twice the analysis (A1 and A2) at different dates and TP were randomized between both analyses. Reference TP were considered as the median of G2 and G3 at A1. The precision was defined as the RMS difference between individual TP and reference TP, whereas the repeatability was calculated as the RMS difference between individual TP at A1 and at A2. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION: For G1, G2 and G3, a precision of +/-5.6 frames, +/-3.0 and +/-2.0 frames, was respectively obtained. These results showed that G2 was more precise than G1, and G3 more precise than G2, were in accordance with group levels. The repeatability for G1 was +/-3.1 frames. Furthermore, differences among TP precision were observed, considering G2 and G3, with largest differences of +/-5.9 frames for "body counter rotation movement in steering phase II", and of 0.8 frame for "ski unweighting in initiation phase". CONCLUSION: This study quantified coach ability to label video in term of precision and repeatability. The best precision was obtained for G3 and was of +/-0.08s, which corresponds to +/-6.5% of the curve cycle. Regarding the repeatability, we obtained a result of +/-0.12s for G1, corresponding to +/-12% of the curve cycle. The repeatability of G2 and G3 are expected to be lower than the precision of G1 and the corresponding repeatability will be assessed soon. In conclusion, our results indicate that the labeling of video records is reliable for some TP, whereas caution is required for others. REFERENCES Koo S, Gold MD, Andriacchi TP. (2005). Osteoarthritis, 13, 782-789. Terribilini M, et al. (2001). Swiss Ski manual, 29-46. IASS, Lucerne.

Residence time, expansion toward the equator in the invaded range and native range size matter to climatic niche shifts in non-native species

Aim Identifying climatic niche shifts and their drivers is important to accurately predict the risk of biological invasions. The niches of non-native plants and birds have recently been assessed in large-scale multi-species studies, but such large-scale tests are lacking for non-native reptiles and amphibians (herpetofauna). Furthermore, little is known about the factors contributing to niche shifts when they occur. Based on the occurrence of 71 reptile and amphibian species, we compared native and non-native realized niches in 101 invaded ranges at a worldwide scale and identified the factors that affect niche shifts. Location The world except the Antarctic. Methods We assessed climatic niche dynamics in a gridded environmental space allowing the quantification of niche overlap and expansion into climatic conditions not colonized by the species in their native range. We analyzed the factors affecting niche shifts using a model averaging approach based on generalized linear mixed-effects models. Results Approximately 57% of the invaded ranges (51% for amphibians and 61% for reptiles) showed niche shifts (≥10% expansion in the realized climatic niche). Island endemics, species introduced to Oceania and invaded ranges outside the native biogeographic realm showed a higher proportion of niche shifts. Niche shifts were more likely for species that had smaller native range sizes, were introduced earlier into a new range or invaded areas located at lower latitudes than the native range. Main conclusions The proportion of niche shifts for non-native herpetofauna was higher than those for Holarctic non-native plants and European non-native birds. The 'climate matching hypothesis' should be used with caution for species shifting their niche because it could underestimate the risk of their establishment.

Building the niche through time: using 13,000 years of data to predict the effects of climate change on three tree species in Europe

Aim Species distribution models (SDMs) based on current species ranges underestimate the potential distribution when projected in time and/or space. A multi-temporal model calibration approach has been suggested as an alternative, and we evaluate this using 13,000 years of data. Location Europe. Methods We used fossil-based records of presence for Picea abies, Abies alba and Fagus sylvatica and six climatic variables for the period 13,000 to 1000yr bp. To measure the contribution of each 1000-year time step to the total niche of each species (the niche measured by pooling all the data), we employed a principal components analysis (PCA) calibrated with data over the entire range of possible climates. Then we projected both the total niche and the partial niches from single time frames into the PCA space, and tested if the partial niches were more similar to the total niche than random. Using an ensemble forecasting approach, we calibrated SDMs for each time frame and for the pooled database. We projected each model to current climate and evaluated the results against current pollen data. We also projected all models into the future. Results Niche similarity between the partial and the total-SDMs was almost always statistically significant and increased through time. SDMs calibrated from single time frames gave different results when projected to current climate, providing evidence of a change in the species realized niches through time. Moreover, they predicted limited climate suitability when compared with the total-SDMs. The same results were obtained when projected to future climates. Main conclusions The realized climatic niche of species differed for current and future climates when SDMs were calibrated considering different past climates. Building the niche as an ensemble through time represents a way forward to a better understanding of a species' range and its ecology in a changing climate.

The estimation of PMP and PMF on alpine basins in Switzerland

This paper presents a very fine grid hydrological model based on the spatiotemporal repartition of precipitation and on the topography. The goal is to estimate the flood on a catchment area, using a Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) leading to a Probable Maximum Flood (PMF). The spatiotemporal distribution of the precipitation was realized using six clouds modeled by the advection-diffusion equation. The equation shows the movement of the clouds over the terrain and also gives the evolution of the rain intensity in time. This hydrological modeling is followed by a hydraulic modeling of the surface and subterranean flows, done considering the factors that contribute to the hydrological cycle, such as the infiltration, the exfiltration and the snowmelt. This model was applied to several Swiss basins using measured rain, with results showing a good correlation between the simulated and observed flows. This good correlation proves that the model is valid and gives us the confidence that the results can be extrapolated to phenomena of extreme rainfall of PMP type. In this article we present some results obtained using a PMP rainfall and the developed model.

Small access (30F) clinical central venous smart cannulation: is it adequate?

OBJECTIVES: To assess the performance of 45F vs. 36F smartcanula in CPB with gravity drainage alone. METHODS: Twenty patients were randomly assigned to two groups receiving for venous drainage a smartcanula which is collapsed over a mandrel for trans-atrial insertion into the inferior vena cava and expanded in situ to either 45F or 36F. RESULTS: Valve replacement/repair was realized in 7/10 and/or CABG in 6/10 for 36F (69+/-13 years) vs. 5/10 and 5/10, respectively, for 45F (63+/-11 years: NS). Body weight and surface area (BSA) were 83+/-9 kg (1.9+/-0.2 m2, max 2.2 m2) for 36F vs. 79+/-6 kg: NS (1.9+/-0.1 m2 (NS), max 2.1 m2) for 45F. Insertion and access orifice diameter (area) was 6 mm and 10 mm (78.5 mm2) for the 36F vs. 6 mm and 13 mm (132 mm2) for the 45F (+69%). Calculated target pump flow (2.4 l/min/m2) was 4.7+/-0.4 l/min for 36F vs. 4.5+/-0.3 l/min for 45F. Achieved pump flow accounted for 5.0+/-0.3 l/min for 36F (8% above target) vs. 4.8+/-0.3 l/min for 45F (8% above target): NS. The water balance during the pump run (clear volume added minus hemofilter and urine output) was 2.2+/-0.3 l for 36F vs. 2.0 l for 45F: NS. CONCLUSION: Due to its 'open' wall (the vena cava provides the seal), its reduced wall thickness (range: 0.0-0.4 mm), and its self-expanding design, the 36F smartcanula requiring a 30F access orifice has sufficient drainage capacity by gravity alone for full CPB in adults with a BSA up to 2.2 mm2.

Cross-Cultural Adaptation and Validation of the Spinal Function Sort (SFS) for French- and German-Speaking Patients with Back Complaints

Aim: Functional subjective evaluation through questionnaire is fundamental, but not often realized in patients with back complaints, notably because of lack of validated tools, in accordance with recognized psychometric criteria. The Spinal Function Sort (SFS), developed according to actual standards, was only validated in English. The aim of this study is to translate, adapt and validate the French and German version of the SFS.Method and material: The translation and cross-cultural adaptation were performed following the methodology proposed by the American Association of Orthopedist Surgeon. A total of 344 patients, presenting varied back complaints (especially degenerative and traumatic), took part in this study in a tertiary French- (n=87; mean age 44y; 17 women) and German-speaking (n=257; mean age 41y; 53 women) center. Test-retest reliability was quantified using the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) and construct validity was assessed by estimating the Pearson's correlation with the SF-36 physical and mental scales, the Visual Analogue Scale for Pain Intensity (VAS), and subscales of the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS).Results: Respectively for the French and German version, ICC were 0.98 and 0.94. Correlations 0.63 and 0.67 with the SF-36 Physical Functioning subscale; 0.60 and 0.52 with the SF-36 Physical Summary Scale ; -0.33 and -0.51 with the VAS ; -0.08 and 0.25 with the SF-36 Mental Health scale; 0.01 and 0.28 with the SF-36 Mental Summary Scale; -0.26 and -0.42 with the HADS depression; -0.17 and -0.45 with the HADS anxiety.Discussion: For both the French and German version of the SFS, the reliability was excellent. Convergent construct validity with SF-36 physical scales is good, moderated with the VAS. We find out a low correlation with SF-36 mental scales (divergent construct validity). We find out a low correlation with HADS subscales in the French version, and a moderate one in the German version. Selection bias, chronicity of the complaints, as well as cultural differences could explain these results. In conclusion, both the French and German version of the SFS are valid and reliable for evaluation of perceived functional capacity for patients with back complaints.

Do geographic distribution, niche property and life form explain plants' vulnerability to global change?

We modelled the future distribution in 2050 of 975 endemic plant species in southern Africa distributed among seven life forms, including new methodological insights improving the accuracy and ecological realism of predictions of global changes studies by: (i) using only endemic species as a way to capture the full realized niche of species, (ii) considering the direct impact of human pressure on landscape and biodiversity jointly with climate, and (iii) taking species' migration into account. Our analysis shows important promises for predicting the impacts of climate change in conjunction with land transformation. We have shown that the endemic flora of Southern Africa on average decreases with 41% in species richness among habitats and with 39% on species distribution range for the most optimistic scenario. We also compared the patterns of species' sensitivity with global change across life forms, using ecological and geographic characteristics of species. We demonstrate here that species and life form vulnerability to global changes can be partly explained according to species' (i) geographical distribution along climatic and biogeographic gradients, like climate anomalies, (ii) niche breadth or (iii) proximity to barrier preventing migration. Our results confirm that the sensitivity of a given species to global environmental changes depends upon its geographical distribution and ecological proprieties, and makes it possible to estimate a priori its potential sensitivity to these changes.

A wearable system to time gate crossing during alpine skiing slalom

INTRODUCTION: In alpine skiing, chronometry analysis is currently the most common tool to assess performance. It is widely used to rank competitors during races, as well as to manage athletes training and to evaluate material. Usually, this measurement is accurately realized using timing cells. Nevertheless, these devices are too complex and expensive to allow chronometry of every gates crossing. On the other side, differential GPS can be used for measuring gate crossing time (Waegli et al). However, this is complex (e.g. recording gate position with GPS) and mainly used in research applications. The aim of the study was to propose a wearable system to time gates crossing during alpine skiing slalom (SL), which is suitable for routine uses. METHODS: The proposed system was composed of a 3D accelerometer (ADXL320®, Analog Device, USA) placed at the sacrum of the athlete, a matrix of force sensors (Flexiforce®, Tekscan, USA) fixed on the right shin guard and a data logger (Physilog®, BioAGM, Switzerland). The sensors were sampled at 500 Hz. The crossing time were calculated in two phases. First, the accelerometer was used to detect the curves by considering the maximum of the mediolateral peak acceleration. Then, the force sensors were used to detect the impacts with the gates by considering maximum force variation. In case of non impact, the detection was realized based on the acceleration and features measured at the other gates. In order to assess the efficiency of the system, two different SL were monitored twice for two world cup level skiers, a male SL expert and a female downhill expert. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION: The combination of the accelerometer and force sensors allowed to clearly identify the gate crossing times. When comparing the runs of the SL expert and the downhill expert, we noticed that the SL expert was faster. For example for the first SL, the overall difference between the best run of each athlete was of 5.47s. At each gate, the SL expert increased the time difference slower at the beginning (0.27s/gate) than at the end (0.34s/gate). Furthermore, when comparing the runs of the SL expert, a maximum time difference of 20ms at each gate was noticed. This showed high repeatability skills of the SL expert. In opposite, the downhill expert with a maximum difference time of 1s at each gate was clearly less repeatable. Both skiers were not disturbed by the system. CONCLUSION: This study proposed a new wearable system to automatically time gates crossing during alpine skiing slalom combining force and accelerometer sensors. The system was evaluated with two professional world cup skiers and showed a high potential. This system could be extended to time other parameters. REFERENCES Waegli A, Skaloud J (2007). Inside GNSS, Spring, 24-34.

Prediction of plant species distributions across six millennia.

The usefulness of species distribution models (SDMs) in predicting impacts of climate change on biodiversity is difficult to assess because changes in species ranges may take decades or centuries to occur. One alternative way to evaluate the predictive ability of SDMs across time is to compare their predictions with data on past species distributions. We use data on plant distributions, fossil pollen and current and mid-Holocene climate to test the ability of SDMs to predict past climate-change impacts. We find that species showing little change in the estimated position of their realized niche, with resulting good model performance, tend to be dominant competitors for light. Different mechanisms appear to be responsible for among-species differences in model performance. Confidence in predictions of the impacts of climate change could be improved by selecting species with characteristics that suggest little change is expected in the relationships between species occurrence and climate patterns.

Assessment of inflammatory Bowel Disease patient's needs and problems from a nursing perspective

BACKGROUND: In this study, we aimed at assessing Inflammatory Bowel Disease patients' needs and current nursing practice to investigate to what extent consensus statements (European Crohn's and Colitis Organization) on the nursing roles in caring for patients with IBD concur with local practice. METHODS: We used a mixed-method convergent design to combine quantitative data prospectively collected in the Swiss IBD cohort study and qualitative data from structured interviews with IBD healthcare experts. Symptoms, quality of life, and anxiety and depression scores were retrieved from physician charts and patient self-reported questionnaires. Descriptive analyses were performed based on quantitative and qualitative data. RESULTS: 230 patients of a single center were included, 60% of patients were males, and median age was 40 (range 18-85). The prevalence of abdominal pain was 42%. Self-reported data were obtained from 75 out of 230 patients. General health was perceived significantly lower compared with the general population (p < 0.001). Prevalence of tiredness was 73%; sleep problems, 78%; issues related to work, 20%; sexual constraints, 35%; diarrhea, 67%; being afraid of not finding a bathroom, 42%; depression, 11%; and anxiety symptoms, 23%. According to experts' interviews, the consensus statements are found mostly relevant with many recommendations that are not yet realized in clinical practice. CONCLUSION: Identified prevalence may help clinicians in detecting patients at risk and improve patient management. © 2015 S. Karger AG, Basel.

A model for the evolution of reinforcement learning in fluctuating games

Many species are able to learn to associate behaviours with rewards as this gives fitness advantages in changing environments. Social interactions between population members may, however, require more cognitive abilities than simple trial-and-error learning, in particular the capacity to make accurate hypotheses about the material payoff consequences of alternative action combinations. It is unclear in this context whether natural selection necessarily favours individuals to use information about payoffs associated with nontried actions (hypothetical payoffs), as opposed to simple reinforcement of realized payoff. Here, we develop an evolutionary model in which individuals are genetically determined to use either trial-and-error learning or learning based on hypothetical reinforcements, and ask what is the evolutionarily stable learning rule under pairwise symmetric two-action stochastic repeated games played over the individual's lifetime. We analyse through stochastic approximation theory and simulations the learning dynamics on the behavioural timescale, and derive conditions where trial-and-error learning outcompetes hypothetical reinforcement learning on the evolutionary timescale. This occurs in particular under repeated cooperative interactions with the same partner. By contrast, we find that hypothetical reinforcement learners tend to be favoured under random interactions, but stable polymorphisms can also obtain where trial-and-error learners are maintained at a low frequency. We conclude that specific game structures can select for trial-and-error learning even in the absence of costs of cognition, which illustrates that cost-free increased cognition can be counterselected under social interactions.

Soft tissue artifact distribution on lower limbs during treadmill gait: Influence of skin markers' location on cluster design.

Segment poses and joint kinematics estimated from skin markers are highly affected by soft tissue artifact (STA) and its rigid motion component (STARM). While four marker-clusters could decrease the STA non-rigid motion during gait activity, other data, such as marker location or STARM patterns, would be crucial to compensate for STA in clinical gait analysis. The present study proposed 1) to devise a comprehensive average map illustrating the spatial distribution of STA for the lower limb during treadmill gait and 2) to analyze STARM from four marker-clusters assigned to areas extracted from spatial distribution. All experiments were realized using a stereophotogrammetric system to track the skin markers and a bi-plane fluoroscopic system to track the knee prosthesis. Computation of the spatial distribution of STA was realized on 19 subjects using 80 markers apposed on the lower limb. Three different areas were extracted from the distribution map of the thigh. The marker displacement reached a maximum of 24.9mm and 15.3mm in the proximal areas of thigh and shank, respectively. STARM was larger on thigh than the shank with RMS error in cluster orientations between 1.2° and 8.1°. The translation RMS errors were also large (3.0mm to 16.2mm). No marker-cluster correctly compensated for STARM. However, the coefficient of multiple correlations exhibited excellent scores between skin and bone kinematics, as well as for STARM between subjects. These correlations highlight dependencies between STARM and the kinematic components. This study provides new insights for modeling STARM for gait activity.

Incidence and consequence of major bleeding in primary percutaneous intervention for ST-elevation myocardial infarction in the era of radial access: an analysis of the international randomized Acute myocardial infarction Treated with primary angioplasty and intravenous enoxaparin Or unfractionated heparin to Lower ischemic and bleeding events at short- and Long-term follow-up trial.

AIMS: The aims of the study are to compare the outcome with and without major bleeding and to identify the independent correlates of major bleeding complications and mortality in patients described in the ATOLL study. METHODS: The ATOLL study included 910 patients randomly assigned to either 0.5 mg/kg intravenous enoxaparin or unfractionated heparin before primary percutaneous coronary intervention. Incidence of major bleeding and ischemic end points was assessed at 1 month, and mortality, at 1 and 6 months. Patients with and without major bleeding complication were compared. A multivariate model of bleeding complications at 1 month and mortality at 6 months was realized. Intention-to-treat and per-protocol analyses were performed. RESULTS: The most frequent bleeding site appears to be the gastrointestinal tract. Age >75 years, cardiac arrest, and the use of insulin or >1 heparin emerged as independent correlates of major bleeding at 1 month. Patients presenting with major bleeding had significantly higher rates of adverse ischemic complications. Mortality at 6 months was higher in bleeders. Major bleeding was found to be one of the independent correlates of 6-month mortality. The addition or mixing of several anticoagulant drugs was an independent factor of major bleeding despite the predominant use of radial access. CONCLUSIONS: This study shows that major bleeding is independently associated with poor outcome, increasing ischemic events, and mortality in primary percutaneous coronary intervention performed mostly with radial access.

Meaning in life and perceived quality of life in Switzerland: results of a representative survey in the German, French and Italian regions.

BACKGROUND: The concept of meaning in life (MIL) has become a central one in recent years, particularly in psycho-oncology and palliative care. The Schedule for Meaning in Life Evaluation (SMILE) has been developed to allow individuals to choose the life areas that they consider to be important for their own MIL. This approach relates to the "World Health Organisation" definition of quality of life (QOL) as an individual's perception of his own position. The aims of this study were (i) to assess MIL in a representative sample of the Swiss population according to the three linguistic regions and (ii) to evaluate whether MIL constitutes a significant determinant of the perceived QOL. METHODS: A telephone survey of the Swiss population, performed by a professional survey company, was conducted between November and December 2013. The interview included the SMILE, perceived QOL (0-10) and health status (1-5), and various sociodemographic variables. In the SMILE, an index of weighting (IOW, 20-100), an index of satisfaction (IOS, 0-100), and a total SMILE index (IOWS, 0-100) are calculated from the areas mentioned by the participants as providing MIL. RESULTS: Among the 6671 telephonic contacts realized, 1015 (15 %) participants completed the survey: 405 French, 400 German and 210 Italian participants. "Family" (80.2 %), "occupation/work" (51 %), and "social relations" (43.3 %) were the most cited MIL-relevant categories. Italian participants listed "health" more frequently than German and French participants (50.4 % vs 31.5 % and 24.8 % respectively, χ(2) = 12.229, p = .002). Age, gender, education, employment, and marital status significantly influenced either the MIL scores or the MIL-relevant categories. Linear regression analyses indicate that 24.3 % of the QOL variance (p = .000) is explained by health status (B = .609, IC = .490-.728, p = .000), MIL (B = .034, IC = .028-.041, p = .000) and socioeconomic status (F = 11.01, p = .000). CONCLUSION: The major finding of our analysis highlights the positive and significant influence of MIL on the perceived QOL in a representative sample of a general, multilingual and multicultural population. This result indicates that the existential dimension is not only determinant for QOL in some critical life events, as shown e.g. in psycho-oncology and palliative care, but also in everyday life.

Assessing the use of very high resolution data to predict species distribution in a mountain environment

Nowadays, Species Distribution Models (SDMs) are a widely used tool. Using different statistical approaches these models reconstruct the realized niche of a species using presence data and a set of variables, often topoclimatic. There utilization range is quite large from understanding single species requirements, to the creation of nature reserve based on species hotspots, or modeling of climate change impact, etc... Most of the time these models are using variables at a resolution of 50km x 50km or 1 km x 1 km. However in some cases these models are used with resolutions below the kilometer scale and thus called high resolution models (100 m x 100 m or 25 m x 25 m). Quite recently a new kind of data has emerged enabling precision up to lm x lm and thus allowing very high resolution modeling. However these new variables are very costly and need an important amount of time to be processed. This is especially the case when these variables are used in complex calculation like models projections over large areas. Moreover the importance of very high resolution data in SDMs has not been assessed yet and is not well understood. Some basic knowledge on what drive species presence-absences is still missing. Indeed, it is not clear whether in mountain areas like the Alps coarse topoclimatic gradients are driving species distributions or if fine scale temperature or topography are more important or if their importance can be neglected when balance to competition or stochasticity. In this thesis I investigated the importance of very high resolution data (2-5m) in species distribution models using either very high resolution topographic, climatic or edaphic variables over a 2000m elevation gradient in the Western Swiss Alps. I also investigated more local responses of these variables for a subset of species living in this area at two precise elvation belts. During this thesis I showed that high resolution data necessitates very good datasets (species and variables for the models) to produce satisfactory results. Indeed, in mountain areas, temperature is the most important factor driving species distribution and needs to be modeled at very fine resolution instead of being interpolated over large surface to produce satisfactory results. Despite the instinctive idea that topographic should be very important at high resolution, results are mitigated. However looking at the importance of variables over a large gradient buffers the importance of the variables. Indeed topographic factors have been shown to be highly important at the subalpine level but their importance decrease at lower elevations. Wether at the mountane level edaphic and land use factors are more important high resolution topographic data is more imporatant at the subalpine level. Finally the biggest improvement in the models happens when edaphic variables are added. Indeed, adding soil variables is of high importance and variables like pH are overpassing the usual topographic variables in SDMs in term of importance in the models. To conclude high resolution is very important in modeling but necessitate very good datasets. Only increasing the resolution of the usual topoclimatic predictors is not sufficient and the use of edaphic predictors has been highlighted as fundamental to produce significantly better models. This is of primary importance, especially if these models are used to reconstruct communities or as basis for biodiversity assessments. -- Ces dernières années, l'utilisation des modèles de distribution d'espèces (SDMs) a continuellement augmenté. Ces modèles utilisent différents outils statistiques afin de reconstruire la niche réalisée d'une espèce à l'aide de variables, notamment climatiques ou topographiques, et de données de présence récoltées sur le terrain. Leur utilisation couvre de nombreux domaines allant de l'étude de l'écologie d'une espèce à la reconstruction de communautés ou à l'impact du réchauffement climatique. La plupart du temps, ces modèles utilisent des occur-rences issues des bases de données mondiales à une résolution plutôt large (1 km ou même 50 km). Certaines bases de données permettent cependant de travailler à haute résolution, par conséquent de descendre en dessous de l'échelle du kilomètre et de travailler avec des résolutions de 100 m x 100 m ou de 25 m x 25 m. Récemment, une nouvelle génération de données à très haute résolution est apparue et permet de travailler à l'échelle du mètre. Les variables qui peuvent être générées sur la base de ces nouvelles données sont cependant très coûteuses et nécessitent un temps conséquent quant à leur traitement. En effet, tout calcul statistique complexe, comme des projections de distribution d'espèces sur de larges surfaces, demande des calculateurs puissants et beaucoup de temps. De plus, les facteurs régissant la distribution des espèces à fine échelle sont encore mal connus et l'importance de variables à haute résolution comme la microtopographie ou la température dans les modèles n'est pas certaine. D'autres facteurs comme la compétition ou la stochasticité naturelle pourraient avoir une influence toute aussi forte. C'est dans ce contexte que se situe mon travail de thèse. J'ai cherché à comprendre l'importance de la haute résolution dans les modèles de distribution d'espèces, que ce soit pour la température, la microtopographie ou les variables édaphiques le long d'un important gradient d'altitude dans les Préalpes vaudoises. J'ai également cherché à comprendre l'impact local de certaines variables potentiellement négligées en raison d'effets confondants le long du gradient altitudinal. Durant cette thèse, j'ai pu monter que les variables à haute résolution, qu'elles soient liées à la température ou à la microtopographie, ne permettent qu'une amélioration substantielle des modèles. Afin de distinguer une amélioration conséquente, il est nécessaire de travailler avec des jeux de données plus importants, tant au niveau des espèces que des variables utilisées. Par exemple, les couches climatiques habituellement interpolées doivent être remplacées par des couches de température modélisées à haute résolution sur la base de données de terrain. Le fait de travailler le long d'un gradient de température de 2000m rend naturellement la température très importante au niveau des modèles. L'importance de la microtopographie est négligeable par rapport à la topographie à une résolution de 25m. Cependant, lorsque l'on regarde à une échelle plus locale, la haute résolution est une variable extrêmement importante dans le milieu subalpin. À l'étage montagnard par contre, les variables liées aux sols et à l'utilisation du sol sont très importantes. Finalement, les modèles de distribution d'espèces ont été particulièrement améliorés par l'addition de variables édaphiques, principalement le pH, dont l'importance supplante ou égale les variables topographique lors de leur ajout aux modèles de distribution d'espèces habituels.