Three Essays on the Formation and Impact of Economic Policy

Introduction In my thesis I argue that economic policy is all about economics and politics. Consequently, analysing and understanding economic policy ideally has at least two parts. The economics part, which is centered around the expected impact of a specific policy on the real economy both in terms of efficiency and equity. The insights of this part point into which direction the fine-tuning of economic policies should go. However, fine-tuning of economic policies will be most likely subject to political constraints. That is why, in the politics part, a much better understanding can be gained by taking into account how the incentives of politicians and special interest groups as well as the role played by different institutional features affect the formation of economic policies. The first part and chapter of my thesis concentrates on the efficiency-related impact of economic policies: how does corporate income taxation in general, and corporate income tax progressivity in specific, affect the creation of new firms? Reduced progressivity and flat-rate taxes are in vogue. By 2009, 22 countries are operating flat-rate income tax systems, as do 7 US states and 14 Swiss cantons (for corporate income only). Tax reform proposals in the spirit of the "flat tax" model typically aim to reduce three parameters: the average tax burden, the progressivity of the tax schedule, and the complexity of the tax code. In joint work, Marius Brülhart and I explore the implications of changes in these three parameters on entrepreneurial activity, measured by counts of firm births in a panel of Swiss municipalities. Our results show that lower average tax rates and reduced complexity of the tax code promote firm births. Controlling for these effects, reduced progressivity inhibits firm births. Our reading of these results is that tax progressivity has an insurance effect that facilitates entrepreneurial risk taking. The positive effects of lower tax levels and reduced complexity are estimated to be significantly stronger than the negative effect of reduced progressivity. To the extent that firm births reflect desirable entrepreneurial dynamism, it is not the flattening of tax schedules that is key to successful tax reforms, but the lowering of average tax burdens and the simplification of tax codes. Flatness per se is of secondary importance and even appears to be detrimental to firm births. The second part of my thesis, which corresponds to the second and third chapter, concentrates on how economic policies are formed. By the nature of the analysis, these two chapters draw on a broader literature than the first chapter. Both economists and political scientists have done extensive research on how economic policies are formed. Thereby, researchers in both disciplines have recognised the importance of special interest groups trying to influence policy-making through various channels. In general, economists base their analysis on a formal and microeconomically founded approach, while abstracting from institutional details. In contrast, political scientists' frameworks are generally richer in terms of institutional features but lack the theoretical rigour of economists' approaches. I start from the economist's point of view. However, I try to borrow as much as possible from the findings of political science to gain a better understanding of how economic policies are formed in reality. In the second chapter, I take a theoretical approach and focus on the institutional policy framework to explore how interactions between different political institutions affect the outcome of trade policy in presence of special interest groups' lobbying. Standard political economy theory treats the government as a single institutional actor which sets tariffs by trading off social welfare against contributions from special interest groups seeking industry-specific protection from imports. However, these models lack important (institutional) features of reality. That is why, in my model, I split up the government into a legislative and executive branch which can both be lobbied by special interest groups. Furthermore, the legislative has the option to delegate its trade policy authority to the executive. I allow the executive to compensate the legislative in exchange for delegation. Despite ample anecdotal evidence, bargaining over delegation of trade policy authority has not yet been formally modelled in the literature. I show that delegation has an impact on policy formation in that it leads to lower equilibrium tariffs compared to a standard model without delegation. I also show that delegation will only take place if the lobby is not strong enough to prevent it. Furthermore, the option to delegate increases the bargaining power of the legislative at the expense of the lobbies. Therefore, the findings of this model can shed a light on why the U.S. Congress often practices delegation to the executive. In the final chapter of my thesis, my coauthor, Antonio Fidalgo, and I take a narrower approach and focus on the individual politician level of policy-making to explore how connections to private firms and networks within parliament affect individual politicians' decision-making. Theories in the spirit of the model of the second chapter show how campaign contributions from lobbies to politicians can influence economic policies. There exists an abundant empirical literature that analyses ties between firms and politicians based on campaign contributions. However, the evidence on the impact of campaign contributions is mixed, at best. In our paper, we analyse an alternative channel of influence in the shape of personal connections between politicians and firms through board membership. We identify a direct effect of board membership on individual politicians' voting behaviour and an indirect leverage effect when politicians with board connections influence non-connected peers. We assess the importance of these two effects using a vote in the Swiss parliament on a government bailout of the national airline, Swissair, in 2001, which serves as a natural experiment. We find that both the direct effect of connections to firms and the indirect leverage effect had a strong and positive impact on the probability that a politician supported the government bailout.

Dynamical modeling and analysis of large cellular regulatory networks.

The dynamical analysis of large biological regulatory networks requires the development of scalable methods for mathematical modeling. Following the approach initially introduced by Thomas, we formalize the interactions between the components of a network in terms of discrete variables, functions, and parameters. Model simulations result in directed graphs, called state transition graphs. We are particularly interested in reachability properties and asymptotic behaviors, which correspond to terminal strongly connected components (or "attractors") in the state transition graph. A well-known problem is the exponential increase of the size of state transition graphs with the number of network components, in particular when using the biologically realistic asynchronous updating assumption. To address this problem, we have developed several complementary methods enabling the analysis of the behavior of large and complex logical models: (i) the definition of transition priority classes to simplify the dynamics; (ii) a model reduction method preserving essential dynamical properties, (iii) a novel algorithm to compact state transition graphs and directly generate compressed representations, emphasizing relevant transient and asymptotic dynamical properties. The power of an approach combining these different methods is demonstrated by applying them to a recent multilevel logical model for the network controlling CD4+ T helper cell response to antigen presentation and to a dozen cytokines. This model accounts for the differentiation of canonical Th1 and Th2 lymphocytes, as well as of inflammatory Th17 and regulatory T cells, along with many hybrid subtypes. All these methods have been implemented into the software GINsim, which enables the definition, the analysis, and the simulation of logical regulatory graphs.

Scientific Evidence in Europe : Admissibility, Evaluation and Equality of Arms

This study was commissioned by the European Committee on Crime Problems at the Council of Europe to describe and discuss the standards used to asses the admissibility and appraisal of scientific evidence in various member countries. After documenting cases in which faulty forensic evidence seems to have played a critical role, the authors describe the legal foundations of the issues of admissibility and assessment of the probative value in the field of scientific evidence, contrasting criminal justice systems of accusatorial and inquisitorial tradition and the various risks that they pose in terms of equality of arms. Special attention is given to communication issues between lawyers and scientific experts. The authors eventually investigate possible ways of improving the system. Among these mechanisms, emphasis is put on the adoption of a common terminology for expressing the weight of evidence. It is also proposed to adopt an harmonized interpretation framework among forensic experts rooted in good practices of logical inference.

"Periodic crises": Clément Juglar between theories of crises and theories of business cycles

Business cycle theory is normally described as having evolved out of a previous tradition of writers focusing exclusively on crises. In this account, the turning point is seen as residing in Clément Juglar's contribution on commercial crises and their periodicity. It is well known that the champion of this view is Schumpeter, who propagated it on several occasions. The same author, however, pointed to a number of other writers who, before and at the same time as Juglar, stressed one or another of the aspects for which Juglar is credited primacy, including the recognition of periodicity and the identification of endogenous elements enabling the recognition of crises as a self-generating phenomenon. There is indeed a vast literature, both primary and secondary, relating to the debates on crises and fluctuations around the middle of the nineteenth century, from which it is apparent that Juglar's book Des Crises Commerciales et de leur Retour Périodique en France, en Angleterre et aux États-Unis (originally published in 1862 and very much revised and enlarged in 1889) did not come out of the blue but was one of the products of an intellectual climate inducing the thinking of crises not as unrelated events but as part of a more complex phenomenon consisting of recurring crises related to the development of the commercial world - an interpretation corroborated by the almost regular occurrence of crises at about 10-year intervals.

Clinical and genetic findings in a large cohort of patients with congenital myopathies due to mutations in the skeletal muscle ryanodine receptor (RYR1) gene

RYR1 mutations are the most common cause of structural congenital myopathies and may exhibit both dominant and recessive inheritance. Histopathological findings are variable and include central cores, multi-minicores, type 1 predominance/ uniformity, fibre type disproportion, increased internal nucleation and fatty and connective tissue. Until recently, diagnostic RYR1 sequencing was limited to mutational hotspots due to the large size of the gene. Since the introduction of full RYR1 sequencing in 2007 we have detected pathogenic mutations in 77 families: 39 had dominant inheritance and 38 recessive inheritance. In some cases with presumably recessive inheritance, only one heterozygous mutation inherited from an asymptomatic parent was identified. Of 28 dominant mutations, 6 were novel; 37 of the 59 recessive mutations were also novel. Dominant mutations were more frequently in recognized hotspot regions, while recessive mutations were distributed throughout the coding sequence. Dominant mutations were predominantly missense, whereas recessive mutations included many nonsense and splice mutations expected to result in reduced RyR1 protein. There was wide clinical variability in patients with both dominant and recessive inheritance. As a group, those with dominant mutations were generally more mildly affected than those with recessive inheritance, who had earlier onset and were weaker with more functional limitations. Extraocular muscle involvement was almost exclusively observed in the recessive group. Bulbar involvement was also more prominent in this group, resulting in a larger number requiring gastrostomy insertion. In conclusion, genomic sequencing of the entire RYR1 leads to the detection of many novel mutations, but may miss large genetic rearrangements in some cases. Assigning pathogenicity to novel mutations is often difficult and interpretation of genetic results in the context of clinical, histological and, increasingly, muscle MRI findings is essential.

Structural characterization of Turtle Mountain anticline (Alberta, Canada) and impact on rock slope failure

his paper proposes a structural investigation of the Turtle Mountain anticline (Alberta, Canada) to better understand the role of the different tectonic features on the development of both local and large scale rock slope instabilities occurring in Turtle Mountain. The study area is investigated by combining remote methods with detailed field surveys. In particular, the benefit of Terrestrial Laser Scanning for ductile and brittle tectonic structure interpretations is illustrated. The proposed tectonic interpretation allows the characterization of the fracturing pattern, the fold geometry and the role of these tectonic features in rock slope instability development. Ten discontinuity sets are identified in the study area, their local variations permitting the differentiation of the study zone into 20 homogenous structural domains. The anticline is described as an eastern verging fold that displays considerable geometry differences along its axis and developed by both flexural slip and tangential longitudinal strain folding mechanisms. Moreover, the origins of the discontinuity sets are determined according to the tectonic phases affecting the region (pre-folding, folding, post-folding). The localization and interpretation of kinematics of the different instabilities revealed the importance of considering the discrete brittle planes of weakness, which largely control the kinematic release of the local instabilities, and also the rock mass damage induced by large tectonic structures (fold hinge, thrust).

Cloning and expression of rat pancreatic beta-cell malonyl-CoA decarboxylase.

To gain insight into the function and regulation of malonyl-CoA decarboxylase (MCD) we have cloned rat MCD cDNA from a differentiated insulin-secreting pancreatic beta-cell-line cDNA library. The full-length cDNA sequence shows 69% identity with the cDNA cloned previously from the goose uropygial gland, and predicts a 492 amino acid protein of 54.7 kDa. The open reading frame contains an N-terminal mitochondrial targeting sequence and the C-terminal part of the enzyme ends with a peroxisomal (Ser-Lys-Leu) targeting motif. Since the sequence does not reveal hydrophobic domains, MCD is most likely expressed in the mitochondrial matrix and inside the peroxisomes. A second methionine residue, located 3' of the mitochondrial presequence, might be the first amino acid of a putative cytosolic MCD, since the nucleotide sequence around it fits fairly well with a consensus Kozak site for translation initiation. However, primer extension detects the presence of only one transcript initiating upstream of the first ATG, indicating that the major, if not exclusive, transcript expressed in the pancreatic beta-cell encodes MCD with its mitochondrial presequence. The sequence also shows multiple possible sites of phosphorylation by casein kinase II and protein kinase C. mRNA tissue-distribution analysis indicates a transcript of 2.2 kb, and that the MCD gene is expressed over a wide range of rat tissues. The distribution of the enzyme shows a broad range of activities from very low in the brain to elevated in the liver and heart. The results provide the foundations for further studies of the role of MCD in lipid metabolism and metabolic signalling in various tissues.

RT-PCR diagnosis of patients with acute nonlymphocytic leukemia and inv(16)(p13q22) and identification of new alternative splicing in CBFB-MYH11 transcripts.

As acute nonlymphocytic leukemia (ANLL) with inv(16) (p13q22) or t(16;16)(p13;q22) has been shown to result from the fusion of transcription factor subunit core binding factor (CBFB) to a myosin heavy chain (MYH11), we sought to design methods to detect this rearrangement using reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR). In all of 27 inv(16)(p13q22) and four t(16;16)(p13;q22) cases tested, a chimeric CBFB-MYH11 transcript coding for an in-frame fusion protein was detected. In a more extensive RT-PCR analysis with different primer pairs, we detected a second new chimeric CBFB-MYH11 transcript in 10 of 11 patients tested. The CBFB-MYH11 reading frame of the second transcript was maintained in one patient but not in the others. We show that the different CBFB-MYH11 transcripts in one patient arise from alternative splicing. Translation of the transcript in which the CBFB-MYH11 reading frame is not maintained leads to a slightly truncated CBFB protein.

Occult lung infarction may induce false interpretation of 18F-FDG PET in primary staging of pulmonary malignancies.

PURPOSE: The aim of the present report is to describe abnormal (18)F-fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) accumulation patterns in the pleura and lung parenchyma in a group of lung cancer patients in whom lung infarction was present at the time of positron emission tomography (PET). METHODS: Between November 2002 and December 2003, a total of 145 patients (102 males, 43 females; age range 38-85 years) were subjected to whole-body FDG PET for initial staging (n=117) or restaging (n=11) of lung cancer or for evaluation of solitary pulmonary nodules (n=17). Of these patients, 24 displayed abnormal FDG accumulation in the lung parenchyma that was not consistent with the primary lesion under investigation (ipsilateral n=12, contralateral n=9 or bilateral n=3). Without correlative imaging, this additional FDG uptake would have been considered indeterminate in differential diagnosis. RESULTS: Of the 24 patients who were identified as having such lesions, six harboured secondary tumour nodules diagnosed as metastases, while in three the diagnosis of a synchronous second primary lung tumour was established. Additionally, nine patients were identified as having post-stenotic pneumonia and/or atelectasis (n=6) or granulomatous lung disease (n=3). In the remaining six (4% of all patients), a diagnosis of recent pulmonary embolism that topographically matched the additional FDG accumulation (SUV(max) range 1.4-8.6, mean 3.9) was made. Four of these six patients were known to have pulmonary embolism, and hence false positive interpretation was avoided by correlating the PET findings with those of the pre-existing diagnostic work-up. The remaining two patients were harbouring small occult infarctions that mimicked satellite nodules in the lung periphery. Based on histopathological results, the abnormal FDG accumulation in these two patients was attributed to the inflammatory reaction and tissue repair associated with the pathological cascade of pulmonary embolism. CONCLUSION: In patients with pulmonary malignancies, synchronous lung infarction may induce pathological FDG accumulation that can mimic active tumour manifestations. Identifying this potential pitfall may allow avoidance of false positive FDG PET interpretation.

Interprétation de la volémie dans l'insuffisance rénale aiguë [Interpretation of volemia in acute kidney injury].

Assessment of volume status is often challenging in daily clinical practice. One of the clinician's tasks is to prevent or to treat organ systems failures that arise from a mismatch between the transport of oxygen and metabolic needs. Renal failure is a frequently encountered in-hospital diagnosis that is known to alter significantly the prognosis. In patients with acute renal failure in particular, the consequences of an inadequate volume management further increase morbidity and mortality.

Sorting out measures and definitions of screening participation to improve comparability : the example of colorectal cancer.

Participation is a key indicator of the potential effectiveness of any population-based intervention. Defining, measuring and reporting participation in cancer screening programmes has become more heterogeneous as the number and diversity of interventions have increased, and the purposes of this benchmarking parameter have broadened. This study, centred on colorectal cancer, addresses current issues that affect the increasingly complex task of comparing screening participation across settings. Reports from programmes with a defined target population and active invitation scheme, published between 2005 and 2012, were reviewed. Differences in defining and measuring participation were identified and quantified, and participation indicators were grouped by aims of measure and temporal dimensions. We found that consistent terminology, clear and complete reporting of participation definition and systematic documentation of coverage by invitation were lacking. Further, adherence to definitions proposed in the 2010 European Guidelines for Quality Assurance in Colorectal Cancer Screening was suboptimal. Ineligible individuals represented 1% to 15% of invitations, and variable criteria for ineligibility yielded differences in participation estimates that could obscure the interpretation of colorectal cancer screening participation internationally. Excluding ineligible individuals from the reference population enhances comparability of participation measures. Standardised measures of cumulative participation to compare screening protocols with different intervals and inclusion of time since invitation in definitions are urgently needed to improve international comparability of colorectal cancer screening participation. Recommendations to improve comparability of participation indicators in cancer screening interventions are made.

Clinical and genetic findings in a large cohort of patients with ryanodine receptor 1 gene-associated myopathies.

Ryanodine receptor 1 (RYR1) mutations are a common cause of congenital myopathies associated with both dominant and recessive inheritance. Histopathological findings frequently feature central cores or multi-minicores, more rarely, type 1 predominance/uniformity, fiber-type disproportion, increased internal nucleation, and fatty and connective tissue. We describe 71 families, 35 associated with dominant RYR1 mutations and 36 with recessive inheritance. Five of the dominant mutations and 35 of the 55 recessive mutations have not been previously reported. Dominant mutations, typically missense, were frequently located in recognized mutational hotspot regions, while recessive mutations were distributed throughout the entire coding sequence. Recessive mutations included nonsense and splice mutations expected to result in reduced RyR1 protein. There was wide clinical variability. As a group, dominant mutations were associated with milder phenotypes; patients with recessive inheritance had earlier onset, more weakness, and functional limitations. Extraocular and bulbar muscle involvement was almost exclusively observed in the recessive group. In conclusion, our study reports a large number of novel RYR1 mutations and indicates that recessive variants are at least as frequent as the dominant ones. Assigning pathogenicity to novel mutations is often difficult, and interpretation of genetic results in the context of clinical, histological, and muscle magnetic resonance imaging findings is essential.

Predictive accuracy and usefulness of calibration of the ESC SCORE in Switzerland.

BACKGROUND: Prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) at the individual level should rely on the assessment of absolute risk using population-specific risk tables. OBJECTIVE: To compare the predictive accuracy of the original and the calibrated SCORE functions regarding 10-year cardiovascular risk in Switzerland. DESIGN: Cross-sectional, population-based study (5773 participants aged 35-74 years). METHODS: The SCORE equation for low-risk countries was calibrated based on the Swiss CVD mortality rates and on the CVD risk factor levels from the study sample. The predicted number of CVD deaths after a 10-year period was computed from the original and the calibrated equations and from the observed cardiovascular mortality for 2003. RESULTS: According to the original and calibrated functions, 16.3 and 15.8% of men and 8.2 and 8.9% of women, respectively, had a 10-year CVD risk > or =5%. Concordance correlation coefficient between the two functions was 0.951 for men and 0.948 for women, both P<0.001. Both risk functions adequately predicted the 10-year cumulative number of CVD deaths: in men, 71 (original) and 74 (calibrated) deaths for 73 deaths when using the CVD mortality rates; in women, 44 (original), 45 (calibrated) and 45 (CVD mortality rates), respectively. Compared to the original function, the calibrated function classified more women and fewer men at high-risk. Moreover, the calibrated function gave better risk estimates among participants aged over 65 years. CONCLUSION: The original SCORE function adequately predicts CVD death in Switzerland, particularly for individuals aged less than 65 years. The calibrated function provides more reliable estimates for older individuals.