Overcoming the rare species modelling paradox: test of a novel hierarchical framework with an Iberian endemic plant

Rare species have restricted geographic ranges, habitat specialization, and/or small population sizes. Datasets on rare species distribution usually have few observations, limited spatial accuracy and lack of valid absences; conversely they provide comprehensive views of species distributions allowing to realistically capture most of their realized environmental niche. Rare species are the most in need of predictive distribution modelling but also the most difficult to model. We refer to this contrast as the "rare species modelling paradox" and propose as a solution developing modelling approaches that deal with a sufficiently large set of predictors, ensuring that statistical models aren't overfitted. Our novel approach fulfils this condition by fitting a large number of bivariate models and averaging them with a weighted ensemble approach. We further propose that this ensemble forecasting is conducted within a hierarchic multi-scale framework. We present two ensemble models for a test species, one at regional and one at local scale, each based on the combination of 630 models. In both cases, we obtained excellent spatial projections, unusual when modelling rare species. Model results highlight, from a statistically sound approach, the effects of multiple drivers in a same modelling framework and at two distinct scales. From this added information, regional models can support accurate forecasts of range dynamics under climate change scenarios, whereas local models allow the assessment of isolated or synergistic impacts of changes in multiple predictors. This novel framework provides a baseline for adaptive conservation, management and monitoring of rare species at distinct spatial and temporal scales.

Species distributions and interactions in a changing world : from understanding to forecasting

Les écosystèmes fournissent de nombreuses ressources et services écologiques qui sont utiles à la population humaine. La biodiversité est une composante essentielle des écosystèmes et maintient de nombreux services. Afin d'assurer la permanence des services écosystémiques, des mesures doivent être prises pour conserver la biodiversité. Dans ce but, l'acquisition d'informations détaillées sur la distribution de la biodiversité dans l'espace est essentielle. Les modèles de distribution d'espèces (SDMs) sont des modèles empiriques qui mettent en lien des observations de terrain (présences ou absences d'une espèce) avec des descripteurs de l'environnement, selon des courbes de réponses statistiques qui décrive la niche réalisée des espèces. Ces modèles fournissent des projections spatiales indiquant les lieux les plus favorables pour les espèces considérées. Le principal objectif de cette thèse est de fournir des projections plus réalistes de la distribution des espèces et des communautés en montagne pour le climat présent et futur en considérant non-seulement des variables abiotiques mais aussi biotiques. Les régions de montagne et l'écosystème alpin sont très sensibles aux changements globaux et en même temps assurent de nombreux services écosystémiques. Cette thèse est séparée en trois parties : (i) fournir une meilleure compréhension du rôle des interactions biotiques dans la distribution des espèces et l'assemblage des communautés en montagne (ouest des Alpes Suisses), (ii) permettre le développement d'une nouvelle approche pour modéliser la distribution spatiale de la biodiversité, (iii) fournir des projections plus réalistes de la distribution future des espèces ainsi que de la composition des communautés. En me focalisant sur les papillons, bourdons et plantes vasculaires, j'ai détecté des interactions biotiques importantes qui lient les espèces entre elles. J'ai également identifié la signature du filtre de l'environnement sur les communautés en haute altitude confirmant l'utilité des SDMs pour reproduire ce type de processus. A partir de ces études, j'ai contribué à l'amélioration méthodologique des SDMs dans le but de prédire les communautés en incluant les interactions biotiques et également les processus non-déterministes par une approche probabiliste. Cette approche permet de prédire non-seulement la distribution d'espèces individuelles, mais également celle de communautés dans leur entier en empilant les projections (S-SDMs). Finalement, j'ai utilisé cet outil pour prédire la distribution d'espèces et de communautés dans le passé et le futur. En particulier, j'ai modélisé la migration post-glaciaire de Trollius europaeus qui est à l'origine de la structure génétique intra-spécifique chez cette espèce et évalué les risques de perte face au changement climatique. Finalement, j'ai simulé la distribution des communautés de bourdons pour le 21e siècle afin d'évaluer les changements probables dans ce groupe important de pollinisateurs. La diversité fonctionnelle des bourdons va être altérée par la perte d'espèces spécialistes de haute altitude et ceci va influencer la pollinisation des plantes en haute altitude. - Ecosystems provide a multitude of resources and ecological services, which are useful to human. Biodiversity is an essential component of those ecosystems and guarantee many services. To assure the permanence of ecosystem services for future generation, measure should be applied to conserve biodiversity. For this purpose, the acquisition of detailed information on how biodiversity implicated in ecosystem function is distributed in space is essential. Species distribution models (SDMs) are empirical models relating field observations to environmental predictors based on statistically-derived response surfaces that fit the realized niche. These models result in spatial predictions indicating locations of the most suitable environment for the species and may potentially be applied to predict composition of communities and their functional properties. The main objective of this thesis was to provide more accurate projections of species and communities distribution under current and future climate in mountains by considering not solely abiotic but also biotic drivers of species distribution. Mountain areas and alpine ecosystems are considered as particularly sensitive to global changes and are also sources of essential ecosystem services. This thesis had three main goals: (i) a better ecological understanding of biotic interactions and how they shape the distribution of species and communities, (ii) the development of a novel approach to the spatial modeling of biodiversity, that can account for biotic interactions, and (iii) ecologically more realistic projections of future species distributions, of future composition and structure of communities. Focusing on butterfly and bumblebees in interaction with the vegetation, I detected important biotic interactions for species distribution and community composition of both plant and insects along environmental gradients. I identified the signature of environmental filtering processes at high elevation confirming the suitability of SDMs for reproducing patterns of filtering. Using those case-studies, I improved SDMs by incorporating biotic interaction and accounting for non-deterministic processes and uncertainty using a probabilistic based approach. I used improved modeling to forecast the distribution of species through the past and future climate changes. SDMs hindcasting allowed a better understanding of the spatial range dynamic of Trollius europaeus in Europe at the origin of the species intra-specific genetic diversity and identified the risk of loss of this genetic diversity caused by climate change. By simulating the future distribution of all bumblebee species in the western Swiss Alps under nine climate change scenarios for the 21st century, I found that the functional diversity of this pollinator guild will be largely affected by climate change through the loss of high elevation specialists. In turn, this will have important consequences on alpine plant pollination.

Climate change, anthropogenic disturbance and the northward range expansion of Lactuca serriola (Asteraceae)

The distribution range of Lactuca serriola, a species native to the summer-dry mediterranean climate, has expanded northwards during the last 250 years. This paper assesses the influence of climate on the range expansion of this species and highlights the importance of anthropogenic disturbance to its spread. Location Central and Northern Europe. Methods Data on the geographic distribution of L. serriola were assembled through a literature search as well as through floristic and herbarium surveys. Maps of the spread of L. serriola in Central and Northern Europe were prepared based on herbarium data. The spread was assessed more precisely in Germany, Austria and Great Britain by pooling herbarium and literature data. We modelled the bioclimatic niche of the species using occurrence and climatic data covering the last century to generate projections of suitable habitats under the climatic conditions of five time periods. We tested whether the observed distribution of L. serriola could be explained for each time period, assuming that the climatic niche of the species was conserved across time. Results The species has spread northwards since the beginning of the 19th century. We show that climate warming in Europe increased the number of sites suitable for the species at northern latitudes. Until the late 1970s, the distribution of the species corresponded to the climatically suitable sites available. For the last two decades, however, we could not show any significant relationship between the increase in suitable sites and the distributional range change of L. serriola. However, we highlight potential areas the species could spread to in the future (Great Britain, southern Scandinavia and the Swedish coast). It is predominantly non-climatic influences of global change that have contributed to its rapid spread. Main conclusions The observation that colonizing species are not filling their climatically suitable range might imply that, potentially, other ruderal species could expand far beyond their current range. Our work highlights the importance of historical floristic and herbarium data for understanding the expansion of a species. Such historical distributional data can provide valuable information for those planning the management of contemporary environmental problems, such as species responses to environmental change.

Distinct neuronal circuits underlying the bahavioral and physiological components of the fear response

Abstract : Expression of fear involves changes in a number of behavioral and physiological parameters that are triggered by the central amygdala (CeA). The fear circuit also includes a series of brain stem nuclei that are the final effectors of the changes induced by the fear reaction. The CeA expresses many different neuropeptide receptors that can modulate fear responses. Today, the precise organization and the modulation of projections from the amygdala to the brain stem are still poorly understood. The aim of this project was to better understand the organization and the modulation of the fear circuit. To investigate this we first determined whether the CeA is composed of separate neuronal populations, where each one projects to specific brain stem nuclei, or whether single CeA neurons project to several nuclei. For this purpose, we first selected two brain stem nuclei implicated in the modulation of different components of the fear reactions, the periaqueductal gray (implicated in freezing) and the nucleus of solitary tract (implicated in heart rate modulation). We then performed double injections of two different retrograde tracers in these two nuclei and we quantified the subsequent presence of co-labelling in the CeA. We found that neurons projecting to the PAG and to the NTS are organized in separate populations. Subsequent electrophysiological recordings of the two populations revealed that PAG and NTS projecting neurons also have different electrophysiological characteristics. We then verified in vitro whether the neurons projecting to different brain stem nuclei express specific combinations of neuropeptide receptors, and whether a neuropeptide acting pre-synaptically (oxytocin) specifically modulates one of these two projections. We did not find differences at the level of expression of neurópeptide receptors, but we observed that oxytocin, a neuropeptide with anxiolytic properties, modulates PAG projecting neurons without affecting NTS projecting neurons. As oxytocin appeared to specifically modulate projections to the PAG, involved in the modulation of the freezing reaction, but did not affect the projections to the NTS, implicated in the modulation of cardiovascular parameters, we verified how this modulation translates in living animals. We investigated the effects of infra-amygdala injection of oxytocin on cardiovascular and behavioral changes induced by contextual fear conditioning. We found that oxytocin decreased the freezing response without affecting the cardiovascular system. Finally, as neuropeptides are considered potential future anxiolytics, we investigated whether diazepam and oxytocin, acting on the same circuit, had additive effects. This question was addressed exclusively with an in vitro electrophysiological approach. We obtained that oxytocin and diazepam, when co-applied, had an additive effect on both synaptic transmission and neuronal activity. These results open new perspectives for the possible clinical applications of oxytocin. Résumé : L'expression de la peur est accompagnée par de nombreux changements physiologiques et comportementaux qui sont déclenchés par l'amygdale centrale (CeA). Le circuit inclue aussi une série de noyaux du tronc cérébrale qui sont les effecteurs des différentes composantes de la réaction de peur. On sait que CeA envoie des projections aux noyaux du tronc cérébral et que ces neurones expriment une grande variété de récepteurs aux neuropeptides. Par contre, l'organisation des projections, ainsi que la modulation de ces projections par les neuropeptides reste encore peu connue. Avec ce projet, on premièrement voulu déterminer si CeA est composée de populations neuronales séparées qui projettent vers un noyau spécifique, ou bien si chaque neurones envoie des projections vers plusieurs noyaux. A ce propos, on a effectué des doubles injections de deux traceurs rétrogrades différentes dans deux noyaux du tronc cérébral impliqués dans des différentes composantes des réactions de peur. On a injecté la substance grise périaqueducale (PAG), qui est impliquée dans la réponse d'immobilisation, ainsi que le noyau du tractus solitaire (NTS) qui est responsable des changements cardiovasculaires. On a ensuite quantifié la présence de neurones contenant les deux traceurs dans CeA. On a trouvé que la plupart des neurones de l'amygdale centrale projettent vers un noyau spécifique, et on peut donc dire que l'amygdale semble être composée de populations neuronales séparées. On a ensuite mesuré les caractéristiques électrophysiologiques de ces deux projections et on a trouvé des différences substantielles concernant la résistance membranaire, la capacitance, le potentiel membranaire de repos ainsi que la fréquence des potentiels d'action spontanés. Puis, comme beaucoup de neuropéptides dans l'amygdale exercent un effet modulatoire sûr les réactions de peur et sur l'anxiété, on a étudié les effets directs et indirects d'une série de neuropeptides sur les différentes projections pour évaluer s'il y a des neuropeptides qui agissent spécifiquement sur une. On n'a pas trouvé de différences entre neurones qui projettent vers le PAG et neurones qui projettent vers le NTS concernant les effets de neuropeptides qui agissent directement sur ces cellules. Par contre, on a trouvé que l'ocytocine, un neuropeptide qui se lie à des récepteurs dans la partie latérale de l'amygdale centrale et inhibe de façon indirecte les neurones de l'amygdala centrale médiale, module les projections vers le PAG sans affecter celles qui vont vers le NTS. Comme le PAG est impliqué dans la réponse d'immobilisation, alors que le NTS est impliqué dans la modulation cardiovasculaire, on a ensuite étudié les effets de l'ocytocine injectée dans l'amygdale de rat vivants sur les réactions de peur conditionnées. On a trouvé que l'ocytocine diminue la réponse d'immobilisation sans par contre affecter la réponse cardiovasculaire. Pour terminer, on a vérifié si l'ocytocine potentialise les effets d'un médicament anxiolytique, le diazeparn. Avec une étude in vitro on a trouvé qu'une co-application d'ocytocine et diazeparn résulte en un effet additionnel à la fois sur la transmission synaptique ainsi que sur l'activité neuronale des neurones de l'amygdale centrale médiale. Ces résultats ouvrent des nouvelles perspectives pour une potentielle utilisation clinique de l'ocytocine.

Medium-sized neurofilament protein related to maturation of a subset of cortical neurons.

Neurofilaments are typical structures of the neuronal cytoskeleton and participate in the formation and stabilization of the axonal and dendritic architecture. In this study, we have characterized a murine monoclonal antibody, FNP7, that is directed against the medium-sized neurofilament subunit NF-M. This antibody identifies a subset of neurons in the cerebral cortex of various species including human and in organotypic cultures of rat cortex. In the neocortex of all species examined, the antibody labels pyramidal cells in layers III, V, and VI, with a distinctive laminar distribution between architectonic boundaries. In comparison with other antibodies directed against NF-M, the FNP7 antibody identifies on blots two forms of NF-M that appear relatively late during development, at the time when dynamic growth of processes changes to the stabilization of the formed processes. Dephosphorylation with alkaline phosphatase unmasks the site, making it detectable for the FNP7 antibody. The late appearance suggests that the site is present during early development in phosphorylated form and with increasing maturation becomes dephosphorylated, mainly in dendrites. This event may relate to changes in cytoskeleton stability in a late phase of dendritic maturation. Furthermore, mainly corticofugal projections and only few callosal axons are stained, suggesting a differential phosphorylation in a subset of axons. The antibody provides a useful marker to study subsets of pyramidal cells in vivo, in vitro, and under experimental conditions.

Predicting current and future biological invasions: both native and invaded ranges matter.

The classical approach to predicting the geographical extent of species invasions consists of training models in the native range and projecting them in distinct, potentially invasible areas. However, recent studies have demonstrated that this approach could be hampered by a change of the realized climatic niche, allowing invasive species to spread into habitats in the invaded ranges that are climatically distinct from those occupied in the native range. We propose an alternative approach that involves fitting models with pooled data from all ranges. We show that this pooled approach improves prediction of the extent of invasion of spotted knapweed (Centaurea maculosa) in North America on models based solely on the European native range. Furthermore, it performs equally well on models based on the invaded range, while ensuring the inclusion of areas with similar climate to the European niche, where the species is likely to spread further. We then compare projections from these models for 2080 under a severe climate warming scenario. Projections from the pooled models show fewer areas of intermediate climatic suitability than projections from the native or invaded range models, suggesting a better consensus among modelling techniques and reduced uncertainty.

Predicting global change impacts on plant species' distributions: Future challenges

Given the rate of projected environmental change for the 21st century, urgent adaptation and mitigation measures are required to slow down the on-going erosion of biodiversity. Even though increasing evidence shows that recent human-induced environmental changes have already triggered species' range shifts, changes in phenology and species' extinctions, accurate projections of species' responses to future environmental changes are more difficult to ascertain. This is problematic, since there is a growing awareness of the need to adopt proactive conservation planning measures using forecasts of species' responses to future environmental changes. There is a substantial body of literature describing and assessing the impacts of various scenarios of climate and land-use change on species' distributions. Model predictions include a wide range of assumptions and limitations that are widely acknowledged but compromise their use for developing reliable adaptation and mitigation strategies for biodiversity. Indeed, amongst the most used models, few, if any, explicitly deal with migration processes, the dynamics of population at the "trailing edge" of shifting populations, species' interactions and the interaction between the effects of climate and land-use. In this review, we propose two main avenues to progress the understanding and prediction of the different processes A occurring on the leading and trailing edge of the species' distribution in response to any global change phenomena. Deliberately focusing on plant species, we first explore the different ways to incorporate species' migration in the existing modelling approaches, given data and knowledge limitations and the dual effects of climate and land-use factors. Secondly, we explore the mechanisms and processes happening at the trailing edge of a shifting species' distribution and how to implement them into a modelling approach. We finally conclude this review with clear guidelines on how such modelling improvements will benefit conservation strategies in a changing world. (c) 2007 Rubel Foundation, ETH Zurich. Published by Elsevier GrnbH. All rights reserved.

Cyclic AMP induces differentiation in vitro of human melanoma cells.

Treating human melanoma lines with dibutyryl adenosine 3':5'-cyclic monophosphate (dbc AMP) resulted in morphologic changes associated with the altered expression of cell surface antigens. After treatment, cells developed long cellular projections characteristic of mature melanocytes and showed the presence of an increased number of Stage II premelanosomes. In addition, induction of melanin synthesis, detected as brown perinuclear pigmentation, was observed. The AMP further drastically reduced the growth rate of the five melanoma cell lines that were tested. The influence of dbc AMP was completely reversible 3 days after the agent was removed from the culture medium. The antigenic phenotype of the melanoma lines was compared before and after dbc AMP treatment. This was done with four monoclonal antibodies directed against major histocompatibility complex (MHC) Class I and II antigens and 11 monoclonal antibodies defining eight different melanoma-associated antigenic systems. Treatment with dbc AMP reduced the expression of human leukocyte antigen (HLA)-ABC antigens and beta-2-microglobulin in five of five melanoma lines. In the two HLA-DR-positive cell lines dbc AMP reduced the expression of this antigen in one line and enhanced it in the other. No induction of HLA-DR or HLA-DC antigens was observed in the Class II negative cell lines. Furthermore, dbc-AMP modulated the expression of the majority of the melanoma antigenic systems tested. The expression of a 90-kilodalton (KD) antigen, which has been found to be upregulated by interferon-gamma, was markedly decreased in all the five cell lines. A similar decrease in the expression of the high molecular weight proteoglycan-associated antigen (220-240 KD) was observed. The reduced expression of Class I and II MHC antigens as well as the altered expression of the melanoma-associated antigens studied were shown to be reversible after dbc AMP was removed. Our results collectively show that the monoclonal antibody-defined melanoma-associated molecules are linked to differentiation. They could provide useful tools for monitoring the maturation of melanomas in vivo induced by chemical agents or natural components favoring differentiation.

Oxytocin selectively gates fear responses through distinct outputs from the central amygdala.

Central amygdala (CeA) projections to hypothalamic and brain stem nuclei regulate the behavioral and physiological expression of fear, but it is unknown whether these different aspects of the fear response can be separately regulated by the CeA. We combined fluorescent retrograde tracing of CeA projections to nuclei that modulate fear-related freezing or cardiovascular responses with in vitro electrophysiological recordings and with in vivo monitoring of related behavioral and physiological parameters. CeA projections emerged from separate neuronal populations with different electrophysiological characteristics and different response properties to oxytocin. In vivo, oxytocin decreased freezing responses in fear-conditioned rats without affecting the cardiovascular response. Thus, neuropeptidergic signaling can modulate the CeA outputs through separate neuronal circuits and thereby individually steer the various aspects of the fear response.

Effects of pro-cholinergic treatment in patients suffering from spatial neglect.

Spatial neglect is a neurological condition characterized by a breakdown of spatial cognition contralateral to hemispheric damage. Deficits in spatial attention toward the contralesional side are considered to be central to this syndrome. Brain lesions typically involve right fronto-parietal cortices mediating attentional functions and subcortical connections in underlying white matter. Convergent findings from neuroimaging and behavioral studies in both animals and humans suggest that the cholinergic system might also be critically implicated in selective attention by modulating cortical function via widespread projections from the basal forebrain. Here we asked whether deficits in spatial attention associated with neglect could partly result from a cholinergic deafferentation of cortical areas subserving attentional functions, and whether such disturbances could be alleviated by pro-cholinergic therapy. We examined the effect of a single-dose transdermal nicotine treatment on spatial neglect in 10 stroke patients in a double-blind placebo-controlled protocol, using a standardized battery of neglect tests. Nicotine-induced systematic improvement on cancellation tasks and facilitated orienting to single visual targets, but had no significant effect on other tests. These results support a global effect of nicotine on attention and arousal, but no effect on other spatial mechanisms impaired in neglect.

Life expectancy with and without disability

Average life expectancy reached 78.8 years in Europe in 2002 (WHO 2003); most Europeans can, therefore, now anticipate living well past 75 years of age. Projections in industrialized nations suggest a continuing mortality decline in the next decades 1 while birth rates will probably continue to decline, resulting in further ageing of these nations. As those aged 80 years and over are the fastest expanding segment of the older population, concerns are growing about a potential dramatic increase in the number of disabled persons. The ageing of the population and the related increase in chronic disease burden have already had major impacts on most Western health-care systems, and will probably further affect these systems in the future as the baby-boom generation becomes older. For instance, in Switzerland, it is estimated that costs due to long-term care could more than double by 2030, from 6.5 to 15.3 billion SFr.2 Similar trends are expected in most European countries. As a consequence, postponement of the onset of disability, with a compression of functional dependency into a shorter period towards the end of life, is becoming a major goal. To successfully achieve this goal and improve the control of growing health and social care expenditures, various strategies of health promotion and disease prevention are developed and tested. Although several of these experiences had some effects on functional decline and institutional placement, they have not been shown to be cost-effective. Additional strategies are, therefore, needed to prevent or delay the onset of disability in older persons, reduce functional impairment, and face the challenge of an increasing disabled elderly population.

Différences régionales de l'incidence des fractures de la hanche dues à l'ostéoporose chez les femmes âgées : influence de la condition physique et de la nutrition

Résumé L'ostéoporose est une maladie systémique du squelette caractérisée par une fragilité osseuse augmentée avec pour conséquence une augmentation de la susceptibilité aux fractures. C'est actuellement un important problème de santé publique avec des conséquences majeures pour les systèmes de soins tant d'un point de vue médical que financier. Les projections mondiales prévoient une augmentation significative du nombre de fractures de la hanche d'ici 2050. Cette étude vise à analyser l'influence des apports nutritionnels par rapport à celle de la condition physique sur le risque de fracture ostéoporotique en reprenant les données évaluant la consommation de produits laitiers au sein du collectif de l'étude SEMOF («Evaluation suisse de méthodes de mesure du risque de fracture ostéoporotique»). Nous avons d'abord montré que les apports moyens en calcium des 7788 femmes âgées de 70 ans et plus ayant participé à l'étude sont inférieurs aux recommandations suisses et internationales. Des trois régions étudiées, la Suisse romande est celle où les apports quotidiens moyens en calcium et en protéines provenant des produits laitiers sont les plus faibles et où l'incidence des fractures de la hanche secondaires à l'ostéoporose est la plus élevée. Les apports en calcium et en protéines sont également plus élevés à la campagne par rapport à la ville alors que l'incidence des fractures de la hanche n'est pas significativement différente entre ville et campagne. De plus, nous avons montré que les apports quotidiens moyens en calcium et en protéines provenant des produits laitiers ne diffèrent pas significativement entre les femmes avec ou sans fracture de la hanche pendant le suivi. En revanche, la condition physique des femmes qui ont présenté une fracture de la hanche est significativement moins bonne. Sur la base de données anamnestiques concernant les facteurs de risque de chute et la mobilité, nous avons développé un score permettant d'identifier les femmes les plus à risque de chute. La condition physique de ces femmes, attestée par le test de la chaise et la mesure de la force de préhension est la moins bonne. Toutefois, leurs apports quotidiens moyens en calcium et en protéines provenant des produits laitiers ne diffèrent pas significativement par rapport aux femmes à faible risque de chute. En conclusion, le risque de fracture de la hanche liée à l'ostéoporose est plus élevé chez les femmes de plus de 70 ans vivant en Suisse romande que dans les deux autres régions linguistiques. Il est déterminé avant tout par le risque de chute et par la condition physique. Les apports en calcium et en protéines provenant des produits laitiers, tels que nous les avons évalués ne semblent pas déterminants.

Predicting species distribution: offering more than simple habitat models

n the last two decades, interest in species distribution models (SDMs) of plants and animals has grown dramatically. Recent advances in SDMs allow us to potentially forecast anthropogenic effects on patterns of biodiversity at different spatial scales. However, some limitations still preclude the use of SDMs in many theoretical and practical applications. Here, we provide an overview of recent advances in this field, discuss the ecological principles and assumptions underpinning SDMs, and highlight critical limitations and decisions inherent in the construction and evaluation of SDMs. Particular emphasis is given to the use of SDMs for the assessment of climate change impacts and conservation management issues. We suggest new avenues for incorporating species migration, population dynamics, biotic interactions and community ecology into SDMs at multiple spatial scales. Addressing all these issues requires a better integration of SDMs with ecological theory.

Unfolding nature "in silico" : overcoming practical and metodological limitations of species distribution models

Abstract : The existence of a causal relationship between the spatial distribution of living organisms and their environment, in particular climate, has been long recognized and is the central principle of biogeography. In turn, this recognition has led scientists to the idea of using the climatic, topographic, edaphic and biotic characteristics of the environment to predict its potential suitability for a given species or biological community. In this thesis, my objective is to contribute to the development of methodological improvements in the field of species distribution modeling. More precisely, the objectives are to propose solutions to overcome limitations of species distribution models when applied to conservation biology issues, or when .used as an assessment tool of the potential impacts of global change. The first objective of my thesis is to contribute to evidence the potential of species distribution models for conservation-related applications. I present a methodology to generate pseudo-absences in order to overcome the frequent lack of reliable absence data. I also demonstrate, both theoretically (simulation-based) and practically (field-based), how species distribution models can be successfully used to model and sample rare species. Overall, the results of this first part of the thesis demonstrate the strong potential of species distribution models as a tool for practical applications in conservation biology. The second objective this thesis is to contribute to improve .projections of potential climate change impacts on species distributions, and in particular for mountain flora. I develop and a dynamic model, MIGCLIM, that allows the implementation of dispersal limitations into classic species distribution models and present an application of this model to two virtual species. Given that accounting for dispersal limitations requires information on seed dispersal, distances, a general methodology to classify species into broad dispersal types is also developed. Finally, the M~GCLIM model is applied to a large number of species in a study area of the western Swiss Alps. Overall, the results indicate that while dispersal limitations can have an important impact on the outcome of future projections of species distributions under climate change scenarios, estimating species threat levels (e.g. species extinction rates) for a mountainous areas of limited size (i.e. regional scale) can also be successfully achieved when considering dispersal as unlimited (i.e. ignoring dispersal limitations, which is easier from a practical point of view). Finally, I present the largest fine scale assessment of potential climate change impacts on mountain vegetation that has been carried-out to date. This assessment involves vegetation from 12 study areas distributed across all major western and central European mountain ranges. The results highlight that some mountain ranges (the Pyrenees and the Austrian Alps) are expected to be more affected by climate change than others (Norway and the Scottish Highlands). The results I obtain in this study also indicate that the threat levels projected by fine scale models are less severe than those derived from coarse scale models. This result suggests that some species could persist in small refugias that are not detected by coarse scale models. Résumé : L'existence d'une relation causale entre la répartition des espèces animales et végétales et leur environnement, en particulier le climat, a été mis en évidence depuis longtemps et est un des principes centraux en biogéographie. Ce lien a naturellement conduit à l'idée d'utiliser les caractéristiques climatiques, topographiques, édaphiques et biotiques de l'environnement afin d'en prédire la qualité pour une espèce ou une communauté. Dans ce travail de thèse, mon objectif est de contribuer au développement d'améliorations méthodologiques dans le domaine de la modélisation de la distribution d'espèces dans le paysage. Plus précisément, les objectifs sont de proposer des solutions afin de surmonter certaines limitations des modèles de distribution d'espèces dans des applications pratiques de biologie de la conservation ou dans leur utilisation pour évaluer l'impact potentiel des changements climatiques sur l'environnement. Le premier objectif majeur de mon travail est de contribuer à démontrer le potentiel des modèles de distribution d'espèces pour des applications pratiques en biologie de la conservation. Je propose une méthode pour générer des pseudo-absences qui permet de surmonter le problème récurent du manque de données d'absences fiables. Je démontre aussi, de manière théorique (par simulation) et pratique (par échantillonnage de terrain), comment les modèles de distribution d'espèces peuvent être utilisés pour modéliser et améliorer l'échantillonnage des espèces rares. Ces résultats démontrent le potentiel des modèles de distribution d'espèces comme outils pour des applications de biologie de la conservation. Le deuxième objectif majeur de ce travail est de contribuer à améliorer les projections d'impacts potentiels des changements climatiques sur la flore, en particulier dans les zones de montagnes. Je développe un modèle dynamique de distribution appelé MigClim qui permet de tenir compte des limitations de dispersion dans les projections futures de distribution potentielle d'espèces, et teste son application sur deux espèces virtuelles. Vu que le fait de prendre en compte les limitations dues à la dispersion demande des données supplémentaires importantes (p.ex. la distance de dispersion des graines), ce travail propose aussi une méthode de classification simplifiée des espèces végétales dans de grands "types de disperseurs", ce qui permet ainsi de d'obtenir de bonnes approximations de distances de dispersions pour un grand nombre d'espèces. Finalement, j'applique aussi le modèle MIGCLIM à un grand nombre d'espèces de plantes dans une zone d'études des pré-Alpes vaudoises. Les résultats montrent que les limitations de dispersion peuvent avoir un impact considérable sur la distribution potentielle d'espèces prédites sous des scénarios de changements climatiques. Cependant, quand les modèles sont utilisés pour évaluer les taux d'extinction d'espèces dans des zones de montages de taille limitée (évaluation régionale), il est aussi possible d'obtenir de bonnes approximations en considérant la dispersion des espèces comme illimitée, ce qui est nettement plus simple d'un point dé vue pratique. Pour terminer je présente la plus grande évaluation à fine échelle d'impact potentiel des changements climatiques sur la flore des montagnes conduite à ce jour. Cette évaluation englobe 12 zones d'études réparties sur toutes les chaines de montages principales d'Europe occidentale et centrale. Les résultats montrent que certaines chaines de montagnes (les Pyrénées et les Alpes Autrichiennes) sont projetées comme plus sensibles aux changements climatiques que d'autres (les Alpes Scandinaves et les Highlands d'Ecosse). Les résultats obtenus montrent aussi que les modèles à échelle fine projettent des impacts de changement climatiques (p. ex. taux d'extinction d'espèces) moins sévères que les modèles à échelle large. Cela laisse supposer que les modèles a échelle fine sont capables de modéliser des micro-niches climatiques non-détectées par les modèles à échelle large.