285 resultados para Predict Survival


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The ancient Greek medical theory based on balance or imbalance of humors disappeared in the western world, but does survive elsewhere. Is this survival related to a certain degree of health care efficiency? We explored this hypothesis through a study of classical Greco-Arab medicine in Mauritania. Modern general practitioners evaluated the safety and effectiveness of classical Arabic medicine in a Mauritanian traditional clinic, with a prognosis/follow-up method allowing the following comparisons: (i) actual patient progress (clinical outcome) compared with what the traditional 'tabib' had anticipated (= prognostic ability) and (ii) patient progress compared with what could be hoped for if the patient were treated by a modern physician in the same neighborhood. The practice appeared fairly safe and, on average, clinical outcome was similar to what could be expected with modern medicine. In some cases, patient progress was better than expected. The ability to correctly predict an individual's clinical outcome did not seem to be better along modern or Greco-Arab theories. Weekly joint meetings (modern and traditional practitioners) were spontaneously organized with a modern health centre in the neighborhood. Practitioners of a different medical system can predict patient progress. For the patient, avoiding false expectations with health care and ensuring appropriate referral may be the most important. Prognosis and outcome studies such as the one presented here may help to develop institutions where patients find support in making their choices, not only among several treatment options, but also among several medical systems.

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Objective: To establish if hyperglycaemia and cardiac Troponin I (cTnI) after congenital heart surgery on cardiopulmonary bypass in children could predict outcome in intensive care unit. Methods: retrospective cohort study including 274 children (mean age 4.6 years; range 0 - 17 years-old). CTnI and glucose values were retrieved from our database. Integrated values (area under the curve (AUC)) were calculated for evaluation of sustained hyperglycaemia and then normalised per hour (48h-Gluc/h). Maximal cTnI, fi rst glucose value (Gluc1) and 48h-Gluc/h were then correlated with duration of mechanical ventilation, ICU stay and mortality using cut-off values. Results: The mean duration of mechanical ventilation was 5.1 ± 7.2 days and ICU stay was 11.0 ± 13.3 days, 11 patients (3.9%) died. Hyperglycaemia (>6.1 mmol/l) was present in 68% of children at admission and was sustained in 85% for 48 hours. The mean value of Gluc1 (7.3 ± 2.7 vs. 11.8 ± 6.4 mmol/l, p < 0.0001), 48h-Gluc/h (7.4 ± 1.4 vs. 9.9 ± 4.6 mmol/l/h, p < 0.0001) and cTnI max (16.7 ± 21.8 vs. 59.2 ± 41.4 mcg/l, p < 0.0001) were signifi cantly lower in survivors vs. non survivors. Cut-off values and odds ratio are summarised in Table 1. Analyses for duration of mechanical ventilation and for length of stay in ICU are depicted in Table 2. Conclusions: Hyperglycaemia is frequent after cardiopulmonary bypass and sustained in the fi rst 48 hours. Admission glycaemia and cTnI max are associated with a high risk of mortality, prolonged duration of mechanical ventilation and prolonged length of stay in ICU.

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Objectives: To investigate the associations between falls before¦hospital admission, falls during hospitalization, and length of stay in¦elderly people admitted to post-acute geriatric rehabilitation.¦Method: History of falling in the previous 12 months before admission¦was recorded among 249 older persons (mean age 82.3 ± 7.4 years,¦69.1% women) consecutively admitted to post-acute rehabilitation. Data¦on medical, functional and cognitive status were collected upon¦admission. Falls during hospitalization and length of stay were recorded¦at discharge.¦Results: Overall, 92 (40.4%) patients reported no fall in the 12 months¦before admission; 63(27.6%) reported 1 fall, and 73 (32.0%) reported¦multiple falls. Previous falls occurrence (one or more falls) was¦significantly associated with in-stay falls (19.9% of previous fallers fell¦during the stay vs 7.6% in patients without history of falling, P = .01),¦and with a longer length of stay (22.4 ± 10.1 days vs 27.1 ± 14.3 days,¦P = .01). In multivariate robust regression controlling for gender, age,¦functional and cognitive status, history of falling remained significantly¦associated with longer rehabilitation stay (2.8 days more than non¦fallers in single fallers, p = .05, and 3.3 days in multiple fallers, p = .0.1).¦Conclusion: History of falling in the 12 months prior to post acute¦geriatric rehabilitation is independently associated with a longer¦rehabilitation length of stay. Previous fallers also have an increased risk¦of falling during rehabilitation stay. This suggests that hospital fall¦prevention measures should particularly target these high risk patients.

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PURPOSE: Temozolomide is a novel oral alkylating agent with demonstrated efficacy as second-line therapy for patients with recurrent anaplastic astrocytoma and glioblastoma multiforme (GBM). This phase II study was performed to determine the safety, tolerability, and efficacy of concomitant radiation plus temozolomide therapy followed by adjuvant temozolomide therapy in patients with newly diagnosed GBM. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Sixty-four patients were enrolled onto this open-label, phase II trial. Temozolomide (75 mg/m(2)/d x 7 d/wk for 6 weeks) was administered orally concomitant with fractionated radiotherapy (60 Gy total dose: 2 Gy x 5 d/wk for 6 weeks) followed by temozolomide monotherapy (200 mg/m(2)/d x 5 days, every 28 days for six cycles). The primary end points were safety and tolerability, and the secondary end point was overall survival. RESULTS: Concomitant radiation plus temozolomide therapy was safe and well tolerated. Nonhematologic toxicities were rare and mild to moderate in severity. During the concomitant treatment phase, grade 3 or 4 neutropenia, thrombocytopenia, or both were observed in 6% of patients, including two severe infections with Pneumocystis carinii. During adjuvant temozolomide, 2% and 6% of cycles were associated with grade 3 and 4 neutropenia or thrombocytopenia, respectively. Median survival was 16 months, and the 1- and 2-year survival rates were 58% and 31%, respectively. Patients younger than 50 years old and patients who underwent debulking surgery had the best survival outcome. CONCLUSION: Continuous daily temozolomide and concomitant radiation is safe. This regimen of concomitant chemoradiotherapy followed by adjuvant chemotherapy may prolong the survival of patients with glioblastoma. Further investigation is warranted, and a randomized trial is ongoing.

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We employed two independent approaches to inactivate the angiogenic protein VEGF in newborn mice: inducible, Cre-loxP- mediated gene targeting, or administration of mFlt(1-3)-IgG, a soluble VEGF receptor chimeric protein. Partial inhibition of VEGF achieved by inducible gene targeting resulted in increased mortality, stunted body growth and impaired organ development, most notably of the liver. Administration of mFlt(1-3)-IgG, which achieves a higher degree of VEGF inhibition, resulted in nearly complete growth arrest and lethality. Ultrastructural analysis documented alterations in endothelial and other cell types. Histological and biochemical changes consistent with liver and renal failure were observed. Endothelial cells isolated from the liver of mFlt(1-3)-IgG-treated neonates demonstrated an increased apoptotic index, indicating that VEGF is required not only for proliferation but also for survival of endothelial cells. However, such treatment resulted in less significant alterations as the animal matured, and the dependence on VEGF was eventually lost some time after the fourth postnatal week. Administration of mFlt(1-3)-IgG to juvenile mice failed to induce apoptosis in liver endothelial cells. Thus, VEGF is essential for growth and survival in early postnatal life. However, in the fully developed animal, VEGF is likely to be involved primarily in active angiogenesis processes such as corpus luteum development.

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The association of trans-acting T cell factors (TCFs) or lymphoid enhancer factor 1 (LEF-1) with their coactivator beta-catenin mediates transient transcriptional responses to extracellular Wnt signals. We show here that T cell maturation depends on the presence of the beta-catenin--binding domain in TCF-1. This domain is necessary to mediate the survival of immature CD4(+)CD8(+) double-positive (DP) thymocytes. Accelerated spontaneous thymocyte death in the absence of TCF-1 correlates with aberrantly low expression of the anti-apoptotic protein Bcl-x(L). Increasing anti-apoptotic effectors in thymocytes by the use of a Bcl-2 transgene rescued TCF-1-deficient DP thymocytes from apoptosis. Thus, TCF-1, upon association with beta-catenin, transiently ensures the survival of immature T cells, which enables them to generate and edit T cell receptor (TCR) alpha chains and attempt TCR-mediated positive selection.

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BACKGROUND/AIMS: Alveolar echinococcosis (AE) is a serious liver disease. The aim of this study was to explore the long-term prognosis of AE patients, the burden of this disease in Switzerland and the cost-effectiveness of treatment. METHODS: Relative survival analysis was undertaken using a national database with 329 patient records. 155 representative cases had sufficient details regarding treatment costs and patient outcome to estimate the financial implications and treatment costs of AE. RESULTS: For an average 54-year-old patient diagnosed with AE in 1970 the life expectancy was estimated to be reduced by 18.2 and 21.3 years for men and women, respectively. By 2005 this was reduced to approximately 3.5 and 2.6 years, respectively. Patients undergoing radical surgery had a better outcome, whereas the older patients had a poorer prognosis than the younger patients. Costs amount to approximately Euro108,762 per patient. Assuming the improved life expectancy of AE patients is due to modern treatment the cost per disability-adjusted life years (DALY) saved is approximately Euro6,032. CONCLUSIONS: Current treatments have substantially improved the prognosis of AE patients compared to the 1970s. The cost per DALY saved is low compared to the average national annual income. Hence, AE treatment is highly cost-effective in Switzerland.

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Objectif : En Suisse, la réadaptation est financée en¦partie par l'assureur qui fixe préalablement à l'admission¦un nombre de jours (durée garantie) qu'il s'engage¦à rembourser. Lorsqu'une durée garantie est trop courte,¦une demande de prolongation est nécessaire, induisant¦des démarches administratives. Les objectifs de cette¦étude étaient a) d'étudier le lien entre durées garanties¦et caractéristiques du patient ; b) d'estimer les coûts¦liés aux demandes de prolongation ; c) d'évaluer¦l'impact de l'introduction d'un modèle d'attribution de¦durée garantie basé sur l'état fonctionnel du patient.¦Méthodes : Les corrélations entre état fonctionnel,¦durée effective et durée garantie ont été testées sur¦208 séjours représentatifs. Des durées garanties fictives¦ont été calculées à partir de la médiane de durée de¦séjour de 2 335 patients, groupés selon leur niveau¦fonctionnel (score des activités de base de la vie quotidienne¦(BAVQ) 0-1 vs 2-4 vs 5-6), puis comparées aux¦durées de séjour effectives et garanties.¦Résultats : L'état fonctionnel du patient n'est pas¦corrélé à la durée garantie, et 69 % des séjours nécessitent¦au moins une demande de prolongation, représentant¦2,6 équivalents temps plein en temps administratif¦projeté sur le canton. L'application du modèle proposé¦réduirait de 28 % les demandes de prolongation, et¦n'augmenterait que marginalement la proportion de¦jours garantis en surplus (11,2 % contre 6,5 % actuellement).¦Conclusion : L'utilisation systématique d'un modèle¦d'attribution de durées garanties basées sur l'état¦fonctionnel du patient permettrait de réduire sensiblement¦les coûts administratifs liés aux demandes de¦prolongation, sans entraîner de risque accru d'une augmentation¦de la durée de séjour.

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BACKGROUND: A central question for understanding the evolutionary responses of plant species to rapidly changing environments is the assessment of their potential for short-term (in one or a few generations) genetic change. In our study, we consider the case of Pinus pinaster Aiton (maritime pine), a widespread Mediterranean tree, and (i) test, under different experimental conditions (growth chamber and semi-natural), whether higher recruitment in the wild from the most successful mothers is due to better performance of their offspring; and (ii) evaluate genetic change in quantitative traits across generations at two different life stages (mature trees and seedlings) that are known to be under strong selection pressure in forest trees. RESULTS: Genetic control was high for most traits (h2 = 0.137-0.876) under the milder conditions of the growth chamber, but only for ontogenetic change (0.276), total height (0.415) and survival (0.719) under the more stressful semi-natural conditions. Significant phenotypic selection gradients were found in mature trees for traits related to seed quality (germination rate and number of empty seeds). Moreover, female relative reproductive success was significantly correlated with offspring performance for specific leaf area (SLA) in the growth chamber experiment, and stem mass fraction (SMF) in the experiment under semi-natural conditions, two adaptive traits related to abiotic stress-response in pines. Selection gradients based on genetic covariance of seedling traits and responses to selection at this stage involved traits related to biomass allocation (SMF) and growth (as decomposed by a Gompertz model) or delayed ontogenetic change, depending also on the testing environment. CONCLUSIONS: Despite the evidence of microevolutionary change in adaptive traits in maritime pine, directional or disruptive changes are difficult to predict due to variable selection at different life stages and environments. At mature-tree stages, higher female effective reproductive success can be explained by differences in their production of offspring (due to seed quality) and, to a lesser extent, by seemingly better adapted seedlings. Selection gradients and responses to selection for seedlings also differed across experimental conditions. The distinct processes involved at the two life stages (mature trees or seedlings) together with environment-specific responses advice caution when predicting likely evolutionary responses to environmental change in Mediterranean forest trees.

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Objectives:To investigate the associations between falls before hospital¦admission, falls during hospitalization, and length of stay in elderly¦people admitted to post-acute geriatric rehabilitation. Method: History¦of falling in the previous 12 months before admission was recorded¦among 249 older persons (mean age 82.3±7.4 years, 69.1% women)¦consecutively admitted to post-acute rehabilitation. Data on medical,¦functional and cognitive status were collected upon admission. Falls¦during hospitalization and length of stay were recorded at discharge.¦Results: Overall, 92 (40.4%) patients reported no fall in the 12 months¦before admission; 63(27.6%) reported 1 fall, and 73(32.0%) reported¦multiple falls. Previous falls occurrence (one or more falls) was significantly¦associated with in-stay falls (19.9% of previous fallers fell¦during the stay vs 7.6% in patients without history of falling, P=.01),¦and with a longer length of stay (22.4 ± 10.1 days vs 27.1 ± 14.3 days,¦P=.01). In multivariate robust regression controlling for gender, age,¦functional and cognitive status, history of falling remained significantly¦associated with longer rehabilitation stay (2.8 days more in single fallers,¦p=.05, and 3.3 days more in multiple fallers, p=.0.1, compared to¦non-fallers). Conclusion: History of falling in the 12 months prior to¦post acute geriatric rehabilitation is independently associated with a¦longer rehabilitation length of stay. Previous fallers have also an¦increased risk of falling during rehabilitation stay. This suggests that¦hospital fall prevention measures should particularly target these high¦riskpatients.

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Introduction: Falls efficacy, defined as confidence in performing activities without falling, is a measure of fear of falling associated with gait impairment, falls and functional decline in frail older people. This relationship has not been well studied in high-functioning older people. Objective: To evaluate the relationship between falls efficacy and gait performance in a cohort of high-functioning older people. Methods: Subjects (N = 864) were a subsample of communitydwelling older people aged 65 to 70 years, enrolled in the "Lc65+" cohort, who completed gait assessment at baseline. Data were collected on demographics, functional, cognitive, affective, and health status. Falls efficacy was assessed using the Falls Efficacy Scale- International (FES-I) that measures confidence in performing 16 activities of daily life (ADL) without falling (score from 16 to 64, higher score indicates lower confidence). Gait parameters were measured over a 20 m walk at preferred gait speed using Physilog, an ambulatory gait monitoring system. Results: Participants (mean age 68.0 ± 1.4 years, 55.0% women) had excellent physical (92.2% independent in basic ADL, mean gait speed 1.13 ± 0.16 m/sec) and cognitive (98.0% with MMSE 024) performance. Nevertheless, 22.1% reported depressive symptoms and 16.1% one or more fall in the previous year. Mean FES-I score was 18.8 ± 4.1. Falls efficacy was associated with gait speed (Spearman rho -0.23, P <.001) and gait variability (Spearman rho 0.10, P = .006), measured by the coefficient of variation of stride velocity. These associations remained in multivariate analysis for both gait speed (adj [beta] coeff: -0.008, 95%CI -0.005 to -0.010, P <.001) and gait variability (adj [beta] coeff 0.024, 95%CI 0.003 to 0.045, P = .023) independent of gender, falls, functional, affective, cognitive, and frailty (Fried's criteria) status. On average, compared to subjects with poor confidence in performing one ADL without falling, those with full confidence had a 0.02 m/sec (2%) faster gait speed and a 2% decrease in gait variability. Conclusion: Even in high-functioning older people, poor falls efficacy is associated with reduced gait speed and stability, independent of health, functional, and frailty status. The direction of this relationship needs to be investigated prospectively to determine causality and design interventions to improve gait performance, reduce fall risk, and prevent functional decline.

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Models predicting species spatial distribution are increasingly applied to wildlife management issues, emphasising the need for reliable methods to evaluate the accuracy of their predictions. As many available datasets (e.g. museums, herbariums, atlas) do not provide reliable information about species absences, several presence-only based analyses have been developed. However, methods to evaluate the accuracy of their predictions are few and have never been validated. The aim of this paper is to compare existing and new presenceonly evaluators to usual presence/absence measures. We use a reliable, diverse, presence/absence dataset of 114 plant species to test how common presence/absence indices (Kappa, MaxKappa, AUC, adjusted D-2) compare to presenceonly measures (AVI, CVI, Boyce index) for evaluating generalised linear models (GLM). Moreover we propose a new, threshold-independent evaluator, which we call "continuous Boyce index". All indices were implemented in the B10MAPPER software. We show that the presence-only evaluators are fairly correlated (p > 0.7) to the presence/absence ones. The Boyce indices are closer to AUC than to MaxKappa and are fairly insensitive to species prevalence. In addition, the Boyce indices provide predicted-toexpected ratio curves that offer further insights into the model quality: robustness, habitat suitability resolution and deviation from randomness. This information helps reclassifying predicted maps into meaningful habitat suitability classes. The continuous Boyce index is thus both a complement to usual evaluation of presence/absence models and a reliable measure of presence-only based predictions.

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In contrast to other cell cycle inhibitors, the tumor suppressor p16Ink4a is not detectable or expressed at very low levels in embryonic and adult mouse tissues, and therefore it has often been considered as a specialized checkpoint protein that does not participate in the control of normal cell cycle progression. However, Ink4a-/- mice possess increased thymus size and cellularity, thus suggesting the involvement of p16(Ink4a) in the control of thymocyte proliferation. In this study, we found increased numbers of CD8 and CD4 T lymphocytes in thymus and spleen from Ink4a-/- mice. Unexpectedly, this was not related to an increase in T-cell division rates, which were similar in lymphoid organs of Ink4a-/- and wild-type mice. In contrast, T-cell apoptosis rates were significantly decreased in thymus and spleen from Ink4a-/- mice. Moreover, whereas p16Ink4a-deficient and wild-type T cells were equally sensitive to Fas or TCR-mediated apoptosis, the former were clearly more resistant to apoptosis induced by oxidative stress or gamma irradiation. Our results indicate that p16Ink4a function is associated with T-cell apoptosis, and subsequently contributes to the control of T-cell population size in lymphoid organs.

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Apart from several growth factors which play a crucial role in the survival and development of the central and peripheral nervous systems, thyroid hormones can affect different processes involved in the differentiation and maturation of neurons. The present study was initiated to determine whether triiodothyronine (T3) affects the survival and neurite outgrowth of primary sensory neurons in vitro. Dorsal root ganglia (DRG) from 19-day-old embryos or newborn rats were plated in explant or dissociated cell cultures. The effect of T3 on neuron survival was tested, either in mixed DRG cell cultures, where neurons grow with non-neuronal cells, or in neuron-enriched cultures where non-neuronal cells were eliminated at the outset. T3, in physiological concentrations, promoted the growth of neurons in mixed DRG cell cultures as well as in neuron-enriched cultures without added nerve growth factor (NGF). Since neuron survival in neuron-enriched cultures cannot be promoted by endogenous neurotrophic factors synthesized by non-neuronal cells, the increased number of surviving neurons was due to a direct trophic action of T3. Another trophic effect was revealed in this study: T3 sustained the neurite outgrowth of sensory neurons in DRG explants. The stimulatory effect of T3 on nerve fibre outgrowth was considerably reduced when non-neuronal cell proliferation was inhibited by the antimitotic agent cytosine arabinoside, and was completely suppressed when the great majority of non-neuronal cells were eliminated in neuron-enriched cultures. These results indicate that the stimulatory effect of T3 on neurite outgrowth is mediated through non-neuronal cells. It is conceivable that T3 up-regulates Schwann cell expression of a neurotrophic factor, which in turn stimulates axon growth of sensory neurons. Together, these results demonstrate that T3 promotes both survival and neurite outgrowth of primary sensory neurons in DRG cell cultures. The trophic actions of T3 on neuron survival and neurite outgrowth operate under two different pathways.

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Rapport de synthèse: Les rendez-vous manqués représentent un problème important, tant du point de vue de la santé des patients que du point de vue économique. Pourtant peu d'études se sont penchées sur le sujet, particulièrement dans une population d'adolescents. Les buts de cette étude étaient de caractériser les adolescents qui sont à risque de manquer ou d'annuler leurs rendez-vous dans une clinique ambulatoire de santé pour adolescents, de comparer les taux des rendez-vous manqués et annulés entre les différents intervenants et d'estimer l'efficacité d'une politique de taxation des rendez-vous manqués non excusés. Finalement, un modèle multi-niveau markovien a été utilisé afin de prédire le risque de manquer un rendez-vous. Ce modèle tient compte du passé de l'adolescent en matière de rendez-vous manqués et d'autres covariables et permet de grouper les individus ayant un comportement semblable. On peut ensuite prédire pour chaque groupe le risque de manquer ou annuler et les covariables influençant significativement ce risque. Entre 1999 et 2006, 32816 rendez-vous fixés pour 3577 patients âgés de 12 à 20 ans ont été analysés. Le taux de rendez-vous manqués était de 11.8%, alors que 10.9% avaient été annulés. Soixante pour cent des patients n'ont pas manqué un seul de leur rendezvous et 14% en ont manqué plus de 25%. Nous avons pu mettre en évidence plusieurs variables associées de manière statistiquement significative avec les taux de rendez-vous manqués et d'annulations (genre, âge, heure, jour de la semaine, intervenant thérapeutique). Le comportement des filles peut être catégorisé en 2 groupes. Le premier groupe inclut les diagnostiques psychiatriques et de trouble du comportement alimentaire, le risque de manquer dans ce groupe étant faible et associé au fait d'avoir précédemment manqué un rendez-vous et au délai du rendez-vous. Les autres diagnostiques chez les filles sont associés à un second groupe qui montre un risque plus élevé de manquer un rendez-vous et qui est associé à l'intervenant, au fait d'avoir précédemment manqué ou annulé le dernier rendez-vous et au délai du rendez-vous. Les garçons ont tous globalement un comportement similaire concernant les rendez-vous manqués. Le diagnostic au sein de ce groupe influence le risque de manquer, tout comme le fait d'avoir précédemment manqué ou annulé un rendez-vous, le délai du rendez-vous et l'âge du patient. L'introduction de la politique de taxation des rendez-vous non excusés n'a pas montré de différence significative des tàux de rendez-vous manqués, cependant cette mesure a permis une augmentation du taux d'annulations. En conclusion, les taux de présence des adolescents à leurs rendez-vous sont dépendants de facteurs divers. Et, même si les adolescents sont une population à risque concernant les rendez-vous manqués, la majorité d'entre eux ne manquent aucun de leurs rendez-vous, ceci étant vrai pour les deux sexes. Etudier les rendez-vous manqués et les adolescents qui sont à risque de rater leur rendez-vous est un pas nécessaire vers le contrôle de ce phénomène. Par ailleurs, les moyens de contrôle concernant les rendez-vous manqués devraient cibler les patients ayant déjà manqué un rendez-vous. La taxation des rendez-vous manqués permet d'augmenter les rendez-vous annulés, ce qui a l'avantage de permettre de fixer un nouveau rendez-vous et, de ce fait, d'améliorer la continuité des soins.