Where will conflicts between alien and rare species occur after climate and land-use change? A test with a novel combined modelling approach

Protecting native biodiversity against alien invasive species requires powerful methods to anticipate these invasions and to protect native species assumed to be at risk. Here, we describe how species distribution models (SDMs) can be used to identify areas predicted as suitable for rare native species and also predicted as highly susceptible to invasion by alien species, at present and under future climate and land-use scenarios. To assess the condition and dynamics of such conflicts, we developed a combined predictive modelling (CPM) approach, which predicts species distributions by combining two SDMs fitted using subsets of predictors classified as acting at either regional or local scales. We illustrate the CPM approach for an alien invader and a rare species associated to similar habitats in northwest Portugal. Combined models predict a wider variety of potential species responses, providing more informative projections of species distributions and future dynamics than traditional, non-combined models. They also provide more informative insight regarding current and future rare-invasive conflict areas. For our studied species, conflict areas of highest conservation relevance are predicted to decrease over the next decade, supporting previous reports that some invasive species may contract their geographic range and impact due to climate change. More generally, our results highlight the more informative character of the combined approach to address practical issues in conservation and management programs, especially those aimed at mitigating the impact of invasive plants, land-use and climate changes in sensitive regions

Comparison of the clientele of an anonymous HIV test centre and persons tested in the general population.

This study compares the clientele of a Swiss anonymous test centre with the general population tested. Information was obtained through similar questionnaires submitted to two samples of HIV-tested people aged from 17 to 45 years: the first administered in the context of a general population telephone survey (n = 245) and the second completed during face-to-face interviews of the clientele of an anonymous test centre (n = 250). The test centre sample has higher proportions of younger and single people. Attenders for anonymous testing were more likely to have acquired a new regular partner during the year preceding the interview (48.0% versus 14.4%). These differences remain when controlling for age and gender. Decision to test comes mostly from the respondent's own initiative, but suggestion from a doctor is more frequent in the general population (23.8% versus 0.8%), whereas suggestion from partner or friends is more frequent in the anonymous centre (44.4% versus 3.0%). The anonymous test centre clientele is not different from the general population tested except for the relational situation and origin of decision for testing. The test centre has become a place where the general population finds a response to a situation-specific need for HIV testing.

Multivariate QST-FST comparisons: a neutrality test for the evolution of the g matrix in structured populations.

Neutrality tests in quantitative genetics provide a statistical framework for the detection of selection on polygenic traits in wild populations. However, the existing method based on comparisons of divergence at neutral markers and quantitative traits (Q(st)-F(st)) suffers from several limitations that hinder a clear interpretation of the results with typical empirical designs. In this article, we propose a multivariate extension of this neutrality test based on empirical estimates of the among-populations (D) and within-populations (G) covariance matrices by MANOVA. A simple pattern is expected under neutrality: D = 2F(st)/(1 - F(st))G, so that neutrality implies both proportionality of the two matrices and a specific value of the proportionality coefficient. This pattern is tested using Flury's framework for matrix comparison [common principal-component (CPC) analysis], a well-known tool in G matrix evolution studies. We show the importance of using a Bartlett adjustment of the test for the small sample sizes typically found in empirical studies. We propose a dual test: (i) that the proportionality coefficient is not different from its neutral expectation [2F(st)/(1 - F(st))] and (ii) that the MANOVA estimates of mean square matrices between and among populations are proportional. These two tests combined provide a more stringent test for neutrality than the classic Q(st)-F(st) comparison and avoid several statistical problems. Extensive simulations of realistic empirical designs suggest that these tests correctly detect the expected pattern under neutrality and have enough power to efficiently detect mild to strong selection (homogeneous, heterogeneous, or mixed) when it is occurring on a set of traits. This method also provides a rigorous and quantitative framework for disentangling the effects of different selection regimes and of drift on the evolution of the G matrix. We discuss practical requirements for the proper application of our test in empirical studies and potential extensions.

Reliability and validity of the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT) imbedded within a general health risk screening questionnaire: results of a survey in 332 primary care patients.

BACKGROUND: Self-administered, general health risk screening questionnaires that are administered while patients wait in the doctor's office may be a reasonable and timesaving approach to address the requirements of preventive medicine in a typical 10-min medical visit. The psychometric characteristics of the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT) incorporated within a health questionnaire (H-AUDIT) have not been examined. METHODS: The reliability and validity of the self-administered AUDIT were compared between the H-AUDIT and the AUDIT used as a single scale (S-AUDIT) in 332 primary care patients. RESULTS: No major demographic or alcohol use characteristics were found between the 166 subjects who completed the H-AUDIT and the 166 individuals who completed the S-AUDIT. The test-retest reliability of the 166 subjects who completed the H-AUDIT [estimated by Spearman correlation coefficient at a 6-week interval (0.88), internal consistency (total correlation coefficients for all items ranged from 0.38 to 0.69; Cronbach alpha index 0.85), and the sensitivity and specificity of the H-AUDIT were used to identify at-risk drinkers' areas under receiver operating characteristic (0.77) and alcohol-dependent subjects' areas under receiver operating characteristic (0.89)] was similar to the same measurements obtained with the 166 individuals who completed the S-AUDIT. CONCLUSIONS: The AUDIT incorporated in a health risk screening questionnaire is a reliable and valid self-administered instrument to identify at-risk drinkers and alcohol-dependent individuals in primary care settings.

Respiratory motion artifact suppression in diffusion-weighted MR imaging of the spine.

Diffusion-weighted spin-echo imaging of the spine has been successfully implemented for differentiation of benign fracture edema and tumor infiltration of the vertebral body. Nevertheless, this technique still suffers from insufficient image quality in numerous patients due to motion artifacts. The aim of this study was to investigate the impact of variable respiratory motion artifact suppression techniques on image quality in diffusion-weighted spin-echo imaging of the spine. In addition to phase-encoding reordering, a newly implemented right hemi-diaphragmaitc navigator for respiratory gating was used. Subjective and objective image quality parameters were compared. Respiratory motion artifact suppression has a major impact on image quality in diffusion-weighted imaging of the spine. Phase-encoding reordering does not enhance image quality while right hemi-diaphragmatic respiratory navigator gating significantly improves image quality at the cost of data acquisition time. Navigator gating should be used if standard spin-echo diffusion-weighted imaging demonstrates insufficient image quality.

Rapid Diagnostic Test-Based Management of Malaria: An Effectiveness Study in Papua New Guinean Infants With Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax Malaria.

Background. In malaria-endemic areas it is recommended that febrile children be tested for malaria by rapid diagnostic test (RDT) or blood slide (BS) and receive effective malaria treatment only if results are positive. However, RDTs are known to perform less well for Plasmodium vivax. We evaluated the safety of withholding antimalarial drugs from young Papua New Guinean children with negative RDT results in areas with high levels of both Plasmodium falciparum and P. vivax infections. Methods. longitudinal prospective study of children aged 3-27 months visiting outpatient clinics for fever. RDT was administered at first visit. RDT and microscopy were performed if children returned because of persistent symptoms. Outcomes were rates of reattendance and occurrence of severe illnesses. Results. Of 5670 febrile episodes, 3942 (70%) involved a negative RDT result. In 133 cases (3.4%), the children reattended the clinic within 7 days for fever, of whom 29 (0.7%) were parasitemic by RDT or microscopy. Of children who reattended, 24 (0.7%) presented with a severe illness: 2 had lower respiratory tract infections (LRTIs) with low-density P. vivax on BS; 2 received a diagnosis of P. vivax malaria on the basis of RDT but BSs were negative; 16 had LRTIs; 3 had alternative diagnoses. Of these 24, 22 were cured at day 28. Two children died of illnesses other than malaria and were RDT and BS negative at the initial and subsequent visits. Conclusion. Treatment for malaria based on RDT results is safe and feasible even in infants living in areas with moderate to high endemicity for both P. falciparum and P. vivax infections.

Testing advances in molecular discrimination among Chinook salmon life histories: evidence from a blind test.

The application of DNA-based markers toward the task of discriminating among alternate salmon runs has evolved in accordance with ongoing genomic developments and increasingly has enabled resolution of which genetic markers associate with important life-history differences. Accurate and efficient identification of the most likely origin for salmon encountered during ocean fisheries, or at salvage from fresh water diversion and monitoring facilities, has far-reaching consequences for improving measures for management, restoration and conservation. Near-real-time provision of high-resolution identity information enables prompt response to changes in encounter rates. We thus continue to develop new tools to provide the greatest statistical power for run identification. As a proof of concept for genetic identification improvements, we conducted simulation and blind tests for 623 known-origin Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) to compare and contrast the accuracy of different population sampling baselines and microsatellite loci panels. This test included 35 microsatellite loci (1266 alleles), some known to be associated with specific coding regions of functional significance, such as the circadian rhythm cryptochrome genes, and others not known to be associated with any functional importance. The identification of fall run with unprecedented accuracy was demonstrated. Overall, the top performing panel and baseline (HMSC21) were predicted to have a success rate of 98%, but the blind-test success rate was 84%. Findings for bias or non-bias are discussed to target primary areas for further research and resolution.

Contact tracing investigation after professional exposure to tuberculosis in a Swiss hospital using both tuberculin skin test and IGRA.

SETTING: A 950 bed teaching hospital in Switzerland. AIM: To describe the result of a contact investigation among health care workers (HCW) and patients after exposure to a physician with smear-positive pulmonary tuberculosis in a hospital setting using standard tuberculin skin tests (TST) and Interferon-gamma release assay (IGRA). METHOD: HCW with a negative or unknown TST at hiring had a TST two weeks after the last contact with the index case (T0), repeated six weeks later if negative (T6). All exposed HCW had a T-SPOT.TB at T0 and T6. Exposed patients had a TST six weeks after the last contact, and a T-SPOT.TB if the TST was positive. RESULTS: Among 101 HCW, 17/73 (22%) had a positive TST at T0. TST was repeated in 50 at T6 and converted from negative to positive in eight (16%). Twelve HCW had a positive T-SPOT.TB at T0 and ten converted from negative to positive at T6. Seven HCW with a positive T-SPOT.TB reverted to negative at T6 or at later controls, most of them with test values close to the cut-off. Among 27 exposed patients tested at six weeks, ten had a positive TST, five of them confirmed by a positive T-SPOT.TB. CONCLUSIONS: HCW tested twice after exposure to a case of smear-positive pulmonary TB demonstrated a possible conversion in 10% with T-SPOT and 16% with TST. Some T-SPOT.TB reverted from positive to negative during the follow-up, mostly tests with a value close to the cut-off. Due to the variability of the test results, it seems advisable to repeat the test with values close to the cut-off before diagnosing the presence of a tuberculous infection.