Modelling the influence of change in fire regime on the local distribution of a Mediterranean pyrophytic plant species (Cistus salviifolius) at its northern range limit

Aims: To assess the potential distribution of an obligate seeder and active pyrophyte, Cistus salviifolius, a vulnerable species in the Swiss Red List; to derive scenarios by changing the fire return interval; and to discuss the results from a conservation perspective. A more general aim is to assess the impact of fire as a natural factor influencing the vegetation of the southern slopes of the Alps. Locations: Alps, southern Switzerland. Methods: Presence-absence data to fit the model were obtained from the most recent field mapping of C. salviifolius. The quantitative environmental predictors used in this study include topographic, climatic and disturbance (fire) predictors. Models were fitted by logistic regression and evaluated by jackknife and bootstrap approaches. Changes in fire regime were simulated by increasing the time-return interval of fire (simulating longer periods without fire). Two scenarios were considered: no fire in the past 15 years; or in the past 35 years. Results: Rock cover, slope, topographic position, potential evapotranspiration and time elapsed since the last fire were selected in the final model. The Nagelkerke R-2 of the model for C. salviifolius was 0.57 and the Jackknife area under the curve evaluation was 0.89. The bootstrap evaluation revealed model robustness. By increasing the return interval of fire by either up to 15 years, or 35 years, the modelled C. salviifolius population declined by 30-40%, respectively. Main conclusions: Although fire plays a significant role, topography and rock cover appear to be the most important predictors, suggesting that the distribution of C. salviifolius in the southern Swiss Alps is closely related to the availability of supposedly competition-free sites, such as emerging bedrock, ridge locations or steep slopes. Fire is more likely to play a secondary role in allowing C. salviifolius to extend its occurrence temporarily, by increasing germination rates and reducing the competition from surrounding vegetation. To maintain a viable dormant seed bank for C. salviifolius, conservation managers should consider carrying out vegetation clearing and managing wild fire propagation to reduce competition and ensure sufficient recruitment for this species.

An improved approach for predicting the distribution of rare and endangered species from occurrence and pseudo-absence data

1. Few examples of habitat-modelling studies of rare and endangered species exist in the literature, although from a conservation perspective predicting their distribution would prove particularly useful. Paucity of data and lack of valid absences are the probable reasons for this shortcoming. Analytic solutions to accommodate the lack of absence include the ecological niche factor analysis (ENFA) and the use of generalized linear models (GLM) with simulated pseudo-absences. 2. In this study we tested a new approach to generating pseudo-absences, based on a preliminary ENFA habitat suitability (HS) map, for the endangered species Eryngium alpinum. This method of generating pseudo-absences was compared with two others: (i) use of a GLM with pseudo-absences generated totally at random, and (ii) use of an ENFA only. 3. The influence of two different spatial resolutions (i.e. grain) was also assessed for tackling the dilemma of quality (grain) vs. quantity (number of occurrences). Each combination of the three above-mentioned methods with the two grains generated a distinct HS map. 4. Four evaluation measures were used for comparing these HS maps: total deviance explained, best kappa, Gini coefficient and minimal predicted area (MPA). The last is a new evaluation criterion proposed in this study. 5. Results showed that (i) GLM models using ENFA-weighted pseudo-absence provide better results, except for the MPA value, and that (ii) quality (spatial resolution and locational accuracy) of the data appears to be more important than quantity (number of occurrences). Furthermore, the proposed MPA value is suggested as a useful measure of model evaluation when used to complement classical statistical measures. 6. Synthesis and applications. We suggest that the use of ENFA-weighted pseudo-absence is a possible way to enhance the quality of GLM-based potential distribution maps and that data quality (i.e. spatial resolution) prevails over quantity (i.e. number of data). Increased accuracy of potential distribution maps could help to define better suitable areas for species protection and reintroduction.

A critical evaluation of secondary cancer risk models applied to Monte Carlo dose distributions of 2-dimensional, 3-dimensional conformal and hybrid intensity-modulated radiation therapy for breast cancer.

The comparison of radiotherapy techniques regarding secondary cancer risk has yielded contradictory results possibly stemming from the many different approaches used to estimate risk. The purpose of this study was to make a comprehensive evaluation of different available risk models applied to detailed whole-body dose distributions computed by Monte Carlo for various breast radiotherapy techniques including conventional open tangents, 3D conformal wedged tangents and hybrid intensity modulated radiation therapy (IMRT). First, organ-specific linear risk models developed by the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) and the Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiation (BEIR) VII committee were applied to mean doses for remote organs only and all solid organs. Then, different general non-linear risk models were applied to the whole body dose distribution. Finally, organ-specific non-linear risk models for the lung and breast were used to assess the secondary cancer risk for these two specific organs. A total of 32 different calculated absolute risks resulted in a broad range of values (between 0.1% and 48.5%) underlying the large uncertainties in absolute risk calculation. The ratio of risk between two techniques has often been proposed as a more robust assessment of risk than the absolute risk. We found that the ratio of risk between two techniques could also vary substantially considering the different approaches to risk estimation. Sometimes the ratio of risk between two techniques would range between values smaller and larger than one, which then translates into inconsistent results on the potential higher risk of one technique compared to another. We found however that the hybrid IMRT technique resulted in a systematic reduction of risk compared to the other techniques investigated even though the magnitude of this reduction varied substantially with the different approaches investigated. Based on the epidemiological data available, a reasonable approach to risk estimation would be to use organ-specific non-linear risk models applied to the dose distributions of organs within or near the treatment fields (lungs and contralateral breast in the case of breast radiotherapy) as the majority of radiation-induced secondary cancers are found in the beam-bordering regions.

Quantification of Myocardial Perfusion Using 13N-ammonia PET: a Cross-Comparison Study on Analysis Software Packages - Carimas, PMOD and FlowQuant

Aim. Several software packages (SWP) and models have been released for quantification of myocardial perfusion (MP). Although they all are validated against something, the question remains how well their values agree. The present analysis focused on cross-comparison of three SWP for MP quantification of 13N-ammonia PET studies. Materials & Methods. 48 rest and stress MP 13N-ammonia PET studies of hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) patients (Sciagrà et al., 2009) were analysed with three SW packages - Carimas, PMOD, and FlowQuant - by three observers blinded to the results of each other. All SWP implement the one-tissue-compartment model (1TCM, DeGrado et al. 1996), and first two - the two-tissue-compartment model (2TCM, Hutchins et al. 1990) as well. Linear mixed model for the repeated measures was fitted to the data. Where appropriate we used Bland-Altman plots as well. The reproducibility was assessed on global, regional and segmental levels. Intraclass correlation coefficients (ICC), differences between the SWPs and between models were obtained. ICC≥0.75 indicated excellent reproducibility, 0.4≤ICC<0.75 indicated fair to good reproducibility, ICC<0.4 - poor reproducibility (Rosner, 2010). Results. When 1TCM MP values were compared, the SW agreement on global and regional levels was excellent, except for Carimas vs. PMOD at RCA: ICC=0.715 and for PMOD vs. FlowQuant at LCX:ICC=0.745 which were good. In segmental analysis in five segments: 7,12,13, 16, and 17 the agreement between all SWP was excellent; in the remaining 12 segments the agreement varied between the compared SWP. Carimas showed excellent agreement with FlowQuant in 13 segments and good in four - 1, 5, 6, 11: 0.687≤ICCs≤0.73; Carimas had excellent agreement with PMOD in 11 segments, good in five_4, 9, 10, 14, 15: 0.682≤ICCs≤0.737, and poor in segment 3: ICC=0.341. PMOD had excellent agreement with FlowQuant in eight segments and substantial-to-good in nine_1, 2, 3, 5, 6,8-11: 0.585≤ICCs≤0.738. Agreement between Carimas and PMOD for 2TCM was good at a global level: ICC=0.745, excellent at LCX (0.780) and RCA (0.774), good at LAD (0.662); agreement was excellent for ten segments, fair-to-substantial for segments 2, 3, 8, 14, 15 (0.431≤ICCs≤0.681), poor for segments 4 (0.384) and 17 (0.278). Conclusions. The three SWP used by different operators to analyse 13N-ammonia PET MP studies provide results that agree well at a global level, regional levels, and mostly well even at a segmental level. Agreement is better for 1TCM. Poor agreement at segments 4 and 17 for 2TCM needs further clarification.

Importance of abiotic stress as a range-limit determinant for European plants: insights from species' responses to climatic gradients

Aim We examined whether species occurrences are primarily limited by physiological tolerance in the abiotically more stressful end of climatic gradients (the asymmetric abiotic stress limitation (AASL) hypothesis) and the geographical predictions of this hypothesis: abiotic stress mainly determines upper-latitudinal and upper-altitudinal species range limits, and the importance of abiotic stress for these range limits increases the further northwards and upwards a species occurs. Location Europe and the Swiss Alps. Methods The AASL hypothesis predicts that species have skewed responses to climatic gradients, with a steep decline towards the more stressful conditions. Based on presence-absence data we examined the shape of plant species responses (measured as probability of occurrence) along three climatic gradients across latitudes in Europe (1577 species) and altitudes in the Swiss Alps (284 species) using Huisman-Olff-Fresco, generalized linear and generalized additive models. Results We found that almost half of the species from Europe and one-third from the Swiss Alps showed responses consistent with the predictions of the AASL hypothesis. Cold temperatures and a short growing season seemed to determine the upper-latitudinal and upper-altitudinal range limits of up to one-third of the species, while drought provided an important constraint at lower-latitudinal range limits for up to one-fifth of the species. We found a biome-dependent influence of abiotic stress and no clear support for abiotic stress as a stronger upper range-limit determinant for species with higher latitudinal and altitudinal distributions. However, the overall influence of climate as a range-limit determinant increased with latitude. Main conclusions Our results support the AASL hypothesis for almost half of the studied species, and suggest that temperature-related stress controls the upper-latitudinal and upper-altitudinal range limits of a large proportion of these species, while other factors including drought stress may be important at the lower range limits.

Measuring the relative effect of factors affecting species distribution model predictions

1. Species distribution models are increasingly used to address conservation questions, so their predictive capacity requires careful evaluation. Previous studies have shown how individual factors used in model construction can affect prediction. Although some factors probably have negligible effects compared to others, their relative effects are largely unknown. 2. We introduce a general "virtual ecologist" framework to study the relative importance of factors involved in the construction of species distribution models. 3. We illustrate the framework by examining the relative importance of five key factors-a missing covariate, spatial autocorrelation due to a dispersal process in presences/absences, sample size, sampling design and modeling technique-in a real study framework based on plants in a mountain landscape at regional scale, and show that, for the parameter values considered here, most of the variation in prediction accuracy is due to sample size and modeling technique. Contrary to repeatedly reported concerns, spatial autocorrelation has only comparatively small effects. 4. This study shows the importance of using a nested statistical framework to evaluate the relative effects of factors that may affect species distribution models.

Is the relationship between major depressive disorder and self-reported alcohol use disorder an artificial one ?

AIMS: Many studies have suggested a close relationship between alcohol use disorder (AUD) and major depressive disorder (MDD). This study aimed to test whether the relationship between self-reported AUD and MDD was artificially strengthened by the diagnosis of MDD. This association was tested comparing relationships between alcohol use and AUD for depressive people and non-depressive people. METHODS: As part of the Cohort Study on Substance Use Risk Factors, 4352 male Swiss alcohol users in their early twenties answered questions concerning their alcohol use, AUD and MDD at two time points. Generalized linear models for cross-sectional and longitudinal associations were calculated. RESULTS: For cross-sectional associations, depressive participants reported a higher number of AUD symptoms (β = 0.743, P < 0.001) than non-depressive participants. Moreover, there was an interaction (β = -0.204, P = 0.001): the relationship between alcohol use and AUD was weaker for depressive participants rather than non-depressive participants. For longitudinal associations, there were almost no significant relationships between MDD at baseline and AUD at follow-up, but the interaction was still significant (β = -0.249, P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: MDD thus appeared to be a confounding variable in the relationship between alcohol use and AUD, and self-reported measures of AUD seemed to be overestimated by depressive people. This result brings into question the accuracy of self-reported measures of substance use disorders. Furthermore, it adds to the emerging debate about the usefulness of substance use disorder as a concept, when heavy substance use itself appears to be a sensitive and reliable indicator.

Tree cover at fine and coarse spatial grains interacts with shade tolerance to shape plant species distributions across the Alps

The role of competition for light among plants has long been recognized at local scales, but its potential importance for plant species' distribution at larger spatial scales has largely been ignored. Tree cover acts as a modulator of local abiotic conditions, notably by reducing light availability below the canopy and thus the performance of species that are not adapted to low-light conditions. However, this local effect may propagate to coarser spatial grains. Using 6,935 vegetation plots located across the European Alps, we fit Generalized Linear Models (GLM) for the distribution of 960 herbs and shrubs species to assess the effect of tree cover at both plot and landscape grain sizes (~ 10-m and 1-km, respectively). We ran four models with different combinations of variables (climate, soil and tree cover) for each species at both spatial grains. We used partial regressions to evaluate the independent effects of plot- and landscape-scale tree cover on plant communities. Finally, the effects on species' elevational range limits were assessed by simulating a removal experiment comparing the species' distribution under high and low tree cover. Accounting for tree cover improved model performance, with shade-tolerant species increasing their probability of presence at high tree cover whereas shade-intolerant species showed the opposite pattern. The tree cover effect occurred consistently at both plot and landscape spatial grains, albeit strongest at the former. Importantly, tree cover at the two grain sizes had partially independent effects on plot-scale plant communities, suggesting that the effects may be transmitted to coarser grains through meta-community dynamics. At high tree cover, shade-intolerant species exhibited elevational range contractions, especially at their upper limit, whereas shade-tolerant species showed elevational range expansions at both limits. Our findings suggest that the range shifts for herb and shrub species may be modulated by tree cover dynamics.

4B.05: Plasma Lasma copeptin is associated with insulin resistance in a Swiss population-based study

OBJECTIVE: Previous studies suggest that arginine vasopressin may have a role in metabolic syndrome (MetS) and diabetes by altering liver glycogenolysis, insulin, and glucagon secretion and pituitary ACTH release. We tested whether plasma copeptin, the stable C-terminal fragment of arginine vasopressin prohormone, was associated with insulin resistance and MetS in a Swiss population-based study. DESIGN AND METHOD: We analyzed data from the population-based Swiss Kidney Project on Genes in Hypertension. Copeptin was assessed by an immunoluminometric assay. Insulin resistance was derived from the HOMA model and calculated as follows: (FPI x FPG)/22.5, where FPI is fasting plasma insulin concentration (mU/L) and FPG fasting plasma glucose (mmol/L). Subjects were classified as having the MetS according to the National Cholesterol Education Program Adult Treatment Panel III criteria. Mixed multivariate linear regression models were built to explore the association of insulin resistance with copeptin. In addition, multivariate logistic regression models were built to explore the association between MetS and copeptin. In the two analyses, adjustment was done for age, gender, center, tobacco and alcohol consumption, socioeconomic status, physical activity, intake of fruits and vegetables and 24 h urine flow rate. Copeptin was log-transformed for the analyses. RESULTS: Among the 1,089 subjects included in this analysis, 47% were male. Mean (SD) age and body mass index were 47.4 (17.6) years 25.0 (4.5) kg/m2. The prevalence of MetS was 10.5%. HOMA-IR was higher in men (median 1.3, IQR 0.7-2.1) than in women (median 1.0, IQR 0.5-1.6,P < 0.0001). Plasma copeptin was higher in men (median 5.2, IQR 3.7-7.8 pmol/L) than in women (median 3.0, IQR 2.2-4.3 pmol/L), P < 0.0001. HOMA-IR was positively associated with log-copeptin after full adjustment (β (95% CI) 0.19 (0.09-0.29), P < 0.001). MetS was not associated with copeptin after full adjustment (P = 0.92). CONCLUSIONS: Insulin resistance, but not MetS, was associated with higher copeptin levels. Further studies should examine whether modifying pharmacologically the arginine vasopressin system might improve insulin resistance, thereby providing insight into the causal nature of this association.

Multicontrast MRI Quantification of Focal Inflammation and Degeneration in Multiple Sclerosis.

INTRODUCTION: Local microstructural pathology in multiple sclerosis patients might influence their clinical performance. This study applied multicontrast MRI to quantify inflammation and neurodegeneration in MS lesions. We explored the impact of MRI-based lesion pathology in cognition and disability. METHODS: 36 relapsing-remitting MS subjects and 18 healthy controls underwent neurological, cognitive, behavioural examinations and 3 T MRI including (i) fluid attenuated inversion recovery, double inversion recovery, and magnetization-prepared gradient echo for lesion count; (ii) T1, T2, and T2(*) relaxometry and magnetisation transfer imaging for lesion tissue characterization. Lesions were classified according to the extent of inflammation/neurodegeneration. A generalized linear model assessed the contribution of lesion groups to clinical performances. RESULTS: Four lesion groups were identified and characterized by (1) absence of significant alterations, (2) prevalent inflammation, (3) concomitant inflammation and microdegeneration, and (4) prevalent tissue loss. Groups 1, 3, 4 correlated with general disability (Adj-R (2) = 0.6; P = 0.0005), executive function (Adj-R (2) = 0.5; P = 0.004), verbal memory (Adj-R (2) = 0.4; P = 0.02), and attention (Adj-R (2) = 0.5; P = 0.002). CONCLUSION: Multicontrast MRI provides a new approach to infer in vivo histopathology of plaques. Our results support evidence that neurodegeneration is the major determinant of patients' disability and cognitive dysfunction.

Independent and combined associations of risky single-occasion drinking and drinking volume with alcohol use disorder: Evidence from a sample of young Swiss men.

BACKGROUND: Risky single-occasion drinking (RSOD) is a prevalent and potentially harmful alcohol use pattern associated with increased alcohol use disorder (AUD). However, RSOD is commonly associated with a higher level of alcohol intake, and most studies have not controlled for drinking volume (DV). Thus, it is unclear whether the findings provide information about RSOD or DV. This study sought to investigate the independent and combined effects of RSOD and DV on AUD. METHODS: Data were collected in the longitudinal Cohort Study on Substance Use Risk Factors (C-SURF) among 5598 young Swiss male alcohol users in their early twenties. Assessment included DV, RSOD, and AUD at two time points. Generalized linear models for binomial distributions provided evidence regarding associations of DV, RSOD, and their interaction. RESULTS: DV, RSOD, and their interaction were significantly related to the number of AUD criteria. The slope of the interaction was steeper for non/rare RSOD than for frequent RSOD. CONCLUSIONS: RSOD appears to be a harmful pattern of drinking, associated with increased AUD and it moderated the relationship between DV and AUD. This study highlighted the importance of taking drinking patterns into account, for both research and public health planning, since RSO drinkers constitute a vulnerable subgroup for AUD.

Pharmacogenetics-based population pharmacokinetic analysis of efavirenz in HIV-1-infected individuals.

Besides CYP2B6, other polymorphic enzymes contribute to efavirenz (EFV) interindividual variability. This study was aimed at quantifying the impact of multiple alleles on EFV disposition. Plasma samples from 169 human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) patients characterized for CYP2B6, CYP2A6, and CYP3A4/5 allelic diversity were used to build up a population pharmacokinetic model using NONMEM (non-linear mixed effects modeling), the aim being to seek a general approach combining genetic and demographic covariates. Average clearance (CL) was 11.3 l/h with a 65% interindividual variability that was explained largely by CYP2B6 genetic variation (31%). CYP2A6 and CYP3A4 had a prominent influence on CL, mostly when CYP2B6 was impaired. Pharmacogenetics fully accounted for ethnicity, leaving body weight as the only significant demographic factor influencing CL. Square roots of the numbers of functional alleles best described the influence of each gene, without interaction. Functional genetic variations in both principal and accessory metabolic pathways demonstrate a joint impact on EFV disposition. Therefore, dosage adjustment in accordance with the type of polymorphism (CYP2B6, CYP2A6, or CYP3A4) is required in order to maintain EFV within the therapeutic target levels.

Factors associated with 24-hour urinary volume: the Swiss salt survey.

BACKGROUND: Low 24-hour urine volume (24 UV) may be a significant risk factor for decline in kidney function. We therefore aimed to study associated markers and possible determinants of 24 UV in a sample of the Swiss population. METHODS: The cross-sectional Swiss Salt Study included a population-based sample of 1535 (746 men and 789 women) individuals from three linguistic regions of Switzerland. Data from 1300 subjects were available for the present analysis. 24 UV was measured using 24-hour urine collection. Determinants of 24 UV were identified using multivariable linear regression models. RESULTS: In bivariate analysis, 24 UV was higher in women compared to men (2000 ml/24 h [interquartile range (IQR): 1354, 2562] versus 1780 ml/24 h [IQR: 1244, 2360], p = 0.002). In multivariable regression analyses, independent associated markers of 24 UV were female sex (β = 280, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 174, 386, p < 0.0001), fluid intake (β = 604, 95% CI: 539, 670, p < 0.0001), sodium excretion (β = 4.2, 95% CI: 3.4, 4.9, p < 0.0001) age (β = 6.6, CI: 3.4, 9.7, p < .0001), creatinine clearance (β = 2.4, CI: 0.2, 4.6, p = 0.04), living in the German-speaking part of Switzerland (β = 124, CI: 29, 219, p = 0.01), alcohol consumption (β = 41, CI: 9, 73, p = 0.01 for increasing categories of alcohol consumption), body mass index (β = -32, CI: -45, -18, p < 0.0001), current smoking (β = -146, CI: -265, -26, p = 0.02), and consumption of meat and cold cut (β = -56, CI: -108, -5, p = 0.03). CONCLUSION: In this large population-based, cross-sectional study, we found several strong and independent correlates for 24 UV. These findings may be important to improve our understanding in the development of chronic kidney disease.

Genotype 3 is associated with rapid histological progression in chronic HCV infection

While several risk factors for the histological progression of chronic hepatitis C have been identified, the contribution of HCV genotypes to liver fibrosis evolution remains controversial. The aim of the present study was to assess independent predictors for fibrosis progression. Methods: We identified 1540 patients from the Swiss Hepatitis C Cohort database with at least one liver biopsy prior to antiviral treatment. Factors associated with fibrosis stage, steatosis and histological activity were assessed in univariate and multivariate regression models. Fibrosis progression rate per year was calculated in a subgroup of 1263 patients, in whom risk factors were assessed by cumulative incidence curves, logistic and linear regression models. Results: Independent risk factors for rapid fibrosis progression included male sex (OR = 1.66, 95% CI 1.25-2.21, P <0.001), age at infection (OR = 1.08, 95% CI 1.06-1.10, P <0.001), histological activity (OR = 2.14, 95% CI 1.61-2.85, P <0.001) and genotype 3 (OR = 1.97, 95% CI 1.43-2.72, P <0.001). Genotype 2 was associated with slow progression (OR = 0.51, 95% CI 0.30-0.89, P = 0.02), but this observation may be due to the decreased prevalence of genotype 2 over the last decades, leading to an overrepresentation of subjects with genotype 2 with a slow progression rate. Conclusion: This study shows a significant association of genotype 3 with accelerated fibrosis. While assessing risk factors for fibrosis progression, the changing epidemiology of HCV genotypes over time needs to be taken into account.

Family physician involvement in cancer care and lung cancer patient emotional distress and quality of life.

PURPOSE: This study aims to describe emotional distress and quality of life (QoL) of patients at different phases of their lung cancer and the association with their family physician (FP) involvement. METHODS: A prospective study on patients with lung cancer was conducted in three regions of Quebec, Canada. Patients completed, at baseline, several validated questionnaires regarding their psychosocial characteristics and their perceived level of FP involvement. Emotional distress [profile of mood states (POMS)] and QoL [European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer Quality of Life Core 30 (EORTC QLQ-C30)] were reassessed every 3-6 months, whether patients had metastasis or not, up to 18 months. Results were regrouped according to cancer phase. Mixed models with repeated measurements were performed to identify variation in distress and QoL. RESULTS: In this cohort of 395 patients, distress was low at diagnosis (0.79 ± 0.7 on a 0-4 scale), raising to 1.36 ± 0.8 at the advance phase (p < 0.0001). Patient's global QoL scores significantly decreased from the diagnosis to the advance phase (from 66 to 45 on a 0-100 scale; p < 0.0001). At all phases of cancer, FP involvement was significantly associated with patients' distress (p = 0.0004) and their global perception of QoL (p = 0.0080). These associations remained statistically significant even after controlling for age, gender, and presence of metastases. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides new knowledge on patients' emotional distress and QoL with cancer evolution and, particularly, their association with FP involvement. Other studies should be conducted to further explore FP role in cancer supportive care.