Cost-effective experimental design to support modeling of concentration-response functions

Modeling concentration-response function became extremely popular in ecotoxicology during the last decade. Indeed, modeling allows determining the total response pattern of a given substance. However, reliable modeling is consuming in term of data, which is in contradiction with the current trend in ecotoxicology, which aims to reduce, for cost and ethical reasons, the number of data produced during an experiment. It is therefore crucial to determine experimental design in a cost-effective manner. In this paper, we propose to use the theory of locally D-optimal designs to determine the set of concentrations to be tested so that the parameters of the concentration-response function can be estimated with high precision. We illustrated this approach by determining the locally D-optimal designs to estimate the toxicity of the herbicide dinoseb on daphnids and algae. The results show that the number of concentrations to be tested is often equal to the number of parameters and often related to the their meaning, i.e. they are located close to the parameters. Furthermore, the results show that the locally D-optimal design often has the minimal number of support points and is not much sensitive to small changes in nominal values of the parameters. In order to reduce the experimental cost and the use of test organisms, especially in case of long-term studies, reliable nominal values may therefore be fixed based on prior knowledge and literature research instead of on preliminary experiments

Analysis of joint laxity after total ankle arthroplasty: cadaver study.

BACKGROUND: Clinical results of total ankle arthroplasty with early designs were disappointing. Recently-developed ankle prostheses have good mid-term results; however, limited information is available regarding effects of total ankle arthroplasty on ankle laxity. METHODS: Eight cadaveric lower extremities were tested with a custom device which enabled measurement of multi-axial forces, moments, and displacement during applied axial, shear, and rotational loading. Tests consisted of anterior-posterior and medial-lateral translation and internal-external rotation of the talus relative to the tibia during axial loads on the tibia simulating body weight (700 N) and an unloaded condition (5 N). Tests were performed in neutral, dorsiflexion, and plantarflexion. Laxity was determined for the intact ankle, and following insertion of an unconstrained total ankle implant, comparing load-displacement curve. FINDINGS: Laxity after total ankle arthroplasty did not approximate the normal ankle in most conditions tested. Displacement was significantly greater for total ankle arthroplasty in both posterior and lateral translation, and internal rotation, with 5 N axial loading, and anterior-posterior, medial-lateral translation, and internal-external rotation for 700 N axial loading. For the 700 N axial load condition, in the neutral ankle position, total anterior-posterior translation averaged 0.4 mm (SD 0.2 mm), but 6.0 mm (SD 1.5 mm) after total ankle arthroplasty (P<0.01). This study demonstrated more laxity in the replaced ankle than normal ankle for both unloaded and 700 N axially loaded conditions. INTERPRETATION: These data indicate the increased responsibility of the ligaments for ankle laxity after total ankle arthroplasty and suggest the importance of meticulous ligament reconstruction with total ankle arthroplasty operations.

Counterfactuals and causal inference: Methods and principles for social research

"Most quantitative empirical analyses are motivated by the desire to estimate the causal effect of an independent variable on a dependent variable. Although the randomized experiment is the most powerful design for this task, in most social science research done outside of psychology, experimental designs are infeasible. (Winship & Morgan, 1999, p. 659)." This quote from earlier work by Winship and Morgan, which was instrumental in setting the groundwork for their book, captures the essence of our review of Morgan and Winship's book: It is about causality in nonexperimental settings.

Bacterial sensors: synthetic design and application principles

Bacterial reporters are live, genetically engineered cells with promising application in bioanalytics. They contain genetic circuitry to produce a cellular sensing element, which detects the target compound and relays the detection to specific synthesis of so-called reporter proteins (the presence or activity of which is easy to quantify). Bioassays with bacterial reporters are a useful complement to chemical analytics because they measure biological responses rather than total chemical concentrations. Simple bacterial reporter assays may also replace more costly chemical methods as a first line sample analysis technique. Recent promising developments integrate bacterial reporter cells with microsystems to produce bacterial biosensors. This lecture presents an in-depth treatment of the synthetic biological design principles of bacterial reporters, the engineering of which started as simple recombinant DNA puzzles, but has now become a more rational approach of choosing and combining sensing, controlling and reporting DNA 'parts'. Several examples of existing bacterial reporter designs and their genetic circuitry will be illustrated. Besides the design principles, the lecture also focuses on the application principles of bacterial reporter assays. A variety of assay formats will be illustrated, and principles of quantification will be dealt with. In addition to this discussion, substantial reference material is supplied in various Annexes.

Test result-based sampling: an efficient design for estimating the accuracy of patient safety indicators.

OBJECTIVE: Accuracy studies of Patient Safety Indicators (PSIs) are critical but limited by the large samples required due to low occurrence of most events. We tested a sampling design based on test results (verification-biased sampling [VBS]) that minimizes the number of subjects to be verified. METHODS: We considered 3 real PSIs, whose rates were calculated using 3 years of discharge data from a university hospital and a hypothetical screen of very rare events. Sample size estimates, based on the expected sensitivity and precision, were compared across 4 study designs: random and VBS, with and without constraints on the size of the population to be screened. RESULTS: Over sensitivities ranging from 0.3 to 0.7 and PSI prevalence levels ranging from 0.02 to 0.2, the optimal VBS strategy makes it possible to reduce sample size by up to 60% in comparison with simple random sampling. For PSI prevalence levels below 1%, the minimal sample size required was still over 5000. CONCLUSIONS: Verification-biased sampling permits substantial savings in the required sample size for PSI validation studies. However, sample sizes still need to be very large for many of the rarer PSIs.

Looking for Validity or Testing It? The Perils of Stepwise Regression, Extreme-Scores Analysis, Heteroscedasticity, and Measurement Error

When researchers introduce a new test they have to demonstrate that it is valid, using unbiased designs and suitable statistical procedures. In this article we use Monte Carlo analyses to highlight how incorrect statistical procedures (i.e., stepwise regression, extreme scores analyses) or ignoring regression assumptions (e.g., heteroscedasticity) contribute to wrong validity estimates. Beyond these demonstrations, and as an example, we re-examined the results reported by Warwick, Nettelbeck, and Ward (2010) concerning the validity of the Ability Emotional Intelligence Measure (AEIM). Warwick et al. used the wrong statistical procedures to conclude that the AEIM was incrementally valid beyond intelligence and personality traits in predicting various outcomes. In our re-analysis, we found that the reliability-corrected multiple correlation of their measures with personality and intelligence was up to .69. Using robust statistical procedures and appropriate controls, we also found that the AEIM did not predict incremental variance in GPA, stress, loneliness, or well-being, demonstrating the importance for testing validity instead of looking for it.

Inferring recent migration rates from individual genotypes.

We present a novel and straightforward method for estimating recent migration rates between discrete populations using multilocus genotype data. The approach builds upon a two-step sampling design, where individual genotypes are sampled before and after dispersal. We develop a model that estimates all pairwise backwards migration rates (m(ij), the probability that an individual sampled in population i is a migrant from population j) between a set of populations. The method is validated with simulated data and compared with the methods of BayesAss and Structure. First, we use data for an island model and then we consider more realistic data simulations for a metapopulation of the greater white-toothed shrew (Crocidura russula). We show that the precision and bias of estimates primarily depend upon the proportion of individuals sampled in each population. Weak sampling designs may particularly affect the quality of the coverage provided by 95% highest posterior density intervals. We further show that it is relatively insensitive to the number of loci sampled and the overall strength of genetic structure. The method can easily be extended and makes fewer assumptions about the underlying demographic and genetic processes than currently available methods. It allows backwards migration rates to be estimated across a wide range of realistic conditions.

A road map toward a globally harmonized approach for occupational health surveillance and epidemiology in nanomaterial workers

OBJECTIVE: Few epidemiological studies have addressed the health of workers exposed to novel manufactured nanomaterials. The small current workforce will necessitate pooling international cohorts. METHOD: A road map was defined for a globally harmonized framework for the careful choice of materials, exposure characterization, identification of study populations, definition of health endpoints, evaluation of appropriateness of study designs, data collection and analysis, and interpretation of the results. RESULTS: We propose a road map to reach global consensus on these issues. The proposed strategy should ensure that the costs of action are not disproportionate to the potential benefits and that the approach is pragmatic and practical. CONCLUSIONS: We should aim to go beyond the collection of health complaints, illness statistics, or even counts of deaths; the manifestation of such clear endpoints would indicate a failure of preventive measures.

Tire traces: discrimination and classification of pyrolysis-GC/MS profiles

Tire traces can be observed on several crime scenes as vehicles are often used by criminals. The tread abrasion on the road, while braking or skidding, leads to the production of small rubber particles which can be collected for comparison purposes. This research focused on the statistical comparison of Py-GC/MS profiles of tire traces and tire treads. The optimisation of the analytical method was carried out using experimental designs. The aim was to determine the best pyrolysis parameters regarding the repeatability of the results. Thus, the pyrolysis factor effect could also be calculated. The pyrolysis temperature was found to be five time more important than time. Finally, a pyrolysis at 650 °C during 15 s was selected. Ten tires of different manufacturers and models were used for this study. Several samples were collected on each tire, and several replicates were carried out to study the variability within each tire (intravariability). More than eighty compounds were integrated for each analysis and the variability study showed that more than 75% presented a relative standard deviation (RSD) below 5% for the ten tires, thus supporting a low intravariability. The variability between the ten tires (intervariability) presented higher values and the ten most variant compounds had a RSD value above 13%, supporting their high potential of discrimination between the tires tested. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was able to fully discriminate the ten tires with the help of the first three principal components. The ten tires were finally used to perform braking tests on a racetrack with a vehicle equipped with an anti-lock braking system. The resulting tire traces were adequately collected using sheets of white gelatine. As for tires, the intravariability for the traces was found to be lower than the intervariability. Clustering methods were carried out and the Ward's method based on the squared Euclidean distance was able to correctly group all of the tire traces replicates in the same cluster than the replicates of their corresponding tire. Blind tests on traces were performed and were correctly assigned to their tire source. These results support the hypothesis that the tested tires, of different manufacturers and models, can be discriminated by a statistical comparison of their chemical profiles. The traces were found to be not differentiable from their source but differentiable from all the other tires present in the subset. The results are promising and will be extended on a larger sample set.

Prospective sampling based on model ensembles improves the detection of rare species

Identifying the geographic distribution of populations is a basic, yet crucial step in many fundamental and applied ecological projects, as it provides key information on which many subsequent analyses depend. However, this task is often costly and time consuming, especially where rare species are concerned and where most sampling designs generally prove inefficient. At the same time, rare species are those for which distribution data are most needed for their conservation to be effective. To enhance fieldwork sampling, model-based sampling (MBS) uses predictions from species distribution models: when looking for the species in areas of high habitat suitability, chances should be higher to find them. We thoroughly tested the efficiency of MBS by conducting an important survey in the Swiss Alps, assessing the detection rate of three rare and five common plant species. For each species, habitat suitability maps were produced following an ensemble modeling framework combining two spatial resolutions and two modeling techniques. We tested the efficiency of MBS and the accuracy of our models by sampling 240 sites in the field (30 sitesx8 species). Across all species, the MBS approach proved to be effective. In particular, the MBS design strictly led to the discovery of six sites of presence of one rare plant, increasing chances to find this species from 0 to 50%. For common species, MBS doubled the new population discovery rates as compared to random sampling. Habitat suitability maps coming from the combination of four individual modeling methods predicted well the species' distribution and more accurately than the individual models. As a conclusion, using MBS for fieldwork could efficiently help in increasing our knowledge of rare species distribution. More generally, we recommend using habitat suitability models to support conservation plans.

The Strengthening the Reporting of Observational Studies in Epidemiology (STROBE) Statement: Guidelines for reporting observational studies.

Much biomedical research is observational. The reporting of such research is often inadequate, which hampers the assessment of its strengths and weaknesses and of a study's generalisability. The Strengthening the Reporting of Observational Studies in Epidemiology (STROBE) Initiative developed recommendations on what should be included in an accurate and complete report of an observational study. We defined the scope of the recommendations to cover three main study designs: cohort, case-control, and cross-sectional studies. We convened a 2-day workshop in September 2004, with methodologists, researchers, and journal editors to draft a checklist of items. This list was subsequently revised during several meetings of the coordinating group and in e-mail discussions with the larger group of STROBE contributors, taking into account empirical evidence and methodological considerations. The workshop and the subsequent iterative process of consultation and revision resulted in a checklist of 22 items (the STROBE Statement) that relate to the title, abstract, introduction, methods, results, and discussion sections of articles. 18 items are common to all three study designs and four are specific for cohort, case-control, or cross-sectional studies. A detailed Explanation and Elaboration document is published separately and is freely available on the Web sites of PLoS Medicine, Annals of Internal Medicine, and Epidemiology. We hope that the STROBE Statement will contribute to improving the quality of reporting of observational studies.

Objective results at 1 year of a new ultracongruent postero-stabilized total knee arthroplasty

Introduction: A new ultra congruent, postero-stabilized total knee arthroplasty (TKA) with a mobile bearing, the FIRST knee prosthesis (Free Insert in Rotation Stabilized in Translation, Symbios SA), was designed and expected to significantly reduce polyethylene wear, to improve the range of motion and the overall stability of the knee while ensuring a physiological ligament balance. Gait analysis has proven to give really objective outcome parameters after lower limb surgery. The goal of our study was to compare the subjective and really objective results of this new TKA with two other widespread models of TKA. Methods: A clinical prospective monocentric cohort study of 100 consecutive patients (47-88 yrs) undergoing a FIRST TKA for primary osteoarthritis is currently being done. Pre- and post-operative follow-ups (6 weeks, 4 months and 1 year) were done with well-recognized subjective evaluations (EQ-5D and WOMAC scores) and semi-objective questionnaires (KSS score and radiography evaluation) as well as with a really objective evaluation using gait parameters from 6 walking trials, performed at different speeds (slow, normal and fast) with an ambulatory gait analysis system (Physilog®, BioAGM CH). The outcomes of the first 32 new TKA after one year of follow-up were compared to the results after 1 year of a randomized controlled clinical trial comparing 29 NexGen® postero-stabilized TKA (Zimmer Inc) with a fixed bearing and 26 NexGen® TKA with a mobile bearing using the same methods. Results: Subjective and semi-objective results were similar for the three types of TKA. As for the really objective parameters, the gait cycle time of the FIRST TKA was statistically significantly shorter at normal speed of walk, as well as double-support periods, as compared to both standard models. The extension (in terms of range of motion when walking) of the operated knee was significantly improved for all three types of walk in favour of the FIRST TKAs compared to both NexGen TKAs. The normal walking speed was significantly higher with faster swing speed and stride lengths for the new TKA. Significantly better coordination scores were observed at normal walking speed for the FIRST TKA as compared to the fixed-bearing TKAs. Conclusion: The FIRST TKAs showed statistically significantly better objective outcomes in terms of gait after one year of follow-up with similar subjective and semi-objective results in comparison with widespread TKA designs. These encouraging short-terms results will have to be confirmed at a 5 years follow-up of the FIRST TKAs.

Uric acid and cardio-metabolic risk factors : an epidemiological approach

The role of serum uric acid (SUA) in cardio-metabolic conditions has long been contentious. It is still unclear if SUA is an independent risk factor or marker of cardio-metabolic conditions and most observed associations are not necessarily causal. This study aimed to further understand and explore the causal role of SUA in cardio-metabolic conditions using genetic and non-genetic epidemiological methods in population-based data. In the first part of this study, we found moderate to high heritability estimates for SUA and fractional excretion of urate (FEUA) suggesting the role of genetic factors in the etiology of hyperuricemia. With regards to the role of SUA on inflammatory markers (IMs), a strong positive association of SUA with C-reactive protein (CRP) and a weaker positive association with tumor necrosis factor alpha (TNF-α) and interleukin 6 (IL-6) was observed, which was in part mediated by body mass index (BMI). These findings suggest that SUA may have a role in sterile inflammation. In view of the inconsistency surrounding the causal nature and direction of the relation between SUA and adiposity, we applied a bidirectional Mendelian randomization approach using genetic variants to decipher the association. The finding that elevated SUA is a consequence rather than a cause of adiposity was not totally unexpected and is compatible with the hypothesis that hyperinsulinemia, accompanying obesity, enhances renal proximal tubular reabsorption of uric acid. The fourth part of this study examined the relationship between SUA and blood pressure (BP) in young adults. The association between SUA and BP, significant only in females, was strongly attenuated upon adjustment for BMI. The possibility that BMI lies in the causal pathway may explain the attenuation observed in the associations of SUA with BP and IMs. Finally, a significant hockey-stick shaped association of SUA with social phobia in our data suggests a protective effect of SUA only up to a certain concentration. Although our study findings have shed some light on the uncertainty underlying the pathophysiology of SUA, more compelling evidence using longitudinal designs, randomized controlled trials and the use of robust genetic tools is warranted to increase our understanding of the clinical significance of SUA.

Wear of two denture teeth materials in vivo-2-year results.

OBJECTIVE: (1) To quantify wear of two different denture tooth materials in vivo with two study designs, (2) to relate tooth variables to vertical loss. METHODS: Two different denture tooth materials had been used (experimental material=test; DCL=control). In study 1 (split-mouth, 6 test centers) 60 subjects received complete dentures, in study 2 (two-arm, 1 test center) 29 subjects. In study 1 the mandibular dentures were supported by implants in 33% of the subjects, in study 2 only in 3% of the subjects. Impressions of the dentures were taken and poured with improved stone at baseline and after 6, 12, 18 and 24 months. Each operator evaluated the wear subjectively. Wear analysis was carried out with a laser scanning device. Maximal vertical loss of the attrition zones was calculated for each tooth cusp and tooth. A mixed linear model was used to statistically analyse the logarithmically transformed wear data. RESULTS: Due to drop-outs and unmatchable casts, only 47 subjects of study 1 and 14 of study 2 completed the 2-year recall. Overall, 75% of all teeth present could be analysed. There was no statistically difference in the overall wear between the test and control material for either study 1 or study 2. The relative increase in wear over time was similar in both study designs. However, a strong subject effect and center effect were observed. The fixed factors included in the model (time, tooth, center, etc.) accounted for 43% of the variability, whereas the random subject effect accounted for another 30% of the variability, leaving about 28% of unexplained variability. More wear was consistently recorded in the maxillary teeth compared to the mandibular teeth and in the first molar teeth compared to the premolar teeth and the second molars. Likewise, the supporting cusps showed more wear than the non-supporting cusps. The amount of wear did not depend on whether or not the lower dentures were supported by implants. The subjective wear was correct in about 67% of the cases if it is postulated that a wear difference of 100μm should be subjectively detectable. SIGNIFICANCE: The clinical wear of denture teeth is highly variable with a strong patient effect. More wear can be expected in maxillary denture teeth compared to mandibular teeth, first molars compared to premolars and supported cusps compared to non-supported cusps. Laboratory data on the wear of denture tooth materials may not be confirmed in well-structured clinical trials probably due to the large inter-individual variability.