Modeling the biophysical impacts of global change in mountain biosphere reserves

Mountains and mountain societies provide a wide range of goods and services to humanity, but they are particularly sensitive to the effects of global environmental change. Thus, the definition of appropriate management regimes that maintain the multiple functions of mountain regions in a time of greatly changing climatic, economic, and societal drivers constitutes a significant challenge. Management decisions must be based on a sound understanding of the future dynamics of these systems. The present article reviews the elements required for an integrated effort to project the impacts of global change on mountain regions, and recommends tools that can be used at 3 scientific levels (essential, improved, and optimum). The proposed strategy is evaluated with respect to UNESCO's network of Mountain Biosphere Reserves (MBRs), with the intention of implementing it in other mountain regions as well. First, methods for generating scenarios of key drivers of global change are reviewed, including land use/land cover and climate change. This is followed by a brief review of the models available for projecting the impacts of these scenarios on (1) cryospheric systems, (2) ecosystem structure and diversity, and (3) ecosystem functions such as carbon and water relations. Finally, the cross-cutting role of remote sensing techniques is evaluated with respect to both monitoring and modeling efforts. We conclude that a broad range of techniques is available for both scenario generation and impact assessments, many of which can be implemented without much capacity building across many or even most MBRs. However, to foster implementation of the proposed strategy, further efforts are required to establish partnerships between scientists and resource managers in mountain areas.

Predicting current and future biological invasions: both native and invaded ranges matter.

The classical approach to predicting the geographical extent of species invasions consists of training models in the native range and projecting them in distinct, potentially invasible areas. However, recent studies have demonstrated that this approach could be hampered by a change of the realized climatic niche, allowing invasive species to spread into habitats in the invaded ranges that are climatically distinct from those occupied in the native range. We propose an alternative approach that involves fitting models with pooled data from all ranges. We show that this pooled approach improves prediction of the extent of invasion of spotted knapweed (Centaurea maculosa) in North America on models based solely on the European native range. Furthermore, it performs equally well on models based on the invaded range, while ensuring the inclusion of areas with similar climate to the European niche, where the species is likely to spread further. We then compare projections from these models for 2080 under a severe climate warming scenario. Projections from the pooled models show fewer areas of intermediate climatic suitability than projections from the native or invaded range models, suggesting a better consensus among modelling techniques and reduced uncertainty.

Education, Equity and Distributive Beliefs: Evidences from the Chilean Case

During the year 2011, Chile has been scenario of several student's demonstrations claiming for more equity in the access to the higher education. The high support to the protests by the side of the general population (nearly 89% of approval in public opinion polls) seems to suggest the existence of a large consensus about the weaknesses of the Chilean educative model, a model that would challenge the traditional ideals of meritocracy and social mobility that are at the core of the educational systems in modern societies. In this context, a question that remains open is to what extent these claims are mostly based on consensual equality ideals, or whether they are influenced by individual socio-economic determinants vis-à-vis rational motives. Using data of the social inequality module International Social Survey Program (ISSP) of 2009, this research analyzes perceptions and beliefs about education and the distributive system as well as the influence of income and educational variables, through a structural equation modeling framework. Preliminary results indicate the presence of socioeconomic cleavages in relation to the fairness of the educational system, questioning the assumption about a normative consensus.

Evolutionary origin and functions of retrogene introns.

Retroposed genes (retrogenes) originate via the reverse transcription of mature messenger RNAs from parental source genes and are therefore usually devoid of introns. Here, we characterize a particular set of mammalian retrogenes that acquired introns upon their emergence and thus represent rare cases of intron gain in mammals. We find that although a few retrogenes evolved introns in their coding or 3' untranslated regions (untranslated region, UTR), most introns originated together with untranslated exons in the 5' flanking regions of the retrogene insertion site. They emerged either de novo or through fusions with 5' UTR exons of host genes into which the retrogenes inserted. Generally, retrogenes with introns display high transcription levels and show broader spatial expression patterns than other retrogenes. Our experimental expression analyses of individual intron-containing retrogenes show that 5' UTR introns may indeed promote higher expression levels, at least in part through encoded regulatory elements. By contrast, 3' UTR introns may lead to downregulation of expression levels via nonsense-mediated decay mechanisms. Notably, the majority of retrogenes with introns in their 5' flanks depend on distant, sometimes bidirectional CpG dinucleotide-enriched promoters for their expression that may be recruited from other genes in the genomic vicinity. We thus propose a scenario where the acquisition of new 5' exon-intron structures was directly linked to the recruitment of distant promoters by these retrogenes, a process potentially facilitated by the presence of proto-splice sites in the genomic vicinity of retrogene insertion sites. Thus, the primary role and selective benefit of new 5' introns (and UTR exons) was probably initially to span the often substantial distances to potent CpG promoters driving retrogene transcription. Later in evolution, these introns then obtained additional regulatory roles in fine tuning retrogene expression levels. Our study provides novel insights regarding mechanisms underlying the origin of new introns, the evolutionary relevance of intron gain, and the origin of new gene promoters.

The variability of peridotite composition across a mantle shear zone (Lanzo massif, Italy): interplay of melt focusing and deformation

In this paper we present new data on the spatial variability of peridotite composition across a kilometer-scale mantle shear zone within the Lanzo massif (Western Alps, Italy). The shear zone separates the central from the northern part of the massif. Plagioclase peridotite shows gradually increasing deformation towards the shear zone, from porphyroclastic to mylonitic textures in the central body, while the northern body is composed of porphyroclastic rocks. The peridotite displays a large range of compositions, from fertile peridotite to refractory harzburgite and dunite. Deformed peridotites (proto-mylonite and mylonites) tend to be compositionally more homogeneous and fertile than weakly deformed peridotites. The composition of most plagioclase peridotites show rather high and constant (Ce/Yb) (N) ratios, and Yb (N) that cannot be explained by any simple melting model. Instead, refertilization modeling, consisting of melt increments from spinel peridotite sources, particularly with E-MORB melt, reasonably reproduces the plagioclase peridotite whole rock composition. Combined with constraints from Ce-Nb and Ce-Th systematics, we speculate that peridotites such as those from Lanzo record pervasive refertilization processes in the thermal boundary layer. In this scenario, mantle shear zones might act as important areas of melt focusing in the upper mantle that separates the thermal boundary layer from the conductively cooled mantle.

Medical and legal professionals' attitudes towards confidentiality and disclosure of clinical information in forensic settings: a survey using case vignettes.

OBJECTIVE: When potentially dangerous patients reveal criminal fantasies to their therapists, the latter must decide whether this information has to be transmitted to a third person in order to protect potential victims. We were interested in how medical and legal professionals handle such situations in the context of prison medicine and forensic evaluations. We aimed to explore the motives behind their actions and to compare these professional groups. METHOD: A mail survey was conducted among medical and legal professionals using five fictitious case vignettes. For each vignette, participants were asked to answer questions exploring what the professional should do in the situation and to explain their justification for the chosen response. RESULTS: A total of 147 questionnaires were analysed. Agreement between participants varied from one scenario to another. Overall, legal professionals tended to disclose information to a third party more easily than medical professionals, the latter tending to privilege confidentiality and patient autonomy over security. Perception of potential danger in a given situation was not consistently associated with actions. CONCLUSION: Professionals' opinions and attitudes regarding the confidentiality of potentially dangerous patients differ widely and appear to be subjectively determined. Shared discussions about clinical situations could enhance knowledge and competencies and reduce differences between professional groups.

Caval collapse during cardiopulmonary bypass: a reproducible bench model.

OBJECTIVES: During open heart surgery, so-called atrial chatter, a phenomenon due to right atria and/or caval collapse, is frequently observed. Collapse of the cava axis during cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB) limits venous drainage and may result downstream in reduced pump flow on (lack of volume) and upstream in increased after-load (stagnation), which in turn may both result in reduced or even inadequate end-organ perfusion. The goal of this study was to reproduce venous collapse in the flow bench. METHODS: In accordance with literature for venous anatomy, a caval tree system is designed (polyethylene, thickness 0.061 mm), which receives venous inflow from nine afferent veins. With water as medium and a preload of 4.4 mmHg, the system has an outflow of 4500 ml/min (Scenario A). After the insertion of a percutaneous venous cannula (23-Fr), the venous model is continuously served by the afferent branches in a venous test bench and venous drainage is augmented with a centrifugal pump (Scenario B). RESULTS: With gravity drainage (siphon: A), spontaneously reversible atrial chatter can be generated in reproducible fashion. Slight reduction in the outflow diameter allows for generation of continuous flow. With augmentation (B), irreversible collapse of the artificial vena cava occurs in reproducible fashion at a given pump speed of 2300 ± 50 RPM and a pump inlet pressure of -112 mmHg. Furthermore, bubbles form at the cannula tip despite the fact that the entire system is immersed in water and air from the environment cannot enter the system. This phenomenon is also known as cavitation and should be avoided because of local damage of both formed blood elements and endothelium, as well embolization. CONCLUSIONS: This caval model provides a realistic picture for the limitations of flow due to spontaneously reversible atrial chatter vs irreversible venous collapse for a given negative pressure during CPB. Temporary interruption of negative pressure in the venous line can allow for recovery of venous drainage. This know-how can be used not only for testing different cannula designs, but also for further optimizing perfusion strategies.

Asymmetric and differential gene introgression at a contact zone between two highly divergent lineages of field voles (Microtus agrestis).

Secondary contact zones have the potential to shed light on the mode and rate at which reproductive isolation accumulates during allopatric speciation. We investigated the population genetics of a contact zone between two highly divergent lineages of field voles (Microtus agrestis) in the Swiss Jura mountains. To shed light on the processes underlying introgression, we used maternally, paternally, and bi-parentally inherited markers. Though the two lineages maintained a strong genetic structure, we found some hybrids and evidence of gene flow. The extent of introgression varied with the mode of inheritance, being highest for mtDNA and absent for the Y chromosome. In addition, introgression was asymmetric, occurring only from the Northern to the Southern lineage. Both patterns seem parsimoniously explained by neutral processes linked to differences in effective sizes and sex-biased dispersal rates. The lineage with lower effective population size was also the more introgressed, and the mode-of-inheritance effect correlated with the male-biased dispersal rate of microtine rodents. We cannot exclude, however, that Haldane's effect contributed to the latter, as we found a marginally significant deficit in males (the heterogametic sex) among hybrids. We propose a possible demographic scenario to account for the patterns documented, and empirical extensions to further investigate this contact zone.

Predicted effect of climate change on the invasibility and distribution of the Western corn root-worm

1 Insect pests, biological invasions and climate change are considered to representmajor threats to biodiversity, ecosystem functioning, agriculture and forestry.Deriving hypothesis of contemporary and/or future potential distributions of insectpests and invasive species is becoming an important tool for predicting the spatialstructure of potential threats.2 The western corn rootworm (WCR) Diabrotica virgifera virgifera LeConte is apest of maize in North America that has invaded Europe in recent years, resultingin economic costs in terms of maize yields in both continents. The present studyaimed to estimate the dynamics of potential areas of invasion by the WCR under aclimate change scenario in the Northern Hemisphere. The areas at risk under thisscenario were assessed by comparing, using complementary approaches, the spatialprojections of current and future areas of climatic favourability of the WCR. Spatialhypothesis were generated with respect to the presence records in the native rangeof the WCR and physiological thresholds from previous empirical studies.3 We used a previously developed protocol specifically designed to estimatethe climatic favourability of the WCR. We selected the most biologicallyrelevant climatic predictors and then used multidimensional envelope (MDE) andMahalanobis distances (MD) approaches to derive potential distributions for currentand future climatic conditions.4 The results obtained showed a northward advancement of the upper physiologicallimit as a result of climate change, which might increase the strength of outbreaksat higher latitudes. In addition, both MDE and MD outputs predict the stability ofclimatic favourability for the WCR in the core of the already invaded area in Europe,which suggests that this zone would continue to experience damage from this pestin Europe.

Alu expression in human cell lines and their retrotranspositional potential.

BACKGROUND: The vast majority of the 1.1 million Alu elements are retrotranspositionally inactive, where only a few loci referred to as 'source elements' can generate new Alu insertions. The first step in identifying the active Alu sources is to determine the loci transcribed by RNA polymerase III (pol III). Previous genome-wide analyses from normal and transformed cell lines identified multiple Alu loci occupied by pol III factors, making them candidate source elements. FINDINGS: Analysis of the data from these genome-wide studies determined that the majority of pol III-bound Alus belonged to the older subfamilies Alu S and Alu J, which varied between cell lines from 62.5% to 98.7% of the identified loci. The pol III-bound Alus were further scored for estimated retrotransposition potential (ERP) based on the absence or presence of selected sequence features associated with Alu retrotransposition capability. Our analyses indicate that most of the pol III-bound Alu loci candidates identified lack the sequence characteristics important for retrotransposition. CONCLUSIONS: These data suggest that Alu expression likely varies by cell type, growth conditions and transformation state. This variation could extend to where the same cell lines in different laboratories present different Alu expression patterns. The vast majority of Alu loci potentially transcribed by RNA pol III lack important sequence features for retrotransposition and the majority of potentially active Alu loci in the genome (scored high ERP) belong to young Alu subfamilies. Our observations suggest that in an in vivo scenario, the contribution of Alu activity on somatic genetic damage may significantly vary between individuals and tissues.

Decision-making in lumbar spinal stenosis: A survey on the influence of the morphology of the dural sac.

Surgical decision-making in lumbar spinal stenosis involves assessment of clinical parameters and the severity of the radiological stenosis. We suspected that surgeons based surgical decisions more on dural sac cross-sectional area (DSCA) than on the morphology of the dural sac. We carried out a survey among members of three European spine societies. The axial T2-weighted MR images from ten patients with varying degrees of DSCA and morphological grades according to the recently described morphological classification of lumbar spinal stenosis, with DSCA values disclosed in half the assessed images, were used for evaluation. We provided a clinical scenario to accompany the images, which were shown to 142 responding physicians, mainly orthopaedic surgeons but also some neurosurgeons and others directly involved in treating patients with spinal disorders. As the primary outcome we used the number of respondents who would proceed to surgery for a given DSCA or morphological grade. Substantial agreement among the respondents was observed, with severe or extreme stenosis as defined by the morphological grade leading to surgery. This decision was not dependent on the number of years in practice, medical density or specialty. Disclosing the DSCA did not alter operative decision-making. In all, 40 respondents (29%) had prior knowledge of the morphological grading system, but their responses showed no difference from those who had not. This study suggests that the participants were less influenced by DSCA than by the morphological appearance of the dural sac. Classifying lumbar spinal stenosis according to morphology rather than surface measurements appears to be consistent with current clinical practice.

Development of appropriateness criteria for the surgical treatment of symptomatic lumbar degenerative spondylolisthesis (LDS).

PURPOSE: Spine surgery rates are increasing worldwide. Treatment failures are often attributed to poor patient selection and inappropriate treatment, but for many spinal disorders there is little consensus on the precise indications for surgery. With an aging population, more patients with lumbar degenerative spondylolisthesis (LDS) will present for surgery. The aim of this study was to develop criteria for the appropriateness of surgery in symptomatic LDS. METHODS: A systematic review was carried out to summarize the current level of evidence for the treatment of LDS. Clinical scenarios were generated comprising combinations of signs and symptoms in LDS and other relevant variables. Based on the systematic review and their own clinical experience, twelve multidisciplinary international experts rated each scenario on a 9-point scale (1 highly inappropriate, 9 highly appropriate) with respect to performing decompression only, fusion, and instrumented fusion. Surgery for each theoretical scenario was classified as appropriate, inappropriate, or uncertain based on the median ratings and disagreement in the ratings. RESULTS: 744 hypothetical scenarios were generated; overall, surgery (of some type) was rated appropriate in 27 %, uncertain in 41 % and inappropriate in 31 %. Frank panel disagreement was low (7 % scenarios). Face validity was shown by the logical relationship between each variable's subcategories and the appropriateness ratings, e.g., no/mild disability had a mean appropriateness rating of 2.3 ± 1.5, whereas the rating for moderate disability was 5.0 ± 1.6 and for severe disability, 6.6 ± 1.6. Similarly, the average rating for no/minimal neurological abnormality was 2.3 ± 1.5, increasing to 4.3 ± 2.4 for moderate and 5.9 ± 1.7 for severe abnormality. The three variables most likely (p < 0.0001) to be components of scenarios rated "appropriate" were: severe disability, no yellow flags, and severe neurological deficit. CONCLUSION: This is the first study to report criteria for determining candidacy for surgery in LDS developed by a multidisciplinary international panel using a validated method (RAM). The panel ratings followed logical clinical rationale, indicating good face validity. The work refines clinical classification and the phenotype of degenerative spondylolisthesis. The predictive validity of the criteria should be evaluated prospectively to examine whether patients treated "appropriately" have better clinical outcomes.

Modeling the forensic two-trace problem with Bayesian networks

The forensic two-trace problem is a perplexing inference problem introduced by Evett (J Forensic Sci Soc 27:375-381, 1987). Different possible ways of wording the competing pair of propositions (i.e., one proposition advanced by the prosecution and one proposition advanced by the defence) led to different quantifications of the value of the evidence (Meester and Sjerps in Biometrics 59:727-732, 2003). Here, we re-examine this scenario with the aim of clarifying the interrelationships that exist between the different solutions, and in this way, produce a global vision of the problem. We propose to investigate the different expressions for evaluating the value of the evidence by using a graphical approach, i.e. Bayesian networks, to model the rationale behind each of the proposed solutions and the assumptions made on the unknown parameters in this problem.