286 resultados para Penalized likelihood


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Tobacco consumption is a global epidemic responsible for a vast burden of disease. With pharmacological properties sought-after by consumers and responsible for addiction issues, nicotine is the main reason of this phenomenon. Accordingly, smokeless tobacco products are of growing popularity in sport owing to potential performance enhancing properties and absence of adverse effects on the respiratory system. Nevertheless, nicotine does not appear on the 2011 World Anti-Doping Agency (WADA) Prohibited List or Monitoring Program by lack of a comprehensive large-scale prevalence survey. Thus, this work describes a one-year monitoring study on urine specimens from professional athletes of different disciplines covering 2010 and 2011. A method for the detection and quantification of nicotine, its major metabolites (cotinine, trans-3-hydroxycotinine, nicotine-N'-oxide and cotinine-N-oxide) and minor tobacco alkaloids (anabasine, anatabine and nornicotine) was developed, relying on ultra-high pressure liquid chromatography coupled to triple quadrupole mass spectrometry (UHPLC-TQ-MS/MS). A simple and fast dilute-and-shoot sample treatment was performed, followed by hydrophilic interaction chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (HILIC-MS/MS) operated in positive electrospray ionization (ESI) mode with multiple reaction monitoring (MRM) data acquisition. After method validation, assessing the prevalence of nicotine consumption in sport involved analysis of 2185 urine samples, accounting for 43 different sports. Concentrations distribution of major nicotine metabolites, minor nicotine metabolites and tobacco alkaloids ranged from 10 (LLOQ) to 32,223, 6670 and 538 ng/mL, respectively. Compounds of interest were detected in trace levels in 23.0% of urine specimens, with concentration levels corresponding to an exposure within the last three days for 18.3% of samples. Likewise, hypothesizing conservative concentration limits for active nicotine consumption prior and/or during sport practice (50 ng/mL for nicotine, cotinine and trans-3-hydroxycotinine and 25 ng/mL for nicotine-N'-oxide, cotinine-N-oxide, anabasine, anatabine and nornicotine) revealed a prevalence of 15.3% amongst athletes. While this number may appear lower than the worldwide smoking prevalence of around 25%, focusing the study on selected sports highlighted more alarming findings. Indeed, active nicotine consumption in ice hockey, skiing, biathlon, bobsleigh, skating, football, basketball, volleyball, rugby, American football, wrestling and gymnastics was found to range between 19.0 and 55.6%. Therefore, considering the adverse effects of smoking on the respiratory tract and numerous health threats detrimental to sport practice at top level, likelihood of smokeless tobacco consumption for performance enhancement is greatly supported.

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BACKGROUND: Chest pain is a common complaint in primary care, with coronary heart disease (CHD) being the most concerning of many potential causes. Systematic reviews on the sensitivity and specificity of symptoms and signs summarize the evidence about which of them are most useful in making a diagnosis. Previous meta-analyses are dominated by studies of patients referred to specialists. Moreover, as the analysis is typically based on study-level data, the statistical analyses in these reviews are limited while meta-analyses based on individual patient data can provide additional information. Our patient-level meta-analysis has three unique aims. First, we strive to determine the diagnostic accuracy of symptoms and signs for myocardial ischemia in primary care. Second, we investigate associations between study- or patient-level characteristics and measures of diagnostic accuracy. Third, we aim to validate existing clinical prediction rules for diagnosing myocardial ischemia in primary care. This article describes the methods of our study and six prospective studies of primary care patients with chest pain. Later articles will describe the main results. METHODS/DESIGN: We will conduct a systematic review and IPD meta-analysis of studies evaluating the diagnostic accuracy of symptoms and signs for diagnosing coronary heart disease in primary care. We will perform bivariate analyses to determine the sensitivity, specificity and likelihood ratios of individual symptoms and signs and multivariate analyses to explore the diagnostic value of an optimal combination of all symptoms and signs based on all data of all studies. We will validate existing clinical prediction rules from each of the included studies by calculating measures of diagnostic accuracy separately by study. DISCUSSION: Our study will face several methodological challenges. First, the number of studies will be limited. Second, the investigators of original studies defined some outcomes and predictors differently. Third, the studies did not collect the same standard clinical data set. Fourth, missing data, varying from partly missing to fully missing, will have to be dealt with.Despite these limitations, we aim to summarize the available evidence regarding the diagnostic accuracy of symptoms and signs for diagnosing CHD in patients presenting with chest pain in primary care. REVIEW REGISTRATION: Centre for Reviews and Dissemination (University of York): CRD42011001170.

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In this review, we discuss the pharmacological and clinical properties of irbesartan, a noncompetitive angiotensin II receptor type 1 antagonist, successfully used for more than a decade in the treatment of essential hypertension. Irbesartan exerts its antihypertensive effect through an inhibitory effect on the pressure response to angiotensin II. Irbesartan 150-300 mg once daily confers a lasting effect over 24 hours, and its antihypertensive efficacy is further enhanced by the coadministration of hydrochlorothiazide. Additionally and partially beyond its blood pressure-lowering effect, irbesartan reduces left ventricular hypertrophy, favors right atrial remodeling in atrial fibrillation, and increases the likelihood of maintenance of sinus rhythm after cardioversion in atrial fibrillation. In addition, the renoprotective effects of irbesartan are well documented in the early and later stages of renal disease in type 2 diabetics. Furthermore, both the therapeutic effectiveness and the placebo-like side effect profile contribute to a high adherence rate to the drug. Currently, irbesartan in monotherapy or combination therapy with hydrochlorothiazide represent a rationale pharmacologic approach for arterial hypertension and early-stage and late-stage diabetic nephropathy in hypertensive type II diabetics.

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Bacteria released in large numbers for biocontrol or bioremediation purposes might exchange genes with other microorganisms. Two model systems were designed to investigate the likelihood of such an exchange and some factors which govern the conjugative exchange of chromosomal genes between root-colonizing pseudomonads in the rhizosphere of wheat. The first model consisted of the biocontrol strain CHA0 of Pseudomonas fluorescens and transposon-facilitated recombination (Tfr). A conjugative IncP plasmid loaded with transposon Tn5, in a CHA0 derivative carrying a chromosomal Tn5 insertion, promoted chromosome transfer to auxotrophic CHA0 recipients in vitro. A chromosomal marker (pro) was transferred at a frequency of about 10(sup-6) per donor on wheat roots under gnotobiotic conditions, provided that the Tfr donor and recipient populations each contained 10(sup6) to 10(sup7) CFU per g of root. In contrast, no conjugative gene transfer was detected in soil, illustrating that the root surface stimulates conjugation. The second model system was based on the genetically well-characterized strain PAO of Pseudomonas aeruginosa and the chromosome mobilizing IncP plasmid R68.45. Although originally isolated from a human wound, strain PAO1 was found to be an excellent root colonizer, even under natural, nonsterile conditions. Matings between an auxotrophic R68.45 donor and auxotrophic recipients produced prototrophic chromosomal recombinants at 10(sup-4) to 10(sup-5) per donor on wheat roots in artificial soil under gnotobiotic conditions and at about 10(sup-6) per donor on wheat roots in natural, nonsterile soil microcosms after 2 weeks of incubation. The frequencies of chromosomal recombinants were as high as or higher than the frequencies of R68.45 transconjugants, reflecting mainly the selective growth advantage of the prototrophic recombinants over the auxotrophic parental strains in the rhizosphere. Although under field conditions the formation of chromosomal recombinants is expected to be reduced by several factors, we conclude that chromosomal genes, whether present naturally or introduced by genetic modification, may be transmissible between rhizosphere bacteria.

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OBJECTIVES: To determine the relationship between infections and functional impairment in nursing home residents. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study (follow-up period, 6 months). SETTING: Thirty-nine nursing homes in western Switzerland. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 1,324 residents aged 65 and older (mean age 85.7; 76.6% female) who agreed to participate, or their proxies, by oral informed consent. MEASUREMENTS: Functional status measured every 3 months. Two different outcomes were used: (a) functional decline defined as death or decreased function at follow-up and (b) functional status score using a standardized measure. RESULTS: At the end of follow-up, mortality was 14.6%, not different for those with and without infection (16.2% vs 13.1%, P=.11). During both 3-month periods, subjects with infection had higher odds of functional decline, even after adjustment for baseline characteristics and occurrence of a new illness (adjusted odds ratio (AOR)=1.6, 95% confidence interval (CI)=1.2-2.2, P=.002, and AOR=1.5, 95% CI=1.1-2.0, P=.008, respectively). The odds of decline increased in a stepwise fashion in patients with zero, one, and two or more infections. The analyses predicting functional status score (restricted to subjects who survived) gave similar results. A survival analysis predicting time to first infection confirmed a stepwise greater likelihood of infection in subjects with moderate and severe impairment at baseline than in subjects with no or mild functional impairment at baseline. CONCLUSION: Infections appear to be both a cause and a consequence of functional impairment in nursing home residents. Further studies should be undertaken to investigate whether effective infection control programs can also contribute to preventing functional decline, an important component of these residents' quality of life.

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Diagnostic information on children is typically elicited from both children and their parents. The aims of the present paper were to: (1) compare prevalence estimates according to maternal reports, paternal reports and direct interviews of children [major depressive disorder (MDD), anxiety and attention-deficit and disruptive behavioural disorders]; (2) assess mother-child, father-child and inter-parental agreement for these disorders; (3) determine the association between several child, parent and familial characteristics and the degree of diagnostic agreement or the likelihood of parental reporting; (4) determine the predictive validity of diagnostic information provided by parents and children. Analyses were based on 235 mother-offspring, 189 father-offspring and 128 mother-father pairs. Diagnostic assessment included the Kiddie-schedule for Affective Disorders and Schizophrenia (K-SADS) (offspring) and the Diagnostic Interview for Genetic Studies (DIGS) (parents and offspring at follow-up) interviews. Parental reports were collected using the Family History - Research Diagnostic Criteria (FH-RDC). Analyses revealed: (1) prevalence estimates for internalizing disorders were generally lower according to parental information than according to the K-SADS; (2) mother-child and father-child agreement was poor and within similar ranges; (3) parents with a history of MDD or attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) reported these disorders in their children more frequently; (4) in a sub-sample followed-up into adulthood, diagnoses of MDD, separation anxiety and conduct disorder at baseline concurred with the corresponding lifetime diagnosis at age 19 according to the child rather than according to the parents. In conclusion, our findings support large discrepancies of diagnostic information provided by parents and children with generally lower reporting of internalizing disorders by parents, and differential reporting of depression and ADHD by parental disease status. Follow-up data also supports the validity of information provided by adolescent offspring.

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AIM: To study the prevalence of psychoactive substance use disorder (PSUD) among suicidal adolescents, psychoactive substance intoxication at the moment of the attempt, and the association between PSUD at baseline and either occurrence of suicide or repetition of suicide attempt(s). METHODS: 186 adolescents aged 16 to 21 y hospitalized for suicide attempt or overwhelming suicidal ideation were included (T0); 148 of them were traced again for evaluations after 6 mo (T1) and/or 18 mo (T2). DSM-IV diagnoses were assessed each time using the Mini International Neuropsychiatric Interview. RESULTS: At T0, 39.2% of the subjects were found to have a PSUD. Among them, a significantly higher proportion was intoxicated at the time of the attempt than those without PSUD (44.3% vs 25.4%). Among the 148 adolescents who could be traced at either T1 or T2, two died from suicide and 30 repeated suicide attempts once or more times. A marginally significant association was found between death by suicide/repetition of suicide attempt and alcohol abuse/dependence at baseline (OR=3.3, 95% CI 0.7-15.0; OR=2.6, 95% CI 0.7-9.3). More than one suicide attempt before admission to hospital at T0 (OR=3.2, 95% CI 1.1-10.0) and age over 19 y at T0 (OR=3.2, 95% CI 1.1-9.2) were independently associated with the likelihood of death by suicide or repetition of suicide attempt. CONCLUSION: Among adolescents hospitalized for suicide attempt or overwhelming suicidal ideation, the risk of death or repetition of attempt is high and is associated with previous suicide attempts--especially among older adolescents--and also marginally associated with PSUD; these adolescents should be carefully evaluated for such risks and followed up once discharged from the hospital.

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BACKGROUND: In vitro aggregating brain cell cultures containing all types of brain cells have been shown to be useful for neurotoxicological investigations. The cultures are used for the detection of nervous system-specific effects of compounds by measuring multiple endpoints, including changes in enzyme activities. Concentration-dependent neurotoxicity is determined at several time points. METHODS: A Markov model was set up to describe the dynamics of brain cell populations exposed to potentially neurotoxic compounds. Brain cells were assumed to be either in a healthy or stressed state, with only stressed cells being susceptible to cell death. Cells may have switched between these states or died with concentration-dependent transition rates. Since cell numbers were not directly measurable, intracellular lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) activity was used as a surrogate. Assuming that changes in cell numbers are proportional to changes in intracellular LDH activity, stochastic enzyme activity models were derived. Maximum likelihood and least squares regression techniques were applied for estimation of the transition rates. Likelihood ratio tests were performed to test hypotheses about the transition rates. Simulation studies were used to investigate the performance of the transition rate estimators and to analyze the error rates of the likelihood ratio tests. The stochastic time-concentration activity model was applied to intracellular LDH activity measurements after 7 and 14 days of continuous exposure to propofol. The model describes transitions from healthy to stressed cells and from stressed cells to death. RESULTS: The model predicted that propofol would affect stressed cells more than healthy cells. Increasing propofol concentration from 10 to 100 μM reduced the mean waiting time for transition to the stressed state by 50%, from 14 to 7 days, whereas the mean duration to cellular death reduced more dramatically from 2.7 days to 6.5 hours. CONCLUSION: The proposed stochastic modeling approach can be used to discriminate between different biological hypotheses regarding the effect of a compound on the transition rates. The effects of different compounds on the transition rate estimates can be quantitatively compared. Data can be extrapolated at late measurement time points to investigate whether costs and time-consuming long-term experiments could possibly be eliminated.

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OBJECTIVE: A study was undertaken to develop a score for assessing risk for symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage (sICH) in ischemic stroke patients treated with intravenous (IV) thrombolysis. METHODS: The derivation cohort comprised 974 ischemic stroke patients treated (1995-2008) with IV thrombolysis at the Helsinki University Central Hospital. The predictive value of parameters associated with sICH (European Cooperative Acute Stroke Study II) was evaluated, and we developed our score according to the magnitude of logistic regression coefficients. We calculated absolute risks and likelihood ratios of sICH per increasing score points. The score was validated in 828 patients from 3 Swiss cohorts (Lausanne, Basel, and Geneva). Performance of the score was tested with area under a receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC). RESULTS: Our SEDAN score (0 to 6 points) comprises baseline blood Sugar (glucose; 8.1-12.0 mmol/l [145-216 mg/dl] = 1; >12.0 mmol/l [>216 mg/dl] = 2), Early infarct signs (yes = 1) and (hyper)Dense cerebral artery sign (yes = 1) on admission computed tomography scan, Age (>75 years = 1), and NIH Stroke Scale on admission (≥10 = 1). Absolute risk for sICH in the derivation cohort was: 1.4%, 2.9%, 8.5%, 12.2%, 21.7%, and 33.3% for 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 score points, respectively. In the validation cohort, absolute risks were similar (1.0%, 3.5%, 5.1%, 9.2%, 16.9%, and 27.8%, respectively). AUC-ROC was 0.77 (0.71-0.83; p < 0.001). INTERPRETATION: Our SEDAN score reliably assessed risk for sICH in IV thrombolysis-treated patients with anterior- and posterior circulation ischemic stroke, and it can support clinical decision making in high-risk patients. External validation of the score supports its generalization.

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Until recently, cricotracheal resection (CTR) has not been commonly accepted as a treatment modality for severe subglottic stenosis in the pediatric age group. The reasons have included the risk of a possible dehiscence at the site of the anastomosis, the likelihood of injury to the recurrent laryngeal nerves, and the interference with normal growth of the larynx. Thirty-eight infants and children with a severe subglottic stenosis underwent a partial cricoid resection with primary thyrotracheal anastomosis. Thirty-three patients were tracheotomy-dependent at the time of surgery and 34 were referred cases; 27 were classified as grade III, and 10 as grade IV stenoses according to new Cotton's classification. Nineteen patients were younger than 3 years of age at the time of surgery. The tracheotomy was resected during the surgical procedure in 21 cases. Decannulation was achieved in 36/38 cases after an open procedure. There is one complete restenosis and one good result awaiting decannulation after further surgery for a Pierre Robin syndrome. The authors experienced no lesion of the recurrent laryngeal nerves and no fatality. Thirty-one patients show no exertional dyspnea, three a slight stridor while exercising, and two patients are not decannulated. The postoperative follow-up in longer than 10 years in eight cases. All patients show a normal growth of the larynx and trachea. Compared to laryngotracheoplasties, CTR gives better results for severe subglottic stenosis. This operation should become the treatment of choice for severe (grade III and IV) subglottic stenosis in infants and children.

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The conflict between siblings over how parental resources are divided has promoted the evolution of specific behaviour to outcompete each other. Young animals look out for parents' arrival in order to start begging as quickly as possible, since a rapid begging reaction increases the likelihood of being fed before nestmates. If the young can physically intercept the parents, selection might be operating on the offspring ability to monitor parent arrival (vigilance towards parents) and any sudden modifications in siblings' behaviour (vigilance towards siblings). To investigate the adaptive value of nestling vigilance in the context of family interactions, we recorded which direction barn owl Tyto alba siblings were facing in 89 two-chick broods before the first parental feeding visit of the night. Nestlings were more vigilant towards nest entrance than expected by chance suggesting that vigilance towards parents is an important component of sibling competition. When positioned near the nest-box entrance where parents predictably deliver food, the younger individual (i.e. junior) looked more towards the entrance than its older sibling. Thus, when the likelihood of obtaining a food item is relatively high, juniors are more vigilant than seniors to detect the incoming parent. When positioned at the back of the nest, the senior looked relatively more frequently towards its sibling than the junior did in the same situation. This suggests that when the likelihood of obtaining a food item is relatively low, seniors are more vigilant than juniors to observe their sibling. Because vigilance was not related to hunger level and prey obtaining, we propose the hypothesis that vigilance towards parents and siblings only indirectly influences the outcome of sibling competition.

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BACKGROUND: We estimated the heritability of three measures of glomerular filtration rate (GFR) in hypertensive families of African descent in the Seychelles (Indian Ocean). METHODS: Families with at least two hypertensive siblings and an average of two normotensive siblings were identified through a national hypertension register. Using the ASSOC program in SAGE (Statistical Analysis in Genetic Epidemiology), the age- and gender-adjusted narrow sense heritability of GFR was estimated by maximum likelihood assuming multivariate normality after power transformation. ASSOC can calculate the additive polygenic component of the variance of a trait from pedigree data in the presence of other familial correlations. The effects of body mass index (BMI), blood pressure, natriuresis, along with sodium to potassium ratio in urine and diabetes, were also tested as covariates. RESULTS: Inulin clearance, 24-hour creatinine clearance, and GFR based on the Cockcroft-Gault formula were available for 348 persons from 66 pedigrees. The age- and gender-adjusted correlations (+/- SE) were 0.51 (+/- 0.04) between inulin clearance and creatinine clearance, 0.53 (+/- 0.04) between inulin clearance and Cockcroft-Gault formula and 0.66 (+/- 0.03) between creatinine clearance and Cockcroft-Gault formula. The age- and gender-adjusted heritabilities (+/- SE) of GFR were 0.41 (+/- 0.10) for inulin clearance, 0.52 (+/- 0.13) for creatinine clearance, and 0.82 (+/- 0.09) for Cockcroft-Gault formula. Adjustment for BMI slightly lowered the correlations and heritabilities for all measurements whereas adjustment for blood pressure had virtually no effect. CONCLUSION: The significant heritability estimates of GFR in our sample of families of African descent confirm the familial aggregation of this trait and justify further analyses aimed at discovering genetic determinants of GFR.

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BACKGROUND: Specialized pediatric cancer centers (PCCs) are thought to be essential to obtain state-of-the-art care for children and adolescents. We determined the proportion of childhood cancer patients not treated in a PCC, and described their characteristics and place of treatment. PROCEDURE: The Swiss Childhood Cancer Registry (SCCR) registers all children treated in Swiss PCCs. The regional cancer registries (covering 14/26 cantons) register all cancer patients of a region. The children of the SCCR with data from 7 regions (11 cantons) were compared, using specialized software for record linkage. All children <16 years of age at diagnosis with primary malignant tumors, diagnosed between 1990 and 2004, and living in one of these regions were included in the analysis. RESULTS: 22.1% (238/1,077) of patients recorded in regional registries were not registered in the SCCR. Of these, 15.7% (169/1,077) had never been in a PCC while 6.4% (69/1,077) had been in a PCC but were not registered in the SCCR, due to incomplete data flow. In all diagnostic groups and in all age groups, a certain proportion of children was treated outside a PCC, but this proportion was largest in children suffering from malignant bone tumors/soft tissue sarcomas and from malignant epithelial neoplasms, and in older children. The proportion of patients treated in a PCC increased over the study period (P < 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: One in six childhood cancer patients in Switzerland was not treated in a PCC. Whether these patients have different treatment outcomes remained unclear.

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This study was designed to assess sex-related differences in the selection of an appropriate strategy when facing novelty. A simple visuo-spatial task was used to investigate exploratory behavior as a specific response to novelty. The exploration task was followed by a visual discrimination task, and the responses were analyzed using signal detection theory. During exploration women selected a local searching strategy in which the metric distance between what is already known and what is unknown was reduced, whereas men adopted a global strategy based on an approximately uniform distribution of choices. Women's exploratory behavior gives rise to a notion of a secure base warranting a sense of safety while men's behavior does not appear to be influenced by risk. This sex-related difference was interpreted as a difference in beliefs concerning the likelihood of uncertain events influencing risk evaluation. Keywords: exploration, spontaneous strategies, sex differences, decision-making.

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PURPOSE: To examine the associations between substance use and other health-risk behaviors and quality of life (QOL) among young men. METHODS: The analytical sample consisted of 5,306 young Swiss men who participated in the Cohort Study on Substance Use Risk Factors. Associations between seven distinct self-reported health-risk behaviors (risky single-occasion drinking; volume drinking; cigarette smoking; cannabis use; use of any other illicit drugs; sexual intercourse without a condom; low physical activity) were assessed via chi-square analysis. Logistic regression analyses were conducted to study the associations between each particular health-risk behavior and either physical or mental QOL (assessed with the SF-12v2) while adjusting for socio-demographic variables and the presence of all other health-risk behaviors. RESULTS: Most health-risk behaviors co-occurred. However, low physical activity was not or negatively related to other health-risk behaviors. Almost all health-risk behaviors were associated with a greater likelihood of compromised QOL. However, sexual intercourse without a condom (not associated with both physical and mental QOL) and frequent risky single-occasion drinking (not related to mental QOL after adjusting for the presence of other health-risk behaviors; positively associated with physical QOL) differed from this pattern. CONCLUSIONS: Health-risk behaviors are mostly associated with compromised QOL. However, sexual intercourse without a condom and frequent risky single-occasion drinking differ from this pattern and are therefore possibly particularly difficult to change relative to other health-risk behaviors.