Modelling short-term ultraviolet exposure as an alternative to individual dosimetry

Background: Excessive exposure to solar Ultra-Violet (UV) light is the main cause of most skin cancers in humans. Factors such as the increase of solar irradiation at ground level (anthropic pollution), the rise in standard of living (vacation in sunny areas), and (mostly) the development of outdoor activities have contributed to increase exposure. Thus, unsurprisingly, incidence of skin cancers has increased over the last decades more than that of any other cancer. Melanoma is the most lethal cutaneous cancer, while cutaneous carcinomas are the most common cancer type worldwide. UV exposure depends on environmental as well as individual factors related to activity. The influence of individual factors on exposure among building workers was investigated in a previous study. Posture and orientation were found to account for at least 38% of the total variance of relative individual exposure. A high variance of short-term exposure was observed between different body locations, indicating the occurrence of intense, subacute exposures. It was also found that effective short-term exposure ranged between 0 and 200% of ambient irradiation, suggesting that ambient irradiation is a poor predictor of effective exposure. Various dosimetric techniques enable to assess individual effective exposure, but dosimetric measurements remain tedious and tend to be situation-specific. As a matter of facts, individual factors (exposure time, body posture and orientation in the sun) often limit the extrapolation of exposure results to similar activities conducted in other conditions. Objective: The research presented in this paper aims at developing and validating a predictive tool of effective individual exposure to solar UV. Methods: Existing computer graphic techniques (3D rendering) were adapted to reflect solar exposure conditions and calculate short-term anatomical doses. A numerical model, represented as a 3D triangular mesh, is used to represent the exposed body. The amount of solar energy received by each "triangle is calculated, taking into account irradiation intensity, incidence angle and possible shadowing from other body parts. The model take into account the three components of the solar irradiation (direct, diffuse and albedo) as well as the orientation and posture of the body. Field measurements were carried out using a forensic mannequin at the Payerne MeteoSwiss station. Short-term dosimetric measurements were performed in 7 anatomical locations for 5 body postures. Field results were compared to the model prediction obtained from the numerical model. Results: The best match between prediction and measurements was obtained for upper body parts such as shoulders (Ratio Modelled/Measured; Mean = 1.21, SD = 0.34) and neck (Mean = 0.81, SD = 0.32). Small curved body parts such as forehead (Mean = 6.48, SD = 9.61) exhibited a lower matching. The prediction is less accurate for complex postures such as kneeling (Mean = 4.13, SD = 8.38) compared to standing up (Mean = 0.85, SD = 0.48). The values obtained from the dosimeters and the ones computed from the model are globally consistent. Conclusion: Although further development and validation are required, these results suggest that effective exposure could be predicted for a given activity (work or leisure) in various ambient irradiation conditions. Using a generic modelling approach is of high interest in terms of implementation costs as well as predictive and retrospective capabilities.

Combining palaeodistribution modelling and phylogeographical approaches for identifying glacial refugia in Alpine Primula

Aim We investigated the late Quaternary history of two closely related and partly sympatric species of Primula from the south-western European Alps, P. latifolia Lapeyr. and P. marginata Curtis, by combining phylogeographical and palaeodistribution modelling approaches. In particular, we were interested in whether the two approaches were congruent and identified the same glacial refugia. Location South-western European Alps. Methods For the phylogeographical analysis we included 353 individuals from 28 populations of P. marginata and 172 individuals from 15 populations of P. latifolia and used amplified fragment length polymorphisms (AFLPs). For palaeodistribution modelling, species distribution models (SDMs) were based on extant species occurrences and then projected to climate models (CCSM, MIROC) of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), approximately 21 ka. Results The locations of the modelled LGM refugia were confirmed by various indices of genetic variation. The refugia of the two species were largely geographically isolated, overlapping only 6% to 11% of the species' total LGM distribution. This overlap decreased when the position of the glacial ice sheet and the differential elevational and edaphic distributions of the two species were considered. Main conclusions The combination of phylogeography and palaeodistribution modelling proved useful in locating putative glacial refugia of two alpine species of Primula. The phylogeographical data allowed us to identify those parts of the modelled LGM refugial area that were likely source areas for recolonization. The use of SDMs predicted LGM refugial areas substantially larger and geographically more divergent than could have been predicted by phylogeographical data alone

Identification and modelling of human breast cancer subtypes

Résumé Le cancer du sein est le cancer le plus commun chez les femmes et est responsable de presque 30% de tous les nouveaux cas de cancer en Europe. On estime le nombre de décès liés au cancer du sein en Europe est à plus de 130.000 par an. Ces chiffres expliquent l'impact social considérable de cette maladie. Les objectifs de cette thèse étaient: (1) d'identifier les prédispositions et les mécanismes biologiques responsables de l'établissement des sous-types spécifiques de cancer du sein; (2) les valider dans un modèle ín vivo "humain-dans-souris"; et (3) de développer des traitements spécifiques à chaque sous-type de cancer du sein identifiés. Le premier objectif a été atteint par l'intermédiaire de l'analyse des données d'expression de gènes des tumeurs, produite dans notre laboratoire. Les données obtenues par puces à ADN ont été produites à partir de 49 biopsies des tumeurs du sein provenant des patientes participant dans l'essai clinique EORTC 10994/BIG00-01. Les données étaient très riches en information et m'ont permis de valider des données précédentes des autres études d'expression des gènes dans des tumeurs du sein. De plus, cette analyse m'a permis d'identifier un nouveau sous-type biologique de cancer du sein. Dans la première partie de la thèse, je décris I identification des tumeurs apocrines du sein par l'analyse des puces à ADN et les implications potentielles de cette découverte pour les applications cliniques. Le deuxième objectif a été atteint par l'établissement d'un modèle de cancer du sein humain, basé sur des cellules épithéliales mammaires humaines primaires (HMECs) dérivées de réductions mammaires. J'ai choisi d'adapter un système de culture des cellules en suspension basé sur des mammosphères précédemment décrit et pat décidé d'exprimer des gènes en utilisant des lentivirus. Dans la deuxième partie de ma thèse je décris l'établissement d'un système de culture cellulaire qui permet la transformation quantitative des HMECs. Par la suite, j'ai établi un modèle de xénogreffe dans les souris immunodéficientes NOD/SCID, qui permet de modéliser la maladie humaine chez la souris. Dans la troisième partie de ma thèse je décris et je discute les résultats que j'ai obtenus en établissant un modèle estrogène-dépendant de cancer du sein par transformation quantitative des HMECs avec des gènes définis, identifiés par analyse de données d'expression des gènes dans le cancer du sein. Les cellules transformées dans notre modèle étaient estrogène-dépendantes pour la croissance, diploïdes et génétiquement normales même après la culture cellulaire in vitro prolongée. Les cellules formaient des tumeurs dans notre modèle de xénogreffe et constituaient des métastases péritonéales disséminées et du foie. Afin d'atteindre le troisième objectif de ma thèse, j'ai défini et examiné des stratégies de traitement qui permettent réduire les tumeurs et les métastases. J'ai produit un modèle de cancer du sein génétiquement défini et positif pour le récepteur de l'estrogène qui permet de modéliser le cancer du sein estrogène-dépendant humain chez la souris. Ce modèle permet l'étude des mécanismes impliqués dans la formation des tumeurs et des métastases. Abstract Breast cancer is the most common cancer in women and accounts for nearly 30% of all new cancer cases in Europe. The number of deaths from breast cancer in Europe is estimated to be over 130,000 each year, implying the social impact of the disease. The goals of this thesis were first, to identify biological features and mechanisms --responsible for the establishment of specific breast cancer subtypes, second to validate them in a human-in-mouse in vivo model and third to develop specific treatments for identified breast cancer subtypes. The first objective was achieved via the analysis of tumour gene expression data produced in our lab. The microarray data were generated from 49 breast tumour biopsies that were collected from patients enrolled in the clinical trial EORTC 10994/BIG00-01. The data set was very rich in information and allowed me to validate data of previous breast cancer gene expression studies and to identify biological features of a novel breast cancer subtype. In the first part of the thesis I focus on the identification of molecular apacrine breast tumours by microarray analysis and the potential imptìcation of this finding for the clinics. The second objective was attained by the production of a human breast cancer model system based on primary human mammary epithelial cells {HMECs) derived from reduction mammoplasties. I have chosen to adopt a previously described suspension culture system based on mammospheres and expressed selected target genes using lentiviral expression constructs. In the second part of my thesis I mainly focus on the establishment of a cell culture system allowing for quantitative transformation of HMECs. I then established a xenograft model in immunodeficient NOD/SCID mice, allowing to model human disease in a mouse. In the third part of my thesis I describe and discuss the results that I obtained while establishing an oestrogen-dependent model of breast cancer by quantitative transformation of HMECs with defined genes identified after breast cancer gene expression data analysis. The transformed cells in our model are oestrogen-dependent for growth; remain diploid and genetically normal even after prolonged cell culture in vitro. The cells farm tumours and form disseminated peritoneal and liver metastases in our xenograft model. Along the lines of the third objective of my thesis I defined and tested treatment schemes allowing reducing tumours and metastases. I have generated a genetically defined model of oestrogen receptor alpha positive human breast cancer that allows to model human oestrogen-dependent breast cancer in a mouse and enables the study of mechanisms involved in tumorigenesis and metastasis.

Alzheimer's disease: the amyloid hypothesis and the Inverse Warburg effect.

Epidemiological and biochemical studies show that the sporadic forms of Alzheimer's disease (AD) are characterized by the following hallmarks: (a) An exponential increase with age; (b) Selective neuronal vulnerability; (c) Inverse cancer comorbidity. The present article appeals to these hallmarks to evaluate and contrast two competing models of AD: the amyloid hypothesis (a neuron-centric mechanism) and the Inverse Warburg hypothesis (a neuron-astrocytic mechanism). We show that these three hallmarks of AD conflict with the amyloid hypothesis, but are consistent with the Inverse Warburg hypothesis, a bioenergetic model which postulates that AD is the result of a cascade of three events-mitochondrial dysregulation, metabolic reprogramming (the Inverse Warburg effect), and natural selection. We also provide an explanation for the failures of the clinical trials based on amyloid immunization, and we propose a new class of therapeutic strategies consistent with the neuroenergetic selection model.

The role of biotic interactions in shaping distributions and realised assemblages of species: implications for species distribution modelling.

Predicting which species will occur together in the future, and where, remains one of the greatest challenges in ecology, and requires a sound understanding of how the abiotic and biotic environments interact with dispersal processes and history across scales. Biotic interactions and their dynamics influence species' relationships to climate, and this also has important implications for predicting future distributions of species. It is already well accepted that biotic interactions shape species' spatial distributions at local spatial extents, but the role of these interactions beyond local extents (e.g. 10 km(2) to global extents) are usually dismissed as unimportant. In this review we consolidate evidence for how biotic interactions shape species distributions beyond local extents and review methods for integrating biotic interactions into species distribution modelling tools. Drawing upon evidence from contemporary and palaeoecological studies of individual species ranges, functional groups, and species richness patterns, we show that biotic interactions have clearly left their mark on species distributions and realised assemblages of species across all spatial extents. We demonstrate this with examples from within and across trophic groups. A range of species distribution modelling tools is available to quantify species environmental relationships and predict species occurrence, such as: (i) integrating pairwise dependencies, (ii) using integrative predictors, and (iii) hybridising species distribution models (SDMs) with dynamic models. These methods have typically only been applied to interacting pairs of species at a single time, require a priori ecological knowledge about which species interact, and due to data paucity must assume that biotic interactions are constant in space and time. To better inform the future development of these models across spatial scales, we call for accelerated collection of spatially and temporally explicit species data. Ideally, these data should be sampled to reflect variation in the underlying environment across large spatial extents, and at fine spatial resolution. Simplified ecosystems where there are relatively few interacting species and sometimes a wealth of existing ecosystem monitoring data (e.g. arctic, alpine or island habitats) offer settings where the development of modelling tools that account for biotic interactions may be less difficult than elsewhere.

An evaluation of new parsimony-based versus parametric inference methods in biogeography: a case study using the globally distributed plant family Sapindaceae

Aim  Recently developed parametric methods in historical biogeography allow researchers to integrate temporal and palaeogeographical information into the reconstruction of biogeographical scenarios, thus overcoming a known bias of parsimony-based approaches. Here, we compare a parametric method, dispersal-extinction-cladogenesis (DEC), against a parsimony-based method, dispersal-vicariance analysis (DIVA), which does not incorporate branch lengths but accounts for phylogenetic uncertainty through a Bayesian empirical approach (Bayes-DIVA). We analyse the benefits and limitations of each method using the cosmopolitan plant family Sapindaceae as a case study.Location  World-wide.Methods  Phylogenetic relationships were estimated by Bayesian inference on a large dataset representing generic diversity within Sapindaceae. Lineage divergence times were estimated by penalized likelihood over a sample of trees from the posterior distribution of the phylogeny to account for dating uncertainty in biogeographical reconstructions. We compared biogeographical scenarios between Bayes-DIVA and two different DEC models: one with no geological constraints and another that employed a stratified palaeogeographical model in which dispersal rates were scaled according to area connectivity across four time slices, reflecting the changing continental configuration over the last 110 million years.Results  Despite differences in the underlying biogeographical model, Bayes-DIVA and DEC inferred similar biogeographical scenarios. The main differences were: (1) in the timing of dispersal events - which in Bayes-DIVA sometimes conflicts with palaeogeographical information, and (2) in the lower frequency of terminal dispersal events inferred by DEC. Uncertainty in divergence time estimations influenced both the inference of ancestral ranges and the decisiveness with which an area can be assigned to a node.Main conclusions  By considering lineage divergence times, the DEC method gives more accurate reconstructions that are in agreement with palaeogeographical evidence. In contrast, Bayes-DIVA showed the highest decisiveness in unequivocally reconstructing ancestral ranges, probably reflecting its ability to integrate phylogenetic uncertainty. Care should be taken in defining the palaeogeographical model in DEC because of the possibility of overestimating the frequency of extinction events, or of inferring ancestral ranges that are outside the extant species ranges, owing to dispersal constraints enforced by the model. The wide-spanning spatial and temporal model proposed here could prove useful for testing large-scale biogeographical patterns in plants.

Limits on the validity of infinite length assumptions for modelling shallow landslides

The infinite slope method is widely used as the geotechnical component of geomorphic and landscape evolution models. Its assumption that shallow landslides are infinitely long (in a downslope direction) is usually considered valid for natural landslides on the basis that they are generally long relative to their depth. However, this is rarely justified, because the critical length/depth (L/H) ratio below which edge effects become important is unknown. We establish this critical L/H ratio by benchmarking infinite slope stability predictions against finite element predictions for a set of synthetic two-dimensional slopes, assuming that the difference between the predictions is due to error in the infinite slope method. We test the infinite slope method for six different L/H ratios to find the critical ratio at which its predictions fall within 5% of those from the finite element method. We repeat these tests for 5000 synthetic slopes with a range of failure plane depths, pore water pressures, friction angles, soil cohesions, soil unit weights and slope angles characteristic of natural slopes. We find that: (1) infinite slope stability predictions are consistently too conservative for small L/H ratios; (2) the predictions always converge to within 5% of the finite element benchmarks by a L/H ratio of 25 (i.e. the infinite slope assumption is reasonable for landslides 25 times longer than they are deep); but (3) they can converge at much lower ratios depending on slope properties, particularly for low cohesion soils. The implication for catchment scale stability models is that the infinite length assumption is reasonable if their grid resolution is coarse (e.g. >25?m). However, it may also be valid even at much finer grid resolutions (e.g. 1?m), because spatial organization in the predicted pore water pressure field reduces the probability of short landslides and minimizes the risk that predicted landslides will have L/H ratios less than 25. Copyright (c) 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Bioclimatic constraints to Andean cat distribution: a modelling application for rare species

AimTo identify the bioclimatic niche of the endangered Andean cat (Leopardus jacobita), one of the rarest and least known felids in the world, by developing a species distribution model.LocationSouth America, High Andes and Patagonian steppe. Peru, Bolivia, Chile, Argentina.MethodsWe used 108 Andean cat records to build the models, and 27 to test them, applying the Maxent algorithm to sets of uncorrelated bioclimatic variables from global databases, including elevation. We based our biogeographical interpretations on the examination of the predicted geographic range, the modelled response curves and latitudinal variations in climatic variables associated with the locality data.ResultsSimple bioclimatic models for Andean cats were highly predictive with only 3-4 explanatory variables. The climatic niche of the species was defined by extreme diurnal variations in temperature, cold minimum and moderate maximum temperatures, and aridity, characteristic not only of the Andean highlands but also of the Patagonian steppe. Argentina had the highest representation of suitable climates, and Chile the lowest. The most favourable conditions were centrally located and spanned across international boundaries. Discontinuities in suitable climatic conditions coincided with three biogeographical barriers associated with climatic or topographic transitions.Main conclusionsSimple bioclimatic models can produce useful predictions of suitable climatic conditions for rare species, including major biogeographical constraints. In our study case, these constraints are also known to affect the distribution of other Andean species and the genetic structure of Andean cat populations. We recommend surveys of areas with suitable climates and no Andean cat records, including the corridor connecting two core populations. The inclusion of landscape variables at finer scales, crucially the distribution of Andean cat prey, would contribute to refine our predictions for conservation applications.

Myocardial flow reserve by Rb-82 cardiac PET improves the selection of patients eligible for invasive coronary angiography

Aim: We asked whether myocardial flow reserve (MFR) by Rb-82 cardiac PET improve the selection of patients eligible for invasive coronary angiography (ICA). Material and Methods: We enrolled 26 consecutive patients with suspected or known coronary artery disease who performed dynamic Rb-82 PET/CT and (ICA) within 60 days; 4 patients who underwent revascularization or had any cardiovascular events between PET and ICA were excluded. Myocardial blood flow at rest (rMBF), at stress with adenosine (sMBF) and myocardial flow reserve (MFR=sMBF/rMBF) were estimated using the 1-compartment Lortie model (FlowQuant) for each coronary arteries territories. Stenosis severity was assessed using computer-based automated edge detection (QCA). MFR was divided in 3 groups: G1:MFR<1.5, G2:1.5≤MFR<2 and G3:2≤MFR. Stenosis severity was graded as non-significant (<50% or FFR ≥0.8), intermediate (50%≤stenosis<70%) and severe (≥70%). Correlation between MFR and percentage of stenosis were assessed using a non-parametric Spearman test. Results: In G1 (44 vessels), 17 vessels (39%) had a severe stenosis, 11 (25%) an intermediate one, and 16 (36%) no significant stenosis. In G2 (13 vessels), 2 (15%) vessels presented a severe stenosis, 7 (54%) an intermediate one, and 4 (31%) no significant stenosis. In G3 (9 vessels), 0 vessel presented a severe stenosis, 1 (11%) an intermediate one, and 8 (89%) no significant stenosis. Of note, among 11 patients with 3-vessel low MFR<1.5 (G1), 9/11 (82%) had at least one severe stenosis and 2/11 (18%) had at least one intermediate stenosis. There was a significant inverse correlation between stenosis severity and MFR among all 66 territories analyzed (rho= -0.38, p=0.002). Conclusion: Patients with MFR>2 could avoid ICA. Low MFR (G1, G2) on a vessel-based analysis seems to be a poor predictor of severe stenosis severity. Patients with 3-vessel low MFR would benefit from ICA as they are likely to present a significant stenosis in at least one vessel.

Modelling the effect of minor orthopaedic day surgery on patient mood at the early post-operative period: a prospective population-based cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: The effect of minor orthopaedic day surgery (MiODS) on patient's mood. METHODS: A prospective population-based cohort study of 148 consecutive patients with age above 18 and less than 65, an American Society of Anaesthesiology (ASA) score of 1, and the requirement of general anaesthesia (GA) were included. The Medical Outcomes Study - Short Form 36 (SF-36), Beck Anxiety Inventory (BAI) and Beck Depression Inventory (BDI) were used pre- and post-operatively. RESULTS: The mean physical component score of SF-36 before surgery was 45.3 (SD=+/-10.1) and 8 weeks following surgery was 44.9 (SD=+/-11.04) [n=148, p=0.51, 95% CI=(-1.03 to 1.52)]. For the measurement of the changes in mood using BDI, BAI and SF-36, latent construct modelling was employed to increase validity. The covariance between mood pre- and post-operatively (cov=69.44) corresponded to a correlation coefficient, r=0.88 indicating that patients suffering a greater number of mood symptoms before surgery continue to have a greater number of symptoms following surgery. When the latent mood constructs were permitted to have different means the model fitted well with chi(2) (df=1)=0.86 for which p=0.77, thus the null hypothesis that MiODS has no effect on patient mood was rejected. CONCLUSIONS: MiODS affects patient mood which deteriorates at 8 weeks post-operatively regardless of the pre-operative patient mood state. More importantly patients suffering a greater number of mood symptoms before MiODS continue to have a greater number of symptoms following surgery.

Inverse association between circulating vitamin D and mortality-dependent on sex and cause of death?

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: In various populations, vitamin D deficiency is associated with chronic diseases and mortality. We examined the association between concentration of circulating 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D], a marker of vitamin D status, and all-cause as well as cause-specific mortality. METHODS AND RESULTS: The study included 3404 participants of the general adult Swiss population, who were recruited between November 1988 and June 1989 and followed-up until the end of 2008. Circulating 25(OH)D was measured by protein-bound assay. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to examine the association between 25(OH)D concentration and all-cause and cause-specific mortality adjusting for sex, age, season, diet, nationality, blood pressure, and smoking status. Per 10 ng/mL increase in 25(OH)D concentration, all-cause mortality decreased by 20% (HR = 0.83; 95% CI 0.74-0.92). 25(OH)D concentration was inversely associated with cardiovascular mortality in women (HR = 0.68, 95% CI 0.46-1.00 per 10 ng/mL increase), but not in men (HR = 0.97; 95% CI 0.77-1.23). In contrast, 25(OH)D concentration was inversely associated with cancer mortality in men (HR = 0.72, 95% CI 0.57-0.91 per 10 ng/mL increase), but not in women (HR = 1.14, 95% CI 0.93-1.39). Multivariate adjustment only slightly modified the 25(OH)D-mortality association. CONCLUSION: 25(OH)D was similarly inversely related to all-cause mortality in men and women. However, we observed opposite effects in women and men with respect to cardiovascular and cancer mortality.