Quantitative genetic modeling and inference in the presence of nonignorable missing data.

Natural selection is typically exerted at some specific life stages. If natural selection takes place before a trait can be measured, using conventional models can cause wrong inference about population parameters. When the missing data process relates to the trait of interest, a valid inference requires explicit modeling of the missing process. We propose a joint modeling approach, a shared parameter model, to account for nonrandom missing data. It consists of an animal model for the phenotypic data and a logistic model for the missing process, linked by the additive genetic effects. A Bayesian approach is taken and inference is made using integrated nested Laplace approximations. From a simulation study we find that wrongly assuming that missing data are missing at random can result in severely biased estimates of additive genetic variance. Using real data from a wild population of Swiss barn owls Tyto alba, our model indicates that the missing individuals would display large black spots; and we conclude that genes affecting this trait are already under selection before it is expressed. Our model is a tool to correctly estimate the magnitude of both natural selection and additive genetic variance.

24 Hours in the Life of HIV-1 in a T Cell Line.

HIV-1 infects CD4+ T cells and completes its replication cycle in approximately 24 hours. We employed repeated measurements in a standardized cell system and rigorous mathematical modeling to characterize the emergence of the viral replication intermediates and their impact on the cellular transcriptional response with high temporal resolution. We observed 7,991 (73%) of the 10,958 expressed genes to be modulated in concordance with key steps of viral replication. Fifty-two percent of the overall variability in the host transcriptome was explained by linear regression on the viral life cycle. This profound perturbation of cellular physiology was investigated in the light of several regulatory mechanisms, including transcription factors, miRNAs, host-pathogen interaction, and proviral integration. Key features were validated in primary CD4+ T cells, and with viral constructs using alternative entry strategies. We propose a model of early massive cellular shutdown and progressive upregulation of the cellular machinery to complete the viral life cycle.

How to govern the urban hydrosocial cycle : archaeo-genealogy of hydromentalities in the Swiss urban water sector between 1850 and 1950

Switzerland appears to be a privileged place to investigate the urban political ecology of tap water because of the specificities of its political culture and organization and the relative abundance of drinking water in the country. In this paper, we refer to a Foucauldian theorization of power that is increasingly employed in the social sciences, including in human geography and political ecology. We also implement a Foucauldian methodology. In particular, we propose an archaeo-genealogical analysis of discourse to apprehend the links between urban water and the forms of governmentality in Switzerland between 1850 and 1950. Results show that two forms of governmentality, namely biopower and neoliberal governmentality, were present in the water sector in the selected period. Nonetheless, they deviate from the models proposed by Foucault, as their periodization and the classification of the technologies of power related to them prove to be much more blurred than Foucault's work, mainly based on France, might have suggested.

Evidence evaluation in fingerprint comparison and automated fingerprint identification systems: modeling between finger variability

In the context of the investigation of the use of automated fingerprint identification systems (AFIS) for the evaluation of fingerprint evidence, the current study presents investigations into the variability of scores from an AFIS system when fingermarks from a known donor are compared to fingerprints that are not from the same source. The ultimate goal is to propose a model, based on likelihood ratios, which allows the evaluation of mark-to-print comparisons. In particular, this model, through its use of AFIS technology, benefits from the possibility of using a large amount of data, as well as from an already built-in proximity measure, the AFIS score. More precisely, the numerator of the LR is obtained from scores issued from comparisons between impressions from the same source and showing the same minutia configuration. The denominator of the LR is obtained by extracting scores from comparisons of the questioned mark with a database of non-matching sources. This paper focuses solely on the assignment of the denominator of the LR. We refer to it by the generic term of between-finger variability. The issues addressed in this paper in relation to between-finger variability are the required sample size, the influence of the finger number and general pattern, as well as that of the number of minutiae included and their configuration on a given finger. Results show that reliable estimation of between-finger variability is feasible with 10,000 scores. These scores should come from the appropriate finger number/general pattern combination as defined by the mark. Furthermore, strategies of obtaining between-finger variability when these elements cannot be conclusively seen on the mark (and its position with respect to other marks for finger number) have been presented. These results immediately allow case-by-case estimation of the between-finger variability in an operational setting.

Modeling stochasticity and robustness in gene regulatory networks.

MOTIVATION: Understanding gene regulation in biological processes and modeling the robustness of underlying regulatory networks is an important problem that is currently being addressed by computational systems biologists. Lately, there has been a renewed interest in Boolean modeling techniques for gene regulatory networks (GRNs). However, due to their deterministic nature, it is often difficult to identify whether these modeling approaches are robust to the addition of stochastic noise that is widespread in gene regulatory processes. Stochasticity in Boolean models of GRNs has been addressed relatively sparingly in the past, mainly by flipping the expression of genes between different expression levels with a predefined probability. This stochasticity in nodes (SIN) model leads to over representation of noise in GRNs and hence non-correspondence with biological observations. RESULTS: In this article, we introduce the stochasticity in functions (SIF) model for simulating stochasticity in Boolean models of GRNs. By providing biological motivation behind the use of the SIF model and applying it to the T-helper and T-cell activation networks, we show that the SIF model provides more biologically robust results than the existing SIN model of stochasticity in GRNs. AVAILABILITY: Algorithms are made available under our Boolean modeling toolbox, GenYsis. The software binaries can be downloaded from http://si2.epfl.ch/ approximately garg/genysis.html.

Reliability and validity of physiological data obtained within a cycle-run transition test in age-group triathletes.

This study examined the validity and reliability of a sequential "Run-Bike-Run" test (RBR) in age-group triathletes. Eight Olympic distance (OD) specialists (age 30.0 ± 2.0 years, mass 75.6 ± 1.6 kg, run VO2max 63.8 ± 1.9 ml· kg(-1)· min(-1), cycle VO2peak 56.7 ± 5.1 ml· kg(-1)· min(-1)) performed four trials over 10 days. Trial 1 (TRVO2max) was an incremental treadmill running test. Trials 2 and 3 (RBR1 and RBR2) involved: 1) a 7-min run at 15 km· h(-1) (R1) plus a 1-min transition to 2) cycling to fatigue (2 W· kg(-1) body mass then 30 W each 3 min); 3) 10-min cycling at 3 W· kg(-1) (Bsubmax); another 1-min transition and 4) a second 7-min run at 15 km· h(-1) (R2). Trial 4 (TT) was a 30-min cycle - 20-min run time trial. No significant differences in absolute oxygen uptake (VO2), heart rate (HR), or blood lactate concentration ([BLA]) were evidenced between RBR1 and RBR2. For all measured physiological variables, the limits of agreement were similar, and the mean differences were physiologically unimportant, between trials. Low levels of test-retest error (i.e. ICC <0.8, CV<10%) were observed for most (logged) measurements. However [BLA] post R1 (ICC 0.87, CV 25.1%), [BLA] post Bsubmax (ICC 0.99, CV 16.31) and [BLA] post R2 (ICC 0.51, CV 22.9%) were least reliable. These error ranges may help coaches detect real changes in training status over time. Moreover, RBR test variables can be used to predict discipline specific and overall TT performance. Cycle VO2peak, cycle peak power output, and the change between R1 and R2 (deltaR1R2) in [BLA] were most highly related to overall TT distance (r = 0.89, p < 0. 01; r = 0.94, p < 0.02; r = 0.86, p < 0.05, respectively). The percentage of TR VO2max at 15 km· h(-1), and deltaR1R2 HR, were also related to run TT distance (r = -0.83 and 0.86, both p < 0.05).

Homology modeling and metabolism prediction of human carboxylesterase-2 using docking analyses by GriDock: a parallelized tool based on AutoDock 4.0.

Metabolic problems lead to numerous failures during clinical trials, and much effort is now devoted to developing in silico models predicting metabolic stability and metabolites. Such models are well known for cytochromes P450 and some transferases, whereas less has been done to predict the activity of human hydrolases. The present study was undertaken to develop a computational approach able to predict the hydrolysis of novel esters by human carboxylesterase hCES2. The study involved first a homology modeling of the hCES2 protein based on the model of hCES1 since the two proteins share a high degree of homology (congruent with 73%). A set of 40 known substrates of hCES2 was taken from the literature; the ligands were docked in both their neutral and ionized forms using GriDock, a parallel tool based on the AutoDock4.0 engine which can perform efficient and easy virtual screening analyses of large molecular databases exploiting multi-core architectures. Useful statistical models (e.g., r (2) = 0.91 for substrates in their unprotonated state) were calculated by correlating experimental pK(m) values with distance between the carbon atom of the substrate's ester group and the hydroxy function of Ser228. Additional parameters in the equations accounted for hydrophobic and electrostatic interactions between substrates and contributing residues. The negatively charged residues in the hCES2 cavity explained the preference of the enzyme for neutral substrates and, more generally, suggested that ligands which interact too strongly by ionic bonds (e.g., ACE inhibitors) cannot be good CES2 substrates because they are trapped in the cavity in unproductive modes and behave as inhibitors. The effects of protonation on substrate recognition and the contrasting behavior of substrates and products were finally investigated by MD simulations of some CES2 complexes.

Self-Navigation with Compressed Sensing for 2D Translational Motion Correction in Free-Breathing Coronary MRI: A Feasibility Study.

PURPOSE: Respiratory motion correction remains a challenge in coronary magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and current techniques, such as navigator gating, suffer from sub-optimal scan efficiency and ease-of-use. To overcome these limitations, an image-based self-navigation technique is proposed that uses "sub-images" and compressed sensing (CS) to obtain translational motion correction in 2D. The method was preliminarily implemented as a 2D technique and tested for feasibility for targeted coronary imaging. METHODS: During a 2D segmented radial k-space data acquisition, heavily undersampled sub-images were reconstructed from the readouts collected during each cardiac cycle. These sub-images may then be used for respiratory self-navigation. Alternatively, a CS reconstruction may be used to create these sub-images, so as to partially compensate for the heavy undersampling. Both approaches were quantitatively assessed using simulations and in vivo studies, and the resulting self-navigation strategies were then compared to conventional navigator gating. RESULTS: Sub-images reconstructed using CS showed a lower artifact level than sub-images reconstructed without CS. As a result, the final image quality was significantly better when using CS-assisted self-navigation as opposed to the non-CS approach. Moreover, while both self-navigation techniques led to a 69% scan time reduction (as compared to navigator gating), there was no significant difference in image quality between the CS-assisted self-navigation technique and conventional navigator gating, despite the significant decrease in scan time. CONCLUSIONS: CS-assisted self-navigation using 2D translational motion correction demonstrated feasibility of producing coronary MRA data with image quality comparable to that obtained with conventional navigator gating, and does so without the use of additional acquisitions or motion modeling, while still allowing for 100% scan efficiency and an improved ease-of-use. In conclusion, compressed sensing may become a critical adjunct for 2D translational motion correction in free-breathing cardiac imaging with high spatial resolution. An expansion to modern 3D approaches is now warranted.

Explaining Fiscal Balances with a Simultaneous Equation Model of Revenue and Expenditure : A Case Study of Swiss Cantons Using Panel Data

Empirical literature on the analysis of the efficiency of measures for reducing persistent government deficits has mainly focused on the direct explanation of deficit. By contrast, this paper aims at modeling government revenue and expenditure within a simultaneous framework and deriving the fiscal balance (surplus or deficit) equation as the difference between the two variables. This setting enables one to not only judge how relevant the explanatory variables are in explaining the fiscal balance but also understand their impact on revenue and/or expenditure. Our empirical results, obtained by using a panel data set on Swiss Cantons for the period 1980-2002, confirm the relevance of the approach followed here, by providing unambiguous evidence of a simultaneous relationship between revenue and expenditure. They also reveal strong dynamic components in revenue, expenditure, and fiscal balance. Among the significant determinants of public fiscal balance we not only find the usual business cycle elements, but also and more importantly institutional factors such as the number of administrative units, and the ease with which people can resort to political (direct democracy) instruments, such as public initiatives and referendum.

The cover basement contact beneath the Rawil axial depression (Western Alps) - True amplitude seismic processing, petrophysical properties, and modeling

Since 1986, several near-vertical seismic reflection profiles have been recorded in Switzerland in order to map the deep geologic structure of the Alps. One objective of this endeavour has been to determine the geometries of the autochthonous basement and of the external crystalline massifs, important elements for understanding the geodynamics of the Alpine orogeny. The PNR-20 seismic line W1, located in the Rawil depression of the western Swiss Alps, provides important information on this subject. It extends northward from the `'Penninic front'' across the Helvetic nappes to the Prealps. The crystalline massifs do not outcrop along this profile. Thus, the interpretation of `'near-basement'' reflections has to be constrained by down-dip projections of surface geology, `'true amplitude'' processing, rock physical property studies and modelling. 3-D seismic modelling has been used to evaluate the seismic response of two alternative down-dip projection models. To constrain the interpretation in the southern part of the profile, `'true amplitude'' processing has provided information on the strength of the reflections. Density and velocity measurements on core samples collected up-dip from the region of the seismic line have been used to evaluate reflection coefficients of typical lithologic boundaries in the region. The cover-basement contact itself is not a source of strong reflections, but strong reflections arise from within the overlaying metasedimentary cover sequence, allowing the geometry of the top of the basement to be determined on the basis of `'near-basement'' reflections. The front of the external crystalline massifs is shown to extend beneath the Prealps, about 6 km north of the expected position. A 2-D model whose seismic response shows reflection patterns very similar to the observed is proposed.

Variation in intensity of a parasitic mite (Spinturnix myoti) in relation to the reproductive cycle and immunocompetence of its bat host (Myotis myotis)

Given the intimate association in host-parasite systems, parasites are expected to initiate their own reproduction when vulnerable hosts become abundant and/or when adult hosts are less resistant. In this study, we examined the variation in the intensities of a blood-sucking mite (Spinturnix myoti, Acarina) with respect to the reproductive cycle and immunocompetence of its host, the greater mouse-eared bat Myotis myotis. Reproductive, pregnant females were less immunocompetent and harboured more parasites than nonreproductive females, whilst, during lactation, immunocompetence was positively associated with female body mass. There was a dramatic increase in the T-cell response of gravid females with the advancement of gestation, which coincided with a diminution of individual parasite loads and a progressive switch of parasites from adults to juveniles. The latter not only harboured greater numbers of mites than adult female bats, but they also exhibited gravid parasites in higher proportions, indicating that juvenile hosts are more attractive for parasite reproduction than adult females.

Relationship of mating systems and metabolic rate with cycle length of spermatogenesis and sperm production rate in shrews

SUMMARY : The shrews are among the most ancient of living eutherian mammals. They represent an interesting comparative model because of their extreme divergent species. The two shrew subfamilies, Soricinae and Crocidurinae are characterized by fundamental differences concerning their metabolic rates, litter size, period of gestation and different mating pattern. In this study we established and compared the sperm characteristics in four species of different genera of shrews (Sorex araneus, Neomys fodiens, Crocidura russula and Suncus murinus) in the context of the sperm competition hypothesis. The sperm competition concerns the competition between ejaculates of different males for fertilization of ova of a female within a single estrus period. As expected, a greater relative testis size (indicating the importance of polyandry) was associated with a higher number of cauda epididymal spermatozoa, higher level of circulating testosterone and a higher percentage of progressive sperm motility. In addition, we investigated if the basal metabolic rate (BMR) and relative testis size (RTS) may be correlated with the cycle length of spermatogenesis. In this purpose, we determined and compared the cycle length of spermatogenesis in six species of shrews belonging to two subfamilies: Soiricinae (Sorex araneus, Sorex coronatus, Sorex minutus, Neomys fodiens) and Crocidurinae (Crocidura russula, Sunctes murinus). Our results indicate that sperm competition and metabolic rate may act independently or together reducing cycle length of spermatogenesis and thus increase sperm production. We finally investigated this correlation across 32 mammalian species. After testing the data for phylogenetic independence, our results showed that BMR explained only 21 % of the variation, while the RTS explained 44% of the variation of the cycle length of spermatogenesis. The level of the sperm competition, indicated by RTS, is thus to our knowledge the most important factor influencing the speed of spermatogenesis in mammals. RESUME : Les musaraignes sont parmi les plus anciens mammifères vivants. Grâce à leurs extrêmes divergences, ils sont souvent utilisés comme modèles dans des études comparatives. Les deux sous-familles Soricinae et Crocidurinae sont caractérisées par des différences fondamentales, notamment en termes d'intensité du métabolisme, des stratégies de reproduction et du comportement social. Dans la première partie de cette étude, nous avons établi et comparé certaines "caractéristiques des spermatozoïdes chez quatre espèces de musaraignes appartenant à des genres différents (Sorex araneus, Neomys fodiens, Crocidura russula et Suncus murinus). Les résultats ont été interprétés dans le contexte de la théorie de la compétition spermatique, c'est-à-dire la compétition entre le sperme de deux ou plusieurs mâles pour féconder un maximum d'ovules de la même femelle. Cette compétition spermatique peut amener à certaines adaptations biologiques afin de produire plus de sperme. Comme attendu, une grande taille relative des testicules est associée à un nombre élevé de spermatozoïdes, dont la majorité présente une mobilité progressive. Un taux élévé de testostérone a également été observé. De plus, nous avons étudié l'influence du métabolisme basal ainsi que l'intensité de la compétition spermatique sur la durée du cycle de la spermatogenèse. Dans ce but, nous avons déterminé et comparé les durées de la spermatogenèse chez six espèces de musaraignes appartenant à deux sous-familles : Soricinae (Sorex araneus, Sorex coronatus, Sorex minutus, Neomys fodiens) et Crocidurinae (Crocidura russula, Suncus murinus). Les résultats obtenus indiquent que ces deux facteurs (l'intensité du métabolisme basal et de la compétition spermatique) agissent d'une manière dépendante ou indépendante dans le même sens. La conséquence de ces actions est une diminution de la durée de la spermatogenèse entraînant une augmentation de la production de spermatozoïdes. Nous avons finalement étudié ce phénomène dans l'ensemble des mammifères. Après avoir testé l'indépendance phylogénétique, nos résultats montrent que l'intensité de la compétition spermatique indiquée par le RTS est mieux corrélée avec la régulation de la durée de la spermatogenèse qu'avec l'intensité du métabolisme.

Lifelong dynamics of human CD4+CD25+ regulatory T cells: insights from in vivo data and mathematical modeling.

Despite their limited proliferation capacity, regulatory T cells (T(regs)) constitute a population maintained over the entire lifetime of a human organism. The means by which T(regs) sustain a stable pool in vivo are controversial. Using a mathematical model, we address this issue by evaluating several biological scenarios of the origins and the proliferation capacity of two subsets of T(regs): precursor CD4(+)CD25(+)CD45RO(-) and mature CD4(+)CD25(+)CD45RO(+) cells. The lifelong dynamics of T(regs) are described by a set of ordinary differential equations, driven by a stochastic process representing the major immune reactions involving these cells. The model dynamics are validated using data from human donors of different ages. Analysis of the data led to the identification of two properties of the dynamics: (1) the equilibrium in the CD4(+)CD25(+)FoxP3(+)T(regs) population is maintained over both precursor and mature T(regs) pools together, and (2) the ratio between precursor and mature T(regs) is inverted in the early years of adulthood. Then, using the model, we identified three biologically relevant scenarios that have the above properties: (1) the unique source of mature T(regs) is the antigen-driven differentiation of precursors that acquire the mature profile in the periphery and the proliferation of T(regs) is essential for the development and the maintenance of the pool; there exist other sources of mature T(regs), such as (2) a homeostatic density-dependent regulation or (3) thymus- or effector-derived T(regs), and in both cases, antigen-induced proliferation is not necessary for the development of a stable pool of T(regs). This is the first time that a mathematical model built to describe the in vivo dynamics of regulatory T cells is validated using human data. The application of this model provides an invaluable tool in estimating the amount of regulatory T cells as a function of time in the blood of patients that received a solid organ transplant or are suffering from an autoimmune disease.