Textural controls on induced polarization and permeability in granular media

The spatial resolution visualized with hydrological models and the conceptualized images of subsurface hydrological processes often exceed resolution of the data collected with classical instrumentation at the field scale. In recent years it was possible to increasingly diminish the inherent gap to information from point like field data through the application of hydrogeophysical methods at field-scale. With regards to all common geophysical exploration techniques, electric and electromagnetic methods have arguably to greatest sensitivity to hydrologically relevant parameters. Of particular interest in this context are induced polarisation (IP) measurements, which essentially constrain the capacity of a probed subsurface region to store an electrical charge. In the absence of metallic conductors the IP- response is largely driven by current conduction along the grain surfaces. This offers the perspective to link such measurements to the characteristics of the solid-fluid-interface and thus, at least in unconsolidated sediments, should allow for first-order estimates of the permeability structure.¦While the IP-effect is well explored through laboratory experiments and in part verified through field data for clay-rich environments, the applicability of IP-based characterizations to clay-poor aquifers is not clear. For example, polarization mechanisms like membrane polarization are not applicable in the rather wide pore-systems of clay free sands, and the direct transposition of Schwarz' theory relating polarization of spheres to the relaxation mechanism of polarized cells to complex natural sediments yields ambiguous results.¦In order to improve our understanding of the structural origins of IP-signals in such environments as well as their correlation with pertinent hydrological parameters, various laboratory measurements have been conducted. We consider saturated quartz samples with a grain size spectrum varying from fine sand to fine gravel, that is grain diameters between 0,09 and 5,6 mm, as well as corresponding pertinent mixtures which can be regarded as proxies for widespread alluvial deposits. The pore space characteristics are altered by changing (i) the grain size spectra, (ii) the degree of compaction, and (iii) the level of sorting. We then examined how these changes affect the SIP response, the hydraulic conductivity, and the specific surface area of the considered samples, while keeping any electrochemical variability during the measurements as small as possible. The results do not follow simple assumptions on relationships to single parameters such as grain size. It was found that the complexity of natural occurring media is not yet sufficiently represented when modelling IP. At the same time simple correlation to permeability was found to be strong and consistent. Hence, adaptations with the aim of better representing the geo-structure of natural porous media were applied to the simplified model space used in Schwarz' IP-effect-theory. The resulting semi- empiric relationship was found to more accurately predict the IP-effect and its relation to the parameters grain size and permeability. If combined with recent findings about the effect of pore fluid electrochemistry together with advanced complex resistivity tomography, these results will allow us to picture diverse aspects of the subsurface with relative certainty. Within the framework of single measurement campaigns, hydrologiste can than collect data with information about the geo-structure and geo-chemistry of the subsurface. However, additional research efforts will be necessary to further improve the understanding of the physical origins of IP-effect and minimize the potential for false interpretations.¦-¦Dans l'étude des processus et caractéristiques hydrologiques des subsurfaces, la résolution spatiale donnée par les modèles hydrologiques dépasse souvent la résolution des données du terrain récoltées avec des méthodes classiques d'hydrologie. Récemment il est possible de réduire de plus en plus cet divergence spatiale entre modèles numériques et données du terrain par l'utilisation de méthodes géophysiques, notamment celles géoélectriques. Parmi les méthodes électriques, la polarisation provoquée (PP) permet de représenter la capacité des roches poreuses et des sols à stocker une charge électrique. En l'absence des métaux dans le sous-sol, cet effet est largement influencé par des caractéristiques de surface des matériaux. En conséquence les mesures PP offrent une information des interfaces entre solides et fluides dans les matériaux poreux que nous pouvons lier à la perméabilité également dirigée par ces mêmes paramètres. L'effet de la polarisation provoquée à été étudié dans différentes études de laboratoire, ainsi que sur le terrain. A cause d'une faible capacité de polarisation des matériaux sableux, comparé aux argiles, leur caractérisation par l'effet-PP reste difficile a interpréter d'une manière cohérente pour les environnements hétérogènes.¦Pour améliorer les connaissances sur l'importance de la structure du sous-sol sableux envers l'effet PP et des paramètres hydrologiques, nous avons fait des mesures de laboratoire variées. En détail, nous avons considéré des échantillons sableux de quartz avec des distributions de taille de grain entre sables fins et graviers fins, en diamètre cela fait entre 0,09 et 5,6 mm. Les caractéristiques de l'espace poreux sont changées en modifiant (i) la distribution de taille des grains, (ii) le degré de compaction, et (iii) le niveau d'hétérogénéité dans la distribution de taille de grains. En suite nous étudions comment ces changements influencent l'effet-PP, la perméabilité et la surface spécifique des échantillons. Les paramètres électrochimiques sont gardés à un minimum pendant les mesures. Les résultats ne montrent pas de relation simple entre les paramètres pétro-physiques comme par exemples la taille des grains. La complexité des media naturels n'est pas encore suffisamment représenté par les modèles des processus PP. Néanmoins, la simple corrélation entre effet PP et perméabilité est fort et consistant. En conséquence la théorie de Schwarz sur l'effet-PP a été adapté de manière semi-empirique pour mieux pouvoir estimer la relation entre les résultats de l'effet-PP et les paramètres taille de graines et perméabilité. Nos résultats concernant l'influence de la texture des matériaux et celles de l'effet de l'électrochimie des fluides dans les pores, permettront de visualiser des divers aspects du sous-sol. Avec des telles mesures géo-électriques, les hydrologues peuvent collectionner des données contenant des informations sur la structure et la chimie des fluides des sous-sols. Néanmoins, plus de recherches sur les origines physiques de l'effet-PP sont nécessaires afin de minimiser le risque potentiel d'une mauvaise interprétation des données.

A multi-temporal approach to model endangered species distribution in Europe: the case of the Eurasian otter in Italy

We analysed the relationship between changes in land cover patterns and the Eurasian otter occurrence over the course of about 20 years (1985-2006) using multi-temporal Species Distribution Models (SDMs). The study area includes five river catchments covering most of the otter's Italian range. Land cover and topographic data were used as proxies of the ecological requirements of the otter within a 300-m buffer around river courses. We used species presence, pseudo-absence data, and environmental predictors to build past (1985) and current (2006) SDMs by applying an ensemble procedure through the BIOMOD modelling package. The performance of each model was evaluated by measuring the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver-operating characteristic (ROC). Multi-temporal analyses of species distribution and land cover maps were performed by comparing the maps produced for 1985 and 2006. The ensemble procedure provided a good overall modelling accuracy, revealing that elevation and slope affected the otter's distribution in the past; in contrast, land cover predictors, such as cultivations and forests, were more important in the present period. During the transition period, 20.5% of the area became suitable, with 76% of the new otter presence data being located in these newly available areas. The multi-temporal analysis suggested that the quality of otter habitat improved in the last 20 years owing to the expansion of forests and to the reduction of cultivated fields in riparian belts. The evidence presented here stresses the great potential of riverine habitat restoration and environmental management for the future expansion of the otter in Italy

Functional error modeling for uncertainty quantification in hydrogeology

Approximate models (proxies) can be employed to reduce the computational costs of estimating uncertainty. The price to pay is that the approximations introduced by the proxy model can lead to a biased estimation. To avoid this problem and ensure a reliable uncertainty quantification, we propose to combine functional data analysis and machine learning to build error models that allow us to obtain an accurate prediction of the exact response without solving the exact model for all realizations. We build the relationship between proxy and exact model on a learning set of geostatistical realizations for which both exact and approximate solvers are run. Functional principal components analysis (FPCA) is used to investigate the variability in the two sets of curves and reduce the dimensionality of the problem while maximizing the retained information. Once obtained, the error model can be used to predict the exact response of any realization on the basis of the sole proxy response. This methodology is purpose-oriented as the error model is constructed directly for the quantity of interest, rather than for the state of the system. Also, the dimensionality reduction performed by FPCA allows a diagnostic of the quality of the error model to assess the informativeness of the learning set and the fidelity of the proxy to the exact model. The possibility of obtaining a prediction of the exact response for any newly generated realization suggests that the methodology can be effectively used beyond the context of uncertainty quantification, in particular for Bayesian inference and optimization.

Longitudinal study of informed consent in innovative therapy research: experience and provisional recommendations from a multicenter trial of intracerebral grafting.

BACKGROUND: There is an urgent need to assess and improve the consent process in clinical trials of innovative therapies for neurodegenerative disorders. METHODS: We performed a longitudinal study of the consent of Huntington's disease patients during the Multicenter Fetal Cell Intracerebral Grafting Trial in Huntington's Disease (MIG-HD) in France and Belgium. Patients and their proxies completed a consent questionnaire at inclusion, before signing the consent form and after one year of follow-up, before randomization and transplantation. The questionnaire explored understanding of the protocol, satisfaction with the information delivered, reasons for participating in the trial and expectations regarding the transplant. Forty-six Huntington's disease patients and 27 proxies completed the questionnaire at inclusion, and 27 Huntington's disease patients and 16 proxies one year later. RESULTS: The comprehension score was high and similar for Huntington's disease patients and proxies at inclusion (72.6% vs 77.8%; P > 0.1) but only decreased in HD patients after one year. The information satisfaction score was high (73.5% vs 66.5%; P > 0.1) and correlated with understanding in both patients and proxies. The motivation and expectation profiles were similar in patients and proxies and remained unchanged after one year. CONCLUSIONS: Cognitively impaired patients with Huntington's disease were capable of consenting to participation in this trial. This consent procedure has presumably strengthened their understanding and should be proposed before signing the consent form in future gene or cell therapy trials for neurodegenerative disorders. Because of the potential cognitive decline, proxies should be designated as provisional surrogate decision-makers, even in competent patients.

Three Essays on International Trade and the Labor Market

The thesis is made of three independent chapters interested in the impact of globalization on workers in industrialized countries. The dissertation is especially focused on identifying the causal impact of international trade on workers' mobility, wages, and employment with both a short- and medium-term perspective. The first paper explores the relation between intra-industry trade (IIT) expansion and associated worker flows, taking the latter as an indicator of labor-market adjustment costs. Being the first study to combine theoretical simulations and a novel identification strategy, we find that both theoretical and empirical analyses are consistent with the "smooth adjustment hypothesis", according to which IIT expansion is less disruptive than inter-industry trade expansion. The study therefore lends support to the use of IIT indices as first-pass proxies for the adjustment effects of trade expansion. The second chapter contrasts the impact of increased import competition coming from China and the European Union (EU) on workers in the United Kingdom over a 15-year period. The most salient findings show that increased imports from China had significantly negative effects on workers' earnings, wages and employment. In contrast, larger imports from the EU are associated with positive worker-level outcomes, which is largely explained by the fact that increased imports from the EU were mostly offset by increased same-industry exports to the EU. Besides, we find that increased imports from China exert additional pressure on workers through spillovers to employment and wages in downstream industries. Finally, the last chapter is focused on the impact of exposure to trade and real exchange rate shocks on wages for Swiss manufacturing workers. A particular attention is made to consistently estimate the causal effect in using a two-step gravity-type identification strategy. The study shows that the impact of trade and exchange rate movements is concentrated among high-skilled workers almost exclusively.

Transparency and trust in government (2007-2014): a comparative study

In a 2000 report entitled "Trust in government. Ethics measures in OECD countries," OECD Secretary-General Donald J. Johnston emphasized the fact that public ethics are considered as a keystone of good governance. Moreover, public ethics are a prerequisite to public trust, which is in turn vital not only to any public service, but also to any society in general. At the same time, transparency reforms have flourished over the last few years and have several times been designed as a response to public distrust. Therefore, ethics, transparency and trust are closely linked together in a supposed virtuous circle where transparency works as a factor of better public ethics and leads to more trust in government on the citizens' side. This article explores the links between transparency and levels of trust in 10 countries between 2007 and 2014, using open data indexes and access to information requests as proxies for transparency. A national ranking of transparency, based on requests submitted by citizens to the administration and open data indexes, is then proposed. Key findings show that there is no sharp decline of trust in government in all countries considered in this article, and that transparency and trust in government are not systematically positively associated. Therefore, this article challenges the common assumption, mostly found in the normative literature, about a positive interrelation between the two, where trust in government is conceived as a beneficial effect of administrative transparency.