Evidential relevance in scene to offender transfer cases: development and analysis of a likelihood ratio for offence level propositions

The present paper focuses on the analysis and discussion of a likelihood ratio (LR) development for propositions at a hierarchical level known in the context as 'offence level'. Existing literature on the topic has considered LR developments for so-called offender to scene transfer cases. These settings involve-in their simplest form-a single stain found on a crime scene, but with possible uncertainty about the degree to which that stain is relevant (i.e. that it has been left by the offender). Extensions to multiple stains or multiple offenders have also been reported. The purpose of this paper is to discuss a development of a LR for offence level propositions when case settings involve potential transfer in the opposite direction, i.e. victim/scene to offender transfer. This setting has previously not yet been considered. The rationale behind the proposed LR is illustrated through graphical probability models (i.e. Bayesian networks). The role of various uncertain parameters is investigated through sensitivity analyses as well as simulations.

Compliance to dietary advice directed towards increasing the carbohydrate to fat ratio of the everyday diet.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the effects, on food intake, body weight and body composition, of compliance to advice aiming at increasing the carbohydrate to fat ratio of the everyday diet without imposing voluntary restriction on the amount of food consumed. DESIGN: Eight moderately overweight women (body mass index > 27 kg/m2, relative body fat mass > 30%) received dietary advice during a 2 month period. Additionally, each evening the subjects had to consume a meal artificially enriched with 13C-glucose in order to assess their compliance from the 13CO2 enrichment in expired air. MEASUREMENTS: Dietary intakes, body weight, body composition and individual compliance. RESULTS: The energy derived from fat decreased from 44 +/- 1% to 31 +/- 1% and the proportion of carbohydrate increased from 38 +/- 2% to 50 +/- 1%, whereas the absolute carbohydrate intake remained constant (182 +/- 18 g/d). Energy intake decreased by 1569 +/- 520 kJ/d. There was a net loss of fat mass (1.7 +/- 0.7 kg, P = 0.016) with fat free mass maintenance. Dietary compliance ranged from 20 to 93% (mean: 60 +/- 8%) and was positively correlated to the loss of body fat mass. CONCLUSION: Advice aiming at increasing diet's carbohydrate to fat ratio induces a loss of fat mass with fat-free mass maintenance.

Manipulating sex ratio to increase population growth: the example of the Lesser Kestrel

Small or decreasing populations call for emergency actions like, for example, captive breeding programs. Such programs aim at rapidly increasing population sizes in order to reduce the loss of genetic variability and to avoid possible Allee effects. The Lesser Kestrel Falco naumanni is one of the species that is currently supported in several captive breeding programs at various locations. Here, we model the demographic and genetic consequences of potential management strategies that are based on offspring sex ratio manipulation. Increased population growth could be achieved by manipulating female conditions and/or male attractiveness in the captive breeders and consequently shifting the offspring sex ratio towards more female offspring, which are then used for reintroduction. Fragmenting populations into wild-breeding and captive-breeding demes and manipulating population sex ratio both immediately increase the inbreeding coefficient in the next generation (i.e. decrease N-e) but may, in the long term, reduce the loss of genetic variability if population growth is restricted by the number of females. We use the Lesser Kestrel and the wealth of information that is available on this species to predict the long-term consequences of various kinds of sex-ratio manipulation. We find that, in our example and possibly in many other cases, a sex-ratio manipulation that seems realistic could have a beneficial effect on the captive breeding program. However, the possible long-term costs and benefits of such measures need to be carefully optimized.

Adjuvants that improve the ratio of antigen-specific effector to regulatory T cells enhance tumor immunity.

Antitumor immunity is strongly influenced by the balance of tumor antigen-specific effector and regulatory T cells. However, the impact that vaccine adjuvants have in regulating the balance of antigen-specific T cell populations is not well understood. We found that antigen-specific T regulatory cells (Treg) were induced following subcutaneous vaccination with either OVA or melanoma-derived peptides, with a restricted expansion of effector T cells. Addition of the adjuvants CpG-ODN or Poly(I:C) preferentially amplified effector T cells over Tregs, dramatically increasing the antigen-specific T effector:Treg ratios and inducing polyfunctional effector cells. In contrast, two other adjuvants, imiquimod and Quil A saponin, favored an expansion of antigen-specific Tregs and failed to increase effector T cell:Treg ratios. Following therapeutic vaccination of tumor-bearing mice, high ratios of tumor-specific effector T cells:Tregs in draining lymph nodes were associated with enhanced CD8+ T cell infiltration at the tumor site and a durable rejection of tumors. Vaccine formulations of peptide+CpG-ODN or Poly(I:C) induced selective production of pro-inflammatory Type I cytokines early after vaccination. This environment promoted CD8+ and CD4+ effector T cell expansion over that of antigen-specific Tregs, tipping the effector T cell to Treg balance to favor effector cells. Our findings advance understanding of the influence of different adjuvants on T cell populations, facilitating the rational design of more effective cancer vaccines.

Different likelihood ratio approaches to evaluate the strength of evidence of MDMA tablet comparisons

Two likelihood ratio (LR) approaches are presented to evaluate the strength of evidence of MDMA tablet comparisons. The first one is based on a more 'traditional' comparison of MDMA tablets by using distance measures (e.g., Pearson correlation distance or a Euclidean distance). In this approach, LRs are calculated using the distribution of distances between tablets of the same-batch and that of different-batches. The second approach is based on methods used in some other fields of forensic comparison. Here LRs are calculated based on the distribution of values of MDMA tablet characteristics within a specific batch and from all batches. The data used in this paper must be seen as examples to illustrate both methods. In future research the methods can be applied to other and more complex data. In this paper, the methods and their results are discussed, considering their performance in evidence evaluation and several practical aspects. With respect to evidence in favor of the correct hypothesis, the second method proved to be better than the first one. It is shown that the LRs in same-batch comparisons are generally higher compared to the first method and the LRs in different-batch comparisons are generally lower. On the other hand, for operational purposes (where quick information is needed), the first method may be preferred, because it is less time consuming. With this method a model has to be estimated only once in a while, which means that only a few measurements have to be done, while with the second method more measurements are needed because each time a new model has to be estimated.

Oral flurbiprofen metabolic ratio assessment using a single-point dried blood spot.

We investigated whether a single blood measurement using the minimally invasive technique of a finger prick to draw a blood sample of 5 µl (to yield a dried blood spot (DBS)) is suitable for the assessment of flurbiprofen (FLB) metabolic ratio (MR). Ten healthy volunteers who had been genotyped for CYP2C9 were recruited as subjects. They received FLB alone in session 1 and FLB with fluconazole in session 2. In session 3, the subjects were pretreated for 4 days with rifampicin and received FLB with the last dose of rifampicin on day 5. Plasma and DBS samples were obtained between 0 and 8 h after FLB administration, and urine was collected during the 8 h after administration. The pharmacokinetic profiles of the drugs were comparable in DBS and plasma. FLB's apparent clearance values decreased by 35% in plasma and DBS during session 2 and increased by 75% in plasma and by 30% in DBS during session 3. Good correlations were observed between MRs calculated from urine, plasma, and DBS samples.

Persistent unequal sex ratio in a population of grayling (salmonidae) and possible role of temperature increase.

In some fishes, water chemistry or temperature affects sex determination or creates sex-specific selection pressures. The resulting population sex ratios are hard to predict from laboratory studies if the environmental triggers interact with other factors, whereas in field studies, singular observations of unusual sex ratios may be particularly prone to selective reporting. Long-term monitoring largely avoids these problems. We studied a population of grayling (Thymallus thymallus) in Lake Thun, Switzerland, that has been monitored since 1948. Samples of spawning fish have been caught about 3 times/week around spawning season, and water temperature at the spawning site has been continuously recorded since 1970. We used scale samples collected in different years to determine the average age of spawners (for life-stage specific analyses) and to identify the cohort born in 2003 (an extraordinarily warm year). Recent tissue samples were genotyped on microsatellite markers to test for genetic bottlenecks in the past and to estimate the genetically effective population size (N(e) ). Operational sex ratios changed from approximately 65% males before 1993 to approximately 85% males from 1993 to 2011. Sex ratios correlated with the water temperatures the fish experienced in their first year of life. Sex ratios were best explained by the average temperature juvenile fish experienced during their first summer. Grayling abundance is declining, but we found no evidence of a strong genetic bottleneck that would explain the apparent lack of evolutionary response to the unequal sex ratio. Results of other studies show no evidence of endocrine disruptors in the study area. Our findings suggest temperature affects population sex ratio and thereby contributes to population decline. Persistencia de Proporción de Sexos Desigual en una Población de Tímalos (Salmonidae) y el Posible Papel del Incremento de la Temperatura.

Probabilistic evidential assessment of gunshot residue particle evidence (Part I): likelihood ratio calculation and case pre-assessment using Bayesian networks

Well developed experimental procedures currently exist for retrieving and analyzing particle evidence from hands of individuals suspected of being associated with the discharge of a firearm. Although analytical approaches (e.g. automated Scanning Electron Microscopy with Energy Dispersive X-ray (SEM-EDS) microanalysis) allow the determination of the presence of elements typically found in gunshot residue (GSR) particles, such analyses provide no information about a given particle's actual source. Possible origins for which scientists may need to account for are a primary exposure to the discharge of a firearm or a secondary transfer due to a contaminated environment. In order to approach such sources of uncertainty in the context of evidential assessment, this paper studies the construction and practical implementation of graphical probability models (i.e. Bayesian networks). These can assist forensic scientists in making the issue tractable within a probabilistic perspective. The proposed models focus on likelihood ratio calculations at various levels of detail as well as case pre-assessment.

A genome-wide screen for interactions reveals a new locus on 4p15 modifying the effect of waist-to-hip ratio on total cholesterol.

Recent genome-wide association (GWA) studies described 95 loci controlling serum lipid levels. These common variants explain ∼25% of the heritability of the phenotypes. To date, no unbiased screen for gene-environment interactions for circulating lipids has been reported. We screened for variants that modify the relationship between known epidemiological risk factors and circulating lipid levels in a meta-analysis of genome-wide association (GWA) data from 18 population-based cohorts with European ancestry (maximum N = 32,225). We collected 8 further cohorts (N = 17,102) for replication, and rs6448771 on 4p15 demonstrated genome-wide significant interaction with waist-to-hip-ratio (WHR) on total cholesterol (TC) with a combined P-value of 4.79×10(-9). There were two potential candidate genes in the region, PCDH7 and CCKAR, with differential expression levels for rs6448771 genotypes in adipose tissue. The effect of WHR on TC was strongest for individuals carrying two copies of G allele, for whom a one standard deviation (sd) difference in WHR corresponds to 0.19 sd difference in TC concentration, while for A allele homozygous the difference was 0.12 sd. Our findings may open up possibilities for targeted intervention strategies for people characterized by specific genomic profiles. However, more refined measures of both body-fat distribution and metabolic measures are needed to understand how their joint dynamics are modified by the newly found locus.

Molar substitution and C2/C6 ratio of hydroxyethyl starch: influence of blood coagulation

Résumé Cette étude a démontré l'effet individuel sur la coagulation sanguine humaine des deux principales caractéristiques de la molécule d'hydroxyéthylamidon (HES) : la substitution molaire et le rapport C2/C6. L'analyse par thrombélastographe (TEG®) indique que la molécule de HES dont la substitution molaire est de 0.42 et le rapport C2/C6 de 2.7 a le moins d'effet sur la coagulation sanguine chez l'être humain. Objectifs de l'étude Le développement d'hydroxyéthylamidons (HES) qui ont à la fois peu d'impact sur la coagulation sanguine et une longue persistance intravasculaire est d'un grand intérêt clinique. Une précédente étude in vitro a démontré qu'une solution de HES de haut poids moléculaire et de bas degré de substitution molaire ne compromettait pas plus la coagulation sanguine qu'une solution HES de poids moléculaire moyen (1). La présente étude examine l'effet individuel de la substitution molaire et du rapport C2/C6 d'une solution de HES de haut poids moléculaire (700 kDa) sur la coagulation sanguine. Matériel et méthode Nous avons prélevé du sang chez 30 adultes en bonne santé; le sang a été mélangé avec 6 solutions de HES qui diffèrent par leur degré de substitution molaire (0.42 et 0.51) et leur rapport C2/C6 (2.7, 7 et 14) à trois degrés de dilution : 20%, 40% et 60%. Les échantillons ont ensuite été analysés par thrombélastographe. Les données ont été étudiées par analyse de variance à trois voies pour mesures répétées sur une voie (dilution). Résultats Plus la substitution molaire est élevée, plus la coagulation sanguine est compromise et ce concernant tous les paramètres du TEG® (tous les p sont < à 0.05). La solution HES avec le rapport C2/C6 le plus bas a l'effet le moins prononcé sur le temps r (p<0.001), l'angle α (p=0.003) et l'Index de Coagulation CI (p<0.001) ; on n'a pas observé d'effet sur le temps k (p=0.513) et l'amplitude maximale (p=0.699) concernant ce paramètre. Conclusion L'analyse par thrombélastographe révèle qu'une molécule de HES avec une substitution molaire de 0.42 et un rapport C2/C6 de 2.7 a un effet minimal sur la coagulation sanguine humaine in vitro.

Maternal exposure to polychlorinated biphenyls and the secondary sex ratio: an occupational cohort study.

Background: Though commercial production of polychlorinated biphenyls was banned in the United States in 1977, exposure continues due to their environmental persistence. Several studies have examined the associationbetween environmental polychlorinated biphenyl exposure and modulations of the secondary sex ratio, with conflicting results.Objective: Our objective was to evaluate the association between maternal preconceptional occupational polychlorinated biphenyl exposure and the secondary sex ratio.Methods: We examined primipara singleton births of 2595 women, who worked in three capacitor plants at least one year during the period polychlorinated biphenyls were used. Cumulative estimated maternal occupationalpolychlorinated biphenyl exposure at the time of the infant's conception was calculated from plant-specific job exposure matrices. A logistic regression analysis was used to evaluate the association between maternalpolychlorinated biphenyl exposure and male sex at birth (yes/no).Results: Maternal body mass index at age 20, smoking status, and race did not vary between those occupationally exposed and those unexposed before the child's conception. Polychlorinated biphenyl-exposed mothers were, however, more likely to have used oral contraceptives and to have been older at the birth of their first child than non-occupationally exposed women. Among 1506 infants liveborn to polychlorinated biphenyl-exposedprimiparous women, 49.8% were male; compared to 49.9% among those not exposed (n = 1089). Multivariate analyses controlling for mother's age and year of birth found no significant association between the odds of amale birth and mother's cumulative estimated polychlorinated biphenyl exposure to time of conception.Conclusions: Based on these data, we find no evidence of altered sex ratio among children born to primiparous polychlorinated biphenyl-exposed female workers.

Inbreeding and selection on sex ratio in the bark beetle Xylosandrus germanus.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Local Mate Competition (LMC) theory predicts a female should produce a more female-biased sex ratio if her sons compete with each other for mates. Because it provides quantitative predictions that can be experimentally tested, LMC is a textbook example of the predictive power of evolutionary theory. A limitation of many earlier studies in the field is that the population structure and mating system of the studied species are often estimated only indirectly. Here we use microsatellites to characterize the levels of inbreeding of the bark beetle Xylosandrus germanus, a species where the level of LMC is expected to be high. RESULTS: For three populations studied, genetic variation for our genetic markers was very low, indicative of an extremely high level of inbreeding (FIS = 0.88). There was also strong linkage disequilibrium between microsatellite loci and a very strong genetic differentiation between populations. The data suggest that matings among non-siblings are very rare (3%), although sex ratios from X. germanus in both the field and the laboratory have suggested more matings between non-sibs, and so less intense LMC. CONCLUSIONS: Our results confirm that caution is needed when inferring mating systems from sex ratio data, especially when a lack of biological detail means the use of overly simple forms of the model of interest.

Sex ratio and Wolbachia infection in the ant Formica exsecta.

Sex allocation data in social Hymenoptera provide some of the best tests of kin selection, parent-offspring conflict and sex ratio theories. However, these studies critically depend on controlling for confounding ecological factors and on identifying all parties that potentially manipulate colony sex ratio. It has been suggested that maternally inherited parasites may influence sex allocation in social Hymenoptera. If the parasites can influence sex allocation, infected colonies are predicted to invest more resources in females than non-infected colonies, because the parasites are transmitted through females but not males. Prime candidates for such sex ratio manipulation are Wolbachia, because these cytoplasmically transmitted bacteria have been shown to affect the sex ratio of host arthropods by cytoplasmic incompatibility, parthenogenesis, male-killing and feminization. In this study, we tested whether Wolbachia infection is associated with colony sex ratio in two populations of the ant Formica exsecta that have been the subject of extensive sex ratio studies. In these populations colonies specialize in the production of one sex or the other. We found that almost all F. exsecta colonies in both populations are infected with Wolbachia. However, in neither population did we find a significant association in the predicted direction between the prevalence of Wolbachia and colony sex ratio. In particular, colonies with a higher proportion of infected workers did not produce more females. Hence, we conclude that Wolbachia does not seem to alter the sex ratio of its hosts as a means to increase transmission rate in these two populations of ants.