A Bayesian network approach to the database serch problem in criminal proceedings

Background The 'database search problem', that is, the strengthening of a case - in terms of probative value - against an individual who is found as a result of a database search, has been approached during the last two decades with substantial mathematical analyses, accompanied by lively debate and centrally opposing conclusions. This represents a challenging obstacle in teaching but also hinders a balanced and coherent discussion of the topic within the wider scientific and legal community. This paper revisits and tracks the associated mathematical analyses in terms of Bayesian networks. Their derivation and discussion for capturing probabilistic arguments that explain the database search problem are outlined in detail. The resulting Bayesian networks offer a distinct view on the main debated issues, along with further clarity. Methods As a general framework for representing and analyzing formal arguments in probabilistic reasoning about uncertain target propositions (that is, whether or not a given individual is the source of a crime stain), this paper relies on graphical probability models, in particular, Bayesian networks. This graphical probability modeling approach is used to capture, within a single model, a series of key variables, such as the number of individuals in a database, the size of the population of potential crime stain sources, and the rarity of the corresponding analytical characteristics in a relevant population. Results This paper demonstrates the feasibility of deriving Bayesian network structures for analyzing, representing, and tracking the database search problem. The output of the proposed models can be shown to agree with existing but exclusively formulaic approaches. Conclusions The proposed Bayesian networks allow one to capture and analyze the currently most well-supported but reputedly counter-intuitive and difficult solution to the database search problem in a way that goes beyond the traditional, purely formulaic expressions. The method's graphical environment, along with its computational and probabilistic architectures, represents a rich package that offers analysts and discussants with additional modes of interaction, concise representation, and coherent communication.

Intelligence-led crime scene processing. Part II : Intelligence and crime scene examination

A better integration of the information conveyed by traces within intelligence-led framework would allow forensic science to participate more intensively to security assessments through forensic intelligence (part I). In this view, the collection of data by examining crime scenes is an entire part of intelligence processes. This conception frames our proposal for a model that promotes to better use knowledge available in the organisation for driving and supporting crime scene examination. The suggested model also clarifies the uncomfortable situation of crime scene examiners who must simultaneously comply with justice needs and expectations, and serve organisations that are mostly driven by broader security objectives. It also opens new perspective for forensic science and crime scene investigation, by the proposal to follow other directions than the traditional path suggested by dominant movements in these fields.

Characteristics of victims of violence admitted to a specialized medico-legal unit in Switzerland.

To improve care and services to victims of interpersonal violence, a medico-legal consultation unit was set up at the Lausanne University Hospital, Switzerland in 2006. Adult victims of violence are referred to the consultation by the emergency department. Patients are received by forensic nurses for support, forensic examination and community orientation. A descriptive study of medical reports filled for the 2006 population was conducted in 2007 with the aim to explore characteristics of this specific population and to better orient prevention. Among the 422 patients in 2006, 57% were men and 43% women, with a median age of 31 years old. Violent episodes took place in a public place for 90% of male victims and at home for 70% of female victims. The perpetrators were mostly unknown to male victims (62% of all men victims) and mostly known (usually the partner or a former partner) to female victims (90% of all women victims). For 80% of the women and 47% of the men, the violent event which brought them to the consultation, was not the first one. Because 90% of all patients under study were victimized by men., not only is it necessary to target prevention program to match the potential victims, prevention messages must also focus on potential offenders, especially on young men.

Topics in public finance: social security and taxation

Summary The field of public finance focuses on the spending and taxing activities of governments and their influence on the allocation of resources and distribution of income. This work covers in three parts different topics related to public finance which are currently widely discussed in media and politics. The first two parts deal with issues on social security, which is in general one of the biggest spending shares of governments. The third part looks at the main income source of governments by analyzing the perceived value of tax competition. Part one deals with the current problem of increased early retirement by focusing on Switzerland as a special case. Early retirement is predominantly considered to be the result of incentives set by social security and the tax system. But the Swiss example demonstrates that the incidence of early retirement has dramatically increased even in the absence of institutional changes. We argue that the wealth effect also plays an important role in the retirement decision for middle and high income earners. An actuarially fair, but mandatory funded system with a relatively high replacement rate may thus contribute to a low labor market participation rate of elderly workers. We provide evidence using a unique dataset on individual retirement decisions in Swiss pension funds, allowing us to perfectly control for pension scheme details. Our findings suggest that affordability is a key determinant in the retirement decisions. The higher the accumulated pension capital, the earlier men, and to a smaller extent women, tend to leave the workforce. The fact that early retirement has become much more prevalent in the last 15 years is a further indicator of the importance of a wealth effect, as the maturing of the Swiss mandatory funded pension system over that period has led to an increase in the effective replacement rates for middle and high income earners. Part two covers the theoretical side of social security. Theories analyzing optimal social security benefits provide important qualitative results, by mainly using one general type of an economy. Economies are however very diverse concerning numerous aspects, one of the most important being the wealth level. This can lead to significant quantitative benefit differences that imply differences in replacement rates and levels of labor supply. We focus on several aspects related to this fact. In a within cohort social security model, we introduce disability insurance with an imperfect screening mechanism. We then vary the wealth level of the model economy and analyze how the optimal social security benefit structure or equivalently, the optimal replacement rates, changes depending on the wealth level of the economy, and if the introduction of disability insurance into a social security system is preferable for all economies. Second, the screening mechanism of disability insurance and the threshold level at which people are defined as disabled can differ. For economies with different wealth levels, we determine for different thresholds the screening level that maximizes social welfare. Finally, part three turns to the income of governments, by adding an element to the controversy on tax competition versus tax harmonization.2 Inter-jurisdictional tax competition can generate at least two potential benefits or costs: On a public level, tax competition may result in a lower or higher efficiency in the production of public services. But there is also a more private benefit in the form of an option for individuals to move to a community with a lower tax rate in the future. To explore the value citizens attach to tax competition we analyze a unique popular vote for a complete tax harmonization between communities in the third largest Swiss canton, Vaud. Although a majority of voters would have seemingly benefited from replacing the current tax rate by a revenue-neutral average tax rate, the proposal was rejected by a large margin. Our estimates suggest that the estimated combined perceived benefit from tax competition is in the range of 10%.

The right to appeal in cases of forensic autopsies. [Le droit de recours en matière d'autopsies médico-légales.]

The decision to carry out forensic autopsies is frequently made to determine the reasons of the death, especially in cases of non-natural death. In Switzerland, the judge strictly controls the authorisation to conduct forensic autopsies and the possibility to appeal against such a decision remains limited. This article aims to analyse the legal framework that enables appeals against a decision to conduct a forensic autopsy, taking into account the jurisprudence from the High Court of Switzerland (Tribunal Fédéral) and the European Court of Human Rights. La décision de pratiquer des autopsies médico-légales est très fréquente pour déterminer les causes de décès, notamment lorsque ceux-ci semblent avoir des causes non naturelles. En Suisse, l'autorisation de procéder à des autopsies médico-légales est strictement encadrée sur le plan légal et la faculté de s'opposer à une telle autorisation reste très limitée. L'article s'attache à analyser les conditions qui permettent de recourir contre une décision d'autopsie médico-légale, à la lumière notamment des décisions du Tribunal Fédéral et de la Cour européenne des droits de l'homme.

Ageing prisoners' health care: analysing the legal settings in Europe and the United States.

BACKGROUND: Relatively little is known about the current health care situation and the legal rights of ageing prisoners worldwide. To date, only a few studies have investigated their rights to health care. However, elderly prisoners need special attention. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this article is to critically review the health care situation of older prisoners by analysing the relevant national and international legal frameworks with a particular focus on Switzerland, England and Wales, and the United States (U.S.). METHODS: Publications on legal frameworks were searched using Web of Science, PubMed, MEDLINE, HeinOnline, and the National Criminal Justice Reference Service. Searches utilizing combinations of keywords relating to ageing prisoners were performed. Relevant reports and policy documents were obtained in order to understand the legal settings in Switzerland, England and Wales, and the U.S. All articles, reports, and policy documents published in English and German between 1774 to June 2012 were included for analysis. Using a comparative approach, an outline was completed to distinguish positive policies in this area. Regulatory approaches were investigated through evaluations of soft laws applicable in Europe and U.S. Supreme Court judgements. RESULTS: Even though several documents could be interpreted as guaranteeing adequate health care for ageing prisoners, there is no specific regulation that addresses this issue completely. The Vienna International Plan of Action on Ageing contributes the most by providing an in-depth analysis of the health care needs of older persons. Still, critical analysis of retrieved documents reveals the lack of specific legislation regarding the health care for ageing prisoners. CONCLUSION: No consistent regulation delineates the provision of health care for ageing prisoners. Neither national nor international institutions have enforceable laws that secure the precarious situation of older adults in prisons. To initiate a change, this work presents critical issues that must be addressed to protect the right to health care and well-being of ageing prisoners. Additionally, it is important to design legal structures and guidelines which acknowledge and accommodate the needs of ageing prisoners.

Non-remboursement de la fécondation in vitro : il est temps de changer d'avis

La fécondation in vitro (FIV) n'est pas remboursée. Le Tribunal fédéral le répète inlassablement depuis bientôt 30 ans. Néanmoins, les assurées ne baissent pas les bras et périodiquement resoumettent la question, espérant que de nouvelles données scientifiques sauront infléchir la Haute Cour. En vain. Le tribunal l'a redit en octobre 2012:1 cette prestation n'est pas à charge des caisses.2 L'ordonnance sur les prestations de l'assurance-maladie (OPAS3) le prévoit explicitement, et il n'y a simplement pas lieu d'examiner une disposition d'une ordonnance du Département fédéral de l'intérieur (DFI). Le raisonnement est toutefois un peu court. Premièrement, le refus du Tribunal fédéral d'examiner si l'ordonnance respecte le cadre de la délégation législative ne convainc pas. Deuxièmement, la FIV remplit les critères imposés à la prise en charge tels que décidés par le législateur dans la loi sur l'assurance-maladie (LAMal4). Enfin, les assurés qui décident de recourir contre un refus de remboursement sont privés des garanties minimales de procédure que leur garantit pourtant la Convention européenne des droits de l'homme. La présente contribution commence par une brève description de la FIV. Elle expose ensuite la législation applicable (partie 2) et la jurisprudence fédérale qui en découle (partie 3). La partie suivante critique la position du Tribunal fédéral au regard des principes énoncés dans la législation. Une comparaison avec l'insémination intra-utérine (IIU), pour laquelle le Tribunal fédéral a admis le remboursement, met en lumière les incohérences de la jurisprudence. La compatibilité de la jurisprudence fédérale avec l'art. 6 de la Convention européenne sur les droits de l'homme est évaluée. La conclusion plaide pour une réforme partielle du système procédural gouvernant la prise en charge des prestations de soins, mais aussi des techniques médicales alternatives.

Droits du patient: ce que le nouveau Code civil va modifier dans les soins aux enfants [Patients' rights: what the new swiss civil code will change in the health care of children].

Recent progress in medicine allow to provide treatment, to cure or to extend the lifespan of people that would have not survived before. Doctors and healthcare providers have become indispensable actors in Western societies. This is particularly true for children's health issues. With the new information technologies, knowledge is now available to everyone, which enables patients to dialog on an equal footing with the physician. Nowadays, therapeutic choices are discussed and negotiated. The new tensions caused by this relationship between therapist and patient have created the need for new regulations. The Swiss Confederation has modified its Civil Code with the objective of a better protection of vulnerable individuals. This article summarizes the consequences of the new regulations with regard to the care and treatment provided to children.

Do Nasty and Pleasant Surprises Regarding Tax Revenue Explain Spending Drifts ? : The Case of the Swiss Cantons

This article aims to explain the difference between the expenditure reported in governmental end-of-the-year budgets and the amounts previously forecasted in the approved beginning-of-the-year budgets. We measure how political, financial, and institutional variables affect this spending drift. We focus on two much-debated factors, namely, tax revenue budgeting errors and the stringency of fiscal rules. Our econometric approach uses a panel based on the 26 Swiss cantons covering the period of 1980 to 2011. Results suggest that stringent fiscal rules discourage budget overruns, whereas underestimating tax revenue-i.e., a budgetary "pleasant surprise"-offers the opportunity for some overspending.

A half century retrospective study of homicide-suicide in Geneva--Switzerland: 1956-2005.

This study provides a retrospective review from the forensic files of the University Centre of Legal Medicine in Western Switzerland in Geneva, from January 1956 to December 2005. The studied homicide-suicide cases cover a period of half a century (50 years). As a rule, all police-ordered forensic examinations of violent death cases in the Canton of Geneva are conducted by the University Centre of Legal Medicine. All of the data necessary for an exhaustive retrospective study are thus readily available. During the period covered in this work, 228 homicides were perpetrated in Geneva. In 23 cases, the homicide was followed by the suicide of the aggressor. The 34 victims of these homicides (18 women, 1 man and 15 children) had either an intimate or filial relationship with the perpetrator. Most of the suicidal perpetrators were men that killed their spouses or intimate partners, with children as additional victims in some cases. Shooting was the most common means to kill, followed by stabbing. The majority of the victims and perpetrators were Swiss nationals. This retrospective study shows that in the last 50 years, homicide-suicide cases in the Canton of Geneva have been a rare and an episodic phenomena with a very variable frequency from 1 year to another.

Bureaucracy and the flypaper effect : Evidence from intercommunal fiscal equalisation in the canton of Vaud

Unlike classical theoretical expectations, our empirical study shows that financial transfers to decentralised governments increase local public expenditures much more than would be triggered by an equivalent rise in local income. This empirical evidence of the presence of a flypaper effect is achieved using panel data from 375 municipalities located in the Swiss canton of Vaud covering the period 1994 to 2005. During that time there was a major change in the financial equalisation scheme. Furthermore, our study confirms the analysis of the public choice theory: the effect depends partly on the degree of complexity of the municipal bureaucracy. These results show that local bureaucratic behaviour may impede the effectiveness of a financial equalisation scheme that aims to reduce disparities in local tax.

Opinions on tobacco control policies in Lausanne, Switzerland, 2003-2006.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the determinants of opinions regarding tobacco control policies in the Swiss general population. METHODS: Cross-sectional study conducted between 2003 and 2006 on a random sample of adult residents of Lausanne, Switzerland, aged 35-75 years (2601 women and 2398 men). Nine questions on smoking policies were applied. RESULTS: Ninety-five percent of responders supported policies that would help smokers to quit, 92% no selling of tobacco to subjects aged less than 16 years, 87% a smoking ban in public places and 86% a national campaign against smoking. A further 77% supported a total ban on tobacco advertising, 74% the reimbursement of nicotine replacement therapies and 70% an increase in the price of cigarettes. A lower support was found for two non-evidence-based interventions total ban of tobacco sales (35%) and promotion of light cigarettes (22%). Never smokers, women, physically active subjects, teetotallers and subjects with lower educational level were more likely to favour stronger measures while no differences were found between age groups. Reimbursement of nicotine replacement therapies was favoured more by current smokers and inactive subjects. CONCLUSION: The vast majority of responders supported the recommended tobacco control policies. Opinions regarding specific interventions vary according to the policy and subjects' characteristics.

A Typology of Identity-Related Crime

Identification is ever more important in the online world, and identity-related crime is a growing problem related to this. This new category of crime is not restricted to high-profile instances of identity 'theft' or identity fraud; it is wide-ranging and complex, ranging from identity deletion to unlawful identity creation and identity 'theft'. Commonly accepted definitions are lacking, thus blurring available statistics, and policies to combat this new crime are piecemeal at best. To assess the real nature and magnitude of identity-related crime, and to be able to discuss how it can be combated, identity-related crime should be understood in all its aspects. As a first key step, this article introduces a typology of identity-related crime, consisting of conceptual, technical and legal categories, that can be used as a comprehensive framework for future research, countermeasures and policies related to identity related crime.

The impotence of price controls: failed attempts to constrain pharmaceutical expenditures in Greece.

BACKGROUND: While the prices of pharmaceuticals are relatively low in Greece, expenditure on them is growing more rapidly than almost anywhere else in the European Union. OBJECTIVE: To describe and explain the rise in drug expenditures through decomposition of the increase into the contribution of changes in prices, in volumes and a product-mix effect. METHODS: The decomposition of the growth in pharmaceutical expenditures in Greece over the period 1991-2006 was conducted using data from the largest social insurance fund (IKA) that covers more than 50% of the population. RESULTS: Real drug spending increased by 285%, despite a 58% decrease in the relative price of pharmaceuticals. The increase in expenditure is mainly attributable to a switch to more innovative, but more expensive, pharmaceuticals, indicated by a product-mix residual of 493% in the decomposition. A rising volume of drugs also plays a role, and this is due to an increase in the number of prescriptions issued per doctor visit, rather than an increase in the number of visits or the population size. CONCLUSIONS: Rising pharmaceutical expenditures are strongly determined by physicians' prescribing behaviour, which is not subject to any monitoring and for which there are no incentives to be cost conscious.

Assistance circulatoire chronique: le point en 2013 [Long-term mechanical circulatory support: where do we stand in 2013?].

With the advent of new technologies, experience with long-term mechanical circulatory support (MCS) is rapidly growing. Candidates to MCS are selected based on concepts, strategies and classifications that are specific to this indication. As results drastically improve, supported by stronger scientific evidence, the trend is towards earlier implantation. An adequate pre-implant follow-up is mandatory in order to avoid missing the best window of opportunity for implantation. While on chronic support, the hemodynamic profile of patients with continuous-flow ventricular assist devices is unique and remarkably influenced by the hydration status. Optimal management of these patients from the pre-implant phase to the long-term support phase requires a multidisciplinary approach that is similar to that already long validated for organ transplantation.