Looking for orders of magnitude : five essays in trade and the environment and economic geography

General Summary Although the chapters of this thesis address a variety of issues, the principal aim is common: test economic ideas in an international economic context. The intention has been to supply empirical findings using the largest suitable data sets and making use of the most appropriate empirical techniques. This thesis can roughly be divided into two parts: the first one, corresponding to the first two chapters, investigates the link between trade and the environment, the second one, the last three chapters, is related to economic geography issues. Environmental problems are omnipresent in the daily press nowadays and one of the arguments put forward is that globalisation causes severe environmental problems through the reallocation of investments and production to countries with less stringent environmental regulations. A measure of the amplitude of this undesirable effect is provided in the first part. The third and the fourth chapters explore the productivity effects of agglomeration. The computed spillover effects between different sectors indicate how cluster-formation might be productivity enhancing. The last chapter is not about how to better understand the world but how to measure it and it was just a great pleasure to work on it. "The Economist" writes every week about the impressive population and economic growth observed in China and India, and everybody agrees that the world's center of gravity has shifted. But by how much and how fast did it shift? An answer is given in the last part, which proposes a global measure for the location of world production and allows to visualize our results in Google Earth. A short summary of each of the five chapters is provided below. The first chapter, entitled "Unraveling the World-Wide Pollution-Haven Effect" investigates the relative strength of the pollution haven effect (PH, comparative advantage in dirty products due to differences in environmental regulation) and the factor endowment effect (FE, comparative advantage in dirty, capital intensive products due to differences in endowments). We compute the pollution content of imports using the IPPS coefficients (for three pollutants, namely biological oxygen demand, sulphur dioxide and toxic pollution intensity for all manufacturing sectors) provided by the World Bank and use a gravity-type framework to isolate the two above mentioned effects. Our study covers 48 countries that can be classified into 29 Southern and 19 Northern countries and uses the lead content of gasoline as proxy for environmental stringency. For North-South trade we find significant PH and FE effects going in the expected, opposite directions and being of similar magnitude. However, when looking at world trade, the effects become very small because of the high North-North trade share, where we have no a priori expectations about the signs of these effects. Therefore popular fears about the trade effects of differences in environmental regulations might by exaggerated. The second chapter is entitled "Is trade bad for the Environment? Decomposing worldwide SO2 emissions, 1990-2000". First we construct a novel and large database containing reasonable estimates of SO2 emission intensities per unit labor that vary across countries, periods and manufacturing sectors. Then we use these original data (covering 31 developed and 31 developing countries) to decompose the worldwide SO2 emissions into the three well known dynamic effects (scale, technique and composition effect). We find that the positive scale (+9,5%) and the negative technique (-12.5%) effect are the main driving forces of emission changes. Composition effects between countries and sectors are smaller, both negative and of similar magnitude (-3.5% each). Given that trade matters via the composition effects this means that trade reduces total emissions. We next construct, in a first experiment, a hypothetical world where no trade happens, i.e. each country produces its imports at home and does no longer produce its exports. The difference between the actual and this no-trade world allows us (under the omission of price effects) to compute a static first-order trade effect. The latter now increases total world emissions because it allows, on average, dirty countries to specialize in dirty products. However, this effect is smaller (3.5%) in 2000 than in 1990 (10%), in line with the negative dynamic composition effect identified in the previous exercise. We then propose a second experiment, comparing effective emissions with the maximum or minimum possible level of SO2 emissions. These hypothetical levels of emissions are obtained by reallocating labour accordingly across sectors within each country (under the country-employment and the world industry-production constraints). Using linear programming techniques, we show that emissions are reduced by 90% with respect to the worst case, but that they could still be reduced further by another 80% if emissions were to be minimized. The findings from this chapter go together with those from chapter one in the sense that trade-induced composition effect do not seem to be the main source of pollution, at least in the recent past. Going now to the economic geography part of this thesis, the third chapter, entitled "A Dynamic Model with Sectoral Agglomeration Effects" consists of a short note that derives the theoretical model estimated in the fourth chapter. The derivation is directly based on the multi-regional framework by Ciccone (2002) but extends it in order to include sectoral disaggregation and a temporal dimension. This allows us formally to write present productivity as a function of past productivity and other contemporaneous and past control variables. The fourth chapter entitled "Sectoral Agglomeration Effects in a Panel of European Regions" takes the final equation derived in chapter three to the data. We investigate the empirical link between density and labour productivity based on regional data (245 NUTS-2 regions over the period 1980-2003). Using dynamic panel techniques allows us to control for the possible endogeneity of density and for region specific effects. We find a positive long run elasticity of density with respect to labour productivity of about 13%. When using data at the sectoral level it seems that positive cross-sector and negative own-sector externalities are present in manufacturing while financial services display strong positive own-sector effects. The fifth and last chapter entitled "Is the World's Economic Center of Gravity Already in Asia?" computes the world economic, demographic and geographic center of gravity for 1975-2004 and compares them. Based on data for the largest cities in the world and using the physical concept of center of mass, we find that the world's economic center of gravity is still located in Europe, even though there is a clear shift towards Asia. To sum up, this thesis makes three main contributions. First, it provides new estimates of orders of magnitudes for the role of trade in the globalisation and environment debate. Second, it computes reliable and disaggregated elasticities for the effect of density on labour productivity in European regions. Third, it allows us, in a geometrically rigorous way, to track the path of the world's economic center of gravity.

Interhemispheric visual integration in humans explored by multimodal brain imaging

Résumé: Les récents progrès techniques de l'imagerie cérébrale non invasives ont permis d'améliorer la compréhension des différents systèmes fonctionnels cérébraux. Les approches multimodales sont devenues indispensables en recherche, afin d'étudier dans sa globalité les différentes caractéristiques de l'activité neuronale qui sont à la base du fonctionnement cérébral. Dans cette étude combinée d'imagerie par résonance magnétique fonctionnelle (IRMf) et d'électroencéphalographie (EEG), nous avons exploité le potentiel de chacune d'elles, soit respectivement la résolution spatiale et temporelle élevée. Les processus cognitifs, de perception et de mouvement nécessitent le recrutement d'ensembles neuronaux. Dans la première partie de cette thèse nous étudions, grâce à la combinaison des techniques IRMf et EEG, la réponse des aires visuelles lors d'une stimulation qui demande le regroupement d'éléments cohérents appartenant aux deux hémi-champs visuels pour en faire une seule image. Nous utilisons une mesure de synchronisation (EEG de cohérence) comme quantification de l'intégration spatiale inter-hémisphérique et la réponse BOLD (Blood Oxygenation Level Dependent) pour évaluer l'activité cérébrale qui en résulte. L'augmentation de la cohérence de l'EEG dans la bande beta-gamma mesurée au niveau des électrodes occipitales et sa corrélation linéaire avec la réponse BOLD dans les aires de VP/V4, reflète et visualise un ensemble neuronal synchronisé qui est vraisemblablement impliqué dans le regroupement spatial visuel. Ces résultats nous ont permis d'étendre la recherche à l'étude de l'impact que le contenu en fréquence des stimuli a sur la synchronisation. Avec la même approche, nous avons donc identifié les réseaux qui montrent une sensibilité différente à l'intégration des caractéristiques globales ou détaillées des images. En particulier, les données montrent que l'implication des réseaux visuels ventral et dorsal est modulée par le contenu en fréquence des stimuli. Dans la deuxième partie nous avons a testé l'hypothèse que l'augmentation de l'activité cérébrale pendant le processus de regroupement inter-hémisphérique dépend de l'activité des axones calleux qui relient les aires visuelles. Comme le Corps Calleux présente une maturation progressive pendant les deux premières décennies, nous avons analysé le développement de la fonction d'intégration spatiale chez des enfants âgés de 7 à 13 ans et le rôle de la myelinisation des fibres calleuses dans la maturation de l'activité visuelle. Nous avons combiné l'IRMf et la technique de MTI (Magnetization Transfer Imaging) afin de suivre les signes de maturation cérébrale respectivement sous l'aspect fonctionnel et morphologique (myelinisation). Chez lés enfants, les activations associées au processus d'intégration entre les hémi-champs visuels sont, comme chez l'adulte, localisées dans le réseau ventral mais se limitent à une zone plus restreinte. La forte corrélation que le signal BOLD montre avec la myelinisation des fibres du splenium est le signe de la dépendance entre la maturation des fonctions visuelles de haut niveau et celle des connections cortico-corticales. Abstract: Recent advances in non-invasive brain imaging allow the visualization of the different aspects of complex brain dynamics. The approaches based on a combination of imaging techniques facilitate the investigation and the link of multiple aspects of information processing. They are getting a leading tool for understanding the neural basis of various brain functions. Perception, motion, and cognition involve the formation of cooperative neuronal assemblies distributed over the cerebral cortex. In this research, we explore the characteristics of interhemispheric assemblies in the visual brain by taking advantage of the complementary characteristics provided by EEG (electroencephalography) and fMRI (Functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging) techniques. These are the high temporal resolution for EEG and high spatial resolution for fMRI. In the first part of this thesis we investigate the response of the visual areas to the interhemispheric perceptual grouping task. We use EEG coherence as a measure of synchronization and BOLD (Blood Oxygenar tion Level Dependent) response as a measure of the related brain activation. The increase of the interhemispheric EEG coherence restricted to the occipital electrodes and to the EEG beta band and its linear relation to the BOLD responses in VP/V4 area points to a trans-hemispheric synchronous neuronal assembly involved in early perceptual grouping. This result encouraged us to explore the formation of synchronous trans-hemispheric networks induced by the stimuli of various spatial frequencies with this multimodal approach. We have found the involvement of ventral and medio-dorsal visual networks modulated by the spatial frequency content of the stimulus. Thus, based on the combination of EEG coherence and fMRI BOLD data, we have identified visual networks with different sensitivity to integrating low vs. high spatial frequencies. In the second part of this work we test the hypothesis that the increase of brain activity during perceptual grouping depends on the activity of callosal axons interconnecting the visual areas that are involved. To this end, in children of 7-13 years, we investigated functional (functional activation with fMRI) and morphological (myelination of the corpus callosum with Magnetization Transfer Imaging (MTI)) aspects of spatial integration. In children, the activation associated with the spatial integration across visual fields was localized in visual ventral stream and limited to a part of the area activated in adults. The strong correlation between individual BOLD responses in .this area and the myelination of the splenial system of fibers points to myelination as a significant factor in the development of the spatial integration ability.

Inversion of multiple intersecting high-resolution crosshole GPR profiles for hydrological characterization at the Boise Hydrogeophysical Research Site

The integration of geophysical data into the subsurface characterization problem has been shown in many cases to significantly improve hydrological knowledge by providing information at spatial scales and locations that is unattainable using conventional hydrological measurement techniques. In particular, crosshole ground-penetrating radar (GPR) tomography has shown much promise in hydrology because of its ability to provide highly detailed images of subsurface radar wave velocity, which is strongly linked to soil water content. Here, we develop and demonstrate a procedure for inverting together multiple crosshole GPR data sets in order to characterize the spatial distribution of radar wave velocity below the water table at the Boise Hydrogeophysical Research Site (BHRS) near Boise, Idaho, USA. Specifically, we jointly invert 31 intersecting crosshole GPR profiles to obtain a highly resolved and consistent radar velocity model along the various profile directions. The model is found to be strongly correlated with complementary neutron porosity-log data and is further corroborated by larger-scale structural information at the BHRS. This work is an important prerequisite to using crosshole GPR data together with existing hydrological measurements for improved groundwater flow and contaminant transport modeling.

Simulated-annealing-based conditional simulation for the local-scale characterization of heterogeneous aquifers

Simulated-annealing-based conditional simulations provide a flexible means of quantitatively integrating diverse types of subsurface data. Although such techniques are being increasingly used in hydrocarbon reservoir characterization studies, their potential in environmental, engineering and hydrological investigations is still largely unexploited. Here, we introduce a novel simulated annealing (SA) algorithm geared towards the integration of high-resolution geophysical and hydrological data which, compared to more conventional approaches, provides significant advancements in the way that large-scale structural information in the geophysical data is accounted for. Model perturbations in the annealing procedure are made by drawing from a probability distribution for the target parameter conditioned to the geophysical data. This is the only place where geophysical information is utilized in our algorithm, which is in marked contrast to other approaches where model perturbations are made through the swapping of values in the simulation grid and agreement with soft data is enforced through a correlation coefficient constraint. Another major feature of our algorithm is the way in which available geostatistical information is utilized. Instead of constraining realizations to match a parametric target covariance model over a wide range of spatial lags, we constrain the realizations only at smaller lags where the available geophysical data cannot provide enough information. Thus we allow the larger-scale subsurface features resolved by the geophysical data to have much more due control on the output realizations. Further, since the only component of the SA objective function required in our approach is a covariance constraint at small lags, our method has improved convergence and computational efficiency over more traditional methods. Here, we present the results of applying our algorithm to the integration of porosity log and tomographic crosshole georadar data to generate stochastic realizations of the local-scale porosity structure. Our procedure is first tested on a synthetic data set, and then applied to data collected at the Boise Hydrogeophysical Research Site.

Fire management, climate change and their interacting effects on birds in complex Mediterranean landscapes: dynamic distribution modelling of an early-successional species - the near-threatened Dartford Warbler (Sylvia undata)

The current challenge in a context of major environmental changes is to anticipate the responses of species to future landscape and climate scenarios. In the Mediterranean basin, climate change is one the most powerful driving forces of fire dynamics, with fire frequency and impact having markedly increased in recent years. Species distribution modelling plays a fundamental role in this challenge, but better integration of available ecological knowledge is needed to adequately guide conservation efforts. Here, we quantified changes in habitat suitability of an early-succession bird in Catalonia, the Dartford Warbler (Sylvia undata) ― globally evaluated as Near Threatened in the IUCN Red List. We assessed potential changes in species distributions between 2000 and 2050 under different fire management and climate change scenarios and described landscape dynamics using a spatially-explicit fire-succession model that simulates fire impacts in the landscape and post-fire regeneration (MEDFIRE model). Dartford Warbler occurrence data were acquired at two different spatial scales from: 1) the Atlas of European Breeding Birds (EBCC) and 2) Catalan Breeding Bird Atlas (CBBA). Habitat suitability was modelled using five widely-used modelling techniques in an ensemble forecasting framework. Our results indicated considerable habitat suitability losses (ranging between 47% and 57% in baseline scenarios), which were modulated to a large extent by fire regime changes derived from fire management policies and climate changes. Such result highlighted the need for taking the spatial interaction between climate changes, fire-mediated landscape dynamics and fire management policies into account for coherently anticipating habitat suitability changes of early succession bird species. We conclude that fire management programs need to be integrated into conservation plans to effectively preserve sparsely forested and early succession habitats and their associated species in the face of global environmental change.

Evaluation of steroidomics by liquid chromatography hyphenated to mass spectrometry as a powerful analytical strategy for measuring human steroid perturbations.

This review presents the evolution of steroid analytical techniques, including gas chromatography coupled to mass spectrometry (GC-MS), immunoassay (IA) and targeted liquid chromatography coupled to mass spectrometry (LC-MS), and it evaluates the potential of extended steroid profiles by a metabolomics-based approach, namely steroidomics. Steroids regulate essential biological functions including growth and reproduction, and perturbations of the steroid homeostasis can generate serious physiological issues; therefore, specific and sensitive methods have been developed to measure steroid concentrations. GC-MS measuring several steroids simultaneously was considered the first historical standard method for analysis. Steroids were then quantified by immunoassay, allowing a higher throughput; however, major drawbacks included the measurement of a single compound instead of a panel and cross-reactivity reactions. Targeted LC-MS methods with selected reaction monitoring (SRM) were then introduced for quantifying a small steroid subset without the problems of cross-reactivity. The next step was the integration of metabolomic approaches in the context of steroid analyses. As metabolomics tends to identify and quantify all the metabolites (i.e., the metabolome) in a specific system, appropriate strategies were proposed for discovering new biomarkers. Steroidomics, defined as the untargeted analysis of the steroid content in a sample, was implemented in several fields, including doping analysis, clinical studies, in vivo or in vitro toxicology assays, and more. This review discusses the current analytical methods for assessing steroid changes and compares them to steroidomics. Steroids, their pathways, their implications in diseases and the biological matrices in which they are analysed will first be described. Then, the different analytical strategies will be presented with a focus on their ability to obtain relevant information on the steroid pattern. The future technical requirements for improving steroid analysis will also be presented.