Inferring landscape effects on dispersal from genetic distances: how far can we go?

Functional connectivity affects demography and gene dynamics in fragmented populations. Besides species-specific dispersal ability, the connectivity between local populations is affected by the landscape elements encountered during dispersal. Documenting these effects is thus a central issue for the conservation and management of fragmented populations. In this study, we compare the power and accuracy of three methods (partial correlations, regressions and Approximate Bayesian Computations) that use genetic distances to infer the effect of landscape upon dispersal. We use stochastic individual-based simulations of fragmented populations surrounded by landscape elements that differ in their permeability to dispersal. The power and accuracy of all three methods are good when there is a strong contrast between the permeability of different landscape elements. The power and accuracy can be further improved by restricting analyses to adjacent pairs of populations. Landscape elements that strongly impede dispersal are the easiest to identify. However, power and accuracy decrease drastically when landscape complexity increases and the contrast between the permeability of landscape elements decreases. We provide guidelines for future studies and underline the needs to evaluate or develop approaches that are more powerful.

Additional data for nuclear DNA give new insights into the phylogenetic position of Sorex granarius within the Sorex araneus group.

Many species contain genetic lineages that are phylogenetically intermixed with those of other species. In the Sorex araneus group, previous results based on mtDNA and Y chromosome sequence data showed an incongruent position of Sorex granarius within this group. In this study, we explored the relationship between species within the S. araneus group, aiming to resolve the particular position of S. granarius. In this context, we sequenced a total of 2447 base pairs (bp) of X-linked and nuclear genes from 47 individuals of the S. araneus group. The same taxa were also analyzed within a Bayesian framework with nine autosomal microsatellites. These analyses revealed that all markers apart from mtDNA showed similar patterns, suggesting that the problematic position of S. granarius is best explained by an incongruent behavior by mtDNA. Given their close phylogenetic relationship and their close geographic distribution, the most likely explanation for this pattern is past mtDNA introgression from S. araneus race Carlit to S. granarius.

Efficacy, tolerability and risk factors for virological failure of darunavir-based therapy for treatment-experienced HIV-infected patients: the Swiss HIV Cohort Study.

OBJECTIVES: Darunavir was designed for activity against HIV resistant to other protease inhibitors (PIs). We assessed the efficacy, tolerability and risk factors for virological failure of darunavir for treatment-experienced patients seen in clinical practice. METHODS: We included all patients in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study starting darunavir after recording a viral load above 1000 HIV-1 RNA copies/mL given prior exposure to both PIs and nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors. We followed these patients for up to 72 weeks, assessed virological failure using different loss of virological response algorithms and evaluated risk factors for virological failure using a Bayesian method to fit discrete Cox proportional hazard models. RESULTS: Among 130 treatment-experienced patients starting darunavir, the median age was 47 years, the median duration of HIV infection was 16 years, and 82% received mono or dual antiretroviral therapy before starting highly active antiretroviral therapy. During a median patient follow-up period of 45 weeks, 17% of patients stopped taking darunavir after a median exposure of 20 weeks. In patients followed beyond 48 weeks, the rate of virological failure at 48 weeks was at most 20%. Virological failure was more likely where patients had previously failed on both amprenavir and saquinavir and as the number of previously failed PI regimens increased. CONCLUSIONS: As a component of therapy for treatment-experienced patients, darunavir can achieve a similar efficacy and tolerability in clinical practice to that seen in clinical trials. Clinicians should consider whether a patient has failed on both amprenavir and saquinavir and the number of failed PI regimens before prescribing darunavir.

Evolutionary history of the greater white-toothed shrew (Crocidura russula) inferred from analysis of mtDNA, Y, and X chromosome markers.

We investigate the evolutionary history of the greater white-toothed shrew across its distribution in northern Africa and mainland Europe using sex-specific (mtDNA and Y chromosome) and biparental (X chromosome) markers. All three loci confirm a large divergence between eastern (Tunisia and Sardinia) and western (Morocco and mainland Europe) lineages, and application of a molecular clock to mtDNA divergence estimates indicates a more ancient separation (2.25 M yr ago) than described by some previous studies, supporting claims for taxonomic revision. Moroccan ancestry for the mainland European population is inconclusive from phylogenetic trees, but is supported by greater nucleotide diversity and a more ancient population expansion in Morocco than in Europe. Signatures of rapid population expansion in mtDNA, combined with low X and Y chromosome diversity, suggest a single colonization of mainland Europe by a small number of Moroccan shrews >38 K yr ago. This study illustrates that multilocus genetic analyses can facilitate the interpretation of species' evolutionary history but that phylogeographic inference using X and Y chromosomes is restricted by low levels of observed polymorphism.

ABCtoolbox: a versatile toolkit for approximate Bayesian computations.

BACKGROUND: The estimation of demographic parameters from genetic data often requires the computation of likelihoods. However, the likelihood function is computationally intractable for many realistic evolutionary models, and the use of Bayesian inference has therefore been limited to very simple models. The situation changed recently with the advent of Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) algorithms allowing one to obtain parameter posterior distributions based on simulations not requiring likelihood computations. RESULTS: Here we present ABCtoolbox, a series of open source programs to perform Approximate Bayesian Computations (ABC). It implements various ABC algorithms including rejection sampling, MCMC without likelihood, a Particle-based sampler and ABC-GLM. ABCtoolbox is bundled with, but not limited to, a program that allows parameter inference in a population genetics context and the simultaneous use of different types of markers with different ploidy levels. In addition, ABCtoolbox can also interact with most simulation and summary statistics computation programs. The usability of the ABCtoolbox is demonstrated by inferring the evolutionary history of two evolutionary lineages of Microtus arvalis. Using nuclear microsatellites and mitochondrial sequence data in the same estimation procedure enabled us to infer sex-specific population sizes and migration rates and to find that males show smaller population sizes but much higher levels of migration than females. CONCLUSION: ABCtoolbox allows a user to perform all the necessary steps of a full ABC analysis, from parameter sampling from prior distributions, data simulations, computation of summary statistics, estimation of posterior distributions, model choice, validation of the estimation procedure, and visualization of the results.

15-OR: Multi-phase postmortem CT angiography of pulmonary embolism: technique-related artefacts or real findings?

Multi-phase postmortem CT angiography (MPMCTA) is recognized as a valuable tool to explore the vascular system, with higher sensitivity than conventional autopsy. However, a limitation is the impossibility to diagnose pulmonary embolism (PE) due to post-mortem blood clots situated in pulmonary arteries. The purpose of this study was to explore an eventual possibility to distinguish between real PE and artefacts mimicking PE. Our study included 416 medico-legal cases. All of them underwent MPMCTA, conventional autopsy and histological examination. We selected cases presenting arterial luminal filling defects in the pulmonary arteries. Their radiological interpretation was confronted to the one of autopsy and histological examination. We also investigated an eventual correlation between artefacts in pulmonary arteries and those in other parts of the vascular system. In 123 cases, filling defects of pulmonary arteries were described during MPMCTA. In 57 cases, this was interpreted as artefact and in 4 cases as suspected PE. In 62 cases only a differential diagnosis was made. Autopsy and histology could clearly identify the artefacts as such. Only one case of real PE was radiologically misinterpreted as artefact. In 6 of the 62 cases with no interpretation a PE was diagnosed. In 3 out of 4 suspected cases, PE was confirmed. We found out that filling defects in pulmonary arteries are nearly always associated to other vascular artefacts. Therefore, we suggest following some rules for radiological interpretation in order to allow a reliable diagnosis of pulmonary embolism after MPMCTA.

Global invasion history of the fire ant Solenopsis invicta.

The fire ant Solenopsis invicta is a significant pest that was inadvertently introduced into the southern United States almost a century ago and more recently into California and other regions of the world. An assessment of genetic variation at a diverse set of molecular markers in 2144 fire ant colonies from 75 geographic sites worldwide revealed that at least nine separate introductions of S. invicta have occurred into newly invaded areas and that the main southern U.S. population is probably the source of all but one of these introductions. The sole exception involves a putative serial invasion from the southern United States to California to Taiwan. These results illustrate in stark fashion a severe negative consequence of an increasingly massive and interconnected global trade and travel system.

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The quality of environmental data analysis and propagation of errors are heavily affected by the representativity of the initial sampling design [CRE 93, DEU 97, KAN 04a, LEN 06, MUL07]. Geostatistical methods such as kriging are related to field samples, whose spatial distribution is crucial for the correct detection of the phenomena. Literature about the design of environmental monitoring networks (MN) is widespread and several interesting books have recently been published [GRU 06, LEN 06, MUL 07] in order to clarify the basic principles of spatial sampling design (monitoring networks optimization) based on Support Vector Machines was proposed. Nonetheless, modelers often receive real data coming from environmental monitoring networks that suffer from problems of non-homogenity (clustering). Clustering can be related to the preferential sampling or to the impossibility of reaching certain regions.

On solving fair exchange and related distributed problems in Byzantine environments

Abstract The solvability of the problem of fair exchange in a synchronous system subject to Byzantine failures is investigated in this work. The fair exchange problem arises when a group of processes are required to exchange digital items in a fair manner, which means that either each process obtains the item it was expecting or no process obtains any information on, the inputs of others. After introducing a novel specification of fair exchange that clearly separates safety and liveness, we give an overview of the difficulty of solving such a problem in the context of a fully-connected topology. On one hand, we show that no solution to fair exchange exists in the absence of an identified process that every process can trust a priori; on the other, a well-known solution to fair exchange relying on a trusted third party is recalled. These two results lead us to complete our system model with a flexible representation of the notion of trust. We then show that fair exchange is solvable if and only if a connectivity condition, named the reachable majority condition, is satisfied. The necessity of the condition is proven by an impossibility result and its sufficiency by presenting a general solution to fair exchange relying on a set of trusted processes. The focus is then turned towards a specific network topology in order to provide a fully decentralized, yet realistic, solution to fair exchange. The general solution mentioned above is optimized by reducing the computational load assumed by trusted processes as far as possible. Accordingly, our fair exchange protocol relies on trusted tamperproof modules that have limited communication abilities and are only required in key steps of the algorithm. This modular solution is then implemented in the context of a pedagogical application developed for illustrating and apprehending the complexity of fair exchange. This application, which also includes the implementation of a wide range of Byzantine behaviors, allows executions of the algorithm to be set up and monitored through a graphical display. Surprisingly, some of our results on fair exchange seem contradictory with those found in the literature of secure multiparty computation, a problem from the field of modern cryptography, although the two problems have much in common. Both problems are closely related to the notion of trusted third party, but their approaches and descriptions differ greatly. By introducing a common specification framework, a comparison is proposed in order to clarify their differences and the possible origins of the confusion between them. This leads us to introduce the problem of generalized fair computation, a generalization of fair exchange. Finally, a solution to this new problem is given by generalizing our modular solution to fair exchange

Decoupled evolution of floral traits and climatic preferences in a clade of Neotropical Gesneriaceae.

BACKGROUND: Major factors influencing the phenotypic diversity of a lineage can be recognized by characterizing the extent and mode of trait evolution between related species. Here, we compared the evolutionary dynamics of traits associated with floral morphology and climatic preferences in a clade composed of the genera Codonanthopsis, Codonanthe and Nematanthus (Gesneriaceae). To test the mode and specific components that lead to phenotypic diversity in this group, we performed a Bayesian phylogenetic analysis of combined nuclear and plastid DNA sequences and modeled the evolution of quantitative traits related to flower shape and size and to climatic preferences. We propose an alternative approach to display graphically the complex dynamics of trait evolution along a phylogenetic tree using a wide range of evolutionary scenarios. RESULTS: Our results demonstrated heterogeneous trait evolution. Floral shapes displaced into separate regimes selected by the different pollinator types (hummingbirds versus insects), while floral size underwent a clade-specific evolution. Rates of evolution were higher for the clade that is hummingbird pollinated and experienced flower resupination, compared with species pollinated by bees, suggesting a relevant role of plant-pollinator interactions in lowland rainforest. The evolution of temperature preferences is best explained by a model with distinct selective regimes between the Brazilian Atlantic Forest and the other biomes, whereas differentiation along the precipitation axis was characterized by higher rates, compared with temperature, and no regime or clade-specific patterns. CONCLUSIONS: Our study shows different selective regimes and clade-specific patterns in the evolution of morphological and climatic components during the diversification of Neotropical species. Our new graphical visualization tool allows the representation of trait trajectories under parameter-rich models, thus contributing to a better understanding of complex evolutionary dynamics.

Coev-web: a web platform designed to simulate and evaluate coevolving positions along a phylogenetic tree.

BACKGROUND: Available methods to simulate nucleotide or amino acid data typically use Markov models to simulate each position independently. These approaches are not appropriate to assess the performance of combinatorial and probabilistic methods that look for coevolving positions in nucleotide or amino acid sequences. RESULTS: We have developed a web-based platform that gives a user-friendly access to two phylogenetic-based methods implementing the Coev model: the evaluation of coevolving scores and the simulation of coevolving positions. We have also extended the capabilities of the Coev model to allow for the generalization of the alphabet used in the Markov model, which can now analyse both nucleotide and amino acid data sets. The simulation of coevolving positions is novel and builds upon the developments of the Coev model. It allows user to simulate pairs of dependent nucleotide or amino acid positions. CONCLUSIONS: The main focus of our paper is the new simulation method we present for coevolving positions. The implementation of this method is embedded within the web platform Coev-web that is freely accessible at http://coev.vital-it.ch/, and was tested in most modern web browsers.

Statistical hypothesis testing and common misinterpretations: should we abandon p-value in forensic science applications?

Many people regard the concept of hypothesis testing as fundamental to inferential statistics. Various schools of thought, in particular frequentist and Bayesian, have promoted radically different solutions for taking a decision about the plausibility of competing hypotheses. Comprehensive philosophical comparisons about their advantages and drawbacks are widely available and continue to span over large debates in the literature. More recently, controversial discussion was initiated by an editorial decision of a scientific journal [1] to refuse any paper submitted for publication containing null hypothesis testing procedures. Since the large majority of papers published in forensic journals propose the evaluation of statistical evidence based on the so called p-values, it is of interest to expose the discussion of this journal's decision within the forensic science community. This paper aims to provide forensic science researchers with a primer on the main concepts and their implications for making informed methodological choices.

Worldwide trends in diabetes since 1980: a pooled analysis of 751 population-based studies with 4.4 million participants.

One of the global targets for non-communicable diseases is to halt, by 2025, the rise in the age-standardised adult prevalence of diabetes at its 2010 levels. We aimed to estimate worldwide trends in diabetes, how likely it is for countries to achieve the global target, and how changes in prevalence, together with population growth and ageing, are affecting the number of adults with diabetes. We pooled data from population-based studies that had collected data on diabetes through measurement of its biomarkers. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends in diabetes prevalence-defined as fasting plasma glucose of 7.0 mmol/L or higher, or history of diagnosis with diabetes, or use of insulin or oral hypoglycaemic drugs-in 200 countries and territories in 21 regions, by sex and from 1980 to 2014. We also calculated the posterior probability of meeting the global diabetes target if post-2000 trends continue. We used data from 751 studies including 4,372,000 adults from 146 of the 200 countries we make estimates for. Global age-standardised diabetes prevalence increased from 4.3% (95% credible interval 2.4-7.0) in 1980 to 9.0% (7.2-11.1) in 2014 in men, and from 5.0% (2.9-7.9) to 7.9% (6.4-9.7) in women. The number of adults with diabetes in the world increased from 108 million in 1980 to 422 million in 2014 (28.5% due to the rise in prevalence, 39.7% due to population growth and ageing, and 31.8% due to interaction of these two factors). Age-standardised adult diabetes prevalence in 2014 was lowest in northwestern Europe, and highest in Polynesia and Micronesia, at nearly 25%, followed by Melanesia and the Middle East and north Africa. Between 1980 and 2014 there was little change in age-standardised diabetes prevalence in adult women in continental western Europe, although crude prevalence rose because of ageing of the population. By contrast, age-standardised adult prevalence rose by 15 percentage points in men and women in Polynesia and Micronesia. In 2014, American Samoa had the highest national prevalence of diabetes (>30% in both sexes), with age-standardised adult prevalence also higher than 25% in some other islands in Polynesia and Micronesia. If post-2000 trends continue, the probability of meeting the global target of halting the rise in the prevalence of diabetes by 2025 at the 2010 level worldwide is lower than 1% for men and is 1% for women. Only nine countries for men and 29 countries for women, mostly in western Europe, have a 50% or higher probability of meeting the global target. Since 1980, age-standardised diabetes prevalence in adults has increased, or at best remained unchanged, in every country. Together with population growth and ageing, this rise has led to a near quadrupling of the number of adults with diabetes worldwide. The burden of diabetes, both in terms of prevalence and number of adults affected, has increased faster in low-income and middle-income countries than in high-income countries. Wellcome Trust.