Le coup de chaleur d'exercice [Exertional heatstroke].

Exertional heatstroke is defined by an increase of core body temperature above 40 degrees C and neurological symptoms in association with exercise. It is related to excessive heat production, which overwhelms the endogenous mechanisms of thermoregulation. It is observed during intense physical activity in a hot and humid environment, most commonly in untrained subjects poorly adapted to such conditions. Clinical manifestations of exertional heatstroke are related to the induction of a systemic inflammatory response and a disseminated intravascular coagulation triggered by heat stress, which may lead to multiorgan dysfunction and death. Early management through rapid cooling is mandatory to prevent the devastating consequences of exertional heatstroke.

An alternative socio-ecological strategy? International Trade Unions' engagement with climate change

In the context of a global ecological crisis, it is an important move when trade unions turn to environmentalism. Yet, the form that this environmentalism takes is often overlooked. This is especially the case with international trade unions. Based on an empirical study of international trade unions' engagement with the climate change issue, this article argues that international trade unions follow three different (and partially conflicting) strategies. I label these strategies as 'deliberative', 'collaborative growth' and 'socialist', and I examine each in turn. I argue that such analysis is important if we want to identify the potential for transforming the social relations of production that are at the root of the current climate crisis, and for identifying an alternative socio-ecological strategy.

Low dispersing species : population genetic processes in space and time : the genus "Trochulus" (Gastropoda: Hygromiidae) as a case study

RÉSUMÉ Une espèce est rarement composée d'une population unique. Parce que les individus ont des capacités de dispersion limitées et que les paysages sont des mosaïques d'habitats, la plupart des espèces sont plutôt composées de sous-populations connectées par la migration. Cette variation spatiale influence directement la distribution de la variabilité génétique dans et entre les populations. Durant ce travail, nous avons abordé certains des processus populationnels qui ont joué un rôle supposé dans l'apparition de nouvelles espèces au sein du genre Trochulus. Plus précisément, nous avons tenté d'évaluer les impacts respectifs de l'isolement passé (facteurs historiques) et présent (facteurs locaux). Nous avons d'abord pu montrer que les faibles capacités de dispersion des escargots terrestres ont directement influencé leur histoire évolutive à toutes les échelles spatiales et temporelles. En réduisant l'effet homogénéisant de la migration, une faible dispersion maintient dans les populations les traces génétiques d'évènements passés. A l'échelle de la distribution globale de Trochulus villosus, ces traces ont permis de reconstruire une histoire faite d'isolements et d'expansions de populations. En combinant des données génétiques avec une modélisation de la niche climatique passée, il a été possible de proposer un scénario significativement meilleur que toutes les hypothèses alternatives que nous avons testées. A l'échelle locale par contre, l'héritage historique est difficile à distinguer de la dynamique actuelle. Ce fut le cas des lignées mitochondriales du complexe sericeus-hispidus : les deux principales lignées étaient phylogénétiquement éloignées, avaient eu des démographies passées différentes et corrélaient avec des différences morphologiques. D'un autre côté, le flux de gène nucléaire était fort, contredisant l'idée de deux espèces cryptiques isolées reproductivement. Pour pouvoir conclure à la présence ou non de deux espèces, il nous a manqué des informations locales sur la dynamique des populations et les conditions écologiques que l'on trouve dans la région d'étude. Enfin, nous avons pu souligner que la connectivité entre populations d'escargots est soumise à la qualité des habitats et à leur organisation spatiale. Les escargots sont dépendants d'un habitat et s'y adaptent, comme l'indiquent la présence de «poils » uniquement sur la coquille d'espèces vivant dans des habitats humides ou la corrélation entre morphologie et habitat au sein du complexe sericeus-hispidus. Logiquement donc, les escargots migrent préférentiellement au travers d'habitats favorables comme l'a montré la réduction de flux de gènes au travers des prairies chez T. villosus (une espèce forestière). De ces données, nous pouvons supposer que les populations d'escargots en particulier, et des espèces à faible dispersion en général, ont de fortes chances d'être affectées par les changements climatiques, avec de probables implications pour leurs histoires évolutives. SUMMARY : Species rarely consists in a single population. Because individuals have limited dispersal abilities, because landscapes are habitat patchworks, most species are made of several subpopulations connected by migration. This spatial variation has consequences on the distribution of genetic diversity within and between populations, creating a structure among the populations. During the present work, we investigated some of the population processes assumed to have played an important role on the speciation within the genus Trochulus. More specifically, we questioned the respective impacts of past (historical factors) or present (local factors) population isolations. We first could show that the poor dispersal abilities of land snails have had profound impacts on their evolutionary histories at all spatial and temporal scales. Low dispersal maintains a strong signature of past events in the populations by minimising the homogenising effects of geneflow. At the scale of Trochulus villosus global distribution, they allowed to retrieve the detailed history of this species population isolations and expansions. Combining a large genetic dataset with paleo-climatic niche modelling ended up with a historical scenario significantly better than all traditional alternatives we tested. At local scale on the contrary, past events become difficult to tease apart from ongoing processes. This was the case for the divergent mitochondria) lineages within the sericeus-hispidus complex: the two principal lineages appeared to be phylogenetically distant, to have experienced different demographic histories and to correlate with morphological differences. On the other hand, nuclear (present day) geneflow was high, contradicting the idea of two reproductively isolated cryptic species. Information on the local population dynamics and environmental conditions are lacking to be able to decide whether past isolation has indeed resulted here in new species. Finally, we emphasised the importance of the habitat types present in a landscape as well as their spatial organisation for the population connectivity of land snails. These species are tightly dependent on a habitat and adapt to it as shown by thé occurrence of hair-like structures only in species living in humid environments or by the correlation between shell morphology and habitat in the sericeus-hispidus complex. As a result, land snails preferentially migrate through favourable habitats: Trochulus villosus, a forest species, had its geneflow significantly reduced across meadows. From these data, we can hypothesise that the populations of land snails in particular and of low dispersing species in general are likely to be strongly affected by the ongoing climate changes, with potential major consequences on their evolutionary histories.

21st century climate change: where has all the geomorphology gone?

This Commentary draws together recently published work relating to the relationship between climate change and geomorphology to address the surprising observation that geomorphic work seems to have had little impact upon the work of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change. However, recent papers show that methodological innovation has allowed geomorphological reconstruction over timescales highly relevant to late 20th century and 21st century climate change. In turn, these and other developments are allowing links to be made between climatic variability and geomorphology, to begin to predict geomorphic futures and also to appreciate the role that geomorphic processes play in the flux of carbon and the carbon cycle.

Movement, impacts and management of plant distributions in response to climate change: insights from invasions

A major challenge in this era of rapid climate change is to predict changes in species distributions and their impacts on ecosystems, and, if necessary, to recommend management strategies for maintenance of biodiversity or ecosystem services. Biological invasions, studied in most biomes of the world, can provide useful analogs for some of the ecological consequences of species distribution shifts in response to climate change. Invasions illustrate the adaptive and interactive responses that can occur when species are confronted with new environmental conditions. Invasion ecology complements climate change research and provides insights into the following questions: i) how will species distributions respond to climate change? ii) how will species movement affect recipient ecosystems? and iii) should we, and if so how can we, manage species and ecosystems in the face of climate change? Invasion ecology demonstrates that a trait-based approach can help to predict spread speeds and impacts on ecosystems, and has the potential to predict climate change impacts on species ranges and recipient ecosystems. However, there is a need to analyse traits in the context of life-history and demography, the stage in the colonisation process (e.g., spread, establishment or impact), the distribution of suitable habitats in the landscape, and the novel abiotic and biotic conditions under which those traits are expressed. As is the case with climate change, invasion ecology is embedded within complex societal goals. Both disciplines converge on similar questions of "when to intervene?" and "what to do?" which call for a better understanding of the ecological processes and social values associated with changing ecosystems.

Structure et évolution thermique de la croûte supérieure des chaînes de subduction : approches thermologique et modélisation numérique, dans les North Cascades (U.S.A) et de la zone de faille Motagua (Guatemala)

Cette thèse cible l'étude de la structure thermique de la croûte supérieure (<10km) dans les arcs magmatiques continentaux, et son influence sur l'enregistrement thermochronologique de leur exhumation et de leur évolution topographique. Nous portons notre regard sur deux chaînes de montagne appartenant aux Cordillères Américaines : Les Cascades Nord (USA) et la zone de faille Motagua (Guatemala). L'approche utilisée est axée sur la thermochronologie (U-Th-Sm)/He sur apatite et zircon, couplée avec la modélisation numérique de la structure thermique de la croûte. Nous mettons en évidence la variabilité à la fois spatiale et temporelle du gradient géothermique, et attirons l'attention du lecteur sur l'importance de prendre en compte la multitude des processus géologiques perturbant la structure thermique dans les chaînes de type cordillère, c'est à dire formées lors de la subduction océanique sous un continent.Une nouvelle approche est ainsi développée pour étudier et contraindre la perturbation thermique autour des chambres magmatiques. Deux profiles âge-elevation (U-Th-Sm)/He sur apatite et zircon, ont été collectées 7 km au sud du batholithe de Chilliwack, Cascades Nord. Les résultats montrent une variabilité spatiale et temporelle du gradient géothermique lors de l'emplacement magmatique qui peut être contrainte et séparé de l'exhumation. Durant l'emplacement de l'intrusion, la perturbation thermique y atteint un état d'équilibre (-80-100 °C/km) qui est fonction du flux de magma et de ia distance à la source du magma, puis rejoint 40 °C/km à la fin du processus d'emplacement magmatique.Quelques nouvelles données (U-Th)/He, replacées dans une compilation des données existantes dans les Cascades Nord, indiquent une vitesse d'exhumation constante (-100 m/Ma) dans le temps et l'espace entre 35 Ma et 2 Ma, associée à un soulèvement uniforme de la chaîne contrôlé par l'emplacement de magma dans la croûte durant toute l'activité de l'arc. Par contre, après ~2 Ma, le versant humide de la chaîne est affecté par une accélération des taux d'exhumation, jusqu'à 3 km de croûte y sont érodés. Les glaciations ont un triple effet sur l'érosion de cette chaîne: (1) augmentation des vitesses d'érosion, d'exhumation et de soulèvement la où les précipitations sont suffisantes, (2) limitation de l'altitude contrôlé par la position de Γ Ε LA, (3) élargissement du versant humide et contraction du versant aride de la chaîne.Les modifications des réseaux de drainage sont des processus de surface souvent sous-estimés au profil d'événements climatiques ou tectoniques. Nous proposons une nouvelle approche couplant une analyse géomorphologique, des données thermochronologiques de basse température ((U-Th-Sm)/He sur apatite et zircon), et l'utilisation de modélisation numérique thermo-cinématique pour les mettre en évidence et les dater; nous testons cette approche sur la gorge de la Skagit river dans les North Cascades.De nouvelles données (U-Th)/He sur zircons, complétant les données existantes, montrent que le déplacement horizontal le long de la faille transformante continentale Motagua, la limite des plaques Caraïbe/Amérique du Nord, a juxtaposé un bloc froid, le bloc Maya (s.s.), contre un bloque chaud, le bloc Chortis (s.s.) originellement en position d'arc. En plus de donner des gammes d'âges thermochronologiques très différents des deux côtés de la faille, le déplacement horizontal rapide (~2 cm/a) a produit un fort échange thermique latéral, résultant en un réchauffement du côté froid et un refroidissement du côté chaud de la zone de faille de Motagua.Enfin des données (U-Th-Sm)/He sur apatite témoignent d'un refroidissement Oligocène enregistré uniquement dans la croûte supérieure de la bordure nord de la zone de faille Motagua. Nous tenterons ultérieurement de reproduire ce découplage vertical de la structure thermique par la modélisation de la formation d'un bassin transtensif et de circulation de fluides le long de la faille de Motagua. - This thesis focuses on the influence of the dynamic thermal structure of the upper crust (<10km) on the thermochronologic record of the exhumational and topographic history of magmatic continental arcs. Two mountain belts from the American Cordillera are studied: the North Cascades (USA) and the Motagua fault zone (Guatemala). I use a combined approach coupling apatite and zircon (U-Th-Sm}/He thermochronology and thermo- kinematic numerical modelling. This study highlights the temporal and spatial variability of the geothermal gradient and the importance to take into account the different geological processes that perturb the thermal structure of Cordilleran-type mountain belts (i.e. mountain belts related to oceanic subduction underneath a continent}.We integrate apatite and zircon (U-Th)/He data with numerical thermo-kinematic models to study the relative effects of magmatic and surface processes on the thermal evolution of the crust and cooling patterns in the Cenozoic North Cascades arc (Washington State, USA). Two age-elevation profiles that are located 7 km south of the well-studied Chiliiwack intrusions shows that spatial and temporal variability in geothermal gradients linked to magma emplacement can be contrained and separated from exhumation processes. During Chiliiwack batholith emplacement at -35-20 Ma, the geothermal gradient of the country rocks increased to a very high steady-state value (80-100°C/km), which is likely a function of magma flux and the distance from the magma source area. Including temporally varying geothermal gradients in the analysis allows quantifying the thermal perturbation around magmatic intrusions and retrieving a relatively simple denudation history from the data.The synthesis of new and previously published (U-Th)/He data reveals that denudation of the Northern Cascades is spatially and temporally constant at -100 m/Ma between ~32 and ~2 Ma, which likely reflects uplift due to magmatic crustal thickening since the initiation of the Cenozoic stage of the continental magmatic arc. In contrast, the humid flank of the North Cascades is affected by a ten-fold acceleration in exhumation rate at ~2 Ma, which we interpret as forced by the initiation of glaciations; around 3 km of crust have been eroded since that time. Glaciations have three distinct effects on the dynamics of this mountain range: (1) they increase erosion, exhumation and uplift rates where precipitation rates are sufficient to drive efficient glacial erosion; (2) they efficiently limit the elevation of the range; (3) they lead to widening of the humid flank and contraction of the arid flank of the belt.Drainage reorganizations constitute an important agent of landscape evolution that is often underestimated to the benefit of tectonic or climatic events. We propose a new method that integrates geomorphology, low-temperature thermochronometry (apatite and zircon {U-Th-Sm)/He), and 3D numerical thermal-kinematic modelling to detect and date drainage instability producing recent gorge incision, and apply this approach to the Skagit River Gorge, North Cascades.Two zircon (U-Th)/He age-elevation profiles sampled on both sides of the Motagua Fault Zone (MFZ), the boundary between the North American and the Caribbean plates, combined with published thermochronological data show that strike-slip displacement has juxtaposed the cold Maya block (s.s.) against the hot, arc derived, Chortis block (s.s ), producing different age patterns on both sides of the fault and short-wavelength lateral thermal exchange, resulting in recent heating of the cool side and cooling of the hot side of the MFZ.Finally, an apatite (U-Th-Sm)/He age-elevation profile records rapid cooling at -35 Ma localized only in the upper crust along the northern side of the Motagua fault zone. We will try to reproduce these data by modeling the thermal perturbation resulting from the formation of a transtensional basin and of fluid flow activity along a crustal- scale strike-slip fault.

Stable isotope ecology of Miocene large mammals from Sandelzhausen, southern Germany

The carbon, oxygen, and strontium isotope composition of enamel from teeth of large Miocene herbivorous mammals from Sandelzhausen (MN5, late Early/early Middle Miocene) in the North Alpine foreland basin, were analyzed to infer diet and habitat. The mean enamel delta(13)C value of -11.4 +/- 1.0% (n = 53) for the nine taxa analyzed (including proboscideans, cervids, suids, chalicotheres, equids, rhinocerotids) indicates a pure C(3) plant diet for all mammals. (87)Sr/(86)Sr ratios of similar to 0.710 higher than those from teeth of the western Molasse Basin (0.708-0.709) seem to indicate preferential feeding of the mammals in the northeastern Molasse Basin. The sympatric herbivores have different mean delta(13)C and delta(18)O values which support diet partitioning and/or use of different habitats within a C(3) plant ecosystem. Especially the three sympatric rhinoceroses Plesiaceratherium fahlbuschi, Lartetotherium sansaniense, and Prosantorhinus germanicus show clear partitioning of plants and/or habitats. The palaeomerycid Germanomeryx fahlbuschi was a canopy folivore in moderately closed environments whereas Metaschizotherium bavaricum (Chalicotheriidae) and P. germanicus (Rhinocerotidae) were browsers in more closed forest environments. The horse Anchitherium aurelianense was probably a more generalized feeder than assumed from its dental morphology. The forest hog Hyotherium soemmeringi has the highest delta(13)C and lowest delta(18)O value of all analyzed taxa, possibly related to a frugivorous diet. Most taxa were water-dependent browsers that record meteoric water delta(18)O values of about -5.6 +/- 0.7% Vienna Standard Mean Ocean Water (VSMOW). Using a modern-day mean annual air temperature (MAT)-delta(18)OH(2)O relation a MAT of 19.3 +/- 1.5 degrees C can be reconstructed for Sandelzhausen. A Gomphotherium subtapiroideum tusk serially sampled for delta(18)O values does not record a clear pattern of seasonality. Thus most taxa were C(3) browsers in a forested and humid floodplain environment in the Molasse Basin, which experienced a warm-temperate to subtropical climate and possibly low seasonality.

Predicted effect of climate change on the invasibility and distribution of the Western corn root-worm

1 Insect pests, biological invasions and climate change are considered to representmajor threats to biodiversity, ecosystem functioning, agriculture and forestry.Deriving hypothesis of contemporary and/or future potential distributions of insectpests and invasive species is becoming an important tool for predicting the spatialstructure of potential threats.2 The western corn rootworm (WCR) Diabrotica virgifera virgifera LeConte is apest of maize in North America that has invaded Europe in recent years, resultingin economic costs in terms of maize yields in both continents. The present studyaimed to estimate the dynamics of potential areas of invasion by the WCR under aclimate change scenario in the Northern Hemisphere. The areas at risk under thisscenario were assessed by comparing, using complementary approaches, the spatialprojections of current and future areas of climatic favourability of the WCR. Spatialhypothesis were generated with respect to the presence records in the native rangeof the WCR and physiological thresholds from previous empirical studies.3 We used a previously developed protocol specifically designed to estimatethe climatic favourability of the WCR. We selected the most biologicallyrelevant climatic predictors and then used multidimensional envelope (MDE) andMahalanobis distances (MD) approaches to derive potential distributions for currentand future climatic conditions.4 The results obtained showed a northward advancement of the upper physiologicallimit as a result of climate change, which might increase the strength of outbreaksat higher latitudes. In addition, both MDE and MD outputs predict the stability ofclimatic favourability for the WCR in the core of the already invaded area in Europe,which suggests that this zone would continue to experience damage from this pestin Europe.

Glover's rule in North American barn owls

Studying the geographic variation of phenotypic traits can provide key information about the potential adaptive function of alternative phenotypes. Gloger's rule posits that animals should be dark-vs. light-colored in warm and humid vs. cold and dry habitats, respectively. The rule is based on the assumption that melanin pigments and/or dark coloration confer selective advantages in warm and humid regions. This rule may not apply, however, if genes for color are acting on other traits conferring fitness benefits in specific climes. Covariation between coloration and climate will therefore depend on the relative importance of coloration or melanin pigments and the genetically correlated physiological and behavioral processes that enable an animal to deal with climatic factors. The Barn Owl (Tyto alba) displays three melanin-based plumage traits, and we tested whether geographic variation in these traits at the scale of the North American continent supported Gloger's rule. An analysis of variation of pheomelanin-based reddish coloration and of the number and size of black feather spots in 1,369 museum skin specimens showed that geographic variation was correlated with ambient temperature and precipitation. Owls were darker red in color and displayed larger but fewer black feather spots in colder regions. Owls also exhibited more and larger black spots in regions where the climate was dry in winter. We propose that the associations between pigmentation and ambient temperature are of opposite sign for reddish coloration and spot size vs. the number of spots because selection exerted by climate (or a correlated variable) is plumage trait-specific or because plumage traits are genetically correlated with different adaptations.

Loss of interactions with ants under cold climate in a regional myrmecophilous butterfly fauna

Aim Specialized mutualistic clades may revert and thus increase their autonomy and generalist characteristics. However, our understanding of the drivers that trigger reductions in mutualistic traits and of the consequences for the tolerance of these species to various environmental conditions remains limited. This study investigates the relationship between the environmental niche and the degree of myrmecophily (i.e. the ability to interact with ants) among members of the Lycaenidae. Location The western Swiss Alps. Methods We measured the tolerance of Lycaenidae species to low temperatures by comparing observations from a random stratified field sampling with climatic maps. We then compared the species-specific degree of myrmecophily with the species range limits at colder temperatures while controlling for phylogenetic dependence. We further evaluated whether the community-averaged degree of myrmecophily increases with temperature, as would be expected in the case of environmental filters acting on myrmecophilous species. Results Twenty-nine Lycaenidae species were found during sampling. Ancestral state reconstruction indicated that the 24 species of Polyommatinae displayed both strong myrmecophily and secondary loss of mutualism; these species were used in the subsequent statistical analyses. Species with a higher degree of ant interaction were, on average, more likely to inhabit warmer sites. Species inhabiting the coldest environments displayed little or no interaction with ants. Main conclusions Colder climates at high elevations filter out species with a high degree of myrmecophily and may have been the direct evolutionary force that promoted the loss of mutualism. A larger taxon sampling across the Holarctic may help to distinguish between the ecological and evolutionary effects of climate.

Flowering date of taxonomic families predicts phenological sensitivity to temperature: Implications for forecasting the effects of climate change on unstudied taxa.

PREMISE OF THE STUDY: Numerous long-term studies in seasonal habitats have tracked interannual variation in first flowering date (FFD) in relation to climate, documenting the effect of warming on the FFD of many species. Despite these efforts, long-term phenological observations are still lacking for many species. If we could forecast responses based on taxonomic affinity, however, then we could leverage existing data to predict the climate-related phenological shifts of many taxa not yet studied. METHODS: We examined phenological time series of 1226 species occurrences (1031 unique species in 119 families) across seven sites in North America and England to determine whether family membership (or family mean FFD) predicts the sensitivity of FFD to standardized interannual changes in temperature and precipitation during seasonal periods before flowering and whether families differ significantly in the direction of their phenological shifts. KEY RESULTS: Patterns observed among species within and across sites are mirrored among family means across sites; early-flowering families advance their FFD in response to warming more than late-flowering families. By contrast, we found no consistent relationships among taxa between mean FFD and sensitivity to precipitation as measured here. CONCLUSIONS: Family membership can be used to identify taxa of high and low sensitivity to temperature within the seasonal, temperate zone plant communities analyzed here. The high sensitivity of early-flowering families (and the absence of early-flowering families not sensitive to temperature) may reflect plasticity in flowering time, which may be adaptive in environments where early-season conditions are highly variable among years.

Stable isotope compositions of mammoth teeth from Niederweningen, Switzerland: Implications for the Late Pleistocene climate, environment, and diet

Oxygen and carbon isotope compositions of well-preserved mammoth teeth from the Middle Wurmian (40-70 ka) peat layer of Niederweningen, the most important mammoth site in Switzerland, were analysed to reconstruct Late Pleistocene palaeoclimatic and palaeoenvironmental conditions. Drinking water (delta(18)O values of approximately -12.3 +/- 0.9 parts per thousand were calculated front oxygen isotope compositions of mammoth tooth enamel apatite using a species-specific calibration for modern elephants. These delta(18)O(H2O) values reflect the mean oxygen isotope composition of the palaeo-precipitation and are similar to those directly measured for fate Pleistocene groundwater from aquifers in northern Switzerland and southern Germany. Using a present-day delta(18)O(H2)o-precipitation-air temperature relation for Switzerland, a mean annual air temperature (MAT) of around 4.3 +/- 2.1 degrees C can be calculated for the Middle Wurmian at this site. This MAT is in good agreement with palaeotemperature estimates on the basis of Middle Wurmian groundwater recharge temperatures and beetle assemblages. Hence, the climatic conditions in this region were around 4 degrees C cooler during the Middle Wurmian interstadial phase, around 45-50ka BP, than they are today. During this period the mammoths from Niederweningen lived in an open tundra-like, C(3) plant-dominated environment as indicated by enamel (delta(13)C values of -11.5 +/- 0.3 parts per thousand and pollen and macroplant fossils found in the embedding peat. The low variability of enamel delta(13)C and delta(18)O values from different mammoth teeth reflects similar environmental conditions and supports a relatively small time frame for the fossil assemblage. (C) 2006 Elsevier Ltd and INQUA. All rights reserved.

MIGCLIM: Predicting plant distribution and dispersal in a changing climate

Many studies have forecasted the possible impact of climate change on plant distribution using models based on ecological niche theory. In their basic implementation, niche-based models do not constrain predictions by dispersal limitations. Hence, most niche-based modelling studies published so far have assumed dispersal to be either unlimited or null. However, depending on the rate of climatic change, the landscape fragmentation and the dispersal capabilities of individual species, these assumptions are likely to prove inaccurate, leading to under- or overestimation of future species distributions and yielding large uncertainty between these two extremes. As a result, the concepts of "potentially suitable" and "potentially colonisable" habitat are expected to differ significantly. To quantify to what extent these two concepts can differ, we developed MIGCLIM, a model simulating plant dispersal under climate change and landscape fragmentation scenarios. MIGCLIM implements various parameters, such as dispersal distance, increase in reproductive potential over time, barriers to dispersal or long distance dispersal. Several simulations were run for two virtual species in a study area of the western Swiss Alps, by varying dispersal distance and other parameters. Each simulation covered the hundred-year period 2001-2100 and three different IPCC-based temperature warming scenarios were considered. Our results indicate that: (i) using realistic parameter values, the future potential distributions generated using MIGCLIM can differ significantly (up to more than 95% decrease in colonized surface) from those that ignore dispersal; (ii) this divergence increases both with increasing climate warming and over longer time periods; (iii) the uncertainty associated with the warming scenario can be nearly as large as the one related to dispersal parameters; (iv) accounting for dispersal, even roughly, can importantly reduce uncertainty in projections.