Predictive analysis and mapping of indoor radon concentrations in a complex environment using kernel estimation: an application to Switzerland.

PURPOSE: The aim of this study was to develop models based on kernel regression and probability estimation in order to predict and map IRC in Switzerland by taking into account all of the following: architectural factors, spatial relationships between the measurements, as well as geological information. METHODS: We looked at about 240,000 IRC measurements carried out in about 150,000 houses. As predictor variables we included: building type, foundation type, year of construction, detector type, geographical coordinates, altitude, temperature and lithology into the kernel estimation models. We developed predictive maps as well as a map of the local probability to exceed 300 Bq/m(3). Additionally, we developed a map of a confidence index in order to estimate the reliability of the probability map. RESULTS: Our models were able to explain 28% of the variations of IRC data. All variables added information to the model. The model estimation revealed a bandwidth for each variable, making it possible to characterize the influence of each variable on the IRC estimation. Furthermore, we assessed the mapping characteristics of kernel estimation overall as well as by municipality. Overall, our model reproduces spatial IRC patterns which were already obtained earlier. On the municipal level, we could show that our model accounts well for IRC trends within municipal boundaries. Finally, we found that different building characteristics result in different IRC maps. Maps corresponding to detached houses with concrete foundations indicate systematically smaller IRC than maps corresponding to farms with earth foundation. CONCLUSIONS: IRC mapping based on kernel estimation is a powerful tool to predict and analyze IRC on a large-scale as well as on a local level. This approach enables to develop tailor-made maps for different architectural elements and measurement conditions and to account at the same time for geological information and spatial relations between IRC measurements.

The Same, but Different: Central Banks, Regulatory Agencies, and the Politics of Delegation to Independent Authorities

Independent regulatory agencies are the institutional foundations of the regulatory state that, during the past 15 years, has gained prominence throughout Europe. This article studies the rise of independent authorities in European countries by comparing regulatory agencies and central banks. Delegation to independent central banks and to independent regulatory agencies is similar in many respects. In both cases, agents are deliberately made independent from political principals through a specific institutional design. Moreover, it has been argued that delegation to both central banks and regulatory agencies is linked to the need for policy-makers to improve the credibility of policy commitments, to the wish of incumbent politicians to tie the hands of future majorities, and to the extent to which the institutional contexts safeguard policy stability. Through an analysis of the formal independence of central banks and regulatory agencies in Western Europe, this article identifies an empirical puzzle that casts doubts on the accuracy of current explanations. Veto players and the uncertainty of incumbent policy-makers in respect to their re-election prospects matter for delegation to both central banks and regulatory agencies, but in opposite ways. Making sense of these anomalies is necessary to achieve a better understanding of delegation to independent authorities.

Forensic science culture

Heretofore the issue of quality in forensic science is approached through a quality management policy whose tenets are ruled by market forces. Despite some obvious advantages of standardization of methods allowing interlaboratory comparisons and implementation of databases, this approach suffers from a serious lack of consideration for forensic science as a science. A critical study of its principles and foundations, which constitutes its culture, enables to consider the matter of scientific quality through a new dimension. A better understanding of what pertains to forensic science ensures a better application and improves elementary actions within the investigative and intelligence processes as well as the judicial process. This leads to focus the attention on the core of the subject matter: the physical remnants of the criminal activity, namely, the traces that produce information in understanding this activity. Adapting practices to the detection and recognition of relevant traces relies on the apprehension of the processes underlying forensic science tenets (Locard, Kirk, relevancy issue) and a structured management of circumstantial information (directindirect information). This is influenced by forensic science education and training. However, the lack of homogeneity with regard to the scientific nature and culture of the discipline within forensic science practitioners and partners represents a real challenge. A sound and critical reconsideration of the forensic science practitioner's roles (investigator, evaluator, intelligence provider) and objectives (prevention, strategies, evidence provider) within the criminal justice system is a means to strengthen the understanding and the application of forensic science. Indeed, the whole philosophy is aimed at ensuring a high degree of excellence, namely, a dedicated scientific quality.

A rationalist perspective on the autonomy of international sport governing bodies : towards a pragmatic autonomy in the steering of sports

International sport governing bodies (ISGBs) are built on the foundations of freedom of association and traditionally enjoy a large degree of autonomy in their decision-making. Their autonomy is increasingly confined, however, and their hierarchical self-governance is giving way to a more networked governance, in which different stakeholders exert power in different ways and in different contexts in a complex web of interrelationships. Taking a rationalist perspective on the autonomy of ISGBs, this article demonstrates that ISGBs are deploying strategies to safeguard their waning governing monopoly over international sport. Opting for an inductive approach, the authors present four possible conceptualizations of autonomy as applied to ISGBs, namely political autonomy, legal autonomy, financial autonomy and pyramidal autonomy. For each dimension, they describe the different strategies ISGBs wield in order to safeguard different dimensions of their autonomy. This article uses governance theories to hypothesize that the autonomy of ISGBs can be understood as 'pragmatic autonomy' since ISGBs only cede certain aspects of their autonomy under particular circumstances and when being subject to specific threats. Acting in a rationalist manner, they are able to keep control over governance developments in sport by using indirect and more subtle forms of governance.