Prediction markets supporting technology assessment

In this thesis, we study the use of prediction markets for technology assessment. We particularly focus on their ability to assess complex issues, the design constraints required for such applications and their efficacy compared to traditional techniques. To achieve this, we followed a design science research paradigm, iteratively developing, instantiating, evaluating and refining the design of our artifacts. This allowed us to make multiple contributions, both practical and theoretical. We first showed that prediction markets are adequate for properly assessing complex issues. We also developed a typology of design factors and design propositions for using these markets in a technology assessment context. Then, we showed that they are able to solve some issues related to the R&D portfolio management process and we proposed a roadmap for their implementation. Finally, by comparing the instantiation and the results of a multi-criteria decision method and a prediction market, we showed that the latter are more efficient, while offering similar results. We also proposed a framework for comparing forecasting methods, to identify the constraints based on contingency factors. In conclusion, our research opens a new field of application of prediction markets and should help hasten their adoption by enterprises. Résumé français: Dans cette thèse, nous étudions l'utilisation de marchés de prédictions pour l'évaluation de nouvelles technologies. Nous nous intéressons plus particulièrement aux capacités des marchés de prédictions à évaluer des problématiques complexes, aux contraintes de conception pour une telle utilisation et à leur efficacité par rapport à des techniques traditionnelles. Pour ce faire, nous avons suivi une approche Design Science, développant itérativement plusieurs prototypes, les instanciant, puis les évaluant avant d'en raffiner la conception. Ceci nous a permis de faire de multiples contributions tant pratiques que théoriques. Nous avons tout d'abord montré que les marchés de prédictions étaient adaptés pour correctement apprécier des problématiques complexes. Nous avons également développé une typologie de facteurs de conception ainsi que des propositions de conception pour l'utilisation de ces marchés dans des contextes d'évaluation technologique. Ensuite, nous avons montré que ces marchés pouvaient résoudre une partie des problèmes liés à la gestion des portes-feuille de projets de recherche et développement et proposons une feuille de route pour leur mise en oeuvre. Finalement, en comparant la mise en oeuvre et les résultats d'une méthode de décision multi-critère et d'un marché de prédiction, nous avons montré que ces derniers étaient plus efficaces, tout en offrant des résultats semblables. Nous proposons également un cadre de comparaison des méthodes d'évaluation technologiques, permettant de cerner au mieux les besoins en fonction de facteurs de contingence. En conclusion, notre recherche ouvre un nouveau champ d'application des marchés de prédiction et devrait permettre d'accélérer leur adoption par les entreprises.

Bayes factor for investigative assessment of selected handwriting features

This paper extends previous research [1] on the use of multivariate continuous data in comparative handwriting examinations, notably for gender classification. A database has been constructed by analyzing the contour shape of loop characters of type a and d by means of Fourier analysis, which allows characters to be described in a global way by a set of variables (e.g., Fourier descriptors). Sample handwritings were collected from right- and left-handed female and male writers. The results reported in this paper provide further arguments in support of the view that investigative settings in forensic science represent an area of application for which the Bayesian approach offers a logical framework. In particular, the Bayes factor is computed for settings that focus on inference of gender and handedness of the author of an incriminated handwritten text. An emphasis is placed on comparing the efficiency for investigative purposes of characters a and d.

Interét et limites de l'evaluation du risque de récidive d'actes illégaux dans les expertises psychiatriques [Benefits and limitation of the assessment of second offense risk in psychiatric expertise].

The legislatives evolutions imply an important recourse to the psychiatric expertise in order to evaluate the potential dangerousness of a subject. However, in spite of the development of techniques and tools for this evaluation, the dangerousness assessment of a subject is in practice extremely complex and discussed in the scientific literature. The evolution of the concept of dangerousness to the risk assessment involved a technicisation of this evaluation which should not make forget the limits of these tools and the need for restoring the subject, the meaning and the clinic in this evaluation.

Assessment of diesel exhaust particulate exposure and surface characteristics in association with levels of oxidative stress biomarkers

Exposure to PM10 and PM2.5 (particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter smaller than 10 μm and 2.5 μm, respectively) is associated with a range of adverse health effects, including cancer, pulmonary and cardiovascular diseases. Surface characteristics (chemical reactivity, surface area) are considered of prime importance to understand the mechanisms which lead to harmful effects. A hypothetical mechanism to explain these adverse effects is the ability of components (organics, metal ions) adsorbed on these particles to generate Reactive Oxygen Species (ROS), and thereby to cause oxidative stress in biological systems (Donaldson et al., 2003). ROS can attack almost any cellular structure, like DNA or cellular membrane, leading to the formation of a wide variety of degradation products which can be used as a biomarker of oxidative stress. The aim of the present research project is to test whether there is a correlation between the exposure to Diesel Exhaust Particulate (DEP) and the oxidative stress status. For that purpose, a survey has been conducted in real occupational situations where workers were exposed to DEP (bus depots). Different exposure variables have been considered: - particulate number, size distribution and surface area (SMPS); - particulate mass - PM2.5 and PM4 (gravimetry); - elemental and organic carbon (coulometry); - total adsorbed heavy metals - iron, copper, manganese (atomic adsorption); - surface functional groups present on aerosols (Knudsen flow reactor). Several biomarkers of oxidative stress (8-hydroxy-2'-deoxyguanosine and several aldehydes) have been determined either in urine or serum of volunteers. Results obtained during the sampling campaign in several bus depots indicated that the occupational exposure to particulates in these places was rather low (40-50 μg/m3 for PM4). Bimodal size distributions were generally observed (5 μm and <1 μm). Surface characteristics of PM4 varied strongly, depending on the bus depot. They were usually characterized by high carbonyl and low acidic sites content. Among the different biomarkers which have been analyzed within the framework of this study, mean urinary levels of 8-hydroxy-2'-deoxyguanosine increased significantly (p<0.05) during two consecutive days of exposure for non-smoker workers. On the other hand, no statistically significant differences were observed for serum levels of hexanal, nonanal and 4- hydroxy-nonenal (p>0.05). Biomarkers levels will be compared to exposure variables to gain a better understanding of the relation between the particulate characteristics and the formation of ROS by-products. This project is financed by the Swiss State Secretariat for Education and Research. It is conducted within the framework of the COST Action 633 "Particulate Matter - Properties Related to Health Effects".

Impact of engineered nanomaterials on health : considerations for benefit-risk assessment

Nanotechnology encompasses the design, characterisation, production and application of materials and systems by controlling shape and size at the nanoscale (nanometres). Nanomaterials may differ from other materials because of their relatively large specific surface area, such that surface properties become particularly important. There has been rapid growth in investment in nanotechnology by both the public and private sectors worldwide. In the EU, nanotechnology is expected to become an important strategic contributor to achieving economic gain and societal and individual benefits. At the same time there is continuing scientific uncertainty and controversy about the safety of nanomaterials. It is important to ensure that timely policy development takes this into consideration. Uncertainty about safety may lead to polarised public debate and to business unwillingness to invest further. A clear regulatory framework to address potential health and environmental impacts, within the wider context of evaluating and communicating the benefit-risk balance, must be a core part of Europe's integrated efforts for nanotechnology innovation. While a number of studies have been carried out on the effect of environmental nanoparticles, e.g. from combustion processes, on human health, there is yet no generally acceptable paradigm for safety assessment of nanomaterials in consumer and other products. Therefore, a working group was established to consider issues for the possible impact of nanomaterials on human health focussing specifically on engineered nanomaterials. This represents the first joint initiative between EASAC and the Joint Research Centre of the European Commission. The working group was given the remit to describe the state of the art of benefits and potential risks, current methods for safety assessment, and to evaluate their relevance, identify knowledge gaps in studying the safety of current nanomaterials, and recommend on priorities for nanomaterial research and the regulatory framework. This report focuses on key principles and issues, cross-referencing other sources for detailed information, rather than attempting a comprehensive account of the science. The focus is on human health although environmental effects are also discussed when directly relevant to health

Expert clinical reasoning and pain assessment in mechanically ventilated patients: A descriptive study.

BACKGROUND: Pain assessment in mechanically ventilated patients is challenging, because nurses need to decode pain behaviour, interpret pain scores, and make appropriate decisions. This clinical reasoning process is inherent to advanced nursing practice, but is poorly understood. A better understanding of this process could contribute to improved pain assessment and management. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to describe the indicators that influence expert nurses' clinical reasoning when assessing pain in critically ill nonverbal patients. METHODS: This descriptive observational study was conducted in the adult intensive care unit (ICU) of a tertiary referral hospital in Western Switzerland. A purposive sample of expert nurses, caring for nonverbal ventilated patients who received sedation and analgesia, were invited to participate in the study. Data were collected in "real life" using recorded think-aloud combined with direct non-participant observation and brief interviews. Data were analysed using deductive and inductive content analyses using a theoretical framework related to clinical reasoning and pain. RESULTS: Seven expert nurses with an average of 7.85 (±3.1) years of critical care experience participated in the study. The patients had respiratory distress (n=2), cardiac arrest (n=2), sub-arachnoid bleeding (n=1), and multi-trauma (n=2). A total of 1344 quotes in five categories were identified. Patients' physiological stability was the principal indicator for making decision in relation to pain management. Results also showed that it is a permanent challenge for nurses to discriminate situations requiring sedation from situations requiring analgesia. Expert nurses mainly used working knowledge and patterns to anticipate and prevent pain. CONCLUSIONS: Patient's clinical condition is important for making decision about pain in critically ill nonverbal patients. The concept of pain cannot be assessed in isolation and its assessment should take the patient's clinical stability and sedation into account. Further research is warranted to confirm these results.

Biological impact assessment of nanomaterial used in nanomedicine. Introduction to the NanoTEST project.

Therapeutic nanoparticles (NPs) are used in nanomedicine as drug carriers or imaging agents, providing increased selectivity/specificity for diseased tissues. The first NPs in nanomedicine were developed for increasing the efficacy of known drugs displaying dose-limiting toxicity and poor bioavailability and for enhancing disease detection. Nanotechnologies have gained much interest owing to their huge potential for applications in industry and medicine. It is necessary to ensure and control the biocompatibility of the components of therapeutic NPs to guarantee that intrinsic toxicity does not overtake the benefits. In addition to monitoring their toxicity in vitro, in vivo and in silico, it is also necessary to understand their distribution in the human body, their biodegradation and excretion routes and dispersion in the environment. Therefore, a deep understanding of their interactions with living tissues and of their possible effects in the human (and animal) body is required for the safe use of nanoparticulate formulations. Obtaining this information was the main aim of the NanoTEST project, and the goals of the reports collected together in this special issue are to summarise the observations and results obtained by the participating research teams and to provide methodological tools for evaluating the biological impact of NPs.

The empirical assessment of agency accountability: A regime approach and an application to the German Bundesnetzagentur

Regulation has in many cases been delegated to independent agencies, which has led to the question of how democratic accountability of these agencies is ensured. There are few empirical approaches to agency accountability. We offer such an approach, resting upon three propositions. First, we scrutinize agency accountability both de jure (accountability is ensured by formal rights of accountability 'fora' to receive information and impose consequences) and de facto (the capability of fora to use these rights depends on resources and decision costs that affect the credibility of their sanctioning capacity). Second, accountability must be evaluated separately at political, operational and managerial levels. And third, at each level accountability is enacted by a system of several (partially) interdependent fora, forming together an accountability regime. The proposed framework is applied to the case of the German Bundesnetzagentur's accountability regime, which shows its suitability for empirical purposes. Regulatory agencies are often considered as independent, yet accountable. This article provides a realistic framework for the study of accountability 'regimes' in which they are embedded. It emphasizes the need to identify the various actors (accountability fora) to which agencies are formally accountable (parliamentary committees, auditing bodies, courts, and so on) and to consider possible relationships between them. It argues that formal accountability 'on paper', as defined in official documents, does not fully account for de facto accountability, which depends on the resources possessed by the fora (mainly information-processing and decision-making capacities) and the credibility of their sanctioning capacities. The article applies this framework to the German Bundesnetzagentur.

Evaluation du risque de récidive dans les expertises pénales: quels outils? Quets indicateurs? Quelles pratiques [Risk assessment in forensic psychiatric reports: what kind assessment instrument? What indicator? What practical?].

Here we present results of studies conducted by the Research Unit of Legal Psychiatry and Psychology of Lausanne about risk assessment and protective factors in the evaluation of violence recidivism. It aims to help experts in considering the relevance and use of tools at their disposal. Particular attention is given to the significance of protective factors and impulsive dimensions, as to the inter-raters process that leads to the final deliberations.

Quality of Qualitative Research in the Health Sciences : Analysis of the Common Criteria Present in 58 Assessment Guidelines by Expert Users

The number of qualitative research methods has grown substantially over the last twenty years, both in social sciences and, more recently, in the health sciences. This growth came with questions on the quality criteria needed to evaluate this work, and numerous guidelines were published. The latters include many discrepancies though, both in their vocabulary and construction. Many expert evaluators decry the absence of consensual and reliable evaluation tools. The authors present the results of an evaluation of 58 existing guidelines in 4 major health science fields (medicine and epidemiology; nursing and health education; social sciences and public health; psychology / psychiatry, research methods and organization) by expert users (article reviewers, experts allocating funds, editors, etc.). The results propose a toolbox containing 12 consensual criteria with the definitions given by expert users. They also indicate in which disciplinary field each type of criteria is known to be more or less essential. Nevertheless, the authors highlight the limitations of the criteria comparability, as soon as one focuses on their specific definitions. They conclude that each criterion in the toolbox must be explained to come to broader consensus and identify definitions that are consensual to all the fields examined and easily operational.

Dix ans de revue de la littérature en médecine interne générale--un premier bilan [Ten years of literature review in general internal medicine--a first assessment].

A group of family physicians in an outpatient clinic in Switzerland prospectively followed scientific literature for ten years. What to remember among the numerous articles retrieved and which paper really changed our practice? If many readings are quickly forgotten, some of them marked our minds and changed our habits. This article is a summary of our efforts to keep the essential tools in clinical practice.

Continuing Medical Education Self-Assessment Questions Vol. 50, No. 1 - January 2014. Actual evidence in the medical approach to adolescents with idiopathic scoliosis

Idiopathic scoliosis (IS) is a three-dimensional deformity of the spine and trunk. The most common form involve ado- lescents (AIS). The prevalence for AIS is 2-3% of the population, with 1 out of 6 patients requiring treatment of which 25% progress to surgery. Physical and rehabilitation medicine (PRM) plays a primary role in the so-called conservative treatment of adolescents with AIS, since all the therapeutic tools used (exercises and braces) fall into the PRM domain. According to a Cochrane systematic review there is evidence in favor of bracing, even if it is of low quality. Another shows that there is evidence in favor of exercises as an adjunctive treatment, but of low quality. Three meta-analysis have been published on bracing: one shows that bracing does not reduce surgery rates, but studies with bracing plus exercises were not included and had the highest effectiveness; another shows that full time is better than part-time bracing; the last focuses on observational studies following the SRS criteria and shows that not all full time rigid bracing are the same: some have the highest effectiveness, others have less than elastic and nighttime bracing. Two very important RCTs failed in recruitment, showing that in the field of bracing for scoliosis RCTs are not accepted by the patients. Consensuses by the international Society on Scoliosis Orthopedic and Rehabilitation Treatment (SOSORT) show that there is no agree- ment among experts either on the best braces or on their biomechanical action, and that compliance is a matter of clinical more than patients' behavior (there is strong agreement on the management criteria to achieve best results with bracing). A systematic review of all the existing studies shows effectiveness of exercises, and that auto-correction is the main goal of exercises. A systematic review shows that there are no studies on manual treatment. Research on conservative treat- ment of AIS has continuously decreased since the 1980s, but this trend changed only recently. The SOSORT Guidelines offers the actual standard of conservative care.