Predictors of Weight Change in Sedentary Smokers Receiving a Standard Smoking Cessation Intervention.

INTRODUCTION: Quitting smoking is associated with weight gain, which may threaten motivation to engage or sustain a quit attempt. The pattern of weight gained by smokers treated according to smoking cessation guidelines has been poorly described. We aimed to determine the weight gained after smoking cessation and its predictors, by smokers receiving individual counseling and nicotine replacement therapies for smoking cessation. METHODS: We performed an ancillary analysis of a randomized controlled trial assessing moderate physical activity as an aid for smoking cessation in addition to standard treatment in sedentary adult smokers. We used mixed longitudinal models to describe the evolution of weight over time, thus allowing us to take every participant into account. We also fitted a model to assess the effect of smoking status and reported use of nicotine replacement therapy at each time point. We adjusted for intervention group, sex, age, nicotine dependence, and education. RESULTS: In the whole cohort, weight increased in the first 3 months, and stabilized afterwards. Mean 1-year weight gain was 3.3kg for women and 3.9kg for men (p = .002). Higher nicotine dependence and male sex were associated with more weight gained during abstinence. Age over median was associated with continuing weight gain during relapse. There was a nonsignificant trend toward slower weight gain with use of nicotine replacement therapies. CONCLUSION: Sedentary smokers receiving a standard smoking cessation intervention experience a moderate weight gain, limited to the first 3 months. Older age, male sex, and higher nicotine dependence are predictors of weight gain.

Early change in defence mechanisms and coping in short-term dynamic psychotherapy: relations with symptoms and alliance.

Several patient-related variables have already been investigated as predictors of change in psychodynamic psychotherapy. Defensive functioning is one of them. However, few studies have investigated adaptational processes, encompassing defence mechanisms and coping, from an integrative or comparative viewpoint. This study includes 32 patients, mainly diagnosed with adjustment disorder and undergoing time-limited psychodynamic psychotherapy lasting up to 40 sessions, and will focus on early change in defence and coping. Observer-rater methodology was applied to the transcripts of two sessions of the first part of the psychotherapeutic process. It is assumed that the contextual-relational variable of therapeutic alliance intervenes as moderator on change in adaptational processes. Results corroborated the hypothesis, but only for coping, whereas for defences, overall functioning remained stable over the first 20 sessions of psychotherapy. These results are discussed within the framework of disentangling processes underlying adaptation, i.e., related to issues on trait and state aspects, as well as the role of the therapeutic alliance.

Flowering date of taxonomic families predicts phenological sensitivity to temperature: Implications for forecasting the effects of climate change on unstudied taxa.

PREMISE OF THE STUDY: Numerous long-term studies in seasonal habitats have tracked interannual variation in first flowering date (FFD) in relation to climate, documenting the effect of warming on the FFD of many species. Despite these efforts, long-term phenological observations are still lacking for many species. If we could forecast responses based on taxonomic affinity, however, then we could leverage existing data to predict the climate-related phenological shifts of many taxa not yet studied. METHODS: We examined phenological time series of 1226 species occurrences (1031 unique species in 119 families) across seven sites in North America and England to determine whether family membership (or family mean FFD) predicts the sensitivity of FFD to standardized interannual changes in temperature and precipitation during seasonal periods before flowering and whether families differ significantly in the direction of their phenological shifts. KEY RESULTS: Patterns observed among species within and across sites are mirrored among family means across sites; early-flowering families advance their FFD in response to warming more than late-flowering families. By contrast, we found no consistent relationships among taxa between mean FFD and sensitivity to precipitation as measured here. CONCLUSIONS: Family membership can be used to identify taxa of high and low sensitivity to temperature within the seasonal, temperate zone plant communities analyzed here. The high sensitivity of early-flowering families (and the absence of early-flowering families not sensitive to temperature) may reflect plasticity in flowering time, which may be adaptive in environments where early-season conditions are highly variable among years.

Paleoenvironmental evolution of the Helvetic shallow-water carbonate platform near the Barremian-Aptian boundary, and its relationship with paleoceanographic and paleoclimatic change in the Tethys

Abstract:During my doctoral research, I focused on deciphering the interactions between sea-level and climate change during the Late Barremian-Early Aptian, their expression in the Tethys basin and in the Helvetic carbonate platform. The research highlights are summarized here in three points: In the Helvetic Alps, the transition between the Lower Schrattenkalk (Upper Barremian) and the Rawil Member (Lowermost Aptian) is characterized by a change from a predominantly photozoan to a heterozoan carbonate-producing system, which coincides in time with a general increase in detrital and nutrient input. The clay mineral record shows the appearance of kaolinite within the Rawil Member, whereas this mineral is absent from the uppermost Lower and lowermost Upper Schrattenkalk Members. This indicates the installation of a warmer and more humid climate during this time period. A negative peak in 513C is recorded at the top of the Lower Schrattenkalk Member, and correlates with the well-known negative excursion of -l%o occurring in other basins and dated as latest Barremian, thus confirming a latest Barremian and earliest Aptian age for the Lower Schrattenkalk and Rawil Members, respectively. Furthermore, a sequence stratigraphie framework has been defined for the Rawil Member, based on both the ecology of faunal and floral assemblages, and their palaeoenvironmental interpretation, as well as on the stacking pattern of limestone beds observed during field prospection. The presence of a sequence boundary is postulated near the top of the Lower Schrattenkalk Member, which is correlated with the earliest Aptian SbAl defined in Vercors (France). The SbAl is characterized by a maximum of proximal assemblages and by the disappearance of several benthic foraminiferal species. Within the Rawil Member itself, the stacking pattern and microfacies trends are interpreted to represent the TST of the first Aptian sequence. With regards to the pelagic setting in the Tethyan realm, I investigated the Gorgo a Cerbara section (central Italy). There, thin organic-rich layers occur episodically in pelagic carbonates of the upper Barremian portion of the Maiolica Formation. They are associated with high Corg:Ptot ratios, which indicate the presence of intermittent dysoxic to anoxic conditions. Coarse correlations are also observed between TOC, Ρ and biogenic silica contents, indicating links between Ρ availability, productivity, and organic matter preservation. The corresponding 813Ccarb and δ180 records remain, however, quite stable, indicating that these brief periods of enhanced TOC preservation did not have sufficient impact on the marine carbon household to deviate 6,3C records, and are probably not the consequence of major climate change. On the other hand, organic-rich layers become more frequent around the Barremian-Aptian boundary in both pelagic and hemi-pelagic environments (Gorgo a Cerbara and La Bédoule, France), which are correlated with negative excursions in 6l3Ccarb and 613Corg records. During the earliest Aptian, at Gorgo a Cerbara, the frequency of organic-rich intervals progressively increases and redox-sensitive trace-element enrichments become more frequent, until the highest TOC-enriched level just below the "Livello Selli", indicator of Oceanic Anoxic Event la (OAEla). The latter is associated with the well-known negative spike in 613Ccarb and S,3Corg records, a diminution in the δ,80 record interpreted as the consequence of a wanning interval, an important peak in Ρ accumulation and high Cor::Ptot ratios indicating the prevalence of anoxic conditions. The Selli Level (OAEla) documents a general cooling phase and coincides with maximum RSTE enrichments as well as high Corg:Ptot ratios, which confirm the importance of anoxic conditions during OAE1 a at this site.During the Early Aptian, environmental change on the platform is expressed by orbitolinids proliferation that may be induced by both climate change and sea-level rise. In the basin, the successive black shales horizons from the Late Barremian until the OAE la are interpreted as the progressive impact of palaeoenvironmental change probably linked to the formation of the Ontong- Java plate-basalt plateau.RésuméCe travail de thèse a permis d'investiguer les interactions entre les variations du niveau marin et les changements climatiques sur la plate-forme helvétique ainsi qu'en domaine pélagique à la limite Barrémien-Aptien (Crétacé).Dans les Alpes helvétiques, la limite Barrémien-Aptien est marquée par la transition du Schrattenkalk inférieur, caractérisé par des carbonates photozaires, au Membre de Rawil caractérisé par des carbonates héterozoaires. Cette transition est marquée par une arrivée massive d'éléments détritiques et un apport de nutriments ayant entraîné la prolifération de foraminifères agglutinés tels que les orbitolines. L'analyse des minéraux argileux indique l'apparition de la kaolinite durant le Membre de Rawil, interprétée comme l'installation d'un climat plus chaud et humide. Un pic négatif en 513C est enregistré au sommet du Schrattenkalk inférieur correspond à l'excursion négative de -1%0 bien connue en domaine pélagique et datée comme Barrémien terminal. Cette corrélation apporte un contrôle chronostratigraphique supplémentaire permettant de dater le Schrattenkalk inférieur du Barrémien sup. et le Membre de Rawil de l'Aptien inf. D'autre part, une étude stratigraphique, basée sur des observations de terrain et sur l'interprétation d'assemblages floristiques et faunistiques en terme de paléoenvironnement a permis de mettre en évidence une limite de séquence au sommet du Schrattenkalk inf., corrélable avec la SbAl définie dans le Vercors. Durant la mise en place du Membre de Rawil, l'évolution des microfaciès est interprétée comme le « Transgressive System Tract » de la première séquence aptienne.En domaine pélagique, de minces couches riches en matière organique (MO) apparaissent dès le Barrémien sup. dans la coupe de Gorgo a Cerbara (Italie). Elles sont associées à un ratio C:P élevé indiquant des conditions épisodiquement dysoxiques à anoxiques. De plus, une corrélation nette entre Carbone Organique Total (TOC), phosphore (P) et silice biogénique est observée correspondant à un lien entre Ρ disponible, productivité et préservation de la MO. Pourtant, dans le même temps, le ÔI3C et le δ1βΟ restent constants indiquant des conditions environnementales stables et un cycle du carbone non perturbé par la préservation de MO qui ne serait pas la conséquence d'un changement climatique global mais juste d'un effet local.Ala limite Barrémien-Aptien, en domaine hémi-pélagique (La Bédoule, France) et pélagique (Gorgo a Cerbara), les couches riches en MO sont plus fréquentes et plus épaisses, elles se sont déposées en même temps qu'un pic négatif en 513CCARB et ô13Coib probablement dû à un épisode volcanique. A l'Aptien inf. le TOC des niveaux riches en MO augmente progressivement en même temps que la teneur en éléments traces jusqu'au dernier enrichissement avant l'événement anoxique océanique la (OAE la) correspondant au « niveau critique inf. », indiquant des conditions anoxiques moins restreintes. Celui-ci est également caractérisé par le fameux pic négatif en Ô13C (C3), une diminution du δ180 interprétée comme un réchauffement, par un pic en Ρ et un ratio C:P élevé. L'OAE 1 a, quant à lui, enregistre un refroidissement et coïncide avec le maximum en éléments traces ainsi qu'un fort ratio C:P mettant en valeur l'importance des conditions anoxiques pendant 1ΌΑΕ la dans cette coupe alors qu'aucune perturbation n'est enregistrés à La Bédoule probablement à cause de conditions paléogéographiques locales.Durant l'Aptien inf., les changements environnementaux sur la plate-forme se marquent par la prolifération d'orbitolines due à un changement climatique et une hausse du niveau marin. En domaine profond, la succession de niveaux riches en MO du Barrémien sup. jusqu'à l'OAE la documente l'impact progressif de changements paléoenvironnementaux, probablement liés à la formation du plateau d'Ontong Java à l'ouest de l'océan Pacifique.

Characterization of the role of Rho activating signalling complexes in G protein-coupled receptor induced cardiac fibrosis

Dans certaines conditions pathologiques, telles que l'hypertension artérielle ou l'infarctus du myocarde, le coeur répond à une augmentation de la post-charge par des processus de remodelage aboutissant à une hypertrophie du ventricule gauche. L'hypertrophie cardiaque est caractérisée par une croissance hypertrophique des cardiomyocytes, ainsi que par une différenciation des fibroblastes en un phenotype présentant une capacité accrue de synthèse protéiques, nommés myofibroblastes. Ceci résulte en une accumulation excessive des constituants de la matrice extracellulaire, ou autrement dit fibrose. En raison de son effet délétère sur la contractilité du coeur, menant sur le long terme à une insuffisance cardiaque, de nombreux efforts ont été déployés, afin de définir les mécanismes moléculaires impliqués dans la réponse profibrotique. A ce jour, de nombreuses études indiquent que la petite GTPase RhoA pourrait être un médiateur important de la réponse profibrotique du myocarde. Cependant, les facteurs d'échanges impliqués dans la transduction de signaux profibrotiques, via la régulation de son activité au niveau des fibroblastes cardiaques, n'ont pas encore été identifiés. De précédentes études menées dans le laboratoire, ont identifiées une nouvelle protein d'ancrage de la PKA, exprimée majoritairement dans le coeur, nommée AKAP-Lbc. Il a été montré que cette protéine, en plus de sa fonction de protein d'ancrage, possédait une activité de facteur d'échange de nucléotide guanine (GEF) pour la petite GTPase RhoA. Au niveau des cardiomyocytes, il a été montré que l'AKAP-Lbc participe à une voie de signalisation pro-hypertrophique, incluant la sous-unité alpha de la protéine G hétérotrimerique G12 et RhoA. Chose intéressante, des observations antérieures à cette étude, indiquent que dans le coeur, l'AKAP-Lbc est également exprimée dans les fibroblastes. Cependant aucunes études n'a encore reporté de fonction pour ce facteur d'échange dans les fibroblastes cardiaques. Dans ce travail, les résultats obtenus indiquent que dans les fibroblastes cardiaques, I'activation de RhoA par l'AKAP-Lbc est impliquée dans la transmission de signaux profibrotiques, en aval des récépteurs à l'angiotensine II. En particulier, nous avons observé que la suppression de l'expression de l'AKAP-Lbc dans les fibroblastes ventriculaires de rat adultes, réduisait fortement Γ activation de Rho induite par l'angiotensine II, la déposition de collagène, la capacité migratoire des fibroblastes ainsi que leur différenciation en myofibroblastes. A notre connaissance, l'AKAP-Lbc est le premier RhoGEF identifié comme médiateur de la réponse profibrotique dans les fibroblastes cardiaques. - In pathological conditions such as chronic hypertension or myocardial infarction, the myocardium is subjected to various biomechanical and biochemical stresses, and undergoes an adverse ventricular remodelling process associated with cardiomyocytes hypertrophy and excess deposition of extracellular matrix proteins resulting in fibrosis. During the fibrotic response, cardiac fibroblasts differentiate into a more mobile and contractile phenotype termed myofibroblasts. These cells, possess a greater synthetic ability to produce ECM proteins and have been implicated in diseases with increased ECM deposition including cardiac fibrosis. Because fibrosis impairs myocardial contractility and is associated with the progression to heart failure, a major cause of lethality worldwide, many efforts have been made to define the molecular players involved in this process. During these last years, increasing evidence suggests a role for the small GTPase RhoA in mediating the fibrotic response in CFbs. However the identity of the exchange factors that modulate its activity and transduce fibrotic signals in CFbs is still unknown. Earlier work in our laboratory identified a novel PKA anchoring protein expressed in the heart termed AKAP-Lbc that has been shown to function as anchoring protein as well as a guanine nucleotide exchange factor (GEF) for the small GTPase RhoA. In response to several hypertrophic stimuli we have shown that RhoGEF activity of AKAP-Lbc mediated by Gan promotes the activation of a signaling pathway including RhoA, leading to cardiomyocytes hypertrophy. Within the heart, previous observations made in the laboratory indicated that AKAP-Lbc was also expressed in fibroblasts. However its role in cardiac fibroblasts remained to be determined. In the present study, we show that AKAP-Lbc is critical for activating RhoA and transducing profibrotic signals downstream of angiotensin II receptors in cardiac fibroblasts. In particular, our results indicate that suppression of AKAP-Lbc expression by infecting adult rat ventricular fibroblasts with lentiviruses encoding AKAP-Lbc specific short hairpin RNAs strongly reduces angiotensin II-induced RhoA activation, collagen deposition as well as cell migration and differentiation. These findings identify AKAP-Lbc as the first Rho-guanine nucleotide exchange factor involved in a profibrotic signalling pathway at the level of cardiac fibroblasts.

Prediction markets supporting technology assessment

In this thesis, we study the use of prediction markets for technology assessment. We particularly focus on their ability to assess complex issues, the design constraints required for such applications and their efficacy compared to traditional techniques. To achieve this, we followed a design science research paradigm, iteratively developing, instantiating, evaluating and refining the design of our artifacts. This allowed us to make multiple contributions, both practical and theoretical. We first showed that prediction markets are adequate for properly assessing complex issues. We also developed a typology of design factors and design propositions for using these markets in a technology assessment context. Then, we showed that they are able to solve some issues related to the R&D portfolio management process and we proposed a roadmap for their implementation. Finally, by comparing the instantiation and the results of a multi-criteria decision method and a prediction market, we showed that the latter are more efficient, while offering similar results. We also proposed a framework for comparing forecasting methods, to identify the constraints based on contingency factors. In conclusion, our research opens a new field of application of prediction markets and should help hasten their adoption by enterprises. Résumé français: Dans cette thèse, nous étudions l'utilisation de marchés de prédictions pour l'évaluation de nouvelles technologies. Nous nous intéressons plus particulièrement aux capacités des marchés de prédictions à évaluer des problématiques complexes, aux contraintes de conception pour une telle utilisation et à leur efficacité par rapport à des techniques traditionnelles. Pour ce faire, nous avons suivi une approche Design Science, développant itérativement plusieurs prototypes, les instanciant, puis les évaluant avant d'en raffiner la conception. Ceci nous a permis de faire de multiples contributions tant pratiques que théoriques. Nous avons tout d'abord montré que les marchés de prédictions étaient adaptés pour correctement apprécier des problématiques complexes. Nous avons également développé une typologie de facteurs de conception ainsi que des propositions de conception pour l'utilisation de ces marchés dans des contextes d'évaluation technologique. Ensuite, nous avons montré que ces marchés pouvaient résoudre une partie des problèmes liés à la gestion des portes-feuille de projets de recherche et développement et proposons une feuille de route pour leur mise en oeuvre. Finalement, en comparant la mise en oeuvre et les résultats d'une méthode de décision multi-critère et d'un marché de prédiction, nous avons montré que ces derniers étaient plus efficaces, tout en offrant des résultats semblables. Nous proposons également un cadre de comparaison des méthodes d'évaluation technologiques, permettant de cerner au mieux les besoins en fonction de facteurs de contingence. En conclusion, notre recherche ouvre un nouveau champ d'application des marchés de prédiction et devrait permettre d'accélérer leur adoption par les entreprises.

Modelling tree population dynamics at the alpine and boreal tree-line ecotones in response to climate and land-use change

Summary Ecotones are sensitive to change because they contain high numbers of species living at the margin of their environmental tolerance. This is equally true of tree-lines, which are determined by attitudinal or latitudinal temperature gradients. In the current context of climate change, they are expected to undergo modifications in position, tree biomass and possibly species composition. Attitudinal and latitudinal tree-lines differ mainly in the steepness of the underlying temperature gradient: distances are larger at latitudinal tree-lines, which could have an impact on the ability of tree species to migrate in response to climate change. Aside from temperature, tree-lines are also affected on a more local level by pressure from human activities. These are also changing as a consequence of modifications in our societies and may interact with the effects of climate change. Forest dynamics models are often used for climate change simulations because of their mechanistic processes. The spatially-explicit model TreeMig was used as a base to develop a model specifically tuned for the northern European and Alpine tree-line ecotones. For the latter, a module for land-use change processes was also added. The temperature response parameters for the species in the model were first calibrated by means of tree-ring data from various species and sites at both tree-lines. This improved the growth response function in the model, but also lead to the conclusion that regeneration is probably more important than growth for controlling tree-line position and species' distributions. The second step was to implement the module for abandonment of agricultural land in the Alps, based on an existing spatial statistical model. The sensitivity of its most important variables was tested and the model's performance compared to other modelling approaches. The probability that agricultural land would be abandoned was strongly influenced by the distance from the nearest forest and the slope, bath of which are proxies for cultivation costs. When applied to a case study area, the resulting model, named TreeMig-LAb, gave the most realistic results. These were consistent with observed consequences of land-abandonment such as the expansion of the existing forest and closing up of gaps. This new model was then applied in two case study areas, one in the Swiss Alps and one in Finnish Lapland, under a variety of climate change scenarios. These were based on forecasts of temperature change over the next century by the IPCC and the HadCM3 climate model (ΔT: +1.3, +3.5 and +5.6 °C) and included a post-change stabilisation period of 300 years. The results showed radical disruptions at both tree-lines. With the most conservative climate change scenario, species' distributions simply shifted, but it took several centuries reach a new equilibrium. With the more extreme scenarios, some species disappeared from our study areas (e.g. Pinus cembra in the Alps) or dwindled to very low numbers, as they ran out of land into which they could migrate. The most striking result was the lag in the response of most species, independently from the climate change scenario or tree-line type considered. Finally, a statistical model of the effect of reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) browsing on the growth of Pinus sylvestris was developed, as a first step towards implementing human impacts at the boreal tree-line. The expected effect was an indirect one, as reindeer deplete the ground lichen cover, thought to protect the trees against adverse climate conditions. The model showed a small but significant effect of browsing, but as the link with the underlying climate variables was unclear and the model was not spatial, it was not usable as such. Developing the TreeMig-LAb model allowed to: a) establish a method for deriving species' parameters for the growth equation from tree-rings, b) highlight the importance of regeneration in determining tree-line position and species' distributions and c) improve the integration of social sciences into landscape modelling. Applying the model at the Alpine and northern European tree-lines under different climate change scenarios showed that with most forecasted levels of temperature increase, tree-lines would suffer major disruptions, with shifts in distributions and potential extinction of some tree-line species. However, these responses showed strong lags, so these effects would not become apparent before decades and could take centuries to stabilise. Résumé Les écotones son sensibles au changement en raison du nombre élevé d'espèces qui y vivent à la limite de leur tolérance environnementale. Ceci s'applique également aux limites des arbres définies par les gradients de température altitudinaux et latitudinaux. Dans le contexte actuel de changement climatique, on s'attend à ce qu'elles subissent des modifications de leur position, de la biomasse des arbres et éventuellement des essences qui les composent. Les limites altitudinales et latitudinales diffèrent essentiellement au niveau de la pente des gradients de température qui les sous-tendent les distance sont plus grandes pour les limites latitudinales, ce qui pourrait avoir un impact sur la capacité des espèces à migrer en réponse au changement climatique. En sus de la température, la limite des arbres est aussi influencée à un niveau plus local par les pressions dues aux activités humaines. Celles-ci sont aussi en mutation suite aux changements dans nos sociétés et peuvent interagir avec les effets du changement climatique. Les modèles de dynamique forestière sont souvent utilisés pour simuler les effets du changement climatique, car ils sont basés sur la modélisation de processus. Le modèle spatialement explicite TreeMig a été utilisé comme base pour développer un modèle spécialement adapté pour la limite des arbres en Europe du Nord et dans les Alpes. Pour cette dernière, un module servant à simuler des changements d'utilisation du sol a également été ajouté. Tout d'abord, les paramètres de la courbe de réponse à la température pour les espèces inclues dans le modèle ont été calibrées au moyen de données dendrochronologiques pour diverses espèces et divers sites des deux écotones. Ceci a permis d'améliorer la courbe de croissance du modèle, mais a également permis de conclure que la régénération est probablement plus déterminante que la croissance en ce qui concerne la position de la limite des arbres et la distribution des espèces. La seconde étape consistait à implémenter le module d'abandon du terrain agricole dans les Alpes, basé sur un modèle statistique spatial existant. La sensibilité des variables les plus importantes du modèle a été testée et la performance de ce dernier comparée à d'autres approches de modélisation. La probabilité qu'un terrain soit abandonné était fortement influencée par la distance à la forêt la plus proche et par la pente, qui sont tous deux des substituts pour les coûts liés à la mise en culture. Lors de l'application en situation réelle, le nouveau modèle, baptisé TreeMig-LAb, a donné les résultats les plus réalistes. Ceux-ci étaient comparables aux conséquences déjà observées de l'abandon de terrains agricoles, telles que l'expansion des forêts existantes et la fermeture des clairières. Ce nouveau modèle a ensuite été mis en application dans deux zones d'étude, l'une dans les Alpes suisses et l'autre en Laponie finlandaise, avec divers scénarios de changement climatique. Ces derniers étaient basés sur les prévisions de changement de température pour le siècle prochain établies par l'IPCC et le modèle climatique HadCM3 (ΔT: +1.3, +3.5 et +5.6 °C) et comprenaient une période de stabilisation post-changement climatique de 300 ans. Les résultats ont montré des perturbations majeures dans les deux types de limites de arbres. Avec le scénario de changement climatique le moins extrême, les distributions respectives des espèces ont subi un simple glissement, mais il a fallu plusieurs siècles pour qu'elles atteignent un nouvel équilibre. Avec les autres scénarios, certaines espèces ont disparu de la zone d'étude (p. ex. Pinus cembra dans les Alpes) ou ont vu leur population diminuer parce qu'il n'y avait plus assez de terrains disponibles dans lesquels elles puissent migrer. Le résultat le plus frappant a été le temps de latence dans la réponse de la plupart des espèces, indépendamment du scénario de changement climatique utilisé ou du type de limite des arbres. Finalement, un modèle statistique de l'effet de l'abroutissement par les rennes (Rangifer tarandus) sur la croissance de Pinus sylvestris a été développé, comme première étape en vue de l'implémentation des impacts humains sur la limite boréale des arbres. L'effet attendu était indirect, puisque les rennes réduisent la couverture de lichen sur le sol, dont on attend un effet protecteur contre les rigueurs climatiques. Le modèle a mis en évidence un effet modeste mais significatif, mais étant donné que le lien avec les variables climatiques sous jacentes était peu clair et que le modèle n'était pas appliqué dans l'espace, il n'était pas utilisable tel quel. Le développement du modèle TreeMig-LAb a permis : a) d'établir une méthode pour déduire les paramètres spécifiques de l'équation de croissance ä partir de données dendrochronologiques, b) de mettre en évidence l'importance de la régénération dans la position de la limite des arbres et la distribution des espèces et c) d'améliorer l'intégration des sciences sociales dans les modèles de paysage. L'application du modèle aux limites alpines et nord-européennes des arbres sous différents scénarios de changement climatique a montré qu'avec la plupart des niveaux d'augmentation de température prévus, la limite des arbres subirait des perturbations majeures, avec des glissements d'aires de répartition et l'extinction potentielle de certaines espèces. Cependant, ces réponses ont montré des temps de latence importants, si bien que ces effets ne seraient pas visibles avant des décennies et pourraient mettre plusieurs siècles à se stabiliser.

Pain and beliefs after musuloskeletal trauma: Complex relationships during the first year of rehabilitation

Introduction.- Pain and beliefs have an influence on the patient's course in rehabilitation and their relationships are complex. The aim of this study was to understand the relationships between pain at admission and the evolution of beliefs during rehabilitation as well as the relationships between pain and beliefs one year after rehabilitation.Patients and methods.- Six hundred and thirty-one consecutive patients admitted in rehabilitation after musculoskeletal trauma, were included and assessed at admission, at discharge and one year after discharge. Pain was measured by VAS (Visual Analogical Scale) and beliefs by judgement on Lickert scales. Four kinds of beliefs were evaluated: fear of a severe origin of pain, fear of movement, fear of pain and feeling of distress (loss of control). The association between pain and beliefs was assessed by logistic regressions, adjusted for gender, age, native language, education and bio-psycho-social complexity.Results.- At discharge, 44% of patients felt less distressed by pain, 34% are reinsured with regard to their fear of a severe origin of pain, 38% have less fear of pain and 33% have less fear of movement. The higher the pain at admission, the higher the probability that the distress diminished, this being true up to a threshold (70 mm/100) beyond which there was a plateau. At one year, the higher the pain, the more dysfunctional the fears.Discussion.- The relationships between pain and beliefs are complex and may change all along rehabilitation. During hospitalization, one could hope that the patient would be reinsured and would gain self-control again, if pain does not exceed a certain threshold. After one year, high pain increases the risk of dysfunctional beliefs. For clinical practice, these data suggest to think in terms of the more accessible "entrance door", act against pain and/or against beliefs, adpated to each patient.

Extinction debt of high-mountain plants under 21st-century climate change

Quantitative estimates of the range loss of mountain plants under climate change have so far mostly relied on static geographical projections of species' habitat shifts(1-3). Here, we use a hybrid model(4) that combines such projections with simulations of demography and seed dispersal to forecast the climate-driven spatio-temporal dynamics of 150 high-mountain plant species across the European Alps. This model predicts average range size reductions of 44-50% by the end of the twenty-first century, which is similar to projections from the most 'optimistic' static model (49%). However, the hybrid model also indicates that population dynamics will lag behind climatic trends and that an average of 40% of the range still occupied at the end of the twenty-first century will have become climatically unsuitable for the respective species, creating an extinction debt(5,6). Alarmingly, species endemic to the Alps seem to face the highest range losses. These results caution against optimistic conclusions from moderate range size reductions observed during the twenty-first century as they are likely to belie more severe longer-term effects of climate warming on mountain plants.

Defining the level of evidence for technology adoption in the localized prostate cancer pathway.

New technologies in prostate cancer are attempting to change the current prostate cancer pathway by aiming to reduce harms while maintaining the benefits associated with screening, diagnosis, and treatment. In this article, we discuss the optimal evaluation that new technologies should undergo to provide level 1 evidence typically required to change the practice. With this in mind, we focus on feasible and pragmatic trials that could be delivered in a timely fashion by many centers while retaining primary outcomes that focus on clinically meaningful outcomes.

First day of an oil spill on the open sea: early mass transfers of hydrocarbons to air and water.

During the first hours after release of petroleum at sea, crude oil hydrocarbons partition rapidly into air and water. However, limited information is available about very early evaporation and dissolution processes. We report on the composition of the oil slick during the first day after a permitted, unrestrained 4.3 m(3) oil release conducted on the North Sea. Rapid mass transfers of volatile and soluble hydrocarbons were observed, with >50% of ≤C17 hydrocarbons disappearing within 25 h from this oil slick of <10 km(2) area and <10 μm thickness. For oil sheen, >50% losses of ≤C16 hydrocarbons were observed after 1 h. We developed a mass transfer model to describe the evolution of oil slick chemical composition and water column hydrocarbon concentrations. The model was parametrized based on environmental conditions and hydrocarbon partitioning properties estimated from comprehensive two-dimensional gas chromatography (GC×GC) retention data. The model correctly predicted the observed fractionation of petroleum hydrocarbons in the oil slick resulting from evaporation and dissolution. This is the first report on the broad-spectrum compositional changes in oil during the first day of a spill at the sea surface. Expected outcomes under other environmental conditions are discussed, as well as comparisons to other models.

In vivo measurements of atrial repolarization alternans based on standard pacemaker technology

It has been shown that repolarization alternans, a beat-to-beat alternation in action potential duration, enhances dispersion of repolarization above a critical heart rate and promotes susceptibility to ventricular arrhythmias. It is unknown whether repolarization alternans is measurable in the atria using standard pacemakers and whether it plays a role in promoting atrial fibrillation. In this work, atrial repolarization alternans amplitude and periodicity are studied in a sheep model of pacing-induced atrial fibrillation. Two pacemakers, each with one right atrial and ventricular lead, were implanted in 4 male sheep after ablation of the atrioventricular junction. The first one was used to deliver rapid pacing for measurements of right atrial repolarization alternans and the second one to record a unipolar electrogram. Atrial repolarization alternans appeared rate-dependent and its amplitude increased as a function of pacing rate. Repolarization alternans was intermittent but no periodicity was detected. An increase of repolarization alternans preceding episodes of non-sustained atrial fibrillation suggests that repolarization alternans is a promising parameter for assessment of atrial fibrillation susceptibility.

Niche, distribution and global change : modeling insights into biogeography and conservation biology Olivier Broennimann

RESUME Les évidences montrant que les changements globaux affectent la biodiversité s'accumulent. Les facteurs les plus influant dans ce processus sont les changements et destructions d'habitat, l'expansion des espèces envahissantes et l'impact des changements climatiques. Une évaluation pertinente de la réponse des espèces face à ces changements est essentielle pour proposer des mesures permettant de réduire le déclin actuel de la biodiversité. La modélisation de la répartition d'espèces basée sur la niche (NBM) est l'un des rares outils permettant cette évaluation. Néanmoins, leur application dans le contexte des changements globaux repose sur des hypothèses restrictives et demande une interprétation critique. Ce travail présente une série d'études de cas investiguant les possibilités et limitations de cette approche pour prédire l'impact des changements globaux. Deux études traitant des menaces sur les espèces rares et en danger d'extinction sont présentées. Les caractéristiques éco-géographiques de 118 plantes avec un haut degré de priorité de conservation sont revues. La prévalence des types de rareté sont analysées en relation avec leur risque d'extinction UICN. La revue souligne l'importance de la conservation à l'échelle régionale. Une évaluation de la rareté à échelle globale peut être trompeuse pour certaine espèces car elle ne tient pas en compte des différents degrés de rareté que présente une espèce à différentes échelles spatiales. La deuxième étude test une approche pour améliorer l'échantillonnage d'espèces rares en incluant des phases itératives de modélisation et d'échantillonnage sur le terrain. L'application de l'approche en biologie de la conservation (illustrée ici par le cas du chardon bleu, Eryngium alpinum), permettrait de réduire le temps et les coûts d'échantillonnage. Deux études sur l'impact des changements climatiques sur la faune et la flore africaine sont présentées. La première étude évalue la sensibilité de 227 mammifères africains face aux climatiques d'ici 2050. Elle montre qu'un nombre important d'espèces pourrait être bientôt en danger d'extinction et que les parcs nationaux africains (principalement ceux situé en milieux xériques) pourraient ne pas remplir leur mandat de protection de la biodiversité dans le futur. La seconde étude modélise l'aire de répartition en 2050 de 975 espèces de plantes endémiques du sud de l'Afrique. L'étude propose l'inclusion de méthodes améliorant la prédiction des risques liés aux changements climatiques. Elle propose également une méthode pour estimer a priori la sensibilité d'une espèce aux changements climatiques à partir de ses propriétés écologiques et des caractéristiques de son aire de répartition. Trois études illustrent l'utilisation des modèles dans l'étude des invasions biologiques. Une première étude relate l'expansion de la laitue sáuvage (Lactuca serriola) vers le nord de l'Europe en lien avec les changements du climat depuis 250 ans. La deuxième étude analyse le potentiel d'invasion de la centaurée tachetée (Centaures maculosa), une mauvaise herbe importée en Amérique du nord vers 1890. L'étude apporte la preuve qu'une espèce envahissante peut occuper une niche climatique différente après introduction sur un autre continent. Les modèles basés sur l'aire native prédisent de manière incorrecte l'entier de l'aire envahie mais permettent de prévoir les aires d'introductions potentielles. Une méthode alternative, incluant la calibration du modèle à partir des deux aires où l'espèce est présente, est proposée pour améliorer les prédictions de l'invasion en Amérique du nord. Je présente finalement une revue de la littérature sur la dynamique de la niche écologique dans le temps et l'espace. Elle synthétise les récents développements théoriques concernant le conservatisme de la niche et propose des solutions pour améliorer la pertinence des prédictions d'impact des changements climatiques et des invasions biologiques. SUMMARY Evidences are accumulating that biodiversity is facing the effects of global change. The most influential drivers of change in ecosystems are land-use change, alien species invasions and climate change impacts. Accurate projections of species' responses to these changes are needed to propose mitigation measures to slow down the on-going erosion of biodiversity. Niche-based models (NBM) currently represent one of the only tools for such projections. However, their application in the context of global changes relies on restrictive assumptions, calling for cautious interpretations. In this thesis I aim to assess the effectiveness and shortcomings of niche-based models for the study of global change impacts on biodiversity through the investigation of specific, unsolved limitations and suggestion of new approaches. Two studies investigating threats to rare and endangered plants are presented. I review the ecogeographic characteristic of 118 endangered plants with high conservation priority in Switzerland. The prevalence of rarity types among plant species is analyzed in relation to IUCN extinction risks. The review underlines the importance of regional vs. global conservation and shows that a global assessment of rarity might be misleading for some species because it can fail to account for different degrees of rarity at a variety of spatial scales. The second study tests a modeling framework including iterative steps of modeling and field surveys to improve the sampling of rare species. The approach is illustrated with a rare alpine plant, Eryngium alpinum and shows promise for complementing conservation practices and reducing sampling costs. Two studies illustrate the impacts of climate change on African taxa. The first one assesses the sensitivity of 277 mammals at African scale to climate change by 2050 in terms of species richness and turnover. It shows that a substantial number of species could be critically endangered in the future. National parks situated in xeric ecosystems are not expected to meet their mandate of protecting current species diversity in the future. The second study model the distribution in 2050 of 975 endemic plant species in southern Africa. The study proposes the inclusion of new methodological insights improving the accuracy and ecological realism of predictions of global changes studies. It also investigates the possibility to estimate a priori the sensitivity of a species to climate change from the geographical distribution and ecological proprieties of the species. Three studies illustrate the application of NBM in the study of biological invasions. The first one investigates the Northwards expansion of Lactuca serriola L. in Europe during the last 250 years in relation with climate changes. In the last two decades, the species could not track climate change due to non climatic influences. A second study analyses the potential invasion extent of spotted knapweed, a European weed first introduced into North America in the 1890s. The study provides one of the first empirical evidence that an invasive species can occupy climatically distinct niche spaces following its introduction into a new area. Models fail to predict the current full extent of the invasion, but correctly predict areas of introduction. An alternative approach, involving the calibration of models with pooled data from both ranges, is proposed to improve predictions of the extent of invasion on models based solely on the native range. I finally present a review on the dynamic nature of ecological niches in space and time. It synthesizes the recent theoretical developments to the niche conservatism issues and proposes solutions to improve confidence in NBM predictions of the impacts of climate change and species invasions on species distributions.

Safety of artemether-lumefantrine exposure in first trimester of pregnancy: an observational cohort.

BACKGROUND: There is limited data available regarding safety profile of artemisinins in early pregnancy. They are, therefore, not recommended by WHO as a first-line treatment for malaria in first trimester due to associated embryo-foetal toxicity in animal studies. The study assessed birth outcome among pregnant women inadvertently exposed to artemether-lumefantrine (AL) during first trimester in comparison to those of women exposed to other anti-malarial drugs or no drug at all during the same period of pregnancy. METHODS: Pregnant women with gestational age <20 weeks were recruited from Maternal Health clinics or from monthly house visits (demographic surveillance), and followed prospectively until delivery. RESULTS: 2167 pregnant women were recruited and 1783 (82.3%) completed the study until delivery. 319 (17.9%) used anti-malarials in first trimester, of whom 172 (53.9%) used (AL), 78 (24.4%) quinine, 66 (20.7%) sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP) and 11 (3.4%) amodiaquine. Quinine exposure in first trimester was associated with an increased risk of miscarriage/stillbirth (OR 2.5; 1.3-5.1) and premature birth (OR 2.6; 1.3-5.3) as opposed to AL with (OR 1.4; 0.8-2.5) for miscarriage/stillbirth and (OR 0.9; 0.5-1.8) for preterm birth. Congenital anomalies were identified in 4 exposure groups namely AL only (1/164[0.6%]), quinine only (1/70[1.4%]), SP (2/66[3.0%]), and non-anti-malarial exposure group (19/1464[1.3%]). CONCLUSION: Exposure to AL in first trimester was more common than to any other anti-malarial drugs. Quinine exposure was associated with adverse pregnancy outcomes which was not the case following other anti-malarial intake. Since AL and quinine were used according to their availability rather than to disease severity, it is likely that the effect observed was related to the drug and not to the disease itself. Even with this caveat, a change of policy from quinine to AL for the treatment of uncomplicated malaria during the whole pregnancy period could be already envisaged.

Early clarification processes in clients presenting with borderline personality disorder: Relations with symptom level and change

Clarification-Oriented Psychotherapy (COP), an integrative treatment form with a basis in process-experiential psychotherapy, is particularly relevant for clients with Personality Disorders (PDs). We argue here that two related core therapeutic COP principles, "dual action regulation" and "interactional games" have consequences for symptom severity and therapeutic outcome for clients with PDs. A high quality COP clarification process requires that client's interactional games may be quickly assessed and treated in all (preferably early) therapy sessions. These processes can be observed and measured using the observer-rated Bochum Process and Relationship Rating Scales (BPRRS) which measure both clients' and therapists' contributions to the quality of the clarification processes engaged in therapy. This measure has been successfully applied to COP-therapies, but not, as yet, to therapies other than experiential, nor to specific client populations such as borderline personality disorder. The present study is a first attempt to evaluate the application of COP processes to other therapies and populations. We measured action regulation and interactional games using the BPRRS during intake sessions of a 10-session psychodynamic treatment of borderline personality disorder for a total of N = 30 clients and N = 8 therapists. Significant relationships were found between the client's degree of interactional games and both pretherapy symptom level and symptom change across therapy. These results are discussed in the context of Clarification-Oriented Psychotherapy, and more generally Person-Centered and Process-Experiential Psychotherapies. The potential relevance of the findings for psychodynamic psychotherapists are explored as well as the potential usefulness of taking into account a detailed analysis of interactional games for the training of psychotherapists working with any model of therapy working with clients presenting with BPD.