Prognostic and predictive value of centrally reviewed Ki-67 labeling index in postmenopausal women with endocrine-responsive breast cancer: results from Breast International Group Trial 1-98 comparing adjuvant tamoxifen with letrozole.

PURPOSE: To evaluate the prognostic and predictive value of Ki-67 labeling index (LI) in a trial comparing letrozole (Let) with tamoxifen (Tam) as adjuvant therapy in postmenopausal women with early breast cancer. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Breast International Group (BIG) trial 1-98 randomly assigned 8,010 patients to four treatment arms comparing Let and Tam with sequences of each agent. Of 4,922 patients randomly assigned to receive 5 years of monotherapy with either agent, 2,685 had primary tumor material available for central pathology assessment of Ki-67 LI by immunohistochemistry and had tumors confirmed to express estrogen receptors after central review. The prognostic and predictive value of centrally measured Ki-67 LI on disease-free survival (DFS) were assessed among these patients using proportional hazards modeling, with Ki-67 LI values dichotomized at the median value of 11%. RESULTS: Higher values of Ki-67 LI were associated with adverse prognostic factors and with worse DFS (hazard ratio [HR; high:low] = 1.8; 95% CI, 1.4 to 2.3). The magnitude of the treatment benefit for Let versus Tam was greater among patients with high tumor Ki-67 LI (HR [Let:Tam] = 0.53; 95% CI, 0.39 to 0.72) than among patients with low tumor Ki-67 LI (HR [Let:Tam] = 0.81; 95% CI, 0.57 to 1.15; interaction P = .09). CONCLUSION: Ki-67 LI is confirmed as a prognostic factor in this study. High Ki-67 LI levels may identify a patient group that particularly benefits from initial Let adjuvant therapy.

New prognostic factors and calculators for outcome prediction in patients with recurrent glioblastoma: A pooled analysis of EORTC Brain Tumour Group phase I and II clinical trials.

BACKGROUND: Prognostic models have been developed to predict survival of patients with newly diagnosed glioblastoma (GBM). To improve predictions, models should be updated with information at the recurrence. We performed a pooled analysis of European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC) trials on recurrent glioblastoma to validate existing clinical prognostic factors, identify new markers, and derive new predictions for overall survival (OS) and progression free survival (PFS).¦METHODS: Data from 300 patients with recurrent GBM recruited in eight phase I or II trials conducted by the EORTC Brain Tumour Group were used to evaluate patient's age, sex, World Health Organisation (WHO) performance status (PS), presence of neurological deficits, disease history, use of steroids or anti-epileptics and disease characteristics to predict PFS and OS. Prognostic calculators were developed in patients initially treated by chemoradiation with temozolomide.¦RESULTS: Poor PS and more than one target lesion had a significant negative prognostic impact for both PFS and OS. Patients with large tumours measured by the maximum diameter of the largest lesion (⩾42mm) and treated with steroids at baseline had shorter OS. Tumours with predominant frontal location had better survival. Age and sex did not show independent prognostic values for PFS or OS.¦CONCLUSIONS: This analysis confirms performance status but not age as a major prognostic factor for PFS and OS in recurrent GBM. Patients with multiple and large lesions have an increased risk of death. With these data prognostic calculators with confidence intervals for both medians and fixed time probabilities of survival were derived.

Daily energy expenditure in free-living conditions in obese and non-obese children: comparison of doubly labelled water (2H2(18)O) method and heart-rate monitoring.

OBJECTIVE: To compare the heart-rate monitoring with the doubly labelled water (2H2(18)O) method to estimate total daily energy expenditure in obese and non-obese children. DESIGN: Cross sectional study of obese and normal weight children. SUBJECTS: 13 prepubertal children: six obese (4M, 2F, 9.1 +/- 1.5 years, 47.3 +/- 9.7 kg) and seven non-obese (3M, 4F, 9.3 +/- 0.6 years, 31.8 +/- 3.2 kg). MEASUREMENTS: Total daily energy expenditure was assessed by means of the doubly labelled water method (TEEDLW) and of heart-rate monitoring (TEEHR). RESULTS: TEEHR was significantly (P < 0.05) higher than TEEDLW in obese children (9.47 +/- 0.84 MJ/d vs 8.99 +/- 0.63 MJ/d) whereas it was not different in non-obese children (8.43 +/- 2.02 MJ/d vs 8.42 +/- 2.30 MJ/d, P = NS). The difference of TEE assessed by HR monitoring in the obese group averaged 6.2 +/- 4.7%. At the individual level, the degree of agreement (difference between TEEHR and TEEDLW +/- 2s.d.) was low both in obese (-0.36, 1.32 MJ/d) and in non-obese children (-1.30, 1.34 MJ/d). At the group level, the agreement between the two methods was good in nonobese children (95% c.i. for the bias:-0.59, 0.63 MJ/d) but not in obese children (0.04, 0.92 MJ/d). Duration of sleep and energy expenditure during resting and physical activity were not significantly different in the two groups. Patterns of heart-rate (or derived energy expenditure) during the day-time were similar in obese and non-obese children. CONCLUSION: The HR monitoring technique provides an estimation of TEE close to that assessed by the DLW method in non-obese prepubertal children. In comparison with DLW, the HR monitoring method yields a greater TEE value in obese children.

Reexamination of the relationship of resting metabolic rate to fat-free mass and to the metabolically active components of fat-free mass in humans.

The ratio of resting metabolic rate (RMR) to fat-free mass (FFM) is often used to compare individuals of different body sizes. Because RMR has not been well described over the full range of FFM, a literature review was conducted among groups with a wide range of FFM. It included 31 data sets comprising a total of 1111 subjects: 118 infants and preschoolers, 323 adolescents, and 670 adults; FFM ranged from 2.8 to 106 kg. The relationship of RMR to FFM was found to be nonlinear and average slopes of the regression equations of the three groups differed significantly (P less than 0.0001). For only the youngest group did the intercept approach zero. The lower slopes of RMR on FFM, at higher measures of FFM, corresponded to relatively greater proportions of less metabolically active muscle mass and to lesser proportions of more metabolically active nonmuscle organ mass. Because the contribution of FFM to RMR is not constant, an arithmetic error is introduced when the ratio of RMR to FFM is used. Hence, alternative methods should be used to compare individuals with markedly different FFM.

Clinical Application of Prognostic Gene Expression Signature in Fusion Gene-Negative Rhabdomyosarcoma: A Report from the Children's Oncology Group.

PURPOSE: Pediatric rhabdomyosarcoma (RMS) has two common histologic subtypes: embryonal (ERMS) and alveolar (ARMS). PAX-FOXO1 fusion gene status is a more reliable prognostic marker than alveolar histology, whereas fusion gene-negative (FN) ARMS patients are clinically similar to ERMS patients. A five-gene expression signature (MG5) previously identified two diverse risk groups within the fusion gene-negative RMS (FN-RMS) patients, but this has not been independently validated. The goal of this study was to test whether expression of the MG5 metagene, measured using a technical platform that can be applied to routine pathology material, would correlate with outcome in a new cohort of patients with FN-RMS. EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN: Cases were taken from the Children's Oncology Group (COG) D9803 study of children with intermediate-risk RMS, and gene expression profiling for the MG5 genes was performed using the nCounter assay. The MG5 score was correlated with clinical and pathologic characteristics as well as overall and event-free survival. RESULTS: MG5 standardized score showed no significant association with any of the available clinicopathologic variables. The MG5 signature score showed a significant correlation with overall (N = 57; HR, 7.3; 95% CI, 1.9-27.0; P = 0.003) and failure-free survival (N = 57; HR, 6.1; 95% CI, 1.9-19.7; P = 0.002). CONCLUSIONS: This represents the first, validated molecular prognostic signature for children with FN-RMS who otherwise have intermediate-risk disease. The capacity to measure the expression of a small number of genes in routine pathology material and apply a simple mathematical formula to calculate the MG5 metagene score provides a clear path toward better risk stratification in future prospective clinical trials. Clin Cancer Res; 21(20); 4733-9. ©2015 AACR.

Methotrexate Is Not Superior to Placebo for Inducing Steroid-Free Remission, but Induces Steroid-Free Clinical Remission in a Larger Proportion of Patients With Ulcerative Colitis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Parenteral methotrexate is an effective treatment for patients with Crohn's disease, but has never been adequately evaluated in patients with ulcerative colitis (UC). We conducted a randomized controlled trial to determine its safety and efficacy in patients with steroid-dependent UC. METHODS: We performed a double-blind, placebo-controlled trial to evaluate the efficacy of parenteral methotrexate (25 mg/wk) in 111 patients with corticosteroid-dependent UC at 26 medical centers in Europe from 2007 through 2013. Patients were given prednisone (10 to 40 mg/d) when the study began and were randomly assigned to groups (1:1) given placebo or methotrexate (intramuscularly or subcutaneously, 25 mg weekly) for 24 weeks. The primary end point was steroid-free remission (defined as a Mayo score ≤2 with no item >1 and complete withdrawal of steroids) at week 16. Secondary endpoints included clinical remission (defined as a Mayo clinical subscore ≤2 with no item >1) and endoscopic healing without steroids at weeks 16 and/or 24, remission without steroids at week 24, and remission at both weeks 16 and 24. RESULTS: Steroid-free remission at week 16 was achieved by 19 of 60 patients given methotrexate (31.7%) and 10 of 51 patients given placebo (19.6%)-a difference of 12.1% (95% confidence interval [CI]: -4.0% to 28.1%; P = .15). The proportion of patients in steroid-free clinical remission at week 16 was 41.7% in the methotrexate group and 23.5% in the placebo group, for a difference of 18.1% (95% CI: 1.1% to 35.2%; P = .04). The proportions of patients with steroid-free endoscopic healing at week 16 were 35% in the methotrexate group and 25.5% in the placebo group-a difference of 9.5% (95% CI: -7.5% to 26.5%; P = .28). No differences were observed in other secondary end points. More patients receiving placebo discontinued the study because of adverse events (47.1%), mostly caused by UC, than patients receiving methotrexate (26.7%; P = .03). A higher proportion of patients in the methotrexate group had nausea and vomiting (21.7%) than in the placebo group (3.9%; P = .006). CONCLUSIONS: In a randomized controlled trial, parenteral methotrexate was not superior to placebo for induction of steroid-free remission in patients with UC. However, methotrexate induced clinical remission without steroids in a significantly larger percentage of patients, resulting in fewer withdrawals from therapy due to active UC. ClinicalTrials.gov ID NCT00498589.

Prognostic factors for progression-free and overall survival in advanced biliary tract cancer.

BACKGROUND: Biliary tract cancer is an uncommon cancer with a poor outcome. We assembled data from the National Cancer Research Institute (UK) ABC-02 study and 10 international studies to determine prognostic outcome characteristics for patients with advanced disease. METHODS: Multivariable analyses of the final dataset from the ABC-02 study were carried out. All variables were simultaneously included in a Cox proportional hazards model, and backward elimination was used to produce the final model (using a significance level of 10%), in which the selected variables were associated independently with outcome. This score was validated externally by receiver operating curve (ROC) analysis using the independent international dataset. RESULTS: A total of 410 patients were included from the ABC-02 study and 753 from the international dataset. An overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) Cox model was derived from the ABC-02 study. White blood cells, haemoglobin, disease status, bilirubin, neutrophils, gender, and performance status were considered prognostic for survival (all with P < 0.10). Patients with metastatic disease {hazard ratio (HR) 1.56 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.20-2.02]} and Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status (ECOG PS) 2 had worse survival [HR 2.24 (95% CI 1.53-3.28)]. In a dataset restricted to patients who received cisplatin and gemcitabine with ECOG PS 0 and 1, only haemoglobin, disease status, bilirubin, and neutrophils were associated with PFS and OS. ROC analysis suggested the models generated from the ABC-02 study had a limited prognostic value [6-month PFS: area under the curve (AUC) 62% (95% CI 57-68); 1-year OS: AUC 64% (95% CI 58-69)]. CONCLUSION: These data propose a set of prognostic criteria for outcome in advanced biliary tract cancer derived from the ABC-02 study that are validated in an international dataset. Although these findings establish the benchmark for the prognostic evaluation of patients with ABC and confirm the value of longheld clinical observations, the ability of the model to correctly predict prognosis is limited and needs to be improved through identification of additional clinical and molecular markers.