219 resultados para Exponential smoothing methods
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Since the 1990's, cheating athletes have abused substances to increase their oxygen transport capabilities; among these substances, recombinant EPO is the most well known. Currently, other investigational pharmaceutical products are able to produce an effect similar to EPO but without having chemical structures related to EPO; these are the synthetic erythropoiesis stimulating agents (ESAs). Peginesatide (also known as Hematide?) is being developed by Affymax and Takeda and, if approved by regulatory authorities, could soon be released on the international market. To detect potential athletic abuse of this product and deter athletes who consider cheating, we initiated a collaboration to implement a detection test for anti-doping purposes. Peginesatide is a synthetic, PEGylated, investigational, peptide-based erythropoiesis-stimulating agent that is designed and engineered to stimulate specifically the erythropoietin receptor dimer that governs erythropoiesis. It is undetectable using current anti-doping tests due to its lack of sequence homology to EPO. To detect and deter potential abuse of peginesatide, we initiated an industry/antidoping laboratory collaboration to develop and validate screening and confirmation assays so that they would be available before peginesatide reaches the market. We describe a screening ELISA and a confirmation assay consisting of immune-purification followed by separation with SDS-PAGE and revelation with Western double blotting. Both assays can detect 0.5 ng/mL concentrations of peginesatide in blood samples, enabling detection for several days after administration of a physiologically relevant dose. This initial report describes experimental characterization of these assays, including testing with a blinded set of samples from a clinical study conducted in healthy volunteers.
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A survey of medical ambulatory practice was carried out in February-March 1981 in the two Swiss cantons of Vaud and Fribourg (total population: 700,000), in which 205 physicians participated. The methodology used was inspired from the U.S. National Ambulatory Medical Care Survey, the data collection instrument of which was adapted to our conditions; in addition, data were gathered on all referrals prescribed by 154 physicians during two weeks. (The instruments used are presented.) The potential and limits of this type of survey are discussed, as well as the representativity of the participating physicians and of the recorded visits, which are a systematic sample of over 43,000 visits.
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This paper provides a new and accessible approach to establishing certain results concerning the discounted penalty function. The direct approach consists of two steps. In the first step, closed-form expressions are obtained in the special case in which the claim amount distribution is a combination of exponential distributions. A rational function is useful in this context. For the second step, one observes that the family of combinations of exponential distributions is dense. Hence, it suffices to reformulate the results of the first step to obtain general results. The surplus process has downward and upward jumps, modeled by two independent compound Poisson processes. If the distribution of the upward jumps is exponential, a series of new results can be obtained with ease. Subsequently, certain results of Gerber and Shiu [H. U. Gerber and E. S. W. Shiu, North American Actuarial Journal 2(1): 48–78 (1998)] can be reproduced. The two-step approach is also applied when an independent Wiener process is added to the surplus process. Certain results are related to Zhang et al. [Z. Zhang, H. Yang, and S. Li, Journal of Computational and Applied Mathematics 233: 1773–1 784 (2010)], which uses different methods.
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This article uses a mixed methods design to investigate the effects of social influence on family formation in a sample of eastern and western German young adults at an early stage of their family formation. Theoretical propositions on the importance of informal interaction for fertility and family behavior are still rarely supported by systematic empirical evidence. Major problems are the correct identification of salient relationships and the comparability of social networks across population subgroups. This article addresses the two issues through a combination of qualitative and quantitative data collection and analysis. In-depth interviewing, network charts, and network grids are used to map individual personal relationships and their influence on family formation decisions. In addition, an analysis of friendship dyads is provided.
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PURPOSE: The origin of the slow component is not fully understood. The mechanical hypothesis is one of the potential factors, because an increase in external mechanical work with fatigue was previously reported for a constant velocity run. The purpose of this study was to determine whether a change in mechanical work could occur during the development of the VO2 slow component under the effect of fatigue. METHODS: Twelve regional-level competitive runners performed a square-wave transition, corresponding to 95% of the speed associated with peak VO2 obtained during an incremental test. The VO2 response was fit with a classical model including two exponential functions. A specific treadmill with three-dimensional force transducers was used to measure the ground reaction force. Kinetic work (W(kin)), potential work (W(pot)), external work (W(ext)), and an index of internal work (W(int)) per unit of distance were quantified continuously. RESULTS: During the slow component of VO2, a significant increase in W (P< 0.01), no change in W, and a significant decrease in W and W index (P< 0.05, P< 0.001, respectively) were observed. CONCLUSION: The present study showed that the slow component of VO2 did not result partly from a change in mechanical work under the effect of fatigue. Nevertheless, the decrease in stride frequency (P< 0.001) and contact time (P< 0.001) suggested an alternative mechanical explanation. The slow component during running may be due to the cost of generating force or to alterations in the storage and recoil of elastic energy, and not to the external mechanical work.
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The purpose of this study was to test the hypothesis that athletes having a slower oxygen uptake ( VO(2)) kinetics would benefit more, in terms of time spent near VO(2max), from an increase in the intensity of an intermittent running training (IT). After determination of VO(2max), vVO(2max) (i.e. the minimal velocity associated with VO(2max) in an incremental test) and the time to exhaustion sustained at vVO(2max) ( T(lim)), seven well-trained triathletes performed in random order two IT sessions. The two IT comprised 30-s work intervals at either 100% (IT(100%)) or 105% (IT(105%)) of vVO(2max) with 30-s recovery intervals at 50% of vVO(2max) between each repeat. The parameters of the VO(2) kinetics (td(1), tau(1), A(1), td(2), tau(2), A(2), i.e. time delay, time constant and amplitude of the primary phase and slow component, respectively) during the T(lim) test were modelled with two exponential functions. The highest VO(2) reached was significantly lower ( P<0.01) in IT(100%) run at 19.8 (0.9) km(.)h(-1) [66.2 (4.6) ml(.)min(-1.)kg(-1)] than in IT(105%) run at 20.8 (1.0) km(.)h(-1) [71.1 (4.9) ml(.)min(-1.)kg(-1)] or in the incremental test [71.2 (4.2) ml(.)min(-1.)kg(-1)]. The time sustained above 90% of VO(2max) in IT(105%) [338 (149) s] was significantly higher ( P<0.05) than in IT(100%) [168 (131) s]. The average T(lim) was 244 (39) s, tau(1) was 15.8 (5.9) s and td(2) was 96 (13) s. tau(1) was correlated with the difference in time spent above 90% of VO(2max) ( r=0.91; P<0.01) between IT(105%) and IT(100%). In conclusion, athletes with a slower VO(2) kinetics in a vVO(2max) constant-velocity test benefited more from the 5% rise of IT work intensity, exercising for longer above 90% of VO(2max) when the IT intensity was increased from 100 to 105% of vVO(2max).
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OBJECTIVES: This study sought to establish an accurate and reproducible T(2)-mapping cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) methodology at 3 T and to evaluate it in healthy volunteers and patients with myocardial infarct. BACKGROUND: Myocardial edema affects the T(2) relaxation time on CMR. Therefore, T(2)-mapping has been established to characterize edema at 1.5 T. A 3 T implementation designed for longitudinal studies and aimed at guiding and monitoring therapy remains to be implemented, thoroughly characterized, and evaluated in vivo. METHODS: A free-breathing navigator-gated radial CMR pulse sequence with an adiabatic T(2) preparation module and an empirical fitting equation for T(2) quantification was optimized using numerical simulations and was validated at 3 T in a phantom study. Its reproducibility for myocardial T(2) quantification was then ascertained in healthy volunteers and improved using an external reference phantom with known T(2). In a small cohort of patients with established myocardial infarction, the local T(2) value and extent of the edematous region were determined and compared with conventional T(2)-weighted CMR and x-ray coronary angiography, where available. RESULTS: The numerical simulations and phantom study demonstrated that the empirical fitting equation is significantly more accurate for T(2) quantification than that for the more conventional exponential decay. The volunteer study consistently demonstrated a reproducibility error as low as 2 ± 1% using the external reference phantom and an average myocardial T(2) of 38.5 ± 4.5 ms. Intraobserver and interobserver variability in the volunteers were -0.04 ± 0.89 ms (p = 0.86) and -0.23 ± 0.91 ms (p = 0.87), respectively. In the infarction patients, the T(2) in edema was 62.4 ± 9.2 ms and was consistent with the x-ray angiographic findings. Simultaneously, the extent of the edematous region by T(2)-mapping correlated well with that from the T(2)-weighted images (r = 0.91). CONCLUSIONS: The new, well-characterized 3 T methodology enables robust and accurate cardiac T(2)-mapping at 3 T with high spatial resolution, while the addition of a reference phantom improves reproducibility. This technique may be well suited for longitudinal studies in patients with suspected or established heart disease.
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Purpose: to assess among current smokers in Switzerland the willingness to quit and the preferred methods to help quitting smoking. Methods: cross-sectional study including 1265 current smokers (607 women and 658 men). Difficulty quitting smoking and the preferred methods to help quitting smoking were assessed by questionnaire. Results: 89% of women and 84% of men reported being "very difficult" or "difficult" to quit smoking. Almost three quarters of smokers (73% of women and 70% of men) reported some willingness to quit smoking, but less than 25% of them wanted to do so within the next 30 days, and only 64% within the next 6 months. Willingness to quit was stronger among younger smokers while no differences were found for gender, physical activity or education al Javel. The preferred methods to help quitting smoking were personalized counselling by a doctor (51.4%), acupuncture (35.9%); nicotine replacement therapy (37.6%); hypnosis (28.8%); information flyers (24.9%); autogenic training (15.3%); bupropion (15.2%); personalized counselling by a non-doctor (14.7%) and group interventions (13.2%). Acupuncture and hypnosis were more favoured by women, and autogenic training by younger smokers. Still, a sizable fraction (between 19 and 51%) of smokers did not know some of the methods to help quitting smoking. Conclusion: although more than two thirds of Swiss smokers want to quit, only a small fraction wishes to do so in the short term. Setter information regarding the different methods to help quitting is also necessary.
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BACKGROUND: Shared Decision Making (SDM) is increasingly advocated as a model for medical decision making. However, there is still low use of SDM in clinical practice. High impact factor journals might represent an efficient way for its dissemination. We aimed to identify and characterize publication trends of SDM in 15 high impact medical journals. METHODS: We selected the 15 general and internal medicine journals with the highest impact factor publishing original articles, letters and editorials. We retrieved publications from 1996 to 2011 through the full-text search function on each journal website and abstracted bibliometric data. We included publications of any type containing the phrase "shared decision making" or five other variants in their abstract or full text. These were referred to as SDM publications. A polynomial Poisson regression model with logarithmic link function was used to assess the evolution across the period of the number of SDM publications according to publication characteristics. RESULTS: We identified 1285 SDM publications out of 229,179 publications in 15 journals from 1996 to 2011. The absolute number of SDM publications by journal ranged from 2 to 273 over 16 years. SDM publications increased both in absolute and relative numbers per year, from 46 (0.32% relative to all publications from the 15 journals) in 1996 to 165 (1.17%) in 2011. This growth was exponential (P < 0.01). We found fewer research publications (465, 36.2% of all SDM publications) than non-research publications, which included non-systematic reviews, letters, and editorials. The increase of research publications across time was linear. Full-text search retrieved ten times more SDM publications than a similar PubMed search (1285 vs. 119 respectively). CONCLUSION: This review in full-text showed that SDM publications increased exponentially in major medical journals from 1996 to 2011. This growth might reflect an increased dissemination of the SDM concept to the medical community.
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Interpretability and power of genome-wide association studies can be increased by imputing unobserved genotypes, using a reference panel of individuals genotyped at higher marker density. For many markers, genotypes cannot be imputed with complete certainty, and the uncertainty needs to be taken into account when testing for association with a given phenotype. In this paper, we compare currently available methods for testing association between uncertain genotypes and quantitative traits. We show that some previously described methods offer poor control of the false-positive rate (FPR), and that satisfactory performance of these methods is obtained only by using ad hoc filtering rules or by using a harsh transformation of the trait under study. We propose new methods that are based on exact maximum likelihood estimation and use a mixture model to accommodate nonnormal trait distributions when necessary. The new methods adequately control the FPR and also have equal or better power compared to all previously described methods. We provide a fast software implementation of all the methods studied here; our new method requires computation time of less than one computer-day for a typical genome-wide scan, with 2.5 M single nucleotide polymorphisms and 5000 individuals.
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BACKGROUND: Obesity is increasing worldwide because developing countries are adopting Western high-fat foods and sedentary lifestyles. In parallel, in many of them, hypertension is rising more rapidly, particularly with age, than in Western countries. OBJECTIVE: To assess the relationship between adiposity and blood pressure (BP) in a developing country with high average BP (The Seychelles, Indian Ocean, population mainly of African origin) in comparison to a developed country with low average BP (Switzerland, population mainly of Caucasian origin). DESIGN: Cross-sectional health examination surveys based on population random samples. SETTING: The main Seychelles island (Mahé) and two Swiss regions (Vaud-Fribourg and Ticino). SUBJECTS: Three thousand one hundred and sixteen adults (age range 35-64) untreated for hypertension. MEASUREMENTS: Body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC), waist-to-hip ratio (WHR), systolic and diastolic blood pressure (SBP and DBP, mean of two measures). METHODS: Scatterplot smoothing techniques and gender-specific linear regression models. RESULTS: On average, SBP and DBP were found to increase linearly over the whole variation range of BMI, WHR and WC. A modest, but statistically significant linear association was found between each indicator of adiposity and BP levels in separate regression models controlling for age. The regression coefficients were not significantly different between the Seychelles and the two Swiss regions, but were generally higher in women than in men. For the latter, a gain of 1.7 kg/m(2) in BMI, of 4.5 cm in WC or of 3.4% in WHR corresponded to an elevation of 1 mmHg in SBP. For women, corresponding figures were 1.25 kg/m(2), 2.5 cm and 1.8% respectively. Regression coefficients for age reflected a higher effect of this variable on both SBP and DBP in the Seychelles than in Switzerland. CONCLUSION: These findings suggest a stable linear relation of adiposity with BP, independent of age and body fat distribution, across developed and developing countries. The more rapid increase of BP with age observed in the latter countries are likely to reflect higher genetic susceptibility and/or higher cumulative exposure to another risk factor than adiposity.
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Objectives: The study objective was to derive reference pharmacokinetic curves of antiretroviral drugs (ART) based on available population pharmacokinetic (Pop-PK) studies that can be used to optimize therapeutic drug monitoring guided dosage adjustment.¦Methods: A systematic search of Pop-PK studies of 8 ART in adults was performed in PubMed. To simulate reference PK curves, a summary of the PK parameters was obtained for each drug based on meta-analysis approach. Most models used one-compartment model, thus chosen as reference model. Models using bi-exponential disposition were simplified to one-compartment, since the first distribution phase was rapid and not determinant for the description of the terminal elimination phase, mostly relevant for this project. Different absorption were standardized for first-order absorption processes.¦Apparent clearance (CL), apparent volume of distribution of the terminal phase (Vz) and absorption rate constant (ka) and inter-individual variability were pooled into summary mean value, weighted by number of plasma levels; intra-individual variability was weighted by number of individuals in each study.¦Simulations based on summary PK parameters served to construct concentration PK percentiles (NONMEM®).¦Concordance between individual and summary parameters was assessed graphically using Forest-plots. To test robustness, difference in simulated curves based on published and summary parameters was calculated using efavirenz as probe drug.¦Results: CL was readily accessible from all studies. For studies with one-compartment, Vz was central volume of distribution; for two-compartment, Vz was CL/λz. ka was directly used or derived based on the mean absorption time (MAT) for more complicated absorption models, assuming MAT=1/ka.¦The value of CL for each drug was in excellent agreement throughout all Pop-PK models, suggesting that minimal concentration derived from summary models was adequately characterized. The comparison of the concentration vs. time profile for efavirenz between published and summary PK parameters revealed not more than 20% difference. Although our approach appears adequate for estimation of elimination phase, the simplification of absorption phase might lead to small bias shortly after drug intake.¦Conclusions: Simulated reference percentile curves based on such an approach represent a useful tool for interpretating drug concentrations. This Pop-PK meta-analysis approach should be further validated and could be extended to elaborate more sophisticated computerized tool for the Bayesian TDM of ART.
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The generation of an antigen-specific T-lymphocyte response is a complex multi-step process. Upon T-cell receptor-mediated recognition of antigen presented by activated dendritic cells, naive T-lymphocytes enter a program of proliferation and differentiation, during the course of which they acquire effector functions and may ultimately become memory T-cells. A major goal of modern immunology is to precisely identify and characterize effector and memory T-cell subpopulations that may be most efficient in disease protection. Sensitive methods are required to address these questions in exceedingly low numbers of antigen-specific lymphocytes recovered from clinical samples, and not manipulated in vitro. We have developed new techniques to dissect immune responses against viral or tumor antigens. These allow the isolation of various subsets of antigen-specific T-cells (with major histocompatibility complex [MHC]-peptide multimers and five-color FACS sorting) and the monitoring of gene expression in individual cells (by five-cell reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction [RT-PCR]). We can also follow their proliferative life history by flow-fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) analysis of average telomere length. Recently, using these tools, we have identified subpopulations of CD8+ T-lymphocytes with distinct proliferative history and partial effector-like properties. Our data suggest that these subsets descend from recently activated T-cells and are committed to become differentiated effector T-lymphocytes.
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Carbon isotope ratio of androgens in urine specimens is routinely determined to exclude an abuse of testosterone or testosterone prohormones by athletes. Increasing application of gas chromatography/combustion/isotope ratio mass spectrometry (GC/C/IRMS) in the last years for target and systematic investigations on samples has resulted in the demand for rapid sample throughput as well as high selectivity in the extraction process particularly in the case of conspicuous samples. For that purpose, we present herein the complimentary use of an SPE-based assay and an HPLC fractionation method as a two-stage strategy for the isolation of testosterone metabolites and endogenous reference compounds prior to GC/C/IRMS analyses. Assays validation demonstrated acceptable performance in terms of intermediate precision (range: 0.1-0.4 per thousand) and Bland-Altman analyses revealed no significant bias (0.2 per thousand). For further validation of this two-stage analyses strategy, all the specimens (n=124) collected during a major sport event were processed.