Space-time relatedness and Hamilton's rule for long-lasting behaviors in viscous populations.

Genes affect not only the behavior and fitness of their carriers but also that of other individuals. According to Hamilton's rule, whether a mutant gene will spread in the gene pool depends on the effects of its carrier on the fitness of all individuals in the population, each weighted by its relatedness to the carrier. However, social behaviors may affect not only recipients living in the generation of the actor but also individuals living in subsequent generations. In this note, I evaluate space-time relatedness coefficients for localized dispersal. These relatedness coefficients weight the selection pressures on long-lasting behaviors, which stem from a multigenerational gap between phenotypic expression by actors and the resulting environmental feedback on the fitness of recipients. Explicit values of space-time relatedness coefficients reveal that they can be surprisingly large for typical dispersal rates, even for hundreds of generations in the future.

Appropriateness of therapy for active Crohn's disease: results of a multidisciplinary international Expert Panel (EPACT II)

INTRODUCTION: The development of novel therapies and the increasing number of trials testing management strategies for luminal Crohn's disease (CD) have not filled all the gaps in our knowledge. Thus, in clinical practice, many decisions for CD patients need to be taken without high quality evidence. For this reason, a multidisciplinary European expert panel followed the RAND method to develop explicit criteria for the management of individual patients with active, steroid-dependent (ST-D) and steroid-refractory (ST-R) CD. AIMS & METHODS: Twelve international experts convened in Geneva, Switzerland in December 2007, to rate explicit clinical scenarios, corresponding to real daily practice, on a 9-point scale according to the literature evidence and their own expertise. Median ratings were stratified into three categories: appropriate (7-9), uncertain (4-6) and inappropriate (1-3). RESULTS: Overall, panelists rated 296 indications pertaining to mild-to-moderate, severe, ST-D, and ST-R CD. In anti-TNF naïve patients, budesonide and prednisone were found appropriate for mild-moderate CD, and infliximab (IFX) when those had previously failed or had not been tolerated. In patients with prior success with IFX, this drug with or without co-administration of a thiopurine analog was favored. Other anti-TNFs were appropriate in case of intolerance or resistance to IFX. High doses steroids, IFX or adalimumab were appropriate in severe active CD. Among 105 indications for ST-D or ST-R disease, the panel considered appropriate the thiopurine analogs, methotrexate, IFX, adalimumab and surgery for limited resection, depending on the outcome of prior therapies. Anti-TNFs were generally considered appropriate in ST-R. CONCLUSION: Steroids, including budesonide for mild-to-moderate CD, remain first-line therapies in active luminal CD. Anti-TNFs, in particular IFX with respect to the amount of available evidence, remain second-line for most indications. Thiopurine analogs are preferred to anti-TNFs when steroids are not appropriate, except when anti-TNFs were previously successful. These recommendations are available online (www.epact.ch). A prospective evaluation of these criteria in a large database in Switzerland in underway to validate these criteria.

Groupe thérapeutique de gestion des émotions: un territoire d'acquisition des compétences chez les patientsavec trouble de la personnalité borderline

Dans cet article, nous présenterons le modèle biopsychosocial du trouble de la personnalité borderline et le mettrons en lien avec les critères développés dans les manuels diagnostiques (DSM-IV-TR, CIM-70). Seront ensuite explicité les principaux cadres de prise en charge de la thérapie comportementale-dialectique (TCD), tels que conçus par Marsha M. Linehan. Le modèle des dimensions de l'ouverture émotionnelle permettra d'enrichir la conceptualisation des émotions de la TCD. Nous insisterons particulièrement sur le groupe thérapeutique de Gestion des Émotions, inspiré des principes constitutifs de la TCD. Les pruniers résultats d'une étude pilote et la présentation d'une étude randomisée contrôlée seront discutés, en tenant compte des exigences cliniques et des considérations méthodologiques de l'évaluation des psychothérapies.

Appropriate therapy for fistulizing and fibrostenotic Crohn's disease: results of a multidisciplinary international expert panel (EPACT II)

Introduction Many therapeutic decisions in the management of fistulizing and fibrostenotic Crohn's disease (CD) have to be taken without the benefit of strong scientific evidence. For this reason, explicit appropriateness criteria for CD fistula and stenosis treatment were developed by a multidisciplinary European expert panel in 2004 with the aim of making them easily available on the Internet and thus allowing individual case scenario evaluation; these criteria were updated in 2007. Methods Twelve international experts convened in Geneva, Switzerland in December 2007. Explicit clinical scenarios, corresponding to real daily practice, were rated on a 9-point scale based on evidence from the published literature and panelists' own expertise. Median ratings were stratified into three categories: appropriate (7-9), uncertain (4-6) and inappropriate (1-3). Results Overall, panelists rated 60 indications pertaining to fistulas. Antibiotics, azathioprine/6-mercaptopurine and conservative surgery are the mainstay of therapy for simple and complex fistulas. In the event of previous failure of azathioprine/6-mercaptopurine therapy, methotrexate and infliximab were considered appropriate for complex fistulas. The panel also rated 72 indications related to the management of fibrostenotic CD. The experts considered balloon dilation, if the stricture was endoscopically accessible, stricturoplasty and bowel resection to be appropriate for small bowel fibrostenotic Crohn's disease, and balloon dilation and bowel resection appropriate for fibrostenotic colonic disease. In the presence of an ileocolonic or ileorectal anastomotic stricture of <7 cm, endoscopic balloon dilation, and bowel resection were considered appropriate. Conclusion Antibiotics, azathioprine/6-mercaptopurine, and conservative surgery are the mainstay of therapy for fistulizing Crohn's disease. Infliximab is a therapeutic option in patients without prior response to immunosuppressant therapy. In fibrostenotic Crohn's disease, endoscopic balloon dilation, if feasible, or surgical therapy should be considered. These expert recommendations are available online (www.epact.ch). Prospective evaluation is now needed to test the validity of these appropriateness criteria in clinical practice.

"S'il vous plaît docteur, mettez-moi en arrêt"! Certificats médicaux pour raisons psychologiques ["Doctor please, give me a sick leave"!: medical certificates for psychological reasons].

General practitioners are regularly called to evaluate the psychological work capacity of patients. The implicit motivation behind the explicit reason for requesting a sick leave is linked to the subject's history and the way he transfers it in his professional life. An incapacity to work harbours a variety of challenges for the patient, the physician and their relationship. In order to get a better understanding of all the issues at stake, the doctor should understand the significances that represents the work to the patient and the consequences of a sick leave and its associated transference and countertransference issues.

A stratified approach for modeling the distribution of a threatened ant species in the Swiss National Park

We present models predicting the potential distribution of a threatened ant species, Formica exsecta Nyl., in the Swiss National Park ( SNP). Data to fit the models have been collected according to a random-stratified design with an equal number of replicates per stratum. The basic aim of such a sampling strategy is to allow the formal testing of biological hypotheses about those factors most likely to account for the distribution of the modeled species. The stratifying factors used in this study were: vegetation, slope angle and slope aspect, the latter two being used as surrogates of solar radiation, considered one of the basic requirements of F. exsecta. Results show that, although the basic stratifying predictors account for more than 50% of the deviance, the incorporation of additional non-spatially explicit predictors into the model, as measured in the field, allows for an increased model performance (up to nearly 75%). However, this was not corroborated by permutation tests. Implementation on a national scale was made for one model only, due to the difficulty of obtaining similar predictors on this scale. The resulting map on the national scale suggests that the species might once have had a broader distribution in Switzerland. Reasons for its particular abundance within the SNP might possibly be related to habitat fragmentation and vegetation transformation outside the SNP boundaries.

Hypertension and microvascular remodelling

In the present review, microvascular remodelling refers to alterations in the structure of resistance vessels contributing to elevated systemic vascular resistance in hypertension. We start with some historical aspects, underscoring the importance of Folkow's contribution made half a century ago. We then move to some basic concepts on the biomechanics of blood vessels, and explicit the definitions proposed by Mulvany for specific forms of remodelling, especially inward eutrophic and inward hypertrophic. The available evidence for the existence of remodelled resistance vessels in hypertension comes next, with relatively more weight given to human, in comparison with animal data. Mechanisms are discussed. The impact of antihypertensive drug treatment on remodelling is described, again with emphasis on human data. Some details are given on the three studies to date which point to remodelling of subcutaneous resistance arteries as an independent predictor of cardiovascular risk in hypertensive patients. We terminate by considering the potential role of remodelling in the pathogenesis of end-organ damage and in the perpetuation of hypertension.

Contrasting spatio-temporal climatic niche dynamics during the eastern and western invasions of spotted knapweed in North America

Aim The spotted knapweed (Centaurea stoebe), a plant native to south-east and central Europe, is highly invasive in North America. We investigated the spatio-temporal climatic niche dynamics of the spotted knapweed in North America along two putative eastern and western invasion routes. We then considered the patterns observed in the light of historical, ecological and evolutionary factors. Location Europe and North America. Methods The niche characteristics of the east and west invasive populations of spotted knapweed in North America were determined from documented occurrences over 120 consecutive years (1890-2010). The 2.5 and 97.5 percentiles of values along temperature and precipitation gradients, as given by the two first axes of a principal component axis (PCA), were then calculated. We additionally measured the climatic dissimilarity between invaded and native niches using a multivariate environmental similarity surface (MESS) analysis. Results Along both invasion routes, the species established in regions with climatic conditions that were similar to those in the native range in Europe. An initial spread in ruderal habitats always preceded spread in (semi-)natural habitats. In the east, the niche gradually increased over time until it reached limits similar to the native niche. Conversely, in the west the niche abruptly expanded after an extended time lag into climates not occupied in the native range; only the native cold niche limit was conserved. Main conclusions Our study reveals that different niche dynamics have taken place during the eastern and western invasions. This pattern indicates different combinations of historical, ecological and evolutionary factors in the two ranges. We hypothesize that the lack of a well-developed transportation network in the west at the time of the introduction of spotted knapweed confined the species to a geographically and climatically isolated region. The invasion of dry rangelands may have been favoured during the agricultural transition in the 1930s by release from natural enemies, local adaptation and less competitive vegetation, but further experimental and molecular studies are needed to explain these contrasting niche patterns fully. Our study illustrates the need and benefit of applying large-scale, temporally explicit approaches to understanding biological invasions.

Integration of olfactory information in a spatial representation enabling accurate arm choice in the radial arm maze

The aim of the present study was to determine whether and how rats can use local olfactory cues for spatial orientation. Rats were trained in an eight-arm radial maze under different conditions as defined by the presence or absence of supplementary olfactory cues marking each arm, the availability of distant visuospatial information, and the illumination of the maze (light or darkness). The different visual conditions were designed to dissociate among the effects of light per se and those of visuospatial cues, on the use of olfactory cues for accurate arm choice. Different procedures with modifications of the arrangement of olfactory cues were used to determine if rats formed a representation of the spatial configuration of the olfactory cues and if they could rely on such a representation for accurate arm choice in the radial maze. The present study demonstrated that the use of olfactory cues to direct arm choice in the radial arm maze was critically dependent on the illumination conditions and implied two different modes of processing of olfactory information according to the presence or the absence of light. Olfactory cues were used in an explicit manner and enabled accurate arm choice only in the absence of light. Rats, however, had an implicit memory of the location of the olfactory cues and formed a representation of the spatial position of these cues, whatever the lighting conditions. They did not memorize the spatial configuration of the olfactory cues per se but needed these cues to be linked to the external spatial frame of reference.

Predicting species distributions for conservation decisions.

Species distribution models (SDMs) are increasingly proposed to support conservation decision making. However, evidence of SDMs supporting solutions for on-ground conservation problems is still scarce in the scientific literature. Here, we show that successful examples exist but are still largely hidden in the grey literature, and thus less accessible for analysis and learning. Furthermore, the decision framework within which SDMs are used is rarely made explicit. Using case studies from biological invasions, identification of critical habitats, reserve selection and translocation of endangered species, we propose that SDMs may be tailored to suit a range of decision-making contexts when used within a structured and transparent decision-making process. To construct appropriate SDMs to more effectively guide conservation actions, modellers need to better understand the decision process, and decision makers need to provide feedback to modellers regarding the actual use of SDMs to support conservation decisions. This could be facilitated by individuals or institutions playing the role of 'translators' between modellers and decision makers. We encourage species distribution modellers to get involved in real decision-making processes that will benefit from their technical input; this strategy has the potential to better bridge theory and practice, and contribute to improve both scientific knowledge and conservation outcomes.

Personalized modeling for drug concentration prediction using Support Vector Machine

Building a personalized model to describe the drug concentration inside the human body for each patient is highly important to the clinical practice and demanding to the modeling tools. Instead of using traditional explicit methods, in this paper we propose a machine learning approach to describe the relation between the drug concentration and patients' features. Machine learning has been largely applied to analyze data in various domains, but it is still new to personalized medicine, especially dose individualization. We focus mainly on the prediction of the drug concentrations as well as the analysis of different features' influence. Models are built based on Support Vector Machine and the prediction results are compared with the traditional analytical models.

The role of biotic interactions in shaping distributions and realised assemblages of species: implications for species distribution modelling.

Predicting which species will occur together in the future, and where, remains one of the greatest challenges in ecology, and requires a sound understanding of how the abiotic and biotic environments interact with dispersal processes and history across scales. Biotic interactions and their dynamics influence species' relationships to climate, and this also has important implications for predicting future distributions of species. It is already well accepted that biotic interactions shape species' spatial distributions at local spatial extents, but the role of these interactions beyond local extents (e.g. 10 km(2) to global extents) are usually dismissed as unimportant. In this review we consolidate evidence for how biotic interactions shape species distributions beyond local extents and review methods for integrating biotic interactions into species distribution modelling tools. Drawing upon evidence from contemporary and palaeoecological studies of individual species ranges, functional groups, and species richness patterns, we show that biotic interactions have clearly left their mark on species distributions and realised assemblages of species across all spatial extents. We demonstrate this with examples from within and across trophic groups. A range of species distribution modelling tools is available to quantify species environmental relationships and predict species occurrence, such as: (i) integrating pairwise dependencies, (ii) using integrative predictors, and (iii) hybridising species distribution models (SDMs) with dynamic models. These methods have typically only been applied to interacting pairs of species at a single time, require a priori ecological knowledge about which species interact, and due to data paucity must assume that biotic interactions are constant in space and time. To better inform the future development of these models across spatial scales, we call for accelerated collection of spatially and temporally explicit species data. Ideally, these data should be sampled to reflect variation in the underlying environment across large spatial extents, and at fine spatial resolution. Simplified ecosystems where there are relatively few interacting species and sometimes a wealth of existing ecosystem monitoring data (e.g. arctic, alpine or island habitats) offer settings where the development of modelling tools that account for biotic interactions may be less difficult than elsewhere.

The contribution of patch topology and demographic parameters to PVA predictions: the case of the European tree frog

Population viability analyses (PVA) are increasingly used in metapopulation conservation plans. Two major types of models are commonly used to assess vulnerability and to rank management options: population-based stochastic simulation models (PSM such as RAMAS or VORTEX) and stochastic patch occupancy models (SPOM). While the first set of models relies on explicit intrapatch dynamics and interpatch dispersal to predict population levels in space and time, the latter is based on spatially explicit metapopulation theory where the probability of patch occupation is predicted given the patch area and isolation (patch topology). We applied both approaches to a European tree frog (Hyla arborea) metapopulation in western Switzerland in order to evaluate the concordances of both models and their applications to conservation. Although some quantitative discrepancies appeared in terms of network occupancy and equilibrium population size, the two approaches were largely concordant regarding the ranking of patch values and sensitivities to parameters, which is encouraging given the differences in the underlying paradigms and input data.

Randomized observation periods for the compound Poisson risk model: Dividends

In the framework of the classical compound Poisson process in collective risk theory, we study a modification of the horizontal dividend barrier strategy by introducing random observation times at which dividends can be paid and ruin can be observed. This model contains both the continuous-time and the discrete-time risk model as a limit and represents a certain type of bridge between them which still enables the explicit calculation of moments of total discounted dividend payments until ruin. Numerical illustrations for several sets of parameters are given and the effect of random observation times on the performance of the dividend strategy is studied.

SESAM - a new framework integrating macroecological and species distribution models for predicting spatio-temporal patterns of species assemblages

Two different approaches currently prevail for predicting spatial patterns of species assemblages. The first approach (macroecological modelling, MEM) focuses directly on realised properties of species assemblages, whereas the second approach (stacked species distribution modelling, S-SDM) starts with constituent species to approximate assemblage properties. Here, we propose to unify the two approaches in a single 'spatially-explicit species assemblage modelling' (SESAM) framework. This framework uses relevant species source pool designations, macroecological factors, and ecological assembly rules to constrain predictions of the richness and composition of species assemblages obtained by stacking predictions of individual species distributions. We believe that such a framework could prove useful in many theoretical and applied disciplines of ecology and evolution, both for improving our basic understanding of species assembly across spatio-temporal scales and for anticipating expected consequences of local, regional or global environmental changes. In this paper, we propose such a framework and call for further developments and testing across a broad range of community types in a variety of environments.