Forecasting the effects of global warming on biodiversity

The demand for accurate forecasting of the effects of global warming on biodiversity is growing, but current methods for forecasting have limitations. in this article, we compare and discuss the different uses of four forecasting methods: (1) models that consider species individually, (2) niche-theory models that group species by habitat (more specifically, by environmental conditions under which a species can persist or does persist), (3) general circulation models and coupled ocean-atmosphere-biosphere models, and (4) specics-area curve models that consider all species or large aggregates of species. After outlining the different uses and limitations of these methods, we make eight primary suggestions for improving forecasts. We find that greater use of the fossil record and of modern genetic studies would improve forecasting methods. We note a Quaternary conundrum: While current empirical and theoretical ecological results suggest that many species could be at risk from global warming, during the recent ice ages surprisingly few species became extinct. The potential resolution of this conundrum gives insights into the requirements for more accurate and reliable forecasting. Our eight suggestions also point to constructive synergies in the solution to the different problems.

Flowering date of taxonomic families predicts phenological sensitivity to temperature: Implications for forecasting the effects of climate change on unstudied taxa.

PREMISE OF THE STUDY: Numerous long-term studies in seasonal habitats have tracked interannual variation in first flowering date (FFD) in relation to climate, documenting the effect of warming on the FFD of many species. Despite these efforts, long-term phenological observations are still lacking for many species. If we could forecast responses based on taxonomic affinity, however, then we could leverage existing data to predict the climate-related phenological shifts of many taxa not yet studied. METHODS: We examined phenological time series of 1226 species occurrences (1031 unique species in 119 families) across seven sites in North America and England to determine whether family membership (or family mean FFD) predicts the sensitivity of FFD to standardized interannual changes in temperature and precipitation during seasonal periods before flowering and whether families differ significantly in the direction of their phenological shifts. KEY RESULTS: Patterns observed among species within and across sites are mirrored among family means across sites; early-flowering families advance their FFD in response to warming more than late-flowering families. By contrast, we found no consistent relationships among taxa between mean FFD and sensitivity to precipitation as measured here. CONCLUSIONS: Family membership can be used to identify taxa of high and low sensitivity to temperature within the seasonal, temperate zone plant communities analyzed here. The high sensitivity of early-flowering families (and the absence of early-flowering families not sensitive to temperature) may reflect plasticity in flowering time, which may be adaptive in environments where early-season conditions are highly variable among years.

Mortality among 24,865 workers exposed to polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) in three electrical capacitor manufacturing plants: a ten-year update.

The objective of this analysis was to evaluate mortality among a cohort of 24,865 capacitor-manufacturing workers exposed to polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) at plants in Indiana, Massachusetts, and New York and followed for mortality through 2008. Cumulative PCB exposure was estimated using plant-specific job-exposure matrices. External comparisons to US and state-specific populations used standardized mortality ratios, adjusted for gender, race, age and calendar year. Among long-term workers employed 3 months or longer, within-cohort comparisons used standardized rate ratios and multivariable Poisson regression modeling. Through 2008, more than one million person-years at risk and 8749 deaths were accrued. Among long-term employees, all-cause and all-cancer mortality were not elevated; of the a priori outcomes assessed only melanoma mortality was elevated. Mortality was elevated for some outcomes of a priori interest among subgroups of long-term workers: all cancer, intestinal cancer and amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (women); melanoma (men); melanoma and brain and nervous system cancer (Indiana plant); and melanoma and multiple myeloma (New York plant). Standardized rates of stomach and uterine cancer and multiple myeloma mortality increased with estimated cumulative PCB exposure. Poisson regression modeling showed significant associations with estimated cumulative PCB exposure for prostate and stomach cancer mortality. For other outcomes of a priori interest--rectal, liver, ovarian, breast, and thyroid cancer, non-Hodgkin lymphoma, Alzheimer disease, and Parkinson disease--neither elevated mortality nor positive associations with PCB exposure were observed. Associations between estimated cumulative PCB exposure and stomach, uterine, and prostate cancer and myeloma mortality confirmed our previous positive findings.

BK DNA viral load in plasma: evidence for an association with hemorrhagic cystitis in allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplant recipients.

We performed a case-control study to determine the association of BK plasma viremia with hemorrhagic cystitis (HC) in hematopoietic cell transplant (HCT) recipients. Thirty cases of HC (14 of which occurred after platelet engraftment with documented BK viruria [BK-HC]) were compared with matched controls. Weekly plasma samples were tested for BK virus DNA by polymerase chain reaction (PCR). BK viremia detected before or during the disease was independently associated with HC (adjusted odds ratio = 30, P < .001); BK viremia was even important before clinical symptoms of HC occurred (odds ratio = 11, P < .001). Cases of HC and BK-HC had a significantly higher peak of BK plasma viral load than controls. BK virus was detected by in situ hybridization in bladder biopsies of 2 cases with severe HC and long-lasting BK viremia. BK virus seems to play a role in the development of HC and quantitative detection of BK DNA in plasma appears to be a marker of BK virus disease in HCT recipients.

IL28B polymorphisms, IP-10 and viral load predict virological response to therapy in chronic hepatitis C.

Aliment Pharmacol Ther 2011; 33: 1162-1172 SUMMARY: Background  Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is a major cause of chronic liver disease, cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma and the identification of the predictors of response to antiviral therapy is an important clinical issue. Aim  To determine the independent contribution of factors including IL28B polymorphisms, IFN-gamma inducible protein-10 (IP-10) levels and the homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) score in predicting response to therapy in chronic hepatitis C (CHC). Methods  Multivariate analysis of factors predicting rapid (RVR) and sustained (SVR) virological response in 280 consecutive, treatment-naive CHC patients treated with peginterferon alpha and ribavirin in a prospective multicentre study. Results  Independent predictors of RVR were HCV RNA <400 000 IU/mL (OR 11.37; 95% CI 3.03-42.6), rs12980275 AA (OR 7.09; 1.97-25.56) and IP-10 (OR 0.04; 0.003-0.56) in HCV genotype 1 patients and lower baseline γ-glutamyl-transferase levels (OR = 0.02; 0.0009-0.31) in HCV genotype 3 patients. Independent predictors of SVR were rs12980275 AA (OR 9.68; 3.44-27.18), age <40 years (OR = 4.79; 1.50-15.34) and HCV RNA <400 000 IU/mL (OR 2.74; 1.03-7.27) in HCV genotype 1 patients and rs12980275 AA (OR = 6.26; 1.98-19.74) and age <40 years (OR 5.37; 1.54-18.75) in the 88 HCV genotype 1 patients without a RVR. RVR was by itself predictive of SVR in HCV genotype 1 patients (OR 33.0; 4.06-268.32) and the only independent predictor of SVR in HCV genotype 2 (OR 9.0, 1.72-46.99) or genotype 3 patients (OR 7.8, 1.43-42.67). Conclusions  In HCV genotype 1 patients, IL28B polymorphisms, HCV RNA load and IP-10 independently predict RVR. The combination of IL28B polymorphisms, HCV RNA level and age may yield more accurate pre-treatment prediction of SVR. HOMA-IR score is not associated with viral response.

Early stage disc degeneration does not have an appreciable affect on stiffness and load transfer following vertebroplasty and kyphoplasty.

Vertebroplasty and kyphoplasty have been reported to alter the mechanical behavior of the treated and adjacent-level segments, and have been suggested to increase the risk for adjacent-level fractures. The intervertebral disc (IVD) plays an important role in the mechanical behavior of vertebral motion segments. Comparisons between normal and degenerative IVD motion segments following cement augmentation have yet to be reported. A microstructural finite element model of a degenerative IVD motion segment was constructed from micro-CT images. Microdamage within the vertebral body trabecular structure was used to simulate a slightly (I = 83.5% of intact stiffness), moderately (II = 57.8% of intact stiffness), and severely (III = 16.0% of intact stiffness) damaged motion segment. Six variable geometry single-segment cement repair strategies (models A-F) were studied at each damage level (I-III). IVD and bone stresses, and motion segment stiffness, were compared with the intact and baseline damage models (untreated), as well as, previous findings using normal IVD models with the same repair strategies. Overall, small differences were observed in motion segment stiffness and average stresses between the degenerative and normal disc repair models. We did however observe a reduction in endplate bulge and a redistribution in the microstructural tissue level stresses across both endplates and in the treated segment following early stage IVD degeneration. The cement augmentation strategy placing bone cement along the periphery of the vertebra (model E) proved to be the most advantageous in treating the degenerative IVD models by showing larger reductions in the average bone stresses (vertebral and endplate) as compared to the normal IVD models. Furthermore, only this repair strategy, and the complete cement fill strategy (model F), were able to restore the slightly damaged (I) motion segment stiffness above pre-damaged (intact) levels. Early stage IVD degeneration does not have an appreciable effect in motion segment stiffness and average stresses in the treated and adjacent-level segments following vertebroplasty and kyphoplasty. Placing bone cement in the periphery of the damaged vertebra in a degenerative IVD motion segment, minimizes load transfer, and may reduce the likelihood of adjacent-level fractures.

When genetic load does not correlate with phenotypic spectrum: lessons from the GnRH receptor (GNRHR).

CONTEXT: A broad spectrum of GnRH-deficient phenotypes has been identified in individuals with both mono- and biallelic GNRHR mutations. OBJECTIVE: The objective of the study was to determine the correlation between the severity of the reproductive phenotype(s) and the number and functional severity of rare sequence variants in GNRHR. SUBJECTS: Eight hundred sixty-three probands with different forms of GnRH deficiency, 46 family members and 422 controls were screened for GNRHR mutations. The 70 subjects (32 patients and 38 family members) harboring mutations were divided into four groups (G1-G4) based on the functional severity of the mutations (complete or partial loss of function) and the number of affected alleles (monoallelic or biallelic) with mutations, and these classes were mapped on their clinical phenotypes. RESULTS: The prevalence of heterozygous rare sequence variants in GNRHR was significantly higher in probands vs. controls (P < 0.01). Among the G1-G3 groups (homozygous subjects with successively decreasing severity and number of mutations), the hypogonadotropic phenotype related to their genetic load. In contrast, subjects in G4, with only monoallelic mutations, demonstrated a greater diversity of clinical phenotypes. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with GnRH deficiency and biallelic mutations in GNRHR, genetic burden defined by severity and dose is associated with clinical phenotype. In contrast, for patients with monoallelic GNRHR mutations this correlation does not hold. Taken together, these data indicate that as-yet-unidentified genetic and/or environmental factors may combine with singly mutated GNRHR alleles to produce reproductive phenotypes.

Learning-induced plasticity in auditory spatial representations revealed by electrical neuroimaging.

Auditory spatial representations are likely encoded at a population level within human auditory cortices. We investigated learning-induced plasticity of spatial discrimination in healthy subjects using auditory-evoked potentials (AEPs) and electrical neuroimaging analyses. Stimuli were 100 ms white-noise bursts lateralized with varying interaural time differences. In three experiments, plasticity was induced with 40 min of discrimination training. During training, accuracy significantly improved from near-chance levels to approximately 75%. Before and after training, AEPs were recorded to stimuli presented passively with a more medial sound lateralization outnumbering a more lateral one (7:1). In experiment 1, the same lateralizations were used for training and AEP sessions. Significant AEP modulations to the different lateralizations were evident only after training, indicative of a learning-induced mismatch negativity (MMN). More precisely, this MMN at 195-250 ms after stimulus onset followed from differences in the AEP topography to each stimulus position, indicative of changes in the underlying brain network. In experiment 2, mirror-symmetric locations were used for training and AEP sessions; no training-related AEP modulations or MMN were observed. In experiment 3, the discrimination of trained plus equidistant untrained separations was tested psychophysically before and 0, 6, 24, and 48 h after training. Learning-induced plasticity lasted <6 h, did not generalize to untrained lateralizations, and was not the simple result of strengthening the representation of the trained lateralizations. Thus, learning-induced plasticity of auditory spatial discrimination relies on spatial comparisons, rather than a spatial anchor or a general comparator. Furthermore, cortical auditory representations of space are dynamic and subject to rapid reorganization.

Different PTH response to oral peptone load and oral calcium load in patients with normocalcemic primary hyperparathyroidism, primary hyperparathyroidism, and healthy subjects.

BACKGROUND: Normocalcemic primary hyperparathyroidism (PHPT-N) is a condition that may have similar long-term implications to primary hyperparathyroidism (PHPT); however, differential diagnosis and treatment for parathyroid disorders are not clearly defined. We investigated the effect of an oral peptone and an oral calcium load on calcium-regulating hormones in PHPT-N compared with PHPT and healthy controls to provide a new potential diagnostic tool. DESIGN: Case-control study. METHODS: We evaluated serum gastrin, PTH, ionized calcium, and phosphate responses to oral calcium (1 g) and peptone (10 g) load in 22 PHPT and 20 PHPT-N patients matched for PTH serum values. Moreover, 30 healthy subjects were enrolled as controls. In 12 patients for each group, we also performed the oral peptone test adding aluminum hydroxide (AH) to suppress phosphate absorption. RESULTS: In PHPT patients, PTH increased significantly 30 min after the oral peptone load, while no significant increase was found in PHPT-N and controls. After oral calcium load, PTH remained stable in PHPT while it decreased dramatically in PHPT-N patients, and ionized calcium increased significantly in each of the three groups. Peptones plus AH induced a blunted PTH increase in the three groups. CONCLUSIONS: Considering the marked difference in PTH response elicited by peptones in PHPT compared with PHPT-N, we suggest that the oral peptone test could be added to the diagnostic evaluation of PHPT patients. In case of absent response to peptones, patients should have their serum calcium levels assessed twice a year in accordance with recent guidelines.

Joint evolution of dispersal and inbreeding load.

Inbreeding avoidance is often invoked to explain observed patterns of dispersal, and theoretical models indeed point to a possibly important role. However, while inbreeding load is usually assumed constant in these models, it is actually bound to vary dynamically under the combined influences of mutation, drift, and selection and thus to evolve jointly with dispersal. Here we report the results of individual-based stochastic simulations allowing such a joint evolution. We show that strongly deleterious mutations should play no significant role, owing to the low genomic mutation rate for such mutations. Mildly deleterious mutations, by contrast, may create enough heterosis to affect the evolution of dispersal as an inbreeding-avoidance mechanism, but only provided that they are also strongly recessive. If slightly recessive, they will spread among demes and accumulate at the metapopulation level, thus contributing to mutational load, but not to heterosis. The resulting loss of viability may then combine with demographic stochasticity to promote population fluctuations, which foster indirect incentives for dispersal. Our simulations suggest that, under biologically realistic parameter values, deleterious mutations have a limited impact on the evolution of dispersal, which on average exceeds by only one-third the values expected from kin-competition avoidance.

Effects of common origin and common rearing environment on variance in ectoparasite load and phenotype of nestling Alpine swifts

Knowledge of the quantitative genetics of resistance to parasitism is key to appraise host evolutionary responses to parasite selection. Here, we studied effects of common origin (i.e. genetic and pre-hatching parental effects) and common rearing environment (i.e. post-hatching parental effects and other environment effects) on variance in ectoparasite load in nestling Alpine swifts (Apus melba). This colonial bird is intensely parasitized by blood sucking louse-flies that impair nestling development and survival. By cross-fostering half of the hatchlings between pairs of nests, we show strong significant effect of common rearing environment on variance (90.7% in 2002 and 90.9% in 2003) in the number of louse-flies per nestling and no significant effect of common origin on variance in the number of louse-flies per nestling. In contrast, significant effects of common origin were found for all the nestling morphological traits (i.e. body mass, wing length, tail length, fork length and sternum length) under investigation. Hence, our study suggests that genetic and pre-hatching parental effects play little role in the distribution of parasites among nestling Alpine swifts, and thus that nestlings have only limited scope for evolutionary responses against parasites. Our results highlight the need to take into consideration environmental factors, including the evolution of post-hatching parental effects such as nest sanitation, in our understanding of host-parasite relationships.

Electrical colonic stimulation reduces mean transit time in a porcine model.

Abstract Electrical stimulation is a new way to treat digestive disorders such as constipation. Colonic propulsive activity can be triggered by battery operated devices. This study aimed to demonstrate the effect of direct electrical colonic stimulation on mean transit time in a chronic porcine model. The impact of stimulation and implanted material on the colonic wall was also assessed. Three pairs of electrodes were implanted into the caecal wall of 12 anaesthetized pigs. Reference colonic transit time was determined by radiopaque markers for each pig before implantation. It was repeated 4 weeks after implantation with sham stimulation and 5 weeks after implantation with electrical stimulation. Aboral sequential trains of 1-ms pulse width (10 V; 120 Hz) were applied twice daily for 6 days, using an external battery operated stimulator. For each course of markers, a mean value was computed from transit times obtained from individual pig. Microscopic examination of the caecum was routinely performed after animal sacrifice. A reduction of mean transit time was observed after electrical stimulation (19 +/- 13 h; mean +/- SD) when compared to reference (34 +/- 7 h; P = 0.045) and mean transit time after sham stimulation (36 +/- 9 h; P = 0.035). Histological examination revealed minimal chronic inflammation around the electrodes. Colonic transit time measured in a chronic porcine model is reduced by direct sequential electrical stimulation. Minimal tissue lesion is elicited by stimulation or implanted material. Electrical colonic stimulation could be a promising approach to treat specific disorders of the large bowel.

Bystander-Activated Memory CD8 T Cells Control Early Pathogen Load in an Innate-like, NKG2D-Dependent Manner.

During an infection the antigen-nonspecific memory CD8 T cell compartment is not simply an inert pool of cells, but becomes activated and cytotoxic. It is unknown how these cells contribute to the clearance of an infection. We measured the strength of T cell receptor (TCR) signals that bystander-activated, cytotoxic CD8 T cells (BA-CTLs) receive in vivo and found evidence of limited TCR signaling. Given this marginal contribution of the TCR, we asked how BA-CTLs identify infected target cells. We show that target cells express NKG2D ligands following bacterial infection and demonstrate that BA-CTLs directly eliminate these target cells in an innate-like, NKG2D-dependent manner. Selective inhibition of BA-CTL-mediated killing led to a significant defect in pathogen clearance. Together, these data suggest an innate role for memory CD8 T cells in the early immune response before the onset of a de novo generated, antigen-specific CD8 T cell response.

Bio-electrical impedance analysis for estimation of fat-free mass and muscle mass in cystic fibrosis patients.

The nutritional status of cystic fibrosis (CF) patients has to be regularly evaluated and alimentary support instituted when indicated. Bio-electrical impedance analysis (BIA) is a recent method for determining body composition. The present study evaluates its use in CF patients without any clinical sign of malnutrition. Thirty-nine patients with CF and 39 healthy subjects aged 6-24 years were studied. Body density and mid-arm muscle circumference were determined by anthropometry and skinfold measurements. Fat-free mass was calculated taking into account the body density. Muscle mass was obtained from the urinary creatinine excretion rate. The resistance index was calculated by dividing the square of the subject's height by the body impedance. We show that fat-free mass, mid-arm muscle circumference and muscle mass are each linearly correlated to the resistance index and that the regression equations are similar for both CF patients and healthy subjects.

Brain energy consumption induced by electrical stimulation promotes systemic glucose uptake.

BACKGROUND: Controlled transcranial stimulation of the brain is part of clinical treatment strategies in neuropsychiatric diseases such as depression, stroke, or Parkinson's disease. Manipulating brain activity by transcranial stimulation, however, inevitably influences other control centers of various neuronal and neurohormonal feedback loops and therefore may concomitantly affect systemic metabolic regulation. Because hypothalamic adenosine triphosphate-sensitive potassium channels, which function as local energy sensors, are centrally involved in the regulation of glucose homeostasis, we tested whether transcranial direct current stimulation (tDCS) causes an excitation-induced transient neuronal energy depletion and thus influences systemic glucose homeostasis and related neuroendocrine mediators.METHODS: In a crossover design testing 15 healthy male volunteers, we increased neuronal excitation by anodal tDCS versus sham and examined cerebral energy consumption with (31)phosphorus magnetic resonance spectroscopy. Systemic glucose uptake was determined by euglycemic-hyperinsulinemic glucose clamp, and neurohormonal measurements comprised the parameters of the stress systems.RESULTS: We found that anodic tDCS-induced neuronal excitation causes an energetic depletion, as quantified by (31)phosphorus magnetic resonance spectroscopy. Moreover, tDCS-induced cerebral energy consumption promotes systemic glucose tolerance in a standardized euglycemic-hyperinsulinemic glucose clamp procedure and reduces neurohormonal stress axes activity.CONCLUSIONS: Our data demonstrate that transcranial brain stimulation not only evokes alterations in local neuronal processes but also clearly influences downstream metabolic systems regulated by the brain. The beneficial effects of tDCS on metabolic features may thus qualify brain stimulation as a promising nonpharmacologic therapy option for drug-induced or comorbid metabolic disturbances in various neuropsychiatric diseases.