Analysis, modelling and visualisation of spatiotemporal data for urban studies

The proportion of population living in or around cites is more important than ever. Urban sprawl and car dependence have taken over the pedestrian-friendly compact city. Environmental problems like air pollution, land waste or noise, and health problems are the result of this still continuing process. The urban planners have to find solutions to these complex problems, and at the same time insure the economic performance of the city and its surroundings. At the same time, an increasing quantity of socio-economic and environmental data is acquired. In order to get a better understanding of the processes and phenomena taking place in the complex urban environment, these data should be analysed. Numerous methods for modelling and simulating such a system exist and are still under development and can be exploited by the urban geographers for improving our understanding of the urban metabolism. Modern and innovative visualisation techniques help in communicating the results of such models and simulations. This thesis covers several methods for analysis, modelling, simulation and visualisation of problems related to urban geography. The analysis of high dimensional socio-economic data using artificial neural network techniques, especially self-organising maps, is showed using two examples at different scales. The problem of spatiotemporal modelling and data representation is treated and some possible solutions are shown. The simulation of urban dynamics and more specifically the traffic due to commuting to work is illustrated using multi-agent micro-simulation techniques. A section on visualisation methods presents cartograms for transforming the geographic space into a feature space, and the distance circle map, a centre-based map representation particularly useful for urban agglomerations. Some issues on the importance of scale in urban analysis and clustering of urban phenomena are exposed. A new approach on how to define urban areas at different scales is developed, and the link with percolation theory established. Fractal statistics, especially the lacunarity measure, and scale laws are used for characterising urban clusters. In a last section, the population evolution is modelled using a model close to the well-established gravity model. The work covers quite a wide range of methods useful in urban geography. Methods should still be developed further and at the same time find their way into the daily work and decision process of urban planners. La part de personnes vivant dans une région urbaine est plus élevé que jamais et continue à croître. L'étalement urbain et la dépendance automobile ont supplanté la ville compacte adaptée aux piétons. La pollution de l'air, le gaspillage du sol, le bruit, et des problèmes de santé pour les habitants en sont la conséquence. Les urbanistes doivent trouver, ensemble avec toute la société, des solutions à ces problèmes complexes. En même temps, il faut assurer la performance économique de la ville et de sa région. Actuellement, une quantité grandissante de données socio-économiques et environnementales est récoltée. Pour mieux comprendre les processus et phénomènes du système complexe "ville", ces données doivent être traitées et analysées. Des nombreuses méthodes pour modéliser et simuler un tel système existent et sont continuellement en développement. Elles peuvent être exploitées par le géographe urbain pour améliorer sa connaissance du métabolisme urbain. Des techniques modernes et innovatrices de visualisation aident dans la communication des résultats de tels modèles et simulations. Cette thèse décrit plusieurs méthodes permettant d'analyser, de modéliser, de simuler et de visualiser des phénomènes urbains. L'analyse de données socio-économiques à très haute dimension à l'aide de réseaux de neurones artificiels, notamment des cartes auto-organisatrices, est montré à travers deux exemples aux échelles différentes. Le problème de modélisation spatio-temporelle et de représentation des données est discuté et quelques ébauches de solutions esquissées. La simulation de la dynamique urbaine, et plus spécifiquement du trafic automobile engendré par les pendulaires est illustrée à l'aide d'une simulation multi-agents. Une section sur les méthodes de visualisation montre des cartes en anamorphoses permettant de transformer l'espace géographique en espace fonctionnel. Un autre type de carte, les cartes circulaires, est présenté. Ce type de carte est particulièrement utile pour les agglomérations urbaines. Quelques questions liées à l'importance de l'échelle dans l'analyse urbaine sont également discutées. Une nouvelle approche pour définir des clusters urbains à des échelles différentes est développée, et le lien avec la théorie de la percolation est établi. Des statistiques fractales, notamment la lacunarité, sont utilisées pour caractériser ces clusters urbains. L'évolution de la population est modélisée à l'aide d'un modèle proche du modèle gravitaire bien connu. Le travail couvre une large panoplie de méthodes utiles en géographie urbaine. Toutefois, il est toujours nécessaire de développer plus loin ces méthodes et en même temps, elles doivent trouver leur chemin dans la vie quotidienne des urbanistes et planificateurs.

Sexual selection in genetic colour-polymorphic species: a review of experimental studies and perspectives

Sexual selection theory has primarily focussed on the role of mating preferences for the best individuals in the evolution of condition-dependent ornaments, traits that signal absolute quality. Because the most suitable mate for one individual is not always the best for others, however, we argue that non-directional mate choice can promote the evolution of alternative morphs that are not condition-dependent in their expression (i.e. genetic polymorphism). We list the different mate-choice rules (i.e. all individuals have the same preference; preference depends on the chooser's morph; individuals mate preferentially with conspecifics displaying an uncommon or the most frequent morph) and review experimental studies that investigated mate choice in natural populations of colour-polymorphic animals. Our review emphasises that although the experimental data support the idea that sexual selection plays an important role in the evolution of genetic colour polymorphism in many different ways, little is known about the adaptive value of each mate-choice strategy and about their implication in the evolutionary stability of colour polymorphism. One way of solving this problem is to determine the adaptive function of colour morphs, a worthwhile objective, because better understanding of mate-choice rules in polymorphic species should provide important insights into sexual-selection processes and, in turn, into the maintenance of genetic variation.

Les méthodes d'études de cas en psychothérapie: perspectives actuelles [Methods of psychotherapy case studies: current perspectives].

There is a renewal of interest among psychotherapy researchers and psychotherapists towards psychotherapy case studies. This article presents two paradigms that have greatly influenced this increasing interest in psychotherapy case studies : the pragmatic case study and the theory-building case study paradigm. The origins, developments and key-concepts of both paradigms are presented, as well as their methodological and ethical specificities. Examples of case studies, along with models developed, are cited. The differential influence of the post-modern schools on both paradigms are presented, as well as their contribution to the field of methods of psychotherapy case studies discussed and assessed in terms of relevance for the researcher and the psychotherapist.

Gender differences in whole body fat oxidation kinetics during exercise

Introduction Discrepancies appear in studies comparing fat oxidation between men and women during exercise (1). Therefore, this study aimed to quantitatively describe and compare whole body fat oxidation kinetics between genders during exercise using a sinusoidal model (SIN) (2). Methods Twelve men and 11 women matched for age, body mass index (23.4±0.6 kg.m-2 and 21.5±0.8 kg.m-2, respectively) and aerobic fitness [maximal oxygen uptake ( ) (58.5±1.6 mL.kg FFM-1.min-1 and 55.3±2.0 mL.kg FFM-1.min-1, respectively) and power output ( ) per kilogram of fat-free mass (FFM)] performed submaximal incremental tests (Incr) with 5-min stages and 7.5% increment on a cycle ergometer. Respiratory and HR values were averaged over the last 2 minutes of each stage. All female study participants were eumenorrheic, reported regular menstrual cycles (28.6 ± 0.8 days) and were not taking oral contraceptives (OC) or other forms of exogenous ovarian hormones. Women were studied in the early follicular phase (FP) of their menstrual cycle (between days 3 and 8, where day 1 is the first day of menses). Fat oxidation rates were determined using indirect calorimetry and plotted as a function of exercise intensity. The SIN model (2), which includes three independent variables (dilatation, symmetry, translation), was used to mathematically describe fat oxidation kinetics and to determine the intensity (Fatmax) eliciting the maximal fat oxidation (MFO). Results During Incr, women exhibited greater fat oxidation rates from 35 to 85% , MFO (6.6 ± 0.9 vs. 4.5 ± 0.3 mgkg FFM-1min-1) and Fatmax (58.1 ± 1.9 vs. 50.0 ± 2.7% ) (P<0.05) than men. While men and women showed similar global shapes of fat oxidation kinetics in terms of dilatation and symmetry (P>0.05), the fat oxidation curve tended to be shifted towards higher exercise intensities in women (rightward translation, P=0.08). Conclusion These results showed that women, eumenorrheic, not taking OC and tested in FP, have a greater reliance on fat oxidation than men during submaximal exercise, but they also indicate that this greater fat oxidation is shifted towards higher exercise intensities in women compared with men. References 1. Blaak E. Gender differences in fat metabolism. Curr Opin Clin Nutr Metab Care 4: 499-502, 2001. 2. Cheneviere X, Malatesta D, Peters EM, and Borrani F. A mathematical model to describe fat oxidation kinetics during graded exercise. Med Sci Sports Exerc 41: 1615-1625, 2009.

Conditional manipulation of sex ratios by ant workers: A test of kin selection theory

Variable queen mating frequencies provide a unique opportunity to study the resolution of worker-queen conflict over sex ratio in social Hymenoptera, because the conflict is maximal in colonies headed by a singly mated queen and is weak or nonexistent in colonies headed by a multiply mated queen. In the wood ant Formica exsecta, workers in colonies with a singly mated queen, but not those in colonies with a multiply mated queen, altered the sex ratio of queen-laid eggs by eliminating males to preferentially raise queens. By this conditional response to queen mating frequency, workers enhance their inclusive fitness.

Effect of age and gender on citalopram and desmethylcitalopram steady-state plasma concentrations in adults and elderly depressed patients.

The effect of aging on steady-state plasma concentrations of citalopram (CIT) and desmethylcitalopram (DCIT) was investigated in 128 depressive patients treated with 10-80 mg/day CIT. They were separated into three groups, with age up to 64 years (mean age+/-S.D.: 47+/-12 years; n=48), between 65 and 79 years (72+/-1 years; n=57), and from 80 years or older (84+/-1 years; n=23). Body mass index (BMI), renal and hepatic functions were similar in the three groups. A large interindividual variability of plasma levels of CIT (16-fold) and DCIT (12-fold) was measured for a given dose. The mean plasma levels of CIT corrected for a 20 mg daily dose were 55% higher in the very elderly (>=80 years) patients (65+/-30 ng/ml; p<0.001) and 38% higher in the elderly (65-79 years) patients (58+/-24 ng/ml; p<0.001) when compared to the adult patients (42+/-17 ng/ml). DCIT mean plasma level was 38% higher (p<0.05) in the group of very elderly patients (22+/-10 ng/ml) when compared to the adult patients (16+/-9 ng/ml). As a consequence, the mean plasma concentration of CIT+DCIT was 48% higher in the very elderly patients (86+/-36 ng/ml; p<0.001) and 33% higher in the elderly patients (77+/-28 ng/ml; p<0.001) when compared to the adult patients (58+/-21 ng/ml). Age correlated significantly with CIT (r=0.43, p<0.001), DCIT (r=0.28, p<0.01), and CIT+DCIT plasma levels (r=0.44, p<0.001), and thus accounts for 18% of the variability of CIT plasma levels, with no influence of gender. The recommended dose reduction of CIT in elderly patients seems therefore justified.

Instrumental leadership: An extension of the Full-Range Leadership Theory

From a theoretical perspective, an extension to the Full Range leadership Theory (FRLT) seems needed. In this paper, we explain why instrumental leadership--a class of leadership includes leader behaviors focusing on task and strategic aspects that are neither values nor exchange oriented--can fulfill this extension. Instrument leadership is composed of four factors: environmental monitoring, strategy formulation and implementation, path-goal facilitation and outcome monitoring; these aspects of leadership are currently not included in any of the FRLT's nine leadership scales (as measured by the MLQ--Multifactor Leadership Questionnaire). We present results from two empirical studies using very large samples from a wide array of countries (N > 3,000) to examine the factorial, discriminant and criterion-related validity of the instrumental leadership scales. We find support for a four-factor instrumental leadership model, which explains incremental variance in leader outcomes in over and above transactional and transformational leadership.

Properties of a risk measure derived from ruin theory

This paper studies a risk measure inherited from ruin theory and investigates some of its properties. Specifically, we consider a value-at-risk (VaR)-type risk measure defined as the smallest initial capital needed to ensure that the ultimate ruin probability is less than a given level. This VaR-type risk measure turns out to be equivalent to the VaR of the maximal deficit of the ruin process in infinite time. A related Tail-VaR-type risk measure is also discussed.

The evolution of unicoloniality in ant societies : recognition, dispersal and population genetic structure

Introduction Societies of ants, bees, wasps and termites dominate many terrestrial ecosystems (Wilson 1971). Their evolutionary and ecological success is based upon the regulation of internal conflicts (e.g. Ratnieks et al. 2006), control of diseases (e.g. Schmid-Hempel 1998) and individual skills and collective intelligence in resource acquisition, nest building and defence (e.g. Camazine 2001). Individuals in social species can pass on their genes not only directly trough their own offspring, but also indirectly by favouring the reproduction of relatives. The inclusive fitness theory of Hamilton (1963; 1964) provides a powerful explanation for the evolution of reproductive altruism and cooperation in groups with related individuals. The same theory also led to the realization that insect societies are subject to internal conflicts over reproduction. Relatedness of less-than-one is not sufficient to eliminate all incentive for individual selfishness. This would indeed require a relatedness of one, as found among cells of an organism (Hardin 1968; Keller 1999). The challenge for evolutionary biology is to understand how groups can prevent or reduce the selfish exploitation of resources by group members, and how societies with low relatedness are maintained. In social insects the evolutionary shift from single- to multiple queens colonies modified the relatedness structure, the dispersal, and the mode of colony founding (e.g. (Crozier & Pamilo 1996). In ants, the most common, and presumably ancestral mode of reproduction is the emission of winged males and females, which found a new colony independently after mating and dispersal flights (Hölldobler & Wilson 1990). The alternative reproductive tactic for ant queens in multiple-queen colonies (polygyne) is to seek to be re-accepted in their natal colonies, where they may remain as additional reproductives or subsequently disperse on foot with part of the colony (budding) (Bourke & Franks 1995; Crozier & Pamilo 1996; Hölldobler & Wilson 1990). Such ant colonies can contain up to several hundred reproductive queens with an even more numerous workforce (Cherix 1980; Cherix 1983). As a consequence in polygynous ants the relatedness among nestmates is very low, and workers raise brood of queens to which they are only distantly related (Crozier & Pamilo 1996; Queller & Strassmann 1998). Therefore workers could increase their inclusive fitness by preferentially caring for their closest relatives and discriminate against less related or foreign individuals (Keller 1997; Queller & Strassmann 2002; Tarpy et al. 2004). However, the bulk of the evidence suggests that social insects do not behave nepotistically, probably because of the costs entailed by decreased colony efficiency or discrimination errors (Keller 1997). Recently, the consensus that nepotistic behaviour does not occur in insect colonies was challenged by a study in the ant Formica fusca (Hannonen & Sundström 2003b) showing that the reproductive share of queens more closely related to workers increases during brood development. However, this pattern can be explained either by nepotism with workers preferentially rearing the brood of more closely related queens or intrinsic differences in the viability of eggs laid by queens. In the first chapter, we designed an experiment to disentangle nepotism and differences in brood viability. We tested if workers prefer to rear their kin when given the choice between highly related and unrelated brood in the ant F. exsecta. We also looked for differences in egg viability among queens and simulated if such differences in egg viability may mistakenly lead to the conclusion that workers behave nepotistically. The acceptance of queens in polygnous ants raises the question whether the varying degree of relatedness affects their share in reproduction. In such colonies workers should favour nestmate queens over foreign queens. Numerous studies have investigated reproductive skew and partitioning of reproduction among queens (Bourke et al. 1997; Fournier et al. 2004; Fournier & Keller 2001; Hammond et al. 2006; Hannonen & Sundström 2003a; Heinze et al. 2001; Kümmerli & Keller 2007; Langer et al. 2004; Pamilo & Seppä 1994; Ross 1988; Ross 1993; Rüppell et al. 2002), yet almost no information is available on whether differences among queens in their relatedness to other colony members affects their share in reproduction. Such data are necessary to compare the relative reproductive success of dispersing and non-dispersing individuals. Moreover, information on whether there is a difference in reproductive success between resident and dispersing queens is also important for our understanding of the genetic structure of ant colonies and the dynamics of within group conflicts. In chapter two, we created single-queen colonies and then introduced a foreign queens originating from another colony kept under similar conditions in order to estimate the rate of queen acceptance into foreign established colonies, and to quantify the reproductive share of resident and introduced queens. An increasing number of studies have investigated the discrimination ability between ant workers (e.g. Holzer et al. 2006; Pedersen et al. 2006), but few have addressed the recognition and discrimination behaviour of workers towards reproductive individuals entering colonies (Bennett 1988; Brown et al. 2003; Evans 1996; Fortelius et al. 1993; Kikuchi et al. 2007; Rosengren & Pamilo 1986; Stuart et al. 1993; Sundström 1997; Vásquez & Silverman in press). These studies are important, because accepting new queens will generally have a large impact on colony kin structure and inclusive fitness of workers (Heinze & Keller 2000). In chapter three, we examined whether resident workers reject young foreign queens that enter into their nest. We introduced mated queens into their natal nest, a foreign-female producing nest, or a foreign male-producing nest and measured their survival. In addition, we also introduced young virgin and mated queens into their natal nest to examine whether the mating status of the queens influences their survival and acceptance by workers. On top of polgyny, some ant species have evolved an extraordinary social organization called 'unicoloniality' (Hölldobler & Wilson 1977; Pedersen et al. 2006). In unicolonial ants, intercolony borders are absent and workers and queens mix among the physically separated nests, such that nests form one large supercolony. Super-colonies can become very large, so that direct cooperative interactions are impossible between individuals of distant nests. Unicoloniality is an evolutionary paradox and a potential problem for kin selection theory because the mixing of queens and workers between nests leads to extremely low relatedness among nestmates (Bourke & Franks 1995; Crozier & Pamilo 1996; Keller 1995). A better understanding of the evolution and maintenance of unicoloniality requests detailed information on the discrimination behavior, dispersal, population structure, and the scale of competition. Cryptic genetic population structure may provide important information on the relevant scale to be considered when measuring relatedness and the role of kin selection. Theoretical studies have shown that relatedness should be measured at the level of the `economic neighborhood', which is the scale at which intraspecific competition generally takes place (Griffin & West 2002; Kelly 1994; Queller 1994; Taylor 1992). In chapter four, we conducted alarge-scale study to determine whether the unicolonial ant Formica paralugubris forms populations that are organised in discrete supercolonies or whether there is a continuous gradation in the level of aggression that may correlate with genetic isolation by distance and/or spatial distance between nests. In chapter five, we investigated the fine-scale population structure in three populations of F. paralugubris. We have developed mitochondria) markers, which together with the nuclear markers allowed us to detect cryptic genetic clusters of nests, to obtain more precise information on the genetic differentiation within populations, and to separate male and female gene flow. These new data provide important information on the scale to be considered when measuring relatedness in native unicolonial populations.

Decision curve analysis revisited: overall net benefit, relationships to ROC curve analysis, and application to case-control studies.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Decision curve analysis has been introduced as a method to evaluate prediction models in terms of their clinical consequences if used for a binary classification of subjects into a group who should and into a group who should not be treated. The key concept for this type of evaluation is the "net benefit", a concept borrowed from utility theory. METHODS: We recall the foundations of decision curve analysis and discuss some new aspects. First, we stress the formal distinction between the net benefit for the treated and for the untreated and define the concept of the "overall net benefit". Next, we revisit the important distinction between the concept of accuracy, as typically assessed using the Youden index and a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis, and the concept of utility of a prediction model, as assessed using decision curve analysis. Finally, we provide an explicit implementation of decision curve analysis to be applied in the context of case-control studies. RESULTS: We show that the overall net benefit, which combines the net benefit for the treated and the untreated, is a natural alternative to the benefit achieved by a model, being invariant with respect to the coding of the outcome, and conveying a more comprehensive picture of the situation. Further, within the framework of decision curve analysis, we illustrate the important difference between the accuracy and the utility of a model, demonstrating how poor an accurate model may be in terms of its net benefit. Eventually, we expose that the application of decision curve analysis to case-control studies, where an accurate estimate of the true prevalence of a disease cannot be obtained from the data, is achieved with a few modifications to the original calculation procedure. CONCLUSIONS: We present several interrelated extensions to decision curve analysis that will both facilitate its interpretation and broaden its potential area of application.

Machine learning for spatial environmental data. Theory, applications and software

The book presents the state of the art in machine learning algorithms (artificial neural networks of different architectures, support vector machines, etc.) as applied to the classification and mapping of spatially distributed environmental data. Basic geostatistical algorithms are presented as well. New trends in machine learning and their application to spatial data are given, and real case studies based on environmental and pollution data are carried out. The book provides a CD-ROM with the Machine Learning Office software, including sample sets of data, that will allow both students and researchers to put the concepts rapidly to practice.

The effect of obesity, age, puberty and gender on resting metabolic rate in children and adolescents.

During puberty fat-free mass (FFM) and fat mass (FM) change quickly and these changes are influenced by sex and obesity. Since it is not completely known how these changes affect resting metabolic rate (RMR), the aim of the present study was to investigate the effect of body composition, age, sex and pubertal development of postabsorptive RMR in 9.5- to 16.5- year-old obese and non-obese children. Postabsorptive RMR was measured in a sample of 371 pre- and postpubertal children comprising 193 males (116 non-obese and 77 obese) and 178 females (119 non-obese and 59 obese). RMR was assessed by indirect calorimetry using a ventilated hood system for 45 min after an overnight fast. Body composition (FFM and FM) was estimated from skinfold measurements. The mean (+/- SD) RMR was significantly (P < 0.001) lower in non-obese (males: 5600 +/- 972 kJ/24 h; females: 5112 +/- 632 kJ/24 h) than in obese (males: 7223 +/- 1220 kJ/24 h; females: 6665 +/- 1106 kJ/24 h) children. This difference became non-significant when RMR was adjusted for body composition (FFM+FM). However, the difference between the genders still remained significant (control male: 6118 +/- 507, control female: 5652 +/- 507, P < 0.001; obese male: 6256 +/- 507, obese female: 5818 +/- 507 kJ/24 h, P < 0.001). The main determinant of RMR was FFM. In the whole cohort. FFM explained 79.8% of the variation in RMR, followed by age, gender and FM adding further 3.8%, 1.1% and 0.8% to the predictability of RMR, respectively. No significant contribution for study group (obese, non-obese), pubertal stage, or fat distribution was found in the regression for RMR. The adjusted value of RMR (for FFM and FM) slightly, but significantly (P < 0.01) decreased between the age of 10-16 years, demonstrating the important effect of age on RMR. CONCLUSIONS: The resting metabolic rate of obese and control children is not different when adjusted for body composition. The main determinant of RMR is the fat-free mass, however, age, gender and fat mass are also significant factors. Pubertal development and fat distribution do not influence RMR independently from the changes in body composition.

When several queens reign: how polygyny affects social life in ants

Astract: The aim of this thesis was to investigate how the presence of multiple queens (polygyny) affects social organization in colonies of the ant Formica exsecta. This is important because polygyny results in reduced relatedness among colony members and therefore reflects a potential paradox for altruistic cooperation being explained by inclusive fitness theory. The reason for this is that workers in polygynous colonies rear no longer only their siblings (high inclusive fitness gain) but also more distantly ox even unrelated brood (low or no inclusive fitness gain). All research projects conducted in this thesis are novel and significant contributions to the understanding of the social evolution of insect societies. We used a mixture of experimental and observational methodologies in laboratory and field colonies of F. exsecta to examine four important aspects of social life that are impacted by polygyny. First, we investigated the influence of queen number on colony sex allocation and found that the number of queens present in a colony significantly affects colony sex ratio investment. The data were consistent with the queen-replenishment hypothesis, which is based on the observation that newly mated queens are often recruited back to their parental nest. According to this theory, colonies containing many queens should only produce males due to local resource competition (i.e. related queens compete for common resources), whereas colonies hosting few queens benefit most from producing new queens to ensure colony survival. Second, we examined how reproduction is partitioned among nestmate queens. We detected a novel pattern of reproductive partitioning whereby a high proportion of queens were completely specialized in the production of only a subset of offspring classes produced within a colony, which might translate into great differences in reproductive success between queens. Third, we could demonstrate that F. exsecta workers indiscriminately reared highly related and unrelated brood although such nepotistic behaviour (preferential rearing of relatives) would be predicted by inclusive fitness theory. The absence of nepotism is probably best explained by its negative effects on overall colony efficiency. Finally, we conducted a detailed population genetic analysis, which revealed that the genetic population structure is different for queens and workers. Our data were best explained with queens forming family-based groups (multicolonial population structure), whereas workers from several nests seemed to be grouped into larger unites (unicolonial population structure) with workers moving freely between neighbouring nests. Altogether, the presented work significantly increased our understanding of the complex organization of polygynous social insect colonies and shows how an important life history trait such as queen number affects social organization at various levels. Résumé: Le but de cette thèse était d'étudier comment la présence de plusieurs reines par colonie (polygynie) influence la vie sociale chez la fourmi Formica exsecta. Ce sujet est important parce que la polygynie chez les insectes sociaux présente un passible paradoxe au niveau de la théorie du "fitness inclusive". Ce paradoxe est basé sur le fait que les ouvrières n'élèvent plus uniquement leurs frères et soeurs (gain de "fitness inclusive" maximale), mais également des individus moins ou pas du tout apparentés (gain de "fitness inclusive" réduit ou absent). Tous les projets de recherche présentés au cours de cette thèse apportent une meilleure compréhension et connaissance au niveau de l'organisation des colonies chez les insectes sociaux. Nous avons employé des méthodes d'observation et de laboratoire afin de mettre en évidence des aspects importants de la vie sociale chez les fourmis influencés par la polygynie. Quatre aspects ont été caractérisés : (1) l'influence du nombre de reines sur le sexe ratio produit par la colonie. Nous avons démontré que les colonies contenant beaucoup de reines produisaient rarement des reines tandis que les colonies contenant peu de reines souvent investissaient beaucoup de ressources dans la production des reines. Ces résultats sont en accord avec la "queen-replenishment hypothesis" qui est basé sur l'observation que les nouvelles reines sont recrutées dans la colonie où elles étaient nées. Cette hypothèse postule que la production des reines est défavorable dans les colonies contenant beaucoup de reines, parce que ces reines apparentées, rentrent en compétition pour des ressources communes. Au contraire, la production des reines est favorable dans des colonies contenant peu de reines afin d'assurer la survie de la colonie ; (2) comment les reines dans une colonie répartissent leur reproduction. Nous avons mis en évidence un nouveau pattern de cette répartition où une grande proportion de reines est complètement spécialisée dans la production d'un seul type de couvain ce qui probablement aboutit à des différences significatives entre reines dans le succès reproducteur ; (3) la capacité des ouvrières à discriminer un couvain de soeur d'un couvain non apparenté. Les résultats ont montré que les ouvrières ne font pas de discrimination entre le couvain de soeur et le couvain non apparenté ce qui n'est pas en accord avec la théorie de la "fitness inclusive". Cette absence de discrimination est probablement due à des effets négatifs comme par exemple la diminution de la production du couvain; (4) la structure génétique d'une population de F. exsecta. Nous avons mis en évidence que la structure génétique entre des groupes de reines est significativement différente de la structure génétique entre des groupes d'ouvrières. Les données suggèrent que les reines forment des groupes basés sur une structure familiale tandis que les ouvrières sont groupées dans des unités plus grandes.

Dynamic Modelling of Material Flows and Sustainable Resource Use: Case Studies in Regional Metabolism and Space Life Support Systems

Sustainable resource use is one of the most important environmental issues of our times. It is closely related to discussions on the 'peaking' of various natural resources serving as energy sources, agricultural nutrients, or metals indispensable in high-technology applications. Although the peaking theory remains controversial, it is commonly recognized that a more sustainable use of resources would alleviate negative environmental impacts related to resource use. In this thesis, sustainable resource use is analysed from a practical standpoint, through several different case studies. Four of these case studies relate to resource metabolism in the Canton of Geneva in Switzerland: the aim was to model the evolution of chosen resource stocks and flows in the coming decades. The studied resources were copper (a bulk metal), phosphorus (a vital agricultural nutrient), and wood (a renewable resource). In addition, the case of lithium (a critical metal) was analysed briefly in a qualitative manner and in an electric mobility perspective. In addition to the Geneva case studies, this thesis includes a case study on the sustainability of space life support systems. Space life support systems are systems whose aim is to provide the crew of a spacecraft with the necessary metabolic consumables over the course of a mission. Sustainability was again analysed from a resource use perspective. In this case study, the functioning of two different types of life support systems, ARES and BIORAT, were evaluated and compared; these systems represent, respectively, physico-chemical and biological life support systems. Space life support systems could in fact be used as a kind of 'laboratory of sustainability' given that they represent closed and relatively simple systems compared to complex and open terrestrial systems such as the Canton of Geneva. The chosen analysis method used in the Geneva case studies was dynamic material flow analysis: dynamic material flow models were constructed for the resources copper, phosphorus, and wood. Besides a baseline scenario, various alternative scenarios (notably involving increased recycling) were also examined. In the case of space life support systems, the methodology of material flow analysis was also employed, but as the data available on the dynamic behaviour of the systems was insufficient, only static simulations could be performed. The results of the case studies in the Canton of Geneva show the following: were resource use to follow population growth, resource consumption would be multiplied by nearly 1.2 by 2030 and by 1.5 by 2080. A complete transition to electric mobility would be expected to only slightly (+5%) increase the copper consumption per capita while the lithium demand in cars would increase 350 fold. For example, phosphorus imports could be decreased by recycling sewage sludge or human urine; however, the health and environmental impacts of these options have yet to be studied. Increasing the wood production in the Canton would not significantly decrease the dependence on wood imports as the Canton's production represents only 5% of total consumption. In the comparison of space life support systems ARES and BIORAT, BIORAT outperforms ARES in resource use but not in energy use. However, as the systems are dimensioned very differently, it remains questionable whether they can be compared outright. In conclusion, the use of dynamic material flow analysis can provide useful information for policy makers and strategic decision-making; however, uncertainty in reference data greatly influences the precision of the results. Space life support systems constitute an extreme case of resource-using systems; nevertheless, it is not clear how their example could be of immediate use to terrestrial systems.