A deterministic model to assess the impact of AIDS interventions in countries with generalized HIV epidemic. An application to Botswana

General introductionThe Human Immunodeficiency/Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome (HIV/AIDS) epidemic, despite recent encouraging announcements by the World Health Organization (WHO) is still today one of the world's major health care challenges.The present work lies in the field of health care management, in particular, we aim to evaluate the behavioural and non-behavioural interventions against HIV/AIDS in developing countries through a deterministic simulation model, both in human and economic terms. We will focus on assessing the effectiveness of the antiretroviral therapies (ART) in heterosexual populations living in lesser developed countries where the epidemic has generalized (formerly defined by the WHO as type II countries). The model is calibrated using Botswana as a case study, however our model can be adapted to other countries with similar transmission dynamics.The first part of this thesis consists of reviewing the main mathematical concepts describing the transmission of infectious agents in general but with a focus on human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) transmission. We also review deterministic models assessing HIV interventions with a focus on models aimed at African countries. This review helps us to recognize the need for a generic model and allows us to define a typical structure of such a generic deterministic model.The second part describes the main feed-back loops underlying the dynamics of HIV transmission. These loops represent the foundation of our model. This part also provides a detailed description of the model, including the various infected and non-infected population groups, the type of sexual relationships, the infection matrices, important factors impacting HIV transmission such as condom use, other sexually transmitted diseases (STD) and male circumcision. We also included in the model a dynamic life expectancy calculator which, to our knowledge, is a unique feature allowing more realistic cost-efficiency calculations. Various intervention scenarios are evaluated using the model, each of them including ART in combination with other interventions, namely: circumcision, campaigns aimed at behavioral change (Abstain, Be faithful or use Condoms also named ABC campaigns), and treatment of other STD. A cost efficiency analysis (CEA) is performed for each scenario. The CEA consists of measuring the cost per disability-adjusted life year (DALY) averted. This part also describes the model calibration and validation, including a sensitivity analysis.The third part reports the results and discusses the model limitations. In particular, we argue that the combination of ART and ABC campaigns and ART and treatment of other STDs are the most cost-efficient interventions through 2020. The main model limitations include modeling the complexity of sexual relationships, omission of international migration and ignoring variability in infectiousness according to the AIDS stage.The fourth part reviews the major contributions of the thesis and discusses model generalizability and flexibility. Finally, we conclude that by selecting the adequate interventions mix, policy makers can significantly reduce the adult prevalence in Botswana in the coming twenty years providing the country and its donors can bear the cost involved.Part I: Context and literature reviewIn this section, after a brief introduction to the general literature we focus in section two on the key mathematical concepts describing the transmission of infectious agents in general with a focus on HIV transmission. Section three provides a description of HIV policy models, with a focus on deterministic models. This leads us in section four to envision the need for a generic deterministic HIV policy model and briefly describe the structure of such a generic model applicable to countries with generalized HIV/AIDS epidemic, also defined as pattern II countries by the WHO.

A key role of TRPC channels in the regulation of electromechanical activity of the developing heart.

Aims It is well established that dysfunction of voltage-dependent ion channels results in arrhythmias and conduction disturbances in the foetal and adult heart. However, the involvement of voltage-insensitive cationic TRPC (transient receptor potential canonical) channels remains unclear. We assessed the hypothesis that TRPC channels play a crucial role in the spontaneous activity of the developing heart.Methods and results TRPC isoforms were investigated in isolated hearts obtained from 4-day-old chick embryos. Using RT-PCR, western blotting and co-immunoprecipitation, we report for the first time that TRPC1, 3, 4, 5, 6, and 7 isoforms are expressed at the mRNA and protein levels and that they can form a macromolecular complex with the alpha 1C subunit of the L-type voltage-gated calcium channel (Cav1.2) in atria and ventricle. Using ex vivo electrocardiograms, electrograms of isolated atria and ventricle and ventricular mechanograms, we found that inhibition of TRPC channels by SKF-96365 leads to negative chrono-, dromo-, and inotropic effects, prolongs the QT interval, and provokes first-and second-degree atrioventricular blocks. Pyr3, a specific antagonist of TRPC3, affected essentially atrioventricular conduction. On the other hand, specific blockade of the L-type calcium channel with nifedipine rapidly stopped ventricular contractile activity without affecting rhythmic electrical activity.Conclusions These results give new insights into the key role that TRPC channels, via interaction with the Cav1.2 channel, play in regulation of cardiac pacemaking, conduction, ventricular activity, and contractility during cardiogenesis.

The quality of primary care in a country with universal health care coverage

Cet article a été réalisé dans le but d'évaluer la qualité des soins fournie à une population âgée de 50 à 80 ans suivie dans 4 policliniques médicales universitaires de Suisse, à savoir Bâle, Zurich, Genève et Lausanne. Nous avons sélectionné 37 indicateurs de qualité qui ont été développés et préalablement évalués au Etats-Unis. Ces indicateurs ont été divisés en 2 sous-groupes distincts : les indicateurs de prévention et les indicateurs concernant les facteurs de risque cardiovasculaires.¦L'étude a inclus des patients âgés de 50 à 80 ans avec un suivi d'un minimum de 1 an par un médecin dans l'une des policliniques de Suisse. Nous avons limité notre étude à ce groupe d'âge, afin d'avoir une prévalence élevée de facteur de risque cardiovasculaire et plus d'indications à des tests de dépistages. Les dossiers médicaux des patients ont été sélectionnés selon un mode aléatoire en prenant 250 dossiers par centre.¦L'enjeu principal de cette étude était de déterminer le niveau de soins fournis en Suisse dans les policliniques médicales universitaires. Il a été également possible de mettre en évidence les secteurs de prévention pour lesquels le taux d'application est encore insuffisant. Nous avons par la même occasion comparé nos résultats à ceux obtenus aux Etats-Unis, sachant que ce pays a un système d'évaluation de la qualité des soins qui fournit chaque années des statistiques à ce sujet.¦Les résultats de notre étude montrent qu'en Suisse les adultes reçoivent 69% des mesures de prévention recommandées mais que ces taux diffèrent d'un indicateur à l'autre. Les indicateurs à propos de la tension artérielle et de la mesure du poids (les 2 95%) ont plus souvent été réalisés durant les consultations que les indicateurs concernant l'arrêt du tabagisme (72%), les cancers du sein (40%), du colon (35%) et la vaccination annuelle contre la grippe (35.2% chez les patients de >65 ans et 29.3% chez les patient de <65 ans avec une maladie chronique). 83% des patients reçoivent les mesures préventives concernant les facteurs de risque cardiovasculaire, avec >75% pour l'hypertension, le diabète et la dyslipidémie. Cependant, l'examen des pieds est effectué chez seulement 50% des patients présentant un diabète.¦De même, nous avons pu démontrer que les femmes (65.3%) et les personnes âgées de plus de 65 ans (68.0%) reçoivent moins de mesures préventives que les hommes (72.2%) et les personnes plus jeunes (70.1%).¦Ce travail de recherche a donc permis de mettre en évidence les domaines de la prévention encore insuffisamment proposés aux patients et de rendre attentif le personnel médical sur le fait qu'il existe en Suisse des groupes de personnes qui reçoivent moins de prévention que d'autres groupes. Dans le futur, l'accent devrait être d'avantage mis durant les études de médecine et lors de la formation post-graduée sur les mesures préventives pas assez exploitées en Suisse en particulier le dépistage des cancers et la vaccination annuelle contre la grippe.

Association of socioeconomic status with overall and cause specific mortality in the republic of seychelles : results from a cohort study in the african region

BACKGROUND: Low socioeconomic status (SES) is consistently associated with higher mortality in high income countries. Only few studies have assessed this association in low and middle income countries, mainly because of sparse reliable mortality data. This study explores SES differences in overall and cause-specific mortality in the Seychelles, a rapidly developing small island state in the African region. METHODS: All deaths have been medically certified over more than two decades. SES and other lifestyle-related risk factors were assessed in a total of 3246 participants from three independent population-based surveys conducted in 1989, 1994 and 2004. Vital status was ascertained using linkage with vital statistics. Occupational position was the indicator of SES used in this study and was assessed with the same questions in the three surveys. RESULTS: During a mean follow-up of 15.0 years (range 0-23 years), 523 participants died (overall mortality rate 10.8 per 1000 person-years). The main causes of death were cardiovascular disease (CVD) (219 deaths) and cancer (142 deaths). Participants in the low SES group had a higher mortality risk for overall (HR = 1.80; 95% CI: 1.24-2.62), CVD (HR = 1.95; 1.04-3.65) and non-cancer/non-CVD (HR = 2.14; 1.10-4.16) mortality compared to participants in the high SES group. Cancer mortality also tended to be patterned by SES (HR = 1.44; 0.76-2.75). Major lifestyle-related risk factors (smoking, heavy drinking, obesity, diabetes, hypertension, hypercholesterolemia) explained a small proportion of the associations between low SES and all-cause, CVD, and non-cancer/non-CVD mortality. CONCLUSIONS: In this population-based study assessing social inequalities in mortality in a country of the African region, low SES (as measured by occupational position) was strongly associated with overall, CVD and non-cancer/non-CVD mortality. Our findings support the view that the burden of non-communicable diseases may disproportionally affect people with low SES in low and middle income countries.

Correlations between motor and intellectual functions in normally developing children between 7 and 18 years.

The relationship between motor and intellectual functions was examined in 252 healthy children from 7 to 18 years using the Zurich Neuromotor Assessment and standardized intelligence tests. The magnitude of Spearman correlations between neuromotor and intellectual scores was generally weak (r = 0.15-0.37). The strongest correlations were found between performance in the pegboard task and visuomotor intelligence (r = 0.35) and between contralateral associated movements and intelligence in boys (r = 0.37). We conclude that specific connections between motor and intellectual functions may exist. However, because the magnitude of correlations is generally weak, we suggest that motor and intellectual domains in healthy children are largely independent.

Declining stroke and myocardial infarction mortality between 1989 and 2010 in a country of the African region.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: In low- and middle-income countries, the total burden of cardiovascular diseases is expected to increase due to demographic and epidemiological transitions. However, data on cause-specific mortality are lacking in sub-Saharan Africa. Seychelles is one of the few countries in the region where all deaths are registered and medically certified. In this study, we examine trends in mortality for stroke and myocardial infarction (MI) between 1989 and 2010. METHODS: Based on vital statistics, we ascertained stroke and MI as the cause of death if appearing in any of the 4 fields for immediate, intermediate, underlying, and contributory causes in death certificates. RESULTS: Mortality rates (per 100 000, age-standardized to World Health Organization standard population) decreased from 1669/710 (men/women) in 1989 to 1991 to 1113/535 in 2008-10 for all causes, from 250/140 to 141/86 for stroke, and from 117/51 to 59/24 for MI, corresponding to proportionate decreases of 33%/25% for all-cause mortality, 44%/39% for stroke, and 50%/53% for MI over 22 years. The absolute number of stroke and MI deaths did not increase over time. In 2008 to 2010, the median age of death was 65/78 years (men/women) for all causes, 68/78 for stroke, and 66/73 for MI. CONCLUSIONS: Between 1989 and 2010, age-standardized stroke and MI mortality decreased markedly and more rapidly than all-cause mortality. The absolute number of cardiovascular disease deaths did not increase over time because the impact of population aging was fully compensated by the decline in cardiovascular disease mortality. Stroke mortality remained high, emphasizing the need to strengthen cardiovascular disease prevention and control.

Two waves of recombinase gene expression in developing thymocytes.

During T cell development in the thymus, T cell receptor (TCR) alpha, beta, gamma, and delta genes are rearranged and expressed. TCR rearrangement strictly depends upon the coordinate activity of two recombinase activating genes, Rag-1 and Rag-2. In this study we have followed the expression of these genes at different stages of intrathymic development. The results indicate that there are two periods of high Rag-1 and Rag-2 mRNA expression. The first wave peaks early at the CD25+CD4-CD8-CD3- stage of development and coincides with the initial appearance of transcripts derived from fully rearranged TCR beta, gamma, and delta genes, whereas the second wave occurs later at the CD4+CD8+ stage coincident with full-length TCR alpha mRNA expression. Active downregulation of Rag-1 and Rag-2 mRNA expression appears to occur in vivo between the two peaks of recombinase activity. This phenomenon can be mimicked in vitro in response to artificial stimuli such as phorbol myristate acetate and calcium ionophore. Collectively our data suggest that recombinase expression is actively regulated during early thymus development independently of cell surface expression of a mature heterodimeric TCR protein complex.

Interchange of callosal and association projections in the developing visual cortex.

Neurons projecting transitorily into the corpus callosum from area 17 of the cat were retrogradely labeled by the fluorescent tracer Fast Blue (FB) injected into contralateral areas 17 and 18 on postnatal days 1-5. During the second postnatal month these neurons were still labeled by the early injection, although they had eliminated their callosal axon. At this time, 15-20% of these neurons could be retrogradely relabeled by injections of Diamidino Yellow (DY) into ipsilateral areas 17 and 18, but few or none by similar injections in the other areas that receive from area 17 (19, 21a, PMLS, 20a, 20b, DLS). Similarly, area 17 neurons projecting transitorily to contralateral area PMLS during the first postnatal week could be relabeled by DY injections in ipsilateral areas 17 and 18 but not in PMLS. Already around birth, many transitorily callosal neurons in area 17 send bifurcating axons both to contralateral areas 17 and 18 and ipsilateral area 18. It is probable that during postnatal development some of these neurons selectively eliminate their callosal axon collaterals and maintain the projection to ipsilateral area 18. In fact, some transitorily callosal neurons in area 17 can be double-labeled by simultaneous perinatal injections of FB in contralateral areas 17 and 18 and of a new long-lasting retrograde tracer, rhodamine-conjugated latex microspheres, in ipsilateral area 18. The same neurons can then be relabeled by reinjecting ipsilateral area 18 with DY during the second postnatal month. This finding, however, does not exclude the possibility that some transitorily callosal neurons send an axon to ipsilateral area 18 after eliminating their callosal axon. In conclusion, area 17 neurons that project transitorily through the corpus callosum later participate, probably permanently, in ipsilateral corticocortical projections but selectively to areas 17-18. The mechanism responsible for this selectivity is unknown, but it may be related to the differential radial distribution (i.e., to birth date) of area 17 neurons engaged in the various corticocortical projections. The problems raised by the use of long-lasting retrograde fluorescent tracers in neurodevelopmental studies and by the quantification of results of double- and triple-labeling paradigms are also discussed.

Mycobacterium tuberculosis transmission in a country with low tuberculosis incidence: role of immigration and HIV infection.

Immigrants from high-burden countries and HIV-coinfected individuals are risk groups for tuberculosis (TB) in countries with low TB incidence. Therefore, we studied their role in transmission of Mycobacterium tuberculosis in Switzerland. We included all TB patients from the Swiss HIV Cohort and a sample of patients from the national TB registry. We identified molecular clusters by spoligotyping and mycobacterial interspersed repetitive-unit-variable-number tandem-repeat (MIRU-VNTR) analysis and used weighted logistic regression adjusted for age and sex to identify risk factors for clustering, taking sampling proportions into account. In total, we analyzed 520 TB cases diagnosed between 2000 and 2008; 401 were foreign born, and 113 were HIV coinfected. The Euro-American M. tuberculosis lineage dominated throughout the study period (378 strains; 72.7%), with no evidence for another lineage, such as the Beijing genotype, emerging. We identified 35 molecular clusters with 90 patients, indicating recent transmission; 31 clusters involved foreign-born patients, and 15 involved HIV-infected patients. Birth origin was not associated with clustering (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 1.58; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.73 to 3.43; P = 0.25, comparing Swiss-born with foreign-born patients), but clustering was reduced in HIV-infected patients (aOR, 0.49; 95% CI, 0.26 to 0.93; P = 0.030). Cavitary disease, male sex, and younger age were all associated with molecular clustering. In conclusion, most TB patients in Switzerland were foreign born, but transmission of M. tuberculosis was not more common among immigrants and was reduced in HIV-infected patients followed up in the national HIV cohort study. Continued access to health services and clinical follow-up will be essential to control TB in this population.

Differential distribution of tau proteins in developing cat cerebral cortex and corpus callosum.

During the postnatal development of cat visual cortex and corpus callosum the molecular composition of tau proteins varied with age. In both structures, they changed between postnatal days 19 and 39 from a set of two juvenile forms to a set of at least two adult variants with higher molecular weights. During the first postnatal week, tau proteins were detectable with TAU-1 antibody in axons of corpus callosum and visual cortex, and in some perikarya and dendrites in the visual cortex. At later ages, tau proteins were located exclusively within axons in all cortical layers and in the corpus callosum. Dephosphorylation of postnatal day 11 cortical tissue by alkaline phosphatase strongly increased tau protein immunoreactivity on Western blots and in numerous perikarya and dendrites in all cortical layers, in sections, suggesting that some tau forms had been unmasked. During postnatal development the intensity of this phosphate-dependent somatodendritic staining decreased, but remained in a few neurons in cortical layers II and III. On blots, the immunoreactivity of adult tau to TAU-1 was only marginally increased by dephosphorylation. Other tau antibodies (TAU-2, B19 and BR133) recognized two juvenile and two adult cat tau proteins on blots, and localized tau in axons or perikarya and dendrites in tissue untreated with alkaline phosphatase. Tau proteins in mature tissue were soluble and not associated with detergent-resistant structures. Furthermore, dephosphorylation by alkaline phosphatase resulted in the appearance of more tau proteins in soluble fractions. Therefore tau proteins seem to alter their degree of phosphorylation during development. This could affect microtubule stability as well as influence axonal and dendritic differentiation.