Descriptive epidemiology of skin cancer in the Swiss Canton of Vaud.

Incidence registration and survival data for non-melanocytic skin neoplasms and cutaneous melanoma have been abstracted from the population-based system of the Cancer Registry of the Swiss Canton of Vaud, which has been operating in a particularly favourable environment, since the large majority of cutaneous lesions resected in the area are examined by a pathologist. Among the 5,712 cases registered, 66.7% were basal-cell carcinomas, 20.6% squamous-cell cancers, 9.3% cutaneous melanomas and 3.4% other miscellaneous histological types. The distribution by histological type did not differ appreciably in the 2 sexes, but there were marked inter-sex differences as regards anatomical site. In both sexes, head and neck was by far the commonest localization for non-melanomatous neoplasms (69 to 81% of all incident cases), followed by trunk for basal-cell cancers (18% in males, 15% in females) and upper limb for squamous-cell (10% in males, 17% in females). The distribution of skin melanomas differed considerably between the 2 sexes, by far the commonest site being the trunk for males (45% of cases) and lower limbs for females (40%), followed by head and neck (22% in both sexes). Incidence rates for both basal- and squamous-cell cancers increased with age, and rates were higher in males for each localization except the lower limb. In contrast, incidence for melanoma was higher in females, and incidence rates did not increase with age above 55 years for all sites except head and neck. This can be interpreted in terms of cohort effect, since mortality from melanoma has substantially increased in Switzerland across subsequent birth cohorts. Although this study is essentially descriptive, accurate inspection of these data provides some support for the major aetiological hypotheses of skin carcinogenesis, i.e., the observation that the large majority of basal- and squamous-cell cancers arise on the head and neck confirms the importance of long-term ultraviolet exposure; the relative excess of squamous-cell as compared to basal-cell neoplasms on the upper limb may suggest the role of exposure to other (chemical) carcinogens; and the proportional excess of melanomas on the trunk in males and lower limb in females further indicates that intermittent exposure to sunlight is probably the relevant aetiologic factor for melanocytic skin neoplasms.

The MIGCLIM R package - seamless integration of dispersal constraints into projections of species distribution models

The MIGCLIM R package is a function library for the open source R software that enables the implementation of species-specific dispersal constraints into projections of species distribution models under environmental change and/or landscape fragmentation scenarios. The model is based on a cellular automaton and the basic modeling unit is a cell that is inhabited or not. Model parameters include dispersal distance and kernel, long distance dispersal, barriers to dispersal, propagule production potential and habitat invasibility. The MIGCLIM R package has been designed to be highly flexible in the parameter values it accepts, and to offer good compatibility with existing species distribution modeling software. Possible applications include the projection of future species distributions under environmental change conditions and modeling the spread of invasive species.

Conceptual models for designing information systems supporting the strategic analysis of technology environments

1 6 STRUCTURE OF THIS THESIS -Chapter I presents the motivations of this dissertation by illustrating two gaps in the current body of knowledge that are worth filling, describes the research problem addressed by this thesis and presents the research methodology used to achieve this goal. -Chapter 2 shows a review of the existing literature showing that environment analysis is a vital strategic task, that it shall be supported by adapted information systems, and that there is thus a need for developing a conceptual model of the environment that provides a reference framework for better integrating the various existing methods and a more formal definition of the various aspect to support the development of suitable tools. -Chapter 3 proposes a conceptual model that specifies the various enviromnental aspects that are relevant for strategic decision making, how they relate to each other, and ,defines them in a more formal way that is more suited for information systems development. -Chapter 4 is dedicated to the evaluation of the proposed model on the basis of its application to a concrete environment to evaluate its suitability to describe the current conditions and potential evolution of a real environment and get an idea of its usefulness. -Chapter 5 goes a step further by assembling a toolbox describing a set of methods that can be used to analyze the various environmental aspects put forward by the model and by providing more detailed specifications for a number of them to show how our model can be used to facilitate their implementation as software tools. -Chapter 6 describes a prototype of a strategic decision support tool that allow the analysis of some of the aspects of the environment that are not well supported by existing tools and namely to analyze the relationship between multiple actors and issues. The usefulness of this prototype is evaluated on the basis of its application to a concrete environment. -Chapter 7 finally concludes this thesis by making a summary of its various contributions and by proposing further interesting research directions.

Missed appointments in an adolescent outpatient clinic : descriptive analyses of consultations over eight years ; et, Missed appointments in an outpatient clinic for adolescents, an approache to predict the risk of missing

Rapport de synthèse: Les rendez-vous manqués représentent un problème important, tant du point de vue de la santé des patients que du point de vue économique. Pourtant peu d'études se sont penchées sur le sujet, particulièrement dans une population d'adolescents. Les buts de cette étude étaient de caractériser les adolescents qui sont à risque de manquer ou d'annuler leurs rendez-vous dans une clinique ambulatoire de santé pour adolescents, de comparer les taux des rendez-vous manqués et annulés entre les différents intervenants et d'estimer l'efficacité d'une politique de taxation des rendez-vous manqués non excusés. Finalement, un modèle multi-niveau markovien a été utilisé afin de prédire le risque de manquer un rendez-vous. Ce modèle tient compte du passé de l'adolescent en matière de rendez-vous manqués et d'autres covariables et permet de grouper les individus ayant un comportement semblable. On peut ensuite prédire pour chaque groupe le risque de manquer ou annuler et les covariables influençant significativement ce risque. Entre 1999 et 2006, 32816 rendez-vous fixés pour 3577 patients âgés de 12 à 20 ans ont été analysés. Le taux de rendez-vous manqués était de 11.8%, alors que 10.9% avaient été annulés. Soixante pour cent des patients n'ont pas manqué un seul de leur rendezvous et 14% en ont manqué plus de 25%. Nous avons pu mettre en évidence plusieurs variables associées de manière statistiquement significative avec les taux de rendez-vous manqués et d'annulations (genre, âge, heure, jour de la semaine, intervenant thérapeutique). Le comportement des filles peut être catégorisé en 2 groupes. Le premier groupe inclut les diagnostiques psychiatriques et de trouble du comportement alimentaire, le risque de manquer dans ce groupe étant faible et associé au fait d'avoir précédemment manqué un rendez-vous et au délai du rendez-vous. Les autres diagnostiques chez les filles sont associés à un second groupe qui montre un risque plus élevé de manquer un rendez-vous et qui est associé à l'intervenant, au fait d'avoir précédemment manqué ou annulé le dernier rendez-vous et au délai du rendez-vous. Les garçons ont tous globalement un comportement similaire concernant les rendez-vous manqués. Le diagnostic au sein de ce groupe influence le risque de manquer, tout comme le fait d'avoir précédemment manqué ou annulé un rendez-vous, le délai du rendez-vous et l'âge du patient. L'introduction de la politique de taxation des rendez-vous non excusés n'a pas montré de différence significative des tàux de rendez-vous manqués, cependant cette mesure a permis une augmentation du taux d'annulations. En conclusion, les taux de présence des adolescents à leurs rendez-vous sont dépendants de facteurs divers. Et, même si les adolescents sont une population à risque concernant les rendez-vous manqués, la majorité d'entre eux ne manquent aucun de leurs rendez-vous, ceci étant vrai pour les deux sexes. Etudier les rendez-vous manqués et les adolescents qui sont à risque de rater leur rendez-vous est un pas nécessaire vers le contrôle de ce phénomène. Par ailleurs, les moyens de contrôle concernant les rendez-vous manqués devraient cibler les patients ayant déjà manqué un rendez-vous. La taxation des rendez-vous manqués permet d'augmenter les rendez-vous annulés, ce qui a l'avantage de permettre de fixer un nouveau rendez-vous et, de ce fait, d'améliorer la continuité des soins.

Missed appointments in an adolescent outpatient clinic: descriptive analyses of consultations over 8 years.

Missed appointments represent an important medical and economical issue. Few studies on the subject are reported in the literature, particularly regarding adolescents. Our aim was to characterize missed and cancelled appointments in a multidisciplinary outpatient clinic for adolescents, to assess the effectiveness of a policy aimed at reducing missed appointments by introducing payment for those missed appointments not cancelled in advance, and to compare the rates between staff and resident physicians. A total of 32,816 consultations (representing 35 patients aged 12-20 years, 82.4% females) between 1999 and 200 were analysed. The missed appointment rate was 11.8% whilst another 10.9% were cancellations. Females cancelled more than males (11.3% vs. 8.4%, AOR 1.31, 99% CI 1.08-1.59), but there was no difference for missed appointments (11.6% vs. 12.3%, AOR 0.88, 99% CI 0.61-1.08). April and June to October (vacation months) were associated with more missed appointments. Globally mornings had higher rates of missed appointments than afternoons (13.6% vs. 11.2%, AOR 1.25, 99% CI 1.11-1.40). There was a slight difference in missed appointment rates between staff physicians and residents (10.4%; 11.8%, AOR 1.20, 99% CI 1.08-1.33). Missed appointment rates before and after the new policy on missed appointments were similar (1999-2003: 11.9%; 2004-2006: 11.6%, AOR 0.96, 99% CI 0.83-1.10). Conversely, cancellation rates increased from 8.4% (1999-2003) to 14.5% (2004-2006) (AOR 1.83, 99% CI 1.63-2.05). Attendance rates among adolescents show variations depending on vacation and school hours. Being attentive to these factors could help prevent missed appointments. Although having to pay for missed appointments does not increase attendance, it increases cancellations with the advantage that the appointment can be rescheduled.

Not in Education, Employment, or Training status among young Swiss men. Longitudinal associations with mental health and substance use.

PURPOSE: Not in Education, Employment, or Training (NEET) youth are youth disengaged from major social institutions and constitute a worrying concern. However, little is known about this subgroup of vulnerable youth. This study aimed to examine if NEET youth differ from other contemporaries in terms of personality, mental health, and substance use and to provide longitudinal examination of NEET status, testing its stability and prospective pathways with mental health and substance use. METHODS: As part of the Cohort Study on Substance Use Risk Factors, 4,758 young Swiss men in their early 20s answered questions concerning their current professional and educational status, personality, substance use, and symptomatology related to mental health. Descriptive statistics, generalized linear models for cross-sectional comparisons, and cross-lagged panel models for longitudinal associations were computed. RESULTS: NEET youth were 6.1% at baseline and 7.4% at follow-up with 1.4% being NEET at both time points. Comparisons between NEET and non-NEET youth showed significant differences in substance use and depressive symptoms only. Longitudinal associations showed that previous mental health, cannabis use, and daily smoking increased the likelihood of being NEET. Reverse causal paths were nonsignificant. CONCLUSIONS: NEET status seemed to be unlikely and transient among young Swiss men, associated with differences in mental health and substance use but not in personality. Causal paths presented NEET status as a consequence of mental health and substance use rather than a cause. Additionally, this study confirmed that cannabis use and daily smoking are public health problems. Prevention programs need to focus on these vulnerable youth to avoid them being disengaged.

Binary classification of dyslipidemia from the waist-to-hip ratio and body mass index: a comparison of linear, logistic, and CART models.

BACKGROUND: We sought to improve upon previously published statistical modeling strategies for binary classification of dyslipidemia for general population screening purposes based on the waist-to-hip circumference ratio and body mass index anthropometric measurements. METHODS: Study subjects were participants in WHO-MONICA population-based surveys conducted in two Swiss regions. Outcome variables were based on the total serum cholesterol to high density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio. The other potential predictor variables were gender, age, current cigarette smoking, and hypertension. The models investigated were: (i) linear regression; (ii) logistic classification; (iii) regression trees; (iv) classification trees (iii and iv are collectively known as "CART"). Binary classification performance of the region-specific models was externally validated by classifying the subjects from the other region. RESULTS: Waist-to-hip circumference ratio and body mass index remained modest predictors of dyslipidemia. Correct classification rates for all models were 60-80%, with marked gender differences. Gender-specific models provided only small gains in classification. The external validations provided assurance about the stability of the models. CONCLUSIONS: There were no striking differences between either the algebraic (i, ii) vs. non-algebraic (iii, iv), or the regression (i, iii) vs. classification (ii, iv) modeling approaches. Anticipated advantages of the CART vs. simple additive linear and logistic models were less than expected in this particular application with a relatively small set of predictor variables. CART models may be more useful when considering main effects and interactions between larger sets of predictor variables.

Increased efflux of amyloid-β peptides through the blood-brain barrier by muscarinic acetylcholine receptor inhibition reduces pathological phenotypes in mouse models of brain amyloidosis.

The formation and accumulation of toxic amyloid-β peptides (Aβ) in the brain may drive the pathogenesis of Alzheimer's disease. Accordingly, disease-modifying therapies for Alzheimer's disease and related disorders could result from treatments regulating Aβ homeostasis. Examples are the inhibition of production, misfolding, and accumulation of Aβ or the enhancement of its clearance. Here we show that oral treatment with ACI-91 (Pirenzepine) dose-dependently reduced brain Aβ burden in AβPPPS1, hAβPPSL, and AβPP/PS1 transgenic mice. A possible mechanism of action of ACI-91 may occur through selective inhibition of muscarinic acetylcholine receptors (AChR) on endothelial cells of brain microvessels and enhanced Aβ peptide clearance across the blood-brain barrier. One month treatment with ACI-91 increased the clearance of intrathecally-injected Aβ in plaque-bearing mice. ACI-91 also accelerated the clearance of brain-injected Aβ in blood and peripheral tissues by favoring its urinal excretion. A single oral dose of ACI-91 reduced the half-life of interstitial Aβ peptide in pre-plaque mhAβPP/PS1d mice. By extending our studies to an in vitro model, we showed that muscarinic AChR inhibition by ACI-91 and Darifenacin augmented the capacity of differentiated endothelial monolayers for active transport of Aβ peptide. Finally, ACI-91 was found to consistently affect, in vitro and in vivo, the expression of endothelial cell genes involved in Aβ transport across the Blood Brain Brain (BBB). Thus increased Aβ clearance through the BBB may contribute to reduced Aβ burden and associated phenotypes. Inhibition of muscarinic AChR restricted to the periphery may present a therapeutic advantage as it avoids adverse central cholinergic effects.

Exposure models in Switzerland: an overview of the present situation

A survey was undertaken among Swiss occupational health and safety specialists in 2004 to identify uses, difficulties, and possible developments of exposure models. Occupational hygienists (121), occupational physicians (169), and safety specialists (95) were surveyed with an in depth questionnaire. Results obtained indicate that models are not used very much in practice in Switzerland and are reserved to research groups focusing on specific topics. However, various determinants of exposure are often considered important by professionals (emission rate, work activity), and in some cases recorded and used (room parameters, operator activity). These parameters cannot be directly included in present models. Nevertheless, more than half of the occupational hygienists think that it is important to develop quantitative exposure models. Looking at research institutions, there is, however, a big interest in the use of models to solve problems which are difficult to address with direct measurements; i. e. retrospective exposure assessment for specific clinical cases and prospective evaluation for new situations or estimation of the effect of selected parameters. In a recent study about cases of acutepulmonary toxicity following water proofing spray exposure, exposure models have been used to reconstruct exposure of a group of patients. Finally, in the context of exposure prediction, it is also important to report about a measurement database existing in Switzerland since 1991. [Authors]

Embolic strokes of undetermined source in the athens stroke registry: a descriptive analysis.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: A new clinical construct termed embolic stroke of undetermined source (ESUS) was recently introduced, but no such population has been described yet. Our aim is to provide a detailed descriptive analysis of an ESUS population derived from a large prospective ischemic stroke registry using the proposed diagnostic criteria. METHODS: The criteria proposed by the Cryptogenic Stroke/ESUS International Working Group were applied to the Athens Stroke Registry to identify all ESUS patients. ESUS was defined as a radiologically confirmed nonlacunar brain infarct in the absence of (a) extracranial or intracranial atherosclerosis causing ≥50% luminal stenosis in arteries supplying the ischemic area, (b) major-risk cardioembolic source, and (c) any other specific cause of stroke. RESULTS: Among 2735 patients admitted between 1992 and 2011, 275 (10.0%) were classified as ESUS. In the majority of ESUS (74.2%), symptoms were maximal at onset. ESUS were of moderate severity (median National Institute Health Stroke Scale score, 5). The most prevalent risk factor was arterial hypertension (64.7%), and 50.9% of patients were dyslipidemic. Among potential causes of the ESUS, covert atrial fibrillation (AF) was the most prevalent: in 30 (10.9%) patients, AF was diagnosed during hospitalization for stroke recurrence, whereas in 50 (18.2%) patients AF was detected after repeated ECG monitoring during follow-up. Also, covert AF was strongly suggested in 38 patients (13.8%) but never recorded. CONCLUSIONS: About 10% of patients with first-ever ischemic stroke met criteria for ESUS; covert paroxysmal AF seems to be a frequent cause of ESUS.

Symmetry-breaking in cumulative measures of shapes of polymer models.

Using numerical simulations we investigate shapes of random equilateral open and closed chains, one of the simplest models of freely fluctuating polymers in a solution. We are interested in the 3D density distribution of the modeled polymers where the polymers have been aligned with respect to their three principal axes of inertia. This type of approach was pioneered by Theodorou and Suter in 1985. While individual configurations of the modeled polymers are almost always nonsymmetric, the approach of Theodorou and Suter results in cumulative shapes that are highly symmetric. By taking advantage of asymmetries within the individual configurations, we modify the procedure of aligning independent configurations in a way that shows their asymmetry. This approach reveals, for example, that the 3D density distribution for linear polymers has a bean shape predicted theoretically by Kuhn. The symmetry-breaking approach reveals complementary information to the traditional, symmetrical, 3D density distributions originally introduced by Theodorou and Suter.