123 resultados para Continuous Markov processes


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The incidence of neurodegenerative disease like Parkinson's disease and Alzheimer's disease (AD) increases dramatically with age; only a small percentage is directly related to familial forms. The etiology of the most abundant, sporadic forms is complex and multifactorial, involving both genetic and environmental factors. Several environmental pollutants have been associated with neurodegenerative disorders. The present article focuses on results obtained in experimental neurotoxicology studies that indicate a potential pathogenic role of lead and mercury in the development of neurodegenerative diseases. Both heavy metals have been shown to interfere with a multitude of intracellular targets, thereby contributing to several pathogenic processes typical of neurodegenerative disorders, including mitochondrial dysfunction, oxidative stress, deregulation of protein turnover, and brain inflammation. Exposure to heavy metals early in development can precondition the brain for developing a neurodegenerative disease later in life. Alternatively, heavy metals can exert their adverse effects through acute neurotoxicity or through slow accumulation during prolonged periods of life. The pro-oxidant effects of heavy metals can exacerbate the age-related increase in oxidative stress that is related to the decline of the antioxidant defense systems. Brain inflammatory reactions also generate oxidative stress. Chronic inflammation can contribute to the formation of the senile plaques that are typical for AD. In accord with this view, nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs and antioxidants suppress early pathogenic processes leading to Alzheimer's disease, thus decreasing the risk of developing the disease. The effects of lead and mercury were also tested in aggregating brain-cell cultures of fetal rat telencephalon, a three-dimensional brain-cell culture system. The continuous application for 10 to 50 days of non-cytotoxic concentrations of heavy metals resulted in their accumulation in brain cells and the occurrence of delayed toxic effects. When applied at non-toxic concentrations, methylmercury, the most common environmental form of mercury, becomes neurotoxic under pro-oxidant conditions. Furthermore, lead and mercury induce glial cell reactivity, a hallmark of brain inflammation. Both mercury and lead increase the expression of the amyloid precursor protein; mercury also stimulates the formation of insoluble beta-amyloid, which plays a crucial role in the pathogenesis of AD and causes oxidative stress and neurotoxicity in vitro. Taken together, a considerable body of evidence suggests that the heavy metals lead and mercury contribute to the etiology of neurodegenerative diseases and emphasizes the importance of taking preventive measures in this regard.

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Numerous recent reports by non-governmental organisations (NGOs), academics and international organisations have focused on so-called 'climate refugees'. This article examines the turn from a discourse of 'climate refugees', in which organisations perceive migration as a failure of both mitigation and adaptation to climate change, to one of 'climate migration', in which organisations promote migration as a strategy of adaptation. Its focus is the promotion of climate migration management, and it explores the trend of these discourses through two sections. First, it provides an empirical account of the two discourses, emphasising the differentiation between them. It then focuses on the discourse of climate migration, its origins, extent and content, and the associated practices of 'migration management'. The second part argues that the turn to the promotion of 'climate migration' should be understood as a way to manage the insecurity created by climate change. However, international organisations enacts this management within the forms of neoliberal capitalism, including the framework of governance. Therefore, the promotion of 'climate migration' as a strategy of adaptation to climate change is located within the tendencies of neoliberalism and the reconfiguration of southern states' sovereignty through governance.

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Analyzing the relationship between the baseline value and subsequent change of a continuous variable is a frequent matter of inquiry in cohort studies. These analyses are surprisingly complex, particularly if only two waves of data are available. It is unclear for non-biostatisticians where the complexity of this analysis lies and which statistical method is adequate.With the help of simulated longitudinal data of body mass index in children,we review statistical methods for the analysis of the association between the baseline value and subsequent change, assuming linear growth with time. Key issues in such analyses are mathematical coupling, measurement error, variability of change between individuals, and regression to the mean. Ideally, it is better to rely on multiple repeated measurements at different times and a linear random effects model is a standard approach if more than two waves of data are available. If only two waves of data are available, our simulations show that Blomqvist's method - which consists in adjusting for measurement error variance the estimated regression coefficient of observed change on baseline value - provides accurate estimates. The adequacy of the methods to assess the relationship between the baseline value and subsequent change depends on the number of data waves, the availability of information on measurement error, and the variability of change between individuals.

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Li contents [Li] and isotopic composition (delta Li-7) of mafic minerals (mainly amphibole and clinopyroxene) from the alkaline to peralkaline Ilimaussaq plutonic complex, South Greenland, track the behavior of Li and its isotopes during magmatic differentiation and final cooling of an alkaline igneous system. [Li] in amphibole increase from < 10 ppm in Caamphiboles of the least differentiated unit to >3000 ppm in Na-amphiboles of the highly evolved units. In contrast, [Li] in clinopyroxene are comparatively low (<85 ppm) and do not vary systematically with differentiation. The distribution of Li between amphibole and pyroxene is controlled by the major element composition of the minerals (Ca-rich and Na-rich, respectively) and changes in oxygen fugacity (due to Li incorporation via coupled substitution with ferric iron) during magmatic differentiation. delta(7) Li values of all minerals span a wide range from + 17 to - 8 parts per thousand, with the different intrusive units of the complex having distinct Li isotopic systematics. Amphiboles, which dominate the Li budget of whole-rocks from the inner part of the complex, have constant delta Li-7 of + 1.8 +/- 2.2 parts per thousand (2 sigma, n = 15). This value reflects a homogeneous melt reservoir and is consistent with their mantle derivation, in agreement with published O and Nd isotopic data. Clinopyroxenes of these samples are consistently lighter, with Delta Li-7(amph-cpx). as large as 8 parts per thousand and are thus not in Li isotope equilibrium. These low values probably reflect late-stage diffusion of Li into clinopyroxene during final cooling of the rocks, thus enriching the clinopyroxene in 6 Li. At the margin of the complex delta(7) Li in the syenites increases systematically, from +2 to high values of + 14 parts per thousand. This, coupled with the observed Li isotope systematics of the granitic country rocks, reflects post-magmatic open-system processes occurring during final cooling of the intrusion. Although the shape and magnitude of the Li isotope and elemental profiles through syenite and country rock are suggestive of diffusion-driven isotope fractionation, they cannot be modeled by one-dimensional diffusive transport and point to circulation of a fluid having a high 67 Li value (possibly seawater) along the chilled contact. In all, this study demonstrates that Li isotopes can be used to identify complex fluid- and diffusion-governed processes taking place during the final cooling of such rocks. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V All rights reserved.

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Several Permian-Triassic boundary sections occur in various structural units within Hungary. These sections represent different facies zones of the western Palaeotethys margin. The Gardony core in the NE part of the Transdanubian Range typically represents the inner ramp, while the Balvany section in the Bukk Mountains of northern Hungary represents an outer ramp setting. The two sections have different patterns for their delta(13)C values. The Balvany section shows a continuous change towards more negative delta(13)C values starting at the first biotic decline, followed by a sharp, quasi-symmetric negative peak at the second decline. The appearance of the delta(13)C peak has no relationship to the lithology and occurs within a shale with low overall carbonate content, indicating that the peak is not related to diagenesis or other secondary influences. Instead, the shift and the peak reflect primary processes related to changes in environmental conditions. The continuous shift in delta(13)C values is most probably related to a decrease in bioproductivity, whereas the sharp peak can be attributed to an addition of C strongly depleted in (13)C to the ocean-atmosphere system. The most plausible model is a massive release of methane-hydrate. The quasi-symmetric pattern suggests a rapid warming-cooling cycle or physical unroofing of sediments through slope-failure and releasing methane-hydrate. The Gidony-1 core shows a continuous negative delta(13)C shift starting below the P-T boundary. However, the detailed analyses revealed a sharp delta(13)C peak in the boundary interval, just below the major biotic decline, although its magnitude doesn't reach that observed in the Balvany section. Based on careful textural examination and high-resolution stable isotope microanalyses we suggest that the suppression of the delta(13)C peak that is common in the oolitic boundary sections is due to combined effects of condensed sedimentation, sediment reworking and erosion, as well as perhaps diagenesis. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V All rights reserved.

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OBJECTIVES: To determine whether nalmefene combined with psychosocial support is cost-effective compared with psychosocial support alone for reducing alcohol consumption in alcohol-dependent patients with high/very high drinking risk levels (DRLs) as defined by the WHO, and to evaluate the public health benefit of reducing harmful alcohol-attributable diseases, injuries and deaths. DESIGN: Decision modelling using Markov chains compared costs and effects over 5 years. SETTING: The analysis was from the perspective of the National Health Service (NHS) in England and Wales. PARTICIPANTS: The model considered the licensed population for nalmefene, specifically adults with both alcohol dependence and high/very high DRLs, who do not require immediate detoxification and who continue to have high/very high DRLs after initial assessment. DATA SOURCES: We modelled treatment effect using data from three clinical trials for nalmefene (ESENSE 1 (NCT00811720), ESENSE 2 (NCT00812461) and SENSE (NCT00811941)). Baseline characteristics of the model population, treatment resource utilisation and utilities were from these trials. We estimated the number of alcohol-attributable events occurring at different levels of alcohol consumption based on published epidemiological risk-relation studies. Health-related costs were from UK sources. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: We measured incremental cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained and number of alcohol-attributable harmful events avoided. RESULTS: Nalmefene in combination with psychosocial support had an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of £5204 per QALY gained, and was therefore cost-effective at the £20,000 per QALY gained decision threshold. Sensitivity analyses showed that the conclusion was robust. Nalmefene plus psychosocial support led to the avoidance of 7179 alcohol-attributable diseases/injuries and 309 deaths per 100,000 patients compared to psychosocial support alone over the course of 5 years. CONCLUSIONS: Nalmefene can be seen as a cost-effective treatment for alcohol dependence, with substantial public health benefits. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBERS: This cost-effectiveness analysis was developed based on data from three randomised clinical trials: ESENSE 1 (NCT00811720), ESENSE 2 (NCT00812461) and SENSE (NCT00811941).

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