What do we gain from simplicity versus complexity in species distribution models?

Species distribution models (SDMs) are widely used to explain and predict species ranges and environmental niches. They are most commonly constructed by inferring species' occurrence-environment relationships using statistical and machine-learning methods. The variety of methods that can be used to construct SDMs (e.g. generalized linear/additive models, tree-based models, maximum entropy, etc.), and the variety of ways that such models can be implemented, permits substantial flexibility in SDM complexity. Building models with an appropriate amount of complexity for the study objectives is critical for robust inference. We characterize complexity as the shape of the inferred occurrence-environment relationships and the number of parameters used to describe them, and search for insights into whether additional complexity is informative or superfluous. By building 'under fit' models, having insufficient flexibility to describe observed occurrence-environment relationships, we risk misunderstanding the factors shaping species distributions. By building 'over fit' models, with excessive flexibility, we risk inadvertently ascribing pattern to noise or building opaque models. However, model selection can be challenging, especially when comparing models constructed under different modeling approaches. Here we argue for a more pragmatic approach: researchers should constrain the complexity of their models based on study objective, attributes of the data, and an understanding of how these interact with the underlying biological processes. We discuss guidelines for balancing under fitting with over fitting and consequently how complexity affects decisions made during model building. Although some generalities are possible, our discussion reflects differences in opinions that favor simpler versus more complex models. We conclude that combining insights from both simple and complex SDM building approaches best advances our knowledge of current and future species ranges.

Physical activity in 22 African countries: results from the World Health Organization STEPwise approach to chronic disease risk factor surveillance.

BACKGROUND: Baseline physical activity data are needed to effectively plan programs and policies to prevent noncommunicable diseases, but for many African countries these data are lacking. PURPOSE: To describe and compare levels and patterns of physical activity among adults across 22 African countries. METHODS: Data from 57,038 individuals from 22 countries (11 national and 11 subnational samples) that participated in the STEPwise approach to chronic disease risk factor surveillance (2003-2009) were analyzed in 2010. The validated Global Physical Activity Questionnaire (GPAQ) was used to assess days and duration of physical activity at work, for transport, and during leisure time in a typical week. RESULTS: Overall, 83.8% of men and 75.7% of women met WHO physical activity recommendations (at least 150 minutes of moderate activity per week or equivalent). Country prevalence ranged from 46.8% (Mali) to 96.0% (Mozambique). Physical activity, both at work and for transport, including walking, had large contributions to overall physical activity, while physical activity during leisure time was rare in the analyzed countries. CONCLUSIONS: Physical activity levels varied greatly across African countries and population subgroups. Leisure time activity was consistently low. These data will be useful to inform policymakers and to guide interventions to promote physical activity.

Les thyroïdites: une approche pour le médecin praticien [Thyroiditis: an approach for the practitioner].

Thyroiditis represent commonly encountered thyroid disorders in clinical medicine. Autoimmune thyroiditis is frequent with various forms: Hashimoto's thyroiditis, subacute thyroiditis with lymphocytic and post-partum variants. In the absence of any changes in volume and function, Hashimoto's thyroiditis can be seen in a setting of a thyroid nodule, elevation of thyroid autoantibodies and by the pathologist in surgical or cytological materials. Presenting with fever, cervical pain and subtle signs of hyperthyroidism, subacute thyroiditis (De Quervain) represents often a challenge for an early recognition and an appropriate treatment. Acute thyroiditis and Riedel's thyroiditis are very uncommon, with cervical mass and pain.

Syndrome de Sjögren: enfin une nouvelle approche de traitement [Sjögren's syndrome: a new approach to treatment].

Södgren's syndrome treatment has essentially been based on symptomatic approach and has been of limited efficacy. Novel biological therapies targeting B cells, a key player in the pathophysiology of the syndrome, have recently been tested in controlled clinical trials and raise the hope of improving glandular and extraglandular manifestations of Söigren's syndrome.

Cell surface expression of the epithelial Na channel and a mutant causing Liddle syndrome: a quantitative approach.

The epithelial amiloride-sensitive sodium channel (ENaC) controls transepithelial Na+ movement in Na(+)-transporting epithelia and is associated with Liddle syndrome, an autosomal dominant form of salt-sensitive hypertension. Detailed analysis of ENaC channel properties and the functional consequences of mutations causing Liddle syndrome has been, so far, limited by lack of a method allowing specific and quantitative detection of cell-surface-expressed ENaC. We have developed a quantitative assay based on the binding of 125I-labeled M2 anti-FLAG monoclonal antibody (M2Ab*) directed against a FLAG reporter epitope introduced in the extracellular loop of each of the alpha, beta, and gamma ENaC subunits. Insertion of the FLAG epitope into ENaC sequences did not change its functional and pharmacological properties. The binding specificity and affinity (Kd = 3 nM) allowed us to correlate in individual Xenopus oocytes the macroscopic amiloride-sensitive sodium current (INa) with the number of ENaC wild-type and mutant subunits expressed at the cell surface. These experiments demonstrate that: (i) only heteromultimeric channels made of alpha, beta, and gamma ENaC subunits are maximally and efficiently expressed at the cell surface; (ii) the overall ENaC open probability is one order of magnitude lower than previously observed in single-channel recordings; (iii) the mutation causing Liddle syndrome (beta R564stop) enhances channel activity by two mechanisms, i.e., by increasing ENaC cell surface expression and by changing channel open probability. This quantitative approach provides new insights on the molecular mechanisms underlying one form of salt-sensitive hypertension.

The likelihood approach to compare populations : a study on DNA evidence and pitfalls of intuitions

The paper follows on from earlier work [Taroni F and Aitken CGG. Probabilistic reasoning in the law, Part 1: assessment of probabilities and explanation of the value of DNA evidence. Science & Justice 1998; 38: 165-177]. Different explanations of the value of DNA evidence were presented to students from two schools of forensic science and to members of fifteen laboratories all around the world. The responses were divided into two groups; those which came from a school or laboratory identified as Bayesian and those which came from a school or laboratory identified as non-Bayesian. The paper analyses these responses using a likelihood approach. This approach is more consistent with a Bayesian analysis than one based on a frequentist approach, as was reported by Taroni F and Aitken CGG. [Probabilistic reasoning in the law, Part 1: assessment of probabilities and explanation of the value of DNA evidence] in Science & Justice 1998.

Syndrome métabolique, diabète sucré et vulnérabilité: une approche "syndémique" de la maladie chronique [Metabolic syndrome, diabetes mellitus and vulnerability: a syndemic approach of chronic diseases].

The pandemic metabolic syndrome is generally attributed to our lifestyle. The current therapeutic strategies are centered on the behavioral changes and pharmacotherapy. A deeply analysis reveals the importance of the socio-cultural determinants with a "dose-responses effect according to the socio-economic level. The "syndemic" theory, which puts at the same level the socio-cultural environment, the behaviors and biomedecine, suggests a more holistic approach. This theory suggests introducing other partners of care, such cultural-mediators and welfare workers trained in the care, to have finally an approach centered on the roots of the causes. The healthcare networks centered on the management of the costs of health should not forget the socio-cultural dimension, unless wanting to select the good cases.

The metaphysics of quantum gravity : a causal approach

The dissertation investigates some relevant metaphysical issues arising in the context of spacetime theories. In particular, the inquiry focuses on general relativity and canonical quantum gravity. A formal definition of spacetime theory is proposed and, against this framework, an analysis of the notions of general covariance, symmetry and background independence is performed. It is argued that many conceptual issues in general relativity and canonical quantum gravity derive from putting excessive emphasis on general covariance as an ontological prin-ciple. An original metaphysical position grounded in scientific essential- ism and causal realism (weak essentialism) is developed and defended. It is argued that, in the context of general relativity, weak essentialism supports spacetime substantivalism. It is also shown that weak essentialism escapes arguments from metaphysical underdetermination by positing a particular kind of causation, dubbed geometric. The proposed interpretive framework is then applied to Bohmian mechanics, pointing out that weak essentialism nicely fits into this theory. In the end, a possible Bohmian implementation of loop quantum gravity is considered, and such a Bohmian approach is interpreted in a geometric causal fashion. Under this interpretation, Bohmian loop quantum gravity straightforwardly commits us to an ontology of elementary extensions of space whose evolution is described by a non-local law. The causal mechanism underlying this evolution clarifies many conceptual issues related to the emergence of classical spacetime from the quantum regime. Although there is as yet no fully worked out physical theory of quantum gravity, it is argued that the proposed approach sets up a standard that proposals for a serious ontology in this field should meet.

Identifying genetic signatures of selection in a non-model species, alpine gentian (Gentiana nivalis L.), using a landscape genetic approach

It is generally accepted that most plant populations are locally adapted. Yet, understanding how environmental forces give rise to adaptive genetic variation is a challenge in conservation genetics and crucial to the preservation of species under rapidly changing climatic conditions. Environmental variation, phylogeographic history, and population demographic processes all contribute to spatially structured genetic variation, however few current models attempt to separate these confounding effects. To illustrate the benefits of using a spatially-explicit model for identifying potentially adaptive loci, we compared outlier locus detection methods with a recently-developed landscape genetic approach. We analyzed 157 loci from samples of the alpine herb Gentiana nivalis collected across the European Alps. Principle coordinates of neighbor matrices (PCNM), eigenvectors that quantify multi-scale spatial variation present in a data set, were incorporated into a landscape genetic approach relating AFLP frequencies with 23 environmental variables. Four major findings emerged. 1) Fifteen loci were significantly correlated with at least one predictor variable (R (adj) (2) > 0.5). 2) Models including PCNM variables identified eight more potentially adaptive loci than models run without spatial variables. 3) When compared to outlier detection methods, the landscape genetic approach detected four of the same loci plus 11 additional loci. 4) Temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation were the three major environmental factors driving potentially adaptive genetic variation in G. nivalis. Techniques presented in this paper offer an efficient method for identifying potentially adaptive genetic variation and associated environmental forces of selection, providing an important step forward for the conservation of non-model species under global change.

Approche diagnostique et prise en charge des hémoptysies massives [Management of massive hemoptysis : a multidisciplinary approach]

Plus de cent maladies peuvent se manifester par une hémoptysie, qui peut être le reflet d'une pathologie sous-jacente potentiellement sérieuse. Elle n'est massive que dans 5% des cas et devient alors une entité clinique souvent dramatique, mortelle dans 30% des cas, qui nécessite une approche multidisciplinaire en milieu de soins intensifs. Quelques cas cliniques introduisent la discussion des aspects diagnostiques et thérapeutiques de leur prise en charge. Après avoir assuré la survie immédiate, l'origine du saignement sera localisée par une endoscopie qui permettra de réaliser un éventuel tamponnement endobronchique. Une artériographie doit ensuite être effectuée, afin de tenter d'obtenir l'hémostase par embolisation du réseau artériel bronchique responsable de l'épisode d'hémoptysie dans la majorité des cas.

Comparability of clinical wear measurements by optical 3D laser scanning in two different centers.

OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to compare the use of different variables to measure the clinical wear of two denture tooth materials in two analysis centers. METHODS: Twelve edentulous patients were provided with full dentures. Two different denture tooth materials (experimental material and control) were placed randomly in accordance with the split-mouth design. For wear measurements, impressions were made after an adjustment phase of 1-2 weeks and after 6, 12, 18, and 24 months. The occlusal wear of the posterior denture teeth of 11 subjects was assessed in two study centers by use of plaster replicas and 3D laser-scanning methods. In both centers sequential scans of the occlusal surfaces were digitized and superimposed. Wear was described by use of four different variables. Statistical analysis was performed after log-transformation of the wear data by use of the Pearson and Lin correlation and by use of a mixed linear model. RESULTS: Mean occlusal vertical wear of the denture teeth after 24 months was between 120μm and 212μm, depending on wear variable and material. For three of the four variables, wear of the experimental material was statistically significantly less than that of the control. Comparison of the two study centers, however, revealed correlation of the wear variables was only moderate whereas strong correlation was observed among the different wear variables evaluated by each center. SIGNIFICANCE: Moderate correlation was observed for clinical wear measurements by optical 3D laser scanning in two different study centers. For the two denture tooth materials, wear measurements limited to the attrition zones led to the same qualitative assessment.

How unethical actions can be learned : the analysis of the sporting life courses of doping athletes

The aim of the present article was to present a specific activity approach called the 'life course of a practice' that could be used for the analysis of the long-term dynamic of learning within diverse social practices. The cases of unethical actions (doping) within a population of high-level athletes were examined, considering they could be fruitful exam- 10 ples for this type of analysis. After describing the theoretical construct 'life course of a practice', the places of these unethical actions in the sporting life courses and elements that characterize their emergence in the long-term dynamics are described. Last, targeted prevention measures of unethical actions over a lifetime are presented.