War Signals: A Theory of Trade, Trust and Conflict

We construct a dynamic theory of civil conflict hinging on inter-ethnic trust and trade. The model economy is inhabitated by two ethnic groups. Inter-ethnic trade requires imperfectly observed bilateral investments and one group has to form beliefs on the average propensity to trade of the other group. Since conflict disrupts trade, the onset of a conflict signals that the aggressor has a low propensity to trade. Agents observe the history of conflicts and update their beliefs over time, transmitting them to the next generation. The theory bears a set of testable predictions. First, war is a stochastic process whose frequency depends on the state of endogenous beliefs. Second, the probability of future conflicts increases after each conflict episode. Third, "accidental" conflicts that do not reflect economic fundamentals can lead to a permanent breakdown of trust, plunging a society into a vicious cycle of recurrent conflicts (a war trap). The incidence of conflict can be reduced by policies abating cultural barriers, fostering inter-ethnic trade and human capital, and shifting beliefs. Coercive peace policies such as peacekeeping forces or externally imposed regime changes have instead no persistent effects.

Improved accuracy of co-morbidity coding over time after the introduction of ICD-10 administrative data.

BACKGROUND: Co-morbidity information derived from administrative data needs to be validated to allow its regular use. We assessed evolution in the accuracy of coding for Charlson and Elixhauser co-morbidities at three time points over a 5-year period, following the introduction of the International Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision (ICD-10), coding of hospital discharges.METHODS: Cross-sectional time trend evaluation study of coding accuracy using hospital chart data of 3'499 randomly selected patients who were discharged in 1999, 2001 and 2003, from two teaching and one non-teaching hospital in Switzerland. We measured sensitivity, positive predictive and Kappa values for agreement between administrative data coded with ICD-10 and chart data as the 'reference standard' for recording 36 co-morbidities.RESULTS: For the 17 the Charlson co-morbidities, the sensitivity - median (min-max) - was 36.5% (17.4-64.1) in 1999, 42.5% (22.2-64.6) in 2001 and 42.8% (8.4-75.6) in 2003. For the 29 Elixhauser co-morbidities, the sensitivity was 34.2% (1.9-64.1) in 1999, 38.6% (10.5-66.5) in 2001 and 41.6% (5.1-76.5) in 2003. Between 1999 and 2003, sensitivity estimates increased for 30 co-morbidities and decreased for 6 co-morbidities. The increase in sensitivities was statistically significant for six conditions and the decrease significant for one. Kappa values were increased for 29 co-morbidities and decreased for seven.CONCLUSIONS: Accuracy of administrative data in recording clinical conditions improved slightly between 1999 and 2003. These findings are of relevance to all jurisdictions introducing new coding systems, because they demonstrate a phenomenon of improved administrative data accuracy that may relate to a coding 'learning curve' with the new coding system.

The region of mouse mammary tumor virus DNA containing the long terminal repeat includes a long coding sequence and signals for hormonally regulated transcription.

Starting from a biologically active recombinant DNA clone of exogenous unintegrated GR mouse mammary tumor virus, we have generated three subclones of PstI fragments of 1.45, 1.1, and 2.0 kb in the plasmid vector PBR322. The nucleotide sequence has been determined for the clone of 1.45 kb which includes almost the complete region of the long terminal repeat (LTR) plus an adjacent stretch of unique sequence DNA. A short region of the 2.0 kb clone, containing the beginning of the LTR, has also been sequenced. Starting with the A of an initiation codon outside the LTR, we detected an open reading frame of 960 nucleotides, potentially coding for a protein of 320 amino acids (36K). Two hundred nucleotides downstream from the termination codon, and approximately 25 nucleotides upstream from the presumptive initiation site of viral RNA synthesis, we found a promoter-like sequence. The sequence AGTAAA was detected approximately 15-20 nucleotides upstream from the 3' end of virion RNA and probably serves as a polyadenylation signal. The 1.45 kb PstI fragment has been transfected into Ltk- cells together with a plasmid containing the thymidine kinase gene of herpes simplex virus. The virus-specific RNA synthesis detected in a Tk+ cell clone was strongly stimulated by the addition of dexamethasone.

NrsZ: a novel, processed, nitrogen-dependent, small non-coding RNA that regulates Pseudomonas aeruginosa PAO1 virulence.

The opportunistic pathogen Pseudomonas aeruginosa PAO1 has a remarkable capacity to adapt to various environments and to survive with limited nutrients. Here, we report the discovery and characterization of a novel small non-coding RNA: NrsZ (nitrogen-regulated sRNA). We show that under nitrogen limitation, NrsZ is induced by the NtrB/C two component system, an important regulator of nitrogen assimilation and P. aeruginosa's swarming motility, in concert with the alternative sigma factor RpoN. Furthermore, we demonstrate that NrsZ modulates P. aeruginosa motility by controlling the production of rhamnolipid surfactants, virulence factors notably needed for swarming motility. This regulation takes place through the post-transcriptional control of rhlA, a gene essential for rhamnolipids synthesis. Interestingly, we also observed that NrsZ is processed in three similar short modules, and that the first short module encompassing the first 60 nucleotides is sufficient for NrsZ regulatory functions.

Mapping of a gene coding for a major late structural polypeptide on the vaccinia virus genome.

Cell-free translation of total RNA isolated from vaccinia virus-infected cells late in infection results in a complex mixture of polypeptides. A monospecific antibody directed against one of the major structural proteins of the virus particle immunoprecipitated a single polypeptide with a molecular weight of 11,000 (11K) from this mixture. Immunoprecipitation was therefore used to identify the structural polypeptide among the in vitro translation products of RNA purified by hybridization selection to restriction fragments of the vaccinia virus genome. This allowed us to map the mRNA coding for the 11K polypeptide to the extreme left-hand end of the HindIII E fragment. Detailed transcriptional mapping of this region of the genome by nuclease S1 analysis revealed the presence of a late RNA transcribed from the rightward-reading strand. Its 5' end mapped at ca. 130 base pairs to the left of the HindIII site at the junction between the HindIII F and E fragments. The map position of this RNA coincided precisely with the map position of the late message coding for the 11K polypeptide.

Molecular changes underlying mammalian phenotypic innovation

Mammals are characterized by specific phenotypic traits that include lactation, hair, and relatively large brains with unique structures. Individual mammalian lineages have, in turn, evolved characteristic traits that distinguish them from others. These include obvious anatom¬ical differences but also differences related to reproduction, life span, cognitive abilities, be¬havior. and disease susceptibility. However, the molecular basis of the diverse mammalian phenotypes and the selective pressures that shaped their evolution remain largely unknown. In the first part of my thesis, I analyzed the genetic factors associated with the origin of a unique mammalian phenotype lactation and I studied the selective pressures that forged the transition from oviparity to viviparity. Using a comparative genomics approach and evolutionary simulations, I showed that the emergence of lactation, as well as the appear¬ance of the casein gene family, significantly reduced selective pressure on the major egg-yolk proteins (the vitellogenin family). This led to a progressive loss of vitellogenins, which - in oviparous species - act as storage proteins for lipids, amino acids, phosphorous and calcium in the isolated egg. The passage to internal fertilization and placentation in therian mam¬mals rendered vitellogenins completely dispensable, which ended in the loss of the whole gene family in this lineage. As illustrated by the vitellogenin study, changes in gene content are one possible underlying factor for the evolution of mammalian-specific phenotypes. However, more subtle genomic changes, such as mutations in protein-coding sequences, can also greatly affect the phenotypes. In particular, it was proposed that changes at the level of gene reg¬ulation could underlie many (or even most) phenotypic differences between species. In the second part of my thesis, I participated in a major comparative study of mammalian tissue transcriptomes, with the goal of understanding how evolutionary forces affected expression patterns in the past 200 million years of mammalian evolution. I showed that, while com¬parisons of gene expressions are in agreement with the known species phylogeny, the rate of expression evolution varies greatly among lineages. Species with low effective population size, such as monotremes and hominoids, showed significantly accelerated rates of gene expression evolution. The most likely explanation for the high rate of gene expression evolution in these lineages is the accumulation of mildly deleterious mutations in regulatory regions, due to the low efficiency of purifying selection. Thus, our observations are in agreement with the nearly neutral theory of molecular evolution. I also describe substantial differences in evolutionary rates between tissues, with brain being the most constrained (especially in primates) and testis significantly accelerated. The rate of gene expression evolution also varies significantly between chromosomes. In particular, I observed an acceleration of gene expression changes on the X chromosome, probably as a result of adaptive processes associated with the origin of therian sex chromosomes. Lastly, I identified several individual genes as well as co-regulated expression modules that have undergone lineage specific expression changes and likely under¬lie various phenotypic innovations in mammals. The methods developed during my thesis, as well as the comprehensive gene content analyses and transcriptomics datasets made available by our group, will likely prove to be useful for further exploratory analyses of the diverse mammalian phenotypes.

Small and long non-coding RNAs in cardiac homeostasis and regeneration

Cardiovascular diseases and in particular heart failure are major causes of morbidity and mortality in the Western world. Recently, the notion of promoting cardiac regeneration as a means to replace lost cardiomyocytes in the damaged heart has engendered considerable research interest. These studies envisage the utilization of both endogenous and exogenous cellular populations, which undergo highly specialized cell fate transitions to promote cardiomyocyte replenishment. Such transitions are under the control of regenerative gene regulatory networks, which are enacted by the integrated execution of specific transcriptional programs. In this context, it is emerging that the non-coding portion of the genome is dynamically transcribed generating thousands of regulatory small and long non-coding RNAs, which are central orchestrators of these networks. In this review, we discuss more particularly the biological roles of two classes of regulatory non-coding RNAs, i.e. microRNAs and long non-coding RNAs, with a particular emphasis on their known and putative roles in cardiac homeostasis and regeneration. Indeed, manipulating non-coding RNA-mediated regulatory networks could provide keys to unlock the dormant potential of the mammalian heart to regenerate. This should ultimately improve the effectiveness of current regenerative strategies and discover new avenues for repair. This article is part of a Special Issue entitled: Cardiomyocyte Biology: Cardiac Pathways of Differentiation, Metabolism and Contraction.

Assaying the regulatory potential of mammalian conserved non-coding sequences in human cells.

BACKGROUND: Conserved non-coding sequences in the human genome are approximately tenfold more abundant than known genes, and have been hypothesized to mark the locations of cis-regulatory elements. However, the global contribution of conserved non-coding sequences to the transcriptional regulation of human genes is currently unknown. Deeply conserved elements shared between humans and teleost fish predominantly flank genes active during morphogenesis and are enriched for positive transcriptional regulatory elements. However, such deeply conserved elements account for <1% of the conserved non-coding sequences in the human genome, which are predominantly mammalian. RESULTS: We explored the regulatory potential of a large sample of these 'common' conserved non-coding sequences using a variety of classic assays, including chromatin remodeling, and enhancer/repressor and promoter activity. When tested across diverse human model cell types, we find that the fraction of experimentally active conserved non-coding sequences within any given cell type is low (approximately 5%), and that this proportion increases only modestly when considered collectively across cell types. CONCLUSIONS: The results suggest that classic assays of cis-regulatory potential are unlikely to expose the functional potential of the substantial majority of mammalian conserved non-coding sequences in the human genome.

Identifying protein-coding genes in genomic sequences.

The vast majority of the biology of a newly sequenced genome is inferred from the set of encoded proteins. Predicting this set is therefore invariably the first step after the completion of the genome DNA sequence. Here we review the main computational pipelines used to generate the human reference protein-coding gene sets.