How robust are global conservation priorities to climate change?

International conservation organisations have identified priority areas for biodiversity conservation. These global-scale prioritisations affect the distribution of funds for conservation interventions. As each organisation has a different focus, each prioritisation scheme is determined by different decision criteria and the resultant priority areas vary considerably. However, little is known about how the priority areas will respond to the impacts of climate change. In this paper, we examined the robustness of eight global-scale prioritisations to climate change under various climate predictions from seven global circulation models. We developed a novel metric of the climate stability for 803 ecoregions based on a recently introduced method to estimate the overlap of climate envelopes. The relationships between the decision criteria and the robustness of the global prioritisation schemes were statistically examined. We found that decision criteria related to level of endemism and landscape fragmentation were strongly correlated with areas predicted to be robust to a changing climate. Hence, policies that prioritise intact areas due to the likely cost efficiency, and assumptions related to the potential to mitigate the impacts of climate change, require further examination. Our findings will help determine where additional management is required to enable biodiversity to adapt to the impacts of climate change

Climate change, anthropogenic disturbance and the northward range expansion of Lactuca serriola (Asteraceae)

The distribution range of Lactuca serriola, a species native to the summer-dry mediterranean climate, has expanded northwards during the last 250 years. This paper assesses the influence of climate on the range expansion of this species and highlights the importance of anthropogenic disturbance to its spread. Location Central and Northern Europe. Methods Data on the geographic distribution of L. serriola were assembled through a literature search as well as through floristic and herbarium surveys. Maps of the spread of L. serriola in Central and Northern Europe were prepared based on herbarium data. The spread was assessed more precisely in Germany, Austria and Great Britain by pooling herbarium and literature data. We modelled the bioclimatic niche of the species using occurrence and climatic data covering the last century to generate projections of suitable habitats under the climatic conditions of five time periods. We tested whether the observed distribution of L. serriola could be explained for each time period, assuming that the climatic niche of the species was conserved across time. Results The species has spread northwards since the beginning of the 19th century. We show that climate warming in Europe increased the number of sites suitable for the species at northern latitudes. Until the late 1970s, the distribution of the species corresponded to the climatically suitable sites available. For the last two decades, however, we could not show any significant relationship between the increase in suitable sites and the distributional range change of L. serriola. However, we highlight potential areas the species could spread to in the future (Great Britain, southern Scandinavia and the Swedish coast). It is predominantly non-climatic influences of global change that have contributed to its rapid spread. Main conclusions The observation that colonizing species are not filling their climatically suitable range might imply that, potentially, other ruderal species could expand far beyond their current range. Our work highlights the importance of historical floristic and herbarium data for understanding the expansion of a species. Such historical distributional data can provide valuable information for those planning the management of contemporary environmental problems, such as species responses to environmental change.

Gac/Rsm signal transduction pathway of gamma-proteobacteria: from RNA recognition to regulation of social behaviour.

In many gamma-proteobacteria, the conserved GacS/GacA (BarA/UvrY) two-component system positively controls the expression of one to five genes specifying small RNAs (sRNAs) that are characterized by repeated unpaired GGA motifs but otherwise appear to belong to several independent families. The GGA motifs are essential for binding small, dimeric RNA-binding proteins of a single conserved family designated RsmA (CsrA). These proteins, which also occur in bacterial species outside the gamma-proteobacteria, act as translational repressors of certain mRNAs when these contain an RsmA/CsrA binding site at or near the Shine-Dalgarno sequence plus additional binding sites located in the 5' untranslated leader mRNA. Recent structural data have established that the RsmA-like protein RsmE of Pseudomonas fluorescens makes specific contacts with an RNA consensus sequence 5'-(A)/(U)CANGGANG(U)/(A)-3' (where N is any nucleotide). Interaction with an RsmA/CsrA protein promotes the formation of a short stem supporting an ANGGAN loop. This conformation hinders access of 30S ribosomal subunits and hence translation initiation. The output of the Gac/Rsm cascade varies widely in different bacterial species and typically involves management of carbon storage and expression of virulence or biocontrol factors. Unidentified signal molecules co-ordinate the activity of the Gac/Rsm cascade in a cell population density-dependent manner.

Tree line shifts in the Swiss Alps: Climate change or land abandonment?

Questions: Did the forest area in the Swiss Alps increase between 1985 and 1997? Does the forest expansion near the tree line represent an invasion into abandoned grasslands (ingrowth) or a true upward shift of the local tree line? What land cover / land use classes did primarily regenerate to forest, and what forest structural types did primarily regenerate? And, what are possible drivers of forest regeneration in the tree line ecotone, climate and/or land use change? Location: Swiss Alps. Methods: Forest expansion was quantified using data from the repeated Swiss land use statistics GEOSTAT. A moving window algorithm was developed to distinguish between forest ingrowth and upward shift. To test a possible climate change influence, the resulting upward shifts were compared to a potential regional tree line. Results: A significant increase of forest cover was found between 1650 to and 2450 m. Above 1650 m, 10% of the new forest areas were identified as true upward shifts whereas 90% represented ingrowth, and we identified both land use and climate change as likely drivers. Most upward shift activities were found to occur within a band of 300 m below the potential regional tree line, indicating land use as the most likely driver. Only 4% of the upward shifts were identified to rise above the potential regional tree line, thus indicating climate change. Conclusions: Land abandonment was the most dominant driver for the establishment of new forest areas, even at the tree line ecotone. However, a small fraction of upwards shift can be attributed to the recent climate warming, a fraction that is likely to increase further if climate continues to warm, and with a longer time-span between warming and measurement of forest cover.

An alternative socio-ecological strategy? International Trade Unions' engagement with climate change

In the context of a global ecological crisis, it is an important move when trade unions turn to environmentalism. Yet, the form that this environmentalism takes is often overlooked. This is especially the case with international trade unions. Based on an empirical study of international trade unions' engagement with the climate change issue, this article argues that international trade unions follow three different (and partially conflicting) strategies. I label these strategies as 'deliberative', 'collaborative growth' and 'socialist', and I examine each in turn. I argue that such analysis is important if we want to identify the potential for transforming the social relations of production that are at the root of the current climate crisis, and for identifying an alternative socio-ecological strategy.

Tunable reporter signal production in feedback-uncoupled arsenic bioreporters.

Escherichia coli-based bioreporters for arsenic detection are typically based on the natural feedback loop that controls ars operon transcription. Feedback loops are known to show a wide range linear response to the detriment of the overall amplification of the incoming signal. While being a favourable feature in controlling arsenic detoxification for the cell, a feedback loop is not necessarily the most optimal for obtaining highest sensitivity and response in a designed cellular reporter for arsenic detection. Here we systematically explore the effects of uncoupling the topology of arsenic sensing circuitry on the developed reporter signal as a function of arsenite concentration input. A model was developed to describe relative ArsR and GFP levels in feedback and uncoupled circuitry, which was used to explore new ArsR-based synthetic circuits. The expression of arsR was then placed under the control of a series of constitutive promoters, which differed in promoter strength, and which could be further modulated by TetR repression. Expression of the reporter gene was maintained under the ArsR-controlled Pars promoter. ArsR expression in the systems was measured by using ArsR-mCherry fusion proteins. We find that stronger constitutive ArsR production decreases arsenite-dependent EGFP output from Pars and vice versa. This leads to a tunable series of arsenite-dependent EGFP outputs in a variety of systematically characterized circuitries. The higher expression levels and sensitivities of the response curves in the uncoupled circuits may be useful for improving field-test assays using arsenic bioreporters.

21st century climate change: where has all the geomorphology gone?

This Commentary draws together recently published work relating to the relationship between climate change and geomorphology to address the surprising observation that geomorphic work seems to have had little impact upon the work of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change. However, recent papers show that methodological innovation has allowed geomorphological reconstruction over timescales highly relevant to late 20th century and 21st century climate change. In turn, these and other developments are allowing links to be made between climatic variability and geomorphology, to begin to predict geomorphic futures and also to appreciate the role that geomorphic processes play in the flux of carbon and the carbon cycle.

Echo-time independent signal modulations for strongly coupled systems in triple echo localization schemes: an extension of S-PRESS editing.

The double spin-echo point resolved spectroscopy sequence (PRESS) is a widely used method and standard in clinical MR spectroscopy. Existence of important J-modulations at constant echo times, depending on the temporal delays between the rf-pulses, have been demonstrated recently for strongly coupled spin systems and were exploited for difference editing, removing singlets from the spectrum (strong-coupling PRESS, S-PRESS). A drawback of this method for in vivo applications is that large signal modulations needed for difference editing occur only at relatively long echo times. In this work we demonstrate that, by simply adding a third refocusing pulse (3S-PRESS), difference editing becomes possible at substantially shorter echo times while, as applied to citrate, more favorable lineshapes can be obtained. For the example of an AB system an analytical description of the MR signal, obtained with this triple refocusing sequence (3S-PRESS), is provided.

Relatedness influences signal reliability in evolving robots.

Communication is an indispensable component of animal societies, yet many open questions remain regarding the factors affecting the evolution and reliability of signalling systems. A potentially important factor is the level of genetic relatedness between signallers and receivers. To quantitatively explore the role of relatedness in the evolution of reliable signals, we conducted artificial evolution over 500 generations in a system of foraging robots that can emit and perceive light signals. By devising a quantitative measure of signal reliability, and comparing independently evolving populations differing in within-group relatedness, we show a strong positive correlation between relatedness and reliability. Unrelated robots produced unreliable signals, whereas highly related robots produced signals that reliably indicated the location of the food source and thereby increased performance. Comparisons across populations also revealed that the frequency for signal production-which is often used as a proxy of signal reliability in empirical studies on animal communication-is a poor predictor of signal reliability and, accordingly, is not consistently correlated with group performance. This has important implications for our understanding of signal evolution and the empirical tools that are used to investigate communication.

Movement, impacts and management of plant distributions in response to climate change: insights from invasions

A major challenge in this era of rapid climate change is to predict changes in species distributions and their impacts on ecosystems, and, if necessary, to recommend management strategies for maintenance of biodiversity or ecosystem services. Biological invasions, studied in most biomes of the world, can provide useful analogs for some of the ecological consequences of species distribution shifts in response to climate change. Invasions illustrate the adaptive and interactive responses that can occur when species are confronted with new environmental conditions. Invasion ecology complements climate change research and provides insights into the following questions: i) how will species distributions respond to climate change? ii) how will species movement affect recipient ecosystems? and iii) should we, and if so how can we, manage species and ecosystems in the face of climate change? Invasion ecology demonstrates that a trait-based approach can help to predict spread speeds and impacts on ecosystems, and has the potential to predict climate change impacts on species ranges and recipient ecosystems. However, there is a need to analyse traits in the context of life-history and demography, the stage in the colonisation process (e.g., spread, establishment or impact), the distribution of suitable habitats in the landscape, and the novel abiotic and biotic conditions under which those traits are expressed. As is the case with climate change, invasion ecology is embedded within complex societal goals. Both disciplines converge on similar questions of "when to intervene?" and "what to do?" which call for a better understanding of the ecological processes and social values associated with changing ecosystems.

Effects of phylogenetic signal on ancestral state reconstruction.

One of the standard tools used to understand the processes shaping trait evolution along the branches of a phylogenetic tree is the reconstruction of ancestral states (Pagel 1999). The purpose is to estimate the values of the trait of interest for every internal node of a phylogenetic tree based on the trait values of the extant species, a topology and, depending on the method used, branch lengths and a model of trait evolution (Ronquist 2004). This approach has been used in a variety of contexts such as biogeography (e.g., Nepokroeff et al. 2003, Blackburn 2008), ecological niche evolution (e.g., Smith and Beaulieu 2009, Evans et al. 2009) and metabolic pathway evolution (e.g., Gabaldón 2003, Christin et al. 2008). Investigations of the factors affecting the accuracy with which ancestral character states can be reconstructed have focused in particular on the choice of statistical framework (Ekman et al. 2008) and the selection of the best model of evolution (Cunningham et al. 1998, Mooers et al. 1999). However, other potential biases affecting these methods, such as the effect of tree shape (Mooers 2004), taxon sampling (Salisbury and Kim 2001) as well as reconstructing traits involved in species diversification (Goldberg and Igić 2008), have also received specific attention. Most of these studies conclude that ancestral character states reconstruction is still not perfect, and that further developments are necessary to improve its accuracy (e.g., Christin et al. 2010). Here, we examine how different estimations of branch lengths affect the accuracy of ancestral character state reconstruction. In particular, we tested the effect of using time-calibrated versus molecular branch lengths and provide guidelines to select the most appropriate branch lengths to reconstruct the ancestral state of a trait.

Sequence determinants of a microtubule tip localization signal (MtLS).

Microtubule plus-end-tracking proteins (+TIPs) specifically localize to the growing plus-ends of microtubules to regulate microtubule dynamics and functions. A large group of +TIPs contain a short linear motif, SXIP, which is essential for them to bind to end-binding proteins (EBs) and target microtubule ends. The SXIP sequence site thus acts as a widespread microtubule tip localization signal (MtLS). Here we have analyzed the sequence-function relationship of a canonical MtLS. Using synthetic peptide arrays on membrane supports, we identified the residue preferences at each amino acid position of the SXIP motif and its surrounding sequence with respect to EB binding. We further developed an assay based on fluorescence polarization to assess the mechanism of the EB-SXIP interaction and to correlate EB binding and microtubule tip tracking of MtLS sequences from different +TIPs. Finally, we investigated the role of phosphorylation in regulating the EB-SXIP interaction. Together, our results define the sequence determinants of a canonical MtLS and provide the experimental data for bioinformatics approaches to carry out genome-wide predictions of novel +TIPs in multiple organisms.

Fat signal suppression for coronary MRA at 3T using a water-selective adiabatic T2 -preparation technique.

PURPOSE: To improve fat saturation in coronary MRA at 3T by using a spectrally selective adiabatic T2 -Prep (WSA-T2 -Prep). METHODS: A conventional adiabatic T2 -Prep (CA-T2 -Prep) was modified, such that the excitation and restoration pulses were of differing bandwidths. On-resonance spins are T2 -Prepared, whereas off-resonance spins, such as fat, are spoiled. This approach was combined with a CHEmically Selective Saturation (CHESS) pulse to achieve even greater fat suppression. Numerical simulations were followed by phantom validation and in vivo coronary MRA. RESULTS: Numerical simulations demonstrated that augmenting a CHESS pulse with a WSA-T2 -Prep improved robustness to B1 inhomogeneities and that this combined fat suppression was effective over a broader spectral range than that of a CHESS pulse in a conventional T2 -Prepared sequence. Phantom studies also demonstrated that the WSA-T2 -Prep+CHESS combination produced greater fat suppression across a range of B1 values than did a CA-T2 -Prep+CHESS combination. Lastly, in vivo measurements demonstrated that the contrast-to-noise ratio between blood and myocardium was not adversely affected by using a WSA-T2 -Prep, despite the improved abdominal and epicardial fat suppression. Additionally, vessel sharpness improved. CONCLUSION: The proposed WSA-T2 -Prep method was shown to improve fat suppression and vessel sharpness as compared to a CA-T2 -Prep technique, and to also increase fat suppression when combined with a CHESS pulse.