Ruin problems under IBNR Dynamics

In this paper, we consider a discrete-time risk process allowing for delay in claim settlement, which introduces a certain type of dependence in the process. From martingale theory, an expression for the ultimate ruin probability is obtained, and Lundberg-type inequalities are derived. The impact of delay in claim settlement is then investigated. To this end, a convex order comparison of the aggregate claim amounts is performed with the corresponding non-delayed risk model, and numerical simulations are carried out with Belgian market data.

Three essays in dynamic corporate finance

The three essays constituting this thesis focus on financing and cash management policy. The first essay aims to shed light on why firms issue debt so conservatively. In particular, it examines the effects of shareholder and creditor protection on capital structure choices. It starts by building a contingent claims model where financing policy results from a trade-off between tax benefits, contracting costs and agency costs. In this setup, controlling shareholders can divert part of the firms' cash ows as private benefits at the expense of minority share- holders. In addition, shareholders as a class can behave strategically at the time of default leading to deviations from the absolute priority rule. The analysis demonstrates that investor protection is a first order determinant of firms' financing choices and that conflicts of interests between firm claimholders may help explain the level and cross-sectional variation of observed leverage ratios. The second essay focuses on the practical relevance of agency conflicts. De- spite the theoretical development of the literature on agency conflicts and firm policy choices, the magnitude of manager-shareholder conflicts is still an open question. This essay proposes a methodology for quantifying these agency conflicts. To do so, it examines the impact of managerial entrenchment on corporate financing decisions. It builds a dynamic contingent claims model in which managers do not act in the best interest of shareholders, but rather pursue private benefits at the expense of shareholders. Managers have discretion over financing and dividend policies. However, shareholders can remove the manager at a cost. The analysis demonstrates that entrenched managers restructure less frequently and issue less debt than optimal for shareholders. I take the model to the data and use observed financing choices to provide firm-specific estimates of the degree of managerial entrenchment. Using structural econometrics, I find costs of control challenges of 2-7% on average (.8-5% at median). The estimates of the agency costs vary with variables that one expects to determine managerial incentives. In addition, these costs are sufficient to resolve the low- and zero-leverage puzzles and explain the time series of observed leverage ratios. Finally, the analysis shows that governance mechanisms significantly affect the value of control and firms' financing decisions. The third essay is concerned with the documented time trend in corporate cash holdings by Bates, Kahle and Stulz (BKS,2003). BKS find that firms' cash holdings double from 10% to 20% over the 1980 to 2005 period. This essay provides an explanation of this phenomenon by examining the effects of product market competition on firms' cash holdings in the presence of financial constraints. It develops a real options model in which cash holdings may be used to cover unexpected operating losses and avoid inefficient closure. The model generates new predictions relating cash holdings to firm and industry characteristics such as the intensity of competition, cash flow volatility, or financing constraints. The empirical examination of the model shows strong support of model's predictions. In addition, it shows that the time trend in cash holdings documented by BKS can be at least partly attributed to a competition effect.

Exploring transparent approaches to the authentication of signatures on artwork

This thesis is composed of three main parts. The first consists of a state of the art of the different notions that are significant to understand the elements surrounding art authentication in general, and of signatures in particular, and that the author deemed them necessary to fully grasp the microcosm that makes up this particular market. Individuals with a solid knowledge of the art and expertise area, and that are particularly interested in the present study are advised to advance directly to the fourth Chapter. The expertise of the signature, it's reliability, and the factors impacting the expert's conclusions are brought forward. The final aim of the state of the art is to offer a general list of recommendations based on an exhaustive review of the current literature and given in light of all of the exposed issues. These guidelines are specifically formulated for the expertise of signatures on paintings, but can also be applied to wider themes in the area of signature examination. The second part of this thesis covers the experimental stages of the research. It consists of the method developed to authenticate painted signatures on works of art. This method is articulated around several main objectives: defining measurable features on painted signatures and defining their relevance in order to establish the separation capacities between groups of authentic and simulated signatures. For the first time, numerical analyses of painted signatures have been obtained and are used to attribute their authorship to given artists. An in-depth discussion of the developed method constitutes the third and final part of this study. It evaluates the opportunities and constraints when applied by signature and handwriting experts in forensic science. A brief summary covering each chapter allows a rapid overview of the study and summarizes the aims and main themes of each chapter. These outlines presented below summarize the aims and main themes addressed in each chapter. Part I - Theory Chapter 1 exposes legal aspects surrounding the authentication of works of art by art experts. The definition of what is legally authentic, the quality and types of the experts that can express an opinion concerning the authorship of a specific painting, and standard deontological rules are addressed. The practices applied in Switzerland will be specifically dealt with. Chapter 2 presents an overview of the different scientific analyses that can be carried out on paintings (from the canvas to the top coat). Scientific examinations of works of art have become more common, as more and more museums equip themselves with laboratories, thus an understanding of their role in the art authentication process is vital. The added value that a signature expertise can have in comparison to other scientific techniques is also addressed. Chapter 3 provides a historical overview of the signature on paintings throughout the ages, in order to offer the reader an understanding of the origin of the signature on works of art and its evolution through time. An explanation is given on the transitions that the signature went through from the 15th century on and how it progressively took on its widely known modern form. Both this chapter and chapter 2 are presented to show the reader the rich sources of information that can be provided to describe a painting, and how the signature is one of these sources. Chapter 4 focuses on the different hypotheses the FHE must keep in mind when examining a painted signature, since a number of scenarios can be encountered when dealing with signatures on works of art. The different forms of signatures, as well as the variables that may have an influence on the painted signatures, are also presented. Finally, the current state of knowledge of the examination procedure of signatures in forensic science in general, and in particular for painted signatures, is exposed. The state of the art of the assessment of the authorship of signatures on paintings is established and discussed in light of the theoretical facets mentioned previously. Chapter 5 considers key elements that can have an impact on the FHE during his or her2 examinations. This includes a discussion on elements such as the skill, confidence and competence of an expert, as well as the potential bias effects he might encounter. A better understanding of elements surrounding handwriting examinations, to, in turn, better communicate results and conclusions to an audience, is also undertaken. Chapter 6 reviews the judicial acceptance of signature analysis in Courts and closes the state of the art section of this thesis. This chapter brings forward the current issues pertaining to the appreciation of this expertise by the non- forensic community, and will discuss the increasing number of claims of the unscientific nature of signature authentication. The necessity to aim for more scientific, comprehensive and transparent authentication methods will be discussed. The theoretical part of this thesis is concluded by a series of general recommendations for forensic handwriting examiners in forensic science, specifically for the expertise of signatures on paintings. These recommendations stem from the exhaustive review of the literature and the issues exposed from this review and can also be applied to the traditional examination of signatures (on paper). Part II - Experimental part Chapter 7 describes and defines the sampling, extraction and analysis phases of the research. The sampling stage of artists' signatures and their respective simulations are presented, followed by the steps that were undertaken to extract and determine sets of characteristics, specific to each artist, that describe their signatures. The method is based on a study of five artists and a group of individuals acting as forgers for the sake of this study. Finally, the analysis procedure of these characteristics to assess of the strength of evidence, and based on a Bayesian reasoning process, is presented. Chapter 8 outlines the results concerning both the artist and simulation corpuses after their optical observation, followed by the results of the analysis phase of the research. The feature selection process and the likelihood ratio evaluation are the main themes that are addressed. The discrimination power between both corpuses is illustrated through multivariate analysis. Part III - Discussion Chapter 9 discusses the materials, the methods, and the obtained results of the research. The opportunities, but also constraints and limits, of the developed method are exposed. Future works that can be carried out subsequent to the results of the study are also presented. Chapter 10, the last chapter of this thesis, proposes a strategy to incorporate the model developed in the last chapters into the traditional signature expertise procedures. Thus, the strength of this expertise is discussed in conjunction with the traditional conclusions reached by forensic handwriting examiners in forensic science. Finally, this chapter summarizes and advocates a list of formal recommendations for good practices for handwriting examiners. In conclusion, the research highlights the interdisciplinary aspect of signature examination of signatures on paintings. The current state of knowledge of the judicial quality of art experts, along with the scientific and historical analysis of paintings and signatures, are overviewed to give the reader a feel of the different factors that have an impact on this particular subject. The temperamental acceptance of forensic signature analysis in court, also presented in the state of the art, explicitly demonstrates the necessity of a better recognition of signature expertise by courts of law. This general acceptance, however, can only be achieved by producing high quality results through a well-defined examination process. This research offers an original approach to attribute a painted signature to a certain artist: for the first time, a probabilistic model used to measure the discriminative potential between authentic and simulated painted signatures is studied. The opportunities and limits that lie within this method of scientifically establishing the authorship of signatures on works of art are thus presented. In addition, the second key contribution of this work proposes a procedure to combine the developed method into that used traditionally signature experts in forensic science. Such an implementation into the holistic traditional signature examination casework is a large step providing the forensic, judicial and art communities with a solid-based reasoning framework for the examination of signatures on paintings. The framework and preliminary results associated with this research have been published (Montani, 2009a) and presented at international forensic science conferences (Montani, 2009b; Montani, 2012).

Authorship in scientific publications: analysis and recommendations.

In 2008, a Swiss Academies of Arts and Sciences working group chaired by Professor Emilio Bossi issued a "Memorandum on scientific integrity and the handling of misconduct in the scientific context", together with a paper setting out principles and procedures concerning integrity in scientific research. In the Memorandum, unjustified claims of authorship in scientific publications are referred to as a form of scientific misconduct - a view widely shared in other countries. In the Principles and Procedures, the main criteria for legitimate authorship are specified, as well as the associated responsibilities. It is in fact not uncommon for disputes about authorship to arise with regard to publications in fields where research is generally conducted by teams rather than individuals. Such disputes may concern not only the question who is or is not to be listed as an author but also, frequently, the precise sequence of names, if the list is to reflect the various authors' roles and contributions. Subjective assessments of the contributions made by the individual members of a research group may differ substantially. As scientific collaboration - often across national boundaries - is now increasingly common, ensuring appropriate recognition of all parties is a complex matter and, where disagreements arise, it may not be easy to reach a consensus. In addition, customs have changed over the past few decades; for example, the practice of granting "honorary" authorship to an eminent researcher - formerly not unusual - is no longer considered acceptable. It should be borne in mind that the publications list has become by far the most important indicator of a researcher's scientific performance; for this reason, appropriate authorship credit has become a decisive factor in the careers of young researchers, and it needs to be managed and protected accordingly. At the international and national level, certain practices have therefore developed concerning the listing of authors and the obligations of authorship. The Scientific Integrity Committee of the Swiss Academies of Arts and Sciences has collated the relevant principles and regulations and formulated recommendations for authorship in scientific publications. These should help to prevent authorship disputes and offer guidance in the event of conflicts.

Diagnosis by imaging : the case of textbooks of diseases of the nervous system (1850-1920)

Les traités scientifiques ne font que depuis peu d'années l'objet d'études en histoire des sciences. Pourtant, ces traités ont énormément à apporter car ils renseignent sur la manière de raisonner des auteurs, ainsi que sur le développement d'une discipline. Dans ce travail de doctorat, différents traités des maladies du système nerveux ont été dépouillés, notamment le traité de Sémiologie des affections du système nerveux (1914) de Jules Dejerine (1849-1917). Ce traité a été analysé de trois manières différentes. Il a tout d'abord été comparé à une édition précédente publiée sous forme de chapitre (1901), révélant un large remodelage du contenu du traité, suggérant une évolution rapide de la discipline neurologique en l'espace de quelques années. Deuxièmement, l'analyse de la Sémiologie a permis de recréer un réseau de professionnels avec qui Jules Dejerine était en contact et, en parcourant les livres publiés par ces auteurs, il a été possible de décrire de quelle manière ces auteurs se citent mutuellement. Finalement, ces livres contiennent de nombreuses illustrations, qui sont associées à la notion de « preuve » : les auteurs utilisent des images sous forme de dessins, de photographies ou de schémas qui illustrent des patients ou des pièces anatomiques pour « montrer » la maladie ou la lésion. Chaque illustration a un rôle à jouer pour décrire la lésion, montrer la progression de la maladie et elle aide le médecin à poser le diagnostic. Grâce à ces trois axes de recherche, un traité devient un outil de travail dynamique, qui évolue au fil des rééditions, influencé par les critiques et commentaires retrouvés dans d'autres traités et articles, et par les progrès accomplis dans la discipline traitée. Des, passages et certaines images de l'ouvrage circulent également de traité en traité et véhiculent l'autorité de l'auteur de ces passages et images qui en viennent à représenter la maladie. Ce transfert d'images joue également un rôle dans la standardisation du diagnostic et dans l'unification de la neurologie à travers le monde occidental au début du XXe siècle, une période charnière pour l'histoire de la médecine. -- Au début du XXe siècle, la neurologie est une jeune spécialité médicale qui se développe rapidement. Les différents médecins publient des traités, communiquent entre eux et échangent leurs données. Un traité scientifique est un outil de travail dynamique qui évolue avec les rééditions et le développement d'une discipline. Ces ouvrages recèlent toutes sortes d'informations et leur analyse ne fait que depuis peu de temps l'objet d'études en histoire des sciences. Ces traités regorgent notamment d'illustrations qui sont associées à la notion de « preuve » : les auteurs utilisent des images sous forme de dessins, de photographies ou de schémas qui représentent des patients ou des pièces anatomiques afin de « montrer » la maladie ou la lésion. Chaque illustration a un rôle à jouer pour décrire la pathologie, montrer la progression de la maladie et elle aide le médecin à poser le diagnostic. Les auteurs des traités, qui viennent d'Europe et d'Amérique du Nord, se citent mutuellement, permettant au lecteur de recréer leur réseau de professionnels au niveau international. De plus, comme ces auteurs réutilisent les observations et les illustrations des autres, celles-ci circulent de traité en traité et en viennent à représenter la maladie. Ce transfert d'images joue également un rôle dans la standardisation du diagnostic et dans l'unification de la neurologie à travers le monde occidental au début du XXe siècle, une période charnière pour l'histoire de la médecine. -- Until recently, the study of textbooks has been neglected in the history of the sciences. However, textbooks can provide fruitful sources of information regarding the way authors work and the development of a particular discipline. This dissertation reviews editions of a single textbook, the Sémiologie des affections du système nerveux (1914) by Jules Dejerine (1849-1917). This textbook enabled the description of three axes of research. Firstly, by comparing the book to a first edition published as a chapter, one can acknowledge an extensive remodeling of the content of the book, suggesting a vast increase in knowledge over time. Secondly, by looking at the authors that Dejerine quotes repeatedly, it becomes possible to recreate his professional network, to review the works of these authors and to determine how they cross-reference each other. Thirdly, these textbooks contain numerous medical illustrations, which are linked with the concept of "proof;" the authors demonstrate a willingness to "show" the lesion or the pathology by publishing an image. Drawings, schematic representations, radiographies, or photographs of patients or of anatomical preparations all have their own purpose in describing the lesion and the progression of the disease. They assist in the diagnosis of the pathology. By looking at all of these aspects, it is therefore possible to conclude that a neurological textbook is a dynamic object that evolves through re-editions, comments and references found in other textbooks and by the circulations of parts of these books, such as the images. The illustrations also carry the author's authority, since their ongoing use claims that the work by the owner of the image has been endorsed by others. At the same time, it validates the borrowers' arguments. By using medical illustrations from different authors worldwide, the authors are also making a claim to a common language, to a similar way of examining patients, and about how much they depend on medical imagery to prove their points. In that sense, by focusing upon these textbooks, one can affirm that neurology already existed as a worldwide specialty at the turn of the twentieth century. Much more than mere accompaniments to the text, images were of paramount importance to the unification of neurology.

Causality

Making correct causal claims is important for research and practice. This article explains what causality is, and how it can be established via experimental design. Because experiments are infeasible in many applied settings, researchers often use "observational" methods to estimate causal models. In these situations, it is likely that model estimates are compromised by endogeneity. The article discusses the conditions that engender endogeneity and methods that can eliminate it.

The genomics of micronutrient requirements.

Healthy nutrition is accepted as a cornerstone of public health strategies for reducing the risk of noncommunicable conditions such as obesity, cardiovascular disease, and related morbidities. However, many research studies continue to focus on single or at most a few factors that may elicit a metabolic effect. These reductionist approaches resulted in: (1) exaggerated claims for nutrition as a cure or prevention of disease; (2) the wide use of empirically based dietary regimens, as if one fits all; and (3) frequent disappointment of consumers, patients, and healthcare providers about the real impact nutrition can make on medicine and health. Multiple factors including environment, host and microbiome genetics, social context, the chemical form of the nutrient, its (bio)availability, and chemical and metabolic interactions among nutrients all interact to result in nutrient requirement and in health outcomes. Advances in laboratory methodologies, especially in analytical and separation techniques, are making the chemical dissection of foods and their availability in physiological tissues possible in an unprecedented manner. These omics technologies have opened opportunities for extending knowledge of micronutrients and of their metabolic and endocrine roles. While these technologies are crucial, more holistic approaches to the analysis of physiology and environment, novel experimental designs, and more sophisticated computational methods are needed to advance our understanding of how nutrition influences health of individuals.

Forest Transition in Madagascar's Highlands: Initial Evidence and Implications

Madagascar is renowned for the loss of the forested habitat of lemurs and other species endemic to the island. Less well known is that in the highlands, a region often described as an environmental "basket-case" of fire-degraded, eroded grasslands, woody cover has been increasing for decades. Using information derived from publically available high- and medium-resolution satellites, this study characterizes tree cover dynamics in the highlands of Madagascar over the past two decades. Our results reveal heterogeneous patterns of increased tree cover on smallholder farms and village lands, spurred by a mix of endogenous and exogenous forces. The new trees play important roles in rural livelihoods, providing renewable supplies of firewood, charcoal, timber and other products and services, as well as defensible claims to land tenure in the context of a decline in the use of hillside commons for grazing. This study documents this nascent forest transition through Land Change Science techniques, and provides a prologue to political ecological analysis by setting these changes in their social and environmental context and interrogating the costs and benefits of the shift in rural livelihood strategies.