212 resultados para Box-Jenkins method


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Today's approach to anti-doping is mostly centered on the judicial process, despite pursuing a further goal in the detection, reduction, solving and/or prevention of doping. Similarly to decision-making in the area of law enforcement feeding on Forensic Intelligence, anti-doping might significantly benefit from a more extensive gathering of knowledge. Forensic Intelligence might bring a broader logical dimension to the interpretation of data on doping activities for a more future-oriented and comprehensive approach instead of the traditional case-based and reactive process. Information coming from a variety of sources related to doping, whether directly or potentially, would feed an organized memory to provide real time intelligence on the size, seriousness and evolution of the phenomenon. Due to the complexity of doping, integrating analytical chemical results and longitudinal monitoring of biomarkers with physiological, epidemiological, sociological or circumstantial information might provide a logical framework enabling fit for purpose decision-making. Therefore, Anti-Doping Intelligence might prove efficient at providing a more proactive response to any potential or emerging doping phenomenon or to address existing problems with innovative actions or/and policies. This approach might prove useful to detect, neutralize, disrupt and/or prevent organized doping or the trafficking of doping agents, as well as helping to refine the targeting of athletes or teams. In addition, such an intelligence-led methodology would serve to address doping offenses in the absence of adverse analytical chemical evidence.

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We studied the response to F+0 renography and the relative and absolute individual kidney function in neonates and < 6-mo-old infants before and after surgery for unilateral ureteropelvic junction obstruction (UJO). METHODS: The results obtained at diagnosis and after pyeloplasty for 9 children (8 boys, 1 girl; age range, 0.8-5.9 mo; mean age +/- SD, 2.4 +/- 1.5 mo) with proven unilateral UJO (i.e., affected kidney [AK]) and an unremarkable contralateral kidney (i.e., normal kidney [NK]) were evaluated and compared with a control group of 10 children (6 boys, 4 girls; age range, 0.8-2.8 mo; mean age, 1.5 +/- 0.7 mo) selected because of symmetric renal function, absence of vesicoureteral reflux or infection, and an initially dilated but not obstructed renal pelvis as proven by follow-up. Renography was performed for 20 min after injection of (123)I-hippuran (OIH) (0.5-1.0 MBq/kg) immediately followed by furosemide (1 mg/kg). The relative and absolute renal functions and the response to furosemide were measured on background-subtracted and depth-corrected renograms. The response to furosemide was quantified by an elimination index (EI), defined as the ratio of the 3- to 20-min activities: An EI > or = 3 was considered definitively normal and an EI < or = 1 definitively abnormal. If EI was equivocal (1 < EI < 3), the response to gravity-assisted drainage was used to differentiate AKs from NKs. Absolute separate renal function was measured by an accumulation index (AI), defined as the percentage of (123)I-OIH (%ID) extracted by the kidney 30-90 s after maximal cardiac activity. RESULTS: All AKs had definitively abnormal EIs at diagnosis (mean, 0.56 +/- 0.12) and were significantly lower than the EIs of the NKs (mean, 3.24 +/- 1.88) and of the 20 control kidneys (mean, 3.81 +/- 1.97; P < 0.001). The EIs of the AKs significantly improved (mean, 2.81 +/- 0.64; P < 0.05) after pyeloplasty. At diagnosis, the AIs of the AKs were significantly lower (mean, 6.31 +/- 2.33 %ID) than the AIs of the NKs (mean, 9.43 +/- 1.12 %ID) and of the control kidneys (mean, 9.05 +/- 1.17 %ID; P < 0.05). The AIs of the AKs increased at follow-up (mean, 7.81 +/- 2.23 %ID) but remained lower than those of the NKs (mean, 10.75 +/- 1.35 %ID; P < 0.05). CONCLUSION: In neonates and infants younger than 6 mo, (123)I-OIH renography with early furosemide injection (F+0) allowed us to reliably diagnose AKs and to determine if parenchymal function was normal or impaired and if it improved after surgery.

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The integration of geophysical data into the subsurface characterization problem has been shown in many cases to significantly improve hydrological knowledge by providing information at spatial scales and locations that is unattainable using conventional hydrological measurement techniques. The investigation of exactly how much benefit can be brought by geophysical data in terms of its effect on hydrological predictions, however, has received considerably less attention in the literature. Here, we examine the potential hydrological benefits brought by a recently introduced simulated annealing (SA) conditional stochastic simulation method designed for the assimilation of diverse hydrogeophysical data sets. We consider the specific case of integrating crosshole ground-penetrating radar (GPR) and borehole porosity log data to characterize the porosity distribution in saturated heterogeneous aquifers. In many cases, porosity is linked to hydraulic conductivity and thus to flow and transport behavior. To perform our evaluation, we first generate a number of synthetic porosity fields exhibiting varying degrees of spatial continuity and structural complexity. Next, we simulate the collection of crosshole GPR data between several boreholes in these fields, and the collection of porosity log data at the borehole locations. The inverted GPR data, together with the porosity logs, are then used to reconstruct the porosity field using the SA-based method, along with a number of other more elementary approaches. Assuming that the grid-cell-scale relationship between porosity and hydraulic conductivity is unique and known, the porosity realizations are then used in groundwater flow and contaminant transport simulations to assess the benefits and limitations of the different approaches.

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The aim of our study was to provide an innovative headspace-gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (HS-GC-MS) method applicable for the routine determination of blood CO concentration in forensic toxicology laboratories. The main drawback of the GC/MS methods discussed in literature for CO measurement is the absence of a specific CO internal standard necessary for performing quantification. Even if stable isotope of CO is commercially available in the gaseous state, it is essential to develop a safer method to limit the manipulation of gaseous CO and to precisely control the injected amount of CO for spiking and calibration. To avoid the manipulation of a stable isotope-labeled gas, we have chosen to generate in a vial in situ, an internal labeled standard gas ((13)CO) formed by the reaction of labeled formic acid formic acid (H(13)COOH) with sulfuric acid. As sulfuric acid can also be employed to liberate the CO reagent from whole blood, the procedure allows for the liberation of CO simultaneously with the generation of (13)CO. This method allows for precise measurement of blood CO concentrations from a small amount of blood (10 μL). Finally, this method was applied to measure the CO concentration of intoxicated human blood samples from autopsies.

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Stepwise radiofrequency catheter ablation (step-CA) has become the treatment of choice for the restoration of sinus rhythm (SR) in patients with long-standing persistent atrial fibrillation (pers-AF). Its success rate appears limited as the amount of ablation to achieve long term SR is unknown. Multiple organization indexes (OIs) have been previously developed to track the organization of AF during step-CA, however, with limited success. We report an adaptive method for tracking AF termination (AF-term) based on OIs characterizing the relationship between harmonic components of atrial activity from the surface ECG of AF activity. By computing their relative evolution during the last two steps preceding AF-term, we found that the performance of our OIs was superior to classical indices to track the efficiency of step-CA "en route" to AF-term. Our preliminary results suggest that the gradual synchronization between the fundamental and its first harmonic of AF activity appears as a promising parameter for predicting AF-term during step-CA.

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We evaluated whether preeclampsia is associated with elevated circulating levels of High mobility group box 1 protein (HMGB-1), a nuclear protein with proinflammatory effects when released extracellularly. We enrolled 48 women, 32 in third trimester pregnancy (16 with, 16 without preeclampsia), and 16 healthy non pregnant. In the peripheral blood of pregnant women, HMGB-1 concentration was assessed serially, before and after delivery. With or without preeclampsia, third trimester pregnancy was associated with elevated levels of HMGB-1. This elevation is exaggerated in preeclampsia. The source of HMGB-1 observed in these conditions is likely to involve tissues other than the placenta itself.

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The aims of this study were to assess whether high-mobility group box-1 protein can be determined in biological fluids collected during autopsy and evaluate the diagnostic potential of high-mobility group box-1 protein in identifying sepsis-related deaths. High-mobility group box-1 protein was measured in serum collected during hospitalization as well as in undiluted and diluted postmortem serum and pericardial fluid collected during autopsy in a group of sepsis-related deaths and control cases with noninfectious causes of death. Inclusion criteria consisted of full biological sample availability and postmortem interval not exceeding 6h. The preliminary results indicate that high-mobility group box-1 protein levels markedly increase after death. Concentrations beyond the upper limit of the calibration curve were obtained in undiluted postmortem serum in septic and traumatic control cases. In pericardial fluid, concentrations beyond the upper limit of the calibration curve were found in all cases. These findings suggest that the diagnostic potential of high-mobility group box-1 protein in the postmortem setting is extremely limited due to molecule release into the bloodstream after death, rendering antemortem levels difficult or impossible to estimate even after sample dilution.

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Introduction: Ethylglucuronide (EtG) is a direct and specific metabolite of ethanol. Its determination in hair is of increasing interest for detecting and monitoring alcohol abuse. The quantification of EtG in hair requires analytical methods showing highest sensitivity and specificity. We present a fully validated method based on gas chromatography-negative chemical ionization tandem mass spectrometry (GC-NCI-MS/MS). The method was validated using French Society of Pharmaceutical Sciences and Techniques (SFSTP) guidelines which are based on the determination of the total measurement error and accuracy profiles. Methods: Washed and powdered hair is extracted in water using an ultrasonic incubation. After purification by Oasis MAX solid phase extraction, the derivatized EtG is detected and quantified by GC-NCI-MS/MS method in the selected reaction monitoring mode. The transitions m/z 347 / 163 and m/z 347 / 119 were used for the quantification and identification of EtG. Four quality controls (QC) prepared with hair samples taken post mortem from 2 subjects with a known history of alcoholism were used. A proficiency test with 7 participating laboratories was first run to validate the EtG concentration of each QC sample. Considering the results of this test, these samples were then used as internal controls for validation of the method. Results: The mean EtG concentrations measured in the 4 QC were 259.4, 130.4, 40.8, and 8.4 pg/mg hair. Method validation has shown linearity between 8.4 and 259.4 pg/mg hair (r2 > 0.999). The lower limit of quantification was set up at 8.4 pg/mg. Repeatability and intermediate precision were found less than 13.2% for all concentrations tested. Conclusion: The method proved to be suitable for routine analysis of EtG in hair. GC-NCI-MS/MS method was then successfully applied to the analysis of EtG in hair samples collected from different alcohol consumers.

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RATIONALE AND OBJECTIVE:. The information assessment method (IAM) permits health professionals to systematically document the relevance, cognitive impact, use and health outcomes of information objects delivered by or retrieved from electronic knowledge resources. The companion review paper (Part 1) critically examined the literature, and proposed a 'Push-Pull-Acquisition-Cognition-Application' evaluation framework, which is operationalized by IAM. The purpose of the present paper (Part 2) is to examine the content validity of the IAM cognitive checklist when linked to email alerts. METHODS: A qualitative component of a mixed methods study was conducted with 46 doctors reading and rating research-based synopses sent on email. The unit of analysis was a doctor's explanation of a rating of one item regarding one synopsis. Interviews with participants provided 253 units that were analysed to assess concordance with item definitions. RESULTS AND CONCLUSION: The content relevance of seven items was supported. For three items, revisions were needed. Interviews suggested one new item. This study has yielded a 2008 version of IAM.

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Background:¦Hirschsprung's disease (HSCR) is a congenital malformation of the enteric nervous system due to the¦arrest of migration of neural crest cells to form the myenteric and submucosal plexuses. It leads to an anganglionic intestinal segment, which is permanently contracted causing intestinal obstruction. Its incidence is approximately 1/5000 birth, and males are more frequently affected with a male/female ratio of 4/1. The diagnosis is in most cases made within the first year of life. The rectal biopsy of the mucosa and sub-mucosa is the diagnostic gold standard.¦Purpose:¦The aim of this study was to compare two surgical approaches for HSCR, the Duhamel technique and the transanal endorectal pull-through (TEPT) in term of indications, duration of surgery, duration of hospital stay, postoperative treatment, complications, frequency of enterocolitis and functional outcomes.¦Methods:¦Fifty-nine patients were treated for HSCR by one of the two methods in our department of pediatric¦surgery between 1994 and 2010. These patients were separated into two groups (I: Duhamel, II: TEPT), which were compared on the basis of medical records. Statistics were made to compare the two groups (ANOVA test). The first group includes 43 patients and the second 16 patients. It is noteworthy that twenty-four patients (about 41% of all¦patients) were referred from abroad (Western Africa). Continence was evaluated with the Krickenbeck's score.¦Results:¦Statistically, this study showed that operation duration, hospital stay, postoperative fasting and duration of postoperative antibiotics were significantly shorter (p value < 0.05) in group II (TEPT). But age at operation and length of aganglionic segment showed no significant difference between the two groups. The continence follow-up showed generally good results (Krickenbeck's scores 1; 2.1; 3.1) in both groups with a slight tendency to constipation in group I and soiling in group II.¦Conclusion:¦We found two indications for the Duhamel method that are being referred from a country without¦careful postoperative surveillance and/or having a previous colostomy. Even if the Duhamel technique tends to be replaced by the TEPT, it remains the best operative approach for some selected patients. TEPT has also proved some advantages but must be followed carefully because, among other points, of the postoperative dilatations. Our postoperative standards, like digital rectal examination and anal dilatations seem to reduce the occurrence of complications like rectal spur and anal/anastomosis stenosis, respectively in the Duhamel method and the TEPT technique.

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BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: In bladder cancer, conventional white light endoscopic examination of the bladder does not provide adequate information about the presence of "flat" urothelial lesions such as carcinoma in situ. In the present investigation, we examine a new technique for the photodetection of such lesions by the imaging of protoporphyrin IX (PpIX) fluorescence following topical application of 5-aminolevulinic acid (ALA). STUDY DESIGN/MATERIALS AND METHODS: Several hours after bladder instillation of an aqueous solution of ALA in 34 patients, a Krypton ion laser or a filtered Xenon arc-lamp was used to excite PpIX fluorescence. Tissue samples for histological analysis were taken while observing the bladder wall either by means of a video camera, or by direct endoscopic observation. RESULTS: A good correlation was found between the PpIX fluorescence and the histopathological diagnosis. On a total of 215 biopsies, 143 in fluorescent and 72 in nonfluorescent areas, all visible tumors on white light cytoscopy appeared in a bright red fluorescence with the photodetection technique. In addition, this method permitted to discover 47 unsuspected carcinomatous lesions on white light observation, among which 40% were carcinoma in situ. CONCLUSION: PpIX fluorescence induced by instillation into the bladder of 5-ALA is an efficient method of mapping the mucosa in bladder carcinoma.

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Complex multimorbid patients are now more common in ambulatory care and the management of their medication more frequently needs interprofessional collaboration. This qualitative study explored health professional's main challenges when introducing, preparing and sharing the use of a pill box for a patient. Another objective of this study was to explore options for improving care in these situations.

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In the forensic examination of DNA mixtures, the question of how to set the total number of contributors (N) presents a topic of ongoing interest. Part of the discussion gravitates around issues of bias, in particular when assessments of the number of contributors are not made prior to considering the genotypic configuration of potential donors. Further complication may stem from the observation that, in some cases, there may be numbers of contributors that are incompatible with the set of alleles seen in the profile of a mixed crime stain, given the genotype of a potential contributor. In such situations, procedures that take a single and fixed number contributors as their output can lead to inferential impasses. Assessing the number of contributors within a probabilistic framework can help avoiding such complication. Using elements of decision theory, this paper analyses two strategies for inference on the number of contributors. One procedure is deterministic and focuses on the minimum number of contributors required to 'explain' an observed set of alleles. The other procedure is probabilistic using Bayes' theorem and provides a probability distribution for a set of numbers of contributors, based on the set of observed alleles as well as their respective rates of occurrence. The discussion concentrates on mixed stains of varying quality (i.e., different numbers of loci for which genotyping information is available). A so-called qualitative interpretation is pursued since quantitative information such as peak area and height data are not taken into account. The competing procedures are compared using a standard scoring rule that penalizes the degree of divergence between a given agreed value for N, that is the number of contributors, and the actual value taken by N. Using only modest assumptions and a discussion with reference to a casework example, this paper reports on analyses using simulation techniques and graphical models (i.e., Bayesian networks) to point out that setting the number of contributors to a mixed crime stain in probabilistic terms is, for the conditions assumed in this study, preferable to a decision policy that uses categoric assumptions about N.

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BACKGROUND: Straylight gives the appearance of a veil of light thrown over a person's retinal image when there is a strong light source present. We examined the reproducibility of the measurements by C-Quant, and assessed its correlation to characteristics of the eye and subjects' age. PARTICIPANTS AND METHODS: Five repeated straylight measurements were taken using the dominant eye of 45 healthy subjects (age 21-59) with a BCVA of 20/20: 14 emmetropic, 16 myopic, eight hyperopic and seven with astigmatism. We assessed the extent of reproducibility of straylight measures using the intraclass correlation coefficient. RESULTS: The mean straylight value of all measurements was 1.01 (SD 0.23, median 0.97, interquartile range 0.85-1.1). Per 10 years of age, straylight increased in average by 0.10 (95%CI 0.04 to 0.16, p < 0.01]. We found no independent association of refraction (range -5.25 dpt to +2 dpt) on straylight values (0.001; 95%CI -0.022 to 0.024, p = 0.92). Compared to emmetropic subjects, myopia reduced straylight (-.011; -0.024 to 0.02, p = 0.11), whereas higher straylight values (0.09; -0.01 to 0.20, p = 0.09) were observed in subjects with blue irises as compared to dark-colored irises when correcting for age. The intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) of repeated measurements was 0.83 (95%CI 0.76 to 0.90). CONCLUSIONS: Our study showed that straylight measurements with the C-Quant had a high reproducibility, i.e. a lack of large intra-observer variability, making it appropriate to be applied in long-term follow-up studies assessing the long-term effect of surgical procedures on the quality of vision.

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Two candidate genes for controlling thymocyte differentiation, T-cell factor-1 (Tcf-1) and lymphoid enhancer-binding factor (Lef-1), encode closely related DNA-binding HMG-box proteins. Their expression pattern is complex and largely overlapping during embryogenesis, yet restricted to lymphocytes postnatally. Here we generate two independent germline mutations in Tcf-1 and find that thymocyte development in (otherwise normal) mutant mice is blocked at the transition from the CD8+, immature single-positive to the CD4+/CD8+ double-positive stage. In contrast to wild-type mice, most of the immature single-positive cells in the mutants are not in the cell cycle and the number of immunocompetent T cells in peripheral lymphoid organs is reduced. We conclude that Tcf-1 controls an essential step in thymocyte differentiation.