486 resultados para Bayesian diagnostic measure


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Rapidly progressive glomerulonephritis (RPG) is a rare clinical syndrome characterized by kidney damage that can lead to irreversible kidney failure. RPG can be caused by primary glomerular disease or can be part of a systemic autoimmune disorder. All RPG have a similar pathophysiology (proliferation of cells in Bowman's capsule and formation of crescents) and clinical evolution (rapidly progressive kidney failure with proteinuria and an active urine sediment). Immunosuppressive therapy and sometimes plasma exchanges are required. Overall- and kidney survival are closely linked to the blood creatinine level at presentation, the percentage of damaged glomeruli, and to the underlying cause. RPG is therefore a diagnostic and therapeutic emergency that needs quick referral to a nephrologist.

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A wide variation in patient exposure has been observed in interventional radiology and cardiology. The purpose of this study was to investigate the patient dose from fluoroscopy-guided procedures performed in non-academic centres when compared with academic centres. Four procedures (coronary angiography, percutaneous coronary intervention, angiography of the lower limbs and percutaneous transluminal angioplasty of the lower limbs) were evaluated. Data on the dose-area product, fluoroscopy time and number of images for 1000 procedures were obtained from 23 non-academic centres and compared with data from 5 academic centres. No differences were found for cardiology procedures performed in non-academic centres versus academic ones. However, significantly lower doses were delivered to patients for procedures of the lower limbs when they were performed in non-academic centres. This may be due to more complex procedures performed in the academic centres. Comparison between the centres showed a great variation in the patient dose for these lower limb procedures.

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Summary (in English) Computer simulations provide a practical way to address scientific questions that would be otherwise intractable. In evolutionary biology, and in population genetics in particular, the investigation of evolutionary processes frequently involves the implementation of complex models, making simulations a particularly valuable tool in the area. In this thesis work, I explored three questions involving the geographical range expansion of populations, taking advantage of spatially explicit simulations coupled with approximate Bayesian computation. First, the neutral evolutionary history of the human spread around the world was investigated, leading to a surprisingly simple model: A straightforward diffusion process of migrations from east Africa throughout a world map with homogeneous landmasses replicated to very large extent the complex patterns observed in real human populations, suggesting a more continuous (as opposed to structured) view of the distribution of modern human genetic diversity, which may play a better role as a base model for further studies. Second, the postglacial evolution of the European barn owl, with the formation of a remarkable coat-color cline, was inspected with two rounds of simulations: (i) determine the demographic background history and (ii) test the probability of a phenotypic cline, like the one observed in the natural populations, to appear without natural selection. We verified that the modern barn owl population originated from a single Iberian refugium and that they formed their color cline, not due to neutral evolution, but with the necessary participation of selection. The third and last part of this thesis refers to a simulation-only study inspired by the barn owl case above. In this chapter, we showed that selection is, indeed, effective during range expansions and that it leaves a distinguished signature, which can then be used to detect and measure natural selection in range-expanding populations. Résumé (en français) Les simulations fournissent un moyen pratique pour répondre à des questions scientifiques qui seraient inabordable autrement. En génétique des populations, l'étude des processus évolutifs implique souvent la mise en oeuvre de modèles complexes, et les simulations sont un outil particulièrement précieux dans ce domaine. Dans cette thèse, j'ai exploré trois questions en utilisant des simulations spatialement explicites dans un cadre de calculs Bayésiens approximés (approximate Bayesian computation : ABC). Tout d'abord, l'histoire de la colonisation humaine mondiale et de l'évolution de parties neutres du génome a été étudiée grâce à un modèle étonnement simple. Un processus de diffusion des migrants de l'Afrique orientale à travers un monde avec des masses terrestres homogènes a reproduit, dans une très large mesure, les signatures génétiques complexes observées dans les populations humaines réelles. Un tel modèle continu (opposé à un modèle structuré en populations) pourrait être très utile comme modèle de base dans l'étude de génétique humaine à l'avenir. Deuxièmement, l'évolution postglaciaire d'un gradient de couleur chez l'Effraie des clocher (Tyto alba) Européenne, a été examiné avec deux séries de simulations pour : (i) déterminer l'histoire démographique de base et (ii) tester la probabilité qu'un gradient phénotypique, tel qu'observé dans les populations naturelles puisse apparaître sans sélection naturelle. Nous avons montré que la population actuelle des chouettes est sortie d'un unique refuge ibérique et que le gradient de couleur ne peux pas s'être formé de manière neutre (sans l'action de la sélection naturelle). La troisième partie de cette thèse se réfère à une étude par simulations inspirée par l'étude de l'Effraie. Dans ce dernier chapitre, nous avons montré que la sélection est, en effet, aussi efficace dans les cas d'expansion d'aire de distribution et qu'elle laisse une signature unique, qui peut être utilisée pour la détecter et estimer sa force.

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Objectives: To determine characteristics of older patients referred to a geriatric outpatient clinic; 2) to determine the prevalence of geriatric syndromes in this population; 3) to identify main recommendations made to referring primary care physicians. Design: Cross-sectional analysis Setting: Outpatient clinic of the service of geriatric medicine at the University of Lausanne Medical Center, Lausanne, Switzerland. Participants: Community-dwelling patients aged 65 and over referred to the clinic. Measurements: Demographics, social, functional and health status data, main diagnoses identified and recommendations made for primary care physicians were collected prospectively. Results: Subjects (N=206, mean age 79.7±7.6 years, 57.3% women, 48.5% living alone, 36.9% receiving formal home care) were referred by primary care physicians (76%), hospitalists (18%), or family members (7%). Main reasons for referral were request for comprehensive assessment, cognitive evaluation, and mobility assessment (45.2%, 26.2%, and 15.5%, respectively). 21.4% of patients are independent in Lawton's Instrumental ADL and 47.1% are independent in Katz's Basic ADL, and 57.3% of patients reported having fallen once or more over the last year. Overall, 76.2% of patients had gait and balance impairment, 72.8% cognitive impairment, 57.3% polypharmacy (≥6 drugs; median 6.5±3.9, IQR 4-8), 54.4% affective disorder, 48.3% osteoporosis, 45.1% urinary incontinence and 33.8% orthostatic hypotension. Polymorbidity (≥6 geriatric syndromes) was present in 58.3% of referred patients. On average, patients received 10.6±4.0 recommendations, including fall prevention interventions (85.2 % of patients: walking aid adaptation in 48.1%, vitamin D prescription in 59.7%, home hazards assessment in 59.2%, and exercise prescription in 53.4%), referral to a memory clinic (45.6%), and treatment modifications (69.9 % of all patients and 81.6% of patients with polypharmacy, mostly psychotropic drugs discontinuation). Conclusions: Polymorbidity was frequent in these older outpatients, with polypharmacy, mobility and cognitive impairments being most prevalent. Outpatient geriatric consultation is a good opportunity to identify geriatric syndromes and propose interventions to prevent or delay functional decline.

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We recently reported on the deficiency of carbohydrate sulfotransferase 3 (CHST3; chondroitin-6-sulfotransferase) in six subjects diagnosed with recessive Larsen syndrome or humero-spinal dysostosis [Hermanns et al. (2008); Am J Hum Genet 82:1368-1374]. Since then, we have identified 17 additional families with CHST3 mutations and we report here on a series of 24 patients in 23 families. The diagnostic hypothesis prior to molecular analysis had been: Larsen syndrome (15 families), humero-spinal dysostosis (four cases), chondrodysplasia with multiple dislocations (CDMD "Megarbane type"; two cases), Desbuquois syndrome (one case), and spondylo-epiphyseal dysplasia (one case). In spite of the different diagnostic labels, the clinical features in these patients were similar and included dislocation of the knees and/or hips at birth, clubfoot, elbow joint dysplasia with subluxation and limited extension, short stature, and progressive kyphosis developing in late childhood. The most useful radiographic clues were the changes of the lumbar vertebrae. Twenty-four different CHST3 mutations were identified; 16 patients had homozygous mutations. We conclude that CHST3 deficiency presents at birth with congenital dislocations of knees, hips, and elbows, and is often diagnosed initially as Larsen syndrome, humero-spinal dysostosis, or chondrodysplasia with dislocations. The incidence of CHST3 deficiency seems to be higher than assumed so far. The clinical and radiographic pattern (joint dislocations, vertebral changes, normal carpal age, lack of facial flattening, and recessive inheritance) is characteristic and distinguishes CHST3 deficiency from other disorders with congenital dislocations such as filamin B-associated dominant Larsen syndrome and Desbuquois syndrome.

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The müllerian anomalies or congenital uterine anomalies are relatively frequent if we keep in mind that 3-4% of our female patients present with a müllerian anomaly, although many among them are asymptomatic. It is important to evoke this diagnosis for all patients with a history of recurrent miscarriage, late abortion and premature delivery, for the adolescent consulting for primary amenorrhea, dysmenorrhea or dyspareunia as well as for the woman consulting for infertility. We will review pathogenesis, diagnostic methods, standard classification with a description of the different types of congenital uterine anomalies and the recommended management.

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Significant progress has been made with regard to the quantitative integration of geophysical and hydrological data at the local scale. However, extending the corresponding approaches to the scale of a field site represents a major, and as-of-yet largely unresolved, challenge. To address this problem, we have developed downscaling procedure based on a non-linear Bayesian sequential simulation approach. The main objective of this algorithm is to estimate the value of the sparsely sampled hydraulic conductivity at non-sampled locations based on its relation to the electrical conductivity logged at collocated wells and surface resistivity measurements, which are available throughout the studied site. The in situ relationship between the hydraulic and electrical conductivities is described through a non-parametric multivariatekernel density function. Then a stochastic integration of low-resolution, large-scale electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) data in combination with high-resolution, local-scale downhole measurements of the hydraulic and electrical conductivities is applied. The overall viability of this downscaling approach is tested and validated by comparing flow and transport simulation through the original and the upscaled hydraulic conductivity fields. Our results indicate that the proposed procedure allows obtaining remarkably faithful estimates of the regional-scale hydraulic conductivity structure and correspondingly reliable predictions of the transport characteristics over relatively long distances.

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Studies in adults have shown that late gadolinium enhanced cardiac magnetic resonance is a safe and noninvasive diagnostic tool which allows one to differentiate myocardial infarction from myocarditis. We believe that it may also be highly useful in the paediatric population for the same purpose.

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Rapid diagnostic tests (RDT) are sometimes recommended to improve the home-based management of malaria. The accuracy of an RDT for the detection of clinical malaria and the presence of malarial parasites has recently been evaluated in a high-transmission area of southern Mali. During the same study, the cost-effectiveness of a 'test-and-treat' strategy for the home-based management of malaria (based on an artemisinin-combination therapy) was compared with that of a 'treat-all' strategy. Overall, 301 patients, of all ages, each of whom had been considered a presumptive case of uncomplicated malaria by a village healthworker, were checked with a commercial RDT (Paracheck-Pf). The sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values of this test, compared with the results of microscopy and two different definitions of clinical malaria, were then determined. The RDT was found to be 82.9% sensitive (with a 95% confidence interval of 78.0%-87.1%) and 78.9% (63.9%-89.7%) specific compared with the detection of parasites by microscopy. In the detection of clinical malaria, it was 95.2% (91.3%-97.6%) sensitive and 57.4% (48.2%-66.2%) specific compared with a general practitioner's diagnosis of the disease, and 100.0% (94.5%-100.0%) sensitive but only 30.2% (24.8%-36.2%) specific when compared against the fulfillment of the World Health Organization's (2003) research criteria for uncomplicated malaria. Among children aged 0-5 years, the cost of the 'test-and-treat' strategy, per episode, was about twice that of the 'treat-all' (U.S.$1.0. v. U.S.$0.5). In older subjects, however, the two strategies were equally costly (approximately U.S.$2/episode). In conclusion, for children aged 0-5 years in a high-transmission area of sub-Saharan Africa, use of the RDT was not cost-effective compared with the presumptive treatment of malaria with an ACT. In older patients, use of the RDT did not reduce costs. The question remains whether either of the strategies investigated can be made affordable for the affected population.

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ABSTRACT: Invasive candidiasis is a frequent life-threatening complication in critically ill patients. Early diagnosis followed by prompt treatment aimed at improving outcome by minimizing unnecessary antifungal use remains a major challenge in the ICU setting. Timely patient selection thus plays a key role for clinically efficient and cost-effective management. Approaches combining clinical risk factors and Candida colonization data have improved our ability to identify such patients early. While the negative predictive value of scores and predicting rules is up to 95 to 99%, the positive predictive value is much lower, ranging between 10 and 60%. Accordingly, if a positive score or rule is used to guide the start of antifungal therapy, many patients may be treated unnecessarily. Candida biomarkers display higher positive predictive values; however, they lack sensitivity and are thus not able to identify all cases of invasive candidiasis. The (1→3)-β-D-glucan (BG) assay, a panfungal antigen test, is recommended as a complementary tool for the diagnosis of invasive mycoses in high-risk hemato-oncological patients. Its role in the more heterogeneous ICU population remains to be defined. More efficient clinical selection strategies combined with performant laboratory tools are needed in order to treat the right patients at the right time by keeping costs of screening and therapy as low as possible. The new approach proposed by Posteraro and colleagues in the previous issue of Critical Care meets these requirements. A single positive BG value in medical patients admitted to the ICU with sepsis and expected to stay for more than 5 days preceded the documentation of candidemia by 1 to 3 days with an unprecedented diagnostic accuracy. Applying this one-point fungal screening on a selected subset of ICU patients with an estimated 15 to 20% risk of developing candidemia is an appealing and potentially cost-effective approach. If confirmed by multicenter investigations, and extended to surgical patients at high risk of invasive candidiasis after abdominal surgery, this Bayesian-based risk stratification approach aimed at maximizing clinical efficiency by minimizing health care resource utilization may substantially simplify the management of critically ill patients at risk of invasive candidiasis.

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Introduction: L'utilisation de marqueurs de l'inflammation comme la CRP pour le diagnostic, le pronostic et le suivi lors de pneumonie acquise dans la communauté (PAC) est une méthode rapide et bon marché. Cependant son utilité reste controversée etles avis d'expert divergent. Au CHUV, la CRP est dosée systématiquement chez les patients hospitalisés avec une PAC. L'objectif de ce travail est double: 1) effectuer une revue systématique de la littérature; 2) mieux comprendre l'usage et la perception de l'utilité clinique de la CRP en analysant la pratique des médecins du CHUV. Méthode: Nous avons envoyé un questionnaire par email à 2 reprises à tous les médecins assistants et chefs de clinique du service de médecine interne (SMI) et du centre interdisciplinaire des urgences (CIU) du CHUV. Les questions portaient sur la pratique clinique et sur la perception de l'utilité de la CRP dans le diagnostic, le pronostic et le suivi de patients hospitalisés pour une PAC. Résultats: Les résultats de la revue systématique sont présentés et analysés en intégrant les réponses issues du questionnaire. Nous avons reçu 53 réponses sur les 125 questionnaires envoyés. 62% des médecins interrogés demandent un dosage de la CRP dans >90% des cas lors d'une suspicion de PAC basée sur la clinique contre 45% si en plus la radiologie parle en faveur d'une PAC. 75% des médecins répètent ce dosage 1 à 4 fois durant le suivi. La raison principale évoquée est la suspicion d'une évolution défavorable et, plus rarement, la présence de comorbidités. Quand on questionne les médecins sur l'utilité de la CRP,on observe que seulement 30% pensent que la CRP est utile pour le diagnostic de PAC et 28% pour exclure une PAC lors de suspicion clinique. De même, 25% des médecins pensent qu'elle est utile dans le suivi des patients et 9% pour évaluer le pronostic de la PAC. On ne trouve pas d'association entre le niveau de formation et l'usage ou l'appréciation de l'utilité de la CRP. Conclusion: Les médecins assistants et les chefs de clinique du SMI et du CIU du CHUV dosent très souvent la CRP chez les patients hospitalisés pour une PAC. Leur motivation n'est ni liée à l'éventuelle valeur diagnostique de cet examen biologique,ni à son hypothétique valeur pour le pronostic et le suivi.

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BACKGROUND: Plasma free and urinary metanephrines are recognized biomarkers for the assessment of pheochromocytoma. Plasma total metanephrines with a long half-life may represent another useful biomarker. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study is to evaluate the diagnostic performances of plasma total metanephrines alone or combined with free metanephrines and fractionated 24-h urinary metanephrines. METHODS: A retrospective, case-control diagnostic test study was conducted between 1999 and 2007 in two university hospitals in Switzerland and two institutions in France. The patients included 46 cases with histologically proven pheochromocytoma, and 181 controls suspected of tumor with negative investigations and 3-year follow-up. None had renal dysfunction. Sensitivity and specificity were compared after expressing each measurement result as a ratio over its upper reference limit, adding the ratios of normetanephrine and metanephrine, and defining cut-off values of 1 or 2 for this sum. RESULTS: Applying a cut-off value of 1, plasma free and total metanephrines and urinary fractionated metanephrines had similar sensitivities of 96% (95% confidence interval, 86-99%), 95% (85-99%), and 95% (84-99%) along with similar specificities of 89% (83-94%), 91% (84-95%), and 86% (80-91%). A cut-off of 2 for the sum of ratios over reference limit improves the specificity, and it can be used for a confirmation test based on another biomarker taken among the three biomarkers. CONCLUSION: All three metanephrine-based tests perform equivalently for diagnosing pheochromocytoma in the absence of renal insufficiency, and can be conveniently associated two by two for confirming/excluding tumor.