Prototype of a web-based participative decision support platform in natural hazards and risk management

This paper presents the current state and development of a prototype web-GIS (Geographic Information System) decision support platform intended for application in natural hazards and risk management, mainly for floods and landslides. This web platform uses open-source geospatial software and technologies, particularly the Boundless (formerly OpenGeo) framework and its client side software development kit (SDK). The main purpose of the platform is to assist the experts and stakeholders in the decision-making process for evaluation and selection of different risk management strategies through an interactive participation approach, integrating web-GIS interface with decision support tool based on a compromise programming approach. The access rights and functionality of the platform are varied depending on the roles and responsibilities of stakeholders in managing the risk. The application of the prototype platform is demonstrated based on an example case study site: Malborghetto Valbruna municipality of North-Eastern Italy where flash floods and landslides are frequent with major events having occurred in 2003. The preliminary feedback collected from the stakeholders in the region is discussed to understand the perspectives of stakeholders on the proposed prototype platform.

Association between parental history and genetic risk scores for coronary heart disease prediction: The population-based CoLaus study.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Parental history (PH) and genetic risk scores (GRSs) are separately associated with coronary heart disease (CHD), but evidence regarding their combined effects is lacking. We aimed to evaluate the joint associations and predictive ability of PH and GRSs for incident CHD. METHODS: Data for 4283 Caucasians were obtained from the population-based CoLaus Study, over median follow-up time of 5.6 years. CHD was defined as incident myocardial infarction, angina, percutaneous coronary revascularization or bypass grafting. Single nucleotide polymorphisms for CHD identified by genome-wide association studies were used to construct unweighted and weighted versions of three GRSs, comprising of 38, 53 and 153 SNPs respectively. RESULTS: PH was associated with higher values of all weighted GRSs. After adjustment for age, sex, smoking, diabetes, systolic blood pressure, low and high density lipoprotein cholesterol, PH was significantly associated with CHD [HR 2.61, 95% CI (1.47-4.66)] and further adjustment for GRSs did not change this estimate. Similarly, one standard deviation change of the weighted 153-SNPs GRS was significantly associated with CHD [HR 1.50, 95% CI (1.26-1.80)] and remained so, after further adjustment for PH. The weighted, 153-SNPs GRS, but not PH, modestly improved discrimination [(C-index improvement, 0.016), p = 0.048] and reclassification [(NRI improvement, 8.6%), p = 0.027] beyond cardiovascular risk factors. After including both the GRS and PH, model performance improved further [(C-index improvement, 0.022), p = 0.006]. CONCLUSION: After adjustment for cardiovascular risk factors, PH and a weighted, polygenic GRS were jointly associated with CHD and provided additive information for coronary events prediction.

Vestibular Schwannoma: The Evolution of Hearing and Tumor Size in Natural Course and after Treatment by LINAC Stereotactic Radiosurgery.

OBJECTIVE: To review the natural course of tumor size and hearing during conservative management of 151 patients with unilateral vestibular schwannoma (VS), and to evaluate the same parameters for the part of the group (n = 84) who were treated by LINAC stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS). METHODS: In prospectively collected data, patients underwent MRI and complete audiovestibular tests at inclusion, during the conservative management period and after SRS. Hearing was graded according to the Gardner-Robertson (GR) scale and tumor size according to Koos. Statistics were performed using Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and multivariate analyses including linear and logistic regression. Specific insight was given to patients with serviceable hearing. RESULTS: During the conservative management period (mean follow-up time: 24 months, range: 6-96), the annual risk of GR class degradation was 6% for GRI and 15% for GR II patients. Hearing loss as an initial symptom was highly predictive of further hearing loss (p = 0.003). Tumor growth reached 25%. For SRS patients, functional hearing preservation was 51% at 1 year and 36% at 3 years. Tumor control was 94 and 91%, respectively. CONCLUSION: In VS patients, hearing loss at the time of diagnosis is a predictor of poorer hearing outcome. LINAC SRS is efficient for tumor control. Patients who preserved their pretreatment hearing presented less hearing loss per year after SRS than before treatment, suggesting a protective effect of SRS when cochlear function can be preserved.

"A Hard Battle to Fight": Natural Theology and the Dismal Science, 1820-1850

William Whewell's and Richard Jones's criticism of Jeremy Bentham's and David Ricardo's "dismal" views on the relation of theory and evidence in political economy was motivated by the former's views on the structuring role of natural theology for questions of method and evidence in the sciences, including political economy. In comparison, natural theology was for Richard Whately as structuring on these issues as it was for the Cambridge men. Whately's view on natural theology, however, conformed with the Ricardian predilection for theory over facts. The differences between the Cambridge men and Whately became manifest after (or better: during) the publication of Jones's book on rent in 1831 and led to a somewhat acerbic exchange of views on the role of definitions in science and the use of history for establishing scientific evidence. As far as political economy was concerned, Whately's stance carried the day in Victorian England.

The natural history of type II odontoid fractures in the elderly population. A retrospective study over a 14 years period.

Odontoid fractures are the most common cervical fractures in the adult population. They represent 9 to 18 % of all cervical fractures and the type II is the most common. The incidence of neurologic deficits (ND) in odontoid fractures varies between 3 to 25%. A recent study showed that patients with ND had a mortality rate increased by 4.72 times and a complication rate higher of 1.18 times. The most common complication in patients with ND was respiratory distress8. Surprisingly, although type II odontoid fractures are frequent cervical fractures, their natural history has been poorly described. Surgery for odontoid fractures is well described. However, there are so far guidelines based on class II and class III evidence only regarding indications for surgery and regarding surgical techniques. The class II guidelines recommend to consider surgical stabilization and fusion for type II odontoid in patients over 50 years of age. The class III recommendations are to first manage non-displaced odontoid type II fracture with external immobilization and that translation of 5mm or more is associated with a high rate of non- union with the conservative treatment and should be treated surgically.

Vestibular schwannoma : the evolution of hearing and tumor size in natural course and after treatment by Linac stereotactic radiosurgery

Objectif : D'analyser l'évolution naturelle de la taille de la tumeur et de l'audition chez 151 patients avec schwannome vestibulaire (VS) en suivi et d'évaluer les mêmes paramètres pour une partie du group traité par Radiochirurgie Stéréotaxique Linac (SRS). Méthodes: Etude prospective des patients bilantés par IRM et tests audio-vestibulaires à l'inclusion, pendant la période du suivi et après SRS. L'audition a été gradé selon l'échelle de Gardner-Robertson (GR) et la taille tumorale selon l'échelle de Koos. L'analyse statistique inclut l'analyse de survie de Kaplan-Meier, analyse multivariée avec régression linéaire et logistique. Les patients avec une audition utile ont étés spécifiquement analysés. Résultats: Pendant la période du suivi (moyenne 24 mois, déviation 6-96), le risqué annuel de dégradation de la classe GR était 6% pour les patients GRI et 15% pour les GRII. La perte auditive comme symptôme initial était un facteur signifïcativement prédictif pour une aggravation auditive ultérieure (p=0.003). La croissance tumorale était de 25% à la dernière observation pendant le suivi. Pour les patients traités par Linac, la préservation d'une audition utile était 51% à 1 an et 36% à 3 ans. Le contrôle tumoral était 94 % and 91% respectivement. Conclusion: Chez les patients avec VS, la perte auditive déjà présente au diagnostique est un facteur prédictif négatif pour l'évolution de l'audition. La Radiochirurgie Stéréotaxique Linac est efficace pour le contrôle tumoral. Les patients ayant préservés leur status auditif prétraitement présentent un rythme annuel de perte auditive diminué après SRS compare à celle-ci avant le traitement. Cette constatation suggère un effet protectif potentiel de la SRS, à condition que la fonction cochléaire soit préservée.