The link between land-use management and fluvial flood risk : a chaotic conception?

There is much policy interest in the possible linkages that might exist between land use and downstream fluvial flood risk. On the one hand, this position is sustained by observations from plot- and field-scale studies that suggest land management does affect runoff. On the other, upscaling these effects to show that land-management activities impact upon flood risk at larger catchment scales has proved to be elusive. This review considers the reasons for why this upscaling is problematic. We argue that, rather than it reflecting methodological challenges associated with the difficulties of modelling hydrological processes over very large areas and during extreme runoff events, it reflects the fact that any linkage between land management and flood risk cannot be generalized and taken out of its specific spatial (catchment) and temporal (flood event) context. We use Sayer's (1992) notion of a `chaotic conception' to describe the belief that there is a simple and general association between land management and downstream flood risk rather than the impacts of land management being spatially and temporally contingent in relation to the particular geographical location, time period and scale being considered. Our argument has important practical consequences because it implies that land-management activities to reduce downstream flood risk will be different to traditional flood-reduction interventions such as levees. The purpose of demonstration projects then needs careful consideration such that conclusions made for one project are not transferred uncritically to other scales of analysis or geographical locations.

M-protein and other intrinsic virulence factors of Streptococcus pyogenes are encoded on an ancient pathogenicity island.

BACKGROUND: The increasing number of completely sequenced bacterial genomes allows comparing their architecture and genetic makeup. Such new information highlights the crucial role of lateral genetic exchanges in bacterial evolution and speciation. RESULTS: Here we analyzed the twelve sequenced genomes of Streptococcus pyogenes by a naïve approach that examines the preferential nucleotide usage along the chromosome, namely the usage of G versus C (GC-skew) and T versus A (TA-skew). The cumulative GC-skew plot presented an inverted V-shape composed of two symmetrical linear segments, where the minimum and maximum corresponded to the origin and terminus of DNA replication. In contrast, the cumulative TA-skew presented a V-shape, which segments were interrupted by several steep slopes regions (SSRs), indicative of a different nucleotide composition bias. Each S. pyogenes genome contained up to nine individual SSRs, encompassing all described strain-specific prophages. In addition, each genome contained a similar unique non-phage SSR, the core of which consisted of 31 highly homologous genes. This core includes the M-protein, other mga-related factors and other virulence genes, totaling ten intrinsic virulence genes. In addition to a high content in virulence-related genes and to a peculiar nucleotide bias, this SSR, which is 47 kb-long in a M1GAS strain, harbors direct repeats and a tRNA gene, suggesting a mobile element. Moreover, its complete absence in a M-protein negative group A Streptococcus natural isolate demonstrates that it could be spontaneously lost, but in vitro deletion experiments indicates that its excision occurred at very low rate. The stability of this SSR, combined to its presence in all sequenced S. pyogenes sequenced genome, suggests that it results from an ancient acquisition. CONCLUSION: Thus, this non-phagic SSR is compatible with a pathogenicity island, acquired before S. pyogenes speciation. Its potential excision might bear relevance for vaccine development, because vaccines targeting M-protein might select for M-protein-negative variants that still carry other virulence determinants.

The Implied Book and the Narrative Text. On a Blind Spot in Narratological Theory - from a Media Studies Perspective

The article is concerned with the formal definition of a largely unnoticed factor in narrative structure. Based on the assumptions that (1) the semantics of a written text depend, among other factors, directly on its visual alignment in space, that (2) the formal structure of a text has to meet that of its spatial presentation and that (3) these assumptions hold true also for narrative texts (which, however, in modern times typically conceal their spatial dimensions by a low-key linear layout), it is argued that, how ever low-key, the expected material shape of a given narrative determines the configuration of its plot by its author. The ,implied book' thus denotes an author's historically assumable, not necessarily conscious idea of how his text, which is still in the process of creation, will be dimensionally presented and under these circumstances visually absorbed. Assuming that an author's knowledge of this later (potentially) substantiated material form influences the composition, the implied book is to be understood as a text-genetically determined, structuring moment of the text. Historically reconstructed, it thus serves the methodical analysis of structural characteristics of a completed text.

Association between growth and blood pressure during the life course in children and adolescents

Background: Little is known on the relative importance of growth at different periods between birth and adolescence on blood pressure (BP). Objective: To assess the association between birth weight, change in body weight (growth) and BP across the entire span of childhood and adolescence. Methods: School-based surveys were conducted annually between 1998 and 2006 among all children in four school grades (kindergarten, 4th, 7th, and 10th year of compulsory school) in the Seychelles, Indian Ocean. Height and weight and BP were measured. Three cohorts of children examined twice were analyzed: 1606 children surveyed at age 5.5 and 9.1, 2557 at age 9.2 and 12.5, and 2065 at age 12.5 and 15.5, respectively. Weights at birth and at one year were extracted from medical files. Weights were expressed as Z-scores and growth was defined as a change in weight Z-scores (corresponding to weight centile crossing). The association between BP (at age 5.5, 9.2, 12.5, and 15.5) and weight at different times was assessed by linear regression. Using results of regression models of BP on all successive weights, life course plots were drawn by plotting regression coefficients against age at which weight was measured. The figure shows a life course plot of systolic BP in boys aged 15.5. Results: Without adjustment for current weight (at the time of BP measurement), birth weight was not associated with current BP, irrespective of age, excepted for girls at age 15.5 for whom a modest positive association was found. When adjusted for current weight, birth weight was negatively and modestly associated with current BP. BP was strongly associated with current weight, irrespective of age. Life course plots showed that BP was strongly associated with growth during the few preceding years but not with growth during earlier years, except for growth during the first year of life which tended to be associated with systolic BP. Conclusions: Our findings suggest that BP during childhood and adolescence is mainly determined by current body weight and recent growth.

Sea-level changes and ammonite faunal turnover during the Lias/Dogger transition in the western Tethys

The aim of this paper was to investigate the possible connections between ammonite faunal turnover and the eustatic events recorded in Tethyan sequences during the middle Toarcian/early Bajocian time interval. For this we have analysed the biostratigraphic ranges, at the subzone level, of approximately 600 ammonite species belonging to 160 genera from several selected sections of the western Tethys (Mediterranean and Submediterranean provinces). The analysis of taxon ranges enabled us to plot curves for ammonite faunal turnovers, inter-subzonal distance, and diversity. Comparing the mentioned curves with Tethyan sequences [Hardenbol et al., 19981, we find that sea-level changes correlate well with origination and extinction events and faunal diversity. Most of the faunal turnovers correlate with stratigraphic events. Extinction events with their corresponding decrease in diversity correlate with regressive intervals and with major or minor sequence boundaries. Origination events and their corresponding increase in diversity were clearly connected with transgressions in Tethyan sequences. In several cases, the major sequence boundary and the subsequent transgressive phase correlate with major ammonite faunal turnover, whereas minor or medium sequence boundaries generally gave rise to minor or medium turnovers.

GRW as an ontology of dispositions

The paper argues that the formulation of quantum mechanics proposed by Ghirardi, Rimini and Weber (GRW) is a serious candidate for being a fundamental physical theory and explores its ontological commitments from this perspective. In particular, we propose to conceive of spatial superpositions of non-massless microsystems as dispositions or powers, more precisely propensities, to generate spontaneous localizations. We set out five reasons for this view, namely that (1) it provides for a clear sense in which quantum systems in entangled states possess properties even in the absence of definite values; (2) it vindicates objective, single-case probabilities; (3) it yields a clear transition from quantum to classical properties; (4) it enables to draw a clear distinction between purely mathematical and physical structures, and (5) it grounds the arrow of time in the time-irreversible manifestation of the propensities to localize.

Flore alpine et réchauffement climatique: observation de trois sommets valaisans à travers le XXe siècle

Alpine flora and climate change: monitoring of three summits in Valais (Switzerland) during the 20th century Climate change might trigger an upward shift of the flora in the Swiss Alps, especially since these experienced higher change in average than observed on a global scale. Previous investigations in the canton des Grisons (Switzerland) and Austria have revealed an increase of floristic diversity on alpine summits since the beginning of the 20th century. Three summits in Valais were revisited in this study: the Gornergrat (first inventory in 1919), the Torrenthorn (about in 1885) and the Beaufort (about in 1920). Every summit was newly inventoried in 2003 in the framework of the PERMANENT.PLOT.CH project. All showed a strong increase in species richness. On the Gornergrat (3135 m), 16 species were not found anymore, but 35 new ones were observed. The number of species on this exceptionally rich summit rose from 102 to 121. In comparison, the floristic richness increased from 24 to 63 species on the Torrenthorn (2924 m) and from 16 to 48 species on the Beaufort (3048 m). As in previous studies, this increase seems likely to be associated with climate change: the new species prefer, in average, higher temperature conditions than those previously prevailing on the summits. On the Gornergrat and Beaufort, our observations reveal a development of alpine meadows, whereas species typical of rocks and raw soils are predominantly colonising the Torrenthorn. This difference might be related to the important damage caused by wanderers on the vegetation of the Torrenthorn.

Early intervention for conversion disorder: neurologists and psychiatrists working together

It has been shown that for the reaction catalyzed by "biodegradative" L-threonine dehydratase from E. coli strains K-12 and 980 in 0.5 M phosphate-carbonate buffer, pH 8.4 and pH 9.5, the plots of initial reaction rate (v) versus the initial substrate concentration ([S]0 are characterized by several inflection points, i. e. an intermediate plateau. The plot of v versus the allosteric activator (AMP) concentration have very complicated shapes: there are several inflection points, and also the maximum at L-threonine concentration equal to 3-10(2) and 5-10(-2) M. High AMP concentrations inhibit the enzyme at high substrate concentrations. The reduced glutathion dose not influence the enzyme and does not alter the activating effect of AMP. On the basis of the data obtained it is proposed that the substrate and AMP shift the equilibrium between multiple oligomeric enzyme forms differing in catalytic activity and kinetic manifestations of allosteric interactions between the active and allosteric AMP-binding sites towards polymerization. Thus, the functioning the enzyme under study is discussed in the frames of the model of dissociating regulatory enzymes with multiple intermediate oligomeric forms.

Cross-scale analysis of the region effect on vascular plant species diversity in southern and northern European mountain ranges.

Background: The divergent glacial histories of southern and northern Europe affect present-day species diversity at coarse-grained scales in these two regions, but do these effects also penetrate to the more fine-grained scales of local communities?Methodology/Principal Findings: We carried out a cross-scale analysis to address this question for vascular plants in two mountain regions, the Alps in southern Europe and the Scandes in northern Europe, using environmentally paired vegetation plots in the two regions (n = 403 in each region) to quantify four diversity components: (i) total number of species occurring in a region (total gamma-diversity), (ii) number of species that could occur in a target plot after environmental filtering (habitat-specific gamma-diversity), (iii) pair-wise species compositional turnover between plots (plot-to-plot beta-diversity) and (iv) number of species present per plot (plot gamma-diversity). We found strong region effects on total gamma-diversity, habitat-specific gamma-diversity and plot-to-plot beta-diversity, with a greater diversity in the Alps even towards distances smaller than 50 m between plots. In contrast, there was a slightly greater plot alpha-diversity in the Scandes, but with a tendency towards contrasting region effects on high and low soil-acidity plots.Conclusions/Significance: We conclude that there are strong regional differences between coarse-grained (landscape- to regional-scale) diversity components of the flora in the Alps and the Scandes mountain ranges,but that these differences do not necessarily penetrate to the finest-grained (plot-scale) diversity component, at least not on acidic soils. Because different processes can lead to a similar pattern, we discuss the consistency of our results with Quaternary history and other divergent features between the two regions such as habitat connectivity, selection for vagility and environmental differences not accounted for in our analyses

Predicting Non Return to Work after Orthopaedic Trauma: The Wallis Occupational Rehabilitation RisK (WORRK) Model.

BACKGROUND: Workers with persistent disabilities after orthopaedic trauma may need occupational rehabilitation. Despite various risk profiles for non-return-to-work (non-RTW), there is no available predictive model. Moreover, injured workers may have various origins (immigrant workers), which may either affect their return to work or their eligibility for research purposes. The aim of this study was to develop and validate a predictive model that estimates the likelihood of non-RTW after occupational rehabilitation using predictors which do not rely on the worker's background. METHODS: Prospective cohort study (3177 participants, native (51%) and immigrant workers (49%)) with two samples: a) Development sample with patients from 2004 to 2007 with Full and Reduced Models, b) External validation of the Reduced Model with patients from 2008 to March 2010. We collected patients' data and biopsychosocial complexity with an observer rated interview (INTERMED). Non-RTW was assessed two years after discharge from the rehabilitation. Discrimination was assessed by the area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) and calibration was evaluated with a calibration plot. The model was reduced with random forests. RESULTS: At 2 years, the non-RTW status was known for 2462 patients (77.5% of the total sample). The prevalence of non-RTW was 50%. The full model (36 items) and the reduced model (19 items) had acceptable discrimination performance (AUC 0.75, 95% CI 0.72 to 0.78 and 0.74, 95% CI 0.71 to 0.76, respectively) and good calibration. For the validation model, the discrimination performance was acceptable (AUC 0.73; 95% CI 0.70 to 0.77) and calibration was also adequate. CONCLUSIONS: Non-RTW may be predicted with a simple model constructed with variables independent of the patient's education and language fluency. This model is useful for all kinds of trauma in order to adjust for case mix and it is applicable to vulnerable populations like immigrant workers.

How do gastroenterologists assess overall activity of eosinophilic esophagitis in adult patients?

OBJECTIVES: There is no "gold standard" for assessing disease activity in patients with eosinophilic esophagitis (EoE). We aimed to compare physicians' judgment of EoE activity with patients' judgment of symptom severity. We also aimed to examine the relative contribution of symptoms as well as endoscopic and histologic findings in shaping physicians' judgment of EoE activity. METHODS: Six gastroenterologists (all EoE experts) assessed EoE-associated symptoms in adult patients. Patients completed a symptom instrument and provided global assessment of EoE symptom severity (PatGA) (Likert scale: 0 (inactive) to 10 (most active)). Following esophagogastroduodenoscopy with biopsy sampling, gastroenterologists provided a global assessment of EoE activity (PhysGA) (Likert scale from 0 to 10) based on patient history and endoscopic and histologic findings. Linear regression and analysis of variance was used to quantify the extent to which variations in severity of EoE symptoms and endoscopic and histologic findings explain variations in PhysGA. RESULTS: A total of 149 EoE patients were prospectively included (71.8% male, median age at inclusion 38 years, 71.8% with concomitant allergies). A moderate positive correlation between PhysGA and PatGA (rho=0.442, P<0.001) was observed and the mean difference in the Bland-Altman plot was 1.77. Variations in severity of endoscopic findings, symptoms, and histologic findings alone explained 53%, 49%, and 30%, of the variability in PhysGA, respectively. Together, these findings explained 75% of variability in PhysGA. CONCLUSIONS: Gastroenterologists rate EoE activity mainly on the basis of endoscopic findings and symptoms and, to a lesser extent, on histologic findings.

Tree cover at fine and coarse spatial grains interacts with shade tolerance to shape plant species distributions across the Alps

The role of competition for light among plants has long been recognized at local scales, but its potential importance for plant species' distribution at larger spatial scales has largely been ignored. Tree cover acts as a modulator of local abiotic conditions, notably by reducing light availability below the canopy and thus the performance of species that are not adapted to low-light conditions. However, this local effect may propagate to coarser spatial grains. Using 6,935 vegetation plots located across the European Alps, we fit Generalized Linear Models (GLM) for the distribution of 960 herbs and shrubs species to assess the effect of tree cover at both plot and landscape grain sizes (~ 10-m and 1-km, respectively). We ran four models with different combinations of variables (climate, soil and tree cover) for each species at both spatial grains. We used partial regressions to evaluate the independent effects of plot- and landscape-scale tree cover on plant communities. Finally, the effects on species' elevational range limits were assessed by simulating a removal experiment comparing the species' distribution under high and low tree cover. Accounting for tree cover improved model performance, with shade-tolerant species increasing their probability of presence at high tree cover whereas shade-intolerant species showed the opposite pattern. The tree cover effect occurred consistently at both plot and landscape spatial grains, albeit strongest at the former. Importantly, tree cover at the two grain sizes had partially independent effects on plot-scale plant communities, suggesting that the effects may be transmitted to coarser grains through meta-community dynamics. At high tree cover, shade-intolerant species exhibited elevational range contractions, especially at their upper limit, whereas shade-tolerant species showed elevational range expansions at both limits. Our findings suggest that the range shifts for herb and shrub species may be modulated by tree cover dynamics.

Germination, senescence and pathogenic attack in soybean (Glycine max. L.): Identification of the cytosolic aconitase participating in the glyoxylate cycle

During our study of the glyoxylate cycle in soybean (Glycine max. L. var. Maple arrow), two mitochondrial and three cytosolic aconitase molecular species (EC 4.2.1.3) were detected, designated as M1, M2, C1, C2 and C3 isoforms, respectively, according to their intracellular locations and electrophoretic mobilities. Using the glyoxylate cycle marker enzymes isocitrate lyase (ICL, EC 4.1.3.1) and malate synthase (MS, EC 4.1.3.2), the activity of this pathway providing the essential link between P-oxidation and gluconeogenesis was confirmed during germination (cotyledons) and senescence (leaves). It was then established that, in both cases, the activity of the CI aconitase isoform developed concomitantly with the transcription and translation levels of the icl and ms genes. This strongly suggests that C1 aconitase is constitutive of the glyoxylate cycle. In addition, the same isoform was found to be active during pathogenic attack as well (hypocotyls). It might be assumed that in such a case the glyoxylate cycle is reinitiated as a part of a carbon reallocation system feeding on the diseased tissue cellular components.

Pathogenic attack and carbon reallocation in soybean leaves (Glycine max. L.): Reinitiation of the glyoxylate cycle as a defence reaction

Pathogenic attack by the fungus Botrytis cinerea (primary pathogen) on soybean leaves (Glycine max. L.; cv. Maple arrow) results in a hypersensitive response (necrotising infected leaves), in the establishment of local acquired resistance, as well as in the systemic induction of genes coding for pathogenesis-related proteins. It now appears that, concomitantly with these already well documented defence reactions, the pathogenic attack also induces the carbon reallocation mechanism based on the reinitiation of the glyoxylate cycle (pseudo-senescence of the infected leaves).