Cluster recognition in spatial-temporal sequences: The case of forest fires

Forest fire sequences can be modelled as a stochastic point process where events are characterized by their spatial locations and occurrence in time. Cluster analysis permits the detection of the space/time pattern distribution of forest fires. These analyses are useful to assist fire-managers in identifying risk areas, implementing preventive measures and conducting strategies for an efficient distribution of the firefighting resources. This paper aims to identify hot spots in forest fire sequences by means of the space-time scan statistics permutation model (STSSP) and a geographical information system (GIS) for data and results visualization. The scan statistical methodology uses a scanning window, which moves across space and time, detecting local excesses of events in specific areas over a certain period of time. Finally, the statistical significance of each cluster is evaluated through Monte Carlo hypothesis testing. The case study is the forest fires registered by the Forest Service in Canton Ticino (Switzerland) from 1969 to 2008. This dataset consists of geo-referenced single events including the location of the ignition points and additional information. The data were aggregated into three sub-periods (considering important preventive legal dispositions) and two main ignition-causes (lightning and anthropogenic causes). Results revealed that forest fire events in Ticino are mainly clustered in the southern region where most of the population is settled. Our analysis uncovered local hot spots arising from extemporaneous arson activities. Results regarding the naturally-caused fires (lightning fires) disclosed two clusters detected in the northern mountainous area.

The renin-angiotensin system and arterial wall behavior.

To assess the behavior of the arterial wall in hypertensive patients, we developed a noninvasive ultrasonic device. Simultaneous recordings of internal diameter and blood pressure over the whole cardiac cycle are used to establish compliance-pressure curves. Blood pressure, which is a co-determinant of compliance, is thus taken into account. This method allows one to compare arteries from patients with different blood pressures. Arterial compliance and distensibility were first investigated in healthy young volunteers administered either lisinopril (20 mg), atenolol (100 mg) or nitrendipine (20 mg) once a day. After 8 days of treatment, only lisinopril was found to increase arterial compliance. Subsequently, we compared arterial diameter- and distensibility-pressure curves from newly diagnosed and untreated hypertensive patients with those of matched normotensive control patients. Diameter-pressure curves did not differ significantly between the groups and distensibility was not reduced. Similar findings were later obtained in an animal model, when mechanical properties of carotid arteries were compared between spontaneously hypertensive rats and normotensive counterparts (Wistar-Kyoto rats). These results, although interesting by providing noninvasive information on the elastic response of the wall, call for further development of the technique to be able to measure arterial wall thickness. Stress-strain relationship could ultimately be established to thoroughly characterize physical properties of blood vessel walls.

Enquête sur les pratiques de gouvernance des systèmes d'information en matière de stratégie pilotage et organisation

Résumé Si l'impact de l'informatique ne fait généralement pas de doute, il est souvent plus problématique d'en mesurer sa valeur. Les Directeurs des Systèmes d'Information (DSI) expliquent l'absence de schéma directeur et de vision à moyen et long terme de l'entreprise, par un manque de temps et de ressources mais aussi par un défaut d'implication des directions générales et des directions financières. L'incapacité de mesurer précisément la valeur du système d'information engendre une logique de gestion par les coûts, néfaste à l'action de la DSI. Alors qu'une mesure de la valeur économique de l'informatique offrirait aux directions générales la matière leur permettant d'évaluer réellement la maturité et la contribution de leur système d'information. L'objectif de cette thèse est d'évaluer à la fois l'alignement de l'informatique avec la stratégie de l'entreprise, la qualité du pilotage (mesure de performance) des systèmes d'information, et enfin, l'organisation et le positionnement de la fonction informatique dans l'entreprise. La mesure de ces trois éléments clés de la gouvernance informatique a été réalisée par l'intermédiaire de deux vagues d'enquêtes successives menées en 2000/2001 (DSI) et 2002/2003 (DSI et DG) en Europe francophone (Suisse Romande, France, Belgique et Luxembourg). Abstract The impact of Information Technology (IT) is today a clear evidence to company stakeholders. However, measuring the value generated by IT is a real challenge. Chief Information Officers (CIO) explain the absence of solid IT Business Plans and clear mid/long term visions by a lack of time and resources but also by a lack of involvement of business senior management (e.g. CEO and CFO). Thus, being not able to measure the economic value of IT, the CIO will have to face the hard reality of permanent cost pressures and cost reductions to justify IT spending and investments. On the other side, being able to measure the value of IT would help CIO and senior business management to assess the maturity and the contribution of the Information System and therefore facilitate the decision making process. The objective of this thesis is to assess the alignment of IT with the business strategy, to assess the quality of measurement of the Information System and last but not least to assess the positioning of the IT organisation within the company. The assessment of these three key elements of the IT Governance was established with two surveys (first wave in 2000/2001 for CIO, second wave in 2002/2003 for CIO and CEO) in Europe (French speaking countries namely Switzerland, France, Belgium and Luxembourg).

Conservation phylogeography: does historical diversity contribute to regional vulnerability in European tree frogs (Hyla arborea)?

Documenting and preserving the genetic diversity of populations, which conditions their long-term survival, have become a major issue in conservation biology. The loss of diversity often documented in declining populations is usually assumed to result from human disturbances; however, historical biogeographic events, otherwise known to strongly impact diversity, are rarely considered in this context. We apply a multilocus phylogeographic study to investigate the late-Quaternary history of a tree frog (Hyla arborea) with declining populations in the northern and western part of its distribution range. Mitochondrial and nuclear polymorphisms reveal high genetic diversity in the Balkan Peninsula, with a spatial structure moulded by the last glaciations. While two of the main refugial lineages remained limited to the Balkans (Adriatic coast, southern Balkans), a third one expanded to recolonize Northern and Western Europe, loosing much of its diversity in the process. Our findings show that mobile and a priori homogeneous taxa may also display substructure within glacial refugia ('refugia within refugia') and emphasize the importance of the Balkans as a major European biodiversity centre. Moreover, the distribution of diversity roughly coincides with regional conservation situations, consistent with the idea that historically impoverished genetic diversity may interact with anthropogenic disturbances, and increase the vulnerability of populations. Phylogeographic models seem important to fully appreciate the risks of local declines and inform conservation strategies.

Forest fires cluster detection with space-time scan statistics

Forest fires are defined as uncontrolled fires often occurring in wildland areas, but that can also affect houses or agricultural resources. Causes are both natural (e.g.,lightning phenomena) and anthropogenic (human negligence or arsons).Major environmental factors influencing the fire ignition and propagation are climate and vegetation. Wildfires are most common and severe during drought period and on windy days. Moreover, under water-stress conditions, which occur after a long hot and dry period, the vegetation is more vulnerable to fire. These conditions are common in the United State and Canada, where forest fires represent a big problem. We focused our analysis on the state of Florida, for which a big dataset on forest fires detection is readily available. USDA Forest Service Remote Sensing Application Center, in collaboration with NASA-Goddard Space Flight Center and the University of Maryland, has compiled daily MODIS Thermal Anomalies (fires and biomass burning images) produced by NASA using a contextual algorithm that exploits the strong emission of mid-infrared radiation from fires. Fire classes were converted in GIS format: daily MODIS fire detections are provided as the centroids of the 1 kilometer pixels and compiled into daily Arc/INFO point coverage.

Seasonal fluctuations of bacterial community diversity in agricultural soil and experimental validation by laboratory disturbance experiments.

Natural fluctuations in soil microbial communities are poorly documented because of the inherent difficulty to perform a simultaneous analysis of the relative abundances of multiple populations over a long time period. Yet, it is important to understand the magnitudes of community composition variability as a function of natural influences (e.g., temperature, plant growth, or rainfall) because this forms the reference or baseline against which external disturbances (e.g., anthropogenic emissions) can be judged. Second, definition of baseline fluctuations in complex microbial communities may help to understand at which point the systems become unbalanced and cannot return to their original composition. In this paper, we examined the seasonal fluctuations in the bacterial community of an agricultural soil used for regular plant crop production by using terminal restriction fragment length polymorphism profiling (T-RFLP) of the amplified 16S ribosomal ribonucleic acid (rRNA) gene diversity. Cluster and statistical analysis of T-RFLP data showed that soil bacterial communities fluctuated very little during the seasons (similarity indices between 0.835 and 0.997) with insignificant variations in 16S rRNA gene richness and diversity indices. Despite overall insignificant fluctuations, between 8 and 30% of all terminal restriction fragments changed their relative intensity in a significant manner among consecutive time samples. To determine the magnitude of community variations induced by external factors, soil samples were subjected to either inoculation with a pure bacterial culture, addition of the herbicide mecoprop, or addition of nutrients. All treatments resulted in statistically measurable changes of T-RFLP profiles of the communities. Addition of nutrients or bacteria plus mecoprop resulted in bacteria composition, which did not return to the original profile within 14 days. We propose that at less than 70% similarity in T-RFLP, the bacterial communities risk to drift apart to inherently different states.

Blockade of both alpha1A- and alpha1B-adrenergic receptor subtype signaling is required to inhibit neointimal formation in the mouse femoral artery.

Attenuation of early restenosis after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) is important for the successful treatment of coronary artery disease. Some clinical studies have shown that hypertension is a risk factor for early restenosis after PCI. These findings suggest that alpha(1)-adrenergic receptors (alpha(1)-ARs) may facilitate restenosis after PCI because of alpha(1)-AR's remarkable contribution to the onset of hypertension. In this study, we examined the neointimal formation after vascular injury in the femoral artery of alpha(1A)-knockout (alpha(1A)-KO), alpha(1B)-KO, alpha(1D)-KO, alpha(1A)-/alpha(1B)-AR double-KO (alpha(1AB)-KO), and wild-type mice to investigate the functional role of each alpha(1)-AR subtype in neointimal formation, which is known to promote restenosis. Neointimal formation 4 wk after wire injury was significantly (P < 0.05) smaller in alpha(1AB)-KO mice than in any other group of mice, while blood pressures were not altered in any of the groups of mice after wire injury compared with those before it. These results suggest that lack of both alpha(1A)- and alpha(1B)-ARs could be necessary to inhibit neointimal formation in the mouse femoral artery.

Position of fixed-dose combinations containing an AT(1)-receptor blocker and a thiazide diuretic.

Treatment of hypertension remains a difficult task despite the availability of different types of medications lowering blood pressure by different mechanisms. In order to reach the target blood pressures recommended today combination therapy is required in most patients. The co-administration of two drugs with different impacts on the cardiovascular system markedly increases the antihypertensive effectiveness without altering adversely tolerability. Fixed low-dose combinations are becoming a valuable option not only as second-line, but also as first-line therapy. In this respect the co-administration of thiazide diuretic with an AT(1)-receptor blocker is particularly appealing. The diuretic-induced decrease in total body sodium activates the renin-angiotensin system, thus rendering blood pressure maintenance angiotensin II-dependent. During blockade of the renin-angiotensin system low doses of thiazides generally suffice, allowing the prevention of undesirable metabolic effects. Also, blockade of the AT(1)-receptor, particularly when angiotensin II production is enhanced in response to diuretic therapy, is expected to be beneficial, since angiotensin II seems to contribute importantly to the pathogenesis of cardiovascular and renal complications of hypertension.

Controlled contrast transcranial Doppler and arterial blood gas analysis to quantify shunt through patent foramen ovale.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: A right-to-left shunt can be identified by contrast transcranial Doppler ultrasonography (c-TCD) at rest and/or after a Valsalva maneuver (VM) or by arterial blood gas (ABG) measurement. We assessed the influence of controlled strain pressures and durations during VM on the right-to-left passage of microbubbles, on which depends the shunt classification by c-TCD, and correlated it with the right-to-left shunt evaluation by ABG measurements in stroke patients with patent foramen ovale (PFO). METHODS: We evaluated 40 stroke patients with transesophageal echocardiography-documented PFO. The microbubbles were recorded with TCD at rest and after 4 different VM conditions with controlled duration and target strain pressures (duration in seconds and pressure in cm H2O, respectively): V5-20, V10-20, V5-40, and V10-40. The ABG analysis was performed after pure oxygen breathing in 34 patients, and the shunt was calculated as percentage of cardiac output. RESULTS: Among all VM conditions, V5-40 and V10-40 yielded the greatest median number of microbubbles (84 and 95, respectively; P&lt;0.01). A significantly larger number of microbubbles were detected in V5-40 than in V5-20 (P&lt;0.001) and in V10-40 than in V10-20 (P&lt;0.01). ABG was not sensitive enough to detect a shunt in 31 patients. CONCLUSIONS: The increase of VM expiratory pressure magnifies the number of microbubbles irrespective of the strain duration. Because the right-to-left shunt classification in PFO is based on the number of microbubbles, a controlled VM pressure is advised for a reproducible shunt assessment. The ABG measurement is not sensitive enough for shunt assessment in stroke patients with PFO.

Space-time relatedness and Hamilton's rule for long-lasting behaviors in viscous populations.

Genes affect not only the behavior and fitness of their carriers but also that of other individuals. According to Hamilton's rule, whether a mutant gene will spread in the gene pool depends on the effects of its carrier on the fitness of all individuals in the population, each weighted by its relatedness to the carrier. However, social behaviors may affect not only recipients living in the generation of the actor but also individuals living in subsequent generations. In this note, I evaluate space-time relatedness coefficients for localized dispersal. These relatedness coefficients weight the selection pressures on long-lasting behaviors, which stem from a multigenerational gap between phenotypic expression by actors and the resulting environmental feedback on the fitness of recipients. Explicit values of space-time relatedness coefficients reveal that they can be surprisingly large for typical dispersal rates, even for hundreds of generations in the future.

Combined pulmonary fibrosis and emphysema syndrome in connective tissue disease.

OBJECTIVE: Connective tissue diseases (CTDs) are associated with several interstitial lung diseases. The aim of this study was to describe the recently individualized syndrome of combined pulmonary fibrosis and emphysema (CPFE) in a population of patients with CTD. METHODS: In this multicenter study, we retrospectively investigated data from patients with CTD who also have CPFE. The demographic characteristics of the patients, the results of pulmonary function testing, high-resolution computed tomography, lung biopsy, and treatment, and the outcomes of the patients were analyzed. RESULTS: Data from 34 patients with CTD who were followed up for a mean±SD duration of 8.3±7.0 years were analyzed. Eighteen of the patients had rheumatoid arthritis (RA), 10 had systemic sclerosis (SSc), 4 had mixed or overlap CTD, and 2 had other CTDs. The mean±SD age of the patients was 57±11 years, 23 were men, and 30 were current or former smokers. High-resolution computed tomography revealed emphysema of the upper lung zones and pulmonary fibrosis of the lower zones in all patients, and all patients exhibited dyspnea during exercise. Moderately impaired pulmonary function test results and markedly reduced carbon monoxide transfer capacity were observed. Five patients with SSc exhibited pulmonary hypertension. Four patients died during followup. Patients with CTD and CPFE were significantly younger than an historical control group of patients with idiopathic CPFE and more frequently were female. In addition, patients with CTD and CPFE had higher lung volumes, lower diffusion capacity, higher pulmonary pressures, and more frequently were male than those with CTD and lung fibrosis without emphysema. CONCLUSION: CPFE warrants inclusion as a novel, distinct pulmonary manifestation within the spectrum of CTD-associated lung diseases in smokers or former smokers, especially in patients with RA or SSc.

Geochemical compositions of marine fossils as proxies for reconstructing ancient environmental conditions.

A brief summary is given here about some of the geochemical methodologies that are often used to obtain information from fossils and sediments about the past environment. Such methods are frequently applied in our project in which the formation of Paleogene phosphate sequences in North Africa is investigated. These layers were deposited in shallow marine seas during a period of extreme warm climate with a high CO(2) concentration in the atmosphere. Some of the characteristics of this greenhouse interval are similar to the modern anthropogenic situation hence it is intensively investigated from several aspects by many scientists. Here the geochemical compositions of fossils deposited during this time are discussed, focusing on how the data are obtained and how they could be evaluated in terms of palaeo-environmental conditions.

Use of non-invasive ambulatory blood pressure monitoring to screen for high-risk hypertensive patients.

Blood pressures measured casually by a doctor often differ considerably from those recorded during everyday activities away from the medical environment. In the present study, we compared office and ambulatory recorded pressures in 475 consecutive untreated patients diagnosed hypertensive by physicians. Blood pressure monitored non-invasively during the day was, on average 15/7 mmHg lower than the corresponding office pressures. The difference between office and ambulatory recorded pressure tended to be greatest in those patients with the highest office blood pressure levels, although the relationship between the two types of measurement was too weak (r = 0.50 and 0.38 for systolic and diastolic pressure, respectively) to have any predictive value in the individual patient. Office blood pressures were at least 10 mmHg higher than ambulatory pressures in 62% of patients for systolic and 42% for diastolic pressure. Blood pressure levels recorded during ambulatory monitoring were higher than in the doctor's office for 18% of patients for systolic and 22% for diastolic pressure. Among patients with systolic pressures of between 161 and 180 mmHg or diastolic pressures between 96 and 105 mmHg when facing a doctor, 27 and 37% respectively, showed markedly lower systolic (less than 140 mmHg) or diastolic (less than 90 mmHg) ambulatory recorded pressures. These data therefore indicate that ambulatory blood pressure monitoring may help to identify those truly hypertensive patients who are most likely to benefit from antihypertensive therapy.

Genometric analyses of the organization of circular chromosomes: a universal pressure determines the direction of ribosomal RNA genes transcription relative to chromosome replication.

Selective pressures related to gene function and chromosomal architecture are acting on genome sequences and can be revealed, for instance, by appropriate genometric methods. Cumulative nucleotide skew analyses, i.e., GC, TA, and ORF orientation skews, predict the location of the origin of DNA replication for 88 out of 100 completely sequenced bacterial chromosomes. These methods appear fully reliable for proteobacteria, Gram-positives, and spirochetes as well as for euryarchaeotes. Based on this genome architecture information, coorientation analyses reveal that in prokaryotes, ribosomal RNA (rRNA) genes encoding the small and large ribosomal subunits are all transcribed in the same direction as DNA replication; that is, they are located along the leading strand. This result offers a simple and reliable method for circumscribing the region containing the origin of the DNA replication and reveals a strong selective pressure acting on the orientation of rRNA genes similar to the weaker one acting on the orientation of ORFs. Rate of coorientation of transfer RNA (tRNA) genes with DNA replication appears to be taxon-specific. Analyzing nucleotide biases such as GC and TA skews of genes and plotting one against the other reveals a taxonomic clusterization of species. All ribosomal RNA genes are enriched in Gs and depleted in Cs, the only so far known exception being the rRNA genes of deuterostomian mitochondria. However, this exception can be explained by the fact that in the chromosome of the human mitochondrion, the model of the deuterostomian organelle genome, DNA replication, and rRNA transcription proceed in opposite directions. A general rule is deduced from prokaryotic and mitochondrial genomes: ribosomal RNA genes that are transcribed in the same direction as the DNA replication are enriched in Gs, and those transcribed in the opposite direction are depleted in Gs.

Molecular changes underlying mammalian phenotypic innovation

Mammals are characterized by specific phenotypic traits that include lactation, hair, and relatively large brains with unique structures. Individual mammalian lineages have, in turn, evolved characteristic traits that distinguish them from others. These include obvious anatom¬ical differences but also differences related to reproduction, life span, cognitive abilities, be¬havior. and disease susceptibility. However, the molecular basis of the diverse mammalian phenotypes and the selective pressures that shaped their evolution remain largely unknown. In the first part of my thesis, I analyzed the genetic factors associated with the origin of a unique mammalian phenotype lactation and I studied the selective pressures that forged the transition from oviparity to viviparity. Using a comparative genomics approach and evolutionary simulations, I showed that the emergence of lactation, as well as the appear¬ance of the casein gene family, significantly reduced selective pressure on the major egg-yolk proteins (the vitellogenin family). This led to a progressive loss of vitellogenins, which - in oviparous species - act as storage proteins for lipids, amino acids, phosphorous and calcium in the isolated egg. The passage to internal fertilization and placentation in therian mam¬mals rendered vitellogenins completely dispensable, which ended in the loss of the whole gene family in this lineage. As illustrated by the vitellogenin study, changes in gene content are one possible underlying factor for the evolution of mammalian-specific phenotypes. However, more subtle genomic changes, such as mutations in protein-coding sequences, can also greatly affect the phenotypes. In particular, it was proposed that changes at the level of gene reg¬ulation could underlie many (or even most) phenotypic differences between species. In the second part of my thesis, I participated in a major comparative study of mammalian tissue transcriptomes, with the goal of understanding how evolutionary forces affected expression patterns in the past 200 million years of mammalian evolution. I showed that, while com¬parisons of gene expressions are in agreement with the known species phylogeny, the rate of expression evolution varies greatly among lineages. Species with low effective population size, such as monotremes and hominoids, showed significantly accelerated rates of gene expression evolution. The most likely explanation for the high rate of gene expression evolution in these lineages is the accumulation of mildly deleterious mutations in regulatory regions, due to the low efficiency of purifying selection. Thus, our observations are in agreement with the nearly neutral theory of molecular evolution. I also describe substantial differences in evolutionary rates between tissues, with brain being the most constrained (especially in primates) and testis significantly accelerated. The rate of gene expression evolution also varies significantly between chromosomes. In particular, I observed an acceleration of gene expression changes on the X chromosome, probably as a result of adaptive processes associated with the origin of therian sex chromosomes. Lastly, I identified several individual genes as well as co-regulated expression modules that have undergone lineage specific expression changes and likely under¬lie various phenotypic innovations in mammals. The methods developed during my thesis, as well as the comprehensive gene content analyses and transcriptomics datasets made available by our group, will likely prove to be useful for further exploratory analyses of the diverse mammalian phenotypes.