Using graphical probability analysis (Bayes Nets) to evaluate a conditional DNA inclusion

This paper discusses the analysis of cases in which the inclusion or exclusion of a particular suspect, as a possible contributor to a DNA mixture, depends on the value of a variable (the number of contributors) that cannot be determined with certainty. It offers alternative ways to deal with such cases, including sensitivity analysis and object-oriented Bayesian networks, that separate uncertainty about the inclusion of the suspect from uncertainty about other variables. The paper presents a case study in which the value of DNA evidence varies radically depending on the number of contributors to a DNA mixture: if there are two contributors, the suspect is excluded; if there are three or more, the suspect is included; but the number of contributors cannot be determined with certainty. It shows how an object-oriented Bayesian network can accommodate and integrate varying perspectives on the unknown variable and how it can reduce the potential for bias by directing attention to relevant considerations and distinguishing different sources of uncertainty. It also discusses the challenge of presenting such evidence to lay audiences.

Advantages of using TEM when analysing asbestos in ambient air

Asbestos is an industrial term to describe some fibrous silicate minerals, which belong to the amphiboles or serpentines group. Six minerals are defined as asbestos including: chrysotile (white asbestos), amosite (grunerite, brown asbestos), crocidolite (riebeckite, blue asbestos), anthophyllite, tremolite and actonolite, but only in their fibrous form. In 1973, the IARC (International Agency for Research on Cancer) classified the asbestos minerals as carcinogenic substances (IARC,1973). The Swiss threshold limit (VME) is 0.01 fibre/ml (SUVA, 2007). Asbestos in Switzerland has been prohibited since 1990, but this doesn't mean we are over asbestos. Up to 20'000 tonnes/year of asbestos was imported between the end of WWII and 1990. Today, all this asbestos is still present in buildings renovated or built during that period of time. During restorations, asbestos fibres can be emitted into the air. The quantification of the emission has to be evaluated accurately. To define the exact risk on workers or on the population is quite hard, as many factors must be considered. The methods to detect asbestos in the air or in materials are still being discussed today. Even though the EPA 600 method (EPA, 1993) has proved itself for the analysis of bulk materials, the method for air analysis is more problematic. In Switzerland, the recommended method is VDI 3492 using a scanning electron microscopy (SEM), but we have encountered many identifications problems with this method. For instance, overloaded filters or long-term exposed filters cannot be analysed. This is why the Institute for Work and Health (IST) has adapted the ISO10312 method: ambient air - determination of asbestos fibres - direct-transfer transmission electron microscopy (TEM) method (ISO, 1995). Quality controls have already be done at a French institute (INRS), which validate our practical experiences. The direct-transfer from MEC's filters on TEM's supports (grids) is a delicate part of the preparation for analysis and requires a lot of trials in the laboratory. IST managed to do proper grid preparations after about two years of development. In addition to the preparation of samples, the micro-analysis (EDX), the micro-diffraction and the morphologic analysis (figure 1.a-c) are also to be mastered. Theses are the three elements, which prove the different features of asbestos identification. The SEM isn't able to associate those three analyses. The TEM is also able to make the difference between artificial and natural fibres that have very similar chemical compositions as well as differentiate types of asbestos. Finally the experiments concluded by IST show that TEM is the best method to quantify and identify asbestos in the air.

The Macklin effect: a frequent etiology for pneumomediastinum in severe blunt chest trauma.

STUDY OBJECTIVES: To review the etiology and pathophysiology of pneumomediastinum in severe blunt trauma, with a special interest in one of its possible origins, the Macklin effect. The Macklin effect relates to a three-step pathophysiologic process: blunt traumatic alveolar ruptures, air dissection along bronchovascular sheaths, and spreading of this blunt pulmonary interstitial emphysema into the mediastinum. The clinical relevance of the Macklin effect was also evaluated. SETTING: A university hospital serving as a reference trauma center. PATIENTS: A selection of 51 patients with severe blunt trauma between 1995 and 2000. Inclusion criteria: Severe trauma or high-speed deceleration justifying chest CT; if chest CT demonstrated a pneumomediastinum, bronchoscopy and esophagoscopy were performed to rule out tracheobronchial or esophageal injury. DESIGN: Retrospective analysis of patients' clinical files, chest CT, and bronchoscopy and esophagoscopy reports. The Macklin effect was diagnosed when an air collection adjacent to a bronchus and a pulmonary vessel could be clearly identified on the chest CT. Clinical relevance of the Macklin effect was statistically evaluated regarding its repercussions on the pulmonary gas exchange function, the respective durations of intensive care and total hospital stay, and the associated injuries. RESULTS: Twenty (39%) Macklin effects and 5 tracheobronchial injuries (10%) were identified. One tracheobronchial injury occurred simultaneously with the Macklin effect. The presence of the Macklin effect affected neither the clinical profile nor the result of pulmonary gas analysis on hospital admission, but was associated with a significant (p < 0.001) lengthening of the intensive care stay. CONCLUSIONS: The Macklin effect is present in 39% of severe blunt traumatic pneumomediastinum detected by CT. Its identification does not rule out a tracheobronchial injury. The Macklin effect reflects severe trauma, since it is associated with significantly prolonged intensive care stay.

Anthropogenic radionuclides in atmospheric air over Switzerland during the last few decades.

The atmospheric nuclear testing in the 1950s and early 1960s and the burn-up of the SNAP-9A satellite led to large injections of radionuclides into the stratosphere. It is generally accepted that current levels of plutonium and caesium radionuclides in the stratosphere are negligible. Here we show that those radionuclides are present in the stratosphere at higher levels than in the troposphere. The lower content in the troposphere reveals that dry and wet deposition efficiently removes radionuclides within a period of a few weeks to months. Since the stratosphere is thermally stratified and separated from the troposphere by the tropopause, radioactive aerosols remain longer. We estimate a mean residence time for plutonium and caesium radionuclides in the stratosphere of 2.5-5 years. Our results also reveal that strong volcanic eruptions like Eyjafjallajökull in 2010 have an important role in redistributing anthropogenic radionuclides from the stratosphere to the troposphere.

Influence de la topographie et des accumulations d'air froid sur les températures moyennes mensuelles et annuelles en Suisse

Les températures moyennes mensuelles et annuelles mesurées à 177 endroits de la Suisse ont été ramenées à une même altitude à l'aide d'une formule empirique afin de détecter les influences de la topographie locale sur ce paramètre. Ces calculs ont montré que des accumulations d'air froid influencent fortement les températures moyennes en saison froide au fond de certaines vallées alpines larges et dépressions du Jura sur une épaisseur d'environ 100 mètres. Le déficit thermique dans ces vallées peut atteindre 2 à 3°C à l'échelle annuelle et 5 à 7°C en hiver comparativement aux versants et sommets environnants. Ces accumulations d'air froid n'influencent que peu les températures moyennes dans les vallées étroites et bien ventilées.

Extraction and concentration of vapors from fire debris for forensic purposes: evaluation of the use of Radiello Passive Air Sampler

The Radiello Passive Air Sampler is one of the latest innovations developed for the sampling of pollutants in the air by passive headspace. It has been reported that its properties allow an enhanced sensitivity, reproducibility and adsorption capacity. It therefore appears to be of interest in the extraction of potential residues of ignitable liquids present in fire debris when arson is suspected. A theoretical approach and several laboratory tests have made it possible to precisely characterize in a forensic perspective the potential of the device in extracting and concentrating the vapors of ignitable liquids found in fire debris. Despite some advantages, the Radiello device appears to be less efficient than traditional axial symmetry samplers.

First day of an oil spill on the open sea: early mass transfers of hydrocarbons to air and water.

During the first hours after release of petroleum at sea, crude oil hydrocarbons partition rapidly into air and water. However, limited information is available about very early evaporation and dissolution processes. We report on the composition of the oil slick during the first day after a permitted, unrestrained 4.3 m(3) oil release conducted on the North Sea. Rapid mass transfers of volatile and soluble hydrocarbons were observed, with >50% of ≤C17 hydrocarbons disappearing within 25 h from this oil slick of <10 km(2) area and <10 μm thickness. For oil sheen, >50% losses of ≤C16 hydrocarbons were observed after 1 h. We developed a mass transfer model to describe the evolution of oil slick chemical composition and water column hydrocarbon concentrations. The model was parametrized based on environmental conditions and hydrocarbon partitioning properties estimated from comprehensive two-dimensional gas chromatography (GC×GC) retention data. The model correctly predicted the observed fractionation of petroleum hydrocarbons in the oil slick resulting from evaporation and dissolution. This is the first report on the broad-spectrum compositional changes in oil during the first day of a spill at the sea surface. Expected outcomes under other environmental conditions are discussed, as well as comparisons to other models.

aIr-1, a newly found locus on mouse chromosome 16 encoding a trans-acting activator factor for MHC class II gene expression.

RJ 2.2.5 is a human B cell line that has lost the capacity to express MHC class II genes. The human class II-positive phenotype is restored in somatic cell hybrids between RJ 2.2.5 and mouse spleen cells. By karyotype and molecular studies of an informative family of hybrids we have now shown that the reexpression of human class II gene products, as well as the maintenance of the mouse class II-positive phenotype, correlates with the presence of mouse chromosome 16. Thus, the existence on this mouse chromosome of a newly found locus, designated by us aIr-1, that determines a trans-acting activator function for class II gene expression, is established. Possible implications of this finding are discussed.

Distribution of artifactual gas on post-mortem multidetector computed tomography (MDCT)

L'imagerie est de plus en plus utilisée en médecine forensique. Actuellement, les connaissances nécessaires pour interpréter les images post mortem sont faibles et surtout celles concernant les artéfacts post mortem. Le moyen radiologique le plus utilisé en médecine légale est la tomodensitométrie multi-coupes (TDMC). Un de ses avantages est la détection de gaz dans le corps. Cette technique est utile au diagnostic d'embolie gazeuse mais sa très grande sensibilité rend visible du gaz présent même en petite quantité. Les premières expériences montrent que presque tous les corps scannés présentent du gaz surtout dans le système vasculaire. Pour cette raison, le médecin légiste est confronté à un nouveau problème : la distinction entre du gaz d'origine post-mortem et une embolie gazeuse vraie. Pour parvenir à cette distinction, il est essentiel d'étudier la distribution de ces gaz en post mortem. Aucune étude systématique n'a encore été réalisée à ce jour sur ce sujet.¦Nous avons étudié l'incidence et la distribution des gaz présents en post mortem dans les vaisseaux, dans les os, dans les tissus sous-cutanés, dans l'espace sous-dural ainsi que dans les cavités crânienne, thoracique et abdominale (82 sites au total) de manière à identifier les facteurs qui pourraient distinguer le gaz post-mortem artéfactuel d'une embolie gazeuse¦Les données TDMC de 119 cadavres ont été étudiées rétrospectivement. Les critères d'inclusion des sujets sont l'absence de lésion corporelle permettant la contamination avec l'air extérieur, et, la documentation du délai entre le moment du décès et celui du CT-scan (p.ex. rapport de police, protocole de réanimation ou témoin). La présence de gaz a été évaluée semi-quantitativement par deux radiologues et codifiée. La codification est la suivante : grade 0 = pas de gaz, grade 1 = une à quelques bulles d'air, grade 2 = structure partiellement remplie d'air, grade 3 = structure complètement remplie d'air.¦Soixante-quatre des 119 cadavres présentent du gaz (62,2%), et 56 (75,7%) ont montré du gaz dans le coeur. Du gaz a été détecté le plus fréquemment dans le parenchyme hépatique (40%); le coeur droit (ventricule 38%, atrium 35%), la veine cave inférieure (infra-rénale 30%, supra-rénale 26%), les veines sus-hépatiques (gauche 26%, moyenne 29%, droite 22 %), et les espaces du porte (29%). Nous avons constaté qu'une grande quantité de gaz liée à la putréfaction présente dans le coeur droit (grade 3) est associée à des collections de gaz dans le parenchyme hépatique (sensibilité = 100%, spécificité = 89,7%). Pour décrire nos résultats, nous avons construit une séquence d'animation qui illustre le processus de putréfaction et l'apparition des gaz à la TDMC post-mortem.¦Cette étude est la première à montrer que l'apparition post-mortem des gaz suit un modèle de distribution spécifique. L'association entre la présence de gaz intracardiaque et dans le parenchyme hépatique pourrait permettre de distinguer du gaz artéfactuel d'origine post-mortem d'une embolie gazeuse vraie. Cette étude fournit une clé pour le diagnostic de la mort due à une embolie gazeuse cardiaque sur la base d'une TDMC post-mortem.¦Abstract¦Purpose: We investigated the incidence and distribution of post-mortem gas detected with multidetector computed tomography (MDCT) to identify factors that could distinguish artifactual gas from cardiac air embolism.¦Material and Methods: MDCT data of 119 cadavers were retrospectively examined. Gas was semiquantitatively assessed in selected blood vessels, organs and body spaces (82 total sites).¦Results: Seventy-four of the 119 cadavers displayed gas (62.2%; CI 95% 52.8 to 70.9), and 56 (75.7%) displayed gas in the heart. Most gas was detected in the hepatic parenchyma (40%); right heart (38% ventricle, 35% atrium), inferior vena cava (30% infrarenally, 26% suprarenally), hepatic veins (26% left, 29% middle, 22% right), and portal spaces (29%). Male cadavers displayed gas more frequently than female cadavers. Gas was detected 5-84 h after death; therefore, the post-mortem interval could not reliably predict gas distribution (rho=0.719, p<0.0001). We found that a large amount of putrefaction-generated gas in the right heart was associated with aggregated gas bubbles in the hepatic parenchyma (sensitivity = 100%, specificity = 89.7%). In contrast, gas in the left heart (sensitivity = 41.7%, specificity = 100%) or in peri-umbilical subcutaneous tissues (sensitivity = 50%, specificity = 96.3%) could not predict gas due to putrefaction.¦Conclusion: This study is the first to show that the appearance of post-mortem gas follows a specific distribution pattern. An association between intracardiac gas and hepatic parenchymal gas could distinguish between post- mortem-generated gas and vital air embolism. We propose that this finding provides a key for diagnosing death due to cardiac air embolism.