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- Définir un accident du travail (AT), une maladie professionnelle (MP), une incapacité permanente (IP), une consolidation. - Se repérer dans les procédures et en comprendre les enjeux.

Predictors of return to work after a knee injury in patients hospitalized in vocational rehabilitation

Introduction.- Knee injuries are frequent in a young and active population. Most of the patients resume their professional activity but few studies were interested in factors that predict a return to work. The aim of this study is to identify these predictors from a large panel of bio-psychosocial variables. We postulated that the return to work 3 months and 2 years after discharge is mostly predicted by psychosocial variables.Patients and methods.- Prospective study, patients hospitalized for a knee injury. Variables measured: the abbreviated injury score (AIS) for the gravity of the injuries, analog visual scale for the intensity of pain, INTERMED for the bio-psychosocial complexity, SF-36 for the quality of life, HADs for the anxiety/depression symptoms and IKDC score for the knee function. Univariate logistic regressions, adjusted for age and gender, were performed in order to predict return to work.Results.- One hundred and twenty-six patients hospitalized during 8 months after the accident were included into this prospective study. A total of 73 (58%) and 75 (59%) questionnaires were available after 3 months and 2 years, respectively. The SF-36 pain was the sole predictor of return to work at 3 months (odds Ratio 1.06 [1.02-1.10], P = 0.01; for a one point increase) and 2 years (odds Ratio 1.06 [1.02-1.10], P = 0.01). At three months, other factors are SF-36 (physic sub-scale), IKDC score, the presence of a work contract and the presence of litigation. The bio-psychosocial complexity, the presence of depressive symptoms predicts the return to work at two years.Discussion.- Our working hypothesis was partially confirmed: some psychosocial factors (i.e. depressive symptoms, work contract, litigation, INTERMED) predict the return to work but the physical health and the knee function, perceived by the patient, are also correlated. Pain is the sole factor isolated at both times (i.e. 3 months and 2 years) and, consequently, appears a key element in the prediction of the return to work. Some factors are accessible to the rehabilitation program but only if an interdisciplinary approach is performed.

Driving under the influence of cocaine or therapeutic administration of cocaine?

Introduction: In forensic toxicology, cocaine is better known for its powerful stimulating effects of nervous system and its high potential for recreational abuse, than for his therapeutic use. However, cocaine is still use as a topical anesthetic and peripheral vasoconstrictor in surgeries of eye, ear, nose and throat. Last decade, an increase of the presence of cocaine and metabolites in blood samples of drivers suspected to drive under the influence of drugs (DUID) was observed in Switzerland (Augsburger et al., Forensic Sci Int 153 (2005) 11-15; Senna et al., Forensic Sci Int 198 (2010) 11-16). Observed blood concentration ranges of cocaine and benzoylecgonine were 10-925 μg/L and 20-5200 μg/L, respectively. Since 2005, zero-tolerance approach was introduced in the Swiss legislation for different substances, especially cocaine (analytical cutoff: 15 μg/L). Thus, the interpretation often amounts to determine if the concentration is situated above or under the limit. However, it is important for the interpretation to take into account the context and to be critical with the obtained results, at the risk of ending in erroneous conclusions. Methods: Systematical toxicological analyses were performed on blood and urine, if available, for 5 DUID cases, as already published (Augsburger et al., Forensic Sci Int 153 (2005)). Positive results were confirmed and drugs were quantified in biological samples by GCMS, GC-MS/MS or LC-MS/MS. Results: Administration of cocaine after traffic accident was identified in five cases. All people were admitted to the emergency room because of severe trauma. Maxillofacial surgery was done shortly after admission to the emergency room, involving use of nasal application of cocaine (swab). For all cases, use of cocaine swab was not mentioned in the document filled by the police and by medical staff requested for blood and urine sampling. The information was obtained retrospectively after consultation of the medical records, without precise indication of the application time or dose. Case 1. A 83-year old man (pedestrian) was hit by a car. Blood (+11h after the accident): cocaine (16 μg/L), benzoylecgonine (370 μg/L). Urine: cocaine (1700 μg/L), benzoylecgonine (560 μg/L). Case 2. A 84-year old woman (pedestrian) was hit by a car. Blood (+1.5h after the accident): cocaine (230 μg/L), benzoylecgonine (370 μg/L). Urine was not available. Hair (+4 months after the accident): segment 1 (0-2 cm), cocaine not detected; segment 2 (2-4 cm), cocaine: <0.5 ng/mg. Case 3. A 66-year old man was involved in a car/car accident. He died 2 hours and 5 minutes after the crash. Blood (+1.5h after the accident): cocaine and metabolites not detected. Blood (+2h after the accident): cocaine (1750 μg/L), benzoylecgonine (460 μg/L). Blood (post-mortem): cocaine (370 μg/L), benzoylecgonine (200 μg/L). Urine (+1.5h after the accident): cocaine not detected. Case 4. A 57-year old woman on a motor scooter was hit by a car. She died 2 hours and 10 minutes after the crash. Blood (+0.5h after the accident): cocaine and metabolites not detected. Urine (post-mortem): cocaine (<20 μg/L), benzoylecgonine (120 μg/L). Case 5. A 30-year old man was involved in a car accident. Blood (+4h after the accident): cocaine (29 μg/L), benzoylecgonine (< 20 μg/L). Urine (+4h after the accident): cocaine and metabolites not detected. Ethanol (1,32 g/kg) and cannabinoids (THC (2,0 μg/L), THCCOOH (38 μg/L)) were also detected in blood. Conclusion: To our knowledge, this is the first description of DUID cases involving therapeutic use of cocaine after an accident. These results indicate that even if a per se law is effective for prosecution case of DUID, a critical interpretation of the results is always needed, especially if a medical intervention occurs after an accident.

Exposition au VIH, à l'hépatite B et C au cabinet médical et à l'hôpital. Prévention et prophylaxie postexpositionnelle [Exposure to HIV, hepatitis B and C in office practice and hospital. Prevention and post-exposure prophylaxis]

Suite à un accident exposant à du sang (piqûre; coupure), provenant d'un patient infecté, le risque d'infection par VIH est d'environ 0,3% et par le virus de l'hépatite C (VHC) d'environ 0,5%. Chez les personnes vaccinées avec une réponse immunitaire adéquate (titre d'anticorps HBs >100 mUI/ml), aucune infection professionnelle par hépatite B n'a été reconnue en Suisse. La plupart des infections par VIH et VHB peuvent être prévenues par un traitement d'urgence et une prophylaxie postexpositionnelle (PEP). Il n'y a actuellement aucune prophylaxie postexpositionnelle pour le VHC. En cas de transmission de VHC, un traitement rapide par peginterféron et ribavirine est à envisager. Chaque hôpital et cabinet médical doivent mettre sur pied un système pour assurer une prise en charge optimale et en urgence des blessures par piqûres ou coupures. Lors de blessures accidentelles avec du sang de patients séropositifs pour le VIH et dans des situations complexes, il est recommandé de consulter un médecin du personnel ou un infectiologue expérimenté. The risk of infection after an occupational needle stick injury with blood from an infected source patient is approximately 0.3% for HIV and 0.5% for hepatitis C virus (HCV). In Switzerland no cases of occupational HBV infection have been recorded in fully vaccinated persons with a documented adequate vaccine response (HBsantibody titer >100 mIU/mL). Most occupational HIV und HBV infections can be prevented by appropriate emergency measures and post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP). No HCV-PEP is currently available. Early therapy with peginterferon and ribavirin should be considered in cases of occupational HCV seroconversion. Every hospital and office practice should establish a system for 24 h/24 h emergency management of occupational needle stick injuries. In the setting of an HIV-seropositive source patient and in complex situations, early consultation with a specialist in occupational medicine or infectious diseases should be considered.

Neuroprotection in cerebral ischemia with XG-102, a new peptide inhibitor of JNK

Abstract Stroke or cerebrovascular accident, whose great majority is of ischemic nature, is the third leading cause of mortality and long lasting disability in industrialised countries. Resulting from the loss of blood supply to the brain depriving cerebral tissues of oxygen and glucose, it induces irreversible neuronal damages. Despite the large amount of research carried out into the causes and pathogenic features of cerebral ischemia the progress toward effective treatments has been poor. Apart the clot-busting drug tissue-type plasminogen activator (tPA) as effective therapy for acute stroke (reperfusion by thrombolysis) but limited to a low percentage of patients, there are currently no other approved medical treatments. The need for new therapy strategies is therefore imperative. Neuronal death in cerebral ischemia is among others due to excitotoxic mechanisms very early after stroke onset. One of the main involved molecular pathways leading to excitotoxic cell death is the c-Jun NH2-terminal kinase (JNK) pathway. Several studies have already shown the efficacy of a neuroprotective agent of a new type, a dextrogyre peptide synthesized in the retro inverso form (XG102, formerly D-JNKI1), which is protease-resistant and cell-penetrating and that selectively and strongly blocks the access of JNK to many of its targets. A powerful protection was observed with this compound in several models of ischemia (Borsello et al. 2003;Hirt et al. 2004). This chimeric compound, made up of a 10 amino acid TAT transporter sequence followed by a 20 amino acids JNK binding domain (JBD) sequence from JNK inhibitor protein (JIP) molecule, induced both a major reduction in lesion size and improved functional outcome. Moreover it presents a wide therapeutic window. XG-102 has proved its powerful efficacy in an occlusion model of middle cerebral artery in mice with intracérebroventricular (i.c.v.) injection but in order to be able to consider the development of this drug for human ischemic stroke it was therefore necessary to determine the feasibility of its systemic administration. The studies being the subject of this thesis made it possible to show a successful neuroprotection with XG-102 administered systemically after transient mouse middle cerebral artery occlusion (MCAo). Moreover our data. provided information about the feasibility to combine XG-102 with tPA without detrimental action on cell survival. By combining the benefits from a reperfusion treatment with the effects of a neuroprotective compound, it would represent the advantage of bringing better chances to protect the cerebral tissue. Résumé L'attaque cérébrale ou accident vasculaire cérébral, dont la grande majorité est de nature ischémique, constitue la troisième cause de mortalité et d'infirmité dans les pays industrialisés. Résultant de la perte d'approvisionnement de sang au cerveau privant les tissus cérébraux d'oxygène et de glucose, elle induit des dommages neuronaux irréversibles. En dépit du nombre élevé de recherches effectuées pour caractériser les mécanismes pathogènes de l'ischémie. cérébrale, les progrès vers des traitements efficaces restent pauvres. Excepté l'activateur tissulaire du plasminogène (tPA) dont le rôle est de désagréger les caillots sanguins et employé comme thérapie efficace contre l'attaque cérébrale aiguë (reperfusion par thrombolyse) mais limité à un faible pourcentage de patients, il n'y a actuellement aucun autre traitement médical approuvé. Le besoin de nouvelles stratégies thérapeutiques est par conséquent impératif. La mort neuronale dans l'ischémie cérébrale est entre autres due à des mécanismes excitotoxiques survenant rapidement après le début de l'attaque cérébrale. Une des principales voies moléculaires impliquée conduisant à la mort excitotoxique des cellules est la voie de la c-Jun NH2terminal kinase (JNK). Plusieurs études ont déjà montré l'efficacité d'un agent neuroprotecteur d'un nouveau type, un peptide dextrogyre synthétisé sous la forme retro inverso (XG-102, précédemment D-JNKI1) résistant aux protéases, capable de pénétrer dans les cellules et de bloquer sélectivement et fortement l'accès de JNK à plusieurs de ses cibles. Une puissante protection a été observée avec ce composé dans plusieurs modèles d'ischémie (Borsello et al. 2003;Hirt et al. 2004). Ce composé chimérique, construit à partir d'une séquence TAT de 10 acides aminés suivie par une séquence de 20 acides aminés d'un domaine liant JNK (JBD) issu de la molécule JNK protéine inhibitrice. (JIP), induit à la fois une réduction importante de la taille de lésion et un comportement fonctionnel amélioré. De plus il présente une fenêtre thérapeutique étendue. XG-102 a prouvé sa puissante efficacité dans un modèle d'occlusion de l'artère cérébrale moyenne chez la souris avec injection intracerebroventriculaire (i.c.v.) mais afin de pouvoir envisager le développement de ce composé pour l'attaque cérébrale chez l'homme, il était donc nécessaire de déterminer la faisabilité de son administration systémique. Les études faisant l'objet de cette thèse ont permis de montrer une neuroprotection importante avec XG-102 administré de façon systémique après l'occlusion transitoire de l'artère cérébrale moyenne chez la souris (MCAo). De plus nos données ont fourni des informations quant à la faisabilité de combiner XG-102 et tPA, démontrant une protection efficace par XG-102 malgré l'action nuisible du tPA sur la survie des cellules. En combinant les bénéfices de la reperfusion avec les effets d'un composé neurooprotecteur, cela représenterait l'avantage d'apporter des meilleures chances de protéger le tissu cérébral.

Management options for accidental injection of epinephrine from an autoinjector: a case report.

INTRODUCTION: Epinephrine autoinjector devices are used with increasing frequency to treat severe anaphylactic reactions. Accidental injection, usually involving a finger, is a potential complication. CASE PRESENTATION: A physician in a Family Practice training program accidentally injected epinephrine into his left thumb while reading the operating instructions of an autoinjector (Epipen((R))). He developed swelling, pallor, and pain in the thumb. Treatment included topical nitroglycerin, oral vasodilators and warming of the thumb. As expected, none caused an immediate response; however, after 8 hours, the thumb was pink and warm. There was full recovery 2 months after the accident. We reviewed the treatment of accidental epinephrine injection, and found that the use of parenteral adrenergic alpha blocker phentolamine would have produced immediate recovery. CONCLUSIONS: All health professionals concerned with the use of epinephrine autoinjectors should receive adequate instruction on their use. A regimen for management of accidental epinephrine injection, in particular the use of phentolamine, should be emphasized.

Traitement nutritionnel du grand brûlé [Nutritional therapy in major burns]

Résumé Les brûlures graves (> 20 % surface corporelle [SC]) entraînent un stress oxydatif intense, des perturbations métaboliques et une réponse inflammatoire caractérisées par leur intensité et par leur durée, sans comparaison avec celles observées dans les autres pathologies. La modulation de ces réponses est devenue un objectif thérapeutique. Le brûlé nécessite des apports élevés en énergie (35-50 kcal/kg par jour), en glucides et en protéines (1,5-2,5 g/kg par jour) et faibles en lipides (idéalement moins de 20 % de l'apport calorique). La supplémentation en glutamine contribue à normaliser la réponse immunitaire et accélère la cicatrisation. La voie entérale (gastrique ou postpylorique) est la voie de choix et doit être utilisée dès le jour de l'accident. Les déficits aigus et précoces de micronutriments sont causés par des pertes exudatives par la peau lésée : la substitution est bénéfique sur le plan biologique et clinique. Les doses nécessaires sont de l'ordre de cinq à dix fois celles utilisées dans d'autres indications de nutrition parentérale pendant sept à 30 jours selon la SC brûlée. L'insuline qui favorise l'anabolisme et le propranolol qui réduit le catabolisme font partie de l'arsenal thérapeutique standard. Le suivi nutritionnel (poids et préalbumine hebdomadaire) est essentiel pour vérifier la réponse au support nutritionnel.

Host factors in occupational diisocyanate asthma: a Swiss longitudinal study

Objective: To investigate the usefulness of surrogates for individual susceptibility to organic diisocyanates in occupational asthma. Subjects: All new cases declared to the Swiss National Accident Insurance Company (SUVA) for establishment of a case for compensable occupational disease during 1993. Sixty-nine persons, of whom three were women, were suspected of having occupational asthma due to isocyanates. Of these, 47 subjects fulfilled the criteria to be accepted as an occupational disease case. Methods: All subjects were studied clinically and gave a blood sample for the phenotyping of their alpha-antitrypsin status and for immunological studies. The subjects were also given a peroral dose of caffeine for the determination of their N-acetylation capacity. Finally, those with an occupational disease were subjected to the methacholine provocation test. Results: Forty-four persons with occupational disease, out of 47, were heterozygous antitrypsin carriers and/or slow acetylators of primary amines. In the bronchial provocation with methacholine, 12 of these subjects had an unaltered response and seven had a mild reaction, 13 a moderate one and 15 a severe reaction. Interpretation: The study confirms the finding that slow N-acetylators are susceptible to asthma from exposure to common diisocyanate monomers at work. The same applies to heterozygous antitrypsin-phenotype carriers. Thus, the use of these markers may reinforce the diagnostic procedure, but they cannot completely replace the immunological tests. [Authors]

Infarctus cérébraux artériels d'origine hématologique : expérience lausannoise et revue de la littérature

RÉSUMÉ Introduction. Les hémopathies représentent une cause rare d'accident vasculaire cérébral (AVC), faisant l'objet de peu de publications, mais sont très fréquemment recherchées après un AVC par de coûteux bilans dont la rentabilité reste à définir. Matériel et Méthodes. Dans le registre lausannois des AVC, nous nous sommes intéressés de façon rétrospective aux dossiers des patients hospitalisés entre 1979 et 2001 pour un premier AVC ischémique artériel, dont la cause a été attribuée à une pathologie hématologique. Sur 4 697 patients, 22 (0,47 p. 100) ont vu leur AVC imputé à l'une des causes hématologiques suivantes : maladie de Vaquez , polyglobulie secondaire , thrombocytémie essentielle , thrombocytose secondaire , myélome multiple , MD , déficit en protéine S , syndrome anticorps antiphospholipides , hyperhomocystéinémie . Chaque hémopathie retrouvée a donné lieu à une revue de la littérature. Conclusion. À la lumière de ces données, nous concluons qu'une formule sanguine représente un bilan hématologique de dépistage suffisant pour l'immense majorité des patients hospitalisés pour un premier AVC artériel ischémique. Les recherches d'anticorps antiphospholipides, de thrombophilies héréditaires et d'hyperhomocystéinémie peuvent être limitées à des cas sélectionnés. SUMMARY Cerebral infarction of arterial origin and haematological causation: the Lausanne experience and a review of the literature. Introduction. Hematological diseases are seldom found as the etiology of ischemic strokes, but are frequently investigated by expensive laboratory tests after a first cerebral vascular event. Methods. In the Lausanne Stroke Registry, we retrospectively reviewed the cases of patients hospitalized between 1979 and 2001 for a first ischemic arterial stroke which was attributed to a hematological etiology. Of 4697 patients, 22 (0.47 per cent) had a stroke due to one of the following hematological pathology: polycythemia vera, secondary polycythemia, essential thrombocytemia, secondary thrombocytosis, multiple myeloma, CIVD, protein S deficiency, antiphospholipid antibody syndrome, moderate homocysteinemia. A literature review was undertaken for each hemopathy. Conclusion. In light of the results of these data, we concluded that a complete blood count provides sufficient hematological screening for the majority of patients hospitalized for an arterial stroke. The antiphospholipid antibody syndrome is a rare cause of cerebral infarction, which needs to be investigated in young patients, in cases of multiple or recurring stroke or in the presence of a typical history. Inherited thrombophilias are not a significant risk factor for arterial cerebral infarction and their investigation is only warranted for a sub-group of young patients with a cryptogenic stroke, in which group the prevalence is slightly increased. Moderate homocysteinemia must be considered as a cerebrovascular risk factor of minor importance, but potentially treatable by a substitution of vitamin B12, B 6 and folates. The efficacy of this substitution in the prevention of cardiovascular events needs yet to be demonstrated.

Determining 241Pu in environmental samples: case studies in alpine soils.

A procedure was developed for determining 241Pu activity in environmental samples. This beta emitter isotope of plutonium was measured by ultra low level liquid scintillation, after several separation and purification steps that involved the use of a highly selective extraction chromatographic resin (Eichrom-TEVA). Due to the lack of reference material for 241Pu, the method was nevertheless validated using four IAEA reference sediments with information values for 241Pu. Next, the method was used to determine the 241Pu activity in alpine soils of Switzerland and France. The 241Pu/239,240Pu and 238Pu/239,240Pu activity ratios confirmed that Pu contamination in the tested alpine soils originated mainly from global fallout from nuclear weapon tests conducted in the fifties and sixties. Estimation of the date of the contamination, using the 241Pu/241Am age-dating method, further confirmed this origin. However, the 241Pu/241Am dating method was limited to samples where Pu-Am fractionation was insignificant. If any, the contribution of the Chernobyl accident is negligible.

Double-bundle transtibial posterior cruciate ligament reconstruction with a tendon-patellar bone-semitendinosus tendon autograft: clinical results with a minimum of 2 years' follow-up.

PURPOSE: The purpose of this study was to evaluate the clinical and subjective outcomes after arthroscopic-assisted double-bundle posterior cruciate ligament (PCL) reconstruction. METHODS: A series of 15 patients with grade III isolated chronic PCL tears underwent double-bundle PCL reconstruction. Of these patients, 8 (53%) had simultaneous fractures. The mean time from accident to surgery was 10.8 months (range, 8 to 15 months). The mean age at the time of surgery was 28.2 years (range, 17 to 43 years). All of the patients reported knee insecurity during activities of daily living or light sporting activities, with associated anterior knee pain in 5 patients. Preoperatively, posterolateral or posteromedial corner injuries were ruled out through accurate clinical examination. The knees were assessed before surgery and at a mean follow-up of 3.2 years (range, 2 to 5 years) with a physical examination, 4 different rating scales, and stress radiographs obtained with a Telos device (Telos, Marburg, Germany). RESULTS: Postoperative physical examination revealed a reduction of the posterior drawer and tibial step-off in all cases, although the posterior laxity was not completely normalized. Nevertheless, the patients were subjectively better after surgery. The subjective International Knee Documentation Committee score was significantly ameliorated. With regard to the objective International Knee Documentation Committee score, 6 knees (40%) were graded as abnormal because of posterior displacement of 6 mm or greater on follow-up stress radiographs with the Telos device. On the Lysholm knee scoring scale, the score was excellent in 13% of patients and good in 87%. The mean score on the Hospital for Special Surgery knee ligament rating scale was 85.8. The Tegner activity score showed an amelioration after surgery, but no patient resumed his or her preinjury level of activities. The postoperative stress radiographs revealed an improvement in posterior instability of 50% or more in all but 3 knees (20%). CONCLUSIONS: Our technique of double-bundle PCL reconstruction produced a significant reduction in knee symptoms and allowed the patients to return to moderate or strenuous activity, although the posterior tibial translation was not completely normalized and our results appear to be no better than the results of single-bundle PCL reconstruction. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Level IV, therapeutic case series.

Society, politcs and nuclear energy in Switzerland

After the Fukushima accident, the Swiss Federal Council opted for withdrawal from nuclear energy in the horizon 2035. Considering that this decision cannot be studied in historical isolation, this article describes the evolution of the relationship between nuclear energy and the Swiss society by highlighting four distinctive periods: the social mobilisation of the seventies and eighties, the turning point of the nineties, the nuclear revival in the late 2000s and the Fukushima accident. To describe this relationship, we will analyse social mobilisation and the results of initiatives and empirical studies related to nuclear energy in Switzerland.

Mutism and Amnesia following High-Voltage Electrical Injury: Psychogenic Symptomatology Triggered by Organic Dysfunction?

Background: Mutism and dense retrograde amnesia are found both in organic and dissociative contexts. Moreover, dissociative symptoms may be modulated by right prefrontal activity. A single case, M.R., developed left hemiparesis, mutism and retrograde amnesia after a high-voltage electric shock without evidence of lasting brain lesions. M.R. suddenly recovered from his mutism following a mild brain trauma 2 years later. Methods: M.R.'s neuropsychological pattern and anatomoclinical correlations were studied through (i) language and memory assessment to characterize his deficits, (ii) functional neuroimaging during a standard language paradigm, and (iii) assessment of frontal and left insular connectivity through diffusion tractography imaging and transcranial magnetic stimulation. A control evaluation was repeated after recovery. Findings: M.R. recovered from the left hemiparesis within 90 days of the accident, which indicated a transient right brain impairment. One year later, neurobehavioral, language and memory evaluations strongly suggested a dissociative component in the mutism and retrograde amnesia. Investigations (including MRI, fMRI, diffusion tensor imaging, EEG and r-TMS) were normal. Twenty-seven months after the electrical injury, M.R. had a very mild head injury which was followed by a rapid recovery of speech. However, the retrograde amnesia persisted. Discussion: This case indicates an interaction of both organic and dissociative mechanisms in order to explain the patient's symptoms. The study also illustrates dissociation in the time course of the two different dissociative symptoms in the same patient.

BME-based uncertainty assessment of the Chernobyl fallout

The vast territories that have been radioactively contaminated during the 1986 Chernobyl accident provide a substantial data set of radioactive monitoring data, which can be used for the verification and testing of the different spatial estimation (prediction) methods involved in risk assessment studies. Using the Chernobyl data set for such a purpose is motivated by its heterogeneous spatial structure (the data are characterized by large-scale correlations, short-scale variability, spotty features, etc.). The present work is concerned with the application of the Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME) method to estimate the extent and the magnitude of the radioactive soil contamination by 137Cs due to the Chernobyl fallout. The powerful BME method allows rigorous incorporation of a wide variety of knowledge bases into the spatial estimation procedure leading to informative contamination maps. Exact measurements (?hard? data) are combined with secondary information on local uncertainties (treated as ?soft? data) to generate science-based uncertainty assessment of soil contamination estimates at unsampled locations. BME describes uncertainty in terms of the posterior probability distributions generated across space, whereas no assumption about the underlying distribution is made and non-linear estimators are automatically incorporated. Traditional estimation variances based on the assumption of an underlying Gaussian distribution (analogous, e.g., to the kriging variance) can be derived as a special case of the BME uncertainty analysis. The BME estimates obtained using hard and soft data are compared with the BME estimates obtained using only hard data. The comparison involves both the accuracy of the estimation maps using the exact data and the assessment of the associated uncertainty using repeated measurements. Furthermore, a comparison of the spatial estimation accuracy obtained by the two methods was carried out using a validation data set of hard data. Finally, a separate uncertainty analysis was conducted that evaluated the ability of the posterior probabilities to reproduce the distribution of the raw repeated measurements available in certain populated sites. The analysis provides an illustration of the improvement in mapping accuracy obtained by adding soft data to the existing hard data and, in general, demonstrates that the BME method performs well both in terms of estimation accuracy as well as in terms estimation error assessment, which are both useful features for the Chernobyl fallout study.

Rehabilitation outcomes for orthopaedic trauma individuals as measured by the INTERMED.

PURPOSE: Bio-psychosocial characteristics of patients after orthopaedic traumas may be a strong predictor of poor outcome. The objective of this prospective study was to assess whether the INTERMED, a measure of bio-psychosocial complexity, identifies complex inpatients during rehabilitation including vocational aspects with a poor outcome 1 year after discharge. METHOD: At entry, the INTERMED scores of 118 inpatients were used to assign patients to the high or low complexity group. A questionnaire evaluated 1 year after discharge whether patients: (1) returned to work, (2) still have therapies, (3) take psychoactive drugs, (4) take medication against pain and (5) were satisfied with vocational therapy. Univariate logistic regressions identified which variables predict INTERMED case complexity during hospitalisation as well as predictors (i.e. INTERMED case complexity, French as preferred language, duration of the disability, accident at work, work qualification, severity of the injury, psychiatric co-morbidities, pain) of the five measured outcomes 1 year after discharge. RESULTS: During hospitalisation, the high complexity group was associated with a high prevalence of psychiatric co-morbidities, a higher level of pain and a weaker perception of treatment effects. One year after discharge, the INTERMED was the sole variable to predict all outcomes. CONCLUSION: The INTERMED identifies complex patients during vocational rehabilitation after orthopaedic trauma and is a good predictor of poor outcome 1 year after discharge.