Rules of origin : from analysis to reform

General Introduction This thesis can be divided into two main parts :the first one, corresponding to the first three chapters, studies Rules of Origin (RoOs) in Preferential Trade Agreements (PTAs); the second part -the fourth chapter- is concerned with Anti-Dumping (AD) measures. Despite wide-ranging preferential access granted to developing countries by industrial ones under North-South Trade Agreements -whether reciprocal, like the Europe Agreements (EAs) or NAFTA, or not, such as the GSP, AGOA, or EBA-, it has been claimed that the benefits from improved market access keep falling short of the full potential benefits. RoOs are largely regarded as a primary cause of the under-utilization of improved market access of PTAs. RoOs are the rules that determine the eligibility of goods to preferential treatment. Their economic justification is to prevent trade deflection, i.e. to prevent non-preferred exporters from using the tariff preferences. However, they are complex, cost raising and cumbersome, and can be manipulated by organised special interest groups. As a result, RoOs can restrain trade beyond what it is needed to prevent trade deflection and hence restrict market access in a statistically significant and quantitatively large proportion. Part l In order to further our understanding of the effects of RoOs in PTAs, the first chapter, written with Pr. Olivier Cadot, Celine Carrère and Pr. Jaime de Melo, describes and evaluates the RoOs governing EU and US PTAs. It draws on utilization-rate data for Mexican exports to the US in 2001 and on similar data for ACP exports to the EU in 2002. The paper makes two contributions. First, we construct an R-index of restrictiveness of RoOs along the lines first proposed by Estevadeordal (2000) for NAFTA, modifying it and extending it for the EU's single-list (SL). This synthetic R-index is then used to compare Roos under NAFTA and PANEURO. The two main findings of the chapter are as follows. First, it shows, in the case of PANEURO, that the R-index is useful to summarize how countries are differently affected by the same set of RoOs because of their different export baskets to the EU. Second, it is shown that the Rindex is a relatively reliable statistic in the sense that, subject to caveats, after controlling for the extent of tariff preference at the tariff-line level, it accounts for differences in utilization rates at the tariff line level. Finally, together with utilization rates, the index can be used to estimate total compliance costs of RoOs. The second chapter proposes a reform of preferential Roos with the aim of making them more transparent and less discriminatory. Such a reform would make preferential blocs more "cross-compatible" and would therefore facilitate cumulation. It would also contribute to move regionalism toward more openness and hence to make it more compatible with the multilateral trading system. It focuses on NAFTA, one of the most restrictive FTAs (see Estevadeordal and Suominen 2006), and proposes a way forward that is close in spirit to what the EU Commission is considering for the PANEURO system. In a nutshell, the idea is to replace the current array of RoOs by a single instrument- Maximum Foreign Content (MFC). An MFC is a conceptually clear and transparent instrument, like a tariff. Therefore changing all instruments into an MFC would bring improved transparency pretty much like the "tariffication" of NTBs. The methodology for this exercise is as follows: In step 1, I estimate the relationship between utilization rates, tariff preferences and RoOs. In step 2, I retrieve the estimates and invert the relationship to get a simulated MFC that gives, line by line, the same utilization rate as the old array of Roos. In step 3, I calculate the trade-weighted average of the simulated MFC across all lines to get an overall equivalent of the current system and explore the possibility of setting this unique instrument at a uniform rate across lines. This would have two advantages. First, like a uniform tariff, a uniform MFC would make it difficult for lobbies to manipulate the instrument at the margin. This argument is standard in the political-economy literature and has been used time and again in support of reductions in the variance of tariffs (together with standard welfare considerations). Second, uniformity across lines is the only way to eliminate the indirect source of discrimination alluded to earlier. Only if two countries face uniform RoOs and tariff preference will they face uniform incentives irrespective of their initial export structure. The result of this exercise is striking: the average simulated MFC is 25% of good value, a very low (i.e. restrictive) level, confirming Estevadeordal and Suominen's critical assessment of NAFTA's RoOs. Adopting a uniform MFC would imply a relaxation from the benchmark level for sectors like chemicals or textiles & apparel, and a stiffening for wood products, papers and base metals. Overall, however, the changes are not drastic, suggesting perhaps only moderate resistance to change from special interests. The third chapter of the thesis considers whether Europe Agreements of the EU, with the current sets of RoOs, could be the potential model for future EU-centered PTAs. First, I have studied and coded at the six-digit level of the Harmonised System (HS) .both the old RoOs -used before 1997- and the "Single list" Roos -used since 1997. Second, using a Constant Elasticity Transformation function where CEEC exporters smoothly mix sales between the EU and the rest of the world by comparing producer prices on each market, I have estimated the trade effects of the EU RoOs. The estimates suggest that much of the market access conferred by the EAs -outside sensitive sectors- was undone by the cost-raising effects of RoOs. The chapter also contains an analysis of the evolution of the CEECs' trade with the EU from post-communism to accession. Part II The last chapter of the thesis is concerned with anti-dumping, another trade-policy instrument having the effect of reducing market access. In 1995, the Uruguay Round introduced in the Anti-Dumping Agreement (ADA) a mandatory "sunset-review" clause (Article 11.3 ADA) under which anti-dumping measures should be reviewed no later than five years from their imposition and terminated unless there was a serious risk of resumption of injurious dumping. The last chapter, written with Pr. Olivier Cadot and Pr. Jaime de Melo, uses a new database on Anti-Dumping (AD) measures worldwide to assess whether the sunset-review agreement had any effect. The question we address is whether the WTO Agreement succeeded in imposing the discipline of a five-year cycle on AD measures and, ultimately, in curbing their length. Two methods are used; count data analysis and survival analysis. First, using Poisson and Negative Binomial regressions, the count of AD measures' revocations is regressed on (inter alia) the count of "initiations" lagged five years. The analysis yields a coefficient on measures' initiations lagged five years that is larger and more precisely estimated after the agreement than before, suggesting some effect. However the coefficient estimate is nowhere near the value that would give a one-for-one relationship between initiations and revocations after five years. We also find that (i) if the agreement affected EU AD practices, the effect went the wrong way, the five-year cycle being quantitatively weaker after the agreement than before; (ii) the agreement had no visible effect on the United States except for aone-time peak in 2000, suggesting a mopping-up of old cases. Second, the survival analysis of AD measures around the world suggests a shortening of their expected lifetime after the agreement, and this shortening effect (a downward shift in the survival function postagreement) was larger and more significant for measures targeted at WTO members than for those targeted at non-members (for which WTO disciplines do not bind), suggesting that compliance was de jure. A difference-in-differences Cox regression confirms this diagnosis: controlling for the countries imposing the measures, for the investigated countries and for the products' sector, we find a larger increase in the hazard rate of AD measures covered by the Agreement than for other measures.

Testing Spatial Autocorrelation in Weighted Networks : the Modes Permutation Test

In a weighted spatial network, as specified by an exchange matrix, the variances of the spatial values are inversely proportional to the size of the regions. Spatial values are no more exchangeable under independence, thus weakening the rationale for ordinary permutation and bootstrap tests of spatial autocorrelation. We propose an alternative permutation test for spatial autocorrelation, based upon exchangeable spatial modes, constructed as linear orthogonal combinations of spatial values. The coefficients obtain as eigenvectors of the standardised exchange matrix appearing in spectral clustering, and generalise to the weighted case the concept of spatial filtering for connectivity matrices. Also, two proposals aimed at transforming an acessibility matrix into a exchange matrix with with a priori fixed margins are presented. Two examples (inter-regional migratory flows and binary adjacency networks) illustrate the formalism, rooted in the theory of spectral decomposition for reversible Markov chains.

Phase-based manganese enhanced MRI, a new methodology to enhance brain cytoarchitectural contrast and study manganese uptake.

PURPOSE: As the magnetic susceptibility induced frequency shift increases linearly with magnetic field strength, the present work evaluates manganese as a phase imaging contrast agent and investigates the dose dependence of brain enhancement in comparison to T1 -weighted imaging after intravenous administration of MnCl2 . METHODS: Experiments were carried out on 12 Sprague-Dawley rats. MnCl2 was infused intravenously with the following doses: 25, 75, 125 mg/kg (n=4). Phase, T1 -weighted images and T1 maps were acquired before and 24h post MnCl2 administration at 14.1 Tesla. RESULTS: Manganese enhancement was manifested in phase imaging by an increase in frequency shift differences between regions rich in calcium gated channels and other tissues, together with local increase in signal to noise ratio (from the T1 reduction). Such contrast improvement allowed a better visualization of brain cytoarchitecture. The measured T1 decrease observed across different manganese doses and in different brain regions were consistent with the increase in the contrast to noise ratio (CNR) measured by both T1 -weighted and phase imaging, with the strongest variations being observed in the dentate gyrus and olfactory bulb. CONCLUSION: Overall from its high sensitivity to manganese combined with excellent CNR, phase imaging is a promising alternative imaging protocol to assess manganese enhanced MRI at ultra high field. Magn Reson Med 72:1246-1256, 2014. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Robust T1-Weighted Structural Brain Imaging and Morphometry at 7T Using MP2RAGE.

PURPOSE: To suppress the noise, by sacrificing some of the signal homogeneity for numerical stability, in uniform T1 weighted (T1w) images obtained with the magnetization prepared 2 rapid gradient echoes sequence (MP2RAGE) and to compare the clinical utility of these robust T1w images against the uniform T1w images. MATERIALS AND METHODS: 8 healthy subjects (29.0±4.1 years; 6 Male), who provided written consent, underwent two scan sessions within a 24 hour period on a 7T head-only scanner. The uniform and robust T1w image volumes were calculated inline on the scanner. Two experienced radiologists qualitatively rated the images for: general image quality; 7T specific artefacts; and, local structure definition. Voxel-based and volume-based morphometry packages were used to compare the segmentation quality between the uniform and robust images. Statistical differences were evaluated by using a positive sided Wilcoxon rank test. RESULTS: The robust image suppresses background noise inside and outside the skull. The inhomogeneity introduced was ranked as mild. The robust image was significantly ranked higher than the uniform image for both observers (observer 1/2, p-value = 0.0006/0.0004). In particular, an improved delineation of the pituitary gland, cerebellar lobes was observed in the robust versus uniform T1w image. The reproducibility of the segmentation results between repeat scans improved (p-value = 0.0004) from an average volumetric difference across structures of ≈6.6% to ≈2.4% for the uniform image and robust T1w image respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The robust T1w image enables MP2RAGE to produce, clinically familiar T1w images, in addition to T1 maps, which can be readily used in uniform morphometry packages.

Iron supplementation in a large Swiss cohort of IBD patients demonstrates a shift from oral to intravenous iron over time

Background: The 2007 European Crohn's and Colitis Organization guidelines on anemia in inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) favour intravenous (iv) over oral (po) iron supplementation due to better effectiveness and tolerance. We aimed to determine the percentage of IBD patients under iron supplementation therapy and the dynamics of prescription habits (iv versus po) over time. Methods: Helsana, a leading Swiss health insurance company provides coverage for approximately 18% of the Swiss population, corresponding to about 1.2 million enrollees. Patients with Crohn's disease (CD) and ulcerative colitis (UC) were analyzed from the anonymised Helsana database. Results: In total, 629 CD (61% female) and 398 UC (57% female) patients were identified, mean observation time was 31.8 months for CD and 31.0 months for UC patients. Of the entire study population, 27.1% were prescribed iron (21.1% in males and 31.1% in females). Patients treated with IBDspecific drugs (steroids, immunomodulators, anti-TNF agents) were more frequently treated with iron compared to patients without any medication (35.0% vs. 20.9%, OR 1.91, 95%- CI 1.41 2.61). The prescription of iv iron increased from 2006/2007 (48.8% of all patients receiving any iron priscription) to 65.2% in 2008/2009 by a factor of 1.89. Conclusions: One third of the IBD population was treated with iron supplementation. A gradual shift from oral to iv iron was observed over time. This switch in prescription habits goes along with the implementation of the ECCO consensus guidelines on anemia in IBD.

Improved coronary artery definition with T2-weighted, free-breathing, three-dimensional coronary MRA.

BACKGROUND: Three-dimensional (3D) navigator-gated and prospectively corrected free-breathing coronary magnetic resonance angiography (MRA) allows for submillimeter image resolution but suffers from poor contrast between coronary blood and myocardium. Data collected over >100 ms/heart beat are also susceptible to bulk cardiac and respiratory motion. To address these problems, we examined the effect of a T2 preparation prepulse (T2prep) for myocardial suppression and a shortened acquisition window on coronary definition. METHODS AND RESULTS: Eight healthy adult subjects and 5 patients with confirmed coronary artery disease (CAD) underwent free-breathing 3D MRA with and without T2prep and with 120- and 60-ms data-acquisition windows. The T2prep resulted in a 123% (P<0. 001) increase in contrast-to-noise ratio (CNR). Coronary edge definition was improved by 33% (P<0.001). Acquisition window shortening from 120 to 60 ms resulted in better vessel definition (11%; P<0.001). Among patients with CAD, there was a good correspondence with disease. CONCLUSIONS: Free-breathing, T2prep, 3D coronary MRA with a shorter acquisition window resulted in improved CNR and better coronary artery definition, allowing the assessment of coronary disease. This approach offers the potential for free-breathing, noninvasive assessment of the major coronary arteries.

Diffusion-weighted spectroscopy: a novel approach to determine macromolecule resonances in short-echo time 1H-MRS.

Quantification of short-echo time proton magnetic resonance spectroscopy results in >18 metabolite concentrations (neurochemical profile). Their quantification accuracy depends on the assessment of the contribution of macromolecule (MM) resonances, previously experimentally achieved by exploiting the several fold difference in T(1). To minimize effects of heterogeneities in metabolites T(1), the aim of the study was to assess MM signal contributions by combining inversion recovery (IR) and diffusion-weighted proton spectroscopy at high-magnetic field (14.1 T) and short echo time (= 8 msec) in the rat brain. IR combined with diffusion weighting experiments (with δ/Δ = 1.5/200 msec and b-value = 11.8 msec/μm(2)) showed that the metabolite nulled spectrum (inversion time = 740 msec) was affected by residuals attributed to creatine, inositol, taurine, choline, N-acetylaspartate as well as glutamine and glutamate. While the metabolite residuals were significantly attenuated by 50%, the MM signals were almost not affected (< 8%). The combination of metabolite-nulled IR spectra with diffusion weighting allows a specific characterization of MM resonances with minimal metabolite signal contributions and is expected to lead to a more precise quantification of the neurochemical profile.

Shift of spawning season and effects of climate warming on developmental stages of a grayling (Salmonidae)

River-dwelling fish, such as European graylings (Thymallus thymallus), are susceptible to changes in climate because they can often not avoid suboptimal temperatures, especially during early developmental stages. We analyzed data collected in a 62-year-long (1948-2009) population monitoring program. Male and female graylings were sampled about three times/week during the yearly spawning season in order to follow the development of the population. The occurrence of females bearing ripe eggs was used to approximate the timing of each spawning season. In the last years of the study, spawning season was more than 3 weeks earlier than in the first years. This shift was linked to increasing water temperatures as recorded over the last 39 years with a temperature logger at the spawning site. In early spring water temperatures rose more slowly than in later spring. Thus, embryos and larvae were exposed to increasingly colder water at a stage that is critical for sex determination and pathogen resistance in other salmonids. In summer, however, fry were exposed to increasingly warmer temperatures. The changes in water temperatures that we found embryos, larvae, and fry were exposed to could be contributing to the decline in abundance that has occurred over the last 30-40 years.

The carbon-isotope shift at the Permian/ Triassic boundary in the southern Alps is gradual

Carbon isotope ratios in marine carbonate rocks have been shown to shift at some of the time boundaries associated with extinction events; for example, Cretaceous/Tertiary and Ordovician/ Silurian. The Permian/Triassic boundary, the greatest extinction event of the Phanerozoic, is also marked by a large d13C depletion. New carbon isotope results from sections in the southern Alps show that this depletion did not actually represent a single event, but was a complex change that spanned perhaps a million years during the late Permian and early Triassic. These results suggest that the Permian/Triassic (P/Tr) extinction may have been in part gradual and in part 'stepwise', but was not in any case a single catastrophic event.

Whole-body 3D T1-weighted MR imaging in patients with prostate cancer: feasibility and evaluation in screening for metastatic disease.

PURPOSE: To develop and assess the diagnostic performance of a three-dimensional (3D) whole-body T1-weighted magnetic resonance (MR) imaging pulse sequence at 3.0 T for bone and node staging in patients with prostate cancer. MATERIALS AND METHODS This prospective study was approved by the institutional ethics committee; informed consent was obtained from all patients. Thirty patients with prostate cancer at high risk for metastases underwent whole-body 3D T1-weighted imaging in addition to the routine MR imaging protocol for node and/or bone metastasis screening, which included coronal two-dimensional (2D) whole-body T1-weighted MR imaging, sagittal proton-density fat-saturated (PDFS) imaging of the spine, and whole-body diffusion-weighted MR imaging. Two observers read the 2D and 3D images separately in a blinded manner for bone and node screening. Images were read in random order. The consensus review of MR images and the findings at prospective clinical and MR imaging follow-up at 6 months were used as the standard of reference. The interobserver agreement and diagnostic performance of each sequence were assessed on per-patient and per-lesion bases. RESULTS: The signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) and contrast-to-noise ratio (CNR) were significantly higher with whole-body 3D T1-weighted imaging than with whole-body 2D T1-weighted imaging regardless of the reference region (bone or fat) and lesion location (bone or node) (P < .003 for all). For node metastasis, diagnostic performance (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve) was higher for whole-body 3D T1-weighted imaging (per-patient analysis; observer 1: P < .001 for 2D T1-weighted imaging vs 3D T1-weighted imaging, P = .006 for 2D T1-weighted imaging + PDFS imaging vs 3D T1-weighted imaging; observer 2: P = .006 for 2D T1-weighted imaging vs 3D T1-weighted imaging, P = .006 for 2D T1-weighted imaging + PDFS imaging vs 3D T1-weighted imaging), as was sensitivity (per-lesion analysis; observer 1: P < .001 for 2D T1-weighted imaging vs 3D T1-weighted imaging, P < .001 for 2D T1-weighted imaging + PDFS imaging vs 3D T1-weighted imaging; observer 2: P < .001 for 2D T1-weighted imaging vs 3D T1-weighted imaging, P < .001 for 2D T1-weighted imaging + PDFS imaging vs 3D T1-weighted imaging). CONCLUSION: Whole-body MR imaging is feasible with a 3D T1-weighted sequence and provides better SNR and CNR compared with 2D sequences, with a diagnostic performance that is as good or better for the detection of bone metastases and better for the detection of lymph node metastases.

Accurate calculations of intermolecular interaction energies using explicitly correlated coupled cluster wave functions and a dispersion-weighted MP2 method.

Explicitly correlated coupled-cluster calculations of intermolecular interaction energies for the S22 benchmark set of Jurecka, Sponer, Cerny, and Hobza (Chem. Phys. Phys. Chem. 2006, 8, 1985) are presented. Results obtained with the recently proposed CCSD(T)-F12a method and augmented double-zeta basis sets are found to be in very close agreement with basis set extrapolated conventional CCSD(T) results. Furthermore, we propose a dispersion-weighted MP2 (DW-MP2) approximation that combines the good accuracy of MP2 for complexes with predominately electrostatic bonding and SCS-MP2 for dispersion-dominated ones. The MP2-F12 and SCS-MP2-F12 correlation energies are weighted by a switching function that depends on the relative HF and correlation contributions to the interaction energy. For the S22 set, this yields a mean absolute deviation of 0.2 kcal/mol from the CCSD(T)-F12a results. The method, which allows obtaining accurate results at low cost, is also tested for a number of dimers that are not in the training set.