82 resultados para volcanic risk hazard


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BACKGROUND: The chemokine RANTES (regulated on activation, normal T-cell expressed and secreted)/CCL5 is involved in the pathogenesis of cardiovascular disease in mice, whereas less is known in humans. We hypothesised that its relevance for atherosclerosis should be reflected by associations between CCL5 gene variants, RANTES serum concentrations and protein levels in atherosclerotic plaques and risk for coronary events. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We conducted a case-cohort study within the population-based MONICA/KORA Augsburg studies. Baseline RANTES serum levels were measured in 363 individuals with incident coronary events and 1,908 non-cases (mean follow-up: 10.2±4.8 years). Cox proportional hazard models adjusting for age, sex, body mass index, metabolic factors and lifestyle factors revealed no significant association between RANTES and incident coronary events (HR [95% CI] for increasing RANTES tertiles 1.0, 1.03 [0.75-1.42] and 1.11 [0.81-1.54]). None of six CCL5 single nucleotide polymorphisms and no common haplotype showed significant associations with coronary events. Also in the CARDIoGRAM study (>22,000 cases, >60,000 controls), none of these CCL5 SNPs was significantly associated with coronary artery disease. In the prospective Athero-Express biobank study, RANTES plaque levels were measured in 606 atherosclerotic lesions from patients who underwent carotid endarterectomy. RANTES content in atherosclerotic plaques was positively associated with macrophage infiltration and inversely associated with plaque calcification. However, there was no significant association between RANTES content in plaques and risk for coronary events (mean follow-up 2.8±0.8 years). CONCLUSIONS: High RANTES plaque levels were associated with an unstable plaque phenotype. However, the absence of associations between (i) RANTES serum levels, (ii) CCL5 genotypes and (iii) RANTES content in carotid plaques and either coronary artery disease or incident coronary events in our cohorts suggests that RANTES may not be a novel coronary risk biomarker. However, the potential relevance of RANTES levels in platelet-poor plasma needs to be investigated in further studies.

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AIMS: To assess the cumulative impact of environmental and individual factors associated with adolescent alcohol misuse and their correlation with self-reported consequences of drinking. METHOD: Cross-sectional school-based survey of a nationally representative sample of 7548 post-mandatory school students and apprentices aged 16-20 years, Switzerland 2002. Alcohol misuse defined by frequency of alcohol use, episodes of drunkenness and driving while drunk. RESULTS: Fifteen significant risk factors were identified among both boys, and girls. An individual score of cumulated risk factors was created by adding the risk factors. The association between the score and the likelihood of being engaged in alcohol misuse was highly significant and dose-dependent (p<.001). A significant proportion of adolescents report perceived adverse consequences of their alcohol consumption. A linear trend (p<.001) was found between the score of risk factors and the proportion of respondents reporting problems related to drinking such as diminished school performance, physical hazard, relational problems and current risky sexual behavior. CONCLUSION: Risk factors for adolescent alcohol misuse are cumulative and can be synthesized into an individual score correlated with the likeliness of misuse. A further indication of the validity of this score is its linear relationship with self-reported problems related to drinking.

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Background: Surgery has been previously reported to be necessary in up to 80% of Crohn's disease (CD) patients, and up to 65% of patients needed reoperation after 10 years. Prevention of surgery is therefore a particularly important issue for these patients. Treatment options are controversial and data on them are scarce. This study reports medical treatments and main clinical risk factors in CD patients having undergone one or several surgeries. Risks for being free from surgery were also assessed. Methods: Retrospective cohort study, using data from patients included in the Swiss IBD cohort study from November 2006 to July 2011. History of resective surgeries, clinical characteristics and drug regimens were collected through detailed medical records. Univariate and multivariate analyses for clinical and therapeutic factors were performed. Cox regression was made to estimate free-of-surgery risks for different phenotypes and drugs. Results: Out of 1138 CD patients in the cohort, 721 (63.4%) were free of surgery at inclusion; 203 (17.8%) had 1 surgery and 214 (18.8%) >1 surgery. Main risk factors for surgery were disease duration 5-10 years (OR=2.92; p<0.001) and >10 years (OR=10.45; p<0.001), as well as stricturing (OR=8.33; p<0.001) or fistulizing disease (OR=7.34; p<0.001). Risk factors for repeated surgery was disease duration >10 years (OR=2.55; p=0.006) or fistulizing disease (OR=3.79; p<0.001). At inclusion, 107 patients (25.7%) had at least one anti-TNF alpha, 168 (40.3%) at least one immunosuppressive agent, and 41 (9.8%) at least 5-ASA or antibiotics. 64 (15.3%) were not exposed to any medical treatment. Kaplan-Meier curves showed that the risk of being free of surgery was 65% after 10 years, 42% after 20 years and 23% after 40 years. Surgical risks were four resp. five time higher for fistulizing and stricturing phenotypes (Hazard ratio (HR) =4.2; p<0.001; resp. HR=4.7; p<0.001) compared to inflammatory phenotype. Surgical risk was 4 times lower (HR=0.27; p=0.063) in CD patients under anti-TNF alpha compared to those under other or no drugs. Conclusion: The risk of having resective surgery was confirmed to be very high for CD in our cohort. Duration of disease, fistulizing and stricturing disease pattern enhance the risk of surgery. Anti-TNF alpha tends to lower this risk.

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BACKGROUND: We investigated whether the free β-human chorionic gonadotropin (free β-hCG) would provide additional information to that provided by total hCG alone and thus be useful in future epidemiological studies relating hCG to maternal breast cancer risk. MATERIALS & METHODS: Cases (n = 159) and controls (n = 286) were a subset of our previous study within the Northern Sweden Maternity Cohort on total hCG during primiparous pregnancy and breast cancer risk. RESULTS: The associations between total hCG (hazard ratio: 0.79; 95% CI: 0.49-1.27), free β-hCG (hazard ratio: 0.85; 95% CI: 0.33-2.18) and maternal risk of breast cancer were very similar in all analyses and mutual adjustment for either one had minor effects on the risk estimates. CONCLUSION: In the absence of a reliable assay on intact hCG, total hCG alone can be used in epidemiological studies investigating hCG and breast cancer risk, as free β-hCG does not appear to provide any additional information.

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BACKGROUND: Resection of lung metastases (LM) from colorectal cancer (CRC) is increasingly performed with a curative intent. It is currently not possible to identify those CRC patients who may benefit the most from this surgical strategy. The aim of this study was to perform a systematic review of risk factors for survival after lung metastasectomy for CRC. METHODS: We performed a meta-analysis of series published between 2000 and 2011, which focused on surgical management of LM from CRC and included more than 40 patients each. Pooled hazard ratios (HR) were calculated by using random effects model for parameters considered as potential prognostic factors. RESULTS: Twenty-five studies including a total of 2925 patients were considered in this analysis. Four parameters were associated with poor survival: (1) a short disease-free interval between primary tumor resection and development of LM (HR 1.59, 95 % confidence interval [CI] 1.27-1.98); (2) multiple LM (HR 2.04, 95 % CI 1.72-2.41); (3) positive hilar and/or mediastinal lymph nodes (HR 1.65, 95 % CI 1.35-2.02); and (4) elevated prethoracotomy carcinoembryonic antigen (HR 1.91, 95 % CI 1.57-2.32). By comparison, a history of resected liver metastases (HR 1.22, 95 % CI 0.91-1.64) did not achieve statistical significance. CONCLUSIONS: Clinical variables associated with prolonged survival after surgery for LM in CRC patients include prolonged disease-free interval between primary tumor and metastatic spread, normal prethoracotomy carcinoembryonic antigen, absence of thoracic node involvement, and a single pulmonary lesion.

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BACKGROUND: The risk of end stage renal disease (ESRD) is increased among individuals with low income and in low income communities. However, few studies have examined the relation of both individual and community socioeconomic status (SES) with incident ESRD. METHODS: Among 23,314 U.S. adults in the population-based Reasons for Geographic and Racial Differences in Stroke study, we assessed participant differences across geospatially-linked categories of county poverty [outlier poverty, extremely high poverty, very high poverty, high poverty, neither (reference), high affluence and outlier affluence]. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were used to examine associations of annual household income and geospatially-linked county poverty measures with incident ESRD, while accounting for death as a competing event using the Fine and Gray method. RESULTS: There were 158 ESRD cases during follow-up. Incident ESRD rates were 178.8 per 100,000 person-years (105 py) in high poverty outlier counties and were 76.3 /105 py in affluent outlier counties, p trend = 0.06. In unadjusted competing risk models, persons residing in high poverty outlier counties had higher incidence of ESRD (which was not statistically significant) when compared to those persons residing in counties with neither high poverty nor affluence [hazard ratio (HR) 1.54, 95% Confidence Interval (CI) 0.75-3.20]. This association was markedly attenuated following adjustment for socio-demographic factors (age, sex, race, education, and income); HR 0.96, 95% CI 0.46-2.00. However, in the same adjusted model, income was independently associated with risk of ESRD [HR 3.75, 95% CI 1.62-8.64, comparing the < $20,000 income group to the > $75,000 group]. There were no statistically significant associations of county measures of poverty with incident ESRD, and no evidence of effect modification. CONCLUSIONS: In contrast to annual family income, geospatially-linked measures of county poverty have little relation with risk of ESRD. Efforts to mitigate socioeconomic disparities in kidney disease may be best appropriated at the individual level.

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BACKGROUND: Prevalence of hypertension in HIV infection is high, and information on blood pressure control in HIV-infected individuals is insufficient. We modeled blood pressure over time and the risk of cardiovascular events in hypertensive HIV-infected individuals. METHODS: All patients from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study with confirmed hypertension (systolic or diastolic blood pressure above 139 or 89 mm Hg on 2 consecutive visits and presence of at least 1 additional cardiovascular risk factor) between April 1, 2000 and March 31, 2011 were included. Patients with previous cardiovascular events, already on antihypertensive drugs, and pregnant women were excluded. Change in blood pressure over time was modeled using linear mixed models with repeated measurement. RESULTS: Hypertension was diagnosed in 2595 of 10,361 eligible patients. Of those, 869 initiated antihypertensive treatment. For patients treated for hypertension, we found a mean (95% confidence interval) decrease in systolic and diastolic blood pressure of -0.82 (-1.06 to -0.58) mm Hg and -0.89 (-1.05 to -0.73) mm Hg/yr, respectively. Factors associated with a decline in systolic blood pressure were baseline blood pressure, presence of chronic kidney disease, cardiovascular events, and the typical risk factors for cardiovascular disease. In patients with hypertension, increase in systolic blood pressure [(hazard ratio 1.18 (1.06 to 1.32) per 10 mm Hg increase], total cholesterol, smoking, age, and cumulative exposure to protease inhibitor-based and triple nucleoside regimens were associated with cardiovascular events. CONCLUSIONS: Insufficient control of hypertension was associated with increased risk of cardiovascular events indicating the need for improved management of hypertension in HIV-infected individuals.

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BACKGROUND: We did a randomised phase 3 trial assessing the benefit of addition of long-term androgen suppression with a luteinising-hormone-releasing hormone (LHRH) agonist to external irradiation in patients with prostate cancer with high metastatic risk. In this report, we present the 10-year results. METHODS: For this open-label randomised trial, eligible patients were younger than 80 years and had newly diagnosed histologically proven T1-2 prostatic adenocarcinoma with WHO histological grade 3 or T3-4 prostatic adenocarcinoma of any histological grade, and a WHO performance status of 0-2. Patients were randomly assigned (1:1) to receive radiotherapy alone or radiotherapy plus immediate androgen suppression. Treatment allocation was open label and used a minimisation algorithm with institution, clinical stage of the disease, results of pelvic-lymph-node dissection, and irradiation fields extension as minimisation factors. Patients were irradiated externally, once a day, 5 days a week, for 7 weeks to a total dose of 50 Gy to the whole pelvis, with an additional 20 Gy to the prostate and seminal vesicles. The LHRH agonist, goserelin acetate (3·6 mg subcutaneously every 4 weeks), was started on the first day of irradiation and continued for 3 years; cyproterone acetate (50 mg orally three times a day) was given for 1 month starting a week before the first goserelin injection. The primary endpoint was clinical disease-free survival. Analysis was by intention to treat. The trial is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00849082. FINDINGS: Between May 22, 1987, and Oct 31, 1995, 415 patients were randomly assigned to treatment groups and were included in the analysis (208 radiotherapy alone, 207 combined treatment). Median follow-up was 9·1 years (IQR 5·1-12·6). 10-year clinical disease-free survival was 22·7% (95% CI 16·3-29·7) in the radiotherapy-alone group and 47·7% (39·0-56·0) in the combined treatment group (hazard ratio [HR] 0·42, 95% CI 0·33-0·55, p<0·0001). 10-year overall survival was 39·8% (95% CI 31·9-47·5) in patients receiving radiotherapy alone and 58·1% (49·2-66·0) in those allocated combined treatment (HR 0·60, 95% CI 0·45-0·80, p=0·0004), and 10-year prostate-cancer mortality was 30·4% (95% CI 23·2-37·5) and 10·3% (5·1-15·4), respectively (HR 0·38, 95% CI 0·24-0·60, p<0·0001). No significant difference in cardiovascular mortality was noted between treatment groups both in patients who had cardiovascular problems at study entry (eight of 53 patients in the combined treatment group had a cardiovascular-related cause of death vs 11 of 63 in the radiotherapy group; p=0·60) and in those who did not (14 of 154 vs six of 145; p=0·25). Two fractures were reported in patients allocated combined treatment. INTERPRETATION: In patients with prostate cancer with high metastatic risk, immediate androgen suppression with an LHRH agonist given during and for 3 years after external irradiation improves 10-year disease-free and overall survival without increasing late cardiovascular toxicity.

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Background- An elevated resting heart rate is associated with rehospitalization for heart failure and is a modifiable risk factor in heart failure patients. We aimed to examine the association between resting heart rate and incident heart failure in a population-based cohort study of healthy adults without pre-existing overt heart disease. Methods and Results- We studied 4768 men and women aged ≥55 years from the population-based Rotterdam Study. We excluded participants with prevalent heart failure, coronary heart disease, pacemaker, atrial fibrillation, atrioventricular block, and those using β-blockers or calcium channel blockers. We used extended Cox models allowing for time-dependent variation of resting heart rate along follow-up. During a median of 14.6 years of follow-up, 656 participants developed heart failure. The risk of heart failure was higher in men with higher resting heart rate. For each increment of 10 beats per minute, the multivariable adjusted hazard ratios in men were 1.16 (95% confidence interval, 1.05-1.28; P=0.005) in the time-fixed heart rate model and 1.13 (95% confidence interval, 1.02-1.25; P=0.017) in the time-dependent heart rate model. The association could not be demonstrated in women (P for interaction=0.004). Censoring participants for incident coronary heart disease or using time-dependent models to account for the use of β-blockers or calcium channel blockers during follow-up did not alter the results. Conclusions- Baseline or persistent higher resting heart rate is an independent risk factor for the development of heart failure in healthy older men in the general population.

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OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the influence of genetic polymorphisms on the susceptibility to Candida colonization and intra-abdominal candidiasis, a blood culture-negative life-threatening infection in high-risk surgical ICU patients. DESIGN: Prospective observational cohort study. SETTING: Surgical ICUs from two University hospitals of the Fungal Infection Network of Switzerland. PATIENTS: Eighty-nine patients at high risk for intra-abdominal candidiasis (68 with recurrent gastrointestinal perforation and 21 with acute necrotizing pancreatitis). MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Eighteen single-nucleotide polymorphisms in 16 genes previously associated with development of fungal infections were analyzed from patient's DNA by using an Illumina Veracode genotyping platform. Candida colonization was defined by recovery of Candida species from at least one nonsterile site by twice weekly monitoring of cultures from oropharynx, stools, urine, skin, and/or respiratory tract. A corrected colonization index greater than or equal to 0.4 defined "heavy" colonization. Intra-abdominal candidiasis was defined by the presence of clinical symptoms and signs of peritonitis or intra-abdominal abscess and isolation of Candida species either in pure or mixed culture from intraoperatively collected abdominal samples. Single-nucleotide polymorphisms in three innate immune genes were associated with development of a Candida corrected colonization index greater than or equal to 0.4 (Toll-like receptor rs4986790, hazard ratio = 3.39; 95% CI, 1.45-7.93; p = 0.005) or occurrence of intra-abdominal candidiasis (tumor necrosis factor-α rs1800629, hazard ratio = 4.31; 95% CI, 1.85-10.1; p= 0.0007; β-defensin 1 rs1800972, hazard ratio = 3.21; 95% CI, 1.36-7.59; p = 0.008). CONCLUSION: We report a strong association between the promoter rs1800629 single-nucleotide polymorphism in tumor necrosis factor-α and an increased susceptibility to intra-abdominal candidiasis in a homogenous prospective cohort of high-risk surgical ICU patients. This finding highlights the relevance of the tumor necrosis factor-α functional polymorphism in immune response to fungal pathogens. Immunogenetic profiling in patients at clinical high risk followed by targeted antifungal interventions may improve the prevention or preemptive management of this life-threatening infection.

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Abstract This thesis presents three empirical studies in the field of health insurance in Switzerland. First we investigate the link between health insurance coverage and health care expenditures. We use claims data for over 60 000 adult individuals covered by a major Swiss Health Insurance Fund, followed for four years; the data show a strong positive correlation between coverage and expenditures. Two methods are developed and estimated in order to separate selection effects (due to individual choice of coverage) and incentive effects ("ex post moral hazard"). The first method uses the comparison between inpatient and outpatient expenditures to identify both effects and we conclude that both selection and incentive effects are significantly present in our data. The second method is based on a structural model of joint demand of health care and health insurance and makes the most of the change in the marginal cost of health care to identify selection and incentive effects. We conclude that the correlation between insurance coverage and health care expenditures may be decomposed into the two effects: 75% may be attributed to selection, and 25 % to incentive effects. Moreover, we estimate that a decrease in the coinsurance rate from 100% to 10% increases the marginal demand for health care by about 90% and from 100% to 0% by about 150%. Secondly, having shown that selection and incentive effects exist in the Swiss health insurance market, we present the consequence of this result in the context of risk adjustment. We show that if individuals choose their insurance coverage in function of their health status (selection effect), the optimal compensations should be function of the se- lection and incentive effects. Therefore, a risk adjustment mechanism which ignores these effects, as it is the case presently in Switzerland, will miss his main goal to eliminate incentives for sickness funds to select risks. Using a simplified model, we show that the optimal compensations have to take into account the distribution of risks through the insurance plans in case of self-selection in order to avoid incentives to select risks.Then, we apply our propositions to Swiss data and propose a simple econometric procedure to control for self-selection in the estimation of the risk adjustment formula in order to compute the optimal compensations.

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A high heart rate (HR) predicts future cardiovascular events. We explored the predictive value of HR in patients with high-risk hypertension and examined whether blood pressure reduction modifies this association. The participants were 15,193 patients with hypertension enrolled in the Valsartan Antihypertensive Long-term Use Evaluation (VALUE) trial and followed up for 5 years. The HR was assessed from electrocardiographic recordings obtained annually throughout the study period. The primary end point was the interval to cardiac events. After adjustment for confounders, the hazard ratio of the composite cardiac primary end point for a 10-beats/min of the baseline HR increment was 1.16 (95% confidence interval 1.12 to 1.20). Compared to the lowest HR quintile, the adjusted hazard ratio in the highest quintile was 1.73 (95% confidence interval 1.46 to 2.04). Compared to the pooled lower quintiles of baseline HR, the annual incidence of primary end point in the top baseline quintile was greater in each of the 5 study years (all p <0.05). The adjusted hazard ratio for the primary end point in the highest in-trial HR heart rate quintile versus the lowest quintile was 1.53 (95% confidence interval 1.26 to 1.85). The incidence of primary end points in the highest in-trial HR group compared to the pooled 4 lower quintiles was 53% greater in patients with well-controlled blood pressure (p <0.001) and 34% greater in those with uncontrolled blood pressure (p = 0.002). In conclusion, an increased HR is a long-term predictor of cardiovascular events in patients with high-risk hypertension. This effect was not modified by good blood pressure control. It is not yet known whether a therapeutic reduction of HR would improve cardiovascular prognosis.

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BACKGROUND: The risk of falls is the most commonly cited reason for not providing oral anticoagulation, although the risk of bleeding associated with falls on oral anticoagulants is still debated. We aimed to evaluate whether patients on oral anticoagulation with high falls risk have an increased risk of major bleeding. METHODS: We prospectively studied consecutive adult medical patients who were discharged on oral anticoagulants. The outcome was the time to a first major bleed within a 12-month follow-up period adjusted for age, sex, alcohol abuse, number of drugs, concomitant treatment with antiplatelet agents, and history of stroke or transient ischemic attack. RESULTS: Among the 515 enrolled patients, 35 patients had a first major bleed during follow-up (incidence rate: 7.5 per 100 patient-years). Overall, 308 patients (59.8%) were at high risk of falls, and these patients had a nonsignificantly higher crude incidence rate of major bleeding than patients at low risk of falls (8.0 vs 6.8 per 100 patient-years, P=.64). In multivariate analysis, a high falls risk was not statistically significantly associated with the risk of a major bleed (hazard ratio 1.09; 95% confidence interval, 0.54-2.21). Overall, only 3 major bleeds occurred directly after a fall (incidence rate: 0.6 per 100 patient-years). CONCLUSIONS: In this prospective cohort, patients on oral anticoagulants at high risk of falls did not have a significantly increased risk of major bleeds. These findings suggest that being at risk of falls is not a valid reason to avoid oral anticoagulants in medical patients.

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The safe and responsible development of engineered nanomaterials (ENM), nanotechnology-based materials and products, together with the definition of regulatory measures and implementation of "nano"-legislation in Europe require a widely supported scientific basis and sufficient high quality data upon which to base decisions. At the very core of such a scientific basis is a general agreement on key issues related to risk assessment of ENMs which encompass the key parameters to characterise ENMs, appropriate methods of analysis and best approach to express the effect of ENMs in widely accepted dose response toxicity tests. The following major conclusions were drawn: Due to high batch variability of ENMs characteristics of commercially available and to a lesser degree laboratory made ENMs it is not possible to make general statements regarding the toxicity resulting from exposure to ENMs. 1) Concomitant with using the OECD priority list of ENMs, other criteria for selection of ENMs like relevance for mechanistic (scientific) studies or risk assessment-based studies, widespread availability (and thus high expected volumes of use) or consumer concern (route of consumer exposure depending on application) could be helpful. The OECD priority list is focussing on validity of OECD tests. Therefore source material will be first in scope for testing. However for risk assessment it is much more relevant to have toxicity data from material as present in products/matrices to which men and environment are be exposed. 2) For most, if not all characteristics of ENMs, standardized methods analytical methods, though not necessarily validated, are available. Generally these methods are only able to determine one single characteristic and some of them can be rather expensive. Practically, it is currently not feasible to fully characterise ENMs. Many techniques that are available to measure the same nanomaterial characteristic produce contrasting results (e.g. reported sizes of ENMs). It was recommended that at least two complementary techniques should be employed to determine a metric of ENMs. The first great challenge is to prioritise metrics which are relevant in the assessment of biological dose response relations and to develop analytical methods for characterising ENMs in biological matrices. It was generally agreed that one metric is not sufficient to describe fully ENMs. 3) Characterisation of ENMs in biological matrices starts with sample preparation. It was concluded that there currently is no standard approach/protocol for sample preparation to control agglomeration/aggregation and (re)dispersion. It was recommended harmonization should be initiated and that exchange of protocols should take place. The precise methods used to disperse ENMs should be specifically, yet succinctly described within the experimental section of a publication. 4) ENMs need to be characterised in the matrix as it is presented to the test system (in vitro/ in vivo). 5) Alternative approaches (e.g. biological or in silico systems) for the characterisation of ENMS are simply not possible with the current knowledge. Contributors: Iseult Lynch, Hans Marvin, Kenneth Dawson, Markus Berges, Diane Braguer, Hugh J. Byrne, Alan Casey, Gordon Chambers, Martin Clift, Giuliano Elia1, Teresa F. Fernandes, Lise Fjellsbø, Peter Hatto, Lucienne Juillerat, Christoph Klein, Wolfgang Kreyling, Carmen Nickel1, and Vicki Stone.

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OBJECTIVES: The goal of this study was to determine whether subclinical thyroid dysfunction was associated with incident heart failure (HF) and echocardiogram abnormalities. BACKGROUND: Subclinical hypothyroidism and hyperthyroidism have been associated with cardiac dysfunction. However, long-term data on the risk of HF are limited. METHODS: We studied 3,044 adults>or=65 years of age who initially were free of HF in the Cardiovascular Health Study. We compared adjudicated HF events over a mean 12-year follow-up and changes in cardiac function over the course of 5 years among euthyroid participants, those with subclinical hypothyroidism (subdivided by thyroid-stimulating hormone [TSH] levels: 4.5 to 9.9, >or=10.0 mU/l), and those with subclinical hyperthyroidism. RESULTS: Over the course of 12 years, 736 participants developed HF events. Participants with TSH>or=10.0 mU/l had a greater incidence of HF compared with euthyroid participants (41.7 vs. 22.9 per 1,000 person years, p=0.01; adjusted hazard ratio: 1.88; 95% confidence interval: 1.05 to 3.34). Baseline peak E velocity, which is an echocardiographic measurement of diastolic function associated with incident HF in the CHS cohort, was greater in those patients with TSH>or=10.0 mU/l compared with euthyroid participants (0.80 m/s vs. 0.72 m/s, p=0.002). Over the course of 5 years, left ventricular mass increased among those with TSH>or=10.0 mU/l, but other echocardiographic measurements were unchanged. Those patients with TSH 4.5 to 9.9 mU/l or with subclinical hyperthyroidism had no increase in risk of HF. CONCLUSIONS: Compared with euthyroid older adults, those adults with TSH>or=10.0 mU/l have a moderately increased risk of HF and alterations in cardiac function but not older adults with TSH<10.0 mU/l. Clinical trials should assess whether the risk of HF might be ameliorated by thyroxine replacement in individuals with TSH>or=10.0 mU/l.