98 resultados para value-at-risk (VaR)


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It is well documented that reducing blood pressure (BP) in hypertensive individuals reduces the risk of cardiovascular (CV) events. Despite this, many patients with hypertension remain untreated or inadequately treated, and fail to reach the recommended BP goals. Suboptimal BP control, whilst arising from multiple causes, is often due to poor patient compliance and/or persistence, and results in a significant health and economic burden on society. The use of fixed-dose combinations (FDCs) for the treatment of hypertension has the potential to increase patient compliance and persistence. When compared with antihypertensive monotherapies, FDCs may also offer equivalent or better efficacy, and the same or improved tolerability. As a result, FDCs have the potential to reduce both the CV event rates and the non-drug healthcare costs associated with hypertension. When FDCs are adopted for the treatment of hypertension, issues relating to copayment, formulary restrictions and therapeutic reference pricing must be addressed.

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Blood pressures measured casually by a doctor often differ considerably from those recorded during everyday activities away from the medical environment. In the present study, we compared office and ambulatory recorded pressures in 475 consecutive untreated patients diagnosed hypertensive by physicians. Blood pressure monitored non-invasively during the day was, on average 15/7 mmHg lower than the corresponding office pressures. The difference between office and ambulatory recorded pressure tended to be greatest in those patients with the highest office blood pressure levels, although the relationship between the two types of measurement was too weak (r = 0.50 and 0.38 for systolic and diastolic pressure, respectively) to have any predictive value in the individual patient. Office blood pressures were at least 10 mmHg higher than ambulatory pressures in 62% of patients for systolic and 42% for diastolic pressure. Blood pressure levels recorded during ambulatory monitoring were higher than in the doctor's office for 18% of patients for systolic and 22% for diastolic pressure. Among patients with systolic pressures of between 161 and 180 mmHg or diastolic pressures between 96 and 105 mmHg when facing a doctor, 27 and 37% respectively, showed markedly lower systolic (less than 140 mmHg) or diastolic (less than 90 mmHg) ambulatory recorded pressures. These data therefore indicate that ambulatory blood pressure monitoring may help to identify those truly hypertensive patients who are most likely to benefit from antihypertensive therapy.

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AIM: To determine the long-term prognostic value of SPECT myocardial perfusion imaging (MPI) for the occurrence of cardiovascular events in diabetic patients. PATIENTS, METHODS: SPECT MPI of 210 consecutive Caucasian diabetic patients were analysed using Kaplan-Meier event-free survival curves and independent predictors were determined by Cox multivariate analyses. RESULTS: Follow-up was complete in 200 (95%) patients with a median period of 3.0 years (0.8-5.0). The population was composed of 114 (57%) men, age 65 +/- 10 years, 181 (90.5%) type 2 diabetes mellitus, 50 (25%) with a history of coronary artery disease (CAD) and 98 (49%) presenting chest pain prior to MPI. The prevalence of abnormal MPI was 58%. Patients with a normal MPI had neither cardiac death, nor myocardial infarction, independently of a history of coronary artery disease or chest pain. Among the independent predictors of cardiac death and myocardial infarction, the strongest was abnormal MPI (p < 0.0001), followed by history of CAD (Hazard Ratio (HR) = 15.9; p = 0.0001), diabetic retinopathy (HR = 10.0; p = 0.001) and inability to exercise (HR = 7.7; p = 0.02). Patients with normal MPI had a low revascularisation rate of 2.4% during the follow-up period. Compared to normal MPI, cardiovascular events increased 5.2 fold for reversible defects, 8.5 fold for fixed defects and 20.1 fold for the association of both defects. CONCLUSION: Diabetic patients with normal MPI had an excellent prognosis independently of history of CAD. On the opposite, an abnormal MPI led to a >5-fold increase in cardiovascular events. This emphasizes the value of SPECT MPI in predicting and risk-stratifying cardiovascular events in diabetic patients.

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Commentaire de: Gaziano TA, Young CR, Fitzmaurice G, Atwood S, Gaziano JM. Laboratory-based versus non-laboratory-based method for assessment of cardiovascular disease risk: the NHANES I Follow-up Study cohort. Lancet. 2008;371(9616):923-31. PMID: 18342687

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CONTEXT: Type 2 diabetes is associated with increased fracture risk but paradoxically greater bone mineral density (BMD). Trabecular bone score (TBS) is derived from the texture of the spine dual x-ray absorptiometry (DXA) image and is related to bone microarchitecture and fracture risk, providing information independent of BMD. OBJECTIVE: This study evaluated the ability of lumbar spine TBS to account for increased fracture risk in diabetes. DESIGN AND SETTING: We performed a retrospective cohort study using BMD results from a large clinical registry for the province of Manitoba, Canada. Patients: We included 29,407 women 50 years old and older with baseline DXA examinations, among whom 2356 had diagnosed diabetes. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Lumbar spine TBS was derived for each spine DXA examination blinded to clinical parameters and outcomes. Health service records were assessed for incident nontraumatic major osteoporotic fractures (mean follow-up 4.7 years). RESULTS: Diabetes was associated with higher BMD at all sites but lower lumbar spine TBS in unadjusted and adjusted models (all P < .001). The adjusted odds ratio (aOR) for a measurement in the lowest vs the highest tertile was less than 1 for BMD (all P < .001) but was increased for lumbar spine TBS [aOR 2.61, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.30-2.97]. Major osteoporotic fractures were identified in 175 women (7.4%) with and 1493 (5.5%) without diabetes (P < .001). Lumbar spine TBS was a BMD-independent predictor of fracture and predicted fractures in those with diabetes (adjusted hazard ratio 1.27, 95% CI 1.10-1.46) and without diabetes (hazard ratio 1.31, 95% CI 1.24-1.38). The effect of diabetes on fracture was reduced when lumbar spine TBS was added to a prediction model but was paradoxically increased from adding BMD measurements. CONCLUSIONS: Lumbar spine TBS predicts osteoporotic fractures in those with diabetes, and captures a larger portion of the diabetes-associated fracture risk than BMD.

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Rapport de synthèse : Les maladies cardio-vasculaires constituent les causes principales causes de morbidité et de mortalité dans les pays industrialisés. Des études épidémiologiques ont démontré l'implication de facteurs de risques comme l'hypertension, l'hypercholestérolémie, l'obésité abdominale, le diabète et le tabagisme dans le développement des affections cardiovasculaires comme l'infarctus du myocarde ou l'accident vasculaire cérébral. De larges études génétiques cas-contrôle ont contribué modestement à l'identification de gènes de susceptibilité au développement de ces FRCV. Une étude populationnelle offre par contre l'avantage d'effectuer des études associatives pour des traits phénotypiques continus correctement mesurés et aussi pour des traits de catégories utilisant des protocoles d'étude cas-contrôle très discordants. ~ Elle permet l'exploration des déterminants génétiques comme par exemple le syndrome métabolique. Cette approche permet également de procéder à des analyses de séquençage sur l'ADN des participants chez qui un trait phénotypique spécifique est étudié mais distribué de manière opposée. A titre d'exemple, le séquençage de l'ADN de participants à taux très élevé d'HDL-cholestérol versus très bas de ce marqueur lipidique permet d'identifier des variants génétiques rares localisés sur les parties codantes de gènes spécifiques associés aux dyslipidémies. Pour ce faire, nous avons recruté 6'188 personnes âgées de 35 à 75 ans, d'origine caucasienne et résidant en ville de Lausanne (3251 femmes et 2937 hommes). L'obtention d'un tel collectif a nécessité l'échantillonnage aléatoire de quelque 19'830 personnes de cette tranche d'âge. Les participants ont fait l'objet d'une anamnèse approfondie et d'un examen clinique. Le bilan était complété par une prise de sang pour le dosage de paramètres biologiques ainsi qu'une analyse .génétique. Cette dernière a été effectuée après extraction d'ADN au moyen d'une puce Affimetrix qui évalue la présence de quelques 500'000 SNPs. Les données récoltées lors de cette étude dévoilent que l'obésité (index de masse corporelle > 30 kg/m2), le tabagisme, l'hypertension (pression artérielle >_ 140/90 mmHg et/ou hypertension traitée), une dyslipidémie (LDL cholestérol élevé et/ou HDL cholestérol bas et/ou triglycéride élevé) et le diabète (glucose à jeun >_ 7 mmol/l et/ou traitement) affectent respectivement 947 (15,7%), 1673 (27%), 2268 (36,7%), 2113 (34,2%) et 407 (6,6%) participants. La prévalence de ces FRCV est plus marquée chez les hommes que chez les femmes. Dans les deux genres les prévalences de l'obésité, de l'hypertension et du diabète augmentent drastiquement avec l'âge. En conclusion la prévalence des FRCV est élevée au sein d'une population représentative de Lausanne âgée de 35 à 75 ans. A l'avenir, l'étude CoLaus constituera par la richesse de ses données phénotypiques et génétiques, une source unique pour investiguer l'épidémiologie et l'identification de gènes associés à ces FRCV.

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Introduction: To determine the metabolic effect of teriparatide (TPTD) on bone, 99mTc-MDP skeletal plasma clearance was measured in postmenopausal women with osteoporosis treated with TPTD 20 μg/day. Methods: Ten postmenopausal women with osteoporosis had radionuclide bone scans at baseline, 3, and 18 months after starting TPTD 20 μg/day and after 6 months off therapy. Participants were injected with 600 MBq 99mTc- MDP and whole body bone scans acquired at 10 min, 1, 2, 3, and 4 h. Multiple blood samples were taken between 5 min and 4 h and free 99mTc-MDP measured using ultrafiltration. 99mTc-MDP plasma clearance (Kbone) was evaluated using the Patlak plot method. Regional differences in Kbone were studied by measuring the whole skeleton and subregions. Serum procollagen type I Nterminal propeptide (PINP), bone-specific alkaline phosphatase (BSAP), and urinary N-terminal telopeptide (NTX) were measured at each visit.Discussion: The median increase from baseline in whole skeleton Kbone was 22% (P=0.004) at 3 months and 34% (P= 0.002) at 18 months, decreasing to 0.7% after 6 months off therapy. In subregions, Kbone value increases were statistically significant at 3 months and in all subregions except the pelvis at 18 months. After 6 months off therapy, subregional Kbone values also returned toward baseline. Bone markers increases from baseline were statistically significant at 3 and 18 months (BSAP, 15% and 36%; PINP, 137% and 192%; NTX, 109% and 125%). After 6 months off therapy, PINP and NTX values had declined, though remained above baseline (BSAP, −3%; PINP, 43%; NTX, 56%). Increased Kbone values in the whole body and lower extremities were correlated with increases in most bone markers at 3 and 18 months. Increased skeletal uptake of 99mTc-MDP during treatment with TPTD is indicative of increased bone formation and is supported by increases in bone turnover markers.Conclusion: Changes in Kbone and skeletal uptake measured by radionuclide bone scans in patients taking TPTD are the result of metabolic activity of the drug. These data may provide physicians with useful insights when interpreting bone scan results in this population.

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Abstract: To have an added value over BMD, a CRF of osteoporotic fracture must be predictable of the fracture, independent of BMD, reversible and quantifiable. Many major recognized CRF exist.Out of these factorsmany of themare indirect factor of bone quality. TBS predicts fracture independently of BMD as demonstrated from previous studies. The aim of the study is to verify if TBS can be considered as a major CRF of osteoporotic fracture. Existing validated datasets of Caucasian women were analyzed. These datasets stem from different studies performed by the authors of this report or provided to our group. However, the level of evidence of these studies will vary. Thus, the different datasets were weighted differently according to their design. This meta-like analysis involves more than 32000 women (≥50 years) with 2000 osteoporotic fractures from two prospective studies (OFELY&MANITOBA) and 7 crosssectional studies. Weighted relative risk (RR) for TBS was expressed for each decrease of one standard deviation as well as per tertile difference (TBS=1.300 and 1.200) and compared with those obtained for the major CRF included in FRAX®. Overall TBS RR obtained (adjusted for age) was 1.79 [95%CI-1.37-2.37]. For all women combined, RR for fracture for the lowest comparedwith themiddle TBS tertilewas 1.55[1.46- 1.68] and for the lowest compared with the highest TBS tertile was 2.8[2.70-3.00]. TBS is comparable to most of the major CRF (Fig 1) and thus could be used as one of them. Further studies have to be conducted to confirm these first findings.

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We investigated the association of trabecular bone score (TBS) with microarchitecture and mechanical behavior of human lumbar vertebrae. We found that TBS reflects vertebral trabecular microarchitecture and is an independent predictor of vertebral mechanics. However, the addition of TBS to areal BMD (aBMD) did not significantly improve prediction of vertebral strength. INTRODUCTION: The trabecular bone score (TBS) is a gray-level measure of texture using a modified experimental variogram which can be extracted from dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) images. The current study aimed to confirm whether TBS is associated with trabecular microarchitecture and mechanics of human lumbar vertebrae, and if its combination with BMD improves prediction of fracture risk. METHODS: Lumbar vertebrae (L3) were harvested fresh from 16 donors. The anteroposterior and lateral bone mineral content (BMC) and areal BMD (aBMD) of the vertebral body were measured using DXA; then, the TBS was extracted using TBS iNsight software (Medimaps SA, France). The trabecular bone volume (Tb.BV/tissue volume, TV), trabecular thickness (Tb.Th), degree of anisotropy, and structure model index (SMI) were measured using microcomputed tomography. Quasi-static uniaxial compressive testing was performed on L3 vertebral bodies to assess failure load and stiffness. RESULTS: The TBS was significantly correlated to Tb.BV/TV and SMI (râeuro0/00=âeuro0/000.58 and -0.62; pâeuro0/00=âeuro0/000.02, 0.01), but not related to BMC and BMD. TBS was significantly correlated with stiffness (râeuro0/00=âeuro0/000.64; pâeuro0/00=âeuro0/000.007), independently of bone mass. Using stepwise multiple regression models, we failed to demonstrate that the combination of BMD and TBS was better at explaining mechanical behavior than either variable alone. However, the combination TBS, Tb.Th, and BMC did perform better than each parameter alone, explaining 79 % of the variability in stiffness. CONCLUSIONS: In our study, TBS was associated with microarchitecture parameters and with vertebral mechanical behavior, but TBS did not improve prediction of vertebral biomechanical properties in addition to aBMD.

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Introduction: Low cardiac output syndrome is frequent in childrenafter heart surgery for congenital heart disease and may result in pooroutcome and increased morbidity. In the adult population, preoperativebrain natriuretic peptide (BNP) was shown to be predictive of postoperative complications. In children, the value of preoperative BNP onpostoperative outcome is not so clear. The aim of this study was todetermine the predictive value of preoperative BNP on postoperativeoutcome and low cardiac output syndrome in children after heartsurgery for congenital heart disease.Methods: We examined, retrospectively, the postoperative course of97 pediatric patients (mean age 3.7 years, range 0-14 years old) whounderwent heart surgery in a tertiary care pediatric intensive caresetting. NTproBNP was measured preoperatively in all patients(median 412 pg/ml, range 12-35'000 pg/ml). Patients were divided intothree groups according to their NTproBNP levels (group 1: 0-300 pg/ml, group 2: 300-600 pg/ml, group 3: >600 pg/ml) and then,correlations with postoperative outcomes were examined.Results: We found that patients with a high preoperative BNP requiredmore frequently prolonged (>2 days) mechanical ventilation (33%vs 40% vs 61%, p = 0.045) and stayed more frequently longer than6 days in the intensive care unit (42% vs 50% vs 71%, p = 0.03).However, high preoperative BNP was not correlated with occurrenceof low cardiac output syndrome.Conclusion: Preoperative BNP cannot be used, in children, as areliable and sole predictor of postoperative low cardiac outputsyndrome. However it may help identify, before surgery, those patientsat risk of having a difficult postoperative course.

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BACKGROUND: Prognosis prediction for resected primary colon cancer is based on the T-stage Node Metastasis (TNM) staging system. We investigated if four well-documented gene expression risk scores can improve patient stratification. METHODS: Microarray-based versions of risk-scores were applied to a large independent cohort of 688 stage II/III tumors from the PETACC-3 trial. Prognostic value for relapse-free survival (RFS), survival after relapse (SAR), and overall survival (OS) was assessed by regression analysis. To assess improvement over a reference, prognostic model was assessed with the area under curve (AUC) of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. All statistical tests were two-sided, except the AUC increase. RESULTS: All four risk scores (RSs) showed a statistically significant association (single-test, P < .0167) with OS or RFS in univariate models, but with HRs below 1.38 per interquartile range. Three scores were predictors of shorter RFS, one of shorter SAR. Each RS could only marginally improve an RFS or OS model with the known factors T-stage, N-stage, and microsatellite instability (MSI) status (AUC gains < 0.025 units). The pairwise interscore discordance was never high (maximal Spearman correlation = 0.563) A combined score showed a trend to higher prognostic value and higher AUC increase for OS (HR = 1.74, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.44 to 2.10, P < .001, AUC from 0.6918 to 0.7321) and RFS (HR = 1.56, 95% CI = 1.33 to 1.84, P < .001, AUC from 0.6723 to 0.6945) than any single score. CONCLUSIONS: The four tested gene expression-based risk scores provide prognostic information but contribute only marginally to improving models based on established risk factors. A combination of the risk scores might provide more robust information. Predictors of RFS and SAR might need to be different.

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Summary Background: We previously derived a clinical prognostic algorithm to identify patients with pulmonary embolism (PE) who are at low-risk of short-term mortality who could be safely discharged early or treated entirely in an outpatient setting. Objectives: To externally validate the clinical prognostic algorithm in an independent patient sample. Methods: We validated the algorithm in 983 consecutive patients prospectively diagnosed with PE at an emergency department of a university hospital. Patients with none of the algorithm's 10 prognostic variables (age >/= 70 years, cancer, heart failure, chronic lung disease, chronic renal disease, cerebrovascular disease, pulse >/= 110/min., systolic blood pressure < 100 mm Hg, oxygen saturation < 90%, and altered mental status) at baseline were defined as low-risk. We compared 30-day overall mortality among low-risk patients based on the algorithm between the validation and the original derivation sample. We also assessed the rate of PE-related and bleeding-related mortality among low-risk patients. Results: Overall, the algorithm classified 16.3% of patients with PE as low-risk. Mortality at 30 days was 1.9% among low-risk patients and did not differ between the validation and the original derivation sample. Among low-risk patients, only 0.6% died from definite or possible PE, and 0% died from bleeding. Conclusions: This study validates an easy-to-use, clinical prognostic algorithm for PE that accurately identifies patients with PE who are at low-risk of short-term mortality. Low-risk patients based on our algorithm are potential candidates for less costly outpatient treatment.

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We prospectively compared the diagnostic value of C-reactive protein (CRP) and white blood cell counts for detection of neonatal septicaemia. Sensitivity and specifity in receiver operating characteristics, and positive and negative predictive value of CRP and white blood cell count were compared in 195 critically ill preterm and term newborns clinically suspected of infection. Blood cultures were positive in 33 cases. During the first 3 days after birth CRP elevation (sensitivity 75%, specifity 86%), leukopenia (67%/90%), neutropenia (78%/80%) and immature to total neutrophil count (I/T) ratio (78%/73%) were good diagnostic parameters, as opposed to band forms with absolute count (84%/66%) or percentage (79%/71%), thrombocytopenia (65%/57%) and toxic granulations (44%/94%). Beyond 3 days of age elevated CRP (88%/87%) was the best parameter. Increased total (84%/66%) or percentage band count (79%/71%) were also useful. Leukocytosis (74%/56%), increased neutrophils (67%/65%), I/T ratio (79%/47%), thrombocytopenia (65%/57%) and toxic granulations had a low specifity. The positive predictive value of CRP was 32% before and 37% after 3 days of age, that of leukopenia was 37% in the first 3 days. CONCLUSION: During the first 3 days of life CRP, leukopenia and neutropenia were comparably good tests while after 3 days of life CRP was the best single test in early detection of neonatal septicaemia. Serial CRP estimations confirm the diagnosis, monitor the course of infection and the efficacy of antibiotic treatment.

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Postoperative delirium after cardiac surgery is associated with increased morbidity and mortality as well as prolonged stay in both the intensive care unit and the hospital. The authors sought to identify modifiable risk factors associated with the development of postoperative delirium in elderly patients after elective cardiac surgery in order to be able to design follow-up studies aimed at the prevention of delirium by optimizing perioperative management. A post hoc analysis of data from patients enrolled in a randomized controlled trial was performed. A single university hospital. One hundred thirteen patients aged 65 or older undergoing elective cardiac surgery with cardiopulmonary bypass. None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAINS RESULTS: Screening for delirium was performed using the Confusion Assessment Method (CAM) on the first 6 postoperative days. A multivariable logistic regression model was developed to identify significant risk factors and to control for confounders. Delirium developed in 35 of 113 patients (30%). The multivariable model showed the maximum value of C-reactive protein measured postoperatively, the dose of fentanyl per kilogram of body weight administered intraoperatively, and the duration of mechanical ventilation to be independently associated with delirium. In this post hoc analysis, larger doses of fentanyl administered intraoperatively and longer duration of mechanical ventilation were associated with postoperative delirium in the elderly after cardiac surgery. Prospective randomized trials should be performed to test the hypotheses that a reduced dose of fentanyl administered intraoperatively, the use of a different opioid, or weaning protocols aimed at early extubation prevent delirium in these patients.