Three Essays on the Formation and Impact of Economic Policy

Introduction In my thesis I argue that economic policy is all about economics and politics. Consequently, analysing and understanding economic policy ideally has at least two parts. The economics part, which is centered around the expected impact of a specific policy on the real economy both in terms of efficiency and equity. The insights of this part point into which direction the fine-tuning of economic policies should go. However, fine-tuning of economic policies will be most likely subject to political constraints. That is why, in the politics part, a much better understanding can be gained by taking into account how the incentives of politicians and special interest groups as well as the role played by different institutional features affect the formation of economic policies. The first part and chapter of my thesis concentrates on the efficiency-related impact of economic policies: how does corporate income taxation in general, and corporate income tax progressivity in specific, affect the creation of new firms? Reduced progressivity and flat-rate taxes are in vogue. By 2009, 22 countries are operating flat-rate income tax systems, as do 7 US states and 14 Swiss cantons (for corporate income only). Tax reform proposals in the spirit of the "flat tax" model typically aim to reduce three parameters: the average tax burden, the progressivity of the tax schedule, and the complexity of the tax code. In joint work, Marius Brülhart and I explore the implications of changes in these three parameters on entrepreneurial activity, measured by counts of firm births in a panel of Swiss municipalities. Our results show that lower average tax rates and reduced complexity of the tax code promote firm births. Controlling for these effects, reduced progressivity inhibits firm births. Our reading of these results is that tax progressivity has an insurance effect that facilitates entrepreneurial risk taking. The positive effects of lower tax levels and reduced complexity are estimated to be significantly stronger than the negative effect of reduced progressivity. To the extent that firm births reflect desirable entrepreneurial dynamism, it is not the flattening of tax schedules that is key to successful tax reforms, but the lowering of average tax burdens and the simplification of tax codes. Flatness per se is of secondary importance and even appears to be detrimental to firm births. The second part of my thesis, which corresponds to the second and third chapter, concentrates on how economic policies are formed. By the nature of the analysis, these two chapters draw on a broader literature than the first chapter. Both economists and political scientists have done extensive research on how economic policies are formed. Thereby, researchers in both disciplines have recognised the importance of special interest groups trying to influence policy-making through various channels. In general, economists base their analysis on a formal and microeconomically founded approach, while abstracting from institutional details. In contrast, political scientists' frameworks are generally richer in terms of institutional features but lack the theoretical rigour of economists' approaches. I start from the economist's point of view. However, I try to borrow as much as possible from the findings of political science to gain a better understanding of how economic policies are formed in reality. In the second chapter, I take a theoretical approach and focus on the institutional policy framework to explore how interactions between different political institutions affect the outcome of trade policy in presence of special interest groups' lobbying. Standard political economy theory treats the government as a single institutional actor which sets tariffs by trading off social welfare against contributions from special interest groups seeking industry-specific protection from imports. However, these models lack important (institutional) features of reality. That is why, in my model, I split up the government into a legislative and executive branch which can both be lobbied by special interest groups. Furthermore, the legislative has the option to delegate its trade policy authority to the executive. I allow the executive to compensate the legislative in exchange for delegation. Despite ample anecdotal evidence, bargaining over delegation of trade policy authority has not yet been formally modelled in the literature. I show that delegation has an impact on policy formation in that it leads to lower equilibrium tariffs compared to a standard model without delegation. I also show that delegation will only take place if the lobby is not strong enough to prevent it. Furthermore, the option to delegate increases the bargaining power of the legislative at the expense of the lobbies. Therefore, the findings of this model can shed a light on why the U.S. Congress often practices delegation to the executive. In the final chapter of my thesis, my coauthor, Antonio Fidalgo, and I take a narrower approach and focus on the individual politician level of policy-making to explore how connections to private firms and networks within parliament affect individual politicians' decision-making. Theories in the spirit of the model of the second chapter show how campaign contributions from lobbies to politicians can influence economic policies. There exists an abundant empirical literature that analyses ties between firms and politicians based on campaign contributions. However, the evidence on the impact of campaign contributions is mixed, at best. In our paper, we analyse an alternative channel of influence in the shape of personal connections between politicians and firms through board membership. We identify a direct effect of board membership on individual politicians' voting behaviour and an indirect leverage effect when politicians with board connections influence non-connected peers. We assess the importance of these two effects using a vote in the Swiss parliament on a government bailout of the national airline, Swissair, in 2001, which serves as a natural experiment. We find that both the direct effect of connections to firms and the indirect leverage effect had a strong and positive impact on the probability that a politician supported the government bailout.

Stability and change in party preferences.

This article analyses stability and volatility of party preferences using data from the Swiss Household-Panel (SHP), which, for the first time, allow studying transitions and stability of voters over several years in Switzerland. Analyses cover the years 1999- 2007 and systematically distinguish changes between party blocks and changes within party blocks. The first part looks at different patterns of change, which show relatively high volatility. The second part tests several theories on causes of such changes applying a multinomial random-effects model. Results show that party preferences stabilise with their duration and with age and that the electoral cycle, political sophistication, socio-structural predispositions, the household-context as well as party size and the number of parties each explain part of electoral volatility. Different results for withinand between party-block changes underlie the importance of that differentiation.

Peroxisome proliferator-activated receptors beta/delta: emerging roles for a previously neglected third family member.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Peroxisome proliferator-activated receptors alpha, beta/delta and gamma are members of the nuclear receptor superfamily. They mediate the effects of fatty acids and their derivatives at the transcriptional level, and are considered to be lipid sensors that participate in the regulation of energy homeostasis. Compared with the alpha and gamma peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor isotypes, peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor beta functions have long remained an enigma. In this review, we focus on emerging knowledge about peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor beta activation and roles. RECENT FINDINGS: We review recent data that suggest key roles in basic cell functions, such as proliferation, differentiation and survival, and in embryonic development and lipid metabolism in peripheral tissues. SUMMARY: The newly unveiled roles of peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor beta in important basic cell functions certainly justify a further exploration of its potential as a therapeutic target in pathologies such as metabolic syndrome X or skin diseases.

Response evaluation in third- and fourth-line treatment of GIST: the role of PET

Background: Response evaluation in gastrointestinal stromal tumors is difficult. Computed tomography and size-based assessments have been found inadequate to draw prognostic conclusions in patients treated with tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKI). Density criteria (CHOI) have recently been shown to better define prognostic subsets of patients evaluated with CT. Still, positron emission tomography (PET) might be better at identifying responders with good outcome early, as shown for first and recently second-line treatment in GIST (Prior et al.; J Clin Oncol 2009). We wanted to evaluate the role of PET in third- and fourth-line TKI treatment of GIST. Methods: We retrospectively reviewed patients with GIST who had received third- or fourth-line treatment with TKI and had undergone PET for response evaluation. Patient needed to have a baseline and at least one subsequent PET. Results of the first "early" PET after treatment start have been used throughout this analysis and EORTC PET Study Group criteria applied. Results: Twelve treatment courses were evaluable, seven with Nilotinib in third- and five with Sorafenib in fourth-line treatment, in 8 patients, median age 60 y (range 36−78 y), who had all failed prior Imatinib and Sunitinib treatment due to disease progession. Baseline and follow-up PET were performed within a median of 34 days (range 9−84 days). Median progression-free survival (PFS) was 262 days in patients responding to PET versus 76 days in patients with stable or progressing disease (p = 0.15). Conclusions: This small series suggests that PET retains its value for outcome prediction in third- and fourth-line TKI treatment of GIST. This could be of particular clinical value in these vulnerable patients with large tumour masses. Early PET may help in stopping ineffective, but toxic therapy and help switching to a more effective therapy. PET should be evaluated further in this patient population.

Stroke initial severity and outcome relative to insurance status in a universal health care system in Switzerland

Contexte et but de l'étude :Le statut socio-économique est suspecté d'avoir une influence significative sur l'incidence des attaques cérébrales (AVC), sur les facteurs de risque cardio-vasculaire, ainsi que sur le pronostic. L'influence de ce statut socio-économique sur la sévérité de l'AVC et sur les mécanismes physiopathologiques sous-jacents est moins connue.Méthode :Sur une période de 4 ans, nous avons collecté de manière prospective (dans un registre) des données concernant tous les patients avec AVC aigus admis à l'Unité Cérébrovasculaire du CHUV. Les données comprenaient le statut assécurologique du patient (assurance privée ou générale), les données démographiques, les facteurs de risque cérébrovasculaires, l'utilisation de traitements aigus de recanalisation vasculaire, le délai avant l'admission à l'hôpital, ainsi que la sévérité et le pronostic de l'AVC en phase aiguë, à 7 jours et à 3 mois des symptômes. Les patients avec assurance privée ont été comparés à ceux avec assurance générale.Résultats :Sur 1062 patients avec AVC, 203 avaient une assurance privée et 859 avaient une assurance générale. Il y a avait 585 hommes et 477 femmes. Les deux populations étaient similaires en âge. Les facteurs de risque cardio-vasculaire, la médication préventive, le délai d'arrivée à l'hôpital, l'incidence du taux de thrombolyse et l'étiologie de l'AVC ne différaient pas dans les deux populations. Le score de gravité de l'AVC en phase aiguë, mesuré par le NIHSS, était significativement plus élevé chez les patients avec assurance générale. Un pronostic favorable, mesuré par le score de Rankin modifié (mRS), était plus fréquemment obtenu à 7 jours et à 3 mois chez les patients avec assurance privée.Commentaires :Un statut socio-économique bas est associé à une incidence plus élevée de maladies cérébrovasculaires ainsi qu'à un plus mauvais pronostic, comme cela a été démontré dans différents pays. Il a été suspecté que l'accès à une prise en charge spécialisée en phase aiguë ou en rééducation soit différent selon le statut socio-économique. Comme la Suisse a un système de santé universel, avec une couverture assécurologique obligatoire pour chaque habitant, il y a là une occasion unique de comparer l'influence de l'aspect socio-économique sur la sévérité et le pronostic de l'AVC. De plus, les patients ont été admis dans la même Unité Cérébrovasculaire et pris en charge par la même équipe médicale.Conclusion et perspectives :Le lien entre le statut assécurologique et le statut socio-économique a déjà été prouvé par le passé dans d'autres pays. Nous avons mis en évidence une sévérité plus importante et un plus mauvais pronostic chez les patients avec assurance générale dans la population étudiée. L'étiologie de cette différence dans un système de santé à couverture universelle comme celui de la Suisse reste peu claire. Elle devrait être étudiée à plus grande échelle.

Essays in equilibrium asset pricing

This thesis consists of four essays in equilibrium asset pricing. The main topic is investors' heterogeneity: I investigates the equilibrium implications for the financial markets when investors have different attitudes toward risk. The first chapter studies why expected risk and remuneration on the aggregate market are negatively related, even if intuition and standard theory suggest a positive relation. I show that the negative trade-off can obtain in equilibrium if investors' beliefs about economic fundamentals are procyclically biased and the market Sharpe ratio is countercyclical. I verify that such conditions hold in the real markets and I find empirical support for the risk-return dynamics predicted by the model. The second chapter consists of two essays. The first essay studies how het¬erogeneity in risk preferences interacts with other sources of heterogeneity and how this affects asset prices in equilibrium. Using perceived macroeconomic un¬certainty as source of heterogeneity, the model helps to explain some patterns of financial returns, even if heterogeneity is small as suggested by survey data. The second essay determines conditions such that equilibrium prices have analytical solutions when investors have heterogeneous risk attitudes and macroeconomic fundamentals feature latent uncertainty. This approach provides additional in-sights to the previous literature where models require numerical solutions. The third chapter studies why equity claims (i.e. assets paying a single future dividend) feature premia and risk decreasing with the horizon, even if standard models imply the opposite shape. I show that labor relations helps to explain the puzzle. When workers have bargaining power to exploit partial income insurance within the firm, wages are smoother and dividends are riskier than in a standard economy. Distributional risk among workers and shareholders provides a rationale to the equity short-term risk, which leads to downward sloping term structures of premia and risk for equity claim. Résumé Cette thèse se compose de quatre essais dans l'évaluation des actifs d'équilibre. Le sujet principal est l'hétérogénéité des investisseurs: J'étudie les implications d'équilibre pour les marchés financiers où les investisseurs ont des attitudes différentes face au risque. Le première chapitre étudie pourquoi attendus risque et la rémunération sur le marché global sont liées négativement, même si l'intuition et la théorie standard suggèrent une relation positive. Je montre que le compromis négatif peut obtenir en équilibre si les croyances des investisseurs sur les fondamentaux économiques sont procyclique biaisées et le ratio de Sharpe du marché est anticyclique. Je vérifier que ces conditions sont réalisées dans les marchés réels et je trouve un appui empirique à la dynamique risque-rendement prédites par le modèle. Le deuxième chapitre se compose de deux essais. Le première essai étudie com¬ment hétérogénéité dans les préférences de risque inter agit avec d'autres sources d'hétérogénéité et comment cela affecte les prix des actifs en équilibre. Utili¬sation de l'incertitude macroéconomique perù comme source d'hétérogénéité, le modèle permet d'expliquer certaines tendances de rendements financiers, même si l'hétérogénéité est faible comme suggéré par les données d'enquête. Le deuxième essai détermine des conditions telles que les prix d'équilibre disposer de solutions analytiques lorsque les investisseurs ont des attitudes des risques hétérogènes et les fondamentaux macroéconomiques disposent d'incertitude latente. Cette approche fournit un éclairage supplémentaire à la littérature antérieure où les modèles nécessitent des solutions numériques. Le troisième chapitre étudie pourquoi les equity-claims (actifs que paient un seul dividende futur) ont les primes et le risque décroissante avec l'horizon, mme si les modèles standards impliquent la forme opposée. Je montre que les relations de travail contribue à expliquer l'énigme. Lorsque les travailleurs ont le pouvoir de négociation d'exploiter assurance revenu partiel dans l'entreprise, les salaires sont plus lisses et les dividendes sont plus risqués que dans une économie standard. Risque de répartition entre les travailleurs et les actionnaires fournit une justification à le risque à court terme, ce qui conduit à des term-structures en pente descendante des primes et des risques pour les equity-claims.

Autologous Stem Cell Transplantation (ASCT) for Enteropathy-Associated T-Cell Lymphoma (EATL): Final Analysis of a Retrospective Study On the Behalf of Lymphoma Working Party (LWP) of the European Group for Blood and Marrow Transplantation (EBMT).

Background: EATL is a rare subtype of peripheral T-cell lymphomas characterized by primarily intestinal localization and a frequent association with celiac disease. The prognosis is considered to be poor with conventional chemotherapy. Limited data is available on the efficacy of ASCT in this lymphoma subtype. Primary objective: was to study the outcome of ASCT as a consolidation or salvage strategy for EATL. The primary endpoint was overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS). Eligible patients were > 18 years who had received ASCT between 2000-2010 for EATL that was confirmed by review of written histopathology reports, and had sufficient information on disease history and follow-up available. The search strategy used the EBMT database to identify patients potentially fulfilling the eligibility criteria. An additional questionnaire was sent to individual transplant centres to confirm histological diagnosis (histopathology report or pathology review) as well as updated follow-up data. Patients and transplant characteristics were compared between groups using X2 test or Fisher's exact test for categorical variables and t-test or Mann-Whiney U-test for continuous variables. OS and PFS were estimated using the Kaplan-Meier product-limit estimate and compared by the log-rank test. Estimates for non-relapse mortality (NRM) and relapse or progression were calculated using cumulative incidence rates to accommodate competing risk and compared to Gray's test. Results: Altogether 138 patients were identified. Updated follow-up data was received from 74 patients (54 %) and histology report from 54 patients (39 %). In ten patients the diagnosis of EATL could not be adequately verified. Thus the final analysis included 44. There were 24 males and 20 females with a median age of 56 (35-72) years at the time of transplant. Twenty-five patients (57 %) had a history of celiac disease. Disease stage was I in nine patients (21 %), II in 14 patients (33 %) and IV in 19 patients (45 %). Twenty-four patients (55 %) were in the first CR or PR at the time of transplant. BEAM was used as a high-dose regimen in 36 patients (82 %) and all patients received peripheral blood grafts. The median follow-up for survivors was 46 (2-108) months from ASCT. Three patients died early from transplant-related reasons translating into a 2-year non-relapse mortality of 7 %. Relapse incidence at 4 years after ASCT was 39 %, with no events occurring beyond 2.5 years after ASCT. PFS and OS were 54 % and 59 % at four years, respectively. There was a trend for better OS in patients transplanted in the first CR or PR compared to more advanced disease status (70 % vs. 43 %, p=0.053). Of note, patients with a history of celiac disease had superior PFS (70 % vs. 35 %, p=0.02) and OS (70 % vs. 45 %, p=0.052) whilst age, gender, disease stage, B-symptoms at diagnosis or high-dose regimen were not associated with OS or PFS. Conclusions: This study shows for the first time in a larger patient sample that ASCT is feasible in selected patients with EATL and can yield durable disease control in a significant proportion of the patients. Patients transplanted in first CR or PR appear to do better than those transplanted later. ASCT should be considered in EATL patients responding to initial therapy.

Party drug use in techno nights: a field survey among French-speaking Swiss attendees.

This study was designed to investigate the lifestyle and substance use habits of dance music event attendees together with their attitudes toward prevention of substance misuse, harm reduction measures and health-care resources. A total of 302 attendees aged 16-46 years (mean=22.70, S.D.=4.65) were randomly recruited as they entered dance music events. Rates for lifetime and current use (last 30 days) were particularly high for alcohol (95.3% and 86.6%, respectively), cannabis (68.8% and 53.8%, respectively), ecstasy (40.4% and 22.7%, respectively) and cocaine (35.9% and 20.7%, respectively). Several patterns of substance use could be identified: 52% were alcohol and/or cannabis only users, 42% were occasional poly-drug users and 6% were daily poly-drug users. No significant difference was observed between substance use patterns according to gender. Pure techno and open-air events attracted heavier drug users. Psychological problems (such as depressed mood, sleeping problems and anxiety attacks), social problems, dental disorders, accidents and emergency treatment episodes were strongly related to party drug use. Party drug users appeared to be particularly receptive to harm reduction measures, such as on-site emergency staff, pill testing and the availability of cool water, and to prevention of drug use provided via counseling. The greater the involvement in party drug use, the greater the need for prevention personnel to be available for counseling. General practitioners appeared to be key professionals for accessing health-care resources.

Extremal properties of certain risk models

Cette thèse s'intéresse à étudier les propriétés extrémales de certains modèles de risque d'intérêt dans diverses applications de l'assurance, de la finance et des statistiques. Cette thèse se développe selon deux axes principaux, à savoir: Dans la première partie, nous nous concentrons sur deux modèles de risques univariés, c'est-à- dire, un modèle de risque de déflation et un modèle de risque de réassurance. Nous étudions le développement des queues de distribution sous certaines conditions des risques commun¬s. Les principaux résultats sont ainsi illustrés par des exemples typiques et des simulations numériques. Enfin, les résultats sont appliqués aux domaines des assurances, par exemple, les approximations de Value-at-Risk, d'espérance conditionnelle unilatérale etc. La deuxième partie de cette thèse est consacrée à trois modèles à deux variables: Le premier modèle concerne la censure à deux variables des événements extrême. Pour ce modèle, nous proposons tout d'abord une classe d'estimateurs pour les coefficients de dépendance et la probabilité des queues de distributions. Ces estimateurs sont flexibles en raison d'un paramètre de réglage. Leurs distributions asymptotiques sont obtenues sous certaines condi¬tions lentes bivariées de second ordre. Ensuite, nous donnons quelques exemples et présentons une petite étude de simulations de Monte Carlo, suivie par une application sur un ensemble de données réelles d'assurance. L'objectif de notre deuxième modèle de risque à deux variables est l'étude de coefficients de dépendance des queues de distributions obliques et asymétriques à deux variables. Ces distri¬butions obliques et asymétriques sont largement utiles dans les applications statistiques. Elles sont générées principalement par le mélange moyenne-variance de lois normales et le mélange de lois normales asymétriques d'échelles, qui distinguent la structure de dépendance de queue comme indiqué par nos principaux résultats. Le troisième modèle de risque à deux variables concerne le rapprochement des maxima de séries triangulaires elliptiques obliques. Les résultats théoriques sont fondés sur certaines hypothèses concernant le périmètre aléatoire sous-jacent des queues de distributions. -- This thesis aims to investigate the extremal properties of certain risk models of interest in vari¬ous applications from insurance, finance and statistics. This thesis develops along two principal lines, namely: In the first part, we focus on two univariate risk models, i.e., deflated risk and reinsurance risk models. Therein we investigate their tail expansions under certain tail conditions of the common risks. Our main results are illustrated by some typical examples and numerical simu¬lations as well. Finally, the findings are formulated into some applications in insurance fields, for instance, the approximations of Value-at-Risk, conditional tail expectations etc. The second part of this thesis is devoted to the following three bivariate models: The first model is concerned with bivariate censoring of extreme events. For this model, we first propose a class of estimators for both tail dependence coefficient and tail probability. These estimators are flexible due to a tuning parameter and their asymptotic distributions are obtained under some second order bivariate slowly varying conditions of the model. Then, we give some examples and present a small Monte Carlo simulation study followed by an application on a real-data set from insurance. The objective of our second bivariate risk model is the investigation of tail dependence coefficient of bivariate skew slash distributions. Such skew slash distributions are extensively useful in statistical applications and they are generated mainly by normal mean-variance mixture and scaled skew-normal mixture, which distinguish the tail dependence structure as shown by our principle results. The third bivariate risk model is concerned with the approximation of the component-wise maxima of skew elliptical triangular arrays. The theoretical results are based on certain tail assumptions on the underlying random radius.