A Bayesian network approach to the database serch problem in criminal proceedings

Background The 'database search problem', that is, the strengthening of a case - in terms of probative value - against an individual who is found as a result of a database search, has been approached during the last two decades with substantial mathematical analyses, accompanied by lively debate and centrally opposing conclusions. This represents a challenging obstacle in teaching but also hinders a balanced and coherent discussion of the topic within the wider scientific and legal community. This paper revisits and tracks the associated mathematical analyses in terms of Bayesian networks. Their derivation and discussion for capturing probabilistic arguments that explain the database search problem are outlined in detail. The resulting Bayesian networks offer a distinct view on the main debated issues, along with further clarity. Methods As a general framework for representing and analyzing formal arguments in probabilistic reasoning about uncertain target propositions (that is, whether or not a given individual is the source of a crime stain), this paper relies on graphical probability models, in particular, Bayesian networks. This graphical probability modeling approach is used to capture, within a single model, a series of key variables, such as the number of individuals in a database, the size of the population of potential crime stain sources, and the rarity of the corresponding analytical characteristics in a relevant population. Results This paper demonstrates the feasibility of deriving Bayesian network structures for analyzing, representing, and tracking the database search problem. The output of the proposed models can be shown to agree with existing but exclusively formulaic approaches. Conclusions The proposed Bayesian networks allow one to capture and analyze the currently most well-supported but reputedly counter-intuitive and difficult solution to the database search problem in a way that goes beyond the traditional, purely formulaic expressions. The method's graphical environment, along with its computational and probabilistic architectures, represents a rich package that offers analysts and discussants with additional modes of interaction, concise representation, and coherent communication.

Basic life support teaching in the second year pregraduate medical curriculum: quality of acquisition after 6 months

Purpose of the study: Basic life support (BLS) and automated externaldefibrillation (AED) represent important skills to be acquired duringpregraduate medical training. Since 3 years, our medical school hasintroduced a BLS-AED course (with certification) for all second yearmedical students. Few reports about quality and persistence over timeof BLS-AED learning are available to date in the medical literature.Comprehensive evaluation of students' acquired skills was performedat the end of the 2008 academic year, 6 month after certification.Materials and methods: The students (N = 142) were evaluated duringa 9 minutes «objective structured clinical examination» (OSCE) station.Out of a standardized scenario, they had to recognize a cardiac arrestsituation and start a resuscitation process. Their performance wererecorded on a PC using an Ambuman(TM) mannequin and the AmbuCPR software kit(TM) during a minimum of 8 cycles (30 compressions:2 ventilations each). BLS parameters were systematically checked. Nostudent-rater interactions were allowed during the whole evaluation.Results: Response of the victim was checked by 99% of the students(N = 140), 96% (N = 136) called for an ambulance and/or an AED. Openthe airway and check breathing were done by 96% (N = 137), 92% (N =132) gave 2 rescue breaths. Pulse was checked by 95% (N=135), 100%(N = 142) begun chest compression, 96% (N = 136) within 1 minute.Chest compression rate was 101 ± 18 per minute (mean ± SD), depthcompression 43 ± 8 mm, 97% (N = 138) respected a compressionventilationratio of 30:2.Conclusions: Quality of BLS skills acquisition is maintained during a6-month period after a BLS-AED certification. Main targets of 2005 AHAguidelines were well respected. This analysis represents one of thelargest evaluations of specific BLS teaching efficiency reported. Furtherfollow-up is needed to control the persistence of these skills during alonger time period and noteworthy at the end of the pregraduatemedical curriculum.

Evaluation of an online, case-based interactive approach to teaching pathophysiology

AIM: The aim of this study was to evaluate a new pedagogical approach in teaching fluid, electrolyte and acid-base pathophysiology in undergraduate students. METHODS: This approach comprises traditional lectures, the study of clinical cases on the web and a final interactive discussion of these cases in the classroom. When on the web, the students are asked to select laboratory tests that seem most appropriate to understand the pathophysiological condition underlying the clinical case. The percentage of students having chosen a given test is made available to the teacher who uses it in an interactive session to stimulate discussion with the whole class of students. The same teacher used the same case studies during 2 consecutive years during the third year of the curriculum. RESULTS: The majority of students answered the questions on the web as requested and evaluated positively their experience with this form of teaching and learning. CONCLUSIONS: Complementing traditional lectures with online case-based studies and interactive group discussions represents, therefore, a simple means to promote the learning and the understanding of complex pathophysiological mechanisms. This simple problem-based approach to teaching and learning may be implemented to cover all fields of medicine.

Chances and risks of nanomaterials for health and environment

Nanomaterials have properties that are often very different from normal materials made of the same substance, which can be used to create novel products with exciting properties. However, the health and environmental impact of these nanomaterials is also changed and their potential risk needs to be studied. There is evidence that some nanomaterials can pass through tissue barriers (including the blood-brain barrier) and cell membranes. This is interesting for medical applications, but it raises concerns about the impact of non-medical nanomaterials. Current research aims at better coordinating research efforts and at better communication between researchers and involved stakeholders. Many research labs and production sites currently follow strategies that were established for dealing with very toxic chemicals and powders, until future research in this field helps identify the appropriate level of protection. All these efforts will ultimately ensure a safe, healthy and environmental friendly production, use and disposal of nanomaterials.

Results from a multicentre international registry of familial Mediterranean fever: impact of environment on the expression of a monogenic disease in children.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Familial Mediterranean fever (FMF) is an autoinflammatory disease caused by mutations of the MEFV gene. We analyse the impact of ethnic, environmental and genetic factors on the severity of disease presentation in a large international registry. METHODS: Demographic, genetic and clinical data from validated paediatric FMF patients enrolled in the Eurofever registry were analysed. Three subgroups were considered: (i) patients living in the eastern Mediterranean countries; (ii) patients with an eastern Mediterranean ancestry living in western Europe; (iii) Caucasian patients living in western European countries. A score for disease severity at presentation was elaborated. RESULTS: Since November 2009, 346 FMF paediatric patients were enrolled in the Eurofever registry. The genetic and demographic features (ethnicity, age of onset, age at diagnosis) were similar among eastern Mediterranean patients whether they lived in their countries or western European countries. European patients had a lower frequency of the high penetrance M694V mutation and a significant delay of diagnosis (p<0.002). Patients living in eastern Mediterranean countries had a higher frequency of fever episodes/year and more frequent arthritis, pericarditis, chest pain, abdominal pain and vomiting compared to the other two groups. Multivariate analysis showed that the variables independently associated with severity of disease presentation were country of residence, presence of M694V mutation and positive family history. CONCLUSIONS: Eastern Mediterranean FMF patients have a milder disease phenotype once they migrate to Europe, reflecting the effect of environment on the expression of a monogenic disease.

The effect of recalled previous work environment on return to work after a rehabilitation program including vocational aspects for trauma patients.

INTRODUCTION: The aim of the present study was to assess the association between remembered previous work place environment and return to work (RTW) after hospitalisation in a rehabilitation hospital. METHODS: A cohort of 291 orthopedic trauma patients discharged from hospital between 15 December 2004 and 31 December 2005 was included in a study addressing quality of life and work-related questions. Remembered previous work environment was measured by Karasek's 31-item Job Content Questionnaire (JCQ), given to the patients during hospitalisation. Post-hospitalisation work status was assessed 3 months, 1, and 2 years after discharge, using a questionnaire sent to the ex-patients. Logistic regression models were used to test the role of four JCQ variables on RTW at each time point while controlling for relevant confounders. RESULTS: Subjects perceiving a higher physical demand were less likely to return to work 1 year after hospital discharge. Social support at work was positively associated with RTW at all time points. A high job strain appeared to be positively associated with RTW 1 year after rehabilitation, with limitations due to large confidence intervals. CONCLUSIONS: Perceptions of previous work environment may influence the probability of RTW. In a rehabilitation setting, efforts should be made to assess those perceptions and, if needed, interventions to modify them should be applied.

Didactique de la géographie et formation initiale des enseignants spécialistes : conception et première évaluation du nouveau dispositif de formation initiale des enseignants de géographie du Secondaire supérieur à la HEP Vaud

Geography as a school subject is specifically thought for and by the schools. The contents of the school subject, nowadays, do not reflect the concerns and the evolution of the discipline as such. Nevertheless, official curricula set school objectives that address issues affecting the world and people's lives. These issues are coherent with the ones addressed by geography as a social science, that is to say the study of how people and their environment interact and how societies are interconnected through space. On an every day basis, Geography as a school subject is most of the time reduced to accumulating knowledge outside any given context. This knowledge may even be partially untrue or old and the related activities focus on low cognitive tensions. These practices do not contribute to the learners' understanding of the world because it does not allow them to build a geographical competence, which they. will need as future citizens in order to make responsible choices when they are confronted to questions related to how the locations of human and physical features are influenced by each other and how they interact across space. The central part of the text relies on the ideas and the processes discussed in the publications, which constitute the published file; it is divided into two parts. The first part (chapter 4) presents a didactic approach, which gives meaningful insights into Geography as a school subject and shows a brief account of the theoretical background that supports it. This socio-constructivist approach relies on the main following features: a priming stage (élément déclencheur), which presents geographical knowledge as an issue to be explored, discussed or solved; the issue is given to learners;. the planning of the teaching-learning sequence in small units launched by the main issue in the priming stage ; the interconnections of geographical knowledge with integrative concepts ; the synthetic stage or reporting stage where final concepts and knowledge are put together in order to be learned. Such an approach allows learners to re-invest the knowledge they have built themselves. This knowledge is organised by geographical integrative concepts, which represent true thinking operative tools and with which key issues in the geographical thinking are associated. The second part of the text (chapter 5) displays the didactic principles that governed the conception of the new initial training course for the future upper secondary school teachers at the HEP Vaud. The ambition of this course is to prepare future teachers to plan and realize the teaching of geography that provides pupils with the tools to understand better how people and their environment interact and how societies are interconnected through space. One of the tools for the teachers is the conceptual framework, whose most salient interest is to be relevant at every stage of the preparation and planning of the teaching, including the necessary epistemological reflection that should always be present. The synthesis of the text starts with a short account of the first evaluation of the new course. Various reflections on the future concerns and issues, that the didactics and methodology of Geography will be confronted with, constitute the synthesis.

Effects of the social environment on the survival and fungal resistance of ant brood

The phenotype of social animals can be influenced by genetic, maternal and environmental effects, which include social interactions during development. In social insects, the social environment and genetic origin of brood can each influence a whole suite of traits, from individual size to caste differentiation. Here, we investigate to which degree the social environment during development affects the survival and fungal resistance of ant brood of known maternal origin. We manipulated one component of the social environment, the worker/brood ratio, of brood originating from single queens of Formica selysi. We monitored the survival of brood and measured the head size and ability to resist the entomopathogenic fungus Beauveria bassiana of the resulting callow workers. The worker/brood ratio and origin of eggs affected the survival and maturation time of the brood and the size of the resulting callow workers. The survival of the callow workers varied greatly according to their origin, both in controls and when challenged with B. bassiana. However, there was no interaction between the fungal challenge and either the worker/brood ratio or origin of eggs, suggesting that these factors did not affect parasite resistance in the conditions tested. Overall, the social conditions during brood rearing and the origin of eggs had a strong impact on brood traits that are important for fitness. We detected a surprisingly large amount of variation among queens in the survival of their brood reared in standard queenless conditions, which calls for further studies on genetic, maternal and social effects influencing brood development in the social insects.