205 resultados para sub-seasonal prediction


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1. Mise en perspective de l'étude La grippe est une cause importante de morbidité et de mortalité après la transplantation d'organe. Bien que la principale stratégie de prévention de la grippe après la transplantation d'organes soit l'administration du vaccin antigrippal annuel, l'immunogénicité de ce vaccin chez les greffés d'organe n'est pas optimale. Nous avons effectué une étude prospective pour évaluer l'influence de la thérapie d'induction sur l'immunogénicité du vaccin de la grippe. 2. Méthodes Nous avons comparé la réponse au vaccin de la grippe chez deux groupes de greffés rénaux en fonction de la thérapie d'induction reçu (thymoglobulin vs basiliximab). Le taux des anticorps ont étés mesurés par inhibition de l'hémagglutination (HI). La réponse au vaccin (taux de séroconversion) a été définie comme l'augmentation > 4 fois du taux d'anticorps (immunoglobulines) et ceci a été notre outcome primaire. 3. Résultats Soixante transplantés rénaux ont été inclus dans l'étude (thymoglobuline=22, basiliximab=38). Les patients dans le group traité par thymoglobuline étaient plus âgés (p=0.16), avaient des valeurs de créatinine plus élevés (p=0.16) et avaient étés transplanté auparavant (p=0.02). Aucune différence n'a été mise en évidence au niveau de taux des immunoglobulines pour les 3 souches virales entre les 2 groupes (p=0.69 pour H INI, p=0.56 pour H3N2, p=0.7 pour Influenza Β). Le taux de séroconversion à au moins une souche virale a été de 68 % pour le groupe thymoglobuline et de 73% pour le groupe basiliximab (p=0.77). 4. Conclusion Aucune différence significative n'a été démontré dans l'immunogénicité du vaccin de la grippe dans les transplantés rénaux ayant reçu soit du thymoglobuline soit du basiliximab comme traitement d'induction.

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The use of areal bone mineral density (aBMD) for fracture prediction may be enhanced by considering bone microarchitectural deterioration. Trabecular bone score (TBS) helped in redefining a significant subset of non-osteoporotic women as a higher risk group. INTRODUCTION: TBS is an index of bone microarchitecture. Our goal was to assess the ability of TBS to predict incident fracture. METHODS: TBS was assessed in 560 postmenopausal women from the Os des Femmes de Lyon cohort, who had a lumbar spine (LS) DXA scan (QDR 4500A, Hologic) between years 2000 and 2001. During a mean follow-up of 7.8 ± 1.3 years, 94 women sustained 112 fragility fractures. RESULTS: At the time of baseline DXA scan, women with incident fracture were significantly older (70 ± 9 vs. 65 ± 8 years) and had a lower LS_aBMD and LS_TBS (both -0.4SD, p < 0.001) than women without fracture. The magnitude of fracture prediction was similar for LS_aBMD and LS_TBS (odds ratio [95 % confidence interval] = 1.4 [1.2;1.7] and 1.6 [1.2;2.0]). After adjustment for age and prevalent fracture, LS_TBS remained predictive of an increased risk of fracture. Yet, its addition to age, prevalent fracture, and LS_aBMD did not reach the level of significance to improve the fracture prediction. When using the WHO classification, 39 % of fractures occurred in osteoporotic women, 46 % in osteopenic women, and 15 % in women with T-score > -1. Thirty-seven percent of fractures occurred in the lowest quartile of LS_TBS, regardless of BMD. Moreover, 35 % of fractures that occurred in osteopenic women were classified below this LS_TBS threshold. CONCLUSION: In conclusion, LS_aBMD and LS_TBS predicted fractures equally well. In our cohort, the addition of LS_TBS to age and LS_aBMD added only limited information on fracture risk prediction. However, using the lowest quartile of LS_TBS helped in redefining a significant subset of non-osteoporotic women as a higher risk group which is important for patient management.

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BACKGROUND: Frailty, as defined by the index derived from the Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS index), predicts risk of adverse outcomes in older adults. Use of this index, however, is impractical in clinical practice. METHODS: We conducted a prospective cohort study in 6701 women 69 years or older to compare the predictive validity of a simple frailty index with the components of weight loss, inability to rise from a chair 5 times without using arms, and reduced energy level (Study of Osteoporotic Fractures [SOF index]) with that of the CHS index with the components of unintentional weight loss, poor grip strength, reduced energy level, slow walking speed, and low level of physical activity. Women were classified as robust, of intermediate status, or frail using each index. Falls were reported every 4 months for 1 year. Disability (> or =1 new impairment in performing instrumental activities of daily living) was ascertained at 4(1/2) years, and fractures and deaths were ascertained during 9 years of follow-up. Area under the curve (AUC) statistics from receiver operating characteristic curve analysis and -2 log likelihood statistics were compared for models containing the CHS index vs the SOF index. RESULTS: Increasing evidence of frailty as defined by either the CHS index or the SOF index was similarly associated with an increased risk of adverse outcomes. Frail women had a higher age-adjusted risk of recurrent falls (odds ratio, 2.4), disability (odds ratio, 2.2-2.8), nonspine fracture (hazard ratio, 1.4-1.5), hip fracture (hazard ratio, 1.7-1.8), and death (hazard ratio, 2.4-2.7) (P < .001 for all models). The AUC comparisons revealed no differences between models with the CHS index vs the SOF index in discriminating falls (AUC = 0.61 for both models; P = .66), disability (AUC = 0.64; P = .23), nonspine fracture (AUC = 0.55; P = .80), hip fracture (AUC = 0.63; P = .64), or death (AUC = 0.72; P = .10). Results were similar when -2 log likelihood statistics were compared. CONCLUSION: The simple SOF index predicts risk of falls, disability, fracture, and death as well as the more complex CHS index and may provide a useful definition of frailty to identify older women at risk of adverse health outcomes in clinical practice.

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BACKGROUND: As embryo selection is not allowed by law in Switzerland, we need a single early scoring system to identify zygotes with high implantation potential and to select zygotes for fresh transfer or cryopreservation. The underlying aim is to maximize the cumulated pregnancy rate while limiting the number of multiple pregnancies. METHODS: In all, 613 fresh and 617 frozen-thawed zygotes were scored for proximity, orientation and centring of the pronuclei, cytoplasmic halo, and number and polarization of the nucleolar precursor bodies. From these individual scores, a cumulated pronuclear score (CPNS) was calculated. Correlation between CPNS and implantation was examined and compared between fresh and frozen-thawed zygotes. The effect of freezing on CPNS was also investigated. RESULTS: CPNS was positively associated with embryo implantation in both fresh and frozen zygotes. With similar CPNS, frozen zygotes presented implantation rates as high as those of fresh zygotes. Nucleolar precursor bodies pattern and cytoplasmic halo appeared as the most important factors predictive of implantation for both types of zygotes, while pronuclei position was specifically relevant for frozen-thawed zygotes. Freezing induced an alteration of most zygote parameters, resulting in a significantly lower CPNS and a lower pregnancy rate. CONCLUSIONS: CPNS may be used as a single prognostic tool for implantation of both fresh and frozen-thawed zygotes. Lower CPNS values of frozen-thawed zygotes may also be indicative of freezing damage to zygotes. Successful implantation of frozen zygotes despite lower CPNS suggests that they may recover after thawing and in vitro culture.

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BACKGROUND: A simple prognostic model could help identify patients with pulmonary embolism who are at low risk of death and are candidates for outpatient treatment. METHODS: We randomly allocated 15,531 retrospectively identified inpatients who had a discharge diagnosis of pulmonary embolism from 186 Pennsylvania hospitals to derivation (67%) and internal validation (33%) samples. We derived our rule to predict 30-day mortality using classification tree analysis and patient data routinely available at initial examination as potential predictor variables. We used data from a European prospective study to externally validate the rule among 221 inpatients with pulmonary embolism. We determined mortality and nonfatal adverse medical outcomes across derivation and validation samples. RESULTS: Our final model consisted of 10 patient factors (age > or = 70 years; history of cancer, heart failure, chronic lung disease, chronic renal disease, and cerebrovascular disease; and clinical variables of pulse rate > or = 110 beats/min, systolic blood pressure < 100 mm Hg, altered mental status, and arterial oxygen saturation < 90%). Patients with none of these factors were defined as low risk. The 30-day mortality rates for low-risk patients were 0.6%, 1.5%, and 0% in the derivation, internal validation, and external validation samples, respectively. The rates of nonfatal adverse medical outcomes were less than 1% among low-risk patients across all study samples. CONCLUSIONS: This simple prediction rule accurately identifies patients with pulmonary embolism who are at low risk of short-term mortality and other adverse medical outcomes. Prospective validation of this rule is important before its implementation as a decision aid for outpatient treatment.

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BACKGROUND: Recanalization in acute ischemic stroke with large-vessel occlusion is a potent indicator of good clinical outcome. OBJECTIVE: To identify easily available clinical and radiologic variables predicting recanalization at various occlusion sites. METHODS: All consecutive, acute stroke patients from the Acute STroke Registry and Analysis of Lausanne (2003-2011) who had a large-vessel occlusion on computed tomographic angiography (CTA) (< 12 h) were included. Recanalization status was assessed at 24 h (range: 12-48 h) with CTA, magnetic resonance angiography, or ultrasonography. Complete and partial recanalization (corresponding to the modified Treatment in Cerebral Ischemia scale 2-3) were grouped together. Patients were categorized according to occlusion site and treatment modality. RESULTS: Among 439 patients, 51% (224) showed complete or partial recanalization. In multivariate analysis, recanalization of any occlusion site was most strongly associated with endovascular treatment, including bridging therapy (odds ratio [OR] 7.1, 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.2-23.2), and less so with intravenous thrombolysis (OR 1.6, 95% CI 1.0-2.6) and recanalization treatments performed beyond guidelines (OR 2.6, 95% CI 1.2-5.7). Clot location (large vs. intermediate) and tandem pathology (the combination of intracranial occlusion and symptomatic extracranial stenosis) were other variables discriminating between recanalizers and non-recanalizers. For patients with intracranial occlusions, the variables significantly associated with recanalization after 24 h were: baseline National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) (OR 1.04, 95% CI 1.02-1.1), Alberta Stroke Program Early CT Score (ASPECTS) on initial computed tomography (OR 1.2, 95% CI 1.1-1.3), and an altered level of consciousness (OR 0.2, 95% CI 0.1-0.5). CONCLUSIONS: Acute endovascular treatment is the single most important factor promoting recanalization in acute ischemic stroke. The presence of extracranial vessel stenosis or occlusion decreases recanalization rates. In patients with intracranial occlusions, higher NIHSS score and ASPECTS and normal vigilance facilitate recanalization. Clinical use of these predictors could influence recanalization strategies in individual patients.

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BACKGROUND: In this study we compared the immunogenicity of influenza vaccine administered intradermally to the standard intramuscular vaccination in lung transplant recipients. METHODS: Patients were randomized to receive the trivalent inactivated seasonal 2008-9 influenza vaccine containing either 6 μg (intradermal) or 15 μg (intramuscular) of hemagglutinin per viral strain. Immunogenicity was assessed by measurement of geometric mean titer of antibodies using the hemagglutination-inhibition (HI) assay. Vaccine response was defined as a 4-fold or higher increase of antibody titers to at least one vaccine antigen. RESULTS: Eighty-five patients received either the intradermal (n = 41) or intramuscular (n = 44) vaccine. Vaccine response was seen in 6 of 41 patients (14.6%) in the intradermal vs 8 of 43 (18.6%) in the intramuscular group (p = 0.77). Seroprotection (HI ≥1:32) was 39% for H1N1, 83% for H3N2 and 29% for B strain in the intradermal group vs 28% for H1N1, 98% for H3N2 and 58% for B strain in the intramuscular group (p = 0.36 for H1N1, p = 0.02 for H3N2, p < 0.01 for B). Mild adverse events were seen in 44% of patients in the intradermal group and 34% in the intramuscular group (p = 0.38). CONCLUSIONS: Immunogenicity of the 2008-9 influenza vaccine given intradermally or intramuscularly was overall poor in lung transplant recipients. Novel strategies for influenza vaccination in this population are needed.

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Metabolic problems lead to numerous failures during clinical trials, and much effort is now devoted to developing in silico models predicting metabolic stability and metabolites. Such models are well known for cytochromes P450 and some transferases, whereas less has been done to predict the activity of human hydrolases. The present study was undertaken to develop a computational approach able to predict the hydrolysis of novel esters by human carboxylesterase hCES2. The study involved first a homology modeling of the hCES2 protein based on the model of hCES1 since the two proteins share a high degree of homology (congruent with 73%). A set of 40 known substrates of hCES2 was taken from the literature; the ligands were docked in both their neutral and ionized forms using GriDock, a parallel tool based on the AutoDock4.0 engine which can perform efficient and easy virtual screening analyses of large molecular databases exploiting multi-core architectures. Useful statistical models (e.g., r (2) = 0.91 for substrates in their unprotonated state) were calculated by correlating experimental pK(m) values with distance between the carbon atom of the substrate's ester group and the hydroxy function of Ser228. Additional parameters in the equations accounted for hydrophobic and electrostatic interactions between substrates and contributing residues. The negatively charged residues in the hCES2 cavity explained the preference of the enzyme for neutral substrates and, more generally, suggested that ligands which interact too strongly by ionic bonds (e.g., ACE inhibitors) cannot be good CES2 substrates because they are trapped in the cavity in unproductive modes and behave as inhibitors. The effects of protonation on substrate recognition and the contrasting behavior of substrates and products were finally investigated by MD simulations of some CES2 complexes.

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Background: Several markers of atherosclerosis and of inflammation have been shown to predict coronary heart disease (CHD) individually. However, the utility of markers of atherosclerosis and of inflammation on prediction of CHD over traditional risk factors has not been well established, especially in the elderly. Methods: We studied 2202 men and women, aged 70-79, without baseline cardiovascular disease over 6-year follow-up to assess the risk of incident CHD associated with baseline noninvasive measures of atherosclerosis (ankle-arm index [AAI], aortic pulse wave velocity [aPWV]) and inflammatory markers (interleukin-6 [IL-6], C-reactive protein [CRP], tumor necrosis factor-a [TNF-a]). CHD events were studied as either nonfatal myocardial infarction or coronary death ("hard" events), and "hard" events plus hospitalization for angina, or the need for coronary-revascularization procedures (total CHD events). Results: During the 6-year follow-up, 283 participants had CHD events (including 136 "hard" events). IL-6, TNF-a and AAI independently predicted CHD events above Framingham Risk Score (FRS) with hazard ratios [HR] for the highest as compared with the lowest quartile for IL-6 of 1.95 (95%CI: 1.38-2.75, p for trend <0.001), TNF-a of 1.45 (95%CI: 1.04-2.02, p for trend 0.03), of 1.66 (95%CI: 1.19-2.31) for AAI 0.9, as compared to AAI 1.01-1.30. CRP and aPWV were not independently associated with CHD events. Results were similar for "hard" CHD events. Addition of IL-6 and AAI to traditional cardiovascular risk factors yielded the greatest improvement in the prediction of CHD; C-index for "hard"/total CHD events increased from 0.62/0.62 for traditional risk factors to 0.64/0.64 for IL-6 addition, 0.65/0.63 for AAI, and 0.66/0.64 for IL-6 combined with AAI. Being in the highest quartile of IL-6 combined with an AAI 0.90 or >1.40 yielded an HR of 2.51 (1.50-4.19) and 4.55 (1.65-12.50) above FRS, respectively. With use of CHD risk categories, risk prediction at 5 years was more accurate in models that included IL-6, AAI or both, with 8.0, 8.3 and 12.1% correctly reclassified, respectively. Conclusions: Among older adults, markers of atherosclerosis and of inflammation, particularly IL-6 and AAI, are independently associated with CHD. However, these markers only modestly improve cardiovascular risk prediction beyond traditional risk factors.

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The variations of environmental conditions (T°, pH, δ13CDIC, [DIC], δ18O, Mg/Ca, and Sr/Ca) of ostracod habitats were examined to determine the controls of environmental parameters on the chemical and isotopic composition of ostracod valves. Results of a one-year monitoring of environmental parameters at five sites, with depths of between 2 and 70 m, in Lake Geneva indicate that in littoral to sub-littoral zones (2, 5, and 13 m), the chemical composition of bottom water varies seasonally in concert with changes in temperature and photosynthetic activity. An increase of temperature and photosynthetic activity leads to an increase in δ13C values of DIC and to precipitation of authigenic calcite, which results in a concomitant increase of Mg/Ca and Sr/Ca ratios of water. In deeper sites (33 and 70 m), the composition of bottom water remains constant throughout the year and isotopic values and trace element contents are similar to those of deep water within the lake. The chemical composition of interstitial pore water also does not reflect seasonal variations but is controlled by calcite dissolution, aerobic respiration, anaerobic respiration with reduction of sulphate and/or nitrate, and methanogenesis that may occur in the sediment pores. Relative influence of each of these factors on the pore water geochemistry depends on sediment thickness and texture, oxygen content in bottom as well as pore water. Variations of chemical compositions of the ostracod valves of this study vary according to the specific ecology of the ostracod species analysed, that is its life-cycle and its (micro-)habitat. Littoral species have compositions that are related to the seasonal variations of temperature, δ13C values of DIC, and of Mg/Ca and Sr/Ca ratios of water. In contrast, the compositions of profundal species are largely controlled by variations of pore fluids along sediment depth profiles according to the specific depth preference of the species. The control on the geochemistry of sub-littoral species is a combination of controls for the littoral and profundal species as well as the specific ecology of the species.

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1. The immune system plays an important role in fitness, and interindividual variation in immunocompetence is due to several factors including food supply. 2. Seasonal variation in food resources may therefore explain why immunocompetence in bird nestlings usually declines throughout the breeding season, with chicks born early in the season receiving more food than chicks born later, and thereby possibly developing a more potent immune system. Although there are studies supporting this hypothesis, none has been experimental. 3. We performed an experiment in the kittiwake Rissa tridactyla by manipulating the food supply of pairs that were left to produce a first brood, and of pairs that were induced to produce a late replacement brood. 4. If food supply mediates, at least partially, seasonal variations in chick immunocompetence, non-food-supplemented chicks would show a stronger seasonal decline in immunocompetence than food-supplemented chicks. 5. Food supplementation improved humoral immunocompetence (the production of immunoglobulins Y), but not T-cell immunocompetence (phytohaemagglutinin, PHA response). T-cell immunocompetence of food-supplemented and non-food-supplemented chicks decreased through the season but to a similar extent, whereas the humoral immunocompetence of non-food-supplemented chicks decreased more strongly than that of food-supplemented chicks. 6. Our results suggest that the seasonal decline in humoral immunocompetence can be explained, at least partly, by variations in food supply throughout the breeding season.

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BACKGROUND: The Outpatient Bleeding Risk Index (OBRI) and the Kuijer, RIETE and Kearon scores are clinical prognostic scores for bleeding in patients receiving oral anticoagulants for venous thromboembolism (VTE). We prospectively compared the performance of these scores in elderly patients with VTE. METHODS: In a prospective multicenter Swiss cohort study, we studied 663 patients aged ≥ 65 years with acute VTE. The outcome was a first major bleeding at 90 days. We classified patients into three categories of bleeding risk (low, intermediate and high) according to each score and dichotomized patients as high vs. low or intermediate risk. We calculated the area under the receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve, positive predictive values and likelihood ratios for each score. RESULTS: Overall, 28 out of 663 patients (4.2%, 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.8-6.0%) had a first major bleeding within 90 days. According to different scores, the rate of major bleeding varied from 1.9% to 2.1% in low-risk, from 4.2% to 5.0% in intermediate-risk and from 3.1% to 6.6% in high-risk patients. The discriminative power of the scores was poor to moderate, with areas under the ROC curve ranging from 0.49 to 0.60 (P = 0.21). The positive predictive values and positive likelihood ratios were low and varied from 3.1% to 6.6% and from 0.72 to 1.59, respectively. CONCLUSION: In elderly patients with VTE, existing bleeding risk scores do not have sufficient accuracy and power to discriminate between patients with VTE who are at a high risk of short-term major bleeding and those who are not.

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Status epilepticus (SE) is associated with significant mortality and morbidity. A reliable prognosis may help better manage medical resources and treatment strategies. We examined the role of preexisting comorbidities on the outcome of patients with SE, an aspect that has received little attention to date. We prospectively studied incident SE episodes in 280 adults occurring over 55 months in our tertiary care hospital, excluding patients with postanoxic encephalopathy. Different models predicting mortality and return to clinical baseline at hospital discharge were compared, which included demographics, SE etiology, a validated clinical Status Epilepticus Severity Score (STESS), and comorbidities (assessed with the Charlson Comorbidity Index) as independent variables. The overall short-term mortality was 14%, and only half of patients returned to their clinical baseline. On bivariate analyses, age, STESS, potentially fatal etiologies, and number of preexisting comorbidities were all significant predictors of both mortality and return to clinical baseline. As compared with the simplest predictive model (including demographics and deadly etiology), adding SE severity and comorbidities resulted in an improved predictive performance (C statistics 0.84 vs. 0.77 for mortality, and 0.86 vs. 0.82. for return to clinical baseline); comorbidities, however, were not independently related to outcome. Considering comorbidities and clinical presentation, in addition to age and etiology, slightly improves the prediction of SE outcome with respect to both survival and functional status. This analysis also emphasizes the robust predictive role of etiology and age.

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SUMMARY: BMD and clinical risk factors predict hip and other osteoporotic fractures. The combination of clinical risk factors and BMD provide higher specificity and sensitivity than either alone. INTRODUCTION AND HYPOTHESES: To develop a risk assessment tool based on clinical risk factors (CRFs) with and without BMD. METHODS: Nine population-based studies were studied in which BMD and CRFs were documented at baseline. Poisson regression models were developed for hip fracture and other osteoporotic fractures, with and without hip BMD. Fracture risk was expressed as gradient of risk (GR, risk ratio/SD change in risk score). RESULTS: CRFs alone predicted hip fracture with a GR of 2.1/SD at the age of 50 years and decreased with age. The use of BMD alone provided a higher GR (3.7/SD), and was improved further with the combined use of CRFs and BMD (4.2/SD). For other osteoporotic fractures, the GRs were lower than for hip fracture. The GR with CRFs alone was 1.4/SD at the age of 50 years, similar to that provided by BMD (GR = 1.4/SD) and was not markedly increased by the combination (GR = 1.4/SD). The performance characteristics of clinical risk factors with and without BMD were validated in eleven independent population-based cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: The models developed provide the basis for the integrated use of validated clinical risk factors in men and women to aid in fracture risk prediction.

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OsteoLaus is a cohort of 1400 women 50 to 80 years living in Lausanne, Switzerland. Clinical risk factors for osteoporosis, bone ultrasound of the heel, lumbar spine and hip bone mineral density (BMD), assessment of vertebral fracture by DXA, and microarchitecture evaluation by TBS (Trabecular Bone Score) will be recorded. TBS is a new parameter obtained after a re-analysis of a DXA exam. TBS is correlated with parameters of microarchitecture. His reproducibility is good. TBS give an added diagnostic value to BMD, and predict osteoporotic fracture (partially) independently to BMD. The position of TBS in clinical routine in complement to BMD and clinical risk factors will be evaluated in the OsteoLaus cohort.