Assessing the Relationship between the Baseline Value of a Continuous Variable and Subsequent Change over Time

Analyzing the relationship between the baseline value and subsequent change of a continuous variable is a frequent matter of inquiry in cohort studies. These analyses are surprisingly complex, particularly if only two waves of data are available. It is unclear for non-biostatisticians where the complexity of this analysis lies and which statistical method is adequate.With the help of simulated longitudinal data of body mass index in children,we review statistical methods for the analysis of the association between the baseline value and subsequent change, assuming linear growth with time. Key issues in such analyses are mathematical coupling, measurement error, variability of change between individuals, and regression to the mean. Ideally, it is better to rely on multiple repeated measurements at different times and a linear random effects model is a standard approach if more than two waves of data are available. If only two waves of data are available, our simulations show that Blomqvist's method - which consists in adjusting for measurement error variance the estimated regression coefficient of observed change on baseline value - provides accurate estimates. The adequacy of the methods to assess the relationship between the baseline value and subsequent change depends on the number of data waves, the availability of information on measurement error, and the variability of change between individuals.

HIV behavioural surveillance in Switzerland: trends in drug consumption, injection and syringe distribution, 1993-2011

Background: As part of the second generation surveillance system for HIV/Aids in Switzerland, repeated cross-sectional surveys were conducted in 1993, 1994, 1996, 2000, 2006 and 2011 among attenders of all low threshold facilities (LTFs) with needle exchange programmes and/or supervised drug consumption rooms for injection or inhalation. The number of syringes distributed to the injectors has also been measured annually since 2000. Distribution in other settings, such as pharmacies, is also monitored nationally. Methods: Periodic surveys of LTFs have been conducted using an interviewer/self-administered questionnaire structured along four themes: socio-demographic characteristics, drug consumption, risk/preventive behaviour and health. Analysis is restricted to attenders who had injected drugs during their lifetime (IDU´s). Pearson's chi-square test and trend analysis were conducted on annual aggregated data. Trend significance was assessed using Stata's non parametric test nptrend. Results: Median age of IDU´s increased from 26 years in 1993 to 40 in 2011; most are men (78%). Total yearly number of syringes distributed by LTFs has decreased by 44% in 10 years. Use of cocaine has increased (Table 1). Injection, regular use of heroin and borrowing of syringes/needles have decreased, while sharing of other material remains stable. There are fewer new injectors; more IDU´s report substitution treatment. Most attenders had ever been tested for HIV (90% in 1993, 94% in 2011). Reported prevalence of HIV remained stable around 10%; that of HCV decreased from 62% in 2000 to 42% in 2011. Conclusions: Overall, findings indicate a decrease in injection as a means of drug consumption in that population. This interpretation is supported by data from other sources, such as a national decrease in distribution from other delivery points. Switzerland's behavioural surveillance system is sustainable and allows the HIV epidemic to be monitored among this hard-to-reach population, providing information for planning and evaluation.

Incidence of presumed endophthalmitis after intravitreal injection performed in the operating room: a retrospective multicenter study.

PURPOSE: To evaluate the incidence of presumed endophthalmitis (EO) after intravitreal injection (IVI) of anti-vascular endothelial growth factor agents performed in the operating room. METHODS: Retrospective study at 2 Swiss eye hospitals between 2004 and 2012. Hospital records were used to identify patients treated with an IVI of an anti-vascular endothelial growth factor agent between 2004 and 2012 and those treated for EO, defined as any intraocular inflammation treated with intravitreal antibiotics. All IVIs were performed using standard sterile technique in a Swiss Class 1 operating room. No patient received preinjection topical antibiotics. Postinjection topical antibiotics were used only in one hospital. RESULTS: A total of 40,011 IVIs were performed at the 2 centers during the study period. Of the IVIs, ranibizumab was injected in 36,398 (91%), bevacizumab in 3,518 (9%), aflibercept in 89 (0.2%), and pegaptanib in 6 (<0.1%). Three cases of post-IVI presumed EO occurred, yielding a combined incidence of 0.0075% per injection (95% confidence interval: 0.0026-0.0220%) or 1 case per 13,337 IVIs. Two of the three cases of EO occurred in patients using post-IVI antibiotics. All three cases followed ranibizumab injection and were culture negative by anterior chamber tap or vitreous biopsy. CONCLUSION: The risk of EO after IVI performed under the sterile conditions of the operating room was very low.

Imaging of inflammatory and infectious lesions after injection of radioiodinated monoclonal anti-granulocytes antibodies.

Successful detection of inflammatory lesions by planar scintigraphy and SPECT after injection of iodine-123 labelled monoclonal antibodies directed against human granulocytes (123I-Mabgc) is demonstrated. This new tracer has been compared with indium-111 labelled white blood cells (111In-WBC) in selected patients with proven infectious lesions. Scans were equally positive in all cases, but the methodical advantages of the new marker were obvious, namely, there is no need for cell separation and the images of inflammatory lesions were better defined. In addition, SPECT could be performed with 123I-Mabgc and allowed a better anatomic localization and a three-dimensional description of the lesions. No adverse reactions have been seen. It is concluded, therefore, that 123I-Mabgc is a promising agent for the detection of acute focal inflammatory lesions which may, with advantages, replace 111In-WBC.

A discrete forest in a continuous landscape : investigating interactions between natural resource management and sustainable development

Summary Forests are key ecosystems of the earth and associated with a large range of functions. Many of these functions are beneficial to humans and are referred to as ecosystem services. Sustainable development requires that all relevant ecosystem services are quantified, managed and monitored equally. Natural resource management therefore targets the services associated with ecosystems. The main hypothesis of this thesis is that the spatial and temporal domains of relevant services do not correspond to a discrete forest ecosystem. As a consequence, the services are not quantified, managed and monitored in an equal and sustainable manner. The thesis aims were therefore to test this hypothesis, establish an improved conceptual approach and provide spatial applications for the relevant land cover and structure variables. The study was carried out in western Switzerland and based primarily on data from a countrywide landscape inventory. This inventory is part of the third Swiss national forest inventory and assesses continuous landscape variables based on a regular sampling of true colour aerial imagery. In addition, land cover variables were derived from Landsat 5 TM passive sensor data and land structure variables from active sensor data from a small footprint laserscanning system. The results confirmed the main hypothesis, as relevant services did not scale well with the forest ecosystem. Instead, a new conceptual approach for sustainable management of natural resources was described. This concept quantifies the services as a continuous function of the landscape, rather than a discrete function of the forest ecosystem. The explanatory landscape variables are therefore called continuous fields and the forest becomes a dependent and function-driven management unit. Continuous field mapping methods were established for land cover and structure variables. In conclusion, the discrete forest ecosystem is an adequate planning and management unit. However, monitoring the state of and trends in sustainability of services requires them to be quantified as a continuous function of the landscape. Sustainable natural resource management iteratively combines the ecosystem and gradient approaches. Résumé Les forêts sont des écosystèmes-clés de la terre et on leur attribue un grand nombre de fonctions. Beaucoup de ces fonctions sont bénéfiques pour l'homme et sont nommées services écosystémiques. Le développement durable exige que ces services écosystémiques soient tous quantifiés, gérés et surveillés de façon égale. La gestion des ressources naturelles a donc pour cible les services attribués aux écosystèmes. L'hypothèse principale de cette thèse est que les domaines spatiaux et temporels des services attribués à la forêt ne correspondent pas à un écosystème discret. Par conséquent, les services ne sont pas quantifiés, aménagés et surveillés d'une manière équivalente et durable. Les buts de la thèse étaient de tester cette hypothèse, d'établir une nouvelle approche conceptuelle de la gestion des ressources naturelles et de préparer des applications spatiales pour les variables paysagères et structurelles appropriées. L'étude a été menée en Suisse occidentale principalement sur la base d'un inventaire de paysage à l'échelon national. Cet inventaire fait partie du troisième inventaire forestier national suisse et mesure de façon continue des variables paysagères sur la base d'un échantillonnage régulier sur des photos aériennes couleur. En outre, des variables de couverture ? terrestre ont été dérivées des données d'un senseur passif Landsat 5 TM, ainsi que des variables structurelles, dérivées du laserscanning, un senseur actif. Les résultats confirment l'hypothèse principale, car l'échelle des services ne correspond pas à celle de l'écosystème forestier. Au lieu de cela, une nouvelle approche a été élaborée pour la gestion durable des ressources naturelles. Ce concept représente les services comme une fonction continue du paysage, plutôt qu'une fonction discrète de l'écosystème forestier. En conséquence, les variables explicatives de paysage sont dénommées continuous fields et la forêt devient une entité dépendante, définie par la fonction principale du paysage. Des méthodes correspondantes pour la couverture terrestre et la structure ont été élaborées. En conclusion, l'écosystème forestier discret est une unité adéquate pour la planification et la gestion. En revanche, la surveillance de la durabilité de l'état et de son évolution exige que les services soient quantifiés comme fonction continue du paysage. La gestion durable des ressources naturelles joint donc l'approche écosystémique avec celle du gradient de manière itérative.

Oral cancer treatments and adherence: medication event monitoring system assessment for capecitabine

Background: Oncological treatments are traditionally administered via intravenous injection by qualified personnel. Oral formulas which are developing rapidly are preferred by patients and facilitate administration however they may increase non-adherence. In this study 4 common oral chemotherapeutics are given to 50 patients, who are still in the process of inclusion, divided into 4 groups. The aim is to evaluate adherence and offer these patients interdisciplinary support with the joint help of doctors and pharmacists. We present here the results for capecitabine. Materials and Methods: The final goal is to evaluate adhesion in 50 patients split into 4 groups according to oral treatments (letrozole/exemestane, imatinib/sunitinib, capecitabine and temozolomide) using persistence and quality of execution as parameters. These parameters are evaluated using a medication event monitoring system (MEMS®) in addition to routine oncological visits and semi-structured interviews. Patients were monitored for the entire duration of treatment up to a maximum of 1 year. Patient satisfaction was assessed at the end of the monitoring period using a standardized questionary. Results: Capecitabine group included 2 women and 8 men with a median age of 55 years (range: 36−77 years) monitored for an average duration of 100 days (range: 5-210 days). Persistence was 98% and quality of execution 95%. 5 patients underwent cyclic treatment (2 out of 3 weeks) and 5 patients continuous treatment. Toxicities higher than grade 1 were grade 2−3 hand-foot syndrome in 1 patient and grade 3 acute coronary syndrome in 1 patient both without impact on adherence. Patients were satisfied with the interviews undergone during the study (57% useful, 28% very useful, 15% useless) and successfully integrated the MEMS® in their daily lives (57% very easily, 43% easily) according to the results obtained by questionary at the end of the monitoring period. Conclusion: Persistence and quality of execution observed in our Capecitabine group of patients were excellent and better than expected compared to previously published studies. The interdisciplinary approach allowed us to better identify and help patients with toxicities to maintain adherence. Overall patients were satisfied with the global interdisciplinary follow-up. With longer follow up better evaluation of our method and its impact will be possible. Interpretation of the results of patients in the other groups of this ongoing trial will provide us information for a more detailed analysis.

A controlled trial of the benefits of ultrasound-guided steroid injection for shoulder pain.

OBJECTIVES: We studied the value of ultrasound (US) to define shoulder pathology and guide local steroid injection in comparison with a standard injection in the management of the acute painful shoulder. METHODS: Seventy consecutive patients with acute shoulder pain were assessed clinically and by US. Patients were randomized to receive either a standard subacromial infiltration of 7 mg of betamethasone or a US-guided injection according to the US diagnosis. Follow-up evaluations were performed by an independent assessor who was blinded to the results of the initial US and clinical assessments. RESULTS: Sixty-seven patients completed the study. Both groups showed a significant reduction in both daytime and night pain compared to baseline. The US injection group had significantly less pain at rest at 2 and 6 weeks (NRS: 1.6 vs 3.3, P<0.005; 3 vs 4.2, P<0.04). The percentage of good responders was significantly higher in US group at 2 weeks, (81% vs 54%, P<0.005) and 6 weeks (64% vs 38%, P<0.05). At 2 and 6 weeks, responder rate and activity pain scores as well as Constant score were in favour of US, though did not reach statistical significance. CONCLUSION: Local steroid injection for shoulder pain leads to significant improvements in pain and function for up to 12 weeks. An US examination to define the origin of shoulder pain as well as to guide injection provides significant additional benefits for up to 6 weeks. We recommend routine US examination as part of the management of acute shoulder pain.

Continuous monitoring of cerebrovascular pressure reactivity in patients with head injury.

OBJECT: Cerebrovascular pressure reactivity is the ability of cerebral vessels to respond to changes in transmural pressure. A cerebrovascular pressure reactivity index (PRx) can be determined as the moving correlation coefficient between mean intracranial pressure (ICP) and mean arterial blood pressure. METHODS: The authors analyzed a database consisting of 398 patients with head injuries who underwent continuous monitoring of cerebrovascular pressure reactivity. In 298 patients, the PRx was compared with a transcranial Doppler ultrasonography assessment of cerebrovascular autoregulation (the mean index [Mx]), in 17 patients with the PET-assessed static rate of autoregulation, and in 22 patients with the cerebral metabolic rate for O(2). Patient outcome was assessed 6 months after injury. RESULTS: There was a positive and significant association between the PRx and Mx (R(2) = 0.36, p < 0.001) and with the static rate of autoregulation (R(2) = 0.31, p = 0.02). A PRx > 0.35 was associated with a high mortality rate (> 50%). The PRx showed significant deterioration in refractory intracranial hypertension, was correlated with outcome, and was able to differentiate patients with good outcome, moderate disability, severe disability, and death. The graph of PRx compared with cerebral perfusion pressure (CPP) indicated a U-shaped curve, suggesting that too low and too high CPP was associated with a disturbance in pressure reactivity. Such an optimal CPP was confirmed in individual cases and a greater difference between current and optimal CPP was associated with worse outcome (for patients who, on average, were treated below optimal CPP [R(2) = 0.53, p < 0.001] and for patients whose mean CPP was above optimal CPP [R(2) = -0.40, p < 0.05]). Following decompressive craniectomy, pressure reactivity initially worsened (median -0.03 [interquartile range -0.13 to 0.06] to 0.14 [interquartile range 0.12-0.22]; p < 0.01) and improved in the later postoperative course. After therapeutic hypothermia, in 17 (70.8%) of 24 patients in whom rewarming exceeded the brain temperature threshold of 37 degrees C, ICP remained stable, but the average PRx increased to 0.32 (p < 0.0001), indicating significant derangement in cerebrovascular reactivity. CONCLUSIONS: The PRx is a secondary index derived from changes in ICP and arterial blood pressure and can be used as a surrogate marker of cerebrovascular impairment. In view of an autoregulation-guided CPP therapy, a continuous determination of a PRx is feasible, but its value has to be evaluated in a prospective controlled trial.

Intracoronary injection of bone marrow-derived mononuclear cells early or late after acute myocardial infarction: effects on global left ventricular function.

BACKGROUND: Intracoronary administration of autologous bone marrow-derived mononuclear cells (BM-MNC) may improve remodeling of the left ventricle (LV) after acute myocardial infarction. The optimal time point of administration of BM-MNC is still uncertain and has rarely been addressed prospectively in randomized clinical trials. METHODS AND RESULTS: In a multicenter study, we randomized 200 patients with large, successfully reperfused ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction in a 1:1:1 pattern into an open-labeled control and 2 BM-MNC treatment groups. In the BM-MNC groups, cells were administered either early (ie, 5 to 7 days) or late (ie, 3 to 4 weeks) after acute myocardial infarction. Cardiac magnetic resonance imaging was performed at baseline and after 4 months. The primary end point was the change from baseline to 4 months in global LV ejection fraction between the 2 treatment groups and the control group. The absolute change in LV ejection fraction from baseline to 4 months was -0.4±8.8% (mean±SD; P=0.74 versus baseline) in the control group, 1.8±8.4% (P=0.12 versus baseline) in the early group, and 0.8±7.6% (P=0.45 versus baseline) in the late group. The treatment effect of BM-MNC as estimated by ANCOVA was 1.25 (95% confidence interval, -1.83 to 4.32; P=0.42) for the early therapy group and 0.55 (95% confidence interval, -2.61 to 3.71; P=0.73) for the late therapy group. CONCLUSIONS: Among patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction and LV dysfunction after successful reperfusion, intracoronary infusion of BM-MNC at either 5 to 7 days or 3 to 4 weeks after acute myocardial infarction did not improve LV function at 4-month follow-up. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT00355186.

Human endometrial carcinomas serially transplanted in nude mice and established in continuous cell lines.

Three out of five human endometrial carcinomas were successfully grafted into nude mice (BALB/c/nu/nu). Two of these tumors could be maintained by serial transplantation. The morphological characteristics displayed by the grafted tumors were comparable to those of the original carcinomas. Permanent cell lines were established from these two tumors. Reinjection of cells grown in vitro into nude mice produced nodules of identical histology as compared to original solid transplants. The influence of medroxyprogesterone acetate on tumor growth in vivo and cell proliferation in vitro was studied. This hormonal treatment did not produce any significant effect on tumor cells, either in vitro or in vivo, for the two endometrial carcinomas. After medroxyprogesterone administration, a slight but non-significant growth inhibition of the tumor cells in vitro was observed and the tumor transplants in vivo did not appear to be influenced. The experiments illustrate the possible use of this model for testing potential anti-cancer agents.

Role of amoxicillin serum levels for successful prophylaxis of experimental endocarditis due to tolerant streptococci.

The importance of amoxicillin serum profiles for successful prophylaxis of experimental endocarditis in rats was assessed. Animals with catheter-induced vegetations were challenged intravenously with large inocula of Streptococcus sanguis and received one of the following amoxicillin dosages: single or multiple bolus injection of 40 mg/kg; 40 mg/kg administered as a continuous infusion over 12 h; or either 9 or 18 mg/kg administered over 12 or 24 h, respectively. The regimen producing a single transient high peak serum level failed to prevent experimental endocarditis; in contrast, a second injection 6 h after the first resulted in successful prophylaxis. Likewise, the three regimens of continuous, relatively low-dose regimens prevented infections. Thus, the most important parameter for successful prophylaxis was the duration of inhibitory concentration of the drug in the serum. The total dose of antibiotic, the peak serum levels, or the area-under-the-curve values were not predictive of successful prophylaxis.

A pilot study of delayed versus immediate serial casting after botulinum toxin injection for partially reducible spastic equinus.

BACKGROUND: Serial casting is often prescribed after botulinum toxin injections to improve joint ranges of motion and to potentiate the decrease in hypertonia. The aim of this study was to compare delayed versus immediate serial casting as an adjunct to botulinum toxin therapy for partially reducible spastic equinus. METHODS: Twelve children who presented spastic equinus associated with mild gastrosoleus contracture took part. Five of them had a diagnosis of spastic diplegia, whereas 7 had a diagnosis of congenital hemiplegia. Children were randomized to immediate serial casting (same day) or delayed serial casting (4 weeks later) after botulinum toxin injection to their gastrosolei. Casts were replaced weekly for 3 weeks. RESULTS: Three children complained of pain that required recasting in the immediate casting group versus none in the delayed casting group (P = 0.08). At 3 months, there was a 27-degree improvement in the fast dorsiflexion angle (Tardieu R1) in the delayed casting group versus 17 degrees in the immediate casting group (P = 0.029). At 6 months, a 19-degree improvement persisted in the delayed group compared with 11 degrees in the immediate group (P = 0.010). CONCLUSIONS: There is a clear benefit in delaying serial casting after the injection of botulinum toxin in the recurrence of spasticity at the gastrosoleus that may also offer an advantage regarding the incidence of painful episodes associated with casting. Most importantly, reducing the recurrence of spasticity by delayed serial casting may offer the possibility of decreasing the frequency of botulinum toxin reinjections.

How to confirm C.E.R.A. doping in athletes' blood?

C.E.R.A. (Continuous Erythropoietin Receptor Activator) is a new third-generation erythropoiesis-stimulating agent that has recently been linked with abuse in endurance sports. The anti-doping community rapidly reacted by releasing a high-throughput screening ELISA allowing the detection of C.E.R.A. doping in athletes' blood. In order to return adverse analytical findings, anti-doping laboratories, however, need, as far as possible, to confirm the presence of the drug in athletes' samples through orthogonal methods. This article focuses on the comparison of 2 proposed confirmation assays based on gel electrophoresis that were coupled with a new sample immunopurification method. IEF, the classical method used to target erythropoietin (EPO) and its recombinant analogues in athletes' samples, and SARKOSYL-PAGE were applied to the plasma samples of subjects having received a single injection of C.E.R.A. It was demonstrated that SARKOSYL-PAGE was at least 6 times more sensitive than IEF, with comparable specificity. A longer detection window coupled with easier interpretation criteria led us to recommend the use of SARKOSYL-PAGE to confirm C.E.R.A. presence in athletes' blood.

Nasal trauma due to continuous positive airway pressure in neonates.

PATIENTS: All neonates admitted between January 2002 and December 2007 treated by nCPAP were eligible. METHODS: Patients' noses were monitored during nCPAP. Nasal trauma was reported into three stages: (I) persistent erythema; (II) superficial ulceration; and (III) necrosis. RESULTS: 989 neonates were enrolled. Mean gestational age was 34 weeks (SD 4), mean birth weight 2142 g (SD 840). Nasal trauma was reported in 420 (42.5%) patients and it was of stage I, II and III in 371 (88.3%), 46 (11%) and 3 (0.7%) patients, respectively. Incidence and severity of trauma were inversely correlated with gestational age and birth weight. The risk of nasal trauma was greater in neonates <32 weeks of gestational age (OR 2.48, 95% CI 1.59 to 3.86), weighing <1500 g at birth (OR 2.28, 95% CI 1.43 to 3.64), treated >5 days by nCPAP (OR 5.36, 95% CI 3.82 to 7.52), or staying >14 days in the NICU (OR 1.67, 95% CI 1.22 to 2.28). Most cases of nasal trauma (90%) appeared during the first 6 days of nCPAP. Persistent visible scars were present in two cases. CONCLUSIONS: Nasal trauma is a frequent complication of nCPAP, especially in preterm neonates, but long-term cosmetic sequelae are very rare. This study provides a description of nasal trauma and proposes a simple staging system. This could serve as a basis to develop strategies of prevention and treatment of this iatrogenic event.