Species distribution models for conservation-oriented studies in Switzerland : filling data and tools gaps

SUMMARYSpecies distribution models (SDMs) represent nowadays an essential tool in the research fields of ecology and conservation biology. By combining observations of species occurrence or abundance with information on the environmental characteristic of the observation sites, they can provide information on the ecology of species, predict their distributions across the landscape or extrapolate them to other spatial or time frames. The advent of SDMs, supported by geographic information systems (GIS), new developments in statistical models and constantly increasing computational capacities, has revolutionized the way ecologists can comprehend species distributions in their environment. SDMs have brought the tool that allows describing species realized niches across a multivariate environmental space and predict their spatial distribution. Predictions, in the form of probabilistic maps showing the potential distribution of the species, are an irreplaceable mean to inform every single unit of a territory about its biodiversity potential. SDMs and the corresponding spatial predictions can be used to plan conservation actions for particular species, to design field surveys, to assess the risks related to the spread of invasive species, to select reserve locations and design reserve networks, and ultimately, to forecast distributional changes according to scenarios of climate and/or land use change.By assessing the effect of several factors on model performance and on the accuracy of spatial predictions, this thesis aims at improving techniques and data available for distribution modelling and at providing the best possible information to conservation managers to support their decisions and action plans for the conservation of biodiversity in Switzerland and beyond. Several monitoring programs have been put in place from the national to the global scale, and different sources of data now exist and start to be available to researchers who want to model species distribution. However, because of the lack of means, data are often not gathered at an appropriate resolution, are sampled only over limited areas, are not spatially explicit or do not provide a sound biological information. A typical example of this is data on 'habitat' (sensu biota). Even though this is essential information for an effective conservation planning, it often has to be approximated from land use, the closest available information. Moreover, data are often not sampled according to an established sampling design, which can lead to biased samples and consequently to spurious modelling results. Understanding the sources of variability linked to the different phases of the modelling process and their importance is crucial in order to evaluate the final distribution maps that are to be used for conservation purposes.The research presented in this thesis was essentially conducted within the framework of the Landspot Project, a project supported by the Swiss National Science Foundation. The main goal of the project was to assess the possible contribution of pre-modelled 'habitat' units to model the distribution of animal species, in particular butterfly species, across Switzerland. While pursuing this goal, different aspects of data quality, sampling design and modelling process were addressed and improved, and implications for conservation discussed. The main 'habitat' units considered in this thesis are grassland and forest communities of natural and anthropogenic origin as defined in the typology of habitats for Switzerland. These communities are mainly defined at the phytosociological level of the alliance. For the time being, no comprehensive map of such communities is available at the national scale and at fine resolution. As a first step, it was therefore necessary to create distribution models and maps for these communities across Switzerland and thus to gather and collect the necessary data. In order to reach this first objective, several new developments were necessary such as the definition of expert models, the classification of the Swiss territory in environmental domains, the design of an environmentally stratified sampling of the target vegetation units across Switzerland, the development of a database integrating a decision-support system assisting in the classification of the relevés, and the downscaling of the land use/cover data from 100 m to 25 m resolution.The main contributions of this thesis to the discipline of species distribution modelling (SDM) are assembled in four main scientific papers. In the first, published in Journal of Riogeography different issues related to the modelling process itself are investigated. First is assessed the effect of five different stepwise selection methods on model performance, stability and parsimony, using data of the forest inventory of State of Vaud. In the same paper are also assessed: the effect of weighting absences to ensure a prevalence of 0.5 prior to model calibration; the effect of limiting absences beyond the environmental envelope defined by presences; four different methods for incorporating spatial autocorrelation; and finally, the effect of integrating predictor interactions. Results allowed to specifically enhance the GRASP tool (Generalized Regression Analysis and Spatial Predictions) that now incorporates new selection methods and the possibility of dealing with interactions among predictors as well as spatial autocorrelation. The contribution of different sources of remotely sensed information to species distribution models was also assessed. The second paper (to be submitted) explores the combined effects of sample size and data post-stratification on the accuracy of models using data on grassland distribution across Switzerland collected within the framework of the Landspot project and supplemented with other important vegetation databases. For the stratification of the data, different spatial frameworks were compared. In particular, environmental stratification by Swiss Environmental Domains was compared to geographical stratification either by biogeographic regions or political states (cantons). The third paper (to be submitted) assesses the contribution of pre- modelled vegetation communities to the modelling of fauna. It is a two-steps approach that combines the disciplines of community ecology and spatial ecology and integrates their corresponding concepts of habitat. First are modelled vegetation communities per se and then these 'habitat' units are used in order to model animal species habitat. A case study is presented with grassland communities and butterfly species. Different ways of integrating vegetation information in the models of butterfly distribution were also evaluated. Finally, a glimpse to climate change is given in the fourth paper, recently published in Ecological Modelling. This paper proposes a conceptual framework for analysing range shifts, namely a catalogue of the possible patterns of change in the distribution of a species along elevational or other environmental gradients and an improved quantitative methodology to identify and objectively describe these patterns. The methodology was developed using data from the Swiss national common breeding bird survey and the article presents results concerning the observed shifts in the elevational distribution of breeding birds in Switzerland.The overall objective of this thesis is to improve species distribution models as potential inputs for different conservation tools (e.g. red lists, ecological networks, risk assessment of the spread of invasive species, vulnerability assessment in the context of climate change). While no conservation issues or tools are directly tested in this thesis, the importance of the proposed improvements made in species distribution modelling is discussed in the context of the selection of reserve networks.RESUMELes modèles de distribution d'espèces (SDMs) représentent aujourd'hui un outil essentiel dans les domaines de recherche de l'écologie et de la biologie de la conservation. En combinant les observations de la présence des espèces ou de leur abondance avec des informations sur les caractéristiques environnementales des sites d'observation, ces modèles peuvent fournir des informations sur l'écologie des espèces, prédire leur distribution à travers le paysage ou l'extrapoler dans l'espace et le temps. Le déploiement des SDMs, soutenu par les systèmes d'information géographique (SIG), les nouveaux développements dans les modèles statistiques, ainsi que la constante augmentation des capacités de calcul, a révolutionné la façon dont les écologistes peuvent comprendre la distribution des espèces dans leur environnement. Les SDMs ont apporté l'outil qui permet de décrire la niche réalisée des espèces dans un espace environnemental multivarié et prédire leur distribution spatiale. Les prédictions, sous forme de carte probabilistes montrant la distribution potentielle de l'espèce, sont un moyen irremplaçable d'informer chaque unité du territoire de sa biodiversité potentielle. Les SDMs et les prédictions spatiales correspondantes peuvent être utilisés pour planifier des mesures de conservation pour des espèces particulières, pour concevoir des plans d'échantillonnage, pour évaluer les risques liés à la propagation d'espèces envahissantes, pour choisir l'emplacement de réserves et les mettre en réseau, et finalement, pour prévoir les changements de répartition en fonction de scénarios de changement climatique et/ou d'utilisation du sol. En évaluant l'effet de plusieurs facteurs sur la performance des modèles et sur la précision des prédictions spatiales, cette thèse vise à améliorer les techniques et les données disponibles pour la modélisation de la distribution des espèces et à fournir la meilleure information possible aux gestionnaires pour appuyer leurs décisions et leurs plans d'action pour la conservation de la biodiversité en Suisse et au-delà. Plusieurs programmes de surveillance ont été mis en place de l'échelle nationale à l'échelle globale, et différentes sources de données sont désormais disponibles pour les chercheurs qui veulent modéliser la distribution des espèces. Toutefois, en raison du manque de moyens, les données sont souvent collectées à une résolution inappropriée, sont échantillonnées sur des zones limitées, ne sont pas spatialement explicites ou ne fournissent pas une information écologique suffisante. Un exemple typique est fourni par les données sur 'l'habitat' (sensu biota). Même s'il s'agit d'une information essentielle pour des mesures de conservation efficaces, elle est souvent approximée par l'utilisation du sol, l'information qui s'en approche le plus. En outre, les données ne sont souvent pas échantillonnées selon un plan d'échantillonnage établi, ce qui biaise les échantillons et par conséquent les résultats de la modélisation. Comprendre les sources de variabilité liées aux différentes phases du processus de modélisation s'avère crucial afin d'évaluer l'utilisation des cartes de distribution prédites à des fins de conservation.La recherche présentée dans cette thèse a été essentiellement menée dans le cadre du projet Landspot, un projet soutenu par le Fond National Suisse pour la Recherche. L'objectif principal de ce projet était d'évaluer la contribution d'unités 'd'habitat' pré-modélisées pour modéliser la répartition des espèces animales, notamment de papillons, à travers la Suisse. Tout en poursuivant cet objectif, différents aspects touchant à la qualité des données, au plan d'échantillonnage et au processus de modélisation sont abordés et améliorés, et leurs implications pour la conservation des espèces discutées. Les principaux 'habitats' considérés dans cette thèse sont des communautés de prairie et de forêt d'origine naturelle et anthropique telles que définies dans la typologie des habitats de Suisse. Ces communautés sont principalement définies au niveau phytosociologique de l'alliance. Pour l'instant aucune carte de la distribution de ces communautés n'est disponible à l'échelle nationale et à résolution fine. Dans un premier temps, il a donc été nécessaire de créer des modèles de distribution de ces communautés à travers la Suisse et par conséquent de recueillir les données nécessaires. Afin d'atteindre ce premier objectif, plusieurs nouveaux développements ont été nécessaires, tels que la définition de modèles experts, la classification du territoire suisse en domaines environnementaux, la conception d'un échantillonnage environnementalement stratifié des unités de végétation cibles dans toute la Suisse, la création d'une base de données intégrant un système d'aide à la décision pour la classification des relevés, et le « downscaling » des données de couverture du sol de 100 m à 25 m de résolution. Les principales contributions de cette thèse à la discipline de la modélisation de la distribution d'espèces (SDM) sont rassemblées dans quatre articles scientifiques. Dans le premier article, publié dans le Journal of Biogeography, différentes questions liées au processus de modélisation sont étudiées en utilisant les données de l'inventaire forestier de l'Etat de Vaud. Tout d'abord sont évalués les effets de cinq méthodes de sélection pas-à-pas sur la performance, la stabilité et la parcimonie des modèles. Dans le même article sont également évalués: l'effet de la pondération des absences afin d'assurer une prévalence de 0.5 lors de la calibration du modèle; l'effet de limiter les absences au-delà de l'enveloppe définie par les présences; quatre méthodes différentes pour l'intégration de l'autocorrélation spatiale; et enfin, l'effet de l'intégration d'interactions entre facteurs. Les résultats présentés dans cet article ont permis d'améliorer l'outil GRASP qui intègre désonnais de nouvelles méthodes de sélection et la possibilité de traiter les interactions entre variables explicatives, ainsi que l'autocorrélation spatiale. La contribution de différentes sources de données issues de la télédétection a également été évaluée. Le deuxième article (en voie de soumission) explore les effets combinés de la taille de l'échantillon et de la post-stratification sur le la précision des modèles. Les données utilisées ici sont celles concernant la répartition des prairies de Suisse recueillies dans le cadre du projet Landspot et complétées par d'autres sources. Pour la stratification des données, différents cadres spatiaux ont été comparés. En particulier, la stratification environnementale par les domaines environnementaux de Suisse a été comparée à la stratification géographique par les régions biogéographiques ou par les cantons. Le troisième article (en voie de soumission) évalue la contribution de communautés végétales pré-modélisées à la modélisation de la faune. C'est une approche en deux étapes qui combine les disciplines de l'écologie des communautés et de l'écologie spatiale en intégrant leurs concepts de 'habitat' respectifs. Les communautés végétales sont modélisées d'abord, puis ces unités de 'habitat' sont utilisées pour modéliser les espèces animales. Une étude de cas est présentée avec des communautés prairiales et des espèces de papillons. Différentes façons d'intégrer l'information sur la végétation dans les modèles de répartition des papillons sont évaluées. Enfin, un clin d'oeil aux changements climatiques dans le dernier article, publié dans Ecological Modelling. Cet article propose un cadre conceptuel pour l'analyse des changements dans la distribution des espèces qui comprend notamment un catalogue des différentes formes possibles de changement le long d'un gradient d'élévation ou autre gradient environnemental, et une méthode quantitative améliorée pour identifier et décrire ces déplacements. Cette méthodologie a été développée en utilisant des données issues du monitoring des oiseaux nicheurs répandus et l'article présente les résultats concernant les déplacements observés dans la distribution altitudinale des oiseaux nicheurs en Suisse.L'objectif général de cette thèse est d'améliorer les modèles de distribution des espèces en tant que source d'information possible pour les différents outils de conservation (par exemple, listes rouges, réseaux écologiques, évaluation des risques de propagation d'espèces envahissantes, évaluation de la vulnérabilité des espèces dans le contexte de changement climatique). Bien que ces questions de conservation ne soient pas directement testées dans cette thèse, l'importance des améliorations proposées pour la modélisation de la distribution des espèces est discutée à la fin de ce travail dans le contexte de la sélection de réseaux de réserves.

Coronary heart disease in primary care: accuracy of medical history and physical findings in patients with chest pain - a study protocol for a systematic review with individual patient data.

BACKGROUND: Chest pain is a common complaint in primary care, with coronary heart disease (CHD) being the most concerning of many potential causes. Systematic reviews on the sensitivity and specificity of symptoms and signs summarize the evidence about which of them are most useful in making a diagnosis. Previous meta-analyses are dominated by studies of patients referred to specialists. Moreover, as the analysis is typically based on study-level data, the statistical analyses in these reviews are limited while meta-analyses based on individual patient data can provide additional information. Our patient-level meta-analysis has three unique aims. First, we strive to determine the diagnostic accuracy of symptoms and signs for myocardial ischemia in primary care. Second, we investigate associations between study- or patient-level characteristics and measures of diagnostic accuracy. Third, we aim to validate existing clinical prediction rules for diagnosing myocardial ischemia in primary care. This article describes the methods of our study and six prospective studies of primary care patients with chest pain. Later articles will describe the main results. METHODS/DESIGN: We will conduct a systematic review and IPD meta-analysis of studies evaluating the diagnostic accuracy of symptoms and signs for diagnosing coronary heart disease in primary care. We will perform bivariate analyses to determine the sensitivity, specificity and likelihood ratios of individual symptoms and signs and multivariate analyses to explore the diagnostic value of an optimal combination of all symptoms and signs based on all data of all studies. We will validate existing clinical prediction rules from each of the included studies by calculating measures of diagnostic accuracy separately by study. DISCUSSION: Our study will face several methodological challenges. First, the number of studies will be limited. Second, the investigators of original studies defined some outcomes and predictors differently. Third, the studies did not collect the same standard clinical data set. Fourth, missing data, varying from partly missing to fully missing, will have to be dealt with.Despite these limitations, we aim to summarize the available evidence regarding the diagnostic accuracy of symptoms and signs for diagnosing CHD in patients presenting with chest pain in primary care. REVIEW REGISTRATION: Centre for Reviews and Dissemination (University of York): CRD42011001170.

Relating the permeability of quartz sands to their grain size and spectral induced polarization characteristics

Recently, Revil & Florsch proposed a novel mechanistic model based on the polarization of the Stern layer relating the permeability of granular media to their spectral induced polarization (SIP) characteristics based on the formation of polarized cells around individual grains. To explore the practical validity of this model, we compare it to pertinent laboratory measurements on samples of quartz sands with a wide range of granulometric characteristics. In particular, we measure the hydraulic and SIP characteristics of all samples both in their loose, non-compacted and compacted states, which might allow for the detection of polarization processes that are independent of the grain size. We first verify the underlying grain size/permeability relationship upon which the model of Revil & Florsch is based and then proceed to compare the observed and predicted permeability values for our samples by substituting the grain size characteristics by corresponding SIP parameters, notably the so-called Cole-Cole time constant. In doing so, we also asses the quantitative impact of an observed shift in the Cole-Cole time constant related to textural variations in the samples and observe that changes related to the compaction of the samples are not relevant for the corresponding permeability predictions. We find that the proposed model does indeed provide an adequate prediction of the overall trend of the observed permeability values, but underestimates their actual values by approximately one order-of-magnitude. This discrepancy in turn points to the potential importance of phenomena, which are currently not accounted for in the model and which tend to reduce the characteristic size of the prevailing polarization cells compared to the considered model, such as, for example, membrane polarization, contacts of double-layers of neighbouring grains, and incorrect estimation of the size of the polarized cells because of the irregularity of natural sand grains.

Accuracy of sentinel lymph node dissection for melanoma staging in the presence of a collision tumour with a lymphoproliferative disease.

Sentinel lymph node dissection (SLND) identifies melanoma patients with metastatic disease who would benefit from radical lymph node dissection (RLND). Rarely, patients with melanoma have an underlying lymphoproliferative disease, and melanoma metastases might develop as collision tumours in the sentinel lymph node (SLN). The aim of this study was to measure the incidence and examine the effect of collision tumours on the accuracy of SLND and on the validity of staging in this setting. Between 1998 and 2012, 750 consecutive SLNDs were performed in melanoma patients using the triple technique (lymphoscintigraphy, gamma probe and blue dye). The validity of SLND in collision tumours was analysed. False negativity was reflected by the disease-free survival. The literature was reviewed on collision tumours in melanoma. Collision tumours of melanoma and chronic lymphocytic leukaemia (CLL) were found in two SLN and in one RLND (0.4%). Subsequent RLNDs of SLND-positive cases were negative for melanoma. The patient with negative SLND developed relapse after 28 months with an inguinal lymph node metastasis of melanoma; RLND showed collision tumours. The literature review identified 12 cases of collision tumours. CLL was associated with increased melanoma incidence and reduced overall survival. This is, to our knowledge, the first assessment of the clinical value of SLND when collision tumours of melanoma and CLL are found. In this small series of three patients with both malignancies present in the same lymph node basin, lymphocytic infiltration of the CLL did not alter radioisotope uptake into the SLN. No false-negative result was observed. Our data suggest the validity of SLND in collision tumours, but given the rarity of the problem, further studies are necessary to confirm this reliability.

Structural prediction of peptides bound to MHC class I.

An ab initio structure prediction approach adapted to the peptide-major histocompatibility complex (MHC) class I system is presented. Based on structure comparisons of a large set of peptide-MHC class I complexes, a molecular dynamics protocol is proposed using simulated annealing (SA) cycles to sample the conformational space of the peptide in its fixed MHC environment. A set of 14 peptide-human leukocyte antigen (HLA) A0201 and 27 peptide-non-HLA A0201 complexes for which X-ray structures are available is used to test the accuracy of the prediction method. For each complex, 1000 peptide conformers are obtained from the SA sampling. A graph theory clustering algorithm based on heavy atom root-mean-square deviation (RMSD) values is applied to the sampled conformers. The clusters are ranked using cluster size, mean effective or conformational free energies, with solvation free energies computed using Generalized Born MV 2 (GB-MV2) and Poisson-Boltzmann (PB) continuum models. The final conformation is chosen as the center of the best-ranked cluster. With conformational free energies, the overall prediction success is 83% using a 1.00 Angstroms crystal RMSD criterion for main-chain atoms, and 76% using a 1.50 Angstroms RMSD criterion for heavy atoms. The prediction success is even higher for the set of 14 peptide-HLA A0201 complexes: 100% of the peptides have main-chain RMSD values < or =1.00 Angstroms and 93% of the peptides have heavy atom RMSD values < or =1.50 Angstroms. This structure prediction method can be applied to complexes of natural or modified antigenic peptides in their MHC environment with the aim to perform rational structure-based optimizations of tumor vaccines.

The correlation between inbreeding and fitness: does allele size matter?

The availability of highly polymorphic genetic markers, in particular microsatellites, has made it possible to test the effect of inbreeding on fitness in the field and in the absence of pedigree information. It has been suggested that the squared difference in allele size at a locus (d(2)) might be a better indicator of the level of inbreeding than is heterozygosity. Using an elegant new analytical model, Tsitrone et al. now put this idea to the test, and to rest.

On dome-shaped norms of reaction for size-to-age at maturity in fishes

The optimal size-to-age at maturity depends on growth and mortality rates, which vary with environment. Therefore, organisms in spatially or temporaly changing environments should develop adaptative phenotypic plasticity for this trait. Experimental work by Alm (1959) on several fish species shows a dome-shape norm of reaction for size-to-age at maturity: size at maturity is smaller in both fast-growing and slow-growing fishes, than it is in fish with a medium growth rate. Using computer simulations, we show that such a dome-shaped norm of reaction is optimal when assuming a finite life span and a negative relationship between production and survival rates. This latter assumption is supported by empirical data, as well as by physiological and emographic arguments.

Extent of Hypoattenuation On CT Angiography Source Images In Basilar Artery Occlusion: Prognostic Accuracy Of Posterior Circulation ASPECTS And The Pons-midbrain Score In The Basilar Artery International Cooperation Study

Background: The posterior circulation Acute Stroke Prognosis Early CT Score (pc-ASPECTS) and the combined Pons-midbrain score quantify the extent of early ischemic changes in the posterior circulation. We compared the prognostic accuracy of both scores if applied to CT angiography (CTA) source images (CTA-SI) of patients in the Basilar Artery International Cooperation Study (BASICS).Methods: BASICS was a prospective, observational, multi-centre, registry of consecutive patients who presented with acute symptomatic basilar artery occlusion (BAO). Functional outcome was assessed at 1 month. We applied pc-ASPECTS and the combined Pons-midbrain score to CTA-SI by 3-reader-consensus. Readers were blinded to clinical data. We performed multivariable logistic regression analysis, adjusting for thrombolysis, baseline NIHSS score and age, and used the output to derive ROC curves to compare the ability of both scores to discriminate patients with favourable (modified Rankin Scale [mRS] scores 0-3) from patients with unfavourable (mRS scores 4-6) functional outcome.Results: We reviewed CTAs of 158 patients (64% men, mean age 65 _ 15 years, median NIHSS score 25 [0-38], median GCS score 7 [3-15], median onset-to-CTA time 234 minutes [11-7380]). At 1 month, 40 (25%) patients had a favourable outcome, 49 (31%) had an unfavourable outcome (mRS score 4-5) and 69 (44%) were deceased. Both techniques of assessing CTA-SI hypoattenuation in the posterior circulation showed equally good discriminative value in predicting final outcome (C-statistics; area under ROC curve 0.74 versus 0.75, respectively; p_0.37). Pc-ASPECTS dichotomized at _6 versus _6 was an independent predictor of favourable functional outcome (RR _ 2.2; CI95 1.1-4.7; p _ 0.034).Conclusion: Compared to the combined Pons-midbrain score, the pc-ASPECTS score has similar prognostic accuracy to identify patients with a favourable functional outcome in BASICS. Dichotomized pc-ASPECTS (_6 versus _6) is an independent predictor of favourable functional outcome in this population. Author Disclosures: V. Puetz: None. A. Khomenko: None. M.D. Hill: None. I. Dzialowski: None. P. Michel: None. C. Weimar: None. C.A.C. Wijman: None. H. Mattle: None. K. Muir: None. T. Pfefferkorn: None. D. Tanne: None. S. Engelter: None. K. Szabo: None. A. Algra: None. A.M. Demchuk: None. W.J. Schonewille: None.

Some solutions to obtain very efficient separations in isocratic and gradient modes using small particles size and ultra-high pressure.

The UHPLC strategy which combines sub-2 microm porous particles and ultra-high pressure (>1000 bar) was investigated considering very high resolution criteria in both isocratic and gradient modes, with mobile phase temperatures between 30 and 90 degrees C. In isocratic mode, experimental conditions to reach the maximal efficiency were determined using the kinetic plot representation for DeltaP(max)=1000 bar. It has been first confirmed that the molecular weight of the compounds (MW) was a critical parameter which should be considered in the construction of such curves. With a MW around 1000 g mol(-1), efficiencies as high as 300,000 plates could be theoretically attained using UHPLC at 30 degrees C. By limiting the column length to 450 mm, the maximal plate count was around 100,000. In gradient mode, the longest column does not provide the maximal peak capacity for a given analysis time in UHPLC. This was attributed to the fact that peak capacity is not only related to the plate number but also to column dead time. Therefore, a compromise should be found and a 150 mm column should be preferentially selected for gradient lengths up to 60 min at 30 degrees C, while the columns coupled in series (3x 150 mm) were attractive only for t(grad)>250 min. Compared to 30 degrees C, peak capacities were increased by about 20-30% for a constant gradient length at 90 degrees C and gradient time decreased by 2-fold for an identical peak capacity.

Genetic and environmental components of phenotypic variation in immune response and body size of a colonial bird, Delichon urbica (the house martin).

Directional selection for parasite resistance is often intense in highly social host species. Using a partial cross-fostering experiment we studied environmental and genetic variation in immune response and morphology in a highly colonial bird species, the house martin (Delichon urbica). We manipulated intensity of infestation of house martin nests by the haematophagous parasitic house martin bug Oeciacus hirundinis either by spraying nests with a weak pesticide or by inoculating them with 50 bugs. Parasitism significantly affected tarsus length, T cell response, immunoglobulin and leucocyte concentrations. We found evidence of strong environmental effects on nestling body mass, body condition, wing length and tarsus length, and evidence of significant additive genetic variance for wing length and haematocrit. We found significant environmental variance, but no significant additive genetic variance in immune response parameters such as T cell response to the antigenic phytohemagglutinin, immunoglobulins, and relative and absolute numbers of leucocytes. Environmental variances were generally greater than additive genetic variances, and the low heritabilities of phenotypic traits were mainly a consequence of large environmental variances and small additive genetic variances. Hence, highly social bird species such as the house martin, which are subject to intense selection by parasites, have a limited scope for immediate microevolutionary response to selection because of low heritabilities, but also a limited scope for long-term response to selection because evolvability as indicated by small additive genetic coefficients of variation is weak.

Optimization of spatial resolution for peripheral magnetic resonance angiography.

RATIONALE AND OBJECTIVES: To determine optimum spatial resolution when imaging peripheral arteries with magnetic resonance angiography (MRA). MATERIALS AND METHODS: Eight vessel diameters ranging from 1.0 to 8.0 mm were simulated in a vascular phantom. A total of 40 three-dimensional flash MRA sequences were acquired with incremental variations of fields of view, matrix size, and slice thickness. The accurately known eight diameters were combined pairwise to generate 22 "exact" degrees of stenosis ranging from 42% to 87%. Then, the diameters were measured in the MRA images by three independent observers and with quantitative angiography (QA) software and used to compute the degrees of stenosis corresponding to the 22 "exact" ones. The accuracy and reproducibility of vessel diameter measurements and stenosis calculations were assessed for vessel size ranging from 6 to 8 mm (iliac artery), 4 to 5 mm (femoro-popliteal arteries), and 1 to 3 mm (infrapopliteal arteries). Maximum pixel dimension and slice thickness to obtain a mean error in stenosis evaluation of less than 10% were determined by linear regression analysis. RESULTS: Mean errors on stenosis quantification were 8.8% +/- 6.3% for 6- to 8-mm vessels, 15.5% +/- 8.2% for 4- to 5-mm vessels, and 18.9% +/- 7.5% for 1- to 3-mm vessels. Mean errors on stenosis calculation were 12.3% +/- 8.2% for observers and 11.4% +/- 15.1% for QA software (P = .0342). To evaluate stenosis with a mean error of less than 10%, maximum pixel surface, the pixel size in the phase direction, and the slice thickness should be less than 1.56 mm2, 1.34 mm, 1.70 mm, respectively (voxel size 2.65 mm3) for 6- to 8-mm vessels; 1.31 mm2, 1.10 mm, 1.34 mm (voxel size 1.76 mm3), for 4- to 5-mm vessels; and 1.17 mm2, 0.90 mm, 0.9 mm (voxel size 1.05 mm3) for 1- to 3-mm vessels. CONCLUSION: Higher spatial resolution than currently used should be selected for imaging peripheral vessels.

Managing the size of the Olympic Games

The last two decades have seen dramatic increases in the size and scope of the Summer Olympic Games. In many ways, London 2012 reached even higher summits than the Beijing Games in 2008. This growth is a major challenge for the Olympics and its future organizers, as it is making the Games increasingly difficult to stage and has greatly reduced the number of cities capable of hosting them. This study shows how various participation and organization indicators have expanded over six Olympiads, from Barcelona 1992 to London 2012, and examines the reasons for this growth. It suggests ways of reducing the size of the Summer Olympic Games in order to make them more manageable and to encourage candidatures from smaller cities and countries.

Substitution rates at neutral genes depend on population size under fluctuating demography and overlapping generations.

It is widely accepted that the rate of evolution (substitution rate) at neutral genes is unaffected by population size fluctuations. This result has implications for the analysis of genetic data in population genetics and phylogenetics, and provides, in particular, a justification for the concept of the molecular clock. Here, we show that the substitution rate at neutral genes does depend on population size fluctuations in the presence of overlapping generations. As both population size fluctuations and overlapping generations are expected to be the norm rather than the exception in natural populations, this observation may be relevant for understanding variation in substitution rates within and between lineages.

Diagnostic accuracy of free and total metanephrines in plasma and fractionated metanephrines in urine of patients with pheochromocytoma.

BACKGROUND: Plasma free and urinary metanephrines are recognized biomarkers for the assessment of pheochromocytoma. Plasma total metanephrines with a long half-life may represent another useful biomarker. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study is to evaluate the diagnostic performances of plasma total metanephrines alone or combined with free metanephrines and fractionated 24-h urinary metanephrines. METHODS: A retrospective, case-control diagnostic test study was conducted between 1999 and 2007 in two university hospitals in Switzerland and two institutions in France. The patients included 46 cases with histologically proven pheochromocytoma, and 181 controls suspected of tumor with negative investigations and 3-year follow-up. None had renal dysfunction. Sensitivity and specificity were compared after expressing each measurement result as a ratio over its upper reference limit, adding the ratios of normetanephrine and metanephrine, and defining cut-off values of 1 or 2 for this sum. RESULTS: Applying a cut-off value of 1, plasma free and total metanephrines and urinary fractionated metanephrines had similar sensitivities of 96% (95% confidence interval, 86-99%), 95% (85-99%), and 95% (84-99%) along with similar specificities of 89% (83-94%), 91% (84-95%), and 86% (80-91%). A cut-off of 2 for the sum of ratios over reference limit improves the specificity, and it can be used for a confirmation test based on another biomarker taken among the three biomarkers. CONCLUSION: All three metanephrine-based tests perform equivalently for diagnosing pheochromocytoma in the absence of renal insufficiency, and can be conveniently associated two by two for confirming/excluding tumor.